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30th April, 26
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely Ever since bottoming out together on the morning of April 17th, bond yields and oil prices have been moving higher together. The early overnight trading hours may have witnessed a bit of a "blow-off top" (fancy words that basically mean markets reversed course simply because they'd gone too high, too fast). In other words, there wasn't an overt reason for the reversal in the news cycle. That said, there arguably wasn't sufficient justification for the last leg of the rate/oil spike seen yesterday. Econ data didn't necessarily drive any of the
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely Ever since bottoming out together on the morning of April 17th, bond yields and oil prices have been moving higher together. The early overnight trading hours may have witnessed a bit of a "blow-off top" (fancy words that basically mean markets reversed course simply because they'd gone too high, too fast). In other words, there wasn't an overt reason for the reversal in the news cycle. That said, there arguably wasn't sufficient justification for the last leg of the rate/oil spike seen yesterday. Econ data didn't necessarily drive any of the
30th April, 26
Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Yesterday's Losses
Mortgage rates spiked on Wednesday (yesterday) after reports suggested a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As has been the case for most of the past 2 months, interest rate movement was clearly correlated with oil prices. Now today, both are moving back in the other direction though not for reasons that are as obvious as yesterday's. The rally began just after 2am ET with both oil prices and bond yields dropping in concert. Lower bond yields mean lower rates, all else equal. After hitting 6.50% for top-tier 30yr fixed rates, the average lender is back down to 6.45--roughly where they
Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Yesterday's Losses
Mortgage rates spiked on Wednesday (yesterday) after reports suggested a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As has been the case for most of the past 2 months, interest rate movement was clearly correlated with oil prices. Now today, both are moving back in the other direction though not for reasons that are as obvious as yesterday's. The rally began just after 2am ET with both oil prices and bond yields dropping in concert. Lower bond yields mean lower rates, all else equal. After hitting 6.50% for top-tier 30yr fixed rates, the average lender is back down to 6.45--roughly where they
30th April, 26
March Housing Starts Surge 10.8% as Permits Slide
Residential construction activity moved in opposite directions in March, as housing starts posted a strong rebound while building permits fell sharply from the previous month’s elevated pace. The latest Census Bureau report suggests builders accelerated new projects even as future pipeline activity softened. Privately owned housing starts rose 10.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.502 million , up from February’s revised 1.356 million pace. Starts were also 10.8% higher than March 2025 levels. Single-family starts increased 9.7% to 1.032 million, while multifamily starts (
March Housing Starts Surge 10.8% as Permits Slide
Residential construction activity moved in opposite directions in March, as housing starts posted a strong rebound while building permits fell sharply from the previous month’s elevated pace. The latest Census Bureau report suggests builders accelerated new projects even as future pipeline activity softened. Privately owned housing starts rose 10.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.502 million , up from February’s revised 1.356 million pace. Starts were also 10.8% higher than March 2025 levels. Single-family starts increased 9.7% to 1.032 million, while multifamily starts (
30th April, 26
Purchase Applications Rise Again Despite Higher Rates and Fewer Refis
Mortgage applications eased modestly last week, giving back a small portion of the prior week’s sharp gains as rates moved slightly higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.6% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 24. The pullback was driven by softer refinance demand, while purchase activity continued to improve. The Refinance Index fell 4% from the previous week but remained 51% higher than the same week one year ago. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% week over week and stood 21% above last year’s level. The
Purchase Applications Rise Again Despite Higher Rates and Fewer Refis
Mortgage applications eased modestly last week, giving back a small portion of the prior week’s sharp gains as rates moved slightly higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.6% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 24. The pullback was driven by softer refinance demand, while purchase activity continued to improve. The Refinance Index fell 4% from the previous week but remained 51% higher than the same week one year ago. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% week over week and stood 21% above last year’s level. The
30th April, 26
Home Prices Edge Higher, But Momentum Continues to Fade
Home price appreciation remained subdued in early 2026, according to the latest data from both FHFA and S&P Cotality Case-Shiller. The two reports show prices still edging higher nationally, but with momentum slowing further as affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on the market. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index was unchanged in February from the prior month, following an upwardly revised 0.2% gain in January . On an annual basis, prices were up 1.7% versus February 2025, slightly below the pace seen in prior months and consistent with a
Home Prices Edge Higher, But Momentum Continues to Fade
Home price appreciation remained subdued in early 2026, according to the latest data from both FHFA and S&P Cotality Case-Shiller. The two reports show prices still edging higher nationally, but with momentum slowing further as affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on the market. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index was unchanged in February from the prior month, following an upwardly revised 0.2% gain in January . On an annual basis, prices were up 1.7% versus February 2025, slightly below the pace seen in prior months and consistent with a
30th April, 26
Forecasting, Data, Underwriting Tools., Credit Monitoring Tools; Webinars and Thought Leadership; STRATMOR Insights
As an industry, we tend to care about interest rates, especially mortgage rates. (A recent STRATMOR piece is titled, “Mortgage Rates Are Not Random.”) But there is a group of people much less sensitive to rates and represent competition to lenders. All-cash home purchases have remained structurally elevated since early 2023, averaging 28 percent of existing home sales, well above the post-2015 norm of 23 percent, and consistently exceeding that benchmark since late 2022. Affluent households, relocating homeowners cashing out of higher-cost markets, investors, and increasingly ordinary
Forecasting, Data, Underwriting Tools., Credit Monitoring Tools; Webinars and Thought Leadership; STRATMOR Insights
As an industry, we tend to care about interest rates, especially mortgage rates. (A recent STRATMOR piece is titled, “Mortgage Rates Are Not Random.”) But there is a group of people much less sensitive to rates and represent competition to lenders. All-cash home purchases have remained structurally elevated since early 2023, averaging 28 percent of existing home sales, well above the post-2015 norm of 23 percent, and consistently exceeding that benchmark since late 2022. Affluent households, relocating homeowners cashing out of higher-cost markets, investors, and increasingly ordinary
30th April, 26
Oil Dropping, Bonds Rallying, Data Largely Ignored
From an analytical standpoint, it's hard to offer new and interesting insights when the order of any given day is simply to observe broad war-related sentiment via oil prices. From there, if bonds are diverging, we have a few things to discuss, but if bond yields are following, the case is closed. Today's case is mostly closed as the correlation is mostly there. The only minor divergence arrived after the boatload of AM econ data. It wasn't much of a move, but it was in a friendly direction despite sharply lower jobless claims. Perhaps the market was modestly relieved that year over
Oil Dropping, Bonds Rallying, Data Largely Ignored
From an analytical standpoint, it's hard to offer new and interesting insights when the order of any given day is simply to observe broad war-related sentiment via oil prices. From there, if bonds are diverging, we have a few things to discuss, but if bond yields are following, the case is closed. Today's case is mostly closed as the correlation is mostly there. The only minor divergence arrived after the boatload of AM econ data. It wasn't much of a move, but it was in a friendly direction despite sharply lower jobless claims. Perhaps the market was modestly relieved that year over
29th April, 26
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed Because today was was a "Fed day" and because bonds hit their weakest levels of the day after the Fed announcement, we may look back on the selling and blame the Fed. In actuality, the Fed was only a small piece of the puzzle. Specifically, 10yr yields had already moved up from 4.34+ to 4.40 before the Fed announcement. At the 3pm CME close, there was only 1 more basis point of selling (4.41). The overnight/morning weakness was already covered in the morning commentary, but as a reminder, it had to do with the potential for a
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed Because today was was a "Fed day" and because bonds hit their weakest levels of the day after the Fed announcement, we may look back on the selling and blame the Fed. In actuality, the Fed was only a small piece of the puzzle. Specifically, 10yr yields had already moved up from 4.34+ to 4.40 before the Fed announcement. At the 3pm CME close, there was only 1 more basis point of selling (4.41). The overnight/morning weakness was already covered in the morning commentary, but as a reminder, it had to do with the potential for a
29th April, 26
Mortgage Rates Surge Higher as US Considers a Longer Blockade
Mortgage rates jumped higher today at the fastest pace in weeks to the highest levels since March 30th. There were two key motivations for the increase, but one accounted for a vast majority of the damage. News came out overnight that spoke to the possibility of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets took this seriously because it involved conversations with oil executives to assess the the impact of a prolonged blockade on domestic energy markets and fuel prices. Bond yields (which correlate with rates) and oil prices lurched higher again this morning after a White House
Mortgage Rates Surge Higher as US Considers a Longer Blockade
Mortgage rates jumped higher today at the fastest pace in weeks to the highest levels since March 30th. There were two key motivations for the increase, but one accounted for a vast majority of the damage. News came out overnight that spoke to the possibility of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets took this seriously because it involved conversations with oil executives to assess the the impact of a prolonged blockade on domestic energy markets and fuel prices. Bond yields (which correlate with rates) and oil prices lurched higher again this morning after a White House
29th April, 26
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Available Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in Developments in the Middle East for are contributing to a high level of
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Available Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in Developments in the Middle East for are contributing to a high level of