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13th February, 26
Bonds Close Out Epic Week of Resilience With Friendly Data
Bonds Close Out Epic Week of Resilience With Friendly Data Friday was a logically friendly day thanks to slightly lower CPI. But no matter what happened on any of the other 4 days, this week was all about bonds ending up at much stronger levels in spite of a jobs report that should have sent rates higher on Wednesday. Ironclad justification remains impossible, but the leading theory involves heavy liquidation mode in stocks/commodities on Thursday. Holiday weekend positioning could also be a factor. As such, we'll learn a lot more next Tuesday--especially if stocks find a reason to stage a big
Bonds Close Out Epic Week of Resilience With Friendly Data
Bonds Close Out Epic Week of Resilience With Friendly Data Friday was a logically friendly day thanks to slightly lower CPI. But no matter what happened on any of the other 4 days, this week was all about bonds ending up at much stronger levels in spite of a jobs report that should have sent rates higher on Wednesday. Ironclad justification remains impossible, but the leading theory involves heavy liquidation mode in stocks/commodities on Thursday. Holiday weekend positioning could also be a factor. As such, we'll learn a lot more next Tuesday--especially if stocks find a reason to stage a big
13th February, 26
Mortgage Rates Oh So Close to 3 Year Lows
When the administration announced that Fannie and Freddie would be buying mortgage-backed securities in early January, rates fell sharply to the lowest levels in more than 3 years. After a moderate rebound the following week, we've been holding mostly steady in a range that was 0.1-0.2 above those long-term lows. The past two days have brought enough improvement that the average lender is once again at levels that are close enough to the long-term lows seen on January 9th and 12th. What accounts for the strength? In today's case, incremental gains were driven by a tame reading in January's
Mortgage Rates Oh So Close to 3 Year Lows
When the administration announced that Fannie and Freddie would be buying mortgage-backed securities in early January, rates fell sharply to the lowest levels in more than 3 years. After a moderate rebound the following week, we've been holding mostly steady in a range that was 0.1-0.2 above those long-term lows. The past two days have brought enough improvement that the average lender is once again at levels that are close enough to the long-term lows seen on January 9th and 12th. What accounts for the strength? In today's case, incremental gains were driven by a tame reading in January's
13th February, 26
Not So Fast: January Existing-Home Sales Give Back December’s Gains
Existing-home sales pulled back sharply in January, quickly dashing any hopes that December’s year-end rebound brought, as harsh winter weather and still-tight supply conditions weighed on activity. Sales fell 8.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million, the lowest levels since November 2024. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), transactions were also 4.4% lower than the same time last year, with every region posting both month-over-month and year-over-year declines. “The decrease in sales is disappointing,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Perhaps
Not So Fast: January Existing-Home Sales Give Back December’s Gains
Existing-home sales pulled back sharply in January, quickly dashing any hopes that December’s year-end rebound brought, as harsh winter weather and still-tight supply conditions weighed on activity. Sales fell 8.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million, the lowest levels since November 2024. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), transactions were also 4.4% lower than the same time last year, with every region posting both month-over-month and year-over-year declines. “The decrease in sales is disappointing,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Perhaps
13th February, 26
LOS, Guideline, AI Search, Non-QM Pricing Products; FSBO.com Acquired; Thoughts on Measuring Creditworthiness
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders QC works as an early warning system, but it only creates value when findings are recognized, validated, and turned into action. As agency expectations continue to shift, lenders are being asked to show not just findings, but proof of a thoughtful response. Join Indecomm in March for a QC Fireside Chat with Alicia Gazotti, Chief Risk and Compliance Officer at Genway Mortgage, as she shares how QC supports proactive risk management across the organization. The conversation will cover how to turn QC data into actionable remediation plans,
LOS, Guideline, AI Search, Non-QM Pricing Products; FSBO.com Acquired; Thoughts on Measuring Creditworthiness
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders QC works as an early warning system, but it only creates value when findings are recognized, validated, and turned into action. As agency expectations continue to shift, lenders are being asked to show not just findings, but proof of a thoughtful response. Join Indecomm in March for a QC Fireside Chat with Alicia Gazotti, Chief Risk and Compliance Officer at Genway Mortgage, as she shares how QC supports proactive risk management across the organization. The conversation will cover how to turn QC data into actionable remediation plans,
13th February, 26
Bonds Rally, Ignoring Surge in SuperCore CPI
CPI came in just a hair below forecasts at the headline level and right in line with forecasts at the core level (unrounded .295 vs .300). Shelter components continued lower with Owners' Equivalent Rent at 0.220 (basically a cycle low if we ignore the low quality data collection surrounding the government shutdown). The only potential hurdle for the bond market to clear was the surge in the supercore reading to the highest levels in a year. Despite a fair amount of attention paid to supercore in 2025, bonds seem willing to look past this development today, perhaps concluding that it's more
Bonds Rally, Ignoring Surge in SuperCore CPI
CPI came in just a hair below forecasts at the headline level and right in line with forecasts at the core level (unrounded .295 vs .300). Shelter components continued lower with Owners' Equivalent Rent at 0.220 (basically a cycle low if we ignore the low quality data collection surrounding the government shutdown). The only potential hurdle for the bond market to clear was the surge in the supercore reading to the highest levels in a year. Despite a fair amount of attention paid to supercore in 2025, bonds seem willing to look past this development today, perhaps concluding that it's more
12th February, 26
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months. At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were just over 4.10%--the lowest level since December 4th, 2025. In light of yesterday's stronger jobs report, today's absence of market moving data, and this week's Treasury auction cycle, it is impossible to account for these gains without conjecture and assumption. Certainly heavy selling in stocks and commodities deserves some credit for driving a flight to safety that benefited bonds, but we've definitely seen similar stock selling without the bond market benefit. Apart from that,
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months. At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were just over 4.10%--the lowest level since December 4th, 2025. In light of yesterday's stronger jobs report, today's absence of market moving data, and this week's Treasury auction cycle, it is impossible to account for these gains without conjecture and assumption. Certainly heavy selling in stocks and commodities deserves some credit for driving a flight to safety that benefited bonds, but we've definitely seen similar stock selling without the bond market benefit. Apart from that,
12th February, 26
Mortgage Rates Slide to New Multiweek Lows
Just one day after an incredibly strong jobs report--something that would normally create problematic upward momentum for rates--the average lender is back to the lowest levels since January 16th. At the risk of overusing a played-out metaphor, this was not on many experts' bingo cards. Even with the benefit of hindsight, it's not entirely possible to justify what we've seen over the past 2 days without jumping to conclusions and making educated guesses. Said guesses would rely on somewhat esoteric concepts regarding the way investor demand ebbs and flows between different Treasury securities
Mortgage Rates Slide to New Multiweek Lows
Just one day after an incredibly strong jobs report--something that would normally create problematic upward momentum for rates--the average lender is back to the lowest levels since January 16th. At the risk of overusing a played-out metaphor, this was not on many experts' bingo cards. Even with the benefit of hindsight, it's not entirely possible to justify what we've seen over the past 2 days without jumping to conclusions and making educated guesses. Said guesses would rely on somewhat esoteric concepts regarding the way investor demand ebbs and flows between different Treasury securities
12th February, 26
Non-QM Pricing, Appraisal, BI, Servicing Tools; Interview With Pennymac Chief Strategist; CFPB Update
Here at San Diego’s MCT Exchange 2026, the hallway chatter is varied. These are capital markets personnel, so things are pragmatic. One topic is Freddie Mac’s earnings: $2.8 billion in income for the fourth quarter of 2025 and $10.7 billion for 2025. Another is large companies becoming larger, exemplified by Tradeweb making an investment in MAXEX and by yesterday’s news of Pennymac entering into an agreement to acquire subservicer Cenlar (sponsor of this week’s podcasts with its 2 million loans). In fact, today’s podcast includes an interview with Pennymac’s Chief Strategy Officer
Non-QM Pricing, Appraisal, BI, Servicing Tools; Interview With Pennymac Chief Strategist; CFPB Update
Here at San Diego’s MCT Exchange 2026, the hallway chatter is varied. These are capital markets personnel, so things are pragmatic. One topic is Freddie Mac’s earnings: $2.8 billion in income for the fourth quarter of 2025 and $10.7 billion for 2025. Another is large companies becoming larger, exemplified by Tradeweb making an investment in MAXEX and by yesterday’s news of Pennymac entering into an agreement to acquire subservicer Cenlar (sponsor of this week’s podcasts with its 2 million loans). In fact, today’s podcast includes an interview with Pennymac’s Chief Strategy Officer
12th February, 26
Slower Data. Slower Morning
When the jobs report makes a big statement, bonds are more likely to exhibit elevated momentum and volatility in the following days. In more than a few past examples, a big jobs report can set the tone for the entire month--all the way until the next jobs report comes out. Perhaps it's the delayed release of yesterday's report and the resulting juxtaposition with tomorrow's CPI (also a relevant market mover), but bonds have immediately returned to the sort of sideways, uneventful trading seen on your average, boring trading day. In today's defense, it is fairly average. And the results from
Slower Data. Slower Morning
When the jobs report makes a big statement, bonds are more likely to exhibit elevated momentum and volatility in the following days. In more than a few past examples, a big jobs report can set the tone for the entire month--all the way until the next jobs report comes out. Perhaps it's the delayed release of yesterday's report and the resulting juxtaposition with tomorrow's CPI (also a relevant market mover), but bonds have immediately returned to the sort of sideways, uneventful trading seen on your average, boring trading day. In today's defense, it is fairly average. And the results from
11th February, 26
Stunning Resilience
Stunning Resilience One could argue that our bar is set too low if we view today's bond market resilience as "stunning," but if that's not the right word, it's damn close. Last Thursday saw yields drop 8bps, largely due to a trio of labor market reports that are nowhere near as heavily traded as today's jobs report. Yesterday's Retail Sales helped yields slight significantly below the 4.20% technical barrier. And now today, an effective 0.2% lower unemployment rate (0.1% in the rate itself + 0.1% implied by the higher participation rate) and big beat in the payroll count are worth only a 3bp
Stunning Resilience
Stunning Resilience One could argue that our bar is set too low if we view today's bond market resilience as "stunning," but if that's not the right word, it's damn close. Last Thursday saw yields drop 8bps, largely due to a trio of labor market reports that are nowhere near as heavily traded as today's jobs report. Yesterday's Retail Sales helped yields slight significantly below the 4.20% technical barrier. And now today, an effective 0.2% lower unemployment rate (0.1% in the rate itself + 0.1% implied by the higher participation rate) and big beat in the payroll count are worth only a 3bp