Latest news
17th December, 25
Slightly More Focus Than Normal on Thursday's CPI
Slightly More Focus Than Normal on Thursday's CPI Wednesday ended up being an uneventful trading day with bonds mostly sideways and well within the recent trading range. This isn't hard to believe given the absence of any relevant market movers. Thursday could be different thanks to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of those reports that has occasionally swung for the fences, but that can also have almost no impact. The present example could receive a bit more focus than normal as it will be the first time we've seen this data since October 24th. In addition, recent Fed speeches have
Slightly More Focus Than Normal on Thursday's CPI
Slightly More Focus Than Normal on Thursday's CPI Wednesday ended up being an uneventful trading day with bonds mostly sideways and well within the recent trading range. This isn't hard to believe given the absence of any relevant market movers. Thursday could be different thanks to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of those reports that has occasionally swung for the fences, but that can also have almost no impact. The present example could receive a bit more focus than normal as it will be the first time we've seen this data since October 24th. In addition, recent Fed speeches have
17th December, 25
Mortgage Rates Unchanged Ahead of Important Inflation Data
Mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday's levels for the average lender. This wasn't a huge surprise considering the absence of any high stakes economic data, but tomorrow could be a different story. Rates are driven by bonds and the economy is one of the primary sources of motivation for the bond market. In general, the two reports that get more of the bond market's attention than any others are the jobs report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The jobs report obviously pertains to the labor market. This is the report that came out yesterday and although it didn'
Mortgage Rates Unchanged Ahead of Important Inflation Data
Mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday's levels for the average lender. This wasn't a huge surprise considering the absence of any high stakes economic data, but tomorrow could be a different story. Rates are driven by bonds and the economy is one of the primary sources of motivation for the bond market. In general, the two reports that get more of the bond market's attention than any others are the jobs report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The jobs report obviously pertains to the labor market. This is the report that came out yesterday and although it didn'
17th December, 25
AI Automation, U/W, CRM, Agency CEO Pay Cap; UAD 3.6 Update; Economic Jitters
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software Warehouse lending got a major upgrade in 2025. OptiFunder has transformed the industry with the first fully connected warehouse ecosystem that brings originators and warehouse lenders together. Its WMS and Greyhound platforms automate everything, from funding requests to paydowns, so no more delays or endless spreadsheets. Originators get smart AI-driven warehouse allocation and automated workflows, while lenders enjoy a modern, secure system that makes collaboration effortless. When combined, WMS and Greyhound deliver the industry’s first
AI Automation, U/W, CRM, Agency CEO Pay Cap; UAD 3.6 Update; Economic Jitters
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software Warehouse lending got a major upgrade in 2025. OptiFunder has transformed the industry with the first fully connected warehouse ecosystem that brings originators and warehouse lenders together. Its WMS and Greyhound platforms automate everything, from funding requests to paydowns, so no more delays or endless spreadsheets. Originators get smart AI-driven warehouse allocation and automated workflows, while lenders enjoy a modern, secure system that makes collaboration effortless. When combined, WMS and Greyhound deliver the industry’s first
17th December, 25
Quiet Calendar Ahead of Thursday's CPI
Wednesday is largely a placeholder as 2025's relevant trading days evaporate. Apart from the year-end influences on the 29th-31st, Thursday's CPI arguably represents the last opportunity to trade big ticket econ data until the early January jobs report. CPI has stepped in to fill the shoes that yesterday's jobs report was apparently unable to fill. Specifically, it will round out the first half of the Fed's next round of rate cut deliberations in late January. As a placeholder, today's trading is meaningless if yields remain under 4.20 and above 4.10. With a modest morning recovery
Quiet Calendar Ahead of Thursday's CPI
Wednesday is largely a placeholder as 2025's relevant trading days evaporate. Apart from the year-end influences on the 29th-31st, Thursday's CPI arguably represents the last opportunity to trade big ticket econ data until the early January jobs report. CPI has stepped in to fill the shoes that yesterday's jobs report was apparently unable to fill. Specifically, it will round out the first half of the Fed's next round of rate cut deliberations in late January. As a placeholder, today's trading is meaningless if yields remain under 4.20 and above 4.10. With a modest morning recovery
16th December, 25
Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally
Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally If the only metric from this morning's jobs report was the uptick in unemployment from 4.4 to 4.6%, and if that was the last of this week's big ticket econ data, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a more aggressive rate rally. As it stands, unemployment was tempered by a higher participation rate and less dire unrounded numbers (taken together, these actually made unemployment closer to unchanged). Add in stronger payroll growth, a surge in core retail sales, and the need to wait and see how Thursday's CPI comes out, and the choppy,
Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally
Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally If the only metric from this morning's jobs report was the uptick in unemployment from 4.4 to 4.6%, and if that was the last of this week's big ticket econ data, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a more aggressive rate rally. As it stands, unemployment was tempered by a higher participation rate and less dire unrounded numbers (taken together, these actually made unemployment closer to unchanged). Add in stronger payroll growth, a surge in core retail sales, and the need to wait and see how Thursday's CPI comes out, and the choppy,
16th December, 25
Mortgage Rates Only Slightly Lower, But Volatility Risks Remain
There was a decent chance that rates would have made a fairly big move today in response to the release of November's jobs report. This is the most important economic data as far as rates are concerned and today's was the first full release since before the government shutdown. In general, weaker employment data promotes lower rates and vice versa. While today's jobs report was weaker on balance, it wasn't weak enough to unequivocally shift the narrative of a labor market that is merely cooling in a gradual and manageable way. The average lender moved back down to levels that were close to
Mortgage Rates Only Slightly Lower, But Volatility Risks Remain
There was a decent chance that rates would have made a fairly big move today in response to the release of November's jobs report. This is the most important economic data as far as rates are concerned and today's was the first full release since before the government shutdown. In general, weaker employment data promotes lower rates and vice versa. While today's jobs report was weaker on balance, it wasn't weak enough to unequivocally shift the narrative of a labor market that is merely cooling in a gradual and manageable way. The average lender moved back down to levels that were close to
16th December, 25
Cap Markets Education, Servicing, Borrower Monitoring Products; Marketing Thoughts for 2026
Running a mortgage company, turns out, isn’t free, and lenders are trying to cut costs and increase efficiency everywhere. For example (and this is not a paid ad), Lenders One offers some member benefits that may be of interest: L1 Credit for credit reports and fraud tools, L1 Flood for NFIP compliance, and L1 Insurance to help borrowers get competitive homeowner rates. L1 has exclusive discounts from 90+ providers and keeps your team compliant with complimentary, NMLS-approved continuing education. The Lenders One mission is simple: reduce costs, increase efficiency, and drive profitability
Cap Markets Education, Servicing, Borrower Monitoring Products; Marketing Thoughts for 2026
Running a mortgage company, turns out, isn’t free, and lenders are trying to cut costs and increase efficiency everywhere. For example (and this is not a paid ad), Lenders One offers some member benefits that may be of interest: L1 Credit for credit reports and fraud tools, L1 Flood for NFIP compliance, and L1 Insurance to help borrowers get competitive homeowner rates. L1 has exclusive discounts from 90+ providers and keeps your team compliant with complimentary, NMLS-approved continuing education. The Lenders One mission is simple: reduce costs, increase efficiency, and drive profitability
16th December, 25
Frustratingly Flat After Deceptively Friendly Jobs Report
If there was one metric in this morning's data that should be helping the bond market, it's the uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November (a new cycle high). This is mitigated somewhat by the uptick in participation rate (0.1%) and the slightly higher payroll count (64k vs 50k f'cast). In addition, BLS noted lower response rates for the household survey (unemployment rate) and a generally unknown impact from the government shutdown. Perhaps important is the fact that the unrounded unemployment rate only rose 0.13% versus the 0.2% rounded figure. Bond market
Frustratingly Flat After Deceptively Friendly Jobs Report
If there was one metric in this morning's data that should be helping the bond market, it's the uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November (a new cycle high). This is mitigated somewhat by the uptick in participation rate (0.1%) and the slightly higher payroll count (64k vs 50k f'cast). In addition, BLS noted lower response rates for the household survey (unemployment rate) and a generally unknown impact from the government shutdown. Perhaps important is the fact that the unrounded unemployment rate only rose 0.13% versus the 0.2% rounded figure. Bond market
15th December, 25
Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck
Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck Monday ended up being a forgettable December trading day with modest overnight gains eroding to roughly unchanged levels by the 3pm close. There were no catalysts worth discussing, and even if there were, they'd pale in comparison to the inbound econ data. Tuesday morning brings the first post-shutdown jobs report, albeit a week and a half later than normal. With payrolls counts not carrying as much weight as they used to, don't be surprised to see an increased focus on the unemployment rate. While some of the full-fledged reaction could be held back
Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck
Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck Monday ended up being a forgettable December trading day with modest overnight gains eroding to roughly unchanged levels by the 3pm close. There were no catalysts worth discussing, and even if there were, they'd pale in comparison to the inbound econ data. Tuesday morning brings the first post-shutdown jobs report, albeit a week and a half later than normal. With payrolls counts not carrying as much weight as they used to, don't be surprised to see an increased focus on the unemployment rate. While some of the full-fledged reaction could be held back
15th December, 25
Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower as Volatility Risks Increase
Mortgage rates were just slightly lower to start the new week. This leaves the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate almost dead center in the narrow range that's been intact since early September. The absence of any significant movement on Monday is a logical outcome given the absence of any major economic data releases or headlines. But Tuesday could be a different story. At 8:30am ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the first jobs report with data collected after the government shutdown. This report normally would have come out on December 5th, but by the time the
Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower as Volatility Risks Increase
Mortgage rates were just slightly lower to start the new week. This leaves the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate almost dead center in the narrow range that's been intact since early September. The absence of any significant movement on Monday is a logical outcome given the absence of any major economic data releases or headlines. But Tuesday could be a different story. At 8:30am ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the first jobs report with data collected after the government shutdown. This report normally would have come out on December 5th, but by the time the