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16th July, 25
Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum
Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum Everyone loves a good free preview, but not all of the bond market enjoyed today's version. It involved reports that Trump was considering firing Powell. Forget the nitty gritty details because markets took it very seriously if volume is any indication (highest since tariff announcement week in April). Those who pay close attention were not-at-all-surprised to see longer-term yields RISING in response. After all, a more dovish Fed could only directly control overnight rates. This is enough to maybe help 2yr Treasuries and under, but
Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum
Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum Everyone loves a good free preview, but not all of the bond market enjoyed today's version. It involved reports that Trump was considering firing Powell. Forget the nitty gritty details because markets took it very seriously if volume is any indication (highest since tariff announcement week in April). Those who pay close attention were not-at-all-surprised to see longer-term yields RISING in response. After all, a more dovish Fed could only directly control overnight rates. This is enough to maybe help 2yr Treasuries and under, but
16th July, 25
Mortgage Rates Mostly Sideways After Dodging Mid-Day Drama
This morning brought another inflation report. Given the negative reaction to yesterday's inflation data, there was some cause for concern. Thankfully, today's data was more unequivocally acceptable for the bond market and--thus--interest rates. Bonds improved fairly well into the late AM hours, but then, the drama! Actually, there wasn't much drama for mortgage rates, but behind the scenes, lenders came very close to making mid-day adjustments toward higher rates. Some of them actually did, but most of those lenders later reversed course after the drama faded. So what was it? In a
Mortgage Rates Mostly Sideways After Dodging Mid-Day Drama
This morning brought another inflation report. Given the negative reaction to yesterday's inflation data, there was some cause for concern. Thankfully, today's data was more unequivocally acceptable for the bond market and--thus--interest rates. Bonds improved fairly well into the late AM hours, but then, the drama! Actually, there wasn't much drama for mortgage rates, but behind the scenes, lenders came very close to making mid-day adjustments toward higher rates. Some of them actually did, but most of those lenders later reversed course after the drama faded. So what was it? In a
16th July, 25
TBA Settlement, Processing, HELOC, Purchase Advice Mgt. Tools; JPMorgan to Charge For Info?
JPMorgan told FinTechs that it will charge for access to its customers’ bank information. The fees would bring big bucks to JPMorgan but eat into the profit margin of any lender or credit reporting agency or verification service. Will this become a trend with other depositories? Lenders and their originators, along with MBS investors, carefully watch trends in income and individuals. The gig economy, driven by on-demand work and services like rideshares and food delivery, is a growing part of the U.S. economy and primarily consists of sole proprietorships tracked by the U.S. Census Bureau’
TBA Settlement, Processing, HELOC, Purchase Advice Mgt. Tools; JPMorgan to Charge For Info?
JPMorgan told FinTechs that it will charge for access to its customers’ bank information. The fees would bring big bucks to JPMorgan but eat into the profit margin of any lender or credit reporting agency or verification service. Will this become a trend with other depositories? Lenders and their originators, along with MBS investors, carefully watch trends in income and individuals. The gig economy, driven by on-demand work and services like rideshares and food delivery, is a growing part of the U.S. economy and primarily consists of sole proprietorships tracked by the U.S. Census Bureau’
16th July, 25
PPI Reaction Playing Out Better Than CPI So Far
Tuesday's CPI reaction was frustrating. Bonds rallied for an hour only to sell off for the rest of the day starting at 9:30am. Things are off to a different sort of start today. PPI was a bit lower than expected and didn't immediately suggest a major tariff impact in the same way as some of the categories in yesterday's CPI. Imports themselves are not included in PPI, but if a domestic producer raises prices on something with tariffed components, tariffs would effectively be responsible for the increase unless the producer had a separate reason to raise prices. Bottom line: it
PPI Reaction Playing Out Better Than CPI So Far
Tuesday's CPI reaction was frustrating. Bonds rallied for an hour only to sell off for the rest of the day starting at 9:30am. Things are off to a different sort of start today. PPI was a bit lower than expected and didn't immediately suggest a major tariff impact in the same way as some of the categories in yesterday's CPI. Imports themselves are not included in PPI, but if a domestic producer raises prices on something with tariffed components, tariffs would effectively be responsible for the increase unless the producer had a separate reason to raise prices. Bottom line: it
15th July, 25
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction? Heading into today's data, we knew there was a possibility of two separate reactions--one for the top line CPI numbers and one for a deeper look at the internal components. Those internals show that tariffs are having an impact even though it was a smaller impact than many forecasters were expecting. Bonds didn't seem to care at first. When a new glut of trades came online at the 9:30am NYSE open, that changed. Both stocks and bonds sold off sharply starting at 9:30am and this move looks far more convincing that the initial rally. Econ Data /
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction? Heading into today's data, we knew there was a possibility of two separate reactions--one for the top line CPI numbers and one for a deeper look at the internal components. Those internals show that tariffs are having an impact even though it was a smaller impact than many forecasters were expecting. Bonds didn't seem to care at first. When a new glut of trades came online at the 9:30am NYSE open, that changed. Both stocks and bonds sold off sharply starting at 9:30am and this move looks far more convincing that the initial rally. Econ Data /
15th July, 25
Mortgage Rates Move Higher Despite Decent Inflation Reading
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds don't like inflation. When inflation reports are higher than the market expected, rates tend to rise, all other things being equal. But today's inflation numbers were a bit lower than the median forecast. This scenario is typically more likely to push rates lower. Indeed, in the first hour following today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, bond trading implied lower rates. Then things changed. Recall our closing reminder from yesterday which qualified the conventional wisdom reactions, saying "even then,
Mortgage Rates Move Higher Despite Decent Inflation Reading
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds don't like inflation. When inflation reports are higher than the market expected, rates tend to rise, all other things being equal. But today's inflation numbers were a bit lower than the median forecast. This scenario is typically more likely to push rates lower. Indeed, in the first hour following today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, bond trading implied lower rates. Then things changed. Recall our closing reminder from yesterday which qualified the conventional wisdom reactions, saying "even then,
15th July, 25
Corresp. and Wholesale, Internal Audit, Verification Products, Redlining Webinar; When LOs Should Prospect
Here’s a cool password: 2 444 66666 8888888 9. (You can figure it out.) I’m no IT wizard, but some are. Do you want AI to open your emails and create drafts for you to reply to them? Fyxer does exactly that. Goldman Sachs is piloting an autonomous software engineer, Devin, from AI startup Cognition, marking a significant advancement in AI integration. Devin, capable of handling complex tasks with minimal human intervention, could soon join Goldman's 12,000 developers, potentially scaling to thousands of AI engineers depending on use cases. I didn’t make the cut for Facebook, uh, Meta’s
Corresp. and Wholesale, Internal Audit, Verification Products, Redlining Webinar; When LOs Should Prospect
Here’s a cool password: 2 444 66666 8888888 9. (You can figure it out.) I’m no IT wizard, but some are. Do you want AI to open your emails and create drafts for you to reply to them? Fyxer does exactly that. Goldman Sachs is piloting an autonomous software engineer, Devin, from AI startup Cognition, marking a significant advancement in AI integration. Devin, capable of handling complex tasks with minimal human intervention, could soon join Goldman's 12,000 developers, potentially scaling to thousands of AI engineers depending on use cases. I didn’t make the cut for Facebook, uh, Meta’s
15th July, 25
Tariffs Show Up in CPI, But Not Enough to Hurt
If market watchers get out their magnifying glasses, they can certainly find some evidence of tariffs impacting inflation in various goods, but those goods are such a small part of the overall CPI calculation that they didn't account for any of this month's higher inflation. Rather, it was the usual suspects (housing, medical care, professional services) that did most of the damage of the damage. Bonds are certainly able to rally based on the fact that CPI came in below forecast, but bonds are just as certain to have second thoughts about that rally based on the persistence of non-tariff
Tariffs Show Up in CPI, But Not Enough to Hurt
If market watchers get out their magnifying glasses, they can certainly find some evidence of tariffs impacting inflation in various goods, but those goods are such a small part of the overall CPI calculation that they didn't account for any of this month's higher inflation. Rather, it was the usual suspects (housing, medical care, professional services) that did most of the damage of the damage. Bonds are certainly able to rally based on the fact that CPI came in below forecast, but bonds are just as certain to have second thoughts about that rally based on the persistence of non-tariff
14th July, 25
All Eyes on CPI
All Eyes on CPI Bonds have sold off a bit so far in July, but haven't lost much more ground versus last Tuesday as of this afternoon. In other words, trading levels have been coiling for nearly a week as we've traversed a data-free calendar in anticipation of a very important CPI (Consumer Price Index). This is most notable opportunity yet for big-ticket data to show tariff impacts both because it's the first major report for June and also because several Fed members have specifically mentioned June's data as being likely affected. It doesn't take much to connect the dots from there. If
All Eyes on CPI
All Eyes on CPI Bonds have sold off a bit so far in July, but haven't lost much more ground versus last Tuesday as of this afternoon. In other words, trading levels have been coiling for nearly a week as we've traversed a data-free calendar in anticipation of a very important CPI (Consumer Price Index). This is most notable opportunity yet for big-ticket data to show tariff impacts both because it's the first major report for June and also because several Fed members have specifically mentioned June's data as being likely affected. It doesn't take much to connect the dots from there. If
14th July, 25
Mortgage Rates Just a Hair Higher Ahead of Important Inflation Report
Today's movement in mortgage rates, in and of itself, is barely worth mentioning. The average lender remains close enough to Friday's levels but is technically just a hair higher. That fact is offset by the counterpoint that most of the past two months saw higher rates. The future is far more interesting than the present--specifically, the immediate future. Tomorrow morning brings the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the most important economic reports as far as interest rates are concerned and tomorrow's example is especially notable. This CPI marks
Mortgage Rates Just a Hair Higher Ahead of Important Inflation Report
Today's movement in mortgage rates, in and of itself, is barely worth mentioning. The average lender remains close enough to Friday's levels but is technically just a hair higher. That fact is offset by the counterpoint that most of the past two months saw higher rates. The future is far more interesting than the present--specifically, the immediate future. Tomorrow morning brings the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the most important economic reports as far as interest rates are concerned and tomorrow's example is especially notable. This CPI marks
Mortgage AgentAnkit ParekhLocation ScarboroughLicense M23004851- 
