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11th May, 26
Over Before it Began
Over Before it Began Monday proved to be a boring trading day despite the moderately big sell-off. Yields actually didn't move much during the domestic session. In fact, they didn't move during the overnight session either. Because the day's market-moving news happened on Sunday before trading began, it was instantly priced in at the open, and the rest of the day was spent drifting sideways to slightly weaker. Bonds ultimately underperformed their prevailing correlation with oil prices. We're not reading anything into this--especially in light of the Treasury auction cycle possibly adding some
Over Before it Began
Over Before it Began Monday proved to be a boring trading day despite the moderately big sell-off. Yields actually didn't move much during the domestic session. In fact, they didn't move during the overnight session either. Because the day's market-moving news happened on Sunday before trading began, it was instantly priced in at the open, and the rest of the day was spent drifting sideways to slightly weaker. Bonds ultimately underperformed their prevailing correlation with oil prices. We're not reading anything into this--especially in light of the Treasury auction cycle possibly adding some
11th May, 26
Mortgage Rates Rising to Start New Week
Last week was decidedly stronger for mortgage rates as they either held steady or moved lower on 5 out of 5 days. All told, it was a 0.14% drop from the previous week in terms of the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate. The new week is starting out in opposite fashion with rates moving up 0.07% today alone. This follows news over the weekend that Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war. In general, the longer the war continues, the higher oil prices will remain. Oil price don't dictate rates, but there's currently a lot of correlation due to inflation implications. Oil
Mortgage Rates Rising to Start New Week
Last week was decidedly stronger for mortgage rates as they either held steady or moved lower on 5 out of 5 days. All told, it was a 0.14% drop from the previous week in terms of the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate. The new week is starting out in opposite fashion with rates moving up 0.07% today alone. This follows news over the weekend that Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war. In general, the longer the war continues, the higher oil prices will remain. Oil price don't dictate rates, but there's currently a lot of correlation due to inflation implications. Oil
11th May, 26
Weaker Start After Peace Deal Stalls
Bonds are starting the day moderately weaker. The reasons are straightforward. Chief among them, Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war, calling it "totally unacceptable." In response, Iran's foreign minister said it will never bow to foreign pressure. Adding fuel to the fire, Netanyahu said the war was not over and there was "more work to be done." When trading began late Sunday night, oil prices were roughly 5bps higher and 10yr yields rose 4bps to roughly 4.40%. Despite those losses, trading levels for both oil prices and bond yields remain lower than they were before
Weaker Start After Peace Deal Stalls
Bonds are starting the day moderately weaker. The reasons are straightforward. Chief among them, Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war, calling it "totally unacceptable." In response, Iran's foreign minister said it will never bow to foreign pressure. Adding fuel to the fire, Netanyahu said the war was not over and there was "more work to be done." When trading began late Sunday night, oil prices were roughly 5bps higher and 10yr yields rose 4bps to roughly 4.40%. Despite those losses, trading levels for both oil prices and bond yields remain lower than they were before
8th May, 26
Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back
Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to post a fairly calm trading day against the prevailing backdrop of generally higher volatility. Today was such a day. The most helpful catalyst was an absence of any major war-related headlines and associated oil price volatility. That said, it's a near certainty that war-related volatility will be back in the coming week. Econ Data / Events Average earnings mm (Apr) 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev Non Farm Payrolls (Apr) 115K vs 62K f'cast, 178K prev Participation Rate (Apr) 61.8% vs
Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back
Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to post a fairly calm trading day against the prevailing backdrop of generally higher volatility. Today was such a day. The most helpful catalyst was an absence of any major war-related headlines and associated oil price volatility. That said, it's a near certainty that war-related volatility will be back in the coming week. Econ Data / Events Average earnings mm (Apr) 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev Non Farm Payrolls (Apr) 115K vs 62K f'cast, 178K prev Participation Rate (Apr) 61.8% vs
8th May, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week Slightly Lower
It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the third highest since August 2025. But that ended up being the only day where rates went higher. Wednesday brough the biggest chunk of the recovery with MND's daily rate index dropping 0.10%. Tuesday and Friday (today) each added a 0.02% drop, taking the index to 6.42% after ending last week at 6.44%. War-related headlines were less of a factor today and volatility was unsurprisingly lighter as a result. This is an adjustment for seasoned
Mortgage Rates End Week Slightly Lower
It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the third highest since August 2025. But that ended up being the only day where rates went higher. Wednesday brough the biggest chunk of the recovery with MND's daily rate index dropping 0.10%. Tuesday and Friday (today) each added a 0.02% drop, taking the index to 6.42% after ending last week at 6.44%. War-related headlines were less of a factor today and volatility was unsurprisingly lighter as a result. This is an adjustment for seasoned
8th May, 26
Higher Rates Hit Mortgage Apps, But Only Modestly
Mortgage applications declined last week, reversing some of the prior period’s gains as rates climbed to their highest level in a month. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 4.4% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 1. The decline was broad-based, with both purchase and refinance activity moving lower. The Refinance Index fell 5% from the previous week but remained 29% higher than the same week one year ago. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4% week over week and was still 5% above last year’s level. In the bigger picture,
Higher Rates Hit Mortgage Apps, But Only Modestly
Mortgage applications declined last week, reversing some of the prior period’s gains as rates climbed to their highest level in a month. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 4.4% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 1. The decline was broad-based, with both purchase and refinance activity moving lower. The Refinance Index fell 5% from the previous week but remained 29% higher than the same week one year ago. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4% week over week and was still 5% above last year’s level. In the bigger picture,
8th May, 26
2-Month Glut of Data Brings New Home Sales Back to Center of The Range
New home sales moved higher in March and February. Both months were reported on a single day this week as the Census Bureau continues catching up from the government shutdown. After dropping to 587k in January, sales rose to 635k in February and 682k in March. This represents a solid bounce back into the center of the broadly sideways range that's been intact for the past 2 years. For-sale inventory edged slightly lower to 481,000 , down 0.4% from February and 4.6% below year-ago levels. At the current sales pace, months’ supply fell to 8.5 months , down from 9.1 months in
2-Month Glut of Data Brings New Home Sales Back to Center of The Range
New home sales moved higher in March and February. Both months were reported on a single day this week as the Census Bureau continues catching up from the government shutdown. After dropping to 587k in January, sales rose to 635k in February and 682k in March. This represents a solid bounce back into the center of the broadly sideways range that's been intact for the past 2 years. For-sale inventory edged slightly lower to 481,000 , down 0.4% from February and 4.6% below year-ago levels. At the current sales pace, months’ supply fell to 8.5 months , down from 9.1 months in
8th May, 26
BBYS, Anti-Fraud, Subservicing Products; Primer Hedging Information for MLOs; Cap. Markets Deep Dive
If you haven’t signed up for the Mortgage Action Alliance, do so. It’s free, has good advocacy information, and there’s strength in numbers. Recent conference chatter includes suggesting that removing politics from the mortgage conversation would be a good thing to attempt, wondering if there’s enough regulatory manpower muscle to take the existing LO comp rules and re-jigger them, some believing that the recent credit score announcements are lacking leave much to be desired, asking why the Fed’s useful Twitter account (Financial Sentiment Index, TFSI) vanished, and suggestions that
BBYS, Anti-Fraud, Subservicing Products; Primer Hedging Information for MLOs; Cap. Markets Deep Dive
If you haven’t signed up for the Mortgage Action Alliance, do so. It’s free, has good advocacy information, and there’s strength in numbers. Recent conference chatter includes suggesting that removing politics from the mortgage conversation would be a good thing to attempt, wondering if there’s enough regulatory manpower muscle to take the existing LO comp rules and re-jigger them, some believing that the recent credit score announcements are lacking leave much to be desired, asking why the Fed’s useful Twitter account (Financial Sentiment Index, TFSI) vanished, and suggestions that
8th May, 26
Forget What You Know About The Payroll Count
Everyone's been talking about the ongoing change in the significance of the payroll number in the jobs report. OK, not everyone, but economists and bond traders for sure. The issue is the rapid shift in the size of the labor force as well as recent volatility in the multiple jobholder category, among other things. Specifically, the labor force has been shrinking since November and was already growing at a slower rate before then. That means it takes a lower NFP number to keep unemployment flat. More importantly, it means that NFP is no longer the be all, end all economic indicator. For decades
Forget What You Know About The Payroll Count
Everyone's been talking about the ongoing change in the significance of the payroll number in the jobs report. OK, not everyone, but economists and bond traders for sure. The issue is the rapid shift in the size of the labor force as well as recent volatility in the multiple jobholder category, among other things. Specifically, the labor force has been shrinking since November and was already growing at a slower rate before then. That means it takes a lower NFP number to keep unemployment flat. More importantly, it means that NFP is no longer the be all, end all economic indicator. For decades
7th May, 26
Another Mid-Day Reversal. Does Jobs Report Even Matter?
Another Mid-Day Reversal Driven by Dueling Headlines The overnight session featured a modest but clearly-defined rally in response to hopeful headlines on the Iran war. But as early a 9am ET, a complete reversal was beginning to take shape. Bonds remained in positive territory until the 11am hour when war headlines kicked selling into higher gear. Specifically, reports suggested Iran rejected the U.S. framework that helped bonds overnight. Separate news cited CIA sources, claiming Iran can withstand a Hormuz blockade for months. Selling continued in the afternoon on reports that had more to do
Another Mid-Day Reversal. Does Jobs Report Even Matter?
Another Mid-Day Reversal Driven by Dueling Headlines The overnight session featured a modest but clearly-defined rally in response to hopeful headlines on the Iran war. But as early a 9am ET, a complete reversal was beginning to take shape. Bonds remained in positive territory until the 11am hour when war headlines kicked selling into higher gear. Specifically, reports suggested Iran rejected the U.S. framework that helped bonds overnight. Separate news cited CIA sources, claiming Iran can withstand a Hormuz blockade for months. Selling continued in the afternoon on reports that had more to do