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6th September, 24
Wild Ride on Jobs Day as Fed Speakers Steal The Show
Wild Ride on Jobs Day as Fed Speakers Steal The Show We came into jobs report day expecting some clarity on the size of the Fed's impending rate cut and in hindsight, it's abundantly clear that traders felt the same way. The only catch is that the lion's share of the clarity was reserved for a few short comments from Fed's Chris Waller. The market initially mistook those comments to suggest a 50bp cut, but swiftly reconsidered. In terms of Fed Funds Futures, the volume and volatility surrounding Waller's comments were FAR bigger than the action surrounding the jobs report earlier
Wild Ride on Jobs Day as Fed Speakers Steal The Show
Wild Ride on Jobs Day as Fed Speakers Steal The Show We came into jobs report day expecting some clarity on the size of the Fed's impending rate cut and in hindsight, it's abundantly clear that traders felt the same way. The only catch is that the lion's share of the clarity was reserved for a few short comments from Fed's Chris Waller. The market initially mistook those comments to suggest a 50bp cut, but swiftly reconsidered. In terms of Fed Funds Futures, the volume and volatility surrounding Waller's comments were FAR bigger than the action surrounding the jobs report earlier
6th September, 24
Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest Levels Since April 2023
Mortgage rates have a long and storied history of making big moves on the day that the big monthly jobs report comes out. In that regard, today was fairly normal. Indeed, the jobs report came out and mortgage rates made their biggest move of the week, dropping to the lowest levels since April 2023. The biggest catch in today's case was the fact that much of the market movement came in response to comments from several Fed officials who weighed in on the prospects for the rate cut in a week and a half. Granted, the jobs report influenced those comments, but they were
Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest Levels Since April 2023
Mortgage rates have a long and storied history of making big moves on the day that the big monthly jobs report comes out. In that regard, today was fairly normal. Indeed, the jobs report came out and mortgage rates made their biggest move of the week, dropping to the lowest levels since April 2023. The biggest catch in today's case was the fact that much of the market movement came in response to comments from several Fed officials who weighed in on the prospects for the rate cut in a week and a half. Granted, the jobs report influenced those comments, but they were
6th September, 24
Fair Lending, LOS, Warehouse Tools; The VA and NAR Commission Changes; Jobs Data Confirms Rate Direction
“The credit card company called me to report suspicious activity... I asked what kind of suspicious activity, and they said someone made a payment.” “Well, I’ve got a job and try to put my money away. But I’ve got debts that no honest man can pay. So, I drew what I had from the Central Trust…” (Ask me some time in person about meeting and chatting with many of the folks in that band.) Debt is not fun, and in fact, is quite the opposite. Take a look at this graph from the St. Louis Fed of credit card and revolving debt, moving toward $1.1 trillion. Yesterday I spent some time at a
Fair Lending, LOS, Warehouse Tools; The VA and NAR Commission Changes; Jobs Data Confirms Rate Direction
“The credit card company called me to report suspicious activity... I asked what kind of suspicious activity, and they said someone made a payment.” “Well, I’ve got a job and try to put my money away. But I’ve got debts that no honest man can pay. So, I drew what I had from the Central Trust…” (Ask me some time in person about meeting and chatting with many of the folks in that band.) Debt is not fun, and in fact, is quite the opposite. Take a look at this graph from the St. Louis Fed of credit card and revolving debt, moving toward $1.1 trillion. Yesterday I spent some time at a
6th September, 24
Jobs Report Does Nothing to Resolve Fed Rate Cut Debate
At first glance, this morning's jobs report suggested a modest but clearly-defined increase in the likelihood of a 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 weeks. Headline nonfarm payrolls came in at 142k vs 160k forecast. In addition, the past 2 months were revised down by a total of 144k. As of today, that leaves the 3 month average NFP at 116k, a far cry from last year's 232k or 2024's YTD 207k. In other words, it's more than just one month of jobs data that suggests a shift in the labor market. Bonds pounced on that fact at first, but trading has been extremely "2-way
Jobs Report Does Nothing to Resolve Fed Rate Cut Debate
At first glance, this morning's jobs report suggested a modest but clearly-defined increase in the likelihood of a 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 weeks. Headline nonfarm payrolls came in at 142k vs 160k forecast. In addition, the past 2 months were revised down by a total of 144k. As of today, that leaves the 3 month average NFP at 116k, a far cry from last year's 232k or 2024's YTD 207k. In other words, it's more than just one month of jobs data that suggests a shift in the labor market. Bonds pounced on that fact at first, but trading has been extremely "2-way
5th September, 24
Jobs Data Poised to Influence Size of The Upcoming Rate Cut
Jobs Data Poised to Influence Size of The Upcoming Rate Cut Thursday ended up being fairly uneventful for bonds, with the balance of data leaving us slightly better off. ADP employment had the biggest positive impact and the selling pressure created by ISM Services was ultimately unable to argue a better case. Friday's jobs report will offer a final ruling of sorts. It will decide whether the early September rate rally will continue and it will also inform the odds of a 25bp vs 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 weeks. The range of potential bond market reactions are only
Jobs Data Poised to Influence Size of The Upcoming Rate Cut
Jobs Data Poised to Influence Size of The Upcoming Rate Cut Thursday ended up being fairly uneventful for bonds, with the balance of data leaving us slightly better off. ADP employment had the biggest positive impact and the selling pressure created by ISM Services was ultimately unable to argue a better case. Friday's jobs report will offer a final ruling of sorts. It will decide whether the early September rate rally will continue and it will also inform the odds of a 25bp vs 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 weeks. The range of potential bond market reactions are only
5th September, 24
Lowest Rates in a Year and a Half. Friday Could Take Them Even Lower (Or Cause a Big Bounce)
Wouldn't it be nice if you could know what was going to happen with mortgage rates before it actually happened? Since the dawn of time in financial markets, there's someone who's willing to make a seemingly compelling prediction about the future for every person who's willing to believe such things are better than 50/50 guesses. When it comes to time frames as short as 24 hours, it's a 100% coin flip. Reason being: Friday's direction will be determined by the outcome of the Employment Situation (aka, the jobs report)--the single most important scheduled economic report on any given
Lowest Rates in a Year and a Half. Friday Could Take Them Even Lower (Or Cause a Big Bounce)
Wouldn't it be nice if you could know what was going to happen with mortgage rates before it actually happened? Since the dawn of time in financial markets, there's someone who's willing to make a seemingly compelling prediction about the future for every person who's willing to believe such things are better than 50/50 guesses. When it comes to time frames as short as 24 hours, it's a 100% coin flip. Reason being: Friday's direction will be determined by the outcome of the Employment Situation (aka, the jobs report)--the single most important scheduled economic report on any given
5th September, 24
Mixed Bag Making For Mixed Morning
Thursday morning had the highest concentration of economic reports so far this week with ADP, Challenger, Claims, and two flavors of Services PMI data. The early employment metrics were weak. ADP, specifically, pushed yields lower at 8:15am. Jobless Claims were neither weak nor strong and bonds were free to drift sideways to slightly stronger after that. The stronger ISM PMI data pushed bonds back in the other direction at 10am (no real reaction to S&P version). The net effect is almost perfectly unchanged trading levels heading into the PM hours
Mixed Bag Making For Mixed Morning
Thursday morning had the highest concentration of economic reports so far this week with ADP, Challenger, Claims, and two flavors of Services PMI data. The early employment metrics were weak. ADP, specifically, pushed yields lower at 8:15am. Jobless Claims were neither weak nor strong and bonds were free to drift sideways to slightly stronger after that. The stronger ISM PMI data pushed bonds back in the other direction at 10am (no real reaction to S&P version). The net effect is almost perfectly unchanged trading levels heading into the PM hours
5th September, 24
Product Search, Hedging, Marketing, CRM Tools; Broker Products; Title Co. Fines; Real Estate Agent Stats to Know
“If you were born in September, it's pretty safe to assume that your parents started their new year with a bang.” Are originators getting a “bang for their buck” when it comes to marketing to real estate agents? “Rob, have you heard that 20 percent of real estate agents account for 80 percent of transactions? And that most loan officers are calling on the 80 percent of real estate agents who hardly do any business?” Yes, I have. I’ve even heard worse: that 70 percent of agents don’t close any deals. I can’t verify that, but I can recommend three things. First, make sure that
Product Search, Hedging, Marketing, CRM Tools; Broker Products; Title Co. Fines; Real Estate Agent Stats to Know
“If you were born in September, it's pretty safe to assume that your parents started their new year with a bang.” Are originators getting a “bang for their buck” when it comes to marketing to real estate agents? “Rob, have you heard that 20 percent of real estate agents account for 80 percent of transactions? And that most loan officers are calling on the 80 percent of real estate agents who hardly do any business?” Yes, I have. I’ve even heard worse: that 70 percent of agents don’t close any deals. I can’t verify that, but I can recommend three things. First, make sure that
4th September, 24
Persistent Rally After Data. More Data Ahead
Persistent Rally After Data. More Data Ahead Wednesday ended up being almost exclusively about the Job Openings data in the morning. Bonds were fairly flat before that and rallied sharply afterward. Once the initial reaction ran its course (in mere minutes), the rest of the day was an uneventful drift in a rate-friendly direction. Yields hit the 3pm close several bps under the 3.80% technical level in 10s, which makes this a bit of a "lead-off" to whatever extent you were planning on the 3.8-4.0 range remaining intact until Friday's jobs report. In other
Persistent Rally After Data. More Data Ahead
Persistent Rally After Data. More Data Ahead Wednesday ended up being almost exclusively about the Job Openings data in the morning. Bonds were fairly flat before that and rallied sharply afterward. Once the initial reaction ran its course (in mere minutes), the rest of the day was an uneventful drift in a rate-friendly direction. Yields hit the 3pm close several bps under the 3.80% technical level in 10s, which makes this a bit of a "lead-off" to whatever extent you were planning on the 3.8-4.0 range remaining intact until Friday's jobs report. In other
4th September, 24
Mortgage Rates Near Recent Lows as Markets Wait For Jobs Report
Mortgage rates moved lower for the 2nd straight day on Wednesday with the average lender right in line with their lowest levels since August 5th. In fact, most borrowers would see little--if any difference between today's loans quotes and those from August 5th. As such, today's rates basically match the lowest in well over a year. This is made possible by a series of economic reports that have "played nice" with the notion of the Fed cutting rates by at least 0.25% at the next meeting in 2 weeks. The bond market (which includes bonds that drive daily changes in mortgage rates
Mortgage Rates Near Recent Lows as Markets Wait For Jobs Report
Mortgage rates moved lower for the 2nd straight day on Wednesday with the average lender right in line with their lowest levels since August 5th. In fact, most borrowers would see little--if any difference between today's loans quotes and those from August 5th. As such, today's rates basically match the lowest in well over a year. This is made possible by a series of economic reports that have "played nice" with the notion of the Fed cutting rates by at least 0.25% at the next meeting in 2 weeks. The bond market (which includes bonds that drive daily changes in mortgage rates
