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20th March, 26
Global Bond Market in Reprice Mode
Global Bond Market in Reprice Mode Around here, "reprice" typically refers to mid-day rate changes from mortgage lenders, but infrequently, a big picture repricing occurs in the bond market. That's what's going on in March and especially over the last 2.5 days. Wednesday's Fed comments and Thursday's ECB/BOE comments confirmed that there's a floor under short term rates for a vast majority of the planet's reserve currency holdings, AND that hikes are quickly replacing cuts as the next likely move (September Fed meeting went from 0% hike chance to more than 25% in less than 2 days).
Global Bond Market in Reprice Mode
Global Bond Market in Reprice Mode Around here, "reprice" typically refers to mid-day rate changes from mortgage lenders, but infrequently, a big picture repricing occurs in the bond market. That's what's going on in March and especially over the last 2.5 days. Wednesday's Fed comments and Thursday's ECB/BOE comments confirmed that there's a floor under short term rates for a vast majority of the planet's reserve currency holdings, AND that hikes are quickly replacing cuts as the next likely move (September Fed meeting went from 0% hike chance to more than 25% in less than 2 days).
20th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Move Back Above 6.5%
After hitting 5.99% as recently as February 27th, top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates are back over 6.5% for the average lender today--the highest they've been since September 3rd, 2025. The entire month of March has been painful for many corners of the financial market and mortgage rates are not immune. The Iran war is the underlying catalyst as surging fuel costs force global central banks to rapidly reassess inflation expectations and the policy rate outlook. As we're fond of repeating, an actual hike/cut of the Fed Funds Rate is of no concern to mortgage rates by the time it actually
Mortgage Rates Move Back Above 6.5%
After hitting 5.99% as recently as February 27th, top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates are back over 6.5% for the average lender today--the highest they've been since September 3rd, 2025. The entire month of March has been painful for many corners of the financial market and mortgage rates are not immune. The Iran war is the underlying catalyst as surging fuel costs force global central banks to rapidly reassess inflation expectations and the policy rate outlook. As we're fond of repeating, an actual hike/cut of the Fed Funds Rate is of no concern to mortgage rates by the time it actually
20th March, 26
New Home Sales Plunge to 3-Year Lows
New home sales took a notable step back in January, reversing much of the prior month’s strength and highlighting the volatility that often defines this data series. The Census Bureau reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000 , down sharply from December’s 712,000 and 11.3% lower than January 2025. For-sale inventory moved slightly higher to 476,000 , up 0.4% from December but still 4.0% below year-ago levels. At the current sales pace, months’ supply jumped to 9.7 months , up from 8.0 months in December and 9.0 months one year ago. The increase reflects the combination of
New Home Sales Plunge to 3-Year Lows
New home sales took a notable step back in January, reversing much of the prior month’s strength and highlighting the volatility that often defines this data series. The Census Bureau reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000 , down sharply from December’s 712,000 and 11.3% lower than January 2025. For-sale inventory moved slightly higher to 476,000 , up 0.4% from December but still 4.0% below year-ago levels. At the current sales pace, months’ supply jumped to 9.7 months , up from 8.0 months in December and 9.0 months one year ago. The increase reflects the combination of
20th March, 26
Reality Check For Refi Demand
NOTE: the rates discussed in this article are from MBA's weekly survey and pertain to last week. This week's rates have already moved significantly higher according to our daily data. Mortgage application activity fell sharply last week as rising rates weighed on demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 13. The decline was driven primarily by refinance activity. The Refinance Index dropped 19% from the previous week, though it remained 69% higher than the same week one year ago. MBA noted that
Reality Check For Refi Demand
NOTE: the rates discussed in this article are from MBA's weekly survey and pertain to last week. This week's rates have already moved significantly higher according to our daily data. Mortgage application activity fell sharply last week as rising rates weighed on demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 13. The decline was driven primarily by refinance activity. The Refinance Index dropped 19% from the previous week, though it remained 69% higher than the same week one year ago. MBA noted that
20th March, 26
Builder Confidence Inches Higher Amid Affordability Concerns
Builder confidence ticked slightly higher in March according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), though sentiment remains subdued as affordability concerns continue to weigh on the single-family market. The headline index rose one point to 38 , following a small upward revision to February’s reading. While the increase marks a modest improvement, builder sentiment remains well below the breakeven level of 50 that separates positive from negative market conditions. The underlying components all posted gains during the month. The index
Builder Confidence Inches Higher Amid Affordability Concerns
Builder confidence ticked slightly higher in March according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), though sentiment remains subdued as affordability concerns continue to weigh on the single-family market. The headline index rose one point to 38 , following a small upward revision to February’s reading. While the increase marks a modest improvement, builder sentiment remains well below the breakeven level of 50 that separates positive from negative market conditions. The underlying components all posted gains during the month. The index
20th March, 26
Central Banks Cite Oil to Steal Spotlight From Oil
In the space of 2 days, central banks have completely stolen the spotlight from energy prices, but they have relied on energy prices to do so. More simply put, markets had been following oil prices until this week's central bank announcements. At that point, central banks cited energy prices as a reason for bigger upside inflation risk, vanishing rate cut prospects, and in some European cases, increasing prospects for rate hikes. Even Fed Funds Futures in the U.S. are pricing in a 10% chance of a hike at the next meeting as of this morning. This coordinated pivot is reminiscent of other big
Central Banks Cite Oil to Steal Spotlight From Oil
In the space of 2 days, central banks have completely stolen the spotlight from energy prices, but they have relied on energy prices to do so. More simply put, markets had been following oil prices until this week's central bank announcements. At that point, central banks cited energy prices as a reason for bigger upside inflation risk, vanishing rate cut prospects, and in some European cases, increasing prospects for rate hikes. Even Fed Funds Futures in the U.S. are pricing in a 10% chance of a hike at the next meeting as of this morning. This coordinated pivot is reminiscent of other big
19th March, 26
Volatile Day Thanks to Central Banks And, Eventually Oil
Volatile Day Thanks to Central Banks And, Eventually Oil Bonds took a break from their lock-step tango with oil prices for most of today's session instead focusing on European Central Bank (ECB) policy news. Key considerations included a sharply higher inflation forecast, warnings of additional upside risks, and a repricing of rate hike (not cut) expectations for 2026. Combined with yesterday's bad reaction to the Fed, the front end of the yield curve got hit hard--especially in the morning--and the pain radiated outward from there. During the selling spree, oil prices were staying well
Volatile Day Thanks to Central Banks And, Eventually Oil
Volatile Day Thanks to Central Banks And, Eventually Oil Bonds took a break from their lock-step tango with oil prices for most of today's session instead focusing on European Central Bank (ECB) policy news. Key considerations included a sharply higher inflation forecast, warnings of additional upside risks, and a repricing of rate hike (not cut) expectations for 2026. Combined with yesterday's bad reaction to the Fed, the front end of the yield curve got hit hard--especially in the morning--and the pain radiated outward from there. During the selling spree, oil prices were staying well
19th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Jump Back Up to 7-Month Highs
Mortgage rates hit 7-month highs last Friday, but recovered fairly nicely on the first two days of the present week. The past 2 days have been a bit rough, unfortunately. Over that time, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate rose 0.14% to 6.43%--just a bit higher than last Friday's 6.41%. Whereas mortgage rate volatility on many recent days have been a function of oil price volatility, the past two days have had more to do with the market's reaction to central bank policy communications. Yesterday, that involved the Federal Reserve's post-announcement press conference. Today is was the European
Mortgage Rates Jump Back Up to 7-Month Highs
Mortgage rates hit 7-month highs last Friday, but recovered fairly nicely on the first two days of the present week. The past 2 days have been a bit rough, unfortunately. Over that time, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate rose 0.14% to 6.43%--just a bit higher than last Friday's 6.41%. Whereas mortgage rate volatility on many recent days have been a function of oil price volatility, the past two days have had more to do with the market's reaction to central bank policy communications. Yesterday, that involved the Federal Reserve's post-announcement press conference. Today is was the European
19th March, 26
Broker, Correspondent, Subservicer Oversight Tools; IMB Cost $11k Per Loan; STRATMOR Survey
The FHFA announced that Fannie and Freddie will remove ‘certain’ homeowners insurance requirements which may reduce costs. But what are people saying about where their industry-facing priorities are? Both are focused on leveraging technology and reminding lenders of their existing products. For example, Fannie offers a construction to perm program, as does Freddie Mac, and has “MH Advantage” for manufactured homes; Freddie has something similar. Both have the problem of educating the market about their products. Undisclosed debt and occupancy fraud are still issues, and appraisal
Broker, Correspondent, Subservicer Oversight Tools; IMB Cost $11k Per Loan; STRATMOR Survey
The FHFA announced that Fannie and Freddie will remove ‘certain’ homeowners insurance requirements which may reduce costs. But what are people saying about where their industry-facing priorities are? Both are focused on leveraging technology and reminding lenders of their existing products. For example, Fannie offers a construction to perm program, as does Freddie Mac, and has “MH Advantage” for manufactured homes; Freddie has something similar. Both have the problem of educating the market about their products. Undisclosed debt and occupancy fraud are still issues, and appraisal
19th March, 26
Bonds Ignore Oil in Favor of Repricing The Rate Outlook
At almost any moment in March 2026, a glance at the "10yr vs oil price" chart has revealed sufficient correlation to blame the bond rout on the energy price spiral. But the correlation is spotty at times and today is one of the starkest examples. Oil is essentially flat while bonds surged to higher yields overnight. We don't normally focus much on 2yr Treasuries, but the selling there is much worse than in the 10yr, reflecting a rapidly changing outlook for the Fed Funds Rate. Indeed the odds of a rate HIKE (not cut) in April rose from just over 4% to just over 10% this morning. The big shifts
Bonds Ignore Oil in Favor of Repricing The Rate Outlook
At almost any moment in March 2026, a glance at the "10yr vs oil price" chart has revealed sufficient correlation to blame the bond rout on the energy price spiral. But the correlation is spotty at times and today is one of the starkest examples. Oil is essentially flat while bonds surged to higher yields overnight. We don't normally focus much on 2yr Treasuries, but the selling there is much worse than in the 10yr, reflecting a rapidly changing outlook for the Fed Funds Rate. Indeed the odds of a rate HIKE (not cut) in April rose from just over 4% to just over 10% this morning. The big shifts