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15th January, 26
Data-Driven Weakness
Data-Driven Weakness It was a reasonably straightforward day for the bond market. Trading was flat overnight, then weaker after the 8:30am Jobless Claims data. That report is hit and miss as a market mover, but a sub-200k print without any recent seasonal spike is certainly worth a few bps of weakness. Impacts were most notable in Fed Funds Rate expectations, which have now fully eliminated any possibility for a January cut and lowered the probability of a March cut from over 40% last week to under 20% today. In the bigger picture, longer-term rates remain squarely range-bound and MBS
Data-Driven Weakness
Data-Driven Weakness It was a reasonably straightforward day for the bond market. Trading was flat overnight, then weaker after the 8:30am Jobless Claims data. That report is hit and miss as a market mover, but a sub-200k print without any recent seasonal spike is certainly worth a few bps of weakness. Impacts were most notable in Fed Funds Rate expectations, which have now fully eliminated any possibility for a January cut and lowered the probability of a March cut from over 40% last week to under 20% today. In the bigger picture, longer-term rates remain squarely range-bound and MBS
15th January, 26
Mortgage Rates Higher For Some Lenders and Lower For Others
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower for the average lender today, but higher for others. The distinction is whether the lender in question made a late-day adjustment yesterday afternoon. At the time, the underlying market for mortgage bonds was improving somewhat sharply. This prompted several lenders to drop rates before the end of business. Those lenders had to bump rates back up this morning as the bond market was in weaker territory this morning. Other lenders--those who didn't make any changes yesterday afternoon--were able to nudge rates modestly lower today as this morning's
Mortgage Rates Higher For Some Lenders and Lower For Others
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower for the average lender today, but higher for others. The distinction is whether the lender in question made a late-day adjustment yesterday afternoon. At the time, the underlying market for mortgage bonds was improving somewhat sharply. This prompted several lenders to drop rates before the end of business. Those lenders had to bump rates back up this morning as the bond market was in weaker territory this morning. Other lenders--those who didn't make any changes yesterday afternoon--were able to nudge rates modestly lower today as this morning's
15th January, 26
Hedging, Corresp. and Broker, Servicing, Quality Management, Fraud Prevention Products
While rumors swirl that Jerome Powell is paying his own legal bills while dealing with the DOJ, and the Administration is ruminating on using 401(k) or 529 funds to buy a home, in the land of “concrete news” the office-to-apartment and condo conversion trend is accelerating, with the number of units repurposed from office buildings more than tripling since 2022 and the conversion pipeline expanding by 28 percent between 2024 and 2025. Do you have the loan products for them? The total pipeline has now reached 70,700 units, with major metros like New York (8,310 units), Washington, D.C. (6,
Hedging, Corresp. and Broker, Servicing, Quality Management, Fraud Prevention Products
While rumors swirl that Jerome Powell is paying his own legal bills while dealing with the DOJ, and the Administration is ruminating on using 401(k) or 529 funds to buy a home, in the land of “concrete news” the office-to-apartment and condo conversion trend is accelerating, with the number of units repurposed from office buildings more than tripling since 2022 and the conversion pipeline expanding by 28 percent between 2024 and 2025. Do you have the loan products for them? The total pipeline has now reached 70,700 units, with major metros like New York (8,310 units), Washington, D.C. (6,
15th January, 26
Stronger Jobless Claims Leads to Early Selling
The weekly jobless claims data (not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report) is hit and miss when it comes to its propensity to move the bond market. On occasions where the results fall far from the forecast, we tend to see moderate reactions. Odds increase when the headline breaks under the psychological level of 200k. With that, today's 198k print is having a bit of a negative impact on bonds at 8:30am, taking the market from roughly unchanged overnight levels into slightly weaker territory. A stronger Philly Fed index offered no solace
Stronger Jobless Claims Leads to Early Selling
The weekly jobless claims data (not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report) is hit and miss when it comes to its propensity to move the bond market. On occasions where the results fall far from the forecast, we tend to see moderate reactions. Odds increase when the headline breaks under the psychological level of 200k. With that, today's 198k print is having a bit of a negative impact on bonds at 8:30am, taking the market from roughly unchanged overnight levels into slightly weaker territory. A stronger Philly Fed index offered no solace
14th January, 26
Some Asymmetric Risk When it Comes to Locking vs Floating
Some Asymmetric Risk When it Comes to Locking vs Floating Bonds improved today mostly in response to heavy stock losses creating some safe haven buying demand. Data wasn't heavily traded, but it didn't do any harm. Producer Prices were mixed, with an upward revision in September being offset by lower-than-expected inflation in November. Retail Sales (also November data) beat at the headline, but the control group (excludes autos/gas/building materials) was in line with estimates and October's number was revised lower. Despite the bond gains, mortgage rates were unchanged. This offers a
Some Asymmetric Risk When it Comes to Locking vs Floating
Some Asymmetric Risk When it Comes to Locking vs Floating Bonds improved today mostly in response to heavy stock losses creating some safe haven buying demand. Data wasn't heavily traded, but it didn't do any harm. Producer Prices were mixed, with an upward revision in September being offset by lower-than-expected inflation in November. Retail Sales (also November data) beat at the headline, but the control group (excludes autos/gas/building materials) was in line with estimates and October's number was revised lower. Despite the bond gains, mortgage rates were unchanged. This offers a
14th January, 26
Mortgage Rates Unchanged Despite Bond Market Improvement
Trading levels in the bond market directly impact the rates that mortgage lenders can offer. This is why rates moved so much lower after last week's news regarding planned purchases of $200bln in mortgage backed bonds. But bonds aren't the only input for rates, and those other inputs can make for days like today where bonds are noticeably better while mortgage rates refuse to follow. Those other inputs aren't as easy to observe and quantify as the objective trading levels in the bond market, but in the current case, we can assume that at least some of the explanation has to do with
Mortgage Rates Unchanged Despite Bond Market Improvement
Trading levels in the bond market directly impact the rates that mortgage lenders can offer. This is why rates moved so much lower after last week's news regarding planned purchases of $200bln in mortgage backed bonds. But bonds aren't the only input for rates, and those other inputs can make for days like today where bonds are noticeably better while mortgage rates refuse to follow. Those other inputs aren't as easy to observe and quantify as the objective trading levels in the bond market, but in the current case, we can assume that at least some of the explanation has to do with
14th January, 26
Existing-Home Sales Jump 5.1% in December, Strongest Pace in Nearly Three Years
Existing-home sales posted a notable year-end rebound in December, jumping 5.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). After adjusting for seasonal factors, December sales were the strongest in nearly three years, marking a broad-based improvement across all four regions. “2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and
Existing-Home Sales Jump 5.1% in December, Strongest Pace in Nearly Three Years
Existing-home sales posted a notable year-end rebound in December, jumping 5.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). After adjusting for seasonal factors, December sales were the strongest in nearly three years, marking a broad-based improvement across all four regions. “2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and
14th January, 26
Bond Buying Announcement Leads Surge in Mortgage Apps
As we reported last week, the announcement that Fannie and Freddie would buy $200bln in mortgage-backed securities led to a precipitous drop in rates last week. For most of Friday, the top tier 30yr fixed rate was at 5.99% for the average lender according to MND's daily mortgage rate index--the lowest in roughly 3 years. And that single day of ridiculously low rates was enough to visibly juice application activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 28.5% jump in applications for the week ending January 9th. One small caveat: the prior week’s data included an adjustment
Bond Buying Announcement Leads Surge in Mortgage Apps
As we reported last week, the announcement that Fannie and Freddie would buy $200bln in mortgage-backed securities led to a precipitous drop in rates last week. For most of Friday, the top tier 30yr fixed rate was at 5.99% for the average lender according to MND's daily mortgage rate index--the lowest in roughly 3 years. And that single day of ridiculously low rates was enough to visibly juice application activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 28.5% jump in applications for the week ending January 9th. One small caveat: the prior week’s data included an adjustment
14th January, 26
Hedging, Warehouse, BBYS, HELOC Products; Mortgage Apps Jump; Inflation Data Tame; FHA Delinquencies
In our world, no one expects lender and/or vendor mergers and acquisitions to diminish in 2026, and in today’s Mortgage Matters at 2PM ET, presented by Lenders One, Garth Graham, Senior Partner at STRATMOR Group, will break down key M&A trends, recap the pivotal developments of 2025, and share insights on what lenders can expect in 2026. (Garth leads the firm’s M&A practice and advises many of the industry’s top independent and bank-owned mortgage lenders.) We’ve all seen the M&A that is going on in banks. Cashless banks? People get confused and society is going to the dogs
Hedging, Warehouse, BBYS, HELOC Products; Mortgage Apps Jump; Inflation Data Tame; FHA Delinquencies
In our world, no one expects lender and/or vendor mergers and acquisitions to diminish in 2026, and in today’s Mortgage Matters at 2PM ET, presented by Lenders One, Garth Graham, Senior Partner at STRATMOR Group, will break down key M&A trends, recap the pivotal developments of 2025, and share insights on what lenders can expect in 2026. (Garth leads the firm’s M&A practice and advises many of the industry’s top independent and bank-owned mortgage lenders.) We’ve all seen the M&A that is going on in banks. Cashless banks? People get confused and society is going to the dogs
14th January, 26
Today's Data is Proving Less Tradeable, But Doing No Harm
10yr Treasury futures volumes spiked about 5 times higher in the 2 minutes following yesterday's CPI than in the 2 minutes following this morning's PPI/Retail Sales combo. Annual PPI was the highest since July with headline and core both at 3.0%. But November's results were lower than expected (core m/m at 0.0 vs 0.2). It was a big upward revision to September that caused the uptick in the annual number. Retail sales came out a bit stronger at the headline level, but the core was as-expected and the previous month's core was revised down 0.2%. All told, there's no obviously
Today's Data is Proving Less Tradeable, But Doing No Harm
10yr Treasury futures volumes spiked about 5 times higher in the 2 minutes following yesterday's CPI than in the 2 minutes following this morning's PPI/Retail Sales combo. Annual PPI was the highest since July with headline and core both at 3.0%. But November's results were lower than expected (core m/m at 0.0 vs 0.2). It was a big upward revision to September that caused the uptick in the annual number. Retail sales came out a bit stronger at the headline level, but the core was as-expected and the previous month's core was revised down 0.2%. All told, there's no obviously