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8th January, 26
Mostly Quiet Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report
Mostly Quiet Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report Bonds lost a bit of ground on Thursday with most of the weakness seen in the overnight session in sympathy with European bond market weakness. The rest of the selling followed a stronger weekly jobless claims report. That said, we wouldn't give the data all the credit based on the timing of the selling and additional back-and-forth throughout the day. Tomorrow is far more interesting anyway. It brings what many view as the first clean reading of the big jobs report since before the government shutdown. Point being: the market will likely be more
Mostly Quiet Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report
Mostly Quiet Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report Bonds lost a bit of ground on Thursday with most of the weakness seen in the overnight session in sympathy with European bond market weakness. The rest of the selling followed a stronger weekly jobless claims report. That said, we wouldn't give the data all the credit based on the timing of the selling and additional back-and-forth throughout the day. Tomorrow is far more interesting anyway. It brings what many view as the first clean reading of the big jobs report since before the government shutdown. Point being: the market will likely be more
8th January, 26
Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher on Thursday. Friday's Risks Are Bigger
Mortgage rates were just a hair higher for the average lender on Thursday. The underlying bond market lost some ground following a stronger weekly Jobless Claims report and in sympathy with global bond market weakness overnight. Because rates are based on bonds, when bonds are weaker, rates move higher. There are many different economic reports that deal with the jobs market, but none more important than the Employment Situation released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics--the one typically referred to simply as "the jobs report." This month's jobs report will be released at 8:30am
Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher on Thursday. Friday's Risks Are Bigger
Mortgage rates were just a hair higher for the average lender on Thursday. The underlying bond market lost some ground following a stronger weekly Jobless Claims report and in sympathy with global bond market weakness overnight. Because rates are based on bonds, when bonds are weaker, rates move higher. There are many different economic reports that deal with the jobs market, but none more important than the Employment Situation released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics--the one typically referred to simply as "the jobs report." This month's jobs report will be released at 8:30am
8th January, 26
Hedging, PPE, Commercial, ATM Products; Trump vs. Institutional SFH Buyers; Prepayment Numbers
“Warning: don’t use your pet’s name for your password. We were hacked, and had to change our dog’s name.” “Experts” are saying that passwords will be on the way out in 2026 as passkeys take over. Good, as I am tired of carrying around a notebook with my usernames and passwords for dozens of sites. For fans of artificial intelligence (AI), we have news that a) AI generated weather predictions are making up new towns, and b) Utah is allowing AI to prescribe medicine to humans. (Taking that to an extreme, is sure sounds like the plot of a sci fi movie where us humans are unwitting
Hedging, PPE, Commercial, ATM Products; Trump vs. Institutional SFH Buyers; Prepayment Numbers
“Warning: don’t use your pet’s name for your password. We were hacked, and had to change our dog’s name.” “Experts” are saying that passwords will be on the way out in 2026 as passkeys take over. Good, as I am tired of carrying around a notebook with my usernames and passwords for dozens of sites. For fans of artificial intelligence (AI), we have news that a) AI generated weather predictions are making up new towns, and b) Utah is allowing AI to prescribe medicine to humans. (Taking that to an extreme, is sure sounds like the plot of a sci fi movie where us humans are unwitting
8th January, 26
No Help From Jobless Claims or Europe
US bonds have been taking clear cues from Europe in overnight trading recently. Today's example involved a 3bp sell-off on both sides of the Atlantic. The 8:30am Jobless Claims data may be garnering more volume, but it has only added modestly to the morning's selling pressure so far.
No Help From Jobless Claims or Europe
US bonds have been taking clear cues from Europe in overnight trading recently. Today's example involved a 3bp sell-off on both sides of the Atlantic. The 8:30am Jobless Claims data may be garnering more volume, but it has only added modestly to the morning's selling pressure so far.
7th January, 26
Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data
Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data There was certainly the potential for volatility today with the confluence of ADP, ISM, and Job Openings data. But the results ended up being close enough to consensus to obviate any massive reactions. Yields hit their lowest levels in a week after ADP came in slightly softer, but most of the rally was already in place from the overnight session. Stronger ISM and job openings pushed bonds back in the other direction, but not enough to result in bond market losses or negative reprices. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment 41k vs 47k
Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data
Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data There was certainly the potential for volatility today with the confluence of ADP, ISM, and Job Openings data. But the results ended up being close enough to consensus to obviate any massive reactions. Yields hit their lowest levels in a week after ADP came in slightly softer, but most of the rally was already in place from the overnight session. Stronger ISM and job openings pushed bonds back in the other direction, but not enough to result in bond market losses or negative reprices. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment 41k vs 47k
7th January, 26
Another 2-Month Low For Mortgage Rates After Modest Drop
Wednesday had the potential to cause bigger volatility for rates due to the confluence of several important economic reports. If that data had been lopsided in one direction or the other, rates likely would have moved more. As it happened, the data was mixed. The net effect was an exceedingly modest drop in the average 30yr fixed rate. Despite the tiny move, this brings MND's 30yr fixed rate index back in line with the 2-month lows seen on several recent occasions. Bottom line: today ended up being uneventful in an inoffensive way. From here, Friday's jobs report represents the same sort
Another 2-Month Low For Mortgage Rates After Modest Drop
Wednesday had the potential to cause bigger volatility for rates due to the confluence of several important economic reports. If that data had been lopsided in one direction or the other, rates likely would have moved more. As it happened, the data was mixed. The net effect was an exceedingly modest drop in the average 30yr fixed rate. Despite the tiny move, this brings MND's 30yr fixed rate index back in line with the 2-month lows seen on several recent occasions. Bottom line: today ended up being uneventful in an inoffensive way. From here, Friday's jobs report represents the same sort
7th January, 26
Asurity Forum; HELOC, 2nd, Non-QM Product News; Homebuyer Demographics
What are the attributes of a successful loan officer? In my years of listening to LOs compare notes, many mention “mindset” since the job sometimes can be a grind. LOs fully explore possible niches, manage their database, strive toward leadership, and are willing to understand lending regulations and comply. Regarding that last one, tomorrow’s The Big Picture (January 8) at 3PM ET features MQMR’s Scott Weintraub to break down the regulatory outlook under a new administration, including potential CFPB changes, enforcement priorities, and areas of lingering uncertainty for lenders. They
Asurity Forum; HELOC, 2nd, Non-QM Product News; Homebuyer Demographics
What are the attributes of a successful loan officer? In my years of listening to LOs compare notes, many mention “mindset” since the job sometimes can be a grind. LOs fully explore possible niches, manage their database, strive toward leadership, and are willing to understand lending regulations and comply. Regarding that last one, tomorrow’s The Big Picture (January 8) at 3PM ET features MQMR’s Scott Weintraub to break down the regulatory outlook under a new administration, including potential CFPB changes, enforcement priorities, and areas of lingering uncertainty for lenders. They
7th January, 26
Stronger Start Thanks to Europe and ADP
Bonds rallied steadily overnight with more of the gains aligning with a data-driven bond rally in Europe. The overnight move brought 10yr yields roughly 2bps lower from yesterday's close. Another 2bps of improvement followed this morning's ADP employment data. ADP's job count wasn't particularly far below forecasts (41k vs 47k), but the previous month wasn't revised much higher (-29k vs -32k initially). At 10am ET, we'll get Job Openings and ISM Non-Manufacturing--a combo that is arguably heavier hitting than ADP, if the results are not right in line with forecasts.
Stronger Start Thanks to Europe and ADP
Bonds rallied steadily overnight with more of the gains aligning with a data-driven bond rally in Europe. The overnight move brought 10yr yields roughly 2bps lower from yesterday's close. Another 2bps of improvement followed this morning's ADP employment data. ADP's job count wasn't particularly far below forecasts (41k vs 47k), but the previous month wasn't revised much higher (-29k vs -32k initially). At 10am ET, we'll get Job Openings and ISM Non-Manufacturing--a combo that is arguably heavier hitting than ADP, if the results are not right in line with forecasts.
6th January, 26
Flat Ending After Early Head Fake
Ending Near Unchanged Levels After Early Head Fake Trading volumes confirm that bonds are 100% back in action, but after this morning's selling pressure proved to be a head fake, that volume hasn't translated to any meaningful momentum. This isn't too hard to accept considering the absence of big-ticket econ data. Things change on Wednesday with the release of ADP, JOLTS, and ISM. This is our first chance to see some actual data-driven volatility in several weeks. Econ Data / Events S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec) 52.7 vs 53.0 f'cast, 54.2 prev S&P Global Services PMI (Dec) 52.5
Flat Ending After Early Head Fake
Ending Near Unchanged Levels After Early Head Fake Trading volumes confirm that bonds are 100% back in action, but after this morning's selling pressure proved to be a head fake, that volume hasn't translated to any meaningful momentum. This isn't too hard to accept considering the absence of big-ticket econ data. Things change on Wednesday with the release of ADP, JOLTS, and ISM. This is our first chance to see some actual data-driven volatility in several weeks. Econ Data / Events S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec) 52.7 vs 53.0 f'cast, 54.2 prev S&P Global Services PMI (Dec) 52.5
6th January, 26
Mortgage Rates Barely Budge, But Volatility Risk is Increasing
Mortgage rates have been effectively unchanged for 5 straight days now. During that time, the MND 30yr fixed rate index hasn't moved by more than 0.01%. The average borrower would see almost exactly the same terms on any of these days. The absence of volatility isn't much of a surprise given the time of year and the lack of important economic data. But that changes tomorrow with the release of two labor market reports and ISM's service sector report. Individually, none of these are as heavy hitting as Friday's forthcoming jobs report, but if they all sing a similar tune, it could definitely
Mortgage Rates Barely Budge, But Volatility Risk is Increasing
Mortgage rates have been effectively unchanged for 5 straight days now. During that time, the MND 30yr fixed rate index hasn't moved by more than 0.01%. The average borrower would see almost exactly the same terms on any of these days. The absence of volatility isn't much of a surprise given the time of year and the lack of important economic data. But that changes tomorrow with the release of two labor market reports and ISM's service sector report. Individually, none of these are as heavy hitting as Friday's forthcoming jobs report, but if they all sing a similar tune, it could definitely