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20th April, 26
Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend
Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend Bonds/oil/stocks saw a small corrective bounce over the weekend after headlines called the peace process into question, but markets agree we're close enough to "on track" to avoid a major correction. Over the course of the day, bonds returned all the way to 'unchanged' even as oil prices stayed elevated vs Friday's close. It's hard to conceive that any counterparties in the war have the economic will to re-escalate at this point. Still, we don't know if the present 2 week ceasefire will give way to another ceasefire or something
Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend
Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend Bonds/oil/stocks saw a small corrective bounce over the weekend after headlines called the peace process into question, but markets agree we're close enough to "on track" to avoid a major correction. Over the course of the day, bonds returned all the way to 'unchanged' even as oil prices stayed elevated vs Friday's close. It's hard to conceive that any counterparties in the war have the economic will to re-escalate at this point. Still, we don't know if the present 2 week ceasefire will give way to another ceasefire or something
20th April, 26
Mortgage Rates Almost Perfectly Flat to Start New Week
Despite some initial signs of volatility in financial markets over the weekend, the bond market managed to avoid losing much ground. Because bonds dictate mortgage rate movement, the average lender remained very close to Friday's latest levels. MND's rate index (a measure of top-tier 30yr fixed rates) rose by 0.01% which is the smallest increment we measure. Since April 14th, the index has held inside a narrow range of 0.03% with the bottom of that range representing the lowest rate in over a month. Volatility is a bigger risk over the next 2 days as the 2 week Iran war ceasefire expires
Mortgage Rates Almost Perfectly Flat to Start New Week
Despite some initial signs of volatility in financial markets over the weekend, the bond market managed to avoid losing much ground. Because bonds dictate mortgage rate movement, the average lender remained very close to Friday's latest levels. MND's rate index (a measure of top-tier 30yr fixed rates) rose by 0.01% which is the smallest increment we measure. Since April 14th, the index has held inside a narrow range of 0.03% with the bottom of that range representing the lowest rate in over a month. Volatility is a bigger risk over the next 2 days as the 2 week Iran war ceasefire expires
20th April, 26
Best-ex, AI, Servicing, Borrower Acquisition Tools; HELOC, Non-QM, Client Funnel Products; Markets on Hold?
War in the Middle East made oil prices go up, higher oil prices hurt world economies and stock markets because prices and inflation go up, and higher inflation leads to higher interest rates. At least, that’s the way it usually works, as does the opposite. Last week stock markets surged as pivotal geopolitical development reshaped investor sentiment: The announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz marked a major step toward de-escalation in the Middle East, with ongoing negotiations fueling optimism that a broader resolution may be closer than previously expected. Oil prices plunged roughly
Best-ex, AI, Servicing, Borrower Acquisition Tools; HELOC, Non-QM, Client Funnel Products; Markets on Hold?
War in the Middle East made oil prices go up, higher oil prices hurt world economies and stock markets because prices and inflation go up, and higher inflation leads to higher interest rates. At least, that’s the way it usually works, as does the opposite. Last week stock markets surged as pivotal geopolitical development reshaped investor sentiment: The announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz marked a major step toward de-escalation in the Middle East, with ongoing negotiations fueling optimism that a broader resolution may be closer than previously expected. Oil prices plunged roughly
20th April, 26
Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend
Heading into the weekend, all indications were about as promising as they have been that the war was heading toward a peaceful conclusion. This was reflected in oil prices and Treasury yields being at multi-week lows (and stocks at all-time highs). But over the weekend, the U.S. fired on and seized an Iranian ship, and Iran said it was cancelling plans to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices retraced almost all of Friday's drop on the news and bonds erased more than half of the associated gains. But both began bouncing back slowly in overnight trading. Bonds are now moving back into
Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend
Heading into the weekend, all indications were about as promising as they have been that the war was heading toward a peaceful conclusion. This was reflected in oil prices and Treasury yields being at multi-week lows (and stocks at all-time highs). But over the weekend, the U.S. fired on and seized an Iranian ship, and Iran said it was cancelling plans to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices retraced almost all of Friday's drop on the news and bonds erased more than half of the associated gains. But both began bouncing back slowly in overnight trading. Bonds are now moving back into
17th April, 26
AM Gains Mostly Stick Around
AM Gains Mostly Stick Around Everything interesting about today occurred before 9am ET (several war-related headlines that prompted a sharp rally in bonds). The rest of the day was spent drifting mostly sideways. Stocks continued their surge to new all-time highs. Oil prices fell in concert with the bond rally, briefly dipping below $80/bbl. Market Movement Recap 08:41 AM Modest overnight gains and then more buying on war headlines. MBS up over a quarter point and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.262 01:03 PM MBS up 13 ticks (.41) and 10yr down 8bps at 4.237 04:26 PM little changed as the close
AM Gains Mostly Stick Around
AM Gains Mostly Stick Around Everything interesting about today occurred before 9am ET (several war-related headlines that prompted a sharp rally in bonds). The rest of the day was spent drifting mostly sideways. Stocks continued their surge to new all-time highs. Oil prices fell in concert with the bond rally, briefly dipping below $80/bbl. Market Movement Recap 08:41 AM Modest overnight gains and then more buying on war headlines. MBS up over a quarter point and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.262 01:03 PM MBS up 13 ticks (.41) and 10yr down 8bps at 4.237 04:26 PM little changed as the close
17th April, 26
Lowest Rates in Over a Month Despite Small Move Today
Today was a victory for mortgage rates, but not nearly as much of a victory as the underlying bond market would suggest. The good news is that the end result is the lowest average 30yr fixed rate in just over a month. The other news isn't bad, per se, but it is a bit confusing. As we often discuss, mortgage rates are based on bonds because mortgages "turn into" bonds in order to be traded on the secondary market. You don't need to understand that process in detail to accept that it's true. Case in point, here's a chart* that overlays our average 30yr fixed rate and the most
Lowest Rates in Over a Month Despite Small Move Today
Today was a victory for mortgage rates, but not nearly as much of a victory as the underlying bond market would suggest. The good news is that the end result is the lowest average 30yr fixed rate in just over a month. The other news isn't bad, per se, but it is a bit confusing. As we often discuss, mortgage rates are based on bonds because mortgages "turn into" bonds in order to be traded on the secondary market. You don't need to understand that process in detail to accept that it's true. Case in point, here's a chart* that overlays our average 30yr fixed rate and the most
17th April, 26
Builder Sentiment Drops to Seven-Month Low in April
Builder confidence fell sharply in April as rising costs and economic uncertainty weighed on sentiment heading into the spring buying season. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped four points to 34 , its lowest level since September 2025. The decline marks a notable setback after modest gains in recent months, with sentiment remaining firmly below the breakeven level of 50 that separates positive from negative market conditions. All three major components of the index moved lower. The gauge of current sales conditions fell four points
Builder Sentiment Drops to Seven-Month Low in April
Builder confidence fell sharply in April as rising costs and economic uncertainty weighed on sentiment heading into the spring buying season. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped four points to 34 , its lowest level since September 2025. The decline marks a notable setback after modest gains in recent months, with sentiment remaining firmly below the breakeven level of 50 that separates positive from negative market conditions. All three major components of the index moved lower. The gauge of current sales conditions fell four points
17th April, 26
Mortgage Application Demand Finally Bounces
Mortgage applications ticked higher last week, reversing recent declines as easing rates provided a modest boost to activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.8% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 10. Refinance activity led the gain, with the Refinance Index rising 5% from the previous week and now sitting 15% above year-ago levels. The increase follows a pullback in rates, which helped restore some borrower incentive after several weeks of weakening demand. Purchase activity remained soft, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index slipping 1
Mortgage Application Demand Finally Bounces
Mortgage applications ticked higher last week, reversing recent declines as easing rates provided a modest boost to activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.8% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 10. Refinance activity led the gain, with the Refinance Index rising 5% from the previous week and now sitting 15% above year-ago levels. The increase follows a pullback in rates, which helped restore some borrower incentive after several weeks of weakening demand. Purchase activity remained soft, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index slipping 1
17th April, 26
Existing Home Sales Remain Flat in The Bigger Picture
Existing-home sales pulled back in March, reversing February’s modest gains as affordability pressures and rising mortgage rates continued to weigh on buyer activity. Sales fell 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million , slipping 1.0% below year-ago levels. “March home sales remained sluggish and below last year’s pace,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, pointing to weaker consumer confidence and softer job growth as ongoing headwinds. Inventory improved slightly, but concerns about demand persist. Total housing inventory rose to 1.36 million units , up 3.0% from
Existing Home Sales Remain Flat in The Bigger Picture
Existing-home sales pulled back in March, reversing February’s modest gains as affordability pressures and rising mortgage rates continued to weigh on buyer activity. Sales fell 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million , slipping 1.0% below year-ago levels. “March home sales remained sluggish and below last year’s pace,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, pointing to weaker consumer confidence and softer job growth as ongoing headwinds. Inventory improved slightly, but concerns about demand persist. Total housing inventory rose to 1.36 million units , up 3.0% from
17th April, 26
Dark Matter Changes; Mfg. DPA, QC, AI, Data Decisioning Tools; A Strained Housing Market; Insurance/Climate Interview
The MBA's National Advocacy Conference in DC wrapped up this week, and any time you have a gaggle of mortgage personnel in one place, talk in the hallways inevitably turned to current market conditions. For example, servicing rights have increased in value, and MSR trading multiples are in the mid 5x range for certain cohorts (markedly higher than the 4x1 value where it was for years), depending on asset mix, recapture assumptions, and servicing execution. Servicing portfolios are being bought and sold... everyone can afford servicing wants the inside track in retaining the borrowers backing
Dark Matter Changes; Mfg. DPA, QC, AI, Data Decisioning Tools; A Strained Housing Market; Insurance/Climate Interview
The MBA's National Advocacy Conference in DC wrapped up this week, and any time you have a gaggle of mortgage personnel in one place, talk in the hallways inevitably turned to current market conditions. For example, servicing rights have increased in value, and MSR trading multiples are in the mid 5x range for certain cohorts (markedly higher than the 4x1 value where it was for years), depending on asset mix, recapture assumptions, and servicing execution. Servicing portfolios are being bought and sold... everyone can afford servicing wants the inside track in retaining the borrowers backing