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21st August, 26
Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon
Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon Without any data or compelling market movers, bonds came into the day light on inspiration. Low volume/liquidity left the door open for any determined traders to have a bigger-than-normal influence on the market. That arguably happened between 9am and 10:30am ET with both stocks and bonds losing ground simultaneously. This coincided perfectly with an uptick in Fed rate hike expectations seen via near-term Fed Funds Futures. Market Movement Recap 08:34 AM Sideways to slightly stronger overnight. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down
Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon
Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon Without any data or compelling market movers, bonds came into the day light on inspiration. Low volume/liquidity left the door open for any determined traders to have a bigger-than-normal influence on the market. That arguably happened between 9am and 10:30am ET with both stocks and bonds losing ground simultaneously. This coincided perfectly with an uptick in Fed rate hike expectations seen via near-term Fed Funds Futures. Market Movement Recap 08:34 AM Sideways to slightly stronger overnight. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down
21st August, 26
Mortgage Rates Drift Modestly Higher
For all practical purposes, Friday's mortgage rates were unchanged versus Thursday's, but if we're splitting hairs, the average lender rose 0.01% to 6.77% for a top tier 30yr fixed. While many news outlets continue focusing on the mid-week announcement regarding Treasury's bond buyback program, today's bond market volatility was unrelated. Current levels are close to where they were before Wednesday's announcement and that makes sense to anyone who Wednesday's market reaction as 'overdone.' The upcoming week offers much more economic data in addition to potentially relevant
Mortgage Rates Drift Modestly Higher
For all practical purposes, Friday's mortgage rates were unchanged versus Thursday's, but if we're splitting hairs, the average lender rose 0.01% to 6.77% for a top tier 30yr fixed. While many news outlets continue focusing on the mid-week announcement regarding Treasury's bond buyback program, today's bond market volatility was unrelated. Current levels are close to where they were before Wednesday's announcement and that makes sense to anyone who Wednesday's market reaction as 'overdone.' The upcoming week offers much more economic data in addition to potentially relevant
21st August, 26
Housing Starts Drop in July as Permits Point to Stronger Future Activity
Residential construction pulled back in July as housing starts and completions declined from June levels, while building permits rebounded. The latest Census Bureau data suggests builders remained cautious about active construction, even as the increase in permits pointed to somewhat stronger activity ahead. Privately owned housing starts fell 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.239 million , down 13.5% from the July 2025 pace. Single-family starts declined 9.9% to 808k , while starts for buildings containing five units or more fell to 421k . Building permits reversed course as
Housing Starts Drop in July as Permits Point to Stronger Future Activity
Residential construction pulled back in July as housing starts and completions declined from June levels, while building permits rebounded. The latest Census Bureau data suggests builders remained cautious about active construction, even as the increase in permits pointed to somewhat stronger activity ahead. Privately owned housing starts fell 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.239 million , down 13.5% from the July 2025 pace. Single-family starts declined 9.9% to 808k , while starts for buildings containing five units or more fell to 421k . Building permits reversed course as
21st August, 26
Pending Home Sales Slip 2.3% in July
Pending home sales declined again in July as elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices continued to weigh on buyer demand. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, fell 2.3% from June and was down 2.2% from a year earlier, reaching its lowest level since January 2026. The latest report points to continued affordability challenges for prospective buyers. Higher borrowing costs and elevated home prices are keeping many buyers on the sidelines, while homes are taking longer to sell and fewer buyers are
Pending Home Sales Slip 2.3% in July
Pending home sales declined again in July as elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices continued to weigh on buyer demand. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, fell 2.3% from June and was down 2.2% from a year earlier, reaching its lowest level since January 2026. The latest report points to continued affordability challenges for prospective buyers. Higher borrowing costs and elevated home prices are keeping many buyers on the sidelines, while homes are taking longer to sell and fewer buyers are
21st August, 26
Builder Confidence Technically Higher But Still Sideways in The Big Picture
Builder sentiment improved slightly in August, but confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes remained subdued as elevated mortgage rates, rising construction costs and broader economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the industry. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) increased one point to 35 , marking the 16th consecutive month the index has remained below 40. This latest reading reflects all the familiar challenges facing builders, including affordability pressures, elevated material costs and weak demand for spec homes
Builder Confidence Technically Higher But Still Sideways in The Big Picture
Builder sentiment improved slightly in August, but confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes remained subdued as elevated mortgage rates, rising construction costs and broader economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the industry. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) increased one point to 35 , marking the 16th consecutive month the index has remained below 40. This latest reading reflects all the familiar challenges facing builders, including affordability pressures, elevated material costs and weak demand for spec homes
21st August, 26
No Major Changes in Mortgage Demand
Mortgage application activity was little changed last week as higher mortgage rates continued to weigh on purchase demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.4% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 14. Purchase applications decreased 2% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 3% below the same week one year ago. MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan said affordability difficulties have reemerged as a reason for some homebuyers to delay purchase decisions, citing the impact of higher mortgage rates
No Major Changes in Mortgage Demand
Mortgage application activity was little changed last week as higher mortgage rates continued to weigh on purchase demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.4% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 14. Purchase applications decreased 2% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 3% below the same week one year ago. MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan said affordability difficulties have reemerged as a reason for some homebuyers to delay purchase decisions, citing the impact of higher mortgage rates
21st August, 26
AI Production, Product Launch, Processing Tools; Webcasts; Lender M&A; LO Tips
LOs tell me that they are counseling potential borrowers. “If you’re in the market for a home, focus on the things you can control. Save for your down payment which can be less than 20 percent, but the more you can put down, the less you have to borrow and the lower your monthly payments. Consider your priorities. Can you live further from the city and save a little money? Do you need a fourth bedroom or will three do for now? Understand clearly your ‘wants’ and ‘needs’ and be ready to compromise. Shop around for your mortgage. Don’t just go to your primary bank or get a loan
AI Production, Product Launch, Processing Tools; Webcasts; Lender M&A; LO Tips
LOs tell me that they are counseling potential borrowers. “If you’re in the market for a home, focus on the things you can control. Save for your down payment which can be less than 20 percent, but the more you can put down, the less you have to borrow and the lower your monthly payments. Consider your priorities. Can you live further from the city and save a little money? Do you need a fourth bedroom or will three do for now? Understand clearly your ‘wants’ and ‘needs’ and be ready to compromise. Shop around for your mortgage. Don’t just go to your primary bank or get a loan
21st August, 26
Summertime Data-Free Friday Mystery Box
Bonds were a hair stronger overnight and are now a hair weaker at 9:15am ET. They may flip back and forth a few more times before the close. Ultimately, data-free summertime Fridays are fairly random events. If no big players have big intentions, they can fizzle sideways. But due to lower participation, if big trades come through, they can have a bigger impact than normal. As long as yields remain in the prevailing consolidation pattern, nothing of high consequence is happening
Summertime Data-Free Friday Mystery Box
Bonds were a hair stronger overnight and are now a hair weaker at 9:15am ET. They may flip back and forth a few more times before the close. Ultimately, data-free summertime Fridays are fairly random events. If no big players have big intentions, they can fizzle sideways. But due to lower participation, if big trades come through, they can have a bigger impact than normal. As long as yields remain in the prevailing consolidation pattern, nothing of high consequence is happening
20th August, 26
Tune Out The Noise
Tune Out The Noise Yesterday's Treasury buyback announcement and today's comments from Bessent make for good drama in financial news, but the actual market impact had run its course within minutes of the initial announcement and we haven't seen solid evidence that the market has continued to care. Rather, the ample evidence is that an overnight oil price spike pushed bond yields higher. Peaks and valleys aligned perfectly. Elevated corporate issuance lingers constantly in the background causing broad elevation in bonds, but not much of an intraday impulse (even after an afternoon announcement
Tune Out The Noise
Tune Out The Noise Yesterday's Treasury buyback announcement and today's comments from Bessent make for good drama in financial news, but the actual market impact had run its course within minutes of the initial announcement and we haven't seen solid evidence that the market has continued to care. Rather, the ample evidence is that an overnight oil price spike pushed bond yields higher. Peaks and valleys aligned perfectly. Elevated corporate issuance lingers constantly in the background causing broad elevation in bonds, but not much of an intraday impulse (even after an afternoon announcement
20th August, 26
Highest Mortgage Rates in Just Over a Week
While Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey may show rates moving slightly lower this week, today's rates are actually higher than they were at the same time last week (6.76% vs 6.69%). Financial news continued to focus on yesterday's announcement of Treasury buybacks after Secretary Bessent spoke on CNBC this morning, but today's bump in rates had more to do with fuel prices. Treasury yields serve as an almost perfect proxy for intraday rate movement with 10yr yields often seen as the most common at-a-glance benchmark for mortgage rate movement (i.e. they tend to move in the same
Highest Mortgage Rates in Just Over a Week
While Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey may show rates moving slightly lower this week, today's rates are actually higher than they were at the same time last week (6.76% vs 6.69%). Financial news continued to focus on yesterday's announcement of Treasury buybacks after Secretary Bessent spoke on CNBC this morning, but today's bump in rates had more to do with fuel prices. Treasury yields serve as an almost perfect proxy for intraday rate movement with 10yr yields often seen as the most common at-a-glance benchmark for mortgage rate movement (i.e. they tend to move in the same