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29th May, 26
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct A few hours into the trading session, newswires came out that seemed to offer the best hopes of a peace deal yet. Specifically, it said that Trump was in the situation room to make a final determination on the peace deal and that issues required for the infamous one page memo had already been agreed upon. Markets were surprisingly cautious about reading too much into that, although it briefly took yields to their lowest levels of the week. By the end of the day, we learned that no decision had been made and
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct A few hours into the trading session, newswires came out that seemed to offer the best hopes of a peace deal yet. Specifically, it said that Trump was in the situation room to make a final determination on the peace deal and that issues required for the infamous one page memo had already been agreed upon. Markets were surprisingly cautious about reading too much into that, although it briefly took yields to their lowest levels of the week. By the end of the day, we learned that no decision had been made and
29th May, 26
Mortgage Rates Set to End Week Much Lower
While there are still a few hours left in the trading day, it's a near certainty that this week will end with mortgage rates at meaningfully lower levels compared to last Friday. Today is only adding modestly to that trend, but that makes it the 8th straight business day where rates have either held steady or moved lower. On that note, it's possibly worth considering that these sorts of winning streaks have definite life spans. We've certainly seen stretches of more than 10 business days without any upward movement in rates, but they're very rare. Even then, if the streak were to end on Monday
Mortgage Rates Set to End Week Much Lower
While there are still a few hours left in the trading day, it's a near certainty that this week will end with mortgage rates at meaningfully lower levels compared to last Friday. Today is only adding modestly to that trend, but that makes it the 8th straight business day where rates have either held steady or moved lower. On that note, it's possibly worth considering that these sorts of winning streaks have definite life spans. We've certainly seen stretches of more than 10 business days without any upward movement in rates, but they're very rare. Even then, if the streak were to end on Monday
29th May, 26
Inventory Builds as New Home Sales Cool in April
New home sales pulled back in April after stronger readings in the prior two months. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 622,000 , down 6.2% from March and 11.3% from a year earlier. Inventory moved slightly higher, with the number of new homes for sale rising to 489,000 , up 1.7% from March but still 2.2% below April 2025 levels. At the current sales pace, that left months’ supply at 9.4 months , up from 8.7 months in March and 8.6 months one year ago. Pricing was mixed. The median sales price
Inventory Builds as New Home Sales Cool in April
New home sales pulled back in April after stronger readings in the prior two months. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 622,000 , down 6.2% from March and 11.3% from a year earlier. Inventory moved slightly higher, with the number of new homes for sale rising to 489,000 , up 1.7% from March but still 2.2% below April 2025 levels. At the current sales pace, that left months’ supply at 9.4 months , up from 8.7 months in March and 8.6 months one year ago. Pricing was mixed. The median sales price
29th May, 26
No Surprise: Last Week's Higher Rates Hit Refinance Demand
Mortgage applications fell sharply last week as higher borrowing costs continued to pressure refinance demand, while purchase activity showed a bit more resilience. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an 8.5% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 22. The decline was driven largely by a steep drop in refinance activity. The Refinance Index fell 18% from the previous week, though refinance demand remained 19% higher than the same period one year ago. Purchase activity held relatively steady despite the rate environment. The
No Surprise: Last Week's Higher Rates Hit Refinance Demand
Mortgage applications fell sharply last week as higher borrowing costs continued to pressure refinance demand, while purchase activity showed a bit more resilience. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an 8.5% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 22. The decline was driven largely by a steep drop in refinance activity. The Refinance Index fell 18% from the previous week, though refinance demand remained 19% higher than the same period one year ago. Purchase activity held relatively steady despite the rate environment. The
29th May, 26
Annual Home Price Appreciation Staying Positive, But Just Barely
Home price appreciation slowed further in March and through the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. While national prices continued to edge higher on a nominal basis, both reports pointed to a housing market struggling to maintain momentum as affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh on demand. FHFA reported that U.S. house prices rose 1.7% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, matching the prior quarter’s annual pace. On a quarterly basis, prices increased 0.5% from
Annual Home Price Appreciation Staying Positive, But Just Barely
Home price appreciation slowed further in March and through the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. While national prices continued to edge higher on a nominal basis, both reports pointed to a housing market struggling to maintain momentum as affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh on demand. FHFA reported that U.S. house prices rose 1.7% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, matching the prior quarter’s annual pace. On a quarterly basis, prices increased 0.5% from
29th May, 26
Hedging, Non-QM, FCRA Credit Reports, PreQual, Non-Agency Product News; Capital Markets
U.S. home foreclosures are accelerating: filings rose 26 percent year-over-year in Q1 2026, to roughly 119k, the highest in six years. It’s expensive to own a home! The last time they hit this level (early 2020), government relief programs and pandemic stimulus caused them to decline. As everyone in our biz knows, the increase has been driven by soaring home insurance bills, property taxes, and homeowner association fees rather than mortgage defaults alone. Meanwhile, anyone who thinks that there is a general shortage of homes should re-think that or refine their opinion. Elliot F. Eisenberg
Hedging, Non-QM, FCRA Credit Reports, PreQual, Non-Agency Product News; Capital Markets
U.S. home foreclosures are accelerating: filings rose 26 percent year-over-year in Q1 2026, to roughly 119k, the highest in six years. It’s expensive to own a home! The last time they hit this level (early 2020), government relief programs and pandemic stimulus caused them to decline. As everyone in our biz knows, the increase has been driven by soaring home insurance bills, property taxes, and homeowner association fees rather than mortgage defaults alone. Meanwhile, anyone who thinks that there is a general shortage of homes should re-think that or refine their opinion. Elliot F. Eisenberg
29th May, 26
Flat Overnight And Slow Start
Bonds were flat overnight for a change, with just a bit of 2-way volatility but no notable directional movement. Without any new or interesting war-related headlines, what else can we even discuss in May, 2026? There's some econ data in the form of the highest Chicago PMI reading since 2022. At 62.7 vs a 50.5 forecast, it absolutely obliterated expectations, but even that was worth less than 1bp of weakness in 10yr yields. Both MBS and Treasuries remain close enough to unchanged levels as we head into the 10am ET trading hour
Flat Overnight And Slow Start
Bonds were flat overnight for a change, with just a bit of 2-way volatility but no notable directional movement. Without any new or interesting war-related headlines, what else can we even discuss in May, 2026? There's some econ data in the form of the highest Chicago PMI reading since 2022. At 62.7 vs a 50.5 forecast, it absolutely obliterated expectations, but even that was worth less than 1bp of weakness in 10yr yields. Both MBS and Treasuries remain close enough to unchanged levels as we head into the 10am ET trading hour
28th May, 26
Spoiler Alert: Yes, It Was War Headlines
Spoiler Alert: Yes, It Was War Headlines Need a way to explain overnight weakness in the bond market? War headlines. Need to know why bonds rallied sharply just after 10am ET to hit the best levels in 2 weeks? Yep, more war headlines. Granted, the 8:30am econ data was not completely ignored. A slightly softer-than-expected PCE inflation number helped bonds get back to unchanged levels, but a substantial majority of the day's volume followed the 10am news that essentially suggested the peace deal was approved, pending Trump's final sign off. Later in the day, separate newswires suggested Iran
Spoiler Alert: Yes, It Was War Headlines
Spoiler Alert: Yes, It Was War Headlines Need a way to explain overnight weakness in the bond market? War headlines. Need to know why bonds rallied sharply just after 10am ET to hit the best levels in 2 weeks? Yep, more war headlines. Granted, the 8:30am econ data was not completely ignored. A slightly softer-than-expected PCE inflation number helped bonds get back to unchanged levels, but a substantial majority of the day's volume followed the 10am news that essentially suggested the peace deal was approved, pending Trump's final sign off. Later in the day, separate newswires suggested Iran
28th May, 26
Mortgage Rates Officially Hit 2 Week Lows
We were close yesterday and we officially arrived today. Mortgage rates may still be elevated compared to almost all of the past 10 months, but they're the lowest they've been since May 14th. This was accomplished with a modest drop versus yesterday's levels after another round of news on a potential U.S./Iran peace deal. This morning's inflation data also helped the underlying bond market find its footing. In terms of nuts and bolts, top tier 30yr fixed rates fell to 6.59% for the average lender, down from 6.61% yesterday and from 6.75% last Tuesday. [thirtyyearmortgagerates
Mortgage Rates Officially Hit 2 Week Lows
We were close yesterday and we officially arrived today. Mortgage rates may still be elevated compared to almost all of the past 10 months, but they're the lowest they've been since May 14th. This was accomplished with a modest drop versus yesterday's levels after another round of news on a potential U.S./Iran peace deal. This morning's inflation data also helped the underlying bond market find its footing. In terms of nuts and bolts, top tier 30yr fixed rates fell to 6.59% for the average lender, down from 6.61% yesterday and from 6.75% last Tuesday. [thirtyyearmortgagerates
28th May, 26
Hedging, Verification, CRM, AI, Automated Pricing, Fraud Detection Tools; STRATMOR on AI
What is something that small and mid-sized lenders can’t offer? Chase rolled out a program for borrowers to earn 100,000 Chase Points. (Bilt and UWM rolled out something similar a while back.) But, nearly every lender can help borrowers with the cost of a mortgage, and STRATMOR’s current blog is “Pricing That Can Help Borrowers.” In addition, in the credit world two new automated features for the FICO Score Mortgage Simulator were announced yesterday designed to help lenders move beyond manual “what-if” credit simulations and generate personalized borrower action plans more
Hedging, Verification, CRM, AI, Automated Pricing, Fraud Detection Tools; STRATMOR on AI
What is something that small and mid-sized lenders can’t offer? Chase rolled out a program for borrowers to earn 100,000 Chase Points. (Bilt and UWM rolled out something similar a while back.) But, nearly every lender can help borrowers with the cost of a mortgage, and STRATMOR’s current blog is “Pricing That Can Help Borrowers.” In addition, in the credit world two new automated features for the FICO Score Mortgage Simulator were announced yesterday designed to help lenders move beyond manual “what-if” credit simulations and generate personalized borrower action plans more