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28th April, 25
No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate
No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate Bonds were slightly weaker overnight but quickly moved into stronger territory as volume and liquidity ramped up for the new week. Gains were modest and linear--largely extending the friendly trends seen last Thu/Fri. The only key calendar event was the Treasury refunding estimates this afternoon. While there are some potentially alarming ways to read the newswires (i.e. "June borrowing estimates up to $514b vs $123b previously"), the large apparent change is due to accounting and not reflective of a $391 bln increase in spending or decrease in
No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate
No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate Bonds were slightly weaker overnight but quickly moved into stronger territory as volume and liquidity ramped up for the new week. Gains were modest and linear--largely extending the friendly trends seen last Thu/Fri. The only key calendar event was the Treasury refunding estimates this afternoon. While there are some potentially alarming ways to read the newswires (i.e. "June borrowing estimates up to $514b vs $123b previously"), the large apparent change is due to accounting and not reflective of a $391 bln increase in spending or decrease in
28th April, 25
Mortgage Rates Start New Week Slightly Lower
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest levels since April 7th. The average lender remained at those same levels at the start of business today, but many lenders offered modest improvements as the day progressed. Mortgage lenders prefer to update rates only once per day, but they will make mid-day adjustments if the underlying bond market moves enough. Fortunately, today's adjustments were toward slightly lower levels. That said, the changes were small enough that the average borrower may not notice any difference versus Friday's rate quotes. As the week continues, there will
Mortgage Rates Start New Week Slightly Lower
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest levels since April 7th. The average lender remained at those same levels at the start of business today, but many lenders offered modest improvements as the day progressed. Mortgage lenders prefer to update rates only once per day, but they will make mid-day adjustments if the underlying bond market moves enough. Fortunately, today's adjustments were toward slightly lower levels. That said, the changes were small enough that the average borrower may not notice any difference versus Friday's rate quotes. As the week continues, there will
28th April, 25
Bonds Starting New Week at Last Week's Best Levels
When getting a sense of what's happening in the bond market, it's frequently safe to ignore the last 2 hours of trading on Friday and the first 2 on Monday. When that logic is applied today, we found this morning's 10am yields precisely in line with Friday's 3pm levels and MBS doing just a bit better. There was just a bit of additional improvement after the Dallas Fed Survey. This is the only day of the week without any major data or calendar event in the morning hours. Broader market focus remains on equities and earnings season, but Treasuries get quarterly refunding estimates at
Bonds Starting New Week at Last Week's Best Levels
When getting a sense of what's happening in the bond market, it's frequently safe to ignore the last 2 hours of trading on Friday and the first 2 on Monday. When that logic is applied today, we found this morning's 10am yields precisely in line with Friday's 3pm levels and MBS doing just a bit better. There was just a bit of additional improvement after the Dallas Fed Survey. This is the only day of the week without any major data or calendar event in the morning hours. Broader market focus remains on equities and earnings season, but Treasuries get quarterly refunding estimates at
25th April, 25
Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day
Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day After being heavily conditioned to expect elevated volatility with unpredictable timing, the past two trading sessions have been tremendous departures from the norm. Both days featured linear, reasonably big improvements without any singular flashpoints that deserve any more credit than a general sense of cooler heads prevailing on the policy-making front. Indeed, when the week ends with Trump saying "we will be reasonable on tariffs" as opposed to doubling down on triple digit brinksmanship, something has certainly changed and both sides of
Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day
Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day After being heavily conditioned to expect elevated volatility with unpredictable timing, the past two trading sessions have been tremendous departures from the norm. Both days featured linear, reasonably big improvements without any singular flashpoints that deserve any more credit than a general sense of cooler heads prevailing on the policy-making front. Indeed, when the week ends with Trump saying "we will be reasonable on tariffs" as opposed to doubling down on triple digit brinksmanship, something has certainly changed and both sides of
25th April, 25
Lowest Mortgage Rates in Nearly 3 Weeks
The news on mortgage rates has been frustratingly mixed recently, depending on the source. This is a factor of the various time frames and methodologies employed by different purveyors of rate data. If you're reading this, however, none of that matters because the following is as timely as it gets: the average mortgage lender is now at the lowest level since April 7th. Improvements versus yesterday vary depending on the lender. Some of them made friendly adjustments yesterday afternoon in response to stronger trading in the bond market. Others waited to make those adjustments until this
Lowest Mortgage Rates in Nearly 3 Weeks
The news on mortgage rates has been frustratingly mixed recently, depending on the source. This is a factor of the various time frames and methodologies employed by different purveyors of rate data. If you're reading this, however, none of that matters because the following is as timely as it gets: the average mortgage lender is now at the lowest level since April 7th. Improvements versus yesterday vary depending on the lender. Some of them made friendly adjustments yesterday afternoon in response to stronger trading in the bond market. Others waited to make those adjustments until this
25th April, 25
Existing Home Sales at 5 Month Lows
As is the case for the monthly data on New Home Sales from the Census Bureau, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Existing Home Sales report does not make for exciting news these days. It's not that the news is tragic or alarming either. It just sort of... is. Whereas New Home Sales have been able to hold sideways near their pre-covid highs, Existing Sales continue to languish near the lowest levels in decades. Apart from the great financial crisis in 2008-2010, you'd have to go back to 1995 to see lower levels. "Home buying and selling remained sluggish in March due to the
Existing Home Sales at 5 Month Lows
As is the case for the monthly data on New Home Sales from the Census Bureau, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Existing Home Sales report does not make for exciting news these days. It's not that the news is tragic or alarming either. It just sort of... is. Whereas New Home Sales have been able to hold sideways near their pre-covid highs, Existing Sales continue to languish near the lowest levels in decades. Apart from the great financial crisis in 2008-2010, you'd have to go back to 1995 to see lower levels. "Home buying and selling remained sluggish in March due to the
25th April, 25
New Home Sales Running Near Highest Pace Since 2022
The Census Bureau released March New Home Sales data this week, and it was near the best levels seen since early 2022. Before you get too excited about that, a caveat is in order. Simply put, when it comes to housing market data, nothing has been more uneventful than new home sales over the past few years. The chart tells the story. It's tough to make an entire news article interesting when it comes to this data, so we won't waste your time. Instead, here are some bullet-pointed highlights that showcase some of the departures from the status quo (these are common
New Home Sales Running Near Highest Pace Since 2022
The Census Bureau released March New Home Sales data this week, and it was near the best levels seen since early 2022. Before you get too excited about that, a caveat is in order. Simply put, when it comes to housing market data, nothing has been more uneventful than new home sales over the past few years. The chart tells the story. It's tough to make an entire news article interesting when it comes to this data, so we won't waste your time. Instead, here are some bullet-pointed highlights that showcase some of the departures from the status quo (these are common
25th April, 25
Maryland Changes Licensing; Upcoming Conferences; Perspective on the CFPB; Title and Flood Products
What if your client called the CFPB about a servicing issue, or any issue, and no one answered? Things are changing, but for a thorough write up on the current situation, check out Debra Gaveglio & Donna Schmidt’s “Harmonizing Regulatory Compliance and Industry Perspectives: Leveraging Consumer Protection and Mortgage Servicing Loss Mitigation.” At its peak, the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau had about 1,700 staff. Talk in recent months of a reduction in force of 1,500 takes the number down to about 200, with authorities saying the focus of those 200 will be on “actual harm
Maryland Changes Licensing; Upcoming Conferences; Perspective on the CFPB; Title and Flood Products
What if your client called the CFPB about a servicing issue, or any issue, and no one answered? Things are changing, but for a thorough write up on the current situation, check out Debra Gaveglio & Donna Schmidt’s “Harmonizing Regulatory Compliance and Industry Perspectives: Leveraging Consumer Protection and Mortgage Servicing Loss Mitigation.” At its peak, the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau had about 1,700 staff. Talk in recent months of a reduction in force of 1,500 takes the number down to about 200, with authorities saying the focus of those 200 will be on “actual harm
25th April, 25
Data Free Friday. Heavy Data Next Week
Today's only scheduled economic report is Consumer Sentiment. Nonetheless, we would classify today as being "data free" because this is simply the final reading of the preliminary release 2 weeks ago. It's the preliminary release that tends to move markets. Case in point, there was no reaction to this morning's installment, nor would we have expected there to be. Next week is a different story. Multiple calendar events are capable of having an impact. Most strikingly, at least one of these events is tap on every single day (usually there's at least one day that offers a break in the
Data Free Friday. Heavy Data Next Week
Today's only scheduled economic report is Consumer Sentiment. Nonetheless, we would classify today as being "data free" because this is simply the final reading of the preliminary release 2 weeks ago. It's the preliminary release that tends to move markets. Case in point, there was no reaction to this morning's installment, nor would we have expected there to be. Next week is a different story. Multiple calendar events are capable of having an impact. Most strikingly, at least one of these events is tap on every single day (usually there's at least one day that offers a break in the
