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7th February, 25

Minimal Selling Leaves Focus on CPI
Minimal Selling Leaves Focus on CPI The first order of business this morning was to reconcile the weaker NFP reading with the seemingly illogical bond market sell-off. That was easy enough to do by the time we considered the solid drop in unemployment along with the big revisions to the past 2 months of payrolls. It was all the more palatable due to the modest size of the sell-off (especially modest as far as jobs report days are concerned). Thanks to the rally earlier in the week, bonds are still set to end the week at slightly stronger levels. Bottom line, volatility is minimal.
Minimal Selling Leaves Focus on CPI
Minimal Selling Leaves Focus on CPI The first order of business this morning was to reconcile the weaker NFP reading with the seemingly illogical bond market sell-off. That was easy enough to do by the time we considered the solid drop in unemployment along with the big revisions to the past 2 months of payrolls. It was all the more palatable due to the modest size of the sell-off (especially modest as far as jobs report days are concerned). Thanks to the rally earlier in the week, bonds are still set to end the week at slightly stronger levels. Bottom line, volatility is minimal.
7th February, 25

Mortgage Rates End Week Lower Despite Friday's Modest Bounce
Friday brought the release of the big jobs report which is historically more likely than any other monthly economic report to cause the biggest pops or drops. Today's installment can be filed under the "pop" category, but it was so quiet, you might not even hear it. In fact, the drop in rates seen earlier in the week ended up being slightly bigger. It resulted in a 0.06% move lower in the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate while today's jobs report only caused a 0.03% move in the other direction. The net effect is an average 30yr fixed rate that remains just barely over 7%.
Mortgage Rates End Week Lower Despite Friday's Modest Bounce
Friday brought the release of the big jobs report which is historically more likely than any other monthly economic report to cause the biggest pops or drops. Today's installment can be filed under the "pop" category, but it was so quiet, you might not even hear it. In fact, the drop in rates seen earlier in the week ended up being slightly bigger. It resulted in a 0.06% move lower in the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate while today's jobs report only caused a 0.03% move in the other direction. The net effect is an average 30yr fixed rate that remains just barely over 7%.
7th February, 25

Compliance, Non-Del Products; Lender's Growth in '25; Chatbot Perspective; MBA's Marcia Davies Interview
“The San Diego Padres visited an orphanage in Mexico. ‘It's really sad to see their faces with no hope,’ said Juan, age 9.” In other San Diego news, Optimal Blue wrapped up its Industry Summit this week. As with many events, the talk in the hallways was nearly as important as the actual sessions. The California fires were a topic, and this month’s piece in STRATMOR is titled, “Natural Disasters and Economic Resilience.” There were certainly conversations about data protection, state licensing flexibility and remote work, and remote online notarization. OB launched many new
Compliance, Non-Del Products; Lender's Growth in '25; Chatbot Perspective; MBA's Marcia Davies Interview
“The San Diego Padres visited an orphanage in Mexico. ‘It's really sad to see their faces with no hope,’ said Juan, age 9.” In other San Diego news, Optimal Blue wrapped up its Industry Summit this week. As with many events, the talk in the hallways was nearly as important as the actual sessions. The California fires were a topic, and this month’s piece in STRATMOR is titled, “Natural Disasters and Economic Resilience.” There were certainly conversations about data protection, state licensing flexibility and remote work, and remote online notarization. OB launched many new
7th February, 25

Why Are Bonds Not Liking The 143k vs 170k NFP?
As always, the jobs report matters. Today, we're seeing an obvious reaction to a fairly minimal miss (143k vs 170k f'cast in the headline job count). If that was the only data point in the report, bonds would likely be rallying. But after considering the other data, traders have been more inclined to sell. A full and detailed assessment of this other data would be both mind-numbing and voluminous. Here it is in a nutshell. Revisions to the past two months more than offset this month's miss. Note the 3 month moving average of payrolls moving higher: Bigger picture annual revisions took
Why Are Bonds Not Liking The 143k vs 170k NFP?
As always, the jobs report matters. Today, we're seeing an obvious reaction to a fairly minimal miss (143k vs 170k f'cast in the headline job count). If that was the only data point in the report, bonds would likely be rallying. But after considering the other data, traders have been more inclined to sell. A full and detailed assessment of this other data would be both mind-numbing and voluminous. Here it is in a nutshell. Revisions to the past two months more than offset this month's miss. Note the 3 month moving average of payrolls moving higher: Bigger picture annual revisions took
6th February, 25

Mortgage Rates Mostly Maintain Wednesday's Strength
Yesterday was notable for being the first day in more than a week to offer any excitement for rates. More notably, that excitement was the good kind. The average lender moved back under 7.00% for top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates for the first time since December 17th, even if only by a scant 0.01%. Today's rates are effectively right in line with that, but officially 0.01% higher, and not for any interesting reasons. The only major economic data consisted of weekly Jobless Claims--not to be confused with tomorrow's immensely more important jobs report--
Mortgage Rates Mostly Maintain Wednesday's Strength
Yesterday was notable for being the first day in more than a week to offer any excitement for rates. More notably, that excitement was the good kind. The average lender moved back under 7.00% for top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates for the first time since December 17th, even if only by a scant 0.01%. Today's rates are effectively right in line with that, but officially 0.01% higher, and not for any interesting reasons. The only major economic data consisted of weekly Jobless Claims--not to be confused with tomorrow's immensely more important jobs report--
6th February, 25

MSR, Servicing, Customer Retention, Equity Tools; Non-Agency News
“Nothing says, ‘I mean business’ than using a shopping cart at the liquor store.” We’re already 10 percent through with 2025, and residential lenders and vendors don’t know whether “meaning business” is spending their time watching Washington DC or trying to help their borrowers. Or both. Trump fired CFPB head Rohit Chopra and appointed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as Interim Head. Certainly there is this school of thought: Consumer 'watchdog' hounded US businesses, let's shut it down. Bessent's first action was to suspend everything the CFPB is doing. The agency suspended
MSR, Servicing, Customer Retention, Equity Tools; Non-Agency News
“Nothing says, ‘I mean business’ than using a shopping cart at the liquor store.” We’re already 10 percent through with 2025, and residential lenders and vendors don’t know whether “meaning business” is spending their time watching Washington DC or trying to help their borrowers. Or both. Trump fired CFPB head Rohit Chopra and appointed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as Interim Head. Certainly there is this school of thought: Consumer 'watchdog' hounded US businesses, let's shut it down. Bessent's first action was to suspend everything the CFPB is doing. The agency suspended
6th February, 25

Consolidation Ahead of Jobs Report (Which Still Matters)
Coming off yesterday's solid rally, the bond market underwent a modest correction in the overnight session. Most of the gains remain intact, but the bounce makes a case for a short term yield floor at 4.415--a level that saw multiple bounces yesterday and another one just this morning after the jobless claims data. With no other big ticket data on tap, it wouldn't be a surprise for bonds to opt for "consolidation" ahead of tomorrow's big jobs report. On that note, keep in mind that despite the recent shift in focus in favor of inflation data, that the jobs report still
Consolidation Ahead of Jobs Report (Which Still Matters)
Coming off yesterday's solid rally, the bond market underwent a modest correction in the overnight session. Most of the gains remain intact, but the bounce makes a case for a short term yield floor at 4.415--a level that saw multiple bounces yesterday and another one just this morning after the jobless claims data. With no other big ticket data on tap, it wouldn't be a surprise for bonds to opt for "consolidation" ahead of tomorrow's big jobs report. On that note, keep in mind that despite the recent shift in focus in favor of inflation data, that the jobs report still
5th February, 25

Nice Win For Bonds With Help From Data
Nice Win For Bonds With Help From Data There are plenty of moving pieces at the moment when it comes to assigning credit for various ups and downs in the bond market on any given day. Many of those can only be guessed at--or at the very least, debated--due to the uncertain eventual impact from economic policies that have yet to be fully understood or implemented. For example, some would say that bonds benefited from yesterday's news that Trump intends to take over Gaza, but others would say it was a non-event. One thing all bond watchers can agree on is that pedigree reports
Nice Win For Bonds With Help From Data
Nice Win For Bonds With Help From Data There are plenty of moving pieces at the moment when it comes to assigning credit for various ups and downs in the bond market on any given day. Many of those can only be guessed at--or at the very least, debated--due to the uncertain eventual impact from economic policies that have yet to be fully understood or implemented. For example, some would say that bonds benefited from yesterday's news that Trump intends to take over Gaza, but others would say it was a non-event. One thing all bond watchers can agree on is that pedigree reports
5th February, 25

Refinance Applications Tick Back Up as Rates Play Ball
There are two main styles of measurement when it comes to keeping track of mortgage rates: daily and weekly. Sometimes, the differences in methodologies mean that two reputable sources can convey seemingly incongruent conclusions. Other times, both the granular and general data agree. This is one of those times. Whether we're looking at MND's daily averages or MBA's weekly survey, mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in 6 weeks by the end of last week. The drop wasn't immense, but based on today's release of MBA application data, it was enough for a small bump in
Refinance Applications Tick Back Up as Rates Play Ball
There are two main styles of measurement when it comes to keeping track of mortgage rates: daily and weekly. Sometimes, the differences in methodologies mean that two reputable sources can convey seemingly incongruent conclusions. Other times, both the granular and general data agree. This is one of those times. Whether we're looking at MND's daily averages or MBA's weekly survey, mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in 6 weeks by the end of last week. The drop wasn't immense, but based on today's release of MBA application data, it was enough for a small bump in
5th February, 25

Mortgage Rates Finally Make a Move (Lower)
The recent absence of volatility in day-to-day mortgage rate movement has been an easy target for light-hearted indignation among market watchers. But to be fair, if rates had been moving swiftly higher/lower/both, most market watchers would wish for some sideways stability. In fact, for most prospective borrowers as well as mortgage professionals, the only thing better than sideways stability is a healthy drop to lower levels. Now, after a week of utter flatness, we finally have such a drop. Rates are determined by trading levels in the bond market and bonds can be influenced by
Mortgage Rates Finally Make a Move (Lower)
The recent absence of volatility in day-to-day mortgage rate movement has been an easy target for light-hearted indignation among market watchers. But to be fair, if rates had been moving swiftly higher/lower/both, most market watchers would wish for some sideways stability. In fact, for most prospective borrowers as well as mortgage professionals, the only thing better than sideways stability is a healthy drop to lower levels. Now, after a week of utter flatness, we finally have such a drop. Rates are determined by trading levels in the bond market and bonds can be influenced by