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2nd September, 26
Relatively Drama-Free Day
Relatively Drama-Free Day These things happen from time to time. The bond market finally had an uneventful day... sorta. This may seem like a fairly odd claim for any day where yields hit the highest levels in well over a year but those were intraday highs, and they weren't much higher than yesterday's highs. During domestic hours, 10s were mostly in a 2bp range. Additionally, there were no standout market movers for better or worse. This easily meets the definition of uneventful even if it says nothing about the volatility risks over the next 2 days. Econ Data / Events ADP Jobs 38k vs
Relatively Drama-Free Day
Relatively Drama-Free Day These things happen from time to time. The bond market finally had an uneventful day... sorta. This may seem like a fairly odd claim for any day where yields hit the highest levels in well over a year but those were intraday highs, and they weren't much higher than yesterday's highs. During domestic hours, 10s were mostly in a 2bp range. Additionally, there were no standout market movers for better or worse. This easily meets the definition of uneventful even if it says nothing about the volatility risks over the next 2 days. Econ Data / Events ADP Jobs 38k vs
2nd September, 26
Mortgage Rates Approaching 7%
First things first: when we reference average, daily, top-tier 30yr fixed rates, it is for an ideal scenario that rarely exists in the wild. The average scenario will always involve slightly higher effective rates (i.e. even if the rate is the same as national averages, it would involve additional upfront costs). As a reminder, our daily rate index accounts for upfront costs whereas Freddie Mac's weekly survey rate does not. MBA's weekly rate survey collects separate answers for rates vs upfront costs. Bottom line, while the daily index rose into the 6.9's today for the first time in more than
Mortgage Rates Approaching 7%
First things first: when we reference average, daily, top-tier 30yr fixed rates, it is for an ideal scenario that rarely exists in the wild. The average scenario will always involve slightly higher effective rates (i.e. even if the rate is the same as national averages, it would involve additional upfront costs). As a reminder, our daily rate index accounts for upfront costs whereas Freddie Mac's weekly survey rate does not. MBA's weekly rate survey collects separate answers for rates vs upfront costs. Bottom line, while the daily index rose into the 6.9's today for the first time in more than
2nd September, 26
HELOC, TPO, API, Non-Agency Products; Webcasts; Why Rates Are Where They Are: We're Not Alone
I’ve been in capital markets for over 40 years, and this rate and affordability environment is tough. Any lender who finds these higher rates boring, well, don’t hold your breath waiting for them to come down.) Principal, interest, taxes, and insurance (PITA) is only part of the affordability equation, but market forces determine long term rates, not the government or the Fed. Some estimates have property taxes and insurance up 20-30 percent over the last year. Condo special assessments? Here’s a story about some condo owners hit with a $5 million “emergency” roof bill. What does
HELOC, TPO, API, Non-Agency Products; Webcasts; Why Rates Are Where They Are: We're Not Alone
I’ve been in capital markets for over 40 years, and this rate and affordability environment is tough. Any lender who finds these higher rates boring, well, don’t hold your breath waiting for them to come down.) Principal, interest, taxes, and insurance (PITA) is only part of the affordability equation, but market forces determine long term rates, not the government or the Fed. Some estimates have property taxes and insurance up 20-30 percent over the last year. Condo special assessments? Here’s a story about some condo owners hit with a $5 million “emergency” roof bill. What does
2nd September, 26
No News is Good News
Bonds were initially a hair weaker overnight but reversed course starting around 7am ET as oil prices fell. On the other hand, oil had already begun moving lower earlier in the overnight session without a proportional response in bonds. In other words, there was some extra oomph behind the 7am move. This could be as simple as different traders being awake and tuned-in at different times of day, but could also suggest large money managers buying the dip (in both stocks and bonds) amid an absence of additional negative news on the Iran war.
No News is Good News
Bonds were initially a hair weaker overnight but reversed course starting around 7am ET as oil prices fell. On the other hand, oil had already begun moving lower earlier in the overnight session without a proportional response in bonds. In other words, there was some extra oomph behind the 7am move. This could be as simple as different traders being awake and tuned-in at different times of day, but could also suggest large money managers buying the dip (in both stocks and bonds) amid an absence of additional negative news on the Iran war.
1st September, 26
More War. More Selling
More War. More Selling Tuesday was as straightforward as it was unpleasant for the bond market. Mid-day news regarding new air strikes in Iran caused an immediate reaction in oil prices. This was more than enough to reverse the rally that followed this morning's 10am ET economic data. Oil prices hit the highest level since late July and bond yields matched the highest closing levels since January 2025. Econ Data / Events ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.6 vs 55.2 f'cast, 55.6 prev ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Aug) 71.1 vs 72 f'cast, 71.1 prev USA JOLTS Job Openings (Jul) 7.271M vs 7.3M f'cast, 7.359M
More War. More Selling
More War. More Selling Tuesday was as straightforward as it was unpleasant for the bond market. Mid-day news regarding new air strikes in Iran caused an immediate reaction in oil prices. This was more than enough to reverse the rally that followed this morning's 10am ET economic data. Oil prices hit the highest level since late July and bond yields matched the highest closing levels since January 2025. Econ Data / Events ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.6 vs 55.2 f'cast, 55.6 prev ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Aug) 71.1 vs 72 f'cast, 71.1 prev USA JOLTS Job Openings (Jul) 7.271M vs 7.3M f'cast, 7.359M
1st September, 26
Mortgage Rates Pushing New Long-Term Highs
Fighting intensified today between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices moved higher fairly quickly and bond yields followed. This has been a common pattern during the Iran war as higher oil prices imply higher inflation which, in turn, implies higher yields/rates. Yesterday's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate hit the highest levels since June 2025. Today's increase was modest in the bigger picture. At 6.89%, we're still well below that June 2025 high of 6.97%. [thirtyyearmortgagerates
Mortgage Rates Pushing New Long-Term Highs
Fighting intensified today between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices moved higher fairly quickly and bond yields followed. This has been a common pattern during the Iran war as higher oil prices imply higher inflation which, in turn, implies higher yields/rates. Yesterday's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate hit the highest levels since June 2025. Today's increase was modest in the bigger picture. At 6.89%, we're still well below that June 2025 high of 6.97%. [thirtyyearmortgagerates
1st September, 26
2nd Lien Reverse, Conversion, Settlement Tools; Bill Cosgrove on Consolidation; Agency News
I don’t know where August went, but it went somewhere. We’re now two thirds of the way through the 3rd quarter of 2026. Lenders and vendors are adapting to a lackluster homebuying “season,” stubborn rates, and origination costs around $11k per loan. Lenders are trying to drive that cost down through higher pull through. Labor Day is next Monday, and “Talk Like a Pirate Day” is the 19th. Loan originators are watching demographics, people in their 20s, and are also following trends in the rental markets and with landlords. Along these lines, here are some great landlord stats (
2nd Lien Reverse, Conversion, Settlement Tools; Bill Cosgrove on Consolidation; Agency News
I don’t know where August went, but it went somewhere. We’re now two thirds of the way through the 3rd quarter of 2026. Lenders and vendors are adapting to a lackluster homebuying “season,” stubborn rates, and origination costs around $11k per loan. Lenders are trying to drive that cost down through higher pull through. Labor Day is next Monday, and “Talk Like a Pirate Day” is the 19th. Loan originators are watching demographics, people in their 20s, and are also following trends in the rental markets and with landlords. Along these lines, here are some great landlord stats (
1st September, 26
Selling Continues And It's Not Just Oil
Bond yields broke long term highs yesterday and are moving slightly higher again today. In both cases, we're NOT seeing the same level of intraday correlation with oil prices that we've almost always seen on days without another compelling motivation for bonds. That said, oil prices still moved higher, so we can't discount its impact. If we zoom out, the correlation improves, but we can still see that bonds have some of their own, non-oil-related concerns (issuance, Fed policy, etc.). Counterpoint: tankers and semi trucks don't run on crude oil. From here, econ data will be a risk/opportunity
Selling Continues And It's Not Just Oil
Bond yields broke long term highs yesterday and are moving slightly higher again today. In both cases, we're NOT seeing the same level of intraday correlation with oil prices that we've almost always seen on days without another compelling motivation for bonds. That said, oil prices still moved higher, so we can't discount its impact. If we zoom out, the correlation improves, but we can still see that bonds have some of their own, non-oil-related concerns (issuance, Fed policy, etc.). Counterpoint: tankers and semi trucks don't run on crude oil. From here, econ data will be a risk/opportunity
31st August, 26
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse 10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July and just over 4.75% today. That's the highest close since January 2025 which, at first glance, sounds pretty gloomy. But it's worth noting that several days have ended just a bp or two below today's levels. In other words, it was ultimately a small, incremental bump. Perhaps more importantly, it was not-at-all out of character with respect to the prevailing trend. Market Movement Recap 09:33 AM MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.753 12:24 PM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse 10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July and just over 4.75% today. That's the highest close since January 2025 which, at first glance, sounds pretty gloomy. But it's worth noting that several days have ended just a bp or two below today's levels. In other words, it was ultimately a small, incremental bump. Perhaps more importantly, it was not-at-all out of character with respect to the prevailing trend. Market Movement Recap 09:33 AM MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.753 12:24 PM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr
31st August, 26
Highest Mortgage Rates in Over a Year, But Just Barely
Bonds lost ground today, largely due to mechanical, month-end trading (i.e. not due to economic data, inflation, or news headlines). When bonds lose ground, rates rise, all else equal. Mortgage rates were already fairly close to longer-term highs last week. Today's increase was just enough to nudge the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.87%--the highest since June 2025. While that sounds fairly gloomy, the average borrower wouldn't see any difference from those seen on July 23rd, 2026. [thirtyyearmortgagerates
Highest Mortgage Rates in Over a Year, But Just Barely
Bonds lost ground today, largely due to mechanical, month-end trading (i.e. not due to economic data, inflation, or news headlines). When bonds lose ground, rates rise, all else equal. Mortgage rates were already fairly close to longer-term highs last week. Today's increase was just enough to nudge the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.87%--the highest since June 2025. While that sounds fairly gloomy, the average borrower wouldn't see any difference from those seen on July 23rd, 2026. [thirtyyearmortgagerates