Latest news
2nd June, 26
Verification, AI Automation, MERS Audit, Lead Source Products; Webinars and Training
Those in the Northern Hemisphere are moving toward summertime already, it being June. The calendar is always changing, as is the corporate landscape. “Rob, I know that Model Match, RETR, MMI, and Ingenius put out a lot of research regarding housing. Does anyone do it for builders, or commercial real estate?” Yes, Zonda, and now the company is being purchased by CoStar Group; and the acquisition will add to the home building industry’s top B2B information platform. Yesterday was Taylor Morrison/Berkshire Hathaway, and before that was Xactus buying Mortgage Credit Link (MCL) from
Verification, AI Automation, MERS Audit, Lead Source Products; Webinars and Training
Those in the Northern Hemisphere are moving toward summertime already, it being June. The calendar is always changing, as is the corporate landscape. “Rob, I know that Model Match, RETR, MMI, and Ingenius put out a lot of research regarding housing. Does anyone do it for builders, or commercial real estate?” Yes, Zonda, and now the company is being purchased by CoStar Group; and the acquisition will add to the home building industry’s top B2B information platform. Yesterday was Taylor Morrison/Berkshire Hathaway, and before that was Xactus buying Mortgage Credit Link (MCL) from
2nd June, 26
Temporary Jolt From JOLTS as War Focus Remains
We saw big ticket econ data move the needle a bit last week and have thus been prepared for this week's big ticket reports to have a similar chance to cause volatility. For a few moments this morning, that proved to be the case after job openings jumped by the highest amount since early 2021 and hit the highest levels since late 2025. In relative terms, it was the largest percent change since 2015 outside the initial pandemic whipsaw in 2020. Given those details, the initial selling of roughly 1bp in 10yr yields seems pretty mild (and it is). Moreover, bonds have already mostly bounced back to
Temporary Jolt From JOLTS as War Focus Remains
We saw big ticket econ data move the needle a bit last week and have thus been prepared for this week's big ticket reports to have a similar chance to cause volatility. For a few moments this morning, that proved to be the case after job openings jumped by the highest amount since early 2021 and hit the highest levels since late 2025. In relative terms, it was the largest percent change since 2015 outside the initial pandemic whipsaw in 2020. Given those details, the initial selling of roughly 1bp in 10yr yields seems pretty mild (and it is). Moreover, bonds have already mostly bounced back to
1st June, 26
Yields End Higher Despite Some Mid-Day Solace
Yields End Higher Despite Some Mid-Day Solace As has been almost constantly the case for the past few months, today's ebbs and flows in the bond market were tightly tied to the Iran war news cycle. Yields spiked after AM headlines suggested Iran was not interested in negotiating as long as fighting continues between Israel and Lebanon. Bonds bounced back in a friendlier direction after mid-day news that Trump would talk to Netanyahu about de-escalating. Nothing conclusive came from that conversation by the 3pm ET close and 10yr yields remained roughly 3bps higher on the day. Tuesday's slate of
Yields End Higher Despite Some Mid-Day Solace
Yields End Higher Despite Some Mid-Day Solace As has been almost constantly the case for the past few months, today's ebbs and flows in the bond market were tightly tied to the Iran war news cycle. Yields spiked after AM headlines suggested Iran was not interested in negotiating as long as fighting continues between Israel and Lebanon. Bonds bounced back in a friendlier direction after mid-day news that Trump would talk to Netanyahu about de-escalating. Nothing conclusive came from that conversation by the 3pm ET close and 10yr yields remained roughly 3bps higher on the day. Tuesday's slate of
1st June, 26
Rates Pull Back Slightly
Following last week's relatively strong move to the lowest levels since May 14th, mortgage rates bounced slightly higher to start the news week. The move followed a clear shift in the Iran war news cycle with morning headlines citing Iranian officials saying the peace negotiation were effectively tabled as long as hostilities remained between Israel and Lebanon. As a refresher, the Iran war is bad for rates primarily due to the actual and implied impact on inflation due to higher fuel costs. Bonds dictate rates and bonds hate inflation. There was an immediate and moderately sharp reaction in
Rates Pull Back Slightly
Following last week's relatively strong move to the lowest levels since May 14th, mortgage rates bounced slightly higher to start the news week. The move followed a clear shift in the Iran war news cycle with morning headlines citing Iranian officials saying the peace negotiation were effectively tabled as long as hostilities remained between Israel and Lebanon. As a refresher, the Iran war is bad for rates primarily due to the actual and implied impact on inflation due to higher fuel costs. Bonds dictate rates and bonds hate inflation. There was an immediate and moderately sharp reaction in
1st June, 26
Non-QM, HELOC, AI, LOS, eVault Tools; Gov't Loan Program Changes; Investor Thoughts
While M&A continues (the latest example being Berkshire Hathaway buying homebuilder Taylor Morrison for $8.5 billion!), I find myself in San Juan Capistrano at the Insellerate Experience Summit but keeping an eye out for returning swallows. Lenders are keeping an eye out for loans: Although lenders generally had a good April and May, pipelines for June fundings and beyond appear to be down significantly. Insellerate’s Summit is focused on AI and tech. Mortgage has spent decades layering technology onto a system that still costs too much, moves too slowly, and frustrates nearly everyone
Non-QM, HELOC, AI, LOS, eVault Tools; Gov't Loan Program Changes; Investor Thoughts
While M&A continues (the latest example being Berkshire Hathaway buying homebuilder Taylor Morrison for $8.5 billion!), I find myself in San Juan Capistrano at the Insellerate Experience Summit but keeping an eye out for returning swallows. Lenders are keeping an eye out for loans: Although lenders generally had a good April and May, pipelines for June fundings and beyond appear to be down significantly. Insellerate’s Summit is focused on AI and tech. Mortgage has spent decades layering technology onto a system that still costs too much, moves too slowly, and frustrates nearly everyone
1st June, 26
Weaker Start as War News Cycle Shifts
Last week's focus for war-related headlines involved various attempts to hone in on just how close we were to a confirmed preliminary peace deal. The results were predictable with bonds moving to their lowest yields in weeks. The shoe is very much on the other foot to start the new week with headlines saying Iran is pulling out of peace talks until the Israel/Lebanon fighting ends. In addition, the IRGC is said to be taking control of diplomacy and threatening to re-block the strait. With that, 10yr yields jumped back up near the highest levels in over a week and MBS dropped a quick 3/8ths of
Weaker Start as War News Cycle Shifts
Last week's focus for war-related headlines involved various attempts to hone in on just how close we were to a confirmed preliminary peace deal. The results were predictable with bonds moving to their lowest yields in weeks. The shoe is very much on the other foot to start the new week with headlines saying Iran is pulling out of peace talks until the Israel/Lebanon fighting ends. In addition, the IRGC is said to be taking control of diplomacy and threatening to re-block the strait. With that, 10yr yields jumped back up near the highest levels in over a week and MBS dropped a quick 3/8ths of
29th May, 26
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct A few hours into the trading session, newswires came out that seemed to offer the best hopes of a peace deal yet. Specifically, it said that Trump was in the situation room to make a final determination on the peace deal and that issues required for the infamous one page memo had already been agreed upon. Markets were surprisingly cautious about reading too much into that, although it briefly took yields to their lowest levels of the week. By the end of the day, we learned that no decision had been made and
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct A few hours into the trading session, newswires came out that seemed to offer the best hopes of a peace deal yet. Specifically, it said that Trump was in the situation room to make a final determination on the peace deal and that issues required for the infamous one page memo had already been agreed upon. Markets were surprisingly cautious about reading too much into that, although it briefly took yields to their lowest levels of the week. By the end of the day, we learned that no decision had been made and
29th May, 26
Mortgage Rates Set to End Week Much Lower
While there are still a few hours left in the trading day, it's a near certainty that this week will end with mortgage rates at meaningfully lower levels compared to last Friday. Today is only adding modestly to that trend, but that makes it the 8th straight business day where rates have either held steady or moved lower. On that note, it's possibly worth considering that these sorts of winning streaks have definite life spans. We've certainly seen stretches of more than 10 business days without any upward movement in rates, but they're very rare. Even then, if the streak were to end on Monday
Mortgage Rates Set to End Week Much Lower
While there are still a few hours left in the trading day, it's a near certainty that this week will end with mortgage rates at meaningfully lower levels compared to last Friday. Today is only adding modestly to that trend, but that makes it the 8th straight business day where rates have either held steady or moved lower. On that note, it's possibly worth considering that these sorts of winning streaks have definite life spans. We've certainly seen stretches of more than 10 business days without any upward movement in rates, but they're very rare. Even then, if the streak were to end on Monday
29th May, 26
Inventory Builds as New Home Sales Cool in April
New home sales pulled back in April after stronger readings in the prior two months. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 622,000 , down 6.2% from March and 11.3% from a year earlier. Inventory moved slightly higher, with the number of new homes for sale rising to 489,000 , up 1.7% from March but still 2.2% below April 2025 levels. At the current sales pace, that left months’ supply at 9.4 months , up from 8.7 months in March and 8.6 months one year ago. Pricing was mixed. The median sales price
Inventory Builds as New Home Sales Cool in April
New home sales pulled back in April after stronger readings in the prior two months. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 622,000 , down 6.2% from March and 11.3% from a year earlier. Inventory moved slightly higher, with the number of new homes for sale rising to 489,000 , up 1.7% from March but still 2.2% below April 2025 levels. At the current sales pace, that left months’ supply at 9.4 months , up from 8.7 months in March and 8.6 months one year ago. Pricing was mixed. The median sales price
29th May, 26
No Surprise: Last Week's Higher Rates Hit Refinance Demand
Mortgage applications fell sharply last week as higher borrowing costs continued to pressure refinance demand, while purchase activity showed a bit more resilience. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an 8.5% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 22. The decline was driven largely by a steep drop in refinance activity. The Refinance Index fell 18% from the previous week, though refinance demand remained 19% higher than the same period one year ago. Purchase activity held relatively steady despite the rate environment. The
No Surprise: Last Week's Higher Rates Hit Refinance Demand
Mortgage applications fell sharply last week as higher borrowing costs continued to pressure refinance demand, while purchase activity showed a bit more resilience. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an 8.5% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 22. The decline was driven largely by a steep drop in refinance activity. The Refinance Index fell 18% from the previous week, though refinance demand remained 19% higher than the same period one year ago. Purchase activity held relatively steady despite the rate environment. The