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7th July, 26
Rates Move Back Up With Oil Prices
It's been a while since oil prices were the focal point of the interest rate conversation, but that recently familiar dynamic is once again playing out. The U.S./Iran peace deal is on increasingly shaky ground and the ability for oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz has been increasingly compromised over the past 24 hours. Most recently, headlines suggest the U.S. is withdrawing authorization for Iran to export oil after Iran's recent attacks on cargo vessels. Rising oil prices imply higher inflation. Higher inflation leads to higher rates, all else equal. At the time of this article, the
Rates Move Back Up With Oil Prices
It's been a while since oil prices were the focal point of the interest rate conversation, but that recently familiar dynamic is once again playing out. The U.S./Iran peace deal is on increasingly shaky ground and the ability for oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz has been increasingly compromised over the past 24 hours. Most recently, headlines suggest the U.S. is withdrawing authorization for Iran to export oil after Iran's recent attacks on cargo vessels. Rising oil prices imply higher inflation. Higher inflation leads to higher rates, all else equal. At the time of this article, the
7th July, 26
Servicing, Processing Support, AI Tools ; Lenders Focusing on Consumers; Thoughts on UAD 3.6
During a recent trip overseas, I spoke to a banker who stated, “Technology doesn’t stop at the border.” True. The days of writing out this Commentary or taking an app on a yellow pad of paper are long gone. Today has the STRATMOR Group’s Advisory Angle at 11AM PT. STRATMOR Senior Partners Garth Graham and Nicole Yung explore the latest findings from STRATMOR's Technology Insight Digital Innovations study. The conversation examines where lenders are seeing the greatest return on digital investments, the barriers slowing adoption, and the technologies shaping the next phase of innovation
Servicing, Processing Support, AI Tools ; Lenders Focusing on Consumers; Thoughts on UAD 3.6
During a recent trip overseas, I spoke to a banker who stated, “Technology doesn’t stop at the border.” True. The days of writing out this Commentary or taking an app on a yellow pad of paper are long gone. Today has the STRATMOR Group’s Advisory Angle at 11AM PT. STRATMOR Senior Partners Garth Graham and Nicole Yung explore the latest findings from STRATMOR's Technology Insight Digital Innovations study. The conversation examines where lenders are seeing the greatest return on digital investments, the barriers slowing adoption, and the technologies shaping the next phase of innovation
7th July, 26
Modest Pressure, Light Data
From summertime Monday to summertime Tuesday... Yesterday's modest strength is now erased by today's modest weakness. In both cases, the movement is too small to worry about obvious catalysts, though some may assume that there's an oil price component following Iran's attacks on commercial ships in The Strait. A separate consideration would be Amazon filing for a potentially large corporate bond offering (why do we care?). But even if these things are moving markets, they're not very good at it. The same can be said for essentially all of the line items on the econ calendar today
Modest Pressure, Light Data
From summertime Monday to summertime Tuesday... Yesterday's modest strength is now erased by today's modest weakness. In both cases, the movement is too small to worry about obvious catalysts, though some may assume that there's an oil price component following Iran's attacks on commercial ships in The Strait. A separate consideration would be Amazon filing for a potentially large corporate bond offering (why do we care?). But even if these things are moving markets, they're not very good at it. The same can be said for essentially all of the line items on the econ calendar today
6th July, 26
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Uneventful Summertime Monday Volume and--sometimes--volatility can be generally lower in the middle of the summertime months as fewer traders are consistently at bond desks--especially on days adjacent to 3-day holiday weekends. Today was a classic example. Bonds barely budged and volume is on track for one of the lightest full trading days of the year. In many ways, today was simply a 4th weekend day and we'll know more about how bonds are feeling on Tuesday. But at the very least, it's somewhat constructive to be starting the week without any extension of last week's selling pressure. Econ
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Uneventful Summertime Monday Volume and--sometimes--volatility can be generally lower in the middle of the summertime months as fewer traders are consistently at bond desks--especially on days adjacent to 3-day holiday weekends. Today was a classic example. Bonds barely budged and volume is on track for one of the lightest full trading days of the year. In many ways, today was simply a 4th weekend day and we'll know more about how bonds are feeling on Tuesday. But at the very least, it's somewhat constructive to be starting the week without any extension of last week's selling pressure. Econ
6th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Start New Week Flat
Volatility is always a risk surrounding 3 day holiday weekends when it comes to markets and mortgage rates, but this time around, things have been very calm. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained almost perfectly flat versus last Thursday with the MND index technically falling by 0.01%. This week's calendar of scheduled events is less consequential than last week's. After today, there is essentially no big-ticket economic data. In the bigger picture, 30yr fixed rates are near the center of their range over the past 6-7 weeks. Collectively, that range represents the highest levels
Mortgage Rates Start New Week Flat
Volatility is always a risk surrounding 3 day holiday weekends when it comes to markets and mortgage rates, but this time around, things have been very calm. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained almost perfectly flat versus last Thursday with the MND index technically falling by 0.01%. This week's calendar of scheduled events is less consequential than last week's. After today, there is essentially no big-ticket economic data. In the bigger picture, 30yr fixed rates are near the center of their range over the past 6-7 weeks. Collectively, that range represents the highest levels
6th July, 26
HELOC, AI POS, LOS Tools; Pay Attention to Agency Changes; Housing Surplus?
One of the key selling points for an LO talking to a potential client about becoming a homeowner is the landlord/client relationship, which can go awry. (Pearl is the daughter of the short film’s director, by the way.) There are many reasons why renters aren’t owners, like, “can they not afford a residence,” or “are none available?” We recently learned that May new home sales slid to 580,000 (seasonally adjusted) and are down around 7 percent m-o-m and y-o-y. Sales of completed homes have declined for three straight months and are down over 30 percent since November. The supply of
HELOC, AI POS, LOS Tools; Pay Attention to Agency Changes; Housing Surplus?
One of the key selling points for an LO talking to a potential client about becoming a homeowner is the landlord/client relationship, which can go awry. (Pearl is the daughter of the short film’s director, by the way.) There are many reasons why renters aren’t owners, like, “can they not afford a residence,” or “are none available?” We recently learned that May new home sales slid to 580,000 (seasonally adjusted) and are down around 7 percent m-o-m and y-o-y. Sales of completed homes have declined for three straight months and are down over 30 percent since November. The supply of
6th July, 26
Steady Start; No Drama From ISM Data
Bonds weathered the 3-day weekend without issue. We started the day modestly stronger, but have moved back closer to unchanged levels in the first 2 hours. The day's only big-ticket (or semi-big-ticket?) econ data was the ISM Services index, but admittedly, that has more of an impact when it's released BEFORE the jobs report. Moreover, it was right in line with expectations at 54.0 vs 54.0, so even if this had come out last week, it may not have moved the needle. There are always multiple ways to approach trends and The bigger picture is a bit more gloomy as it involves a longer-term
Steady Start; No Drama From ISM Data
Bonds weathered the 3-day weekend without issue. We started the day modestly stronger, but have moved back closer to unchanged levels in the first 2 hours. The day's only big-ticket (or semi-big-ticket?) econ data was the ISM Services index, but admittedly, that has more of an impact when it's released BEFORE the jobs report. Moreover, it was right in line with expectations at 54.0 vs 54.0, so even if this had come out last week, it may not have moved the needle. There are always multiple ways to approach trends and The bigger picture is a bit more gloomy as it involves a longer-term
2nd July, 26
Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal
Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal Bonds rallied quickly in response to this morning's jobs report and pressed to even stronger levels by mid-day. That's the point in the day that most traders (the ones actually working) consider bonds to be "closed." You're free to do the same and count today as a win. But in the noon-2pm hour, a decent chunk of the AM gains were erased. We wouldn't read too much into those and instead view them as a facet of pre-holiday-weekend illiquidity and/or position squaring. This doesn't imply directionality in the future. It just means we have to wait for
Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal
Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal Bonds rallied quickly in response to this morning's jobs report and pressed to even stronger levels by mid-day. That's the point in the day that most traders (the ones actually working) consider bonds to be "closed." You're free to do the same and count today as a win. But in the noon-2pm hour, a decent chunk of the AM gains were erased. We wouldn't read too much into those and instead view them as a facet of pre-holiday-weekend illiquidity and/or position squaring. This doesn't imply directionality in the future. It just means we have to wait for
2nd July, 26
Mortgage Rates Recover Somewhat
Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs report (normally a Friday affair) was instead released this morning. It ended up helping rates move lower. The jobs report (officially "The Employment Situation") measures new jobs created (or lost) each month in addition to the unemployment rate. The job count was much weaker than expected and, although the unemployment rate technically dropped, it did so for the wrong reasons (fewer people considered themselves part of the workforce). In fact, if
Mortgage Rates Recover Somewhat
Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs report (normally a Friday affair) was instead released this morning. It ended up helping rates move lower. The jobs report (officially "The Employment Situation") measures new jobs created (or lost) each month in addition to the unemployment rate. The job count was much weaker than expected and, although the unemployment rate technically dropped, it did so for the wrong reasons (fewer people considered themselves part of the workforce). In fact, if
2nd July, 26
Mortgage Applications Flat, Purchase Activity Edges Higher
Mortgage application activity was essentially unchanged last week, as a modest increase in purchase demand offset a slight decline in refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.04% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 26. Purchase activity provided the week's modest support. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% from the previous week and remained 3% higher than the same week one year ago, extending a trend of stronger year-over-year demand. Refinance activity eased slightly, with the Refinance Index
Mortgage Applications Flat, Purchase Activity Edges Higher
Mortgage application activity was essentially unchanged last week, as a modest increase in purchase demand offset a slight decline in refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.04% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 26. Purchase activity provided the week's modest support. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% from the previous week and remained 3% higher than the same week one year ago, extending a trend of stronger year-over-year demand. Refinance activity eased slightly, with the Refinance Index