Latest news
9th September, 26
Correspondent, Signing, Multifamily Tools; STRATMOR Tech Survey; Capital Markets; Rocket's Loan Limits
What should we talk about today? Besides TSA bringing back gate access, here’s a leading IMB exec and his wife putting their Florida home on the market for “a pretty penny.” There’s talk at conferences, not only about things being slower than expected in 2026 and potentially even slower in 2027, but also of LO and branch movement. It reminds me of the adage, “If you came here for a signing bonus, you’re going to leave for a signing bonus.” In legal news, there’s Brian Levy's latest Mortgage Musing which summarizes the MBA's doctrinally strategic lawsuit launched late last week
Correspondent, Signing, Multifamily Tools; STRATMOR Tech Survey; Capital Markets; Rocket's Loan Limits
What should we talk about today? Besides TSA bringing back gate access, here’s a leading IMB exec and his wife putting their Florida home on the market for “a pretty penny.” There’s talk at conferences, not only about things being slower than expected in 2026 and potentially even slower in 2027, but also of LO and branch movement. It reminds me of the adage, “If you came here for a signing bonus, you’re going to leave for a signing bonus.” In legal news, there’s Brian Levy's latest Mortgage Musing which summarizes the MBA's doctrinally strategic lawsuit launched late last week
9th September, 26
Are Bonds Fighting Oil Implications Thanks to Buyback Hopes?
Not much is going on in terms of scheduled economic events until Thursday and Friday's PPI and CPI reports respectively. Those could be very big deals as some investors think the results will determine "hike vs hold" at next week's Fed meeting. Today's biggest to-do is probably the 11am announcement of the next round of Treasury buybacks. Treasury already announced that the 10-30yr buybacks would be $4 bn per operation, but Bessent subsequently said that was a minimum amount. He spoke again this morning, and literally said "I am the house now," and "you can bet against me if you want." Sounds
Are Bonds Fighting Oil Implications Thanks to Buyback Hopes?
Not much is going on in terms of scheduled economic events until Thursday and Friday's PPI and CPI reports respectively. Those could be very big deals as some investors think the results will determine "hike vs hold" at next week's Fed meeting. Today's biggest to-do is probably the 11am announcement of the next round of Treasury buybacks. Treasury already announced that the 10-30yr buybacks would be $4 bn per operation, but Bessent subsequently said that was a minimum amount. He spoke again this morning, and literally said "I am the house now," and "you can bet against me if you want." Sounds
8th September, 26
Early Strength Gives Way to Steady Selling
Early Strength Gives Way to Steady Selling Bonds started the day in fairly good shape with a rally at the open and a certain measure of defiance of another jump in fuel prices. The defiance quickly gave way to underperformance--a fact that suggests short-term tradeflow considerations for the bond market or perhaps that we're simply putting the trading day under too much of a microscope. Either way, both yields and oil prices were higher by the end of the day although the 10yr avoided breaking above last week's highs. Market Movement Recap 08:30 AM Roughly unchanged after overnight volatility.
Early Strength Gives Way to Steady Selling
Early Strength Gives Way to Steady Selling Bonds started the day in fairly good shape with a rally at the open and a certain measure of defiance of another jump in fuel prices. The defiance quickly gave way to underperformance--a fact that suggests short-term tradeflow considerations for the bond market or perhaps that we're simply putting the trading day under too much of a microscope. Either way, both yields and oil prices were higher by the end of the day although the 10yr avoided breaking above last week's highs. Market Movement Recap 08:30 AM Roughly unchanged after overnight volatility.
8th September, 26
Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Start The Week
Top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates started the week right where they were on Friday for the average lender. At 6.89%, we're just a hair below the highest mark since June 2025. In general, rates have been increasing steadily since the Iran war ceasefire ended with the uptick frequently correlating with higher fuel prices. Today's "unchanged" rates require an asterisk. Although mortgage rates are based on bonds and although bonds move constantly throughout the day, mortgage lenders prefer to keep rate changes to a minimum--ideally once a day if the market remains calm enough. This means the bond
Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Start The Week
Top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates started the week right where they were on Friday for the average lender. At 6.89%, we're just a hair below the highest mark since June 2025. In general, rates have been increasing steadily since the Iran war ceasefire ended with the uptick frequently correlating with higher fuel prices. Today's "unchanged" rates require an asterisk. Although mortgage rates are based on bonds and although bonds move constantly throughout the day, mortgage lenders prefer to keep rate changes to a minimum--ideally once a day if the market remains calm enough. This means the bond
8th September, 26
CRA Sourcing, Correspondent, Internal Audit, AI Content Tools; Pulte, Credit Scores, and Social Media
Many years ago, it seemed like people bragged about how late they stayed up at conferences. Now they brag about how early they went sleep. Today I head to San Antonio, in the Great State of Texas, for a private mortgage event. We’ve plunged into the mortgage conference season, and there are dozens of them in the next month or two. I hope that some people are staying at their desks to work! The talk in the conference hallways? Consumer Direct channels, not sensing a higher volume environment, appear (through my email traffic and signing up for this Commentary via home email addresses) to be
CRA Sourcing, Correspondent, Internal Audit, AI Content Tools; Pulte, Credit Scores, and Social Media
Many years ago, it seemed like people bragged about how late they stayed up at conferences. Now they brag about how early they went sleep. Today I head to San Antonio, in the Great State of Texas, for a private mortgage event. We’ve plunged into the mortgage conference season, and there are dozens of them in the next month or two. I hope that some people are staying at their desks to work! The talk in the conference hallways? Consumer Direct channels, not sensing a higher volume environment, appear (through my email traffic and signing up for this Commentary via home email addresses) to be
8th September, 26
More Signs of Resilience But Still Tuned-In to Oil
To be sure, bonds are still very tuned-in to oil price movement with a high level of moment-to-moment correlation. That dynamic has seen yields trade both higher and lower so far today with most of the "lower" happening between 8:20 and 9:10am. Since then, both yields and oil are back on the rise. But the more interesting development is the slightly broader correlation which has seen bond yields holding under a 4.82% ceiling (10yr) even as oil prices made 3 new highs on 9/1, 9/3, and again this morning. There's likely a limit to this resilience in the event oil continues spiking, but it's
More Signs of Resilience But Still Tuned-In to Oil
To be sure, bonds are still very tuned-in to oil price movement with a high level of moment-to-moment correlation. That dynamic has seen yields trade both higher and lower so far today with most of the "lower" happening between 8:20 and 9:10am. Since then, both yields and oil are back on the rise. But the more interesting development is the slightly broader correlation which has seen bond yields holding under a 4.82% ceiling (10yr) even as oil prices made 3 new highs on 9/1, 9/3, and again this morning. There's likely a limit to this resilience in the event oil continues spiking, but it's
4th September, 26
Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data
Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data Today's market reaction to the big beat in NFP (162k vs 56k) certainly stretches the paradigm of most market watchers who've been in the game for more than a few years, but this has been the reality over the past year or two. Relatively rapid changes in labor force trends (and ongoing changes in seasonal distortions) have made the job count a less precise measurement of labor market health than it once was. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has been far more insulated from that volatility (and far less prone to big beats/misses compared to NFP).
Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data
Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data Today's market reaction to the big beat in NFP (162k vs 56k) certainly stretches the paradigm of most market watchers who've been in the game for more than a few years, but this has been the reality over the past year or two. Relatively rapid changes in labor force trends (and ongoing changes in seasonal distortions) have made the job count a less precise measurement of labor market health than it once was. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has been far more insulated from that volatility (and far less prone to big beats/misses compared to NFP).
4th September, 26
Mortgage Applications Rebound Modestly as ARM Share Hits Five-Week High
Mortgage application activity showed some signs of life last week, with a modest increase in purchase demand helping offset another decline in refinancing as mortgage rates reached their highest level in four weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 28. Purchase applications held down the fort, rising 2% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis. Activity was still 0.2% below the same week one year ago, but the relatively stable year-over-year comparison suggests
Mortgage Applications Rebound Modestly as ARM Share Hits Five-Week High
Mortgage application activity showed some signs of life last week, with a modest increase in purchase demand helping offset another decline in refinancing as mortgage rates reached their highest level in four weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 28. Purchase applications held down the fort, rising 2% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis. Activity was still 0.2% below the same week one year ago, but the relatively stable year-over-year comparison suggests
4th September, 26
Rates Only Slightly Higher Despite Strong Jobs Report
Mortgage rates have a long and storied past with the monthly jobs report. Officially titled "The Employment Situation," the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) jobs report has more power than any other monthly economic report to cause volatility in the rate market over the years. It may have lost some of that capability over the past few years, but it's always worthy of respect. With that in mind, it was an ominous sign for rates when this morning's jobs data came in MUCH stronger than expected. BLS counted 162k new jobs created compared to a median forecast of 56k. On many occasions in the past
Rates Only Slightly Higher Despite Strong Jobs Report
Mortgage rates have a long and storied past with the monthly jobs report. Officially titled "The Employment Situation," the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) jobs report has more power than any other monthly economic report to cause volatility in the rate market over the years. It may have lost some of that capability over the past few years, but it's always worthy of respect. With that in mind, it was an ominous sign for rates when this morning's jobs data came in MUCH stronger than expected. BLS counted 162k new jobs created compared to a median forecast of 56k. On many occasions in the past
4th September, 26
U/W, LOS/TPO, Workflow Automation, AI Risk, Education Tools; MBS and MSR Trends
Make sure that your air conditioning is in good condition, as well as clients’. Loan servicers are wondering about their collateral: “Heat in the oceans releases more slowly into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the following year. The powerful 2023-24 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, and we should not be surprised if this record is broken. El Nino is a natural part of the weather cycle, and is not caused by climate change.” Weather prediction can be dicey, especially months in advance, but predicting population trends that lenders and investors
U/W, LOS/TPO, Workflow Automation, AI Risk, Education Tools; MBS and MSR Trends
Make sure that your air conditioning is in good condition, as well as clients’. Loan servicers are wondering about their collateral: “Heat in the oceans releases more slowly into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the following year. The powerful 2023-24 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, and we should not be surprised if this record is broken. El Nino is a natural part of the weather cycle, and is not caused by climate change.” Weather prediction can be dicey, especially months in advance, but predicting population trends that lenders and investors