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1st July, 26
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling The past 2 days have been rough for the bond market--nothing catastrophic, but "brisk" in terms of unexpected selling pressure. To be fair, buying/selling pressure is never truly expected (otherwise, why wait to trade it?), and higher volatility was definitely a risk surrounding quarter-end and the data calendar. Today could have been worse, but the market found some solace in this morning's Warsh comments the ECB SINTRA conference. Warsh stuck to the "no forward guidance" script but managed to offer some in a roundabout way by
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling The past 2 days have been rough for the bond market--nothing catastrophic, but "brisk" in terms of unexpected selling pressure. To be fair, buying/selling pressure is never truly expected (otherwise, why wait to trade it?), and higher volatility was definitely a risk surrounding quarter-end and the data calendar. Today could have been worse, but the market found some solace in this morning's Warsh comments the ECB SINTRA conference. Warsh stuck to the "no forward guidance" script but managed to offer some in a roundabout way by
1st July, 26
Mortgage Rates Jump to Highest Levels in a Week
In a real sense, today's rate update is more of an addendum to yesterday's rate update. Yesterday afternoon saw heavy, continued selling in the bond market amid a flood of trading associated with the end of the quarter. Because mortgage rates are directly based on the bond market, this resulted in multiple lenders raising rates late in the day (after yesterday's update). Today has been much calmer by comparison with bonds holding fairly close to yesterday's latest levels after some early weakness. Even so, there was still some weakness for mortgage lenders to account for. From yesterday
Mortgage Rates Jump to Highest Levels in a Week
In a real sense, today's rate update is more of an addendum to yesterday's rate update. Yesterday afternoon saw heavy, continued selling in the bond market amid a flood of trading associated with the end of the quarter. Because mortgage rates are directly based on the bond market, this resulted in multiple lenders raising rates late in the day (after yesterday's update). Today has been much calmer by comparison with bonds holding fairly close to yesterday's latest levels after some early weakness. Even so, there was still some weakness for mortgage lenders to account for. From yesterday
1st July, 26
Accounting, AllReg's AI Tools; Isaac Boltansky Interview; CRA Stats; STRATMOR on LO Trust
We find ourselves in the 3rd quarter of 2026. The stock market has made the headlines, but between a) the reduction in the number of publicly held companies, and b) the weight given to AI-related stocks, it is worth reminding everyone that the stock market is not the economy. Economies are complex, as are countries. Did you know that more Europeans die each year from summer heat than Americans die from gun violence? Over 1,000 recently in France; 1,500 deaths in Western Europe are being attributed to the climate. Returning to this country, there are six state capitals West of Los Angeles. (You
Accounting, AllReg's AI Tools; Isaac Boltansky Interview; CRA Stats; STRATMOR on LO Trust
We find ourselves in the 3rd quarter of 2026. The stock market has made the headlines, but between a) the reduction in the number of publicly held companies, and b) the weight given to AI-related stocks, it is worth reminding everyone that the stock market is not the economy. Economies are complex, as are countries. Did you know that more Europeans die each year from summer heat than Americans die from gun violence? Over 1,000 recently in France; 1,500 deaths in Western Europe are being attributed to the climate. Returning to this country, there are six state capitals West of Los Angeles. (You
1st July, 26
Tuesday Sell-Off Sticking; Warsh and ISM On Deck
Bonds have added modestly to Tuesday's big quarter-end sell-off (a phenomenon that has nothing to do with the sorts of fundamental developments that dictate a vast majority of market movement). Thankfully, the random plumbing-related volatility is behind us as we begin the new quarter. Old-school potential volatility awaits. The morning's first order of business will be to see if Warsh says anything interesting at the SINTRA conference. After that, ISM Manufacturing data at 10am is a B+ market mover if it falls far enough from expectations.
Tuesday Sell-Off Sticking; Warsh and ISM On Deck
Bonds have added modestly to Tuesday's big quarter-end sell-off (a phenomenon that has nothing to do with the sorts of fundamental developments that dictate a vast majority of market movement). Thankfully, the random plumbing-related volatility is behind us as we begin the new quarter. Old-school potential volatility awaits. The morning's first order of business will be to see if Warsh says anything interesting at the SINTRA conference. After that, ISM Manufacturing data at 10am is a B+ market mover if it falls far enough from expectations.
30th June, 26
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day We expected volatility would pick up on Tuesday for one reason or another and it did not disappoint. Sadly, the direction of the movement was disappointing as bonds sold off steadily virtually all day. While there was a bit of selling after the job openings data at 10am ET, the bulk of the weakness is likely due to additional quarter-end position squaring and rebalancing (the same thing that helped bonds last Wednesday). This is mechanical, emotionless, non-reactive trading conducted simply to dial in certain levels of bond holdings to match investment
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day We expected volatility would pick up on Tuesday for one reason or another and it did not disappoint. Sadly, the direction of the movement was disappointing as bonds sold off steadily virtually all day. While there was a bit of selling after the job openings data at 10am ET, the bulk of the weakness is likely due to additional quarter-end position squaring and rebalancing (the same thing that helped bonds last Wednesday). This is mechanical, emotionless, non-reactive trading conducted simply to dial in certain levels of bond holdings to match investment
30th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Edge Modestly Higher
Starting last Thursday, mortgage rates have barely budged. In terms of our 30yr fixed index, the maximum day-over-day change has been 0.02% since then. The past 3 business days have seen rates either hold steady or move cautiously lower. Today's rates moved higher, but at just as slow a pace. The underlying bond market primarily took cues from trading motivations that didn't have anything to do with typical considerations like economic data and news headlines. As we discussed last week, some of the world's biggest investment accounts have been in the process of rebalancing their portfolios for
Mortgage Rates Edge Modestly Higher
Starting last Thursday, mortgage rates have barely budged. In terms of our 30yr fixed index, the maximum day-over-day change has been 0.02% since then. The past 3 business days have seen rates either hold steady or move cautiously lower. Today's rates moved higher, but at just as slow a pace. The underlying bond market primarily took cues from trading motivations that didn't have anything to do with typical considerations like economic data and news headlines. As we discussed last week, some of the world's biggest investment accounts have been in the process of rebalancing their portfolios for
30th June, 26
Medical Profession, Refi Products; Fee Standardization Thoughts; Investors and ROAD Act
Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights needed to make faster, confident decisions. Lead a smarter housing journey with Experian. Today’s has an interview with Experian’s Likhitha Mahendar Singh how the modern first-time homebuyer has evolved, why rental payment data is reshaping how lenders identify mortgage-ready borrowers, and how a data-driven approach can help better target, underwrite, and serve the next
Medical Profession, Refi Products; Fee Standardization Thoughts; Investors and ROAD Act
Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights needed to make faster, confident decisions. Lead a smarter housing journey with Experian. Today’s has an interview with Experian’s Likhitha Mahendar Singh how the modern first-time homebuyer has evolved, why rental payment data is reshaping how lenders identify mortgage-ready borrowers, and how a data-driven approach can help better target, underwrite, and serve the next
30th June, 26
Data Ramps Up And Another Dash of Quarter-End Trading
Before looking at trading screens this morning, the first order of business would have been to mention the ramp up in economic calendar activity. While the line item count is respectable, it's really only the 10am Job Openings data that packs enough of a punch to represent any serious volatility risk. Even then, sometimes it hits and sometimes it doesn't. Bonds are starting out slightly weaker thanks to another dash of quarter-end position squaring. It arrived at almost the exact same time as the last Wednesday's installment, but in the form of selling instead of buying. Thankfully, it was a
Data Ramps Up And Another Dash of Quarter-End Trading
Before looking at trading screens this morning, the first order of business would have been to mention the ramp up in economic calendar activity. While the line item count is respectable, it's really only the 10am Job Openings data that packs enough of a punch to represent any serious volatility risk. Even then, sometimes it hits and sometimes it doesn't. Bonds are starting out slightly weaker thanks to another dash of quarter-end position squaring. It arrived at almost the exact same time as the last Wednesday's installment, but in the form of selling instead of buying. Thankfully, it was a
29th June, 26
Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here
Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here Monday made it clear that traders are playing by the typical summertime, holiday week rules which often see the first day of the week result in very low volume and volatility. While participation should remain lighter than normal, that's no guaranty of an ongoing absence of volatility. Even if there are fewer traders in the room, they can still move markets if econ data or Fed-speak (Warsh is on the calendar for Wednesday) bring any surprises. We're also interested to see if there are visible shifts that transcend data/news based on the recently outsized role
Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here
Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here Monday made it clear that traders are playing by the typical summertime, holiday week rules which often see the first day of the week result in very low volume and volatility. While participation should remain lighter than normal, that's no guaranty of an ongoing absence of volatility. Even if there are fewer traders in the room, they can still move markets if econ data or Fed-speak (Warsh is on the calendar for Wednesday) bring any surprises. We're also interested to see if there are visible shifts that transcend data/news based on the recently outsized role
29th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Inch to Another 6-Week Low
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest level since May 14th. Most of the recent drop happened last Wednesday, but each day since then has added a microscopic improvement. Today was no exception with the 30yr fixed rate index falling a mere 0.01%--the lowest increment we measure. The calendar of economic events was completely empty and consequential news headlines were just as scarce. This will change over the next 3 days on at least one front. Big-ticket econ data comes out on each of the next 3 mornings. Thursday's jobs report is typically the most important scheduled monthly data, but
Mortgage Rates Inch to Another 6-Week Low
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest level since May 14th. Most of the recent drop happened last Wednesday, but each day since then has added a microscopic improvement. Today was no exception with the 30yr fixed rate index falling a mere 0.01%--the lowest increment we measure. The calendar of economic events was completely empty and consequential news headlines were just as scarce. This will change over the next 3 days on at least one front. Big-ticket econ data comes out on each of the next 3 mornings. Thursday's jobs report is typically the most important scheduled monthly data, but