Latest news
17th June, 26
NMLS Review, Fraud Monitor, Margin Mgt. Tools; Mortgage Products Shifting... Progressive's "Uppayment"?
Here in Honolulu, as it is in places like Florida and New York, the condo market and HOA fees are of paramount importance, as are the affordability impact of special assessments. Even though the inventory of houses for sale has steadily increased in many areas, some people want more. One idea being bantered about is changing, or eliminating, the capital gains tax on the sale of primary residences. Money talks, and as this veteran LO points out, a housing crash won’t fix affordability. A crackdown on H-1B visas is causing Indian buyers to leave the Dallas housing market, meaning skilled
NMLS Review, Fraud Monitor, Margin Mgt. Tools; Mortgage Products Shifting... Progressive's "Uppayment"?
Here in Honolulu, as it is in places like Florida and New York, the condo market and HOA fees are of paramount importance, as are the affordability impact of special assessments. Even though the inventory of houses for sale has steadily increased in many areas, some people want more. One idea being bantered about is changing, or eliminating, the capital gains tax on the sale of primary residences. Money talks, and as this veteran LO points out, a housing crash won’t fix affordability. A crackdown on H-1B visas is causing Indian buyers to leave the Dallas housing market, meaning skilled
17th June, 26
What Are Bonds Waiting For?
So far today, we've seen some war-related headlines that feel like they should have gotten at least a mild response (Trump saying MOU isn't final and could go back to dropping bombs) and a Retail Sales report that speaks to ongoing economic expansion at a faster-than-expected pace. Both of those things argue for something other than a modest rally in bonds, yet that is exactly what we're seeing. If it weren't for the absence of any major response in other markets, we might wonder what bonds were smoking, or whether they're waiting for bigger news. On that note, the whole market actually is
What Are Bonds Waiting For?
So far today, we've seen some war-related headlines that feel like they should have gotten at least a mild response (Trump saying MOU isn't final and could go back to dropping bombs) and a Retail Sales report that speaks to ongoing economic expansion at a faster-than-expected pace. Both of those things argue for something other than a modest rally in bonds, yet that is exactly what we're seeing. If it weren't for the absence of any major response in other markets, we might wonder what bonds were smoking, or whether they're waiting for bigger news. On that note, the whole market actually is
16th June, 26
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance Bonds improved overnight at the start of European trading and made additional gains in concert with lower oil prices during the domestic session. Notably, the gains met resistance at 4.42%--a resistance level that's been on our radar since the last bounce a few weeks ago. Technical levels certainly don't predict the future, but they can provide a framework for measuring the pace of change in trading levels. If bonds are weaker in the morning, it would act as confirmation that the initial response to the Iran peace deal has played out. In addition
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance Bonds improved overnight at the start of European trading and made additional gains in concert with lower oil prices during the domestic session. Notably, the gains met resistance at 4.42%--a resistance level that's been on our radar since the last bounce a few weeks ago. Technical levels certainly don't predict the future, but they can provide a framework for measuring the pace of change in trading levels. If bonds are weaker in the morning, it would act as confirmation that the initial response to the Iran peace deal has played out. In addition
16th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Lowest Since May 14th
Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate was 6.54% for the average lender. You'd have to go back to May 14th's reading of 6.52% to see anything lower. The latest improvement follows another moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields as global markets digest the U.S./Iran peace deal. There's still some risk that the deal doesn't happen as is currently expected. If those risks materialize, rates could nudge back up toward recent highs. But if everything goes according to plan (or close to it), the bond market may continue pricing in the expected impact on oil prices. The only warning is that some
Mortgage Rates Lowest Since May 14th
Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate was 6.54% for the average lender. You'd have to go back to May 14th's reading of 6.52% to see anything lower. The latest improvement follows another moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields as global markets digest the U.S./Iran peace deal. There's still some risk that the deal doesn't happen as is currently expected. If those risks materialize, rates could nudge back up toward recent highs. But if everything goes according to plan (or close to it), the bond market may continue pricing in the expected impact on oil prices. The only warning is that some
16th June, 26
Stronger Overnight as Europe Trades Peace
European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets. Why bring this up? There was a fairly obvious shift toward lower oil prices and bond yields overnight, and the most obvious suspect was simply the opening bell for European markets. While obvious, it wasn't too big. 10yr yields are hovering in a range that's 2-3bps lower than yesterday, and still above the lows seen at the beginning of the month.
Stronger Overnight as Europe Trades Peace
European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets. Why bring this up? There was a fairly obvious shift toward lower oil prices and bond yields overnight, and the most obvious suspect was simply the opening bell for European markets. While obvious, it wasn't too big. 10yr yields are hovering in a range that's 2-3bps lower than yesterday, and still above the lows seen at the beginning of the month.
16th June, 26
AI Products; Fair Lending, Deportations, and Service Animals; AI Governance; Pennymac's AI Path
Sure, we have a Fed meeting, but the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. Will they all head off on vacation after this week? Perhaps. Given the increase in the “out of office” replies I am seeing, and children in airports, summer vacation is in full swing. (Apparently families will change their spending habits to accommodate the run up in fuel costs; my local gas station won’t let me go above $100 per visit on my credit card.) In an extreme example to time management, the U.S. Congress has only 16 legislative days left on its agenda until the election; the rest of the time is vacation and
AI Products; Fair Lending, Deportations, and Service Animals; AI Governance; Pennymac's AI Path
Sure, we have a Fed meeting, but the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. Will they all head off on vacation after this week? Perhaps. Given the increase in the “out of office” replies I am seeing, and children in airports, summer vacation is in full swing. (Apparently families will change their spending habits to accommodate the run up in fuel costs; my local gas station won’t let me go above $100 per visit on my credit card.) In an extreme example to time management, the U.S. Congress has only 16 legislative days left on its agenda until the election; the rest of the time is vacation and
15th June, 26
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger.
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger. With both sides signing the peace memo, the market was immediately willing to react in the overnight session, but that reaction fell short of what we might expect for an official peace deal. This is a bond market problem more than an Iran war problem. Case in point, oil prices stayed flat after their big overnight drop. Stocks added to strong overnight gains. Bonds were the odd man out. Part of the reason is that bonds did more than stocks to get in position for this eventuality last week. As of today, both the S&P and 10yr are
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger.
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger. With both sides signing the peace memo, the market was immediately willing to react in the overnight session, but that reaction fell short of what we might expect for an official peace deal. This is a bond market problem more than an Iran war problem. Case in point, oil prices stayed flat after their big overnight drop. Stocks added to strong overnight gains. Bonds were the odd man out. Part of the reason is that bonds did more than stocks to get in position for this eventuality last week. As of today, both the S&P and 10yr are
15th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Hit One-Month Lows
The bad news: mortgage rates didn't fall quite as much as one might have expected following the confirmation of the Iran peace deal. The good news: rates had already begun pricing in the peace deal last Thursday and it only took a modest improvement for the average lender to match the lowest level in exactly one month. For context, today's MND rate index of 6.56% is the same as the most recent low seen on May 29th. Before that, you'd have to go back to 5/15 to see anything lower. For even more context, prior to 5/15, today's rates would have been the 3rd highest since August 1st, 2025.&
Mortgage Rates Hit One-Month Lows
The bad news: mortgage rates didn't fall quite as much as one might have expected following the confirmation of the Iran peace deal. The good news: rates had already begun pricing in the peace deal last Thursday and it only took a modest improvement for the average lender to match the lowest level in exactly one month. For context, today's MND rate index of 6.56% is the same as the most recent low seen on May 29th. Before that, you'd have to go back to 5/15 to see anything lower. For even more context, prior to 5/15, today's rates would have been the 3rd highest since August 1st, 2025.&
15th June, 26
Verification, MGIC Survey, Rocket Contest, Credit Reporting Tools; Agency Program Changes
This morning, I head to Honolulu for the MBA Hawai’i annual conference. The “Pineapple State” is known for banks and credit unions dominating residential lending. Robber Willie Sutton is famously quoted as saying, "I rob banks because that's where the money is." Large, unexpected moves in money make the headlines, and Saturday’s Commentary highlighted the collapse of a condominium property management company. Another headline is making the rounds where $17 million in escrow funds disappeared overnight: a Palm Beach law firm sued a bank over a cyber-attack. Ginnie Mae has gained a
Verification, MGIC Survey, Rocket Contest, Credit Reporting Tools; Agency Program Changes
This morning, I head to Honolulu for the MBA Hawai’i annual conference. The “Pineapple State” is known for banks and credit unions dominating residential lending. Robber Willie Sutton is famously quoted as saying, "I rob banks because that's where the money is." Large, unexpected moves in money make the headlines, and Saturday’s Commentary highlighted the collapse of a condominium property management company. Another headline is making the rounds where $17 million in escrow funds disappeared overnight: a Palm Beach law firm sued a bank over a cyber-attack. Ginnie Mae has gained a
15th June, 26
Near Best Levels in a Month as Peace Deal Materializes
Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for Friday. That fact, along with comments on a "done deal" from both sides, helped bonds rally sharply in overnight trading. 10yr yields dropped roughly 6bps and have corrected gradually since then. Yields remain nearly 4bps lower and MBS are starting out nearly a quarter point higher.
Near Best Levels in a Month as Peace Deal Materializes
Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for Friday. That fact, along with comments on a "done deal" from both sides, helped bonds rally sharply in overnight trading. 10yr yields dropped roughly 6bps and have corrected gradually since then. Yields remain nearly 4bps lower and MBS are starting out nearly a quarter point higher.