Latest news
26th December, 25
Bonds End Unchanged After Another Quiet Session
Bonds End Unchanged After Another Quiet Session This is essentially placeholder commentary to serve as Friday's recap even though no commentary is needed this week. Bonds saw some incidental strength in the AM and weakness heading into the PM. The net effect was unchanged trading levels by the 3pm CME close. Market Movement Recap 10:31 AM modestly stronger overnight and sideways so far. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.12 12:27 PM Off the best levels. MBS now unchanged and 10yr up 1bps at 4.142 02:31 PM Holding sideways with no additional weakness. MBS
Bonds End Unchanged After Another Quiet Session
Bonds End Unchanged After Another Quiet Session This is essentially placeholder commentary to serve as Friday's recap even though no commentary is needed this week. Bonds saw some incidental strength in the AM and weakness heading into the PM. The net effect was unchanged trading levels by the 3pm CME close. Market Movement Recap 10:31 AM modestly stronger overnight and sideways so far. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.12 12:27 PM Off the best levels. MBS now unchanged and 10yr up 1bps at 4.142 02:31 PM Holding sideways with no additional weakness. MBS
26th December, 25
Mortgage Rates Match 2-Month Lows
Because mortgage rates are determined by the bond market, a boring market day typically translates to a boring mortgage rate day. But that's not entirely true today. While the level of movement is indeed very small, it only took a small movement to get the average 30yr fixed rate down to their lowest levels since the end of October. Next week should be another slow one for rates, but things should pick up progressively as 2026 gets underway
Mortgage Rates Match 2-Month Lows
Because mortgage rates are determined by the bond market, a boring market day typically translates to a boring mortgage rate day. But that's not entirely true today. While the level of movement is indeed very small, it only took a small movement to get the average 30yr fixed rate down to their lowest levels since the end of October. Next week should be another slow one for rates, but things should pick up progressively as 2026 gets underway
26th December, 25
Non-QM, DSCR, Pricing Engine Products; Conventional Conforming News
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software In an open letter reflecting on a landmark 2025, Polly Founder and CEO Adam Carmel shares a powerful message of gratitude and strategic evolution. The company has spent the past year leading the market in enterprise innovation and Generative AI, continuing to demonstrate that the era of stagnant, legacy tech is over. This is more than a milestone report; it's a call to action for an industry at a crossroads. Carmel reflects on the profound impact and shared success achieved alongside Polly's customer partners, and looks ahead to a 2026
Non-QM, DSCR, Pricing Engine Products; Conventional Conforming News
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software In an open letter reflecting on a landmark 2025, Polly Founder and CEO Adam Carmel shares a powerful message of gratitude and strategic evolution. The company has spent the past year leading the market in enterprise innovation and Generative AI, continuing to demonstrate that the era of stagnant, legacy tech is over. This is more than a milestone report; it's a call to action for an industry at a crossroads. Carmel reflects on the profound impact and shared success achieved alongside Polly's customer partners, and looks ahead to a 2026
26th December, 25
Technically Open, But Unofficially Still a Holiday Trading Session
Although the bond market is technically open today, it might as well not be. Late year holidays (Thanksgiving, X-mas, New Year) depress volume and liquidity more than any others. Today is neither an official holiday nor an early close day, but considering Christmas fell on a Thursday and the federal employee holiday, trading is just as sparse as it was on Christmas Eve. Algorithmic trading programs are doing the vast majority of market making (i.e. determining prevailing levels for buyers and sellers). Bonds will remain sideways in a very narrow range until non-algo trades force a modest
Technically Open, But Unofficially Still a Holiday Trading Session
Although the bond market is technically open today, it might as well not be. Late year holidays (Thanksgiving, X-mas, New Year) depress volume and liquidity more than any others. Today is neither an official holiday nor an early close day, but considering Christmas fell on a Thursday and the federal employee holiday, trading is just as sparse as it was on Christmas Eve. Algorithmic trading programs are doing the vast majority of market making (i.e. determining prevailing levels for buyers and sellers). Bonds will remain sideways in a very narrow range until non-algo trades force a modest
24th December, 25
Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction
Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction You know it's a holiday with an early closure if we're talking about a 7yr Treasury auction having an impact on the bond market. To be fair, 7s have had an impact once or twice in the past, but the bar is certainly high. The holiday calendar makes the bar a bit lower as fewer determined traders are required to move the whole pile. Such was the case after the 11:30am ET auction. Bonds were already in good shape before that, but the earlier gains were more incidental than data-driven. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Dec)/13 1,923K vs -- f'cast,
Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction
Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction You know it's a holiday with an early closure if we're talking about a 7yr Treasury auction having an impact on the bond market. To be fair, 7s have had an impact once or twice in the past, but the bar is certainly high. The holiday calendar makes the bar a bit lower as fewer determined traders are required to move the whole pile. Such was the case after the 11:30am ET auction. Bonds were already in good shape before that, but the earlier gains were more incidental than data-driven. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Dec)/13 1,923K vs -- f'cast,
24th December, 25
Lowest Rates in Nearly a Month
It was a short day for the bond market that underlies mortgage rates, but a good one. A side effect of holiday weeks and early market closures is a bit of random volatility without any obvious justification. When volume and participation are low, bonds can move a bit more than they otherwise might. All that to say today's improvement was luck of the draw, but we won't object to the result. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since November 25th. The caveat is that the range has been fairly narrow during that time. [thirtyyearmortgagerates
Lowest Rates in Nearly a Month
It was a short day for the bond market that underlies mortgage rates, but a good one. A side effect of holiday weeks and early market closures is a bit of random volatility without any obvious justification. When volume and participation are low, bonds can move a bit more than they otherwise might. All that to say today's improvement was luck of the draw, but we won't object to the result. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since November 25th. The caveat is that the range has been fairly narrow during that time. [thirtyyearmortgagerates
24th December, 25
Christmas Eve: AI POS, Subservicing, Jumbo Products; Thoughts Operating Models; Freddie and Fannie News
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software “What would 50-100 bps more per jumbo loan mean for your team? Winning in today’s market takes more than price, but having a competitive bid still matters. Give your loan officers a strong start to 2026 with access to aggressive Jumbo pricing from an insurance-capital buyer available to many originators exclusively through the MAXEX platform. We’re seeing pricing come in 50–100 bps better than what many originators have access to today. Leverage your existing AUS workflow while tapping into best-execution pricing from multiple Jumbo
Christmas Eve: AI POS, Subservicing, Jumbo Products; Thoughts Operating Models; Freddie and Fannie News
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software “What would 50-100 bps more per jumbo loan mean for your team? Winning in today’s market takes more than price, but having a competitive bid still matters. Give your loan officers a strong start to 2026 with access to aggressive Jumbo pricing from an insurance-capital buyer available to many originators exclusively through the MAXEX platform. We’re seeing pricing come in 50–100 bps better than what many originators have access to today. Leverage your existing AUS workflow while tapping into best-execution pricing from multiple Jumbo
24th December, 25
Bonds Are Open... Sort Of
While many government employees have the day off today and Friday, these are not new, official Federal Holidays. As such, the bond market is open on the same schedule as always. Incidentally, that's an early close (2pm ET) on the 24th and a full close on the 25th. This assumes both are weekdays. Official holiday trading hour recommendations are published by SIFMA. Trading is off to an uneventful start with a robotically sideways overnight session and no reaction to Jobless Claims (the day's only econ data). There is also a 7yr Treasury auction at 11:30am ET, but most human traders will
Bonds Are Open... Sort Of
While many government employees have the day off today and Friday, these are not new, official Federal Holidays. As such, the bond market is open on the same schedule as always. Incidentally, that's an early close (2pm ET) on the 24th and a full close on the 25th. This assumes both are weekdays. Official holiday trading hour recommendations are published by SIFMA. Trading is off to an uneventful start with a robotically sideways overnight session and no reaction to Jobless Claims (the day's only econ data). There is also a 7yr Treasury auction at 11:30am ET, but most human traders will
23rd December, 25
Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness
Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness GDP for Q3 may be ancient history as far as econ data goes, but markets didn't seem to think so in the hour following this morning's release. GDP was much stronger than expected and bonds traded it like it was a legit market mover. But most of the reaction was a holiday-induced amplification of what might have otherwise only caused barely-noticeable weakness in bonds. That point was driven home by the end of the day as both Treasuries and MBS returned to unchanged levels. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment Change Weekly 11.5K vs -- f'
Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness
Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness GDP for Q3 may be ancient history as far as econ data goes, but markets didn't seem to think so in the hour following this morning's release. GDP was much stronger than expected and bonds traded it like it was a legit market mover. But most of the reaction was a holiday-induced amplification of what might have otherwise only caused barely-noticeable weakness in bonds. That point was driven home by the end of the day as both Treasuries and MBS returned to unchanged levels. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment Change Weekly 11.5K vs -- f'
23rd December, 25
Mortgage Rates Ultimately Unchanged After Starting Higher
Mortgage rates have broadly been in a narrow holding pattern for the past 4 months and an even narrower range during December. Today will do nothing to change that with the average lender ending the day exactly where they left of yesterday. Earlier today, however, the average lender was offering slightly higher higher rates. The upward pressure came courtesy of the bond market's reaction to stronger GDP numbers for Q3. But that initial reaction proved to be a temporary overreaction, exacerbated by lighter trading participation associated with the holiday week. In general, lower
Mortgage Rates Ultimately Unchanged After Starting Higher
Mortgage rates have broadly been in a narrow holding pattern for the past 4 months and an even narrower range during December. Today will do nothing to change that with the average lender ending the day exactly where they left of yesterday. Earlier today, however, the average lender was offering slightly higher higher rates. The upward pressure came courtesy of the bond market's reaction to stronger GDP numbers for Q3. But that initial reaction proved to be a temporary overreaction, exacerbated by lighter trading participation associated with the holiday week. In general, lower