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10th December, 25
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and
10th December, 25
DPA, Quick HELOC, Non-QM, Processing, AI Tools; Assumable Mortgages? Homebuyer Age Study
Somewhere, in a parallel universe, Mariah Carey is walking around some supermarket, sick of listening to me sing Christmas carols. This is, of course, a humorous assumption, but what isn’t so humorous is the discussion begun by the Trump Administration about assumable mortgages, arguably the bane of MBS investors. Locked-in mortgage rates and frozen inventory have pushed an old idea back into the spotlight: the assumable mortgage, a feature long limited to FHA and VA loans but now debated as a potential fix for an affordability crisis that rate cuts alone cannot solve. As millions of ultra-
DPA, Quick HELOC, Non-QM, Processing, AI Tools; Assumable Mortgages? Homebuyer Age Study
Somewhere, in a parallel universe, Mariah Carey is walking around some supermarket, sick of listening to me sing Christmas carols. This is, of course, a humorous assumption, but what isn’t so humorous is the discussion begun by the Trump Administration about assumable mortgages, arguably the bane of MBS investors. Locked-in mortgage rates and frozen inventory have pushed an old idea back into the spotlight: the assumable mortgage, a feature long limited to FHA and VA loans but now debated as a potential fix for an affordability crisis that rate cuts alone cannot solve. As millions of ultra-
10th December, 25
What to Watch in Today's Dot Plot
Bonds were modestly weaker overnight, but have moved back into positive territory after this morning's Employment Cost Index and NYSE. This means 10yr yields are at the bleeding edge of the 3-month range heading into this afternoon's Fed announcement. The rate cut is about as close to a foregone conclusion as normal, so the focus remains squarely on the dot plot (and the press conference, to a lesser extent). The last dot plot showed one more cut in 2025 and one additional cut in 2026, but 2026's dots are much more dispersed. With some of the more hawkish speeches recently, the risk is
What to Watch in Today's Dot Plot
Bonds were modestly weaker overnight, but have moved back into positive territory after this morning's Employment Cost Index and NYSE. This means 10yr yields are at the bleeding edge of the 3-month range heading into this afternoon's Fed announcement. The rate cut is about as close to a foregone conclusion as normal, so the focus remains squarely on the dot plot (and the press conference, to a lesser extent). The last dot plot showed one more cut in 2025 and one additional cut in 2026, but 2026's dots are much more dispersed. With some of the more hawkish speeches recently, the risk is
9th December, 25
Wednesday is All About Dot Plot and Powell
Wednesday is All About Dot Plot and Powell Bonds lost ground moderately and logically on Tuesday in response to the JOLTS data. From here, this week's volatility potential hinges on the Fed. Fed Funds Futures suggest that there's been no change in rate cut prospects for Wednesday's meeting. It remains a nearly a 90% probability and thus a non-event when the cut is announced. The more important events will be the 2pm ET release of the dot plot (individual Fed member forecasts for the Fed Funds Rate) and the 2:30pm press conference with Fed Chair Powell. While it may be
Wednesday is All About Dot Plot and Powell
Wednesday is All About Dot Plot and Powell Bonds lost ground moderately and logically on Tuesday in response to the JOLTS data. From here, this week's volatility potential hinges on the Fed. Fed Funds Futures suggest that there's been no change in rate cut prospects for Wednesday's meeting. It remains a nearly a 90% probability and thus a non-event when the cut is announced. The more important events will be the 2pm ET release of the dot plot (individual Fed member forecasts for the Fed Funds Rate) and the 2:30pm press conference with Fed Chair Powell. While it may be
9th December, 25
Can The Fed Pull Mortgage Rates Off The Ceiling?
Mortgage rates were surprisingly steady on Tuesday with most lenders roughly in line with Monday's levels. Why surprising? Because the bond market was noticeably weaker and bonds dictate day to day mortgage rate movement. In Tuesday's case, we can actually reconcile the steadiness with the timing of bond market movement. Specifically, bonds didn't lose ground until after the 10am release of the Job Openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most mortgage lenders consider bond market levels before 10am when setting rates for the day. The implication is that if bonds are at the
Can The Fed Pull Mortgage Rates Off The Ceiling?
Mortgage rates were surprisingly steady on Tuesday with most lenders roughly in line with Monday's levels. Why surprising? Because the bond market was noticeably weaker and bonds dictate day to day mortgage rate movement. In Tuesday's case, we can actually reconcile the steadiness with the timing of bond market movement. Specifically, bonds didn't lose ground until after the 10am release of the Job Openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most mortgage lenders consider bond market levels before 10am when setting rates for the day. The implication is that if bonds are at the
9th December, 25
Home Equity, Borrower Mining, Flood Tools; Milliman/MorVest Deal; Credit Cost News; Prepayments Slowing
“Seminar ‘How to avoid frauds’ is canceled. Tickets are non-refundable.” Collectively, we don’t want mortgage fraud, right? It’s a non-partisan issue. A grand jury rejected a new mortgage fraud indictment against New York Attorney General Letitia James. Meanwhile, it must be difficult living under a constant microscope, and yesterday a story broke that “Trump’s Own Mortgages Match His Description of Mortgage Fraud.” (Government watchers also noted that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that he has “divested” himself of North Dakota soybean farmland while
Home Equity, Borrower Mining, Flood Tools; Milliman/MorVest Deal; Credit Cost News; Prepayments Slowing
“Seminar ‘How to avoid frauds’ is canceled. Tickets are non-refundable.” Collectively, we don’t want mortgage fraud, right? It’s a non-partisan issue. A grand jury rejected a new mortgage fraud indictment against New York Attorney General Letitia James. Meanwhile, it must be difficult living under a constant microscope, and yesterday a story broke that “Trump’s Own Mortgages Match His Description of Mortgage Fraud.” (Government watchers also noted that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that he has “divested” himself of North Dakota soybean farmland while
9th December, 25
Job Openings Data Causing Weakness in Bonds
Tuesday is a fairly straightforward session for the bond market. By now, we assume most of the pre-Fed positioning would be out of the way, and we know there was a decent amount of anticipation for the JOLTS data (job openings and labor turnover survey). True to form, volume spiked to its highest levels since the 11/20 delayed release of the jobs report. Unfortunately for bonds, job openings came in higher. The saving grace is that the "quits" rate fell to the lowest levels of the cycle (lower quits = good for rates, all else equal). The net effect is still a sell-off in bonds, but
Job Openings Data Causing Weakness in Bonds
Tuesday is a fairly straightforward session for the bond market. By now, we assume most of the pre-Fed positioning would be out of the way, and we know there was a decent amount of anticipation for the JOLTS data (job openings and labor turnover survey). True to form, volume spiked to its highest levels since the 11/20 delayed release of the jobs report. Unfortunately for bonds, job openings came in higher. The saving grace is that the "quits" rate fell to the lowest levels of the cycle (lower quits = good for rates, all else equal). The net effect is still a sell-off in bonds, but
8th December, 25
Pre Fed Jitters? Not Exactly
Pre Fed Jitters? Not Exactly Both stocks and bonds began to swoon moments after this morning's 9:30am NYSE open. That sort of pervasive selling is often seen when the Fed's rate cut outlook is deteriorating. With the Fed on deck Wednesday, it would be easy to slap "pre-Fed jitters" on the label of today's sell-off and call it good. But Fed Funds Futures don't corroborate that narrative. In fact, nothing does (at least not when it comes to obvious data/events/news). We're left to lean on "elevated random volatility between Thanksgiving and New Years." It's our least favorite
Pre Fed Jitters? Not Exactly
Pre Fed Jitters? Not Exactly Both stocks and bonds began to swoon moments after this morning's 9:30am NYSE open. That sort of pervasive selling is often seen when the Fed's rate cut outlook is deteriorating. With the Fed on deck Wednesday, it would be easy to slap "pre-Fed jitters" on the label of today's sell-off and call it good. But Fed Funds Futures don't corroborate that narrative. In fact, nothing does (at least not when it comes to obvious data/events/news). We're left to lean on "elevated random volatility between Thanksgiving and New Years." It's our least favorite
8th December, 25
Mortgage Rates Start Week Near 3 Month Highs
Both stocks and bonds lost ground on Monday. This pushed mortgage rates up near their highest levels in just over 3 months (because mortgages are based on bond prices). To put the 3-month highs in perspective, today's rates are right in line with those seen 2 weeks ago. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] When we see a larger-than-average shift in rates, it's often attributable to an obvious catalyst. These can be things like economic reports, comments from the Fed, or geopolitical developments. In today's case, there are no obvious scapegoats. That said, given the proximity of the next Fed
Mortgage Rates Start Week Near 3 Month Highs
Both stocks and bonds lost ground on Monday. This pushed mortgage rates up near their highest levels in just over 3 months (because mortgages are based on bond prices). To put the 3-month highs in perspective, today's rates are right in line with those seen 2 weeks ago. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] When we see a larger-than-average shift in rates, it's often attributable to an obvious catalyst. These can be things like economic reports, comments from the Fed, or geopolitical developments. In today's case, there are no obvious scapegoats. That said, given the proximity of the next Fed
8th December, 25
Non-Agency, DSCR, eSignature, Data Analysis Tools; Deep Dive on "Fed Week"
“Blimps are one of the only forms of advertisement people are actually excited to see.” “Rob, we see all kinds of companies advertising at conferences. We are trying to lower our cost per loan, and I am doing a more formal review of third-party providers. I am wondering if there is a list of vendors who focus on certain areas out there?” Yup: a very good place to start is The Marketplace. Page down to look at the categories. (If your company isn’t on there yet, contact Jake Perkins.) Advertising is a piece of marketing, and on today’s Now Next Later (at 1PM ET) Jeremy Potter and
Non-Agency, DSCR, eSignature, Data Analysis Tools; Deep Dive on "Fed Week"
“Blimps are one of the only forms of advertisement people are actually excited to see.” “Rob, we see all kinds of companies advertising at conferences. We are trying to lower our cost per loan, and I am doing a more formal review of third-party providers. I am wondering if there is a list of vendors who focus on certain areas out there?” Yup: a very good place to start is The Marketplace. Page down to look at the categories. (If your company isn’t on there yet, contact Jake Perkins.) Advertising is a piece of marketing, and on today’s Now Next Later (at 1PM ET) Jeremy Potter and