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6th May, 26
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day The entirety of the domestic trading session was very flat compared to the ground covered during the overnight session. Pre-market headlines regarding a potential peace deal accounted for a 7bp drop in 10yr yields and 3/8th point improvement in MBS. 10s gained about 1 more bp by the close and MBS added another eighth of a point, bringing to total rally over half a point on the day as of 4pm ET. There were no other notable market movers by the time domestic trading hours began. The rally speaks to the likelihood that an official peace deal could
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day The entirety of the domestic trading session was very flat compared to the ground covered during the overnight session. Pre-market headlines regarding a potential peace deal accounted for a 7bp drop in 10yr yields and 3/8th point improvement in MBS. 10s gained about 1 more bp by the close and MBS added another eighth of a point, bringing to total rally over half a point on the day as of 4pm ET. There were no other notable market movers by the time domestic trading hours began. The rally speaks to the likelihood that an official peace deal could
6th May, 26
Mortgage Rates Make a More Serious Recovery
Mortgage rates spiked sharply on Monday, hitting the highest levels in more than a month as escalation fears ramped up surrounding the Iran war. Yesterday technically saw some recovery, but it may as well have been an "unchanged" day. Now today, we're seeing a more legitimate recovery with the average lender back down to last Friday's levels. The move follows a drop in oil prices inspired by progress toward a peace agreement. News came out overnight that The U.S. and Iran were close to signing a one-page memo outlining a more formal peace agreement. While full details would take time to hammer
Mortgage Rates Make a More Serious Recovery
Mortgage rates spiked sharply on Monday, hitting the highest levels in more than a month as escalation fears ramped up surrounding the Iran war. Yesterday technically saw some recovery, but it may as well have been an "unchanged" day. Now today, we're seeing a more legitimate recovery with the average lender back down to last Friday's levels. The move follows a drop in oil prices inspired by progress toward a peace agreement. News came out overnight that The U.S. and Iran were close to signing a one-page memo outlining a more formal peace agreement. While full details would take time to hammer
6th May, 26
TBA Settlement, Non-Agency, Due Diligence, AI, Warehouse Tools; How Old is Your House?
“What do you call an aging actor who has finally paid off his house? Mortgage freeman.” Servicing is a highly important component of that, and I was fortunate to attend Sagent Ignite in Phoenix yesterday; we have a special live podcast today that was recorded from the event. Mortgagees follow demographics, whether it be aging owners or aging houses. Lenders know that there are plenty of old homeowners who have plenty of equity. GreenPath Financial Wellness (a nonprofit approved by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development -HUD - and the National Foundation for Credit Counseling
TBA Settlement, Non-Agency, Due Diligence, AI, Warehouse Tools; How Old is Your House?
“What do you call an aging actor who has finally paid off his house? Mortgage freeman.” Servicing is a highly important component of that, and I was fortunate to attend Sagent Ignite in Phoenix yesterday; we have a special live podcast today that was recorded from the event. Mortgagees follow demographics, whether it be aging owners or aging houses. Lenders know that there are plenty of old homeowners who have plenty of equity. GreenPath Financial Wellness (a nonprofit approved by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development -HUD - and the National Foundation for Credit Counseling
6th May, 26
Big Overnight Recovery on Peace Deal Reports
There was one, big, obvious market mover overnight. At 4:50am ET, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are close to signing a one page memo of understanding to end the war. Oil and bond yields were already in recovery mode, but this kicked things into higher gear. Most of the gains remain even after both sides offered refutations (which the market now perceives as merely a negotiation tactic). Subsequent reports from other sources also speak to specific details in the peace deal that seem to specific to be made up. In early trading, ADP employment data had no impact and Treasury's
Big Overnight Recovery on Peace Deal Reports
There was one, big, obvious market mover overnight. At 4:50am ET, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are close to signing a one page memo of understanding to end the war. Oil and bond yields were already in recovery mode, but this kicked things into higher gear. Most of the gains remain even after both sides offered refutations (which the market now perceives as merely a negotiation tactic). Subsequent reports from other sources also speak to specific details in the peace deal that seem to specific to be made up. In early trading, ADP employment data had no impact and Treasury's
5th May, 26
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery Today's headline is somewhat misleading. It points out the fact that oil prices made it back to yesterday's lows whereas bond yields didn't even come close. This is all true, assuming we're looking at front month oil prices. But if we use a longer-term futures contract for oil, the correlation with bonds was actually closer to 1:1. Either way, the bond rally only unwound a fraction of yesterday's losses and that's especially true for MBS (5.0 coupons lost half a point yesterday, but regained less than a quarter point today).
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery Today's headline is somewhat misleading. It points out the fact that oil prices made it back to yesterday's lows whereas bond yields didn't even come close. This is all true, assuming we're looking at front month oil prices. But if we use a longer-term futures contract for oil, the correlation with bonds was actually closer to 1:1. Either way, the bond rally only unwound a fraction of yesterday's losses and that's especially true for MBS (5.0 coupons lost half a point yesterday, but regained less than a quarter point today).
5th May, 26
Mortgage Rates Edge Just Barely Lower
One popular refrain in the mortgage industry is that rates take the escalator on the way up and the stairs on the way down. Yesterday was definitely an "escalator" sort of day with the average lender moving up 0.12% for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate. Based on improvement in the bond market, rates are lower today, but just barely. It's not so much that rates are taking the stairs down, but more like they're a small child, waiting at the top of the staircase--afraid to take that first step. Some lenders are not even lower compared to yesterday's levels. Others are only modestly better. The absence
Mortgage Rates Edge Just Barely Lower
One popular refrain in the mortgage industry is that rates take the escalator on the way up and the stairs on the way down. Yesterday was definitely an "escalator" sort of day with the average lender moving up 0.12% for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate. Based on improvement in the bond market, rates are lower today, but just barely. It's not so much that rates are taking the stairs down, but more like they're a small child, waiting at the top of the staircase--afraid to take that first step. Some lenders are not even lower compared to yesterday's levels. Others are only modestly better. The absence
5th May, 26
Ginnie Guide, Borrower Marketing, e-Note Products; AI Webcast; Advocacy Week Approaching
Broker and Correspondent Products NFTYDoor, an end-to-end digital HELOC platform, is now operating as a fully independent company, enabling direct partnerships with wholesale brokers and private label correspondents. Brokers are already active on the new structure, submitting applications and closing loans today with no waiting period supported by NFTYDoor's combination of AI-powered origination and real people on every loan. Key enhancements include minimum FICO reduced from 640 to 600, maximum CLTV increased from 80 to 90 percent, maximum loan amount increased from $500,000 to $750,000,
Ginnie Guide, Borrower Marketing, e-Note Products; AI Webcast; Advocacy Week Approaching
Broker and Correspondent Products NFTYDoor, an end-to-end digital HELOC platform, is now operating as a fully independent company, enabling direct partnerships with wholesale brokers and private label correspondents. Brokers are already active on the new structure, submitting applications and closing loans today with no waiting period supported by NFTYDoor's combination of AI-powered origination and real people on every loan. Key enhancements include minimum FICO reduced from 640 to 600, maximum CLTV increased from 80 to 90 percent, maximum loan amount increased from $500,000 to $750,000,
5th May, 26
Modest Recovery Ahead of Econ Data
After hitting the highest yields in more than a month yesterday, bonds have managed to pick up a few bps. The bulk of the recovery was already in place by yesterday's close, but yields dropped another 2bps after war-related headlines just after 8am (US general said Iran's attacks yesterday were below the threshold for war). Oil prices and bond yields continue the same old correlation. Coming up at 10am ET, we'll get 2 economic reports that have historically been capable market movers: Job Openings and ISM Services. We've seen some evidence that the market is still willing to react to
Modest Recovery Ahead of Econ Data
After hitting the highest yields in more than a month yesterday, bonds have managed to pick up a few bps. The bulk of the recovery was already in place by yesterday's close, but yields dropped another 2bps after war-related headlines just after 8am (US general said Iran's attacks yesterday were below the threshold for war). Oil prices and bond yields continue the same old correlation. Coming up at 10am ET, we'll get 2 economic reports that have historically been capable market movers: Job Openings and ISM Services. We've seen some evidence that the market is still willing to react to
4th May, 26
Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines
Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines Monday's trading session ended up being as simple as it was unpleasant. Bonds lost ground somewhat sharply as war-related headlines kept adding up to additional escalation. Highlights include overnight reports of Iran hitting a U.S. warship with missiles, multiple reports of UAE air defenses being activated, and damage/fire at a UAE oil export terminal. While bonds had a few moments of independence, they were broadly driven by rising oil prices associated with the aforementioned headlines. Econ Data / Events ISM Manufacturing Employment (Apr) 46.4 vs
Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines
Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines Monday's trading session ended up being as simple as it was unpleasant. Bonds lost ground somewhat sharply as war-related headlines kept adding up to additional escalation. Highlights include overnight reports of Iran hitting a U.S. warship with missiles, multiple reports of UAE air defenses being activated, and damage/fire at a UAE oil export terminal. While bonds had a few moments of independence, they were broadly driven by rising oil prices associated with the aforementioned headlines. Econ Data / Events ISM Manufacturing Employment (Apr) 46.4 vs
4th May, 26
Highest Rates in More Than a Month
Top-tier 30-year fixed rates are back above 6.5% today for the first time in more than a month for the average lender. Many lenders raised rates during the course of the day as well. Those who didn't will likely have to raise rates tomorrow unless the underlying bond market makes a significant recovery overnight. Rates are driven by bonds and bonds are starting the week at higher yields in response to war-related developments. In general, escalation in the Iran war pushes bond yields higher by implying higher inflation via higher oil prices. Additionally, funding the war implies the need
Highest Rates in More Than a Month
Top-tier 30-year fixed rates are back above 6.5% today for the first time in more than a month for the average lender. Many lenders raised rates during the course of the day as well. Those who didn't will likely have to raise rates tomorrow unless the underlying bond market makes a significant recovery overnight. Rates are driven by bonds and bonds are starting the week at higher yields in response to war-related developments. In general, escalation in the Iran war pushes bond yields higher by implying higher inflation via higher oil prices. Additionally, funding the war implies the need