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8th June, 26
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight session higher, but both moved to the lows of the day just after 9:30am. From then on, oil went broadly sideways while bonds sold off gradually. If oil had instead moved higher into the afternoon, we might not care about the bond market weakness. But as it stands, we have bond-specific defensiveness in the afternoon replacing the modicum of bond-specific bullishness we noted in the morning commentary. Not the end of the world, but not ideal. Market Movement Recap 09:13 AM Sideways to
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight session higher, but both moved to the lows of the day just after 9:30am. From then on, oil went broadly sideways while bonds sold off gradually. If oil had instead moved higher into the afternoon, we might not care about the bond market weakness. But as it stands, we have bond-specific defensiveness in the afternoon replacing the modicum of bond-specific bullishness we noted in the morning commentary. Not the end of the world, but not ideal. Market Movement Recap 09:13 AM Sideways to
8th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Just a Bit Higher After Last Week's Jump
The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0.02% of upward movement. Today's level of 6.68% is the 3rd highest of the past 9 months. Unlike Friday, there were no big-ticket economic reports driving volatility in rate markets. The only arguable cause and effect was seen earlier in the morning surrounding war-related headlines. These actually helped rates start the day lower than they otherwise would have. As the week continues, investors will remain tuned in to war-related developments as
Mortgage Rates Just a Bit Higher After Last Week's Jump
The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0.02% of upward movement. Today's level of 6.68% is the 3rd highest of the past 9 months. Unlike Friday, there were no big-ticket economic reports driving volatility in rate markets. The only arguable cause and effect was seen earlier in the morning surrounding war-related headlines. These actually helped rates start the day lower than they otherwise would have. As the week continues, investors will remain tuned in to war-related developments as
8th June, 26
Verification, Non-QM Corresp., AI/POS Products; Upcoming Webcasts; Non-Agency Product News
Remember when talk of a “re-IPO” of Freddie and Fannie dominated residential lending news? That has certainly quieted, Pulte’s attentions are diverted, and you can certainly buy stock in them now: share prices for both are down about 30 percent this year so maybe they’re a bargain. For those new to the biz, the FHFA oversees F&F, and the FHFA’s Director is Bill Pulte who is not without his critics and videos why. Meanwhile, in more constructive videos and interviews, housing affordability dominates the conversation, but Pennymac CEO David Spector argues the real solutions extend
Verification, Non-QM Corresp., AI/POS Products; Upcoming Webcasts; Non-Agency Product News
Remember when talk of a “re-IPO” of Freddie and Fannie dominated residential lending news? That has certainly quieted, Pulte’s attentions are diverted, and you can certainly buy stock in them now: share prices for both are down about 30 percent this year so maybe they’re a bargain. For those new to the biz, the FHFA oversees F&F, and the FHFA’s Director is Bill Pulte who is not without his critics and videos why. Meanwhile, in more constructive videos and interviews, housing affordability dominates the conversation, but Pennymac CEO David Spector argues the real solutions extend
8th June, 26
Traders Cautiously Buying The Dip
Things got a bit worse before they got better over the weekend. 10yr yields were as high as 4.58% in overnight trading, but are now roughly unchanged in early domestic trading. Oil prices mirrored the same movement overnight, but haven't recovered as much as bond yields. In fact, bonds arguably led the move lower with a gradual rally starting just after 5am ET. Most of the drop in oil prices followed news that Israel agreed to halt today's attacks in Lebanon. There is no big ticket econ data on tap. War headlines remain relevant as does the bond market's ongoing range-finding after Friday
Traders Cautiously Buying The Dip
Things got a bit worse before they got better over the weekend. 10yr yields were as high as 4.58% in overnight trading, but are now roughly unchanged in early domestic trading. Oil prices mirrored the same movement overnight, but haven't recovered as much as bond yields. In fact, bonds arguably led the move lower with a gradual rally starting just after 5am ET. Most of the drop in oil prices followed news that Israel agreed to halt today's attacks in Lebanon. There is no big ticket econ data on tap. War headlines remain relevant as does the bond market's ongoing range-finding after Friday
5th June, 26
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout If you had to find something reassuring to say about the bond market today, it would be that there wasn't much selling after 9am ET. Unfortunately, there was a whole lot of selling in the prior 30 minutes. Try as they might, analysts couldn't find any obvious holes in the strong picture painted by the jobs report. Stocks got completely destroyed as well--evidence of the jump in Fed rate hike expectations adding to a tech correction that was already underway. An Iran war peace deal remains the biggest market moving prospect on the horizon
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout If you had to find something reassuring to say about the bond market today, it would be that there wasn't much selling after 9am ET. Unfortunately, there was a whole lot of selling in the prior 30 minutes. Try as they might, analysts couldn't find any obvious holes in the strong picture painted by the jobs report. Stocks got completely destroyed as well--evidence of the jump in Fed rate hike expectations adding to a tech correction that was already underway. An Iran war peace deal remains the biggest market moving prospect on the horizon
5th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Jump After Strong Jobs Report
Over the past three months, mortgage rate movement has been driven primarily by developments in the Iran war. It's not that war, itself, is a consideration, but rather the implications for fuel prices and inflation. Bonds care deeply about inflation and interest rates are based directly on bonds. When inflation isn't raging (or at the risk of raging), rates/bonds spend most of their time thinking about the economy. Lately, the data has been even-keeled enough that it hasn't had enough of an impact to override the war's inflation-related volatility, but today was an exception. The jobs report
Mortgage Rates Jump After Strong Jobs Report
Over the past three months, mortgage rate movement has been driven primarily by developments in the Iran war. It's not that war, itself, is a consideration, but rather the implications for fuel prices and inflation. Bonds care deeply about inflation and interest rates are based directly on bonds. When inflation isn't raging (or at the risk of raging), rates/bonds spend most of their time thinking about the economy. Lately, the data has been even-keeled enough that it hasn't had enough of an impact to override the war's inflation-related volatility, but today was an exception. The jobs report
5th June, 26
Mortgage Apps Pull Back Modestly
Mortgage applications eased again last week even as borrowing costs moved lower, suggesting that modest rate relief was not enough to bring borrowers back in force. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.5% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 29. The decline was led by refinance activity, which slipped 2% from the previous week. Refinance demand remained 20% higher than the same period one year ago, however, underscoring that activity is still running above 2025’s pace even as it softens week to week. Purchase demand also
Mortgage Apps Pull Back Modestly
Mortgage applications eased again last week even as borrowing costs moved lower, suggesting that modest rate relief was not enough to bring borrowers back in force. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.5% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 29. The decline was led by refinance activity, which slipped 2% from the previous week. Refinance demand remained 20% higher than the same period one year ago, however, underscoring that activity is still running above 2025’s pace even as it softens week to week. Purchase demand also
5th June, 26
Tech Stack Mgt, Verification, DSCR, 2nd Products; In-Person Mortgage Events; What's Moving Rates?
Today we’re going to learn about the facts of life. Trivia-loving basketball facts’ fans know that this is the first time the NY Knicks have led in the finals since the night of OJ’s White Bronco car chase. Homeowner’s insurance has become the “you can’t avoid it and you can’t afford it” fact of life for some homeowners in some areas. Rate is selling yoga pants. The increase in credit union’s mortgage activities is a fact and unmistakable, and you can bet CUs will continue to press their “resi” lending advantages. Lastly, and it’s a fact that people in our biz enjoy
Tech Stack Mgt, Verification, DSCR, 2nd Products; In-Person Mortgage Events; What's Moving Rates?
Today we’re going to learn about the facts of life. Trivia-loving basketball facts’ fans know that this is the first time the NY Knicks have led in the finals since the night of OJ’s White Bronco car chase. Homeowner’s insurance has become the “you can’t avoid it and you can’t afford it” fact of life for some homeowners in some areas. Rate is selling yoga pants. The increase in credit union’s mortgage activities is a fact and unmistakable, and you can bet CUs will continue to press their “resi” lending advantages. Lastly, and it’s a fact that people in our biz enjoy
5th June, 26
Job Market Says "I'm Not Dead Yet." Bond Market Doesn't Love It
Buzz has been growing around the labor market for the past several months, but today's jobs report went the extra mile to make it official. The job market is officially re-accelerating. Actually, the better claim would be that the jobs market is simply attempting to level off after a very long post-covid normalization. Most of today's charts show that quite well. Payrolls surged to 172k vs an 85k forecast. The previous report was revised up to 179k from 115k. The unemployment rate held steady at a historically low 4.3% and dropped modestly on an unrounded basis. Volatility in the payroll
Job Market Says "I'm Not Dead Yet." Bond Market Doesn't Love It
Buzz has been growing around the labor market for the past several months, but today's jobs report went the extra mile to make it official. The job market is officially re-accelerating. Actually, the better claim would be that the jobs market is simply attempting to level off after a very long post-covid normalization. Most of today's charts show that quite well. Payrolls surged to 172k vs an 85k forecast. The previous report was revised up to 179k from 115k. The unemployment rate held steady at a historically low 4.3% and dropped modestly on an unrounded basis. Volatility in the payroll
4th June, 26
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage Slippage is a bit less severe than leakage. Neither of them will turn a green day red, but they both erode morning gains. Today's gains primarily followed a pre-market comment from Trump who said the US was in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war. Bonds hit their best levels shortly thereafter and then the slippage set in. The backtracking was more evident in Treasuries with the 10yr losing almost half of the day-over-day gains. MBS managed to hold firmer, and were still broadly in line with the middle of the AM range by 4pm.
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage Slippage is a bit less severe than leakage. Neither of them will turn a green day red, but they both erode morning gains. Today's gains primarily followed a pre-market comment from Trump who said the US was in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war. Bonds hit their best levels shortly thereafter and then the slippage set in. The backtracking was more evident in Treasuries with the 10yr losing almost half of the day-over-day gains. MBS managed to hold firmer, and were still broadly in line with the middle of the AM range by 4pm.