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20th January, 26
Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg?
Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg? After months spent observing the same old range in the bond market, we're finally in the throes of a confirmed breakout. Unfortunately, the breakout has seen 10yr yields surge almost 10bps above the range ceiling in just 2 days. Technical analysts are high fiving each other because this is a classic breakout event (higher volume, sharper movement in the direction of the breakout). Fundamental traders are saying "not so fast" because there's nothing to say bonds couldn't be in decent shape today without fiscal drama in Japan or spiraling geopolitical
Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg?
Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg? After months spent observing the same old range in the bond market, we're finally in the throes of a confirmed breakout. Unfortunately, the breakout has seen 10yr yields surge almost 10bps above the range ceiling in just 2 days. Technical analysts are high fiving each other because this is a classic breakout event (higher volume, sharper movement in the direction of the breakout). Fundamental traders are saying "not so fast" because there's nothing to say bonds couldn't be in decent shape today without fiscal drama in Japan or spiraling geopolitical
20th January, 26
Mortgage Rates Jump to Match Highest Levels in Nearly a Month
Mortgage rates jumped sharply higher on Tuesday in response to weakness driven by geopolitical events and overseas financial markets. After hitting lows of 5.99% for a few hours on January 9th and spending last week in the low 6's, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate is back up to 6.21% today. This matches the level seen the day before the announcement of the administration's $200 bln mortgage bond buying plans. The last time rates were higher was December 23rd. In light of that announcement, why aren't mortgage rates doing better? Simply put, the market has already reacted
Mortgage Rates Jump to Match Highest Levels in Nearly a Month
Mortgage rates jumped sharply higher on Tuesday in response to weakness driven by geopolitical events and overseas financial markets. After hitting lows of 5.99% for a few hours on January 9th and spending last week in the low 6's, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate is back up to 6.21% today. This matches the level seen the day before the announcement of the administration's $200 bln mortgage bond buying plans. The last time rates were higher was December 23rd. In light of that announcement, why aren't mortgage rates doing better? Simply put, the market has already reacted
20th January, 26
Custom Software, UW Tools; FHA, USDA News; Webinars Today and Tomorrow; Mitch Kider Interview
On today’s Mortgage Law Today at 3PM ET, sponsored by Polunsky Beitel Green, LLP, Brian Levy sits down with Mitch Kider to unpack the shifting legal and regulatory landscape facing mortgage lenders, CFPB uncertainty, fair lending risk, GSE policy, enforcement trends, and how AI is beginning to reshape legal strategy heading into 2026. on tomorrow’s Mortgage Matters at 2PM ET (brought to you by Lenders One) is Ethan Winchell, President & Co-Founder of Truework, to discuss the seriousness and technology of verifications. Learning about capital markets is certainly intentional, and MCT’
Custom Software, UW Tools; FHA, USDA News; Webinars Today and Tomorrow; Mitch Kider Interview
On today’s Mortgage Law Today at 3PM ET, sponsored by Polunsky Beitel Green, LLP, Brian Levy sits down with Mitch Kider to unpack the shifting legal and regulatory landscape facing mortgage lenders, CFPB uncertainty, fair lending risk, GSE policy, enforcement trends, and how AI is beginning to reshape legal strategy heading into 2026. on tomorrow’s Mortgage Matters at 2PM ET (brought to you by Lenders One) is Ethan Winchell, President & Co-Founder of Truework, to discuss the seriousness and technology of verifications. Learning about capital markets is certainly intentional, and MCT’
20th January, 26
Bonds Brace For Greenland Fallout. Japan Not Helping Either
As Trump's Greenland aspirations continue unabated, measurable fallout is increasing. Part of the strategy is increased tariffs. EU is also planning/threatening retaliatory tariffs as well as suspending talks on the US/EU trade deal. The latest measurable manifestation of this morning's fallout is the announcement that a Danish pension fund is liquidating its Treasury holdings. While the dollar amount isn't huge, it speaks to the risk that other EU countries could follow suit. Granted, this could create problems for those EU funds, but rationality doesn't always prevail amid geopolitical
Bonds Brace For Greenland Fallout. Japan Not Helping Either
As Trump's Greenland aspirations continue unabated, measurable fallout is increasing. Part of the strategy is increased tariffs. EU is also planning/threatening retaliatory tariffs as well as suspending talks on the US/EU trade deal. The latest measurable manifestation of this morning's fallout is the announcement that a Danish pension fund is liquidating its Treasury holdings. While the dollar amount isn't huge, it speaks to the risk that other EU countries could follow suit. Granted, this could create problems for those EU funds, but rationality doesn't always prevail amid geopolitical
16th January, 26
10yr Yields Finally Break The Range
10yr Yields Finally Break The Range Despite an absence of market movers on the calendar, bonds found a reason to move. In fact, 10yr yields staged their first legit breakout from the narrow trading range of the past 4 months. Whether that has any implications for the future is a debate for technical analysts to have with fundamental traders. There was an extra little jolt of mid-day weakness when Trump suggested Hassett was out of the running for the Fed Chair nomination, but the day's bond losses would still be better-characterized as gradual and non-event-driven. MBS outperformed yet
10yr Yields Finally Break The Range
10yr Yields Finally Break The Range Despite an absence of market movers on the calendar, bonds found a reason to move. In fact, 10yr yields staged their first legit breakout from the narrow trading range of the past 4 months. Whether that has any implications for the future is a debate for technical analysts to have with fundamental traders. There was an extra little jolt of mid-day weakness when Trump suggested Hassett was out of the running for the Fed Chair nomination, but the day's bond losses would still be better-characterized as gradual and non-event-driven. MBS outperformed yet
16th January, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week at Highs
Don't stress out. If we ignore the past 5 days, today's mortgage rates are still the lowest since early 2023. That said, they're up a bit from last week and they moved moderately higher day-over-day. Last week's news regarding Fannie and Freddie's plans to buy $200 bln of MBS (the mortgage-backed securities that directly dictate mortgage rates) made for a rapid drop in the average mortgage rate, but that had largely run its course by Monday. Since then, the market has been finding its range. Mortgages have also been contending with countervailing forces in the broader bond market.
Mortgage Rates End Week at Highs
Don't stress out. If we ignore the past 5 days, today's mortgage rates are still the lowest since early 2023. That said, they're up a bit from last week and they moved moderately higher day-over-day. Last week's news regarding Fannie and Freddie's plans to buy $200 bln of MBS (the mortgage-backed securities that directly dictate mortgage rates) made for a rapid drop in the average mortgage rate, but that had largely run its course by Monday. Since then, the market has been finding its range. Mortgages have also been contending with countervailing forces in the broader bond market.
16th January, 26
Builder Sentiment Survey Not Yet Reflecting Recent Rate Changes
Builder confidence slipped to start the year, with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) falling two points to 37 in January. The erasure of December’s modest gains doesn't really do much to change the broader picture: builder sentiment remains stuck in a holding pattern near its lowest levels, weighed down by the usual suspects of persistent affordability challenges and rising construction costs. The underlying components weakened across the board. The index measuring current sales conditions dipped one point to 41, while the gauge tracking
Builder Sentiment Survey Not Yet Reflecting Recent Rate Changes
Builder confidence slipped to start the year, with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) falling two points to 37 in January. The erasure of December’s modest gains doesn't really do much to change the broader picture: builder sentiment remains stuck in a holding pattern near its lowest levels, weighed down by the usual suspects of persistent affordability challenges and rising construction costs. The underlying components weakened across the board. The index measuring current sales conditions dipped one point to 41, while the gauge tracking
16th January, 26
Compliance, Servicing, Mortgage Reset Tools; February and March Events and Education
How are we halfway done with January already? Wasn’t it just New Year’s? Some lenders slow down in the winter, but I am hearing reports of great Decembers and Januarys. Wanna fire up your sales team? Here’s an article: “The golden handcuffs are slipping in the U.S. housing market.” As industry vets knew they would eventually, borrowers with “once-in-a-lifetime” rates are refinancing, or selling houses with those mortgages on them. There is a lot of news and change, both locally and globally, for originators to follow, and the current STRATMOR Group blog is titled, “Helping
Compliance, Servicing, Mortgage Reset Tools; February and March Events and Education
How are we halfway done with January already? Wasn’t it just New Year’s? Some lenders slow down in the winter, but I am hearing reports of great Decembers and Januarys. Wanna fire up your sales team? Here’s an article: “The golden handcuffs are slipping in the U.S. housing market.” As industry vets knew they would eventually, borrowers with “once-in-a-lifetime” rates are refinancing, or selling houses with those mortgages on them. There is a lot of news and change, both locally and globally, for originators to follow, and the current STRATMOR Group blog is titled, “Helping
16th January, 26
Slow Start, Quiet Calendar
Last week reinforced the lesson anything can happen in the bond market--even with less than an hour left on an otherwise uneventful day. There's no way to plan ahead for that eternal caveat, so we're left to observe prevailing momentum/volatility and simply consider risks on the event calendar. In today's case, bonds are moderately weaker overnight with 10yr yields pushing the upper boundary of the trading range. MBS are outperforming modestly and without any other specific justifications, we will continue to assume a combination of actual and expected GSE purchases. The calendar is
Slow Start, Quiet Calendar
Last week reinforced the lesson anything can happen in the bond market--even with less than an hour left on an otherwise uneventful day. There's no way to plan ahead for that eternal caveat, so we're left to observe prevailing momentum/volatility and simply consider risks on the event calendar. In today's case, bonds are moderately weaker overnight with 10yr yields pushing the upper boundary of the trading range. MBS are outperforming modestly and without any other specific justifications, we will continue to assume a combination of actual and expected GSE purchases. The calendar is
15th January, 26
Data-Driven Weakness
Data-Driven Weakness It was a reasonably straightforward day for the bond market. Trading was flat overnight, then weaker after the 8:30am Jobless Claims data. That report is hit and miss as a market mover, but a sub-200k print without any recent seasonal spike is certainly worth a few bps of weakness. Impacts were most notable in Fed Funds Rate expectations, which have now fully eliminated any possibility for a January cut and lowered the probability of a March cut from over 40% last week to under 20% today. In the bigger picture, longer-term rates remain squarely range-bound and MBS
Data-Driven Weakness
Data-Driven Weakness It was a reasonably straightforward day for the bond market. Trading was flat overnight, then weaker after the 8:30am Jobless Claims data. That report is hit and miss as a market mover, but a sub-200k print without any recent seasonal spike is certainly worth a few bps of weakness. Impacts were most notable in Fed Funds Rate expectations, which have now fully eliminated any possibility for a January cut and lowered the probability of a March cut from over 40% last week to under 20% today. In the bigger picture, longer-term rates remain squarely range-bound and MBS