Latest news
4th May, 26
Compliance, Surveys, eGuides and Webinars; Agency Updates; Spector Q&A
The industry is talking about their earnings: Fannie Mae had $3.7 billion of net income, Freddie Mac had net income of $3.6 billion. Regular and frequent information like this is critical to make informed decisions, whether you’re thinking about buying stock or buying a home. I recently received this note. “Rob, occasionally I am asked by my clients, and friends, if there is a ‘common way’ for the public to track real estate. Got anything up your sleeve?” Sure, and of course First American puts out some very usable information. There’s also Reventure. “Enter your city, zip, or
Compliance, Surveys, eGuides and Webinars; Agency Updates; Spector Q&A
The industry is talking about their earnings: Fannie Mae had $3.7 billion of net income, Freddie Mac had net income of $3.6 billion. Regular and frequent information like this is critical to make informed decisions, whether you’re thinking about buying stock or buying a home. I recently received this note. “Rob, occasionally I am asked by my clients, and friends, if there is a ‘common way’ for the public to track real estate. Got anything up your sleeve?” Sure, and of course First American puts out some very usable information. There’s also Reventure. “Enter your city, zip, or
4th May, 26
Weaker Start. Bonds Not Recovering With Oil So Far
The overnight and early domestic trading hours have brought a mix of familiar and unfamiliar patterns. Up until roughly 8:30am, we saw a very familiar correlation between oil prices and bond yields. Both spiked at 6am following reports that 2 Iranian missiles hit a U.S. warship. Those reports were subsequently denied and oil prices made a full recovery. The unfamiliar pattern involves bonds breaking ranks with oil to move noticeably higher at 9:20am. There are no obvious explanations in the news or on the data calendar. That basically leaves conjecture. Given the timing, one possibility is
Weaker Start. Bonds Not Recovering With Oil So Far
The overnight and early domestic trading hours have brought a mix of familiar and unfamiliar patterns. Up until roughly 8:30am, we saw a very familiar correlation between oil prices and bond yields. Both spiked at 6am following reports that 2 Iranian missiles hit a U.S. warship. Those reports were subsequently denied and oil prices made a full recovery. The unfamiliar pattern involves bonds breaking ranks with oil to move noticeably higher at 9:20am. There are no obvious explanations in the news or on the data calendar. That basically leaves conjecture. Given the timing, one possibility is
1st May, 26
Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change
Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change Bonds began the day roughly flat before losing ground modestly into the 9am hour as markets mis-read headlines regarding new peace proposals submitted by Iran. But just before 10am, similar headlines resurfaced including the claim that Iran's new proposal made concessions regarding Iran's nuclear aspirations. This accounted for a swift move into positive territory that was only partially reversed after Trump said he wasn't satisfied with the latest proposal despite acknowledging progress in the peace talks. The net effect is a
Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change
Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change Bonds began the day roughly flat before losing ground modestly into the 9am hour as markets mis-read headlines regarding new peace proposals submitted by Iran. But just before 10am, similar headlines resurfaced including the claim that Iran's new proposal made concessions regarding Iran's nuclear aspirations. This accounted for a swift move into positive territory that was only partially reversed after Trump said he wasn't satisfied with the latest proposal despite acknowledging progress in the peace talks. The net effect is a
1st May, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week on a Calm Note
Low volatility was the most obvious theme for mortgage rates last week. From April 14th through last Friday, the range for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained in an ultra-narrow range of 6.29-6.33%. That trend persisted on Monday of this week, but things changed abruptly after that. Tuesday and Wednesday saw moderately big increases that took the average all the way up to 6.50%. The past two days have been much calmer by comparison, even if rates remain elevated versus last week. Today's resilience is most easily attributed to a slew of headlines suggesting that peace negotiations
Mortgage Rates End Week on a Calm Note
Low volatility was the most obvious theme for mortgage rates last week. From April 14th through last Friday, the range for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained in an ultra-narrow range of 6.29-6.33%. That trend persisted on Monday of this week, but things changed abruptly after that. Tuesday and Wednesday saw moderately big increases that took the average all the way up to 6.50%. The past two days have been much calmer by comparison, even if rates remain elevated versus last week. Today's resilience is most easily attributed to a slew of headlines suggesting that peace negotiations
1st May, 26
Database Mining, Commercial, PPE, Lead Gen Tools; Non-Agency Updates; Capital Markets
The use of down payment assistance has risen sharply over the past year and a half, especially among FHA borrowers. Participation has jumped from 7.5 percent at the start of 2025 to over 21 percent recently, near the highest levels in years, as high home prices and borrowing costs push more buyers to seek help. Despite this increase, borrowers using DPA look very similar to those who don’t in terms of credit scores, debt levels, and loan sizes, indicating the program is being used broadly rather than just by riskier borrowers. Performance differences are modest but consistent: DPA borrowers
Database Mining, Commercial, PPE, Lead Gen Tools; Non-Agency Updates; Capital Markets
The use of down payment assistance has risen sharply over the past year and a half, especially among FHA borrowers. Participation has jumped from 7.5 percent at the start of 2025 to over 21 percent recently, near the highest levels in years, as high home prices and borrowing costs push more buyers to seek help. Despite this increase, borrowers using DPA look very similar to those who don’t in terms of credit scores, debt levels, and loan sizes, indicating the program is being used broadly rather than just by riskier borrowers. Performance differences are modest but consistent: DPA borrowers
1st May, 26
Rallying on Peace Hopes and Weaker Data
Bonds were almost perfectly flat during the overnight session along with oil and stock futures. Morning trading ushered in more volatility as the war-related headlines began to heat up. The most significant developments involve reports of a new peace proposal from Iran--one that potentially offers more concessions on nuclear aspirations. News is thin so far, but oil prices are moving lower and bond yields are following with 10s moving from 4.40 to under 4.35 in fairly short order. ISM Manufacturing came in weaker around the same time and contributed to the move. While it's a nice move in the
Rallying on Peace Hopes and Weaker Data
Bonds were almost perfectly flat during the overnight session along with oil and stock futures. Morning trading ushered in more volatility as the war-related headlines began to heat up. The most significant developments involve reports of a new peace proposal from Iran--one that potentially offers more concessions on nuclear aspirations. News is thin so far, but oil prices are moving lower and bond yields are following with 10s moving from 4.40 to under 4.35 in fairly short order. ISM Manufacturing came in weaker around the same time and contributed to the move. While it's a nice move in the
30th April, 26
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely Ever since bottoming out together on the morning of April 17th, bond yields and oil prices have been moving higher together. The early overnight trading hours may have witnessed a bit of a "blow-off top" (fancy words that basically mean markets reversed course simply because they'd gone too high, too fast). In other words, there wasn't an overt reason for the reversal in the news cycle. That said, there arguably wasn't sufficient justification for the last leg of the rate/oil spike seen yesterday. Econ data didn't necessarily drive any of the
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely Ever since bottoming out together on the morning of April 17th, bond yields and oil prices have been moving higher together. The early overnight trading hours may have witnessed a bit of a "blow-off top" (fancy words that basically mean markets reversed course simply because they'd gone too high, too fast). In other words, there wasn't an overt reason for the reversal in the news cycle. That said, there arguably wasn't sufficient justification for the last leg of the rate/oil spike seen yesterday. Econ data didn't necessarily drive any of the
30th April, 26
Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Yesterday's Losses
Mortgage rates spiked on Wednesday (yesterday) after reports suggested a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As has been the case for most of the past 2 months, interest rate movement was clearly correlated with oil prices. Now today, both are moving back in the other direction though not for reasons that are as obvious as yesterday's. The rally began just after 2am ET with both oil prices and bond yields dropping in concert. Lower bond yields mean lower rates, all else equal. After hitting 6.50% for top-tier 30yr fixed rates, the average lender is back down to 6.45--roughly where they
Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Yesterday's Losses
Mortgage rates spiked on Wednesday (yesterday) after reports suggested a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As has been the case for most of the past 2 months, interest rate movement was clearly correlated with oil prices. Now today, both are moving back in the other direction though not for reasons that are as obvious as yesterday's. The rally began just after 2am ET with both oil prices and bond yields dropping in concert. Lower bond yields mean lower rates, all else equal. After hitting 6.50% for top-tier 30yr fixed rates, the average lender is back down to 6.45--roughly where they
30th April, 26
March Housing Starts Surge 10.8% as Permits Slide
Residential construction activity moved in opposite directions in March, as housing starts posted a strong rebound while building permits fell sharply from the previous month’s elevated pace. The latest Census Bureau report suggests builders accelerated new projects even as future pipeline activity softened. Privately owned housing starts rose 10.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.502 million , up from February’s revised 1.356 million pace. Starts were also 10.8% higher than March 2025 levels. Single-family starts increased 9.7% to 1.032 million, while multifamily starts (
March Housing Starts Surge 10.8% as Permits Slide
Residential construction activity moved in opposite directions in March, as housing starts posted a strong rebound while building permits fell sharply from the previous month’s elevated pace. The latest Census Bureau report suggests builders accelerated new projects even as future pipeline activity softened. Privately owned housing starts rose 10.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.502 million , up from February’s revised 1.356 million pace. Starts were also 10.8% higher than March 2025 levels. Single-family starts increased 9.7% to 1.032 million, while multifamily starts (
30th April, 26
Purchase Applications Rise Again Despite Higher Rates and Fewer Refis
Mortgage applications eased modestly last week, giving back a small portion of the prior week’s sharp gains as rates moved slightly higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.6% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 24. The pullback was driven by softer refinance demand, while purchase activity continued to improve. The Refinance Index fell 4% from the previous week but remained 51% higher than the same week one year ago. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% week over week and stood 21% above last year’s level. The
Purchase Applications Rise Again Despite Higher Rates and Fewer Refis
Mortgage applications eased modestly last week, giving back a small portion of the prior week’s sharp gains as rates moved slightly higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.6% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 24. The pullback was driven by softer refinance demand, while purchase activity continued to improve. The Refinance Index fell 4% from the previous week but remained 51% higher than the same week one year ago. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% week over week and stood 21% above last year’s level. The