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7th May, 26
Another Mid-Day Reversal. Does Jobs Report Even Matter?
Another Mid-Day Reversal Driven by Dueling Headlines The overnight session featured a modest but clearly-defined rally in response to hopeful headlines on the Iran war. But as early a 9am ET, a complete reversal was beginning to take shape. Bonds remained in positive territory until the 11am hour when war headlines kicked selling into higher gear. Specifically, reports suggested Iran rejected the U.S. framework that helped bonds overnight. Separate news cited CIA sources, claiming Iran can withstand a Hormuz blockade for months. Selling continued in the afternoon on reports that had more to do
Another Mid-Day Reversal. Does Jobs Report Even Matter?
Another Mid-Day Reversal Driven by Dueling Headlines The overnight session featured a modest but clearly-defined rally in response to hopeful headlines on the Iran war. But as early a 9am ET, a complete reversal was beginning to take shape. Bonds remained in positive territory until the 11am hour when war headlines kicked selling into higher gear. Specifically, reports suggested Iran rejected the U.S. framework that helped bonds overnight. Separate news cited CIA sources, claiming Iran can withstand a Hormuz blockade for months. Selling continued in the afternoon on reports that had more to do
7th May, 26
Mortgage Rates Erase Early Improvement
The day began on a fairly hopeful note for the mortgage market. During overnight trading hours, the bond market improved following a report regarding a peace framework sent to Iran by The U.S. When bonds improve, rates fall, all else equal. The gains were modest, but they allowed the average lender to set their first rates of the day at slightly lower levels compared to yesterday. Lenders prefer a "one and done" strategy when it comes to setting mortgage rates for the day, but they will make mid-day changes if the underlying market moves enough. The underlying market began moving more
Mortgage Rates Erase Early Improvement
The day began on a fairly hopeful note for the mortgage market. During overnight trading hours, the bond market improved following a report regarding a peace framework sent to Iran by The U.S. When bonds improve, rates fall, all else equal. The gains were modest, but they allowed the average lender to set their first rates of the day at slightly lower levels compared to yesterday. Lenders prefer a "one and done" strategy when it comes to setting mortgage rates for the day, but they will make mid-day changes if the underlying market moves enough. The underlying market began moving more
7th May, 26
Hedging and Secondary, Verification, AI, Reverse, Ops Tools; Earnings; Market Muddle
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services Spring homebuying season is in full swing, and for many lenders, that also means a surge in home equity demand as borrowers tap rising property values. But growth can expose cracks. Every handoff, re-entry, and system switch adds time and increases the risk of human error. FirstClose is working to change that with its upcoming integration with MeridianLink Mortgage. By bringing purpose-built order management directly into the LOS, lenders can streamline valuations, settlement, and vendor coordination without leaving their existing workflow.
Hedging and Secondary, Verification, AI, Reverse, Ops Tools; Earnings; Market Muddle
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services Spring homebuying season is in full swing, and for many lenders, that also means a surge in home equity demand as borrowers tap rising property values. But growth can expose cracks. Every handoff, re-entry, and system switch adds time and increases the risk of human error. FirstClose is working to change that with its upcoming integration with MeridianLink Mortgage. By bringing purpose-built order management directly into the LOS, lenders can streamline valuations, settlement, and vendor coordination without leaving their existing workflow.
7th May, 26
More Peace Deal Hope, More Overnight Gains
Bonds and oil rallied again in the overnight session, though not as swiftly as they did yesterday. News was thinner, but there was still an obvious catalyst just before 3am with a WSJ report that the U.S. provided Iran a detailed framework to end the war. The line item that caught the market's attention was a change in the moratorium on uranium enrichment. Previously, it was permanent, but the new framework calls for 20 years. 10yr yields rallied several bps on the news and oil prices moved down about 4 dollars. There hasn't been much volatility in bonds since then with 8:30am data proving to
More Peace Deal Hope, More Overnight Gains
Bonds and oil rallied again in the overnight session, though not as swiftly as they did yesterday. News was thinner, but there was still an obvious catalyst just before 3am with a WSJ report that the U.S. provided Iran a detailed framework to end the war. The line item that caught the market's attention was a change in the moratorium on uranium enrichment. Previously, it was permanent, but the new framework calls for 20 years. 10yr yields rallied several bps on the news and oil prices moved down about 4 dollars. There hasn't been much volatility in bonds since then with 8:30am data proving to
6th May, 26
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day The entirety of the domestic trading session was very flat compared to the ground covered during the overnight session. Pre-market headlines regarding a potential peace deal accounted for a 7bp drop in 10yr yields and 3/8th point improvement in MBS. 10s gained about 1 more bp by the close and MBS added another eighth of a point, bringing to total rally over half a point on the day as of 4pm ET. There were no other notable market movers by the time domestic trading hours began. The rally speaks to the likelihood that an official peace deal could
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day The entirety of the domestic trading session was very flat compared to the ground covered during the overnight session. Pre-market headlines regarding a potential peace deal accounted for a 7bp drop in 10yr yields and 3/8th point improvement in MBS. 10s gained about 1 more bp by the close and MBS added another eighth of a point, bringing to total rally over half a point on the day as of 4pm ET. There were no other notable market movers by the time domestic trading hours began. The rally speaks to the likelihood that an official peace deal could
6th May, 26
Mortgage Rates Make a More Serious Recovery
Mortgage rates spiked sharply on Monday, hitting the highest levels in more than a month as escalation fears ramped up surrounding the Iran war. Yesterday technically saw some recovery, but it may as well have been an "unchanged" day. Now today, we're seeing a more legitimate recovery with the average lender back down to last Friday's levels. The move follows a drop in oil prices inspired by progress toward a peace agreement. News came out overnight that The U.S. and Iran were close to signing a one-page memo outlining a more formal peace agreement. While full details would take time to hammer
Mortgage Rates Make a More Serious Recovery
Mortgage rates spiked sharply on Monday, hitting the highest levels in more than a month as escalation fears ramped up surrounding the Iran war. Yesterday technically saw some recovery, but it may as well have been an "unchanged" day. Now today, we're seeing a more legitimate recovery with the average lender back down to last Friday's levels. The move follows a drop in oil prices inspired by progress toward a peace agreement. News came out overnight that The U.S. and Iran were close to signing a one-page memo outlining a more formal peace agreement. While full details would take time to hammer
6th May, 26
TBA Settlement, Non-Agency, Due Diligence, AI, Warehouse Tools; How Old is Your House?
“What do you call an aging actor who has finally paid off his house? Mortgage freeman.” Servicing is a highly important component of that, and I was fortunate to attend Sagent Ignite in Phoenix yesterday; we have a special live podcast today that was recorded from the event. Mortgagees follow demographics, whether it be aging owners or aging houses. Lenders know that there are plenty of old homeowners who have plenty of equity. GreenPath Financial Wellness (a nonprofit approved by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development -HUD - and the National Foundation for Credit Counseling
TBA Settlement, Non-Agency, Due Diligence, AI, Warehouse Tools; How Old is Your House?
“What do you call an aging actor who has finally paid off his house? Mortgage freeman.” Servicing is a highly important component of that, and I was fortunate to attend Sagent Ignite in Phoenix yesterday; we have a special live podcast today that was recorded from the event. Mortgagees follow demographics, whether it be aging owners or aging houses. Lenders know that there are plenty of old homeowners who have plenty of equity. GreenPath Financial Wellness (a nonprofit approved by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development -HUD - and the National Foundation for Credit Counseling
6th May, 26
Big Overnight Recovery on Peace Deal Reports
There was one, big, obvious market mover overnight. At 4:50am ET, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are close to signing a one page memo of understanding to end the war. Oil and bond yields were already in recovery mode, but this kicked things into higher gear. Most of the gains remain even after both sides offered refutations (which the market now perceives as merely a negotiation tactic). Subsequent reports from other sources also speak to specific details in the peace deal that seem to specific to be made up. In early trading, ADP employment data had no impact and Treasury's
Big Overnight Recovery on Peace Deal Reports
There was one, big, obvious market mover overnight. At 4:50am ET, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are close to signing a one page memo of understanding to end the war. Oil and bond yields were already in recovery mode, but this kicked things into higher gear. Most of the gains remain even after both sides offered refutations (which the market now perceives as merely a negotiation tactic). Subsequent reports from other sources also speak to specific details in the peace deal that seem to specific to be made up. In early trading, ADP employment data had no impact and Treasury's
5th May, 26
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery Today's headline is somewhat misleading. It points out the fact that oil prices made it back to yesterday's lows whereas bond yields didn't even come close. This is all true, assuming we're looking at front month oil prices. But if we use a longer-term futures contract for oil, the correlation with bonds was actually closer to 1:1. Either way, the bond rally only unwound a fraction of yesterday's losses and that's especially true for MBS (5.0 coupons lost half a point yesterday, but regained less than a quarter point today).
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery Today's headline is somewhat misleading. It points out the fact that oil prices made it back to yesterday's lows whereas bond yields didn't even come close. This is all true, assuming we're looking at front month oil prices. But if we use a longer-term futures contract for oil, the correlation with bonds was actually closer to 1:1. Either way, the bond rally only unwound a fraction of yesterday's losses and that's especially true for MBS (5.0 coupons lost half a point yesterday, but regained less than a quarter point today).
5th May, 26
Mortgage Rates Edge Just Barely Lower
One popular refrain in the mortgage industry is that rates take the escalator on the way up and the stairs on the way down. Yesterday was definitely an "escalator" sort of day with the average lender moving up 0.12% for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate. Based on improvement in the bond market, rates are lower today, but just barely. It's not so much that rates are taking the stairs down, but more like they're a small child, waiting at the top of the staircase--afraid to take that first step. Some lenders are not even lower compared to yesterday's levels. Others are only modestly better. The absence
Mortgage Rates Edge Just Barely Lower
One popular refrain in the mortgage industry is that rates take the escalator on the way up and the stairs on the way down. Yesterday was definitely an "escalator" sort of day with the average lender moving up 0.12% for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate. Based on improvement in the bond market, rates are lower today, but just barely. It's not so much that rates are taking the stairs down, but more like they're a small child, waiting at the top of the staircase--afraid to take that first step. Some lenders are not even lower compared to yesterday's levels. Others are only modestly better. The absence