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5th February, 26
Mortgage Rates Fall After Downbeat Employment Data
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and that bonds care about employment data. There are quite a few different economic reports that focus on various employment metrics. Next Wednesday's jobs report is the biggest ticket by far, but other reports can move the needle at times--especially when they fall far from forecasts or previous readings. This was the case with three separate reports today. One of them almost never gets covered in the news, but it showed planned layoffs at large firms were the third highest since 2020. The second was the weekly jobless claims report, which finally
Mortgage Rates Fall After Downbeat Employment Data
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and that bonds care about employment data. There are quite a few different economic reports that focus on various employment metrics. Next Wednesday's jobs report is the biggest ticket by far, but other reports can move the needle at times--especially when they fall far from forecasts or previous readings. This was the case with three separate reports today. One of them almost never gets covered in the news, but it showed planned layoffs at large firms were the third highest since 2020. The second was the weekly jobless claims report, which finally
5th February, 26
Climate Risk, Processing, Construction, Credit Score Programs; IMB Topics; In-Person Events
Yup, another competitor for lenders come July: Bed Bath & Beyond is acquiring Tokens.com “to develop a blockchain-based investment and personal finance platform” and will use tools from tZERO and integrate with blockchain firm Figure to offer services such as mortgages and renovation loans. Indeed, mergers, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships are alive and well, ranging from branches moving to talk of more headline-grabbing deals ahead. Welcome to the club, Bed, Bath, and Beyond, I think you’ll find it a confusing industry… there isn’t a lot of policy shaping selling
Climate Risk, Processing, Construction, Credit Score Programs; IMB Topics; In-Person Events
Yup, another competitor for lenders come July: Bed Bath & Beyond is acquiring Tokens.com “to develop a blockchain-based investment and personal finance platform” and will use tools from tZERO and integrate with blockchain firm Figure to offer services such as mortgages and renovation loans. Indeed, mergers, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships are alive and well, ranging from branches moving to talk of more headline-grabbing deals ahead. Welcome to the club, Bed, Bath, and Beyond, I think you’ll find it a confusing industry… there isn’t a lot of policy shaping selling
5th February, 26
Stronger Start Thanks to Employment Data
Bonds were incidentally and inconsequentially stronger to start the overnight session, but began to see better gains after 7am ET. There were two notable bumps in volume after the 7:30am Challenger job cut data and the 8:30am Jobless Claims data. Of the two, the latter was much more clearly linked to gains. Challenger definitely got a small volume bump, but it's hard to say that the gains weren't already in progress when it came out. The morning's labor market data will be rounded out by the report with the biggest potential (emphasis on "potential") reaction: Job Openings at
Stronger Start Thanks to Employment Data
Bonds were incidentally and inconsequentially stronger to start the overnight session, but began to see better gains after 7am ET. There were two notable bumps in volume after the 7:30am Challenger job cut data and the 8:30am Jobless Claims data. Of the two, the latter was much more clearly linked to gains. Challenger definitely got a small volume bump, but it's hard to say that the gains weren't already in progress when it came out. The morning's labor market data will be rounded out by the report with the biggest potential (emphasis on "potential") reaction: Job Openings at
4th February, 26
No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday
No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday With the big jobs report on hold until next Wednesday, this morning's ADP/ISM duo had to do most of the week's heavy lifting in terms of important econ data. The response was underwhelming, at best. ADP was a complete non-event, but also fairly close to consensus. ISM was mixed and generally helped bonds hold their ground with yields moving down from highs at 10am. The day's range remained inside yesterday's and there were minimal losses by the 3pm close. The JOLTS data that was scheduled for Tuesday will now be coming out on
No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday
No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday With the big jobs report on hold until next Wednesday, this morning's ADP/ISM duo had to do most of the week's heavy lifting in terms of important econ data. The response was underwhelming, at best. ADP was a complete non-event, but also fairly close to consensus. ISM was mixed and generally helped bonds hold their ground with yields moving down from highs at 10am. The day's range remained inside yesterday's and there were minimal losses by the 3pm close. The JOLTS data that was scheduled for Tuesday will now be coming out on
4th February, 26
Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Steady at 2-Week Highs
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit its highest levels in 2 weeks yesterday. The caveat was that the range has been very narrow during these 2 weeks. As such, by remaining unchanged versus yesterday, today's rates are part of the same narrow range (6.15-6.20% for MND's index). There were two relevant economic reports this morning as well as an update from the Treasury department regarding borrowing expectations. The latter is important for interest rates because the level of Treasury issuance is a primary ingredient in determining almost any consumer lending rate in the U.S.
Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Steady at 2-Week Highs
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit its highest levels in 2 weeks yesterday. The caveat was that the range has been very narrow during these 2 weeks. As such, by remaining unchanged versus yesterday, today's rates are part of the same narrow range (6.15-6.20% for MND's index). There were two relevant economic reports this morning as well as an update from the Treasury department regarding borrowing expectations. The latter is important for interest rates because the level of Treasury issuance is a primary ingredient in determining almost any consumer lending rate in the U.S.
4th February, 26
Blockchain, NOO HELOC, RON Tools; Better.com CEO's Thoughts; IMB Conference Observations; CFPB Update
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Can AI help you spot the lending bias you can’t see? In his CEO Magazine Podcast interview, Optimal Blue CEO Joe Tyrrell shares the company’s platform-wide AI strategy to help reduce human bias in lending decisions. Instead of replacing lending teams, AI at Optimal Blue is built as a suite of assistants, including Originator Assistant in the Optimal Blue® PPE, which reviews a wide range of loan programs and surfaces options a human might not typically consider. Grounded in clearly defined use cases, transparent prompts, extensive
Blockchain, NOO HELOC, RON Tools; Better.com CEO's Thoughts; IMB Conference Observations; CFPB Update
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Can AI help you spot the lending bias you can’t see? In his CEO Magazine Podcast interview, Optimal Blue CEO Joe Tyrrell shares the company’s platform-wide AI strategy to help reduce human bias in lending decisions. Instead of replacing lending teams, AI at Optimal Blue is built as a suite of assistants, including Originator Assistant in the Optimal Blue® PPE, which reviews a wide range of loan programs and surfaces options a human might not typically consider. Grounded in clearly defined use cases, transparent prompts, extensive
4th February, 26
Waiting on ISM Services as Early Data Fails to Inspire
Today's two key reports are ADP Employment (8:15am ET) and ISM Services (10am ET). The former came out a bit softer than expected, but bonds didn't react. 15 minutes later, Treasury released financing estimates for the quarter. These were as-expected and unchanged from the previous quarter, but Treasury noted that issuance would likely need to increase in fiscal year 2027. Higher issuance = higher rates, all else equal. This wasn't necessarily a surprise or even "new" info, but the reminder may have been worth a bit of selling at 8:30am. ISM remains the day's biggest
Waiting on ISM Services as Early Data Fails to Inspire
Today's two key reports are ADP Employment (8:15am ET) and ISM Services (10am ET). The former came out a bit softer than expected, but bonds didn't react. 15 minutes later, Treasury released financing estimates for the quarter. These were as-expected and unchanged from the previous quarter, but Treasury noted that issuance would likely need to increase in fiscal year 2027. Higher issuance = higher rates, all else equal. This wasn't necessarily a surprise or even "new" info, but the reminder may have been worth a bit of selling at 8:30am. ISM remains the day's biggest
3rd February, 26
Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere
Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere The legend of the bond market's extreme apathy is increasingly making the rounds in financial circles. Bond issuance, inflation, and economic strength are not seen surging enough to put huge upward pressure on longer-term rates. And without a big downturn in 2 of those 3 variables, there's no major impetus for a big drop in rates. So we wait (and wait and wait) while bonds gyrate in micro-ranges. Add today to the list. It might have been more volatile if we had the econ data that was postponed due to the shutdown, but JOLTS wouldn't be enough to
Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere
Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere The legend of the bond market's extreme apathy is increasingly making the rounds in financial circles. Bond issuance, inflation, and economic strength are not seen surging enough to put huge upward pressure on longer-term rates. And without a big downturn in 2 of those 3 variables, there's no major impetus for a big drop in rates. So we wait (and wait and wait) while bonds gyrate in micro-ranges. Add today to the list. It might have been more volatile if we had the econ data that was postponed due to the shutdown, but JOLTS wouldn't be enough to
3rd February, 26
Mortgage Rates Drift Up to 2-Week Highs
The bad news: mortgage rates moved up to their highest levels in 2 weeks today. The good news: the rate range has been very narrow during that time, so there's not too much of a difference between 2-week highs (6.20%) and lows (6.15%). Today's move wasn't a product of anything that happened today. Rather, the culprit was the focal point of our coverage yesterday. Specifically, an economic report on the manufacturing sector was exceptionally strong yesterday. The result was a weaker bond market and, thus, an implication for higher rates. But the report came out after most mortgage
Mortgage Rates Drift Up to 2-Week Highs
The bad news: mortgage rates moved up to their highest levels in 2 weeks today. The good news: the rate range has been very narrow during that time, so there's not too much of a difference between 2-week highs (6.20%) and lows (6.15%). Today's move wasn't a product of anything that happened today. Rather, the culprit was the focal point of our coverage yesterday. Specifically, an economic report on the manufacturing sector was exceptionally strong yesterday. The result was a weaker bond market and, thus, an implication for higher rates. But the report came out after most mortgage
3rd February, 26
Customer Intelligence, HELOC, Uplist's Recapture, Construction Products; Rates Are Driven by Markets; IMB Hallway Report
Regarding rate movement, the bond market often does the Fed’s job for it, and so whatever the Fed’s Open Market Committee actually does is almost an afterthought. The partial U.S. Government shutdown is hurting economic activity, and companies like Newrez are posting and how the shutdown is impacting lending. The FHA Office of Single Family Housing released FHA INFO 2026-05 and some of its mortgage insurance programs “will be operational but with limited services. Under a funding lapse, FHA’s actions and decisions about the operations that continue are governed by the U.S. Constitution
Customer Intelligence, HELOC, Uplist's Recapture, Construction Products; Rates Are Driven by Markets; IMB Hallway Report
Regarding rate movement, the bond market often does the Fed’s job for it, and so whatever the Fed’s Open Market Committee actually does is almost an afterthought. The partial U.S. Government shutdown is hurting economic activity, and companies like Newrez are posting and how the shutdown is impacting lending. The FHA Office of Single Family Housing released FHA INFO 2026-05 and some of its mortgage insurance programs “will be operational but with limited services. Under a funding lapse, FHA’s actions and decisions about the operations that continue are governed by the U.S. Constitution