Latest news
13th August, 25
Data-Free Rally Day
Data-Free Rally Day Wednesday represented this week's lull in terms of scheduled market movers on the calendar. Overnight gains game courtesy of strength in EU bonds as well as burgeoning expectations for a Fed rate cut at the September meeting (now roughly 100% priced-in according to Fed Funds Futures). There were no new reasons for changes in Fed Funds Futures beyond yesterday's CPI release, so chalk it up to general tradeflow momentum. Thursday brings PPI which, while not as big a deal as CPI, can sometimes cause a noticeable reaction due to its impact on the broader PCE price index. Econ
Data-Free Rally Day
Data-Free Rally Day Wednesday represented this week's lull in terms of scheduled market movers on the calendar. Overnight gains game courtesy of strength in EU bonds as well as burgeoning expectations for a Fed rate cut at the September meeting (now roughly 100% priced-in according to Fed Funds Futures). There were no new reasons for changes in Fed Funds Futures beyond yesterday's CPI release, so chalk it up to general tradeflow momentum. Thursday brings PPI which, while not as big a deal as CPI, can sometimes cause a noticeable reaction due to its impact on the broader PCE price index. Econ
13th August, 25
Mortgage Rates Hit New 10 Month Lows
October 3rd, 2024 continues to be the day to beat when it comes to mortgage rates hanging out at 10 month lows. Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate matched October 4th levels for the first time since then, just barely edging out last week's lowest levels. Hitting the next milestone will be a much bigger challenge. The gap between October 3rd and 4th was about as big as they come with a single day move of more than 0.25%. To put that in perspective, the 5 months leading up to August didn't see a range much larger than 0.25%. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] But this comparison to a past
Mortgage Rates Hit New 10 Month Lows
October 3rd, 2024 continues to be the day to beat when it comes to mortgage rates hanging out at 10 month lows. Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate matched October 4th levels for the first time since then, just barely edging out last week's lowest levels. Hitting the next milestone will be a much bigger challenge. The gap between October 3rd and 4th was about as big as they come with a single day move of more than 0.25%. To put that in perspective, the 5 months leading up to August didn't see a range much larger than 0.25%. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] But this comparison to a past
13th August, 25
TBA Trading, Servicing, DPA, HELOC Products; CFPB and Regulations Shifting
I received this note from Dallas. “I like ‘dillos, but I don’t support giving them guns because... I would never armadillo.” Speaking of which, Texas is slowing down: The Dallas Fed tells us, “Texas’ overall pace of economic growth, much of it due to jobs in innovation, is trending lower, with payroll employment declining in June, a marked turn from robust job gains earlier in 2025.” Texas lenders, or at least banks and credit unions, do their share of adjustable-rate mortgages, so may be okay with lower short-term rates via the Fed and stable long-term rates. Last week’s MBA
TBA Trading, Servicing, DPA, HELOC Products; CFPB and Regulations Shifting
I received this note from Dallas. “I like ‘dillos, but I don’t support giving them guns because... I would never armadillo.” Speaking of which, Texas is slowing down: The Dallas Fed tells us, “Texas’ overall pace of economic growth, much of it due to jobs in innovation, is trending lower, with payroll employment declining in June, a marked turn from robust job gains earlier in 2025.” Texas lenders, or at least banks and credit unions, do their share of adjustable-rate mortgages, so may be okay with lower short-term rates via the Fed and stable long-term rates. Last week’s MBA
13th August, 25
Refi Demand Surged as Rates Hit Longer-Term Lows
Mortgage application activity surged last week as sharply lower mortgage rates boosted refinance demand and gave purchase applications a modest lift. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 10.9% increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 8, 2025. “Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since January, leading to a solid rebound in application activity,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The 30-year fixed rate declined to 6.67%, the third straight weekly drop, and that pulled refinance applications
Refi Demand Surged as Rates Hit Longer-Term Lows
Mortgage application activity surged last week as sharply lower mortgage rates boosted refinance demand and gave purchase applications a modest lift. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 10.9% increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 8, 2025. “Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since January, leading to a solid rebound in application activity,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The 30-year fixed rate declined to 6.67%, the third straight weekly drop, and that pulled refinance applications
13th August, 25
Follow-Through Rally as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Increase
Bonds rallied overnight, largely in concert with lower EU yields. Stable inflation in Germany and lower oil prices helped. But there was also a tailwind from Fed Funds Futures which saw a further increase in the odds of a rate cut at the September meeting. While this is undoubtedly a better way to start the day compared to a sea of red on trading screens, and while a 4+ bp improvement in 10s is more than just an incidental, inconsequential rally in day over day terms, the bigger picture is actually quite boring. It's not an oversimplification to say that yields were orbiting 4.40% before
Follow-Through Rally as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Increase
Bonds rallied overnight, largely in concert with lower EU yields. Stable inflation in Germany and lower oil prices helped. But there was also a tailwind from Fed Funds Futures which saw a further increase in the odds of a rate cut at the September meeting. While this is undoubtedly a better way to start the day compared to a sea of red on trading screens, and while a 4+ bp improvement in 10s is more than just an incidental, inconsequential rally in day over day terms, the bigger picture is actually quite boring. It's not an oversimplification to say that yields were orbiting 4.40% before
12th August, 25
Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data
Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data Right at the 8:30am release time, bonds rallied on core CPI almost perfectly hitting unrounded forecasts (.32 vs .31). Additionally, the 2.7% vs 2.8% annual headline number was another step in the right direction. As markets digested the internals, the "yeah but" trading emerged. "Yeah buts" included supercore CPI (core services excluding housing) rising to 0.481 vs 0.212 month-over-month and evidence of the tariff impact via the highest annual core goods inflation since June 2023. So on one hand, declines in housing
Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data
Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data Right at the 8:30am release time, bonds rallied on core CPI almost perfectly hitting unrounded forecasts (.32 vs .31). Additionally, the 2.7% vs 2.8% annual headline number was another step in the right direction. As markets digested the internals, the "yeah but" trading emerged. "Yeah buts" included supercore CPI (core services excluding housing) rising to 0.481 vs 0.212 month-over-month and evidence of the tariff impact via the highest annual core goods inflation since June 2023. So on one hand, declines in housing
12th August, 25
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Key Inflation Report
Pundits, politicians, and everyone else can continue to assume that mortgage rates will respond to changes to the Fed Funds Rate. Meanwhile the bonds that actually dictate mortgage pricing will continue responding to the most important economic reports. The two biggest examples are the monthly jobs report and today's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). To be fair to those who are overly-focused on the Fed, there is a correlation between this data and the Fed's decision-making process. In other words, today's rates were at risk of moving higher or lower for the same reasons that
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Key Inflation Report
Pundits, politicians, and everyone else can continue to assume that mortgage rates will respond to changes to the Fed Funds Rate. Meanwhile the bonds that actually dictate mortgage pricing will continue responding to the most important economic reports. The two biggest examples are the monthly jobs report and today's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). To be fair to those who are overly-focused on the Fed, there is a correlation between this data and the Fed's decision-making process. In other words, today's rates were at risk of moving higher or lower for the same reasons that
12th August, 25
Variable Rate HELOC, Fraud, Marketing Tools; Educate Your Borrowers; Inflation Data as Expected
“Nothing refreshes my memory about what I need at the grocery store like coming home from the grocery store.” Remember adjustable-rate mortgages? Here at the California MBA’s Western Secondary, talk in the hallways is about memories of how, in the past, just because the Fed changes short-term rates doesn’t mean long-term rates move. Put another way, short-term rates impacting adjustable-rate mortgages may improve while 30-year mortgage rates barely budge. It will be one of the topics in today’s episode of Capital Markets Wrap at 3PM ET. The panel delves into the increase in ARM
Variable Rate HELOC, Fraud, Marketing Tools; Educate Your Borrowers; Inflation Data as Expected
“Nothing refreshes my memory about what I need at the grocery store like coming home from the grocery store.” Remember adjustable-rate mortgages? Here at the California MBA’s Western Secondary, talk in the hallways is about memories of how, in the past, just because the Fed changes short-term rates doesn’t mean long-term rates move. Put another way, short-term rates impacting adjustable-rate mortgages may improve while 30-year mortgage rates barely budge. It will be one of the topics in today’s episode of Capital Markets Wrap at 3PM ET. The panel delves into the increase in ARM
12th August, 25
Mixed Reaction Thanks to Messy Internal CPI Components
There's something for everyone in this morning's CPI data. The monthly headline was on target at 0.2 vs 0.2. Same story for the core at 0.3 vs 0.3. Bonds are just a hair stronger, but it's hard to make a case that they should be based on other internals: The unrounded monthly core was 0.322 versus the median big bank forecast at 0.31 Supercore (core CPI excluding housing) was 0.481 vs 0.212 previously Core goods (tariff sensitive) is now 1.2% year over year - highest since June 2023 All these bullet points argue for bonds to be selling off today and likely justify the backpedaling in the
Mixed Reaction Thanks to Messy Internal CPI Components
There's something for everyone in this morning's CPI data. The monthly headline was on target at 0.2 vs 0.2. Same story for the core at 0.3 vs 0.3. Bonds are just a hair stronger, but it's hard to make a case that they should be based on other internals: The unrounded monthly core was 0.322 versus the median big bank forecast at 0.31 Supercore (core CPI excluding housing) was 0.481 vs 0.212 previously Core goods (tariff sensitive) is now 1.2% year over year - highest since June 2023 All these bullet points argue for bonds to be selling off today and likely justify the backpedaling in the
11th August, 25
Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI
Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI Treasuries outperformed MBS just slightly today, but both were close enough to unchanged to argue against any excess analytical effort. In general, bonds took their last major cue from the jobs report earlier in the month and have been mostly sideways since then. That brings us to Tuesday morning's CPI which is the only true top tier data of the week and the only report that can occasionally hold a candle to the jobs report in terms of volatility potential. As with last month, the headline numbers don't necessarily tell the story. Traders will quickly be
Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI
Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI Treasuries outperformed MBS just slightly today, but both were close enough to unchanged to argue against any excess analytical effort. In general, bonds took their last major cue from the jobs report earlier in the month and have been mostly sideways since then. That brings us to Tuesday morning's CPI which is the only true top tier data of the week and the only report that can occasionally hold a candle to the jobs report in terms of volatility potential. As with last month, the headline numbers don't necessarily tell the story. Traders will quickly be
Mortgage AgentKashif AbbasLocation MiltonLicense M21000066- 
