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22nd January, 26
Bonds Erase Most of The Overnight Weakness
Bonds Erase Most of The Overnight Weakness Thursday could be viewed two ways. On one hand, bonds lost ground early and were unable to recover it by the 3pm close. On the other hand, there was a decent rally on Wednesday that set a high bar for additional gains. In other words, it's a victory to merely hold close to yesterday's closing levels. Data passed without a trace, either because it was stale, near consensus, or both. There was better buying in the afternoon--a fact that's consistent with our observation that the EU session had an impact today. The afternoon bond market
Bonds Erase Most of The Overnight Weakness
Bonds Erase Most of The Overnight Weakness Thursday could be viewed two ways. On one hand, bonds lost ground early and were unable to recover it by the 3pm close. On the other hand, there was a decent rally on Wednesday that set a high bar for additional gains. In other words, it's a victory to merely hold close to yesterday's closing levels. Data passed without a trace, either because it was stale, near consensus, or both. There was better buying in the afternoon--a fact that's consistent with our observation that the EU session had an impact today. The afternoon bond market
22nd January, 26
Another Micro-Victory For Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates may not be as low as they were before the weekend's geopolitical headlines, but they've moved just a hair lower on each of the past two days. Specifically, our daily rate index is down to 6.19% after starting the week at 6.21% on Tuesday (up from 6.07% last Friday). While there was a large glut of seemingly important economic data today, it didn't have a noticeable impact on the bond market. Part of the reason is that the data in question is very stale at this point. The most recent monthly data covered November and the GDP release was for Q3 (July-Sep). Timeliness aside,
Another Micro-Victory For Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates may not be as low as they were before the weekend's geopolitical headlines, but they've moved just a hair lower on each of the past two days. Specifically, our daily rate index is down to 6.19% after starting the week at 6.21% on Tuesday (up from 6.07% last Friday). While there was a large glut of seemingly important economic data today, it didn't have a noticeable impact on the bond market. Part of the reason is that the data in question is very stale at this point. The most recent monthly data covered November and the GDP release was for Q3 (July-Sep). Timeliness aside,
22nd January, 26
Property Data, Construction Products; Webinars and Training; STRATMOR on Operational Readiness
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Curious when a shift from best efforts to mandatory delivery makes sense or how to sharpen an existing hedging strategy? Optimal Blue’s Hedging 101: The Benefits of Mandatory Delivery offers a clear look at the fundamentals that shape effective secondary marketing execution. In this Jan. 27 session, industry leaders Jim Glennon, SVP of hedging and trading operations, and Brad Eskridge, capital markets solutions specialist, will cover the core principles of hedging, available tools, and key operational and economic considerations when
Property Data, Construction Products; Webinars and Training; STRATMOR on Operational Readiness
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Curious when a shift from best efforts to mandatory delivery makes sense or how to sharpen an existing hedging strategy? Optimal Blue’s Hedging 101: The Benefits of Mandatory Delivery offers a clear look at the fundamentals that shape effective secondary marketing execution. In this Jan. 27 session, industry leaders Jim Glennon, SVP of hedging and trading operations, and Brad Eskridge, capital markets solutions specialist, will cover the core principles of hedging, available tools, and key operational and economic considerations when
22nd January, 26
No Reaction to Early Data, But Slightly Weaker Overnight
Bonds found a bid along with stocks yesterday afternoon after Trump announced a "framework of a deal" on Greenland. Markets were much less interested in U.S. access and more concerned with pausing the more immediate market-related implications (new tariffs and changes in foreign demand for Treasuries). This notion was reinforced this morning as there was no reaction at all to new comments saying the U.S. would have "total access" to Greenland with "no time limit." The early round of econ data also failed to inspire, although that's no surprise given the stale nature of GDP and
No Reaction to Early Data, But Slightly Weaker Overnight
Bonds found a bid along with stocks yesterday afternoon after Trump announced a "framework of a deal" on Greenland. Markets were much less interested in U.S. access and more concerned with pausing the more immediate market-related implications (new tariffs and changes in foreign demand for Treasuries). This notion was reinforced this morning as there was no reaction at all to new comments saying the U.S. would have "total access" to Greenland with "no time limit." The early round of econ data also failed to inspire, although that's no surprise given the stale nature of GDP and
21st January, 26
Bonds Recovering a Bit After "Framework of a Deal" on Greenland
Bonds Recovering a Bit After "Framework of a Deal" on Greenland Geopolitics have been front and center for financial markets over the past 2 days with both stocks and bonds taking clear cues from newswires pertaining to tariff brinksmanship, trade deal negotiations, foreign wealth fund participation, and ultimately, the late-day announcement of a "framework of a deal" regarding Greenland. Details are in short supply, but the most important development being a pause on the plan to implement new tariffs on February 1st. Markets are cautiously trading this as a win for now with stocks and bonds
Bonds Recovering a Bit After "Framework of a Deal" on Greenland
Bonds Recovering a Bit After "Framework of a Deal" on Greenland Geopolitics have been front and center for financial markets over the past 2 days with both stocks and bonds taking clear cues from newswires pertaining to tariff brinksmanship, trade deal negotiations, foreign wealth fund participation, and ultimately, the late-day announcement of a "framework of a deal" regarding Greenland. Details are in short supply, but the most important development being a pause on the plan to implement new tariffs on February 1st. Markets are cautiously trading this as a win for now with stocks and bonds
21st January, 26
Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower
Markets held more sideways overnight as traders awaited further geopolitical developments today surrounding Greenland. Both stocks and bonds lost ground yesterday on the threat of additional tariffs (and counter-tariffs) as well as decreased participation in the US bond market from foreign wealth funds. When bonds lose ground, rates move higher. Bond market improvement was tentative earlier in the day but more noticeable in the afternoon when Trump announced "the framework of a deal" just after 2:30pm ET. Both stocks and bonds rallied on the news. Up until that point,
Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower
Markets held more sideways overnight as traders awaited further geopolitical developments today surrounding Greenland. Both stocks and bonds lost ground yesterday on the threat of additional tariffs (and counter-tariffs) as well as decreased participation in the US bond market from foreign wealth funds. When bonds lose ground, rates move higher. Bond market improvement was tentative earlier in the day but more noticeable in the afternoon when Trump announced "the framework of a deal" just after 2:30pm ET. Both stocks and bonds rallied on the news. Up until that point,
21st January, 26
Calmer Day so Far, But No Relief From Recent Rout
With mortgage rates right where they were 2 weeks ago, things could be worse. But after rising 20bps from last week's lows, things could also certainly be better. A vast majority of recent volatility was seen at the start of the holiday-shortened week yesterday with a move that left no doubt as to the range breakout in 10yr yields. Geopolitical issues were the key driver and Japanese debt drama played a small supporting role. Now today, with Japanese bonds recovering a bit and no new geopolitical escalation in Davos speeches, bond bearishness has cooled off and given way to more sideways
Calmer Day so Far, But No Relief From Recent Rout
With mortgage rates right where they were 2 weeks ago, things could be worse. But after rising 20bps from last week's lows, things could also certainly be better. A vast majority of recent volatility was seen at the start of the holiday-shortened week yesterday with a move that left no doubt as to the range breakout in 10yr yields. Geopolitical issues were the key driver and Japanese debt drama played a small supporting role. Now today, with Japanese bonds recovering a bit and no new geopolitical escalation in Davos speeches, bond bearishness has cooled off and given way to more sideways
20th January, 26
Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg?
Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg? After months spent observing the same old range in the bond market, we're finally in the throes of a confirmed breakout. Unfortunately, the breakout has seen 10yr yields surge almost 10bps above the range ceiling in just 2 days. Technical analysts are high fiving each other because this is a classic breakout event (higher volume, sharper movement in the direction of the breakout). Fundamental traders are saying "not so fast" because there's nothing to say bonds couldn't be in decent shape today without fiscal drama in Japan or spiraling geopolitical
Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg?
Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg? After months spent observing the same old range in the bond market, we're finally in the throes of a confirmed breakout. Unfortunately, the breakout has seen 10yr yields surge almost 10bps above the range ceiling in just 2 days. Technical analysts are high fiving each other because this is a classic breakout event (higher volume, sharper movement in the direction of the breakout). Fundamental traders are saying "not so fast" because there's nothing to say bonds couldn't be in decent shape today without fiscal drama in Japan or spiraling geopolitical
20th January, 26
Mortgage Rates Jump to Match Highest Levels in Nearly a Month
Mortgage rates jumped sharply higher on Tuesday in response to weakness driven by geopolitical events and overseas financial markets. After hitting lows of 5.99% for a few hours on January 9th and spending last week in the low 6's, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate is back up to 6.21% today. This matches the level seen the day before the announcement of the administration's $200 bln mortgage bond buying plans. The last time rates were higher was December 23rd. In light of that announcement, why aren't mortgage rates doing better? Simply put, the market has already reacted
Mortgage Rates Jump to Match Highest Levels in Nearly a Month
Mortgage rates jumped sharply higher on Tuesday in response to weakness driven by geopolitical events and overseas financial markets. After hitting lows of 5.99% for a few hours on January 9th and spending last week in the low 6's, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate is back up to 6.21% today. This matches the level seen the day before the announcement of the administration's $200 bln mortgage bond buying plans. The last time rates were higher was December 23rd. In light of that announcement, why aren't mortgage rates doing better? Simply put, the market has already reacted
20th January, 26
Custom Software, UW Tools; FHA, USDA News; Webinars Today and Tomorrow; Mitch Kider Interview
On today’s Mortgage Law Today at 3PM ET, sponsored by Polunsky Beitel Green, LLP, Brian Levy sits down with Mitch Kider to unpack the shifting legal and regulatory landscape facing mortgage lenders, CFPB uncertainty, fair lending risk, GSE policy, enforcement trends, and how AI is beginning to reshape legal strategy heading into 2026. on tomorrow’s Mortgage Matters at 2PM ET (brought to you by Lenders One) is Ethan Winchell, President & Co-Founder of Truework, to discuss the seriousness and technology of verifications. Learning about capital markets is certainly intentional, and MCT’
Custom Software, UW Tools; FHA, USDA News; Webinars Today and Tomorrow; Mitch Kider Interview
On today’s Mortgage Law Today at 3PM ET, sponsored by Polunsky Beitel Green, LLP, Brian Levy sits down with Mitch Kider to unpack the shifting legal and regulatory landscape facing mortgage lenders, CFPB uncertainty, fair lending risk, GSE policy, enforcement trends, and how AI is beginning to reshape legal strategy heading into 2026. on tomorrow’s Mortgage Matters at 2PM ET (brought to you by Lenders One) is Ethan Winchell, President & Co-Founder of Truework, to discuss the seriousness and technology of verifications. Learning about capital markets is certainly intentional, and MCT’