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28th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Jump to 3-Week Highs After Jackson Hole Speech
Jackson Hole is a place in Wyoming, but it's also shorthand for an annual event where various central bankers get together and talk about monetary policy. The Fed Chair almost always delivers a speech and that speech occasionally causes volatility in the bond market. This year was a classic example. Fed Chair Warsh's speech focused on inflation remaining too high and on the Fed's commitment to getting inflation back down to 2.0% as measured by the annual change in the PCE Price Index (currently at 3.7%). Even if we use the most charitable methods to estimate annual PCE prices, the index would
Mortgage Rates Jump to 3-Week Highs After Jackson Hole Speech
Jackson Hole is a place in Wyoming, but it's also shorthand for an annual event where various central bankers get together and talk about monetary policy. The Fed Chair almost always delivers a speech and that speech occasionally causes volatility in the bond market. This year was a classic example. Fed Chair Warsh's speech focused on inflation remaining too high and on the Fed's commitment to getting inflation back down to 2.0% as measured by the annual change in the PCE Price Index (currently at 3.7%). Even if we use the most charitable methods to estimate annual PCE prices, the index would
28th August, 26
Mortgage Demand Remains Stalled as Rates Move Higher
Mortgage application activity softened last week, with both purchase and refinance demand moving lower as mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in three weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.0% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 21. Purchase applications were down 0.3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% below the same week one year ago. FHA applications accounted for much of the weekly decline, falling 7% . Refinance demand also lost some ground. The Refinance Index fell 2% from
Mortgage Demand Remains Stalled as Rates Move Higher
Mortgage application activity softened last week, with both purchase and refinance demand moving lower as mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in three weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.0% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 21. Purchase applications were down 0.3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% below the same week one year ago. FHA applications accounted for much of the weekly decline, falling 7% . Refinance demand also lost some ground. The Refinance Index fell 2% from
28th August, 26
New Home Sales Give Back June's Gains
The new home market struggled to maintain the momentum seen in June, with sales falling sharply in July and inventory moving higher. The latest Census Bureau and HUD figures point to another month of uneven activity for builders, as buyers continue to contend with affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates. Sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 in July, down 10.5% from June's revised 678,000 and 6.3% below the same month last year. The monthly decline largely erased June's increase, leaving the broader sales trend little changed. In
New Home Sales Give Back June's Gains
The new home market struggled to maintain the momentum seen in June, with sales falling sharply in July and inventory moving higher. The latest Census Bureau and HUD figures point to another month of uneven activity for builders, as buyers continue to contend with affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates. Sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 in July, down 10.5% from June's revised 678,000 and 6.3% below the same month last year. The monthly decline largely erased June's increase, leaving the broader sales trend little changed. In
28th August, 26
Home Price Appreciation Edges Higher Amid Growing Regional Divide
Home prices continued to edge higher in the latest readings from FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices , with both measures showing somewhat stronger annual gains than they did a month earlier. The improvement was still relatively modest, however, and inflation continued to run ahead of home values. At the same time, the national figures continue to mask a growing divide between markets where prices are still climbing at a healthy pace and those where values have begun to slip. According to FHFA, U.S. house prices rose 2.1% between the second quarter of 2025 and the
Home Price Appreciation Edges Higher Amid Growing Regional Divide
Home prices continued to edge higher in the latest readings from FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices , with both measures showing somewhat stronger annual gains than they did a month earlier. The improvement was still relatively modest, however, and inflation continued to run ahead of home values. At the same time, the national figures continue to mask a growing divide between markets where prices are still climbing at a healthy pace and those where values have begun to slip. According to FHFA, U.S. house prices rose 2.1% between the second quarter of 2025 and the
28th August, 26
Education, Underwriting, Processing Tools; Originators and Tech; Gov't Program Changes; Tech Survey
STRATMOR’s 2026 Technology Insight® Study Lender Intelligence Survey is now open, giving mortgage lenders a chance to share their firsthand experience with the technology that powers their businesses, and to help shape a clearer picture of what’s working, what isn’t, and where the industry is headed. The study reflects actual lender experience, providing an independent view of user satisfaction and Lender Loyalty Score® across a wide range of mortgage technology categories. Complete the survey and receive the results free of charge, giving you valuable intelligence you can use to
Education, Underwriting, Processing Tools; Originators and Tech; Gov't Program Changes; Tech Survey
STRATMOR’s 2026 Technology Insight® Study Lender Intelligence Survey is now open, giving mortgage lenders a chance to share their firsthand experience with the technology that powers their businesses, and to help shape a clearer picture of what’s working, what isn’t, and where the industry is headed. The study reflects actual lender experience, providing an independent view of user satisfaction and Lender Loyalty Score® across a wide range of mortgage technology categories. Complete the survey and receive the results free of charge, giving you valuable intelligence you can use to
28th August, 26
Not The Payrolls You're Looking For
In an attempt to not force another "Warsh" or "Jackson Hole" headline (because it's a coin flip as to whether it will matter), the calendar offers up another event that is almost guaranteed not to matter. Despite the familiar name, today's nonfarm payrolls data is not the NFP you're looking for (that NFP will be out next Friday). Rather, this is the preliminary annual benchmark revision which can make for big changes in the job count over the previous year, but which says nothing about the current state of the labor market. It's a statistical adjustment that is often blown WAY out of
Not The Payrolls You're Looking For
In an attempt to not force another "Warsh" or "Jackson Hole" headline (because it's a coin flip as to whether it will matter), the calendar offers up another event that is almost guaranteed not to matter. Despite the familiar name, today's nonfarm payrolls data is not the NFP you're looking for (that NFP will be out next Friday). Rather, this is the preliminary annual benchmark revision which can make for big changes in the job count over the previous year, but which says nothing about the current state of the labor market. It's a statistical adjustment that is often blown WAY out of
27th August, 26
Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck
Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck To reiterate a sentiment from this morning, there's a decent amount of focus on Friday's Warsh speech at Jackson Hole simply because it's customary to focus on Fed Chair speeches at Jackson Hole. They're hit and miss in terms of delivering on volatility potential. There's nothing else of note on the econ calendar. With Monday being the last day of the month, we could also see momentum from early month-end trading. Other than that, fuel prices continue to set the tone more often than not. Today was no exception as an early afternoon
Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck
Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck To reiterate a sentiment from this morning, there's a decent amount of focus on Friday's Warsh speech at Jackson Hole simply because it's customary to focus on Fed Chair speeches at Jackson Hole. They're hit and miss in terms of delivering on volatility potential. There's nothing else of note on the econ calendar. With Monday being the last day of the month, we could also see momentum from early month-end trading. Other than that, fuel prices continue to set the tone more often than not. Today was no exception as an early afternoon
27th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Hold Fairly Steady
Mortgage rates barely budged again on Thursday, but there was far less data to digest compared to Wednesday. Bonds (which dictate rates) were steady to slightly weaker. The "weaker" part connotes higher rates, but the weakness was late in the day and too small for most mortgage lenders to do anything about it. What does that mean? Unlike the actual bond market, which can move every millisecond, mortgage lenders only change rates 1-3 times per day, and it's usually only once per day unless market volatility is high enough. Today's volatility didn't quite clear the bar. If bonds had lost
Mortgage Rates Hold Fairly Steady
Mortgage rates barely budged again on Thursday, but there was far less data to digest compared to Wednesday. Bonds (which dictate rates) were steady to slightly weaker. The "weaker" part connotes higher rates, but the weakness was late in the day and too small for most mortgage lenders to do anything about it. What does that mean? Unlike the actual bond market, which can move every millisecond, mortgage lenders only change rates 1-3 times per day, and it's usually only once per day unless market volatility is high enough. Today's volatility didn't quite clear the bar. If bonds had lost
27th August, 26
Hedging, Accounting, Verification, Jumbo, Workflow Tools; In-Person Events
Thank you to the folks who wrote to me about their concerns with the Reno fire, knowing my ties there (my place is safe). On a broader scale, as of August 24, the United States has had nearly 51,000 wildfires, blazes that have burned over 7.8 million acres, a concern of everyone including lenders and servicers. It’s not your imagination that it’s a lot: Compared to the 10-year average, the number of fires is 129 percent of normal, and the acres burned is 168 percent of typical. Last year over the same period, there were just 45,331 fires and 4,065,073 acres burned. Water can equally be a
Hedging, Accounting, Verification, Jumbo, Workflow Tools; In-Person Events
Thank you to the folks who wrote to me about their concerns with the Reno fire, knowing my ties there (my place is safe). On a broader scale, as of August 24, the United States has had nearly 51,000 wildfires, blazes that have burned over 7.8 million acres, a concern of everyone including lenders and servicers. It’s not your imagination that it’s a lot: Compared to the 10-year average, the number of fires is 129 percent of normal, and the acres burned is 168 percent of typical. Last year over the same period, there were just 45,331 fires and 4,065,073 acres burned. Water can equally be a
27th August, 26
Counting Down to Warsh
While it may end up being a complete non-event, the bond market is counting the hours until Friday's Warsh appearance at Jackson Hole. There's nothing else on the calendar this week with any serious potential to upset the apple cart (and again, it's debatable that Warsh's speech is much more of a risk than random pre-weekend position squaring). But this is the bond market on Jackson Hole week, so the Fed Chair's speech is always a wild card simply because a few past examples have been relevant. In the meantime, bonds will take cues from fuel prices, corporate issuance, and any oversized
Counting Down to Warsh
While it may end up being a complete non-event, the bond market is counting the hours until Friday's Warsh appearance at Jackson Hole. There's nothing else on the calendar this week with any serious potential to upset the apple cart (and again, it's debatable that Warsh's speech is much more of a risk than random pre-weekend position squaring). But this is the bond market on Jackson Hole week, so the Fed Chair's speech is always a wild card simply because a few past examples have been relevant. In the meantime, bonds will take cues from fuel prices, corporate issuance, and any oversized