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22nd July, 25
Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day
Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day Bonds improved in the morning following comments from Bessent that gave the markets more insight to his role in defusing last week's frenzy over the potential ouster. In short, he's the voice of reason and the bond market likes that. Additional gains came courtesy of 9:30am NYSE tradeflows. At the time, stocks were sinking. Then in the afternoon, stocks rebounded without pulling bond yields higher. Market Movement Recap 10:59 AM Flat overnight but gaining ground in AM hours following Bessent comments on Fed and NYSE opening bell volatility.
Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day
Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day Bonds improved in the morning following comments from Bessent that gave the markets more insight to his role in defusing last week's frenzy over the potential ouster. In short, he's the voice of reason and the bond market likes that. Additional gains came courtesy of 9:30am NYSE tradeflows. At the time, stocks were sinking. Then in the afternoon, stocks rebounded without pulling bond yields higher. Market Movement Recap 10:59 AM Flat overnight but gaining ground in AM hours following Bessent comments on Fed and NYSE opening bell volatility.
22nd July, 25
Mortgage Rates Inch Down to 2-Week Lows
Last week, we got a sneak preview of how the market would react to Fed Chair Powell ending his term early. In a nutshell, only the shortest-term rates would improve while most consumer rates would move higher--including mortgages. This isn't conjecture, but rather the actual response in the bond market (bonds dictate interest rates). Thankfully, the response reversed after Trump said he wasn't planning on firing Powell. Nonetheless, doubt remains as to whether Powell is susceptible to other efforts. With that in mind, the rate market reacted positively this morning when additional
Mortgage Rates Inch Down to 2-Week Lows
Last week, we got a sneak preview of how the market would react to Fed Chair Powell ending his term early. In a nutshell, only the shortest-term rates would improve while most consumer rates would move higher--including mortgages. This isn't conjecture, but rather the actual response in the bond market (bonds dictate interest rates). Thankfully, the response reversed after Trump said he wasn't planning on firing Powell. Nonetheless, doubt remains as to whether Powell is susceptible to other efforts. With that in mind, the rate market reacted positively this morning when additional
22nd July, 25
Marketing, Processing, Servicing Tools; STRATMOR on Revenue Growth; FHA, EPDs, and Disasters
You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company and mortgage servicer certainly do. It is a fact that warmer air can hold more moisture, and a new peer-reviewed study published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience found that insured losses from hurricanes could rise 50 percent if global atmospheric warming hits the 2 degrees Celsius threshold. A lot of those losses come from the areas affected by hurricanes expanding well northward along the Eastern Seaboard, with places that had been considered relatively safe from the monster storms suddenly now well in range
Marketing, Processing, Servicing Tools; STRATMOR on Revenue Growth; FHA, EPDs, and Disasters
You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company and mortgage servicer certainly do. It is a fact that warmer air can hold more moisture, and a new peer-reviewed study published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience found that insured losses from hurricanes could rise 50 percent if global atmospheric warming hits the 2 degrees Celsius threshold. A lot of those losses come from the areas affected by hurricanes expanding well northward along the Eastern Seaboard, with places that had been considered relatively safe from the monster storms suddenly now well in range
22nd July, 25
Bonds Approve of Bessent Comments and Stock Volatility
While stock market volatility may be a drop in the bucket in the bigger picture, earnings season tends to increase volume and liquidity. This can spill over to the bond market in unpredictable ways, but so far this week, it's been helpful--especially at the 9:30am NYSE open. A few hours before that, bonds moved into positive territory following a series of comments from Bessent. Topics included trade negotiations and Fed Chair Powell. Bessent doesn't see a need to fire Powell, echoing a WSJ report over the weekend to the same effect. If Bessent's underlying goal is to help
Bonds Approve of Bessent Comments and Stock Volatility
While stock market volatility may be a drop in the bucket in the bigger picture, earnings season tends to increase volume and liquidity. This can spill over to the bond market in unpredictable ways, but so far this week, it's been helpful--especially at the 9:30am NYSE open. A few hours before that, bonds moved into positive territory following a series of comments from Bessent. Topics included trade negotiations and Fed Chair Powell. Bessent doesn't see a need to fire Powell, echoing a WSJ report over the weekend to the same effect. If Bessent's underlying goal is to help
21st July, 25
Uneventful Resilience
Uneventful Resilience Monday's theme for the bond market was one of moderate resilience--at least for the longer-end of the yield curve. Yields are lower across the board (less so for shorter-term notes like the 2yr) without any headline or data-based motivations. On days like this, motivation is assumed to come from technicals and trading taking place in other markets for other reasons. With earnings season in full swing, it's no surprise to see 9:30am and 4pm garner most of the days volume and volatility.f Econ Data / Events Leading Indicators -0.3 vs -0.2 f'cast, 0.0 prev Market
Uneventful Resilience
Uneventful Resilience Monday's theme for the bond market was one of moderate resilience--at least for the longer-end of the yield curve. Yields are lower across the board (less so for shorter-term notes like the 2yr) without any headline or data-based motivations. On days like this, motivation is assumed to come from technicals and trading taking place in other markets for other reasons. With earnings season in full swing, it's no surprise to see 9:30am and 4pm garner most of the days volume and volatility.f Econ Data / Events Leading Indicators -0.3 vs -0.2 f'cast, 0.0 prev Market
21st July, 25
Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower to Start New Week
Mortgage rates didn't move much on Monday, but they moved in the right direction with the average lender 0.03% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario versus last Friday. That makes this the 4th straight business day with a modest gain and it gets us back in line with the lowest rates since July 3rd. One fairly consistent theme this week will be the absence of the sort of high-impact economic data that is often responsible for rate volatility. Last week's key data was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which pushed rates higher on Tuesday. There are several economic reports on tap
Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower to Start New Week
Mortgage rates didn't move much on Monday, but they moved in the right direction with the average lender 0.03% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario versus last Friday. That makes this the 4th straight business day with a modest gain and it gets us back in line with the lowest rates since July 3rd. One fairly consistent theme this week will be the absence of the sort of high-impact economic data that is often responsible for rate volatility. Last week's key data was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which pushed rates higher on Tuesday. There are several economic reports on tap
21st July, 25
Broker, Fraud Prevention, AI HELOC Tools; In-Person Events and Training
“Sometimes, someone unexpected comes into your life outta nowhere, makes your heart race, and changes you forever. We call those people cops. (Where did you think that was going?)” Lots of people want to know what to expect with interest rates and, surprisingly, pay some firms to predict the future. (Everyone out there is striving for business regardless of the direction of interest rates.) Here’s something for free: Morgan Stanley, for one, doesn’t see any Fed rate cuts until 2026. LOs can depend on interest rates for their livelihood: ongoing subdued mortgage originations are forcing
Broker, Fraud Prevention, AI HELOC Tools; In-Person Events and Training
“Sometimes, someone unexpected comes into your life outta nowhere, makes your heart race, and changes you forever. We call those people cops. (Where did you think that was going?)” Lots of people want to know what to expect with interest rates and, surprisingly, pay some firms to predict the future. (Everyone out there is striving for business regardless of the direction of interest rates.) Here’s something for free: Morgan Stanley, for one, doesn’t see any Fed rate cuts until 2026. LOs can depend on interest rates for their livelihood: ongoing subdued mortgage originations are forcing
21st July, 25
Stronger Start on Another Quiet Calendar Week
It seems like only 2 weeks ago (because it was) that we encountered an entire week without any major events on the econ calendar. The present week is not much different. Scheduled speeches from Fed members will not include comment on monetary policy as the Fed is in its blackout period (no monetary policy comments in the 12 days leading up to a Fed announcement). S&P PMI (Thursday) is occasionally worth a reaction, and Jobless Claims only tends to matter when it falls very far from forecasts. It's against this backdrop that both stocks and bonds are making respectable gains this morning.
Stronger Start on Another Quiet Calendar Week
It seems like only 2 weeks ago (because it was) that we encountered an entire week without any major events on the econ calendar. The present week is not much different. Scheduled speeches from Fed members will not include comment on monetary policy as the Fed is in its blackout period (no monetary policy comments in the 12 days leading up to a Fed announcement). S&P PMI (Thursday) is occasionally worth a reaction, and Jobless Claims only tends to matter when it falls very far from forecasts. It's against this backdrop that both stocks and bonds are making respectable gains this morning.
18th July, 25
Needle Threaded. Now What?
Needle Threaded. Now What? As always, big-ticket data and/or news headlines have potential energy in terms of their impact on bonds/rates. For instance, this week's CPI could have caused a big move higher or lower. Same story with Trump/Powell headlines. Realized impacts of high-potential-energy events can vary quite a bit. All too often, separate considerations, data line-items, or headlines and subsequent retractions act as offsetting penalties that return the bond market to the original line of scrimmage. Such was the case this week and Friday didn't do anything to change
Needle Threaded. Now What?
Needle Threaded. Now What? As always, big-ticket data and/or news headlines have potential energy in terms of their impact on bonds/rates. For instance, this week's CPI could have caused a big move higher or lower. Same story with Trump/Powell headlines. Realized impacts of high-potential-energy events can vary quite a bit. All too often, separate considerations, data line-items, or headlines and subsequent retractions act as offsetting penalties that return the bond market to the original line of scrimmage. Such was the case this week and Friday didn't do anything to change
18th July, 25
Mortgage Rates Barely Budge Today and This Week
While any rate watcher's bingo card should always have a few squares devoted to "unchanged, flat, etc.," this week's had at least as many squares reserved for a big reaction to inflation data. Specifically, Tuesday's inflation data had the power to cause a big move in rates. While it was the week's biggest influence, rates actually managed to hold flat overall. Friday did very little to alter that reality. By Thursday, we were already back in line with last week's latest levels. Friday technically pushed our 30yr fixed index 0.01% lower, so it's a victory despite being the smallest
Mortgage Rates Barely Budge Today and This Week
While any rate watcher's bingo card should always have a few squares devoted to "unchanged, flat, etc.," this week's had at least as many squares reserved for a big reaction to inflation data. Specifically, Tuesday's inflation data had the power to cause a big move in rates. While it was the week's biggest influence, rates actually managed to hold flat overall. Friday did very little to alter that reality. By Thursday, we were already back in line with last week's latest levels. Friday technically pushed our 30yr fixed index 0.01% lower, so it's a victory despite being the smallest
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