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28th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Unchanged Versus Wednesday
As is most often the case, the Friday after Thanksgiving added nothing interesting to mortgage rate momentum. The average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate is exactly where it was on Wednesday. The underlying bond market closes early today, but will be fully open next week. At that point, we're likely to see some volatility return for rates, depending on the results of economic reports.
Mortgage Rates Unchanged Versus Wednesday
As is most often the case, the Friday after Thanksgiving added nothing interesting to mortgage rate momentum. The average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate is exactly where it was on Wednesday. The underlying bond market closes early today, but will be fully open next week. At that point, we're likely to see some volatility return for rates, depending on the results of economic reports.
28th November, 25
Open But Not Really Open
Open But Not Really Open This is just a reminder that the Friday after Thanksgiving is the most useless and inconsequential trading day of the year. In very rare cases, movement can be tied to actual events/data, but that's not the case today. We do not publish detailed commentary on this particular Friday unless something interesting is happening. We're only publishing this to let you know we're watching and still not seeing anything interesting. Market Movement Recap 10:03 AM sideways overnight and modestly weaker so far. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.7bps
Open But Not Really Open
Open But Not Really Open This is just a reminder that the Friday after Thanksgiving is the most useless and inconsequential trading day of the year. In very rare cases, movement can be tied to actual events/data, but that's not the case today. We do not publish detailed commentary on this particular Friday unless something interesting is happening. We're only publishing this to let you know we're watching and still not seeing anything interesting. Market Movement Recap 10:03 AM sideways overnight and modestly weaker so far. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.7bps
28th November, 25
Coast to Coast Jobs; Hodge Podge of Economic News; Improved Pull Through = Lower Cost Per Loan
When did our business start with the catchy slogans? Stay alive in ’25? Stay in the mix in ’26. It’ll be heaven in ’27. How about, “Try to earn a little revenue every day, day after day.”? Smart mortgage bankers look at units, not dollar volumes. If an LO does $5 million in a month, is that one $5 million loan or ten $500,000 loans? And if your cost per loan is $11,000, on a $5 million loan that is good, since the monthly hit is $11,000, but on the ten loans it would be $110,000. Cost per loan… what are you trying to do to improve your pull through, and not spending money on
Coast to Coast Jobs; Hodge Podge of Economic News; Improved Pull Through = Lower Cost Per Loan
When did our business start with the catchy slogans? Stay alive in ’25? Stay in the mix in ’26. It’ll be heaven in ’27. How about, “Try to earn a little revenue every day, day after day.”? Smart mortgage bankers look at units, not dollar volumes. If an LO does $5 million in a month, is that one $5 million loan or ten $500,000 loans? And if your cost per loan is $11,000, on a $5 million loan that is good, since the monthly hit is $11,000, but on the ten loans it would be $110,000. Cost per loan… what are you trying to do to improve your pull through, and not spending money on
26th November, 25
Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence
Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence Although there was a brief negative reaction to this morning's economic data, the impact was minimal. Random holiday-week volatility accounted for bigger swings, but those swings ultimately canceled each other out. By the 3pm close, bonds were close enough to unchanged levels. That makes today truly forgettable in the bigger picture. Trading doesn't get real/serious again until December. NOTE: Friday is technically open until 2pm ET, but as is our custom, we will only publish commentary on an "as-needed" basis (i.e. if the movement is minimal
Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence
Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence Although there was a brief negative reaction to this morning's economic data, the impact was minimal. Random holiday-week volatility accounted for bigger swings, but those swings ultimately canceled each other out. By the 3pm close, bonds were close enough to unchanged levels. That makes today truly forgettable in the bigger picture. Trading doesn't get real/serious again until December. NOTE: Friday is technically open until 2pm ET, but as is our custom, we will only publish commentary on an "as-needed" basis (i.e. if the movement is minimal
26th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher, But Remain Near Long-Term Lows
Wednesday was far less eventful than the first two days of the week as far as mortgage rates were concerned. The average lender raised rates just a hair, but apart from yesterday, these are the lowest levels in a month and very close to the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Bond markets and mortgage lenders will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. While Friday is technically open, 9 times out of 10, it may as well not be. In other words, the Friday after Thanksgiving rarely sees any meaningful movement in mortgage rates or the underlying bond market.
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher, But Remain Near Long-Term Lows
Wednesday was far less eventful than the first two days of the week as far as mortgage rates were concerned. The average lender raised rates just a hair, but apart from yesterday, these are the lowest levels in a month and very close to the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Bond markets and mortgage lenders will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. While Friday is technically open, 9 times out of 10, it may as well not be. In other words, the Friday after Thanksgiving rarely sees any meaningful movement in mortgage rates or the underlying bond market.
26th November, 25
Credit Union Compliance, HELOC Products; Conventional Conforming Loan Limits and Other Fannie/Freddie News
The new phone books are here, the new phone books are here! Oh, wait a minute. The new conventional conforming loan limits are here! The new conventional conforming loan limits are here! True, lenders that are entirely focused on non-Agency products like non-QM (without many of the loan level price adjustments or gfees) may not care too much, but for most, Freddie Mac’s and Fannie Mae’s changes are followed closely. For 2026 we’re up from 2025’s $806,500 to $832,750. This beats the $819,000 by about $13k that many lenders and investors moved to in late September/early October. They can
Credit Union Compliance, HELOC Products; Conventional Conforming Loan Limits and Other Fannie/Freddie News
The new phone books are here, the new phone books are here! Oh, wait a minute. The new conventional conforming loan limits are here! The new conventional conforming loan limits are here! True, lenders that are entirely focused on non-Agency products like non-QM (without many of the loan level price adjustments or gfees) may not care too much, but for most, Freddie Mac’s and Fannie Mae’s changes are followed closely. For 2026 we’re up from 2025’s $806,500 to $832,750. This beats the $819,000 by about $13k that many lenders and investors moved to in late September/early October. They can
26th November, 25
Stronger Data. Weaker Start For Bonds
Bonds were just slightly weaker overnight but are losing more ground in early trading. The culprit: both of this morning's 8:30am ET economic releases. Jobless Claims data is probably the bigger deal as it continues to show no signs of labor market distress (216k vs 225k f'cast). The other report, Durable Goods, is more stale (pre-shutdown), but was also clearly upbeat with the core cap-ex figure coming in at a robust 0.9% vs 0.2% f'cast. The resulting sell-off in bonds is minimal but not massive. 10yr yields are up only 2.5bps at 4.021 and MBS are down less than an eighth.
Stronger Data. Weaker Start For Bonds
Bonds were just slightly weaker overnight but are losing more ground in early trading. The culprit: both of this morning's 8:30am ET economic releases. Jobless Claims data is probably the bigger deal as it continues to show no signs of labor market distress (216k vs 225k f'cast). The other report, Durable Goods, is more stale (pre-shutdown), but was also clearly upbeat with the core cap-ex figure coming in at a robust 0.9% vs 0.2% f'cast. The resulting sell-off in bonds is minimal but not massive. 10yr yields are up only 2.5bps at 4.021 and MBS are down less than an eighth.
25th November, 25
Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month
Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month Bonds improved only moderately on Tuesday in a move that's just as easily chalked up to random holiday-week volatility as any of the day's data/events. If we're determined to give credit to particulars, we can cite things like the 13.5k decline in weekly ADP payrolls, or the market's favorable reaction to rumors that Kevin Hassett is the front-runner to be the next Fed Chair (Hasset is assumed to be extremely dovish). Most notably, bonds took no damage from another day of upward momentum in stock prices. Yields closed out with 10s right at 4.0%--the
Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month
Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month Bonds improved only moderately on Tuesday in a move that's just as easily chalked up to random holiday-week volatility as any of the day's data/events. If we're determined to give credit to particulars, we can cite things like the 13.5k decline in weekly ADP payrolls, or the market's favorable reaction to rumors that Kevin Hassett is the front-runner to be the next Fed Chair (Hasset is assumed to be extremely dovish). Most notably, bonds took no damage from another day of upward momentum in stock prices. Yields closed out with 10s right at 4.0%--the
25th November, 25
Lowest Mortgage Rates Since 10/28 And Very Close to 3-Year Lows
Mortgage rates moved nicely lower on Tuesday with the average lender very close to the 2025 lows seen in late October. These levels are effectively right in line with the lowest since late 2022. If today's drop seems abrupt, that's because it is. In fact, it's a bigger drop than the underlying bond market justifies. There's a reason for this and we covered it in detail back in September: Why Rates Seem to Drop More Quickly as They Approach Certain Thresholds. Rather than credit any of the recent underlying events, the improvement in rates/bonds has more to do with idiosyncratic trading
Lowest Mortgage Rates Since 10/28 And Very Close to 3-Year Lows
Mortgage rates moved nicely lower on Tuesday with the average lender very close to the 2025 lows seen in late October. These levels are effectively right in line with the lowest since late 2022. If today's drop seems abrupt, that's because it is. In fact, it's a bigger drop than the underlying bond market justifies. There's a reason for this and we covered it in detail back in September: Why Rates Seem to Drop More Quickly as They Approach Certain Thresholds. Rather than credit any of the recent underlying events, the improvement in rates/bonds has more to do with idiosyncratic trading
25th November, 25
Conforming Loan Limit Rises to $832,750 Amid Lowest Home Price Growth Since 2012
Both the FHFA and the S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller home-price indices released new data this week. The message remains consistent: home prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of appreciation continues to slow. FHFA’s national index shows prices up 1.7% year-over-year and flat 0.0% month-over-month in September after August was revised to 0.0%. The stagnation in monthly movement reflects a clear deceleration taking hold across most regions. The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a 1.4% annual gain in September, down from 1.6% in the previous month. On a seasonally adjusted
Conforming Loan Limit Rises to $832,750 Amid Lowest Home Price Growth Since 2012
Both the FHFA and the S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller home-price indices released new data this week. The message remains consistent: home prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of appreciation continues to slow. FHFA’s national index shows prices up 1.7% year-over-year and flat 0.0% month-over-month in September after August was revised to 0.0%. The stagnation in monthly movement reflects a clear deceleration taking hold across most regions. The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a 1.4% annual gain in September, down from 1.6% in the previous month. On a seasonally adjusted