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31st October, 25
Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers
Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers Although there was some mid-day volatility (early buying followed by slower selling back to roughly unchanged territory), that movement was more in line with month-end tradeflows than any interesting, specific motivations. Nonetheless, there were interesting, specific developments in the form of several comments from several Fed speakers. Rather than display a balanced mix of differing viewpoints, today's crop of comments was distinctly hawkish across the board. Logan said she would have preferred to hold rates steady this week and can't see
Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers
Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers Although there was some mid-day volatility (early buying followed by slower selling back to roughly unchanged territory), that movement was more in line with month-end tradeflows than any interesting, specific motivations. Nonetheless, there were interesting, specific developments in the form of several comments from several Fed speakers. Rather than display a balanced mix of differing viewpoints, today's crop of comments was distinctly hawkish across the board. Logan said she would have preferred to hold rates steady this week and can't see
31st October, 25
Mortgage Rates Recover Some of This Week's Lost Ground
After hitting the highest level in several weeks on Thursday, mortgage rates managed to move moderately lower on Friday. Counterpoint: Friday's rates are still the 2nd highest of the past 2 weeks and still meaningfully higher than last Friday's (6.28% vs 6.19% in terms of MND's rate index). The improvement makes it clear that lenders were setting rates defensively on Thursday. We know this because the level of improvement in rates is greater than that suggested by the underlying bond market. In other words, Thursday's rates had a bit of a cushion and lenders removed that cushion on Friday.
Mortgage Rates Recover Some of This Week's Lost Ground
After hitting the highest level in several weeks on Thursday, mortgage rates managed to move moderately lower on Friday. Counterpoint: Friday's rates are still the 2nd highest of the past 2 weeks and still meaningfully higher than last Friday's (6.28% vs 6.19% in terms of MND's rate index). The improvement makes it clear that lenders were setting rates defensively on Thursday. We know this because the level of improvement in rates is greater than that suggested by the underlying bond market. In other words, Thursday's rates had a bit of a cushion and lenders removed that cushion on Friday.
31st October, 25
Home Price Appreciation Keeps Cooling; New Loan Limits Coming Into Focus
Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices released new home-price data this week covering the month of August. The message is unchanged: prices remain higher than a year ago, but the pace of appreciation continues to slow. Case-Shiller’s national annual gain eased to 1.5%, the smallest in more than 2 years, while FHFA is near its lowest annual pace since 2012. Caveat: “lowest in x years” refers to growth rate, not price levels. Index levels remain near all-time highs with only modest recent slippage—nothing like 2008–09. The following chart represents the year over
Home Price Appreciation Keeps Cooling; New Loan Limits Coming Into Focus
Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices released new home-price data this week covering the month of August. The message is unchanged: prices remain higher than a year ago, but the pace of appreciation continues to slow. Case-Shiller’s national annual gain eased to 1.5%, the smallest in more than 2 years, while FHFA is near its lowest annual pace since 2012. Caveat: “lowest in x years” refers to growth rate, not price levels. Index levels remain near all-time highs with only modest recent slippage—nothing like 2008–09. The following chart represents the year over
31st October, 25
Mortgage Applications Responded to Lower Rates, But Things Are Already Changing
Mortgage applications jumped sharply last week, driven by lower rates and a rebound in refinance activity. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 24, total volume rose 7.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 7% unadjusted. The Refinance Index increased 9% from the previous week and is now 111% higher than the same week one year ago. Refi demand remains the primary engine of growth, with larger-balance borrowers especially responsive to rate drops. It bears repeating that things look different in context. Specifically, while refi demand looks great
Mortgage Applications Responded to Lower Rates, But Things Are Already Changing
Mortgage applications jumped sharply last week, driven by lower rates and a rebound in refinance activity. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 24, total volume rose 7.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 7% unadjusted. The Refinance Index increased 9% from the previous week and is now 111% higher than the same week one year ago. Refi demand remains the primary engine of growth, with larger-balance borrowers especially responsive to rate drops. It bears repeating that things look different in context. Specifically, while refi demand looks great
31st October, 25
Servicing Strategy, HELOC, Tax Tools; Interview on Rate Movement; "Subject To"...Assumable GSE Loans?
Change is constant. Soon I head to Austin, in the Great State of Texas, for the TMBA’s star-studded Housing Summit where “change” will certainly be studied. JPMorgan is embracing block chain. Tired of your cleaning supplies smelling like lemon? How about pumpkin, or birthday cake? “Rob, are you hearing from other brokers or LOs that their borrowers are demanding lower rates on their ‘lock’ since the Fed changed?” I am, and it is a great opportunity to be a knowledgeable human (instead of a robot) and explain why it isn’t the case: that overnight rates are not the same as 30-
Servicing Strategy, HELOC, Tax Tools; Interview on Rate Movement; "Subject To"...Assumable GSE Loans?
Change is constant. Soon I head to Austin, in the Great State of Texas, for the TMBA’s star-studded Housing Summit where “change” will certainly be studied. JPMorgan is embracing block chain. Tired of your cleaning supplies smelling like lemon? How about pumpkin, or birthday cake? “Rob, are you hearing from other brokers or LOs that their borrowers are demanding lower rates on their ‘lock’ since the Fed changed?” I am, and it is a great opportunity to be a knowledgeable human (instead of a robot) and explain why it isn’t the case: that overnight rates are not the same as 30-
31st October, 25
Some Early Month-End Buying
With the shutdown ongoing, and the big ticket econ data vanished into the void, there's little for the bond market to do apart from get its books in order for month-end. If you're curious about some of the month-end trading considerations that can impact bonds, we have a primer. Month-end can involve either buying or selling (or both). Timing can vary, but the more visible impacts tend to show up between 8-10am and/or around the 3pm CME close or 4pm NYSE close. So far today, this morning's strength has some month-end flavor with apparent asset-allocation trading (bond yields
Some Early Month-End Buying
With the shutdown ongoing, and the big ticket econ data vanished into the void, there's little for the bond market to do apart from get its books in order for month-end. If you're curious about some of the month-end trading considerations that can impact bonds, we have a primer. Month-end can involve either buying or selling (or both). Timing can vary, but the more visible impacts tend to show up between 8-10am and/or around the 3pm CME close or 4pm NYSE close. So far today, this morning's strength has some month-end flavor with apparent asset-allocation trading (bond yields
30th October, 25
Uneventfully Flat After Initial Weakness
Uneventfully Flat After Initial Weakness The bond market only had a little more selling to do thanks to the unpleasant tailwind from Wednesday afternoon's Fed press conference. That said, one could also argue that corporate bond issuance was the source of early weakness. Either way, yields are now back where they would have been in lieu of the Oct 10th tariff announcement and the Oct 16th regional bank drama (the two biggest recent events that pushed them lower). Fed rate expectations for the December meeting are worse off--nearly back to levels seen BEFORE the jobs report that
Uneventfully Flat After Initial Weakness
Uneventfully Flat After Initial Weakness The bond market only had a little more selling to do thanks to the unpleasant tailwind from Wednesday afternoon's Fed press conference. That said, one could also argue that corporate bond issuance was the source of early weakness. Either way, yields are now back where they would have been in lieu of the Oct 10th tariff announcement and the Oct 16th regional bank drama (the two biggest recent events that pushed them lower). Fed rate expectations for the December meeting are worse off--nearly back to levels seen BEFORE the jobs report that
30th October, 25
Mortgage Rates Are Anything But Lower This Week
Every now and then, a Thursday comes along where we have to set the record straight on what is actually going on with mortgage rates. That's because Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate survey on Thursdays and its methodology can cause confusion in the mortgage market. This particular Thursday is an especially treacherous minefield of misinformation due to the juxtaposition with yesterday's Fed rate cut. There are already too many people out there repeating the faulty notion that the Fed rate cut means lower mortgage rates. Adding fuel to that fire are various headlines
Mortgage Rates Are Anything But Lower This Week
Every now and then, a Thursday comes along where we have to set the record straight on what is actually going on with mortgage rates. That's because Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate survey on Thursdays and its methodology can cause confusion in the mortgage market. This particular Thursday is an especially treacherous minefield of misinformation due to the juxtaposition with yesterday's Fed rate cut. There are already too many people out there repeating the faulty notion that the Fed rate cut means lower mortgage rates. Adding fuel to that fire are various headlines
30th October, 25
Non-QM Hedging, Best-Ex, Compliance Tools; Webinars and Training; Freddie and Redwood's Earnings
Are you ready to change the time on your car’s clock, or leave it and let it be right again on March 8, 2026? Some technology is cool. Imagine controlling your iPhone entirely with your eyes. (That would really keep me from riding my bike and talking on the phone!) Food delivery robots have human names and blinking eyes. But they’re not our friends any more than the Russians are our allies. Every lender and title company knows that cybercriminals don’t take breaks, and neither do data breaches. The TransUnion breach exposed the personal details of over 4.4 million Americans. If your
Non-QM Hedging, Best-Ex, Compliance Tools; Webinars and Training; Freddie and Redwood's Earnings
Are you ready to change the time on your car’s clock, or leave it and let it be right again on March 8, 2026? Some technology is cool. Imagine controlling your iPhone entirely with your eyes. (That would really keep me from riding my bike and talking on the phone!) Food delivery robots have human names and blinking eyes. But they’re not our friends any more than the Russians are our allies. Every lender and title company knows that cybercriminals don’t take breaks, and neither do data breaches. The TransUnion breach exposed the personal details of over 4.4 million Americans. If your
30th October, 25
Enthusiasm Curbed. Back to Waiting
The simplest way to understand yesterday's post-Fed sell-off is as follows. The market's enthusiasm for 3 Fed rate cuts in 2025 had grown a bit too large for the Fed's liking. The market was nearly 100% certain of another cut in December. The Fed was not as certain, and Powell made it a point to say so yesterday. The result is a mild re-set in yields back to levels that are more consistent with a December cut being a solid possibility, but not a full lock. Now we wait to see if the non-gov econ data tips those scales in one direction or the other. This morning's additional selling
Enthusiasm Curbed. Back to Waiting
The simplest way to understand yesterday's post-Fed sell-off is as follows. The market's enthusiasm for 3 Fed rate cuts in 2025 had grown a bit too large for the Fed's liking. The market was nearly 100% certain of another cut in December. The Fed was not as certain, and Powell made it a point to say so yesterday. The result is a mild re-set in yields back to levels that are more consistent with a December cut being a solid possibility, but not a full lock. Now we wait to see if the non-gov econ data tips those scales in one direction or the other. This morning's additional selling
Staff MemberArchie BajBusiness Development ManagerLocation TorontoLicense M0000000-