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29th January, 26
Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped
Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped Bonds began the day with a bit of selling pressure. It was almost too small to draw much attention to. MBS never dropped below yesterday's lows and 10yr yields merely moved back up to overnight highs (also, no higher than yesterday's highs). In other words, it was "in-range weakness"--the kind of thing we often view as incidental and inconsequential. Shortly after the 9:30am NYSE open, stocks tanked hard along with several of the recently volatile commodities. Bonds benefited from that selling, but didn't lose any ground
Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped
Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped Bonds began the day with a bit of selling pressure. It was almost too small to draw much attention to. MBS never dropped below yesterday's lows and 10yr yields merely moved back up to overnight highs (also, no higher than yesterday's highs). In other words, it was "in-range weakness"--the kind of thing we often view as incidental and inconsequential. Shortly after the 9:30am NYSE open, stocks tanked hard along with several of the recently volatile commodities. Bonds benefited from that selling, but didn't lose any ground
29th January, 26
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Despite Volatility in Other Markets
Sometimes being tuned into daily mortgage rate changes means coming across other news about financial markets. In today's case, that could expose you to anything from the massive selling of certain stocks earlier in the day or the unprecedented trading levels in various commodities. While the financial market buzz may be centered on silver and gold (and Microsoft, today), mortgage rates drifted quietly sideways. That's no surprise considering rates are based on trading in the bond market and bonds were roughly unchanged. This keeps the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.16%.
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Despite Volatility in Other Markets
Sometimes being tuned into daily mortgage rate changes means coming across other news about financial markets. In today's case, that could expose you to anything from the massive selling of certain stocks earlier in the day or the unprecedented trading levels in various commodities. While the financial market buzz may be centered on silver and gold (and Microsoft, today), mortgage rates drifted quietly sideways. That's no surprise considering rates are based on trading in the bond market and bonds were roughly unchanged. This keeps the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.16%.
29th January, 26
Property Database, Construction Products; Attorney Mitch Kider Thought Leadership; STRATMOR on AI
Fans of MASH know that Alan Alda turned 90 yesterday, and the remaining actors from the show joined him on the beach. When you reach a certain age you don’t care about the employment picture. Amazon laying off another 16,000, as announced this week, won’t help anyone’s “the economy is doing great” argument. As economist Elliot Eisenberg points out, “The most disturbing piece of information from last week’s income data is the confirmation of a complete lack of income growth over the past 12 months. During 11/24, real (after inflation) disposable (after taxes) per capita personal
Property Database, Construction Products; Attorney Mitch Kider Thought Leadership; STRATMOR on AI
Fans of MASH know that Alan Alda turned 90 yesterday, and the remaining actors from the show joined him on the beach. When you reach a certain age you don’t care about the employment picture. Amazon laying off another 16,000, as announced this week, won’t help anyone’s “the economy is doing great” argument. As economist Elliot Eisenberg points out, “The most disturbing piece of information from last week’s income data is the confirmation of a complete lack of income growth over the past 12 months. During 11/24, real (after inflation) disposable (after taxes) per capita personal
29th January, 26
Weaker After Econ Data, But Bonds May Be Looking Elsewhere
Continued jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since October 2024 and bonds are selling off a bit. Those two things may seem like they're clearly connected, but the selling didn't start for another 15 minutes after the data and the most noticeable selling has taken place in the past 15 minutes (almost a full hour after the data). As for a scapegoat for that selling, there's only conjecture. We can see surging commodities prices coinciding with Treasury sales, but we wouldn't leap to the assumption that traders are selling bonds to buy commodities. In any event, the damage is
Weaker After Econ Data, But Bonds May Be Looking Elsewhere
Continued jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since October 2024 and bonds are selling off a bit. Those two things may seem like they're clearly connected, but the selling didn't start for another 15 minutes after the data and the most noticeable selling has taken place in the past 15 minutes (almost a full hour after the data). As for a scapegoat for that selling, there's only conjecture. We can see surging commodities prices coinciding with Treasury sales, but we wouldn't leap to the assumption that traders are selling bonds to buy commodities. In any event, the damage is
28th January, 26
No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates
No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates As expected, the Fed held rates steady today. The statement was moderately more hawkish in that it acknowledged progress on the labor market front and overall economy. To the very small extent that the statement was hawkish, Powell's press conference could be viewed as counterbalancing due to the non-threatening characterization of inflation and ongoing openness to additional easing if conditions justify it. Bonds are heading out the door almost exactly in line with opening levels and there wasn't much movement in between. Market
No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates
No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates As expected, the Fed held rates steady today. The statement was moderately more hawkish in that it acknowledged progress on the labor market front and overall economy. To the very small extent that the statement was hawkish, Powell's press conference could be viewed as counterbalancing due to the non-threatening characterization of inflation and ongoing openness to additional easing if conditions justify it. Bonds are heading out the door almost exactly in line with opening levels and there wasn't much movement in between. Market
28th January, 26
Mortgage Rate Winning Streak Ends, But Just Barely
On some occasions, a rate announcement from the Federal Reserve (even one that results in no change to the Fed Funds Rate) can cause a huge move in mortgage rates. Today was not one of those days, but in its defense, it was never that likely to be. In order for a Fed announcement to have a big impact, it has to surprise the market in some way. A rate cut (or absence thereof) is rarely a surprise these days. Instead, the market is more likely to receive new information via the Fed's economic projections and the Chair's press conference. Economic projections come out every other meeting and this
Mortgage Rate Winning Streak Ends, But Just Barely
On some occasions, a rate announcement from the Federal Reserve (even one that results in no change to the Fed Funds Rate) can cause a huge move in mortgage rates. Today was not one of those days, but in its defense, it was never that likely to be. In order for a Fed announcement to have a big impact, it has to surprise the market in some way. A rate cut (or absence thereof) is rarely a surprise these days. Instead, the market is more likely to receive new information via the Fed's economic projections and the Chair's press conference. Economic projections come out every other meeting and this
28th January, 26
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate solid pace. Job gains have slowed this year, remained low, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate solid pace. Job gains have slowed this year, remained low, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides
28th January, 26
Title Strategy, Non-Agency, Construction Capital, Workflow Tools; Housing Policy, Rates, and $200 Billion
“Did you hear what NASA's new slogan will be once its budget is cut? ‘NASA: The Sky's The Limit’” If you’re a conference organizer, do you have a catchy slogan for the event? That certainly seems to be expected. Fannie Mae has a slogan (“Powering America’s Housing” or “Supporting America’s Housing,” depending on who you ask) as does Freddie Mac (“We Make Home Possible”). The two have been in the news lately after President Trump proposed his “representatives” will buy $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities. FHFA Director Bill Pulte stepped up and said, “We
Title Strategy, Non-Agency, Construction Capital, Workflow Tools; Housing Policy, Rates, and $200 Billion
“Did you hear what NASA's new slogan will be once its budget is cut? ‘NASA: The Sky's The Limit’” If you’re a conference organizer, do you have a catchy slogan for the event? That certainly seems to be expected. Fannie Mae has a slogan (“Powering America’s Housing” or “Supporting America’s Housing,” depending on who you ask) as does Freddie Mac (“We Make Home Possible”). The two have been in the news lately after President Trump proposed his “representatives” will buy $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities. FHFA Director Bill Pulte stepped up and said, “We
28th January, 26
Re-Entry Rejected. What Can The Fed Say?
Wednesday brings 2026's first Fed announcement, but it's guaranteed to be one of the least interesting. For a start, this is one of 4 annual meetings without an economic projections update and thus, no dot plot. That automatically takes any Fed meeting down a peg in importance, but there are certainly exceptions, as we learned on October 29th's meeting. That was the last time Fed rate expectations saw any major volatility as Powell pushed back on the certainty of ongoing cuts. At this point, bonds have come to terms with resilient labor data and still-too-high inflation preventing consistent
Re-Entry Rejected. What Can The Fed Say?
Wednesday brings 2026's first Fed announcement, but it's guaranteed to be one of the least interesting. For a start, this is one of 4 annual meetings without an economic projections update and thus, no dot plot. That automatically takes any Fed meeting down a peg in importance, but there are certainly exceptions, as we learned on October 29th's meeting. That was the last time Fed rate expectations saw any major volatility as Powell pushed back on the certainty of ongoing cuts. At this point, bonds have come to terms with resilient labor data and still-too-high inflation preventing consistent
27th January, 26
Gradual Weakness After AM Gains
Gradual Weakness After AM Gains Bonds began the day in weaker territory, but logged some solid gains in the first few hours. A small portion of the improvement could be arguably linked to the lowest Consumer Confidence reading since 2014 and the lowest "labor differential" of the present cycle (labor differential measures the spread between those who say there ample jobs available vs those who say jobs are hard to find). Shortly thereafter, yields began drifting higher. There was a barely noticeable bump toward weaker levels after a lackluster 5yr Treasury auction, but it could barely be
Gradual Weakness After AM Gains
Gradual Weakness After AM Gains Bonds began the day in weaker territory, but logged some solid gains in the first few hours. A small portion of the improvement could be arguably linked to the lowest Consumer Confidence reading since 2014 and the lowest "labor differential" of the present cycle (labor differential measures the spread between those who say there ample jobs available vs those who say jobs are hard to find). Shortly thereafter, yields began drifting higher. There was a barely noticeable bump toward weaker levels after a lackluster 5yr Treasury auction, but it could barely be