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12th December, 25
Anyone Who Tells You They Know What Happens Next For Rates is Lying
Friday saw mortgage rates move back up near the highest levels of the week, and thus the highest levels of the past 3 months. Thus ends another week where mortgage rates end higher despite a Fed rate cut. We've beaten this horse to death, but here are the two key reasons Fed rate cuts don't necessarily result in lower mortgage rates, in as few words as possible: Different Kinds of Rates Fed Funds Rate = loans of 24 hours or less. Mortgage rates = loans up to 30 years. Rates can have vastly different behavior when they apply to loans of vastly different time frames Vastly
Anyone Who Tells You They Know What Happens Next For Rates is Lying
Friday saw mortgage rates move back up near the highest levels of the week, and thus the highest levels of the past 3 months. Thus ends another week where mortgage rates end higher despite a Fed rate cut. We've beaten this horse to death, but here are the two key reasons Fed rate cuts don't necessarily result in lower mortgage rates, in as few words as possible: Different Kinds of Rates Fed Funds Rate = loans of 24 hours or less. Mortgage rates = loans up to 30 years. Rates can have vastly different behavior when they apply to loans of vastly different time frames Vastly
12th December, 25
Correspondent Products, STRATMOR on Borrower Psychology; Lender Tools; DSCR Appraisal Issues in Baltimore
“What happened with the DSCR appraisal issue in Baltimore earlier this year?” Good question. Baltimore is not alone: This week we have investors either pricing themselves out of, or ceasing loans from, the Philly market for certain non-owner loans.) The whole Baltimore thing seems to have quieted down, and up until recently the last news coming in October although this week along came, “Baltimore is striking fear into private lenders across the country.” “Over the past three years, businesses connected to Benjamin Eidlisz purchased more than 700 houses in Baltimore. Through a
Correspondent Products, STRATMOR on Borrower Psychology; Lender Tools; DSCR Appraisal Issues in Baltimore
“What happened with the DSCR appraisal issue in Baltimore earlier this year?” Good question. Baltimore is not alone: This week we have investors either pricing themselves out of, or ceasing loans from, the Philly market for certain non-owner loans.) The whole Baltimore thing seems to have quieted down, and up until recently the last news coming in October although this week along came, “Baltimore is striking fear into private lenders across the country.” “Over the past three years, businesses connected to Benjamin Eidlisz purchased more than 700 houses in Baltimore. Through a
12th December, 25
Choose Your Own Market Movement Adventure.
There's a noticeable divergence between long and short term bonds since the Fed announcement, and it's becoming more pronounced today. We can consider a few different reasons with the most basic being that the Fed rate cut outlook keeps shorter-term yields locked down at lower levels thus forcing the long end of the curve to absorb more of the selling impulse on selling days. As far as 2yr yields are concerned, it's not even really a selling day (they're currently DOWN microscopically). Meanwhile, 10yr yields are almost 4bps higher. We can also consider an underlying concern among
Choose Your Own Market Movement Adventure.
There's a noticeable divergence between long and short term bonds since the Fed announcement, and it's becoming more pronounced today. We can consider a few different reasons with the most basic being that the Fed rate cut outlook keeps shorter-term yields locked down at lower levels thus forcing the long end of the curve to absorb more of the selling impulse on selling days. As far as 2yr yields are concerned, it's not even really a selling day (they're currently DOWN microscopically). Meanwhile, 10yr yields are almost 4bps higher. We can also consider an underlying concern among
11th December, 25
Two-Way Trading But Not Much Day-Over-Day Movement
Two-Way Trading But Not Much Day-Over-Day Movement Bonds had a solid morning, adding moderately to yesterday's rally and taking yields well into the lowest levels since last Friday. But from just after the 9:30am NYSE open, bonds leaked slowly weaker, ultimately ending the day closer to unchanged levels. In the bigger picture, nothing interesting or significant happened, and December 16th (jobs report day) is set to be the only other obviously tradeable day of 2025. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 236k vs 220k f'cast Continued Claims 1838k vs 1950k f'cast Market Movement Recap 10:23 AM
Two-Way Trading But Not Much Day-Over-Day Movement
Two-Way Trading But Not Much Day-Over-Day Movement Bonds had a solid morning, adding moderately to yesterday's rally and taking yields well into the lowest levels since last Friday. But from just after the 9:30am NYSE open, bonds leaked slowly weaker, ultimately ending the day closer to unchanged levels. In the bigger picture, nothing interesting or significant happened, and December 16th (jobs report day) is set to be the only other obviously tradeable day of 2025. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 236k vs 220k f'cast Continued Claims 1838k vs 1950k f'cast Market Movement Recap 10:23 AM
11th December, 25
Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Levels of The Week
As is sometimes the case on the day following a Fed day, the bond market carried a bit more momentum in the same direction as yesterday afternoon. Fortunately, the momentum was toward lower rates this time around--a nice break from the past two Fed days which resulted in several days (and weeks) of higher rates. This leaves the average lender roughly in the middle of the range over the past 3 months. These are also the lowest levels seen since last Thursday for the average lender
Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Levels of The Week
As is sometimes the case on the day following a Fed day, the bond market carried a bit more momentum in the same direction as yesterday afternoon. Fortunately, the momentum was toward lower rates this time around--a nice break from the past two Fed days which resulted in several days (and weeks) of higher rates. This leaves the average lender roughly in the middle of the range over the past 3 months. These are also the lowest levels seen since last Thursday for the average lender
11th December, 25
Correspondent and Broker Products, LOS, Automation, FICO 10T, UAD 3.6 Tools
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software For some servicers, the idea of implementing workflow automation is both appealing and overwhelming. Often, knowing where to start is the most challenging part, especially when the path forward isn’t always obvious. Clarifire’s latest blog, “Three Cost-Saving Ways Servicers Are Using Workflow Automation,” explores real-world examples of how servicers are modernizing core processes with measurable results. From one-click trial modification letters to streamlined foreclosure collaboration and automated GSE exception handling, the blog
Correspondent and Broker Products, LOS, Automation, FICO 10T, UAD 3.6 Tools
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software For some servicers, the idea of implementing workflow automation is both appealing and overwhelming. Often, knowing where to start is the most challenging part, especially when the path forward isn’t always obvious. Clarifire’s latest blog, “Three Cost-Saving Ways Servicers Are Using Workflow Automation,” explores real-world examples of how servicers are modernizing core processes with measurable results. From one-click trial modification letters to streamlined foreclosure collaboration and automated GSE exception handling, the blog
11th December, 25
Follow-Through Rally. What's Up With Big Swings in Jobless Claims?
Bonds are adding moderate to yesterday's post-Fed gains. Most of today's rally has followed this morning's jobless claims data, but we wouldn't necessarily give it all the credit. This is a tricky week to try to make sense of jobless claims due to the very late Thanksgiving holiday this year. It threw a wrench in seasonal calculations. In a nutshell, last week's initial claims plummeted due to Thanksgiving and seasonal adjustments didn't help much because, on average, Thanksgiving falls on the 25th (thus, last week's claims were too late in the month to get much benefit from the
Follow-Through Rally. What's Up With Big Swings in Jobless Claims?
Bonds are adding moderate to yesterday's post-Fed gains. Most of today's rally has followed this morning's jobless claims data, but we wouldn't necessarily give it all the credit. This is a tricky week to try to make sense of jobless claims due to the very late Thanksgiving holiday this year. It threw a wrench in seasonal calculations. In a nutshell, last week's initial claims plummeted due to Thanksgiving and seasonal adjustments didn't help much because, on average, Thanksgiving falls on the 25th (thus, last week's claims were too late in the month to get much benefit from the
10th December, 25
Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved
Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved Today's gains ended up being all about Powell's press conference. While there were a few potentially friendly comments (current rates in high end of neutral range, recent job gains overstated, no decision yet on January, inflation coming down), we can also consider that Powell simply avoided the same sort of hawkish reminders seen in the last press conference. On a day where bonds had already been selling fairly aggressively for 2 weeks, this could be all the market needed to breathe a sigh of relief and reinforce the
Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved
Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved Today's gains ended up being all about Powell's press conference. While there were a few potentially friendly comments (current rates in high end of neutral range, recent job gains overstated, no decision yet on January, inflation coming down), we can also consider that Powell simply avoided the same sort of hawkish reminders seen in the last press conference. On a day where bonds had already been selling fairly aggressively for 2 weeks, this could be all the market needed to breathe a sigh of relief and reinforce the
10th December, 25
Mortgage Rates Improve After Fed Announcement
The Fed cut its policy rate by 0.25% today and mortgage rates moved lower after the announcement. That said, those two developments are not related. In fact, there was no movement in the bonds that underlie mortgage rates when the rate cut was announced. Instead, the market (and rates) moved in response to Fed Chair Powell's press conference. While there is a mistaken belief that such press conferences "always" result in upward pressure on rates, today shows they can go both ways. Key comments that may have helped: Powell: Job gains could have been overstated in recent months Powell: Growing
Mortgage Rates Improve After Fed Announcement
The Fed cut its policy rate by 0.25% today and mortgage rates moved lower after the announcement. That said, those two developments are not related. In fact, there was no movement in the bonds that underlie mortgage rates when the rate cut was announced. Instead, the market (and rates) moved in response to Fed Chair Powell's press conference. While there is a mistaken belief that such press conferences "always" result in upward pressure on rates, today shows they can go both ways. Key comments that may have helped: Powell: Job gains could have been overstated in recent months Powell: Growing
10th December, 25
Mortgage Apps Bounce Back, Led By Refi Reversal
Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity rose 4.8% last week, according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 5. Unadjusted applications jumped 49% from the prior week, reflecting a rebound following the Thanksgiving-related slowdown. The Refinance Index surged 14% from the previous week and remains 88% higher than the same week one year ago—another strong year-over-year showing as borrowers respond to modest rate improvement, particularly in FHA products. Purchase activity was softer on a seasonally adjusted basis, slipping 2% from the prior
Mortgage Apps Bounce Back, Led By Refi Reversal
Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity rose 4.8% last week, according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 5. Unadjusted applications jumped 49% from the prior week, reflecting a rebound following the Thanksgiving-related slowdown. The Refinance Index surged 14% from the previous week and remains 88% higher than the same week one year ago—another strong year-over-year showing as borrowers respond to modest rate improvement, particularly in FHA products. Purchase activity was softer on a seasonally adjusted basis, slipping 2% from the prior