Latest news
26th June, 25
The Trend is Friendly For Now
The Trend is Friendly For Now A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend." We like to add the addendum: "until it's not anymore." All we can know for sure is that bonds have shifted from range-bound to trending lower in yield over the past 3-4 days and today was just another confirmation of that shift. What we can't know is when the next show of resistance will happen and whether that will merely be a speed bump before additional gains, or a sign to circle the wagons and get sideways again. Data wasn't necessarily a huge factor in today's
The Trend is Friendly For Now
The Trend is Friendly For Now A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend." We like to add the addendum: "until it's not anymore." All we can know for sure is that bonds have shifted from range-bound to trending lower in yield over the past 3-4 days and today was just another confirmation of that shift. What we can't know is when the next show of resistance will happen and whether that will merely be a speed bump before additional gains, or a sign to circle the wagons and get sideways again. Data wasn't necessarily a huge factor in today's
26th June, 25
Mortgage Rate Winning Streak Continues
After topping out on May 21st, the average day for mortgage rates has been a good one. This has been especially true since June 6th with our 30yr fixed index moving down almost 0.25% through this afternoon. Today's gains contributed nicely with a drop of 0.07%. Normally, we'd point to the economic release calendar to help explain this sort of momentum. There were numerous reports out this morning and several of them could be viewed as helpful for rates. But when rates move lower in response to economic data, we tend to see at least some semblance of weakness in the stock
Mortgage Rate Winning Streak Continues
After topping out on May 21st, the average day for mortgage rates has been a good one. This has been especially true since June 6th with our 30yr fixed index moving down almost 0.25% through this afternoon. Today's gains contributed nicely with a drop of 0.07%. Normally, we'd point to the economic release calendar to help explain this sort of momentum. There were numerous reports out this morning and several of them could be viewed as helpful for rates. But when rates move lower in response to economic data, we tend to see at least some semblance of weakness in the stock
26th June, 25
Hedging, Processing, Community Lending, Servicing, Mortgage Intelligence Tools
“I've been experimenting with breeding racing deer. People have accused me of just trying to make a fast buck.” There are no fast bucks to be made in residential lending, and the correct compensation is a continuing topic. (A recent STRATMOR blog was titled, “Compensation is Still Lender’s Largest Expense.”) A veteran LO wrote, “My belief is that most LOs can make the same amount of money with lower rates and lower comp: grow their business and have less drama. LOs state they lose 3 out of 10 loans due to rate. If you make 100bps on 7 loans at $350k per loan, that’s $24,500. If
Hedging, Processing, Community Lending, Servicing, Mortgage Intelligence Tools
“I've been experimenting with breeding racing deer. People have accused me of just trying to make a fast buck.” There are no fast bucks to be made in residential lending, and the correct compensation is a continuing topic. (A recent STRATMOR blog was titled, “Compensation is Still Lender’s Largest Expense.”) A veteran LO wrote, “My belief is that most LOs can make the same amount of money with lower rates and lower comp: grow their business and have less drama. LOs state they lose 3 out of 10 loans due to rate. If you make 100bps on 7 loans at $350k per loan, that’s $24,500. If
26th June, 25
Tons of Data, But Not a Ton of Movement
Visually, the number of line items in this morning's economic calendar may seem daunting. In fact, several of the reports sound like they should matter to the seasoned bond watcher (Durable Goods, GDP, etc). But as it stands, the biggest hour of trading volume this morning fell short of comparable examples from 3 of the past 4 sessions (sessions that had far less to offer in terms of calendar events). In addition, there are some mixed signals in the data that help offset bullish/bearish implications, thus leaving us fairly neutral to start the day
Tons of Data, But Not a Ton of Movement
Visually, the number of line items in this morning's economic calendar may seem daunting. In fact, several of the reports sound like they should matter to the seasoned bond watcher (Durable Goods, GDP, etc). But as it stands, the biggest hour of trading volume this morning fell short of comparable examples from 3 of the past 4 sessions (sessions that had far less to offer in terms of calendar events). In addition, there are some mixed signals in the data that help offset bullish/bearish implications, thus leaving us fairly neutral to start the day
25th June, 25
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger This morning, we noted the lightness of the selling pressure that took bonds into modestly weaker territory. It turns out it was so light that it was easy for bond buyers to get back on top un the afternoon hours. There was a bit of help from the Fed's much-anticipated announcement of a change to banking rules that will effectively allow banks to hold more Treasuries than before. This wasn't a big market mover and its impacts would play out in the background over time, but it did seem to help to the tune of a bp or two today. With that,
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger This morning, we noted the lightness of the selling pressure that took bonds into modestly weaker territory. It turns out it was so light that it was easy for bond buyers to get back on top un the afternoon hours. There was a bit of help from the Fed's much-anticipated announcement of a change to banking rules that will effectively allow banks to hold more Treasuries than before. This wasn't a big market mover and its impacts would play out in the background over time, but it did seem to help to the tune of a bp or two today. With that,
25th June, 25
Lowest Rates in Over 2 Months
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate had already dipped to the lowest levels since May 1st at the start of the week. Two additional days of modest improvement brings us to the lowest levels since April 4th as of today. April 4th is probably a day that's worth remembering. If rates take out that particular floor, it would signify some more serious momentum toward lower borrowing costs. Reason being: April 4th's MND rate index was 6.6%--almost 0.20% lower than today's 6.79%. Rates jumped abruptly after April 4th as the bond market reacted to a
Lowest Rates in Over 2 Months
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate had already dipped to the lowest levels since May 1st at the start of the week. Two additional days of modest improvement brings us to the lowest levels since April 4th as of today. April 4th is probably a day that's worth remembering. If rates take out that particular floor, it would signify some more serious momentum toward lower borrowing costs. Reason being: April 4th's MND rate index was 6.6%--almost 0.20% lower than today's 6.79%. Rates jumped abruptly after April 4th as the bond market reacted to a
25th June, 25
TBA Trading, Servicing Compliance, Digital Marketing, DPA Products; Bank M&A Continues
AI doesn’t have an NMLS number. (Zillow has never, ever set foot in a house for that matter.) Do you own a computer? Most in lending do. Elon Musk? I guess not. A courtroom twist in Musk's war with OpenAI has revealed a stunningly bizarre detail about the self-described Techno King: His lawyers say that he doesn’t own a computer. (We know that President Trump has a telephone, and in fact the Trump Organization’s T1 phone is likely to be made in China.) A big topic at mortgage conferences is Artificial Intelligence. But AI seems to be becoming more lifelike. For example, Sesame AI is a
TBA Trading, Servicing Compliance, Digital Marketing, DPA Products; Bank M&A Continues
AI doesn’t have an NMLS number. (Zillow has never, ever set foot in a house for that matter.) Do you own a computer? Most in lending do. Elon Musk? I guess not. A courtroom twist in Musk's war with OpenAI has revealed a stunningly bizarre detail about the self-described Techno King: His lawyers say that he doesn’t own a computer. (We know that President Trump has a telephone, and in fact the Trump Organization’s T1 phone is likely to be made in China.) A big topic at mortgage conferences is Artificial Intelligence. But AI seems to be becoming more lifelike. For example, Sesame AI is a
25th June, 25
Lighter Calendar and Light Selling
Bonds are taking a breath this morning after hitting the best levels in more than a month yesterday. The event calendar is much lighter than it seems at first glance. While there's always some chance that Powell will say something important at a congressional testimony, the chances are far lower on the 2nd of the 2 days. Beyond that, New Home Sales data is not a big market mover. That leaves the afternoon's 5yr Treasury auction as the main source of potential volatility and it would have to be exceptionally strong/weak in order to realize that potential. Trading levels are slightly
Lighter Calendar and Light Selling
Bonds are taking a breath this morning after hitting the best levels in more than a month yesterday. The event calendar is much lighter than it seems at first glance. While there's always some chance that Powell will say something important at a congressional testimony, the chances are far lower on the 2nd of the 2 days. Beyond that, New Home Sales data is not a big market mover. That leaves the afternoon's 5yr Treasury auction as the main source of potential volatility and it would have to be exceptionally strong/weak in order to realize that potential. Trading levels are slightly
24th June, 25
Solid Response to Data and Dovishness
Solid Response to Data and Dovishness The morning commentary focused more on the relatively dovish tone struck by Powell in today's congressional testimony. To be clear, we wouldn't say it was dovish in an outright sense, but when compared to last week's press conference, it left more hope for fans of low rates. A separate development at the same time which deserves more attention is today's labor differential in the Consumer Confidence Index. It suggests the worst labor market conditions since the economy exited covid lockdowns in 2020. Considering the Fed keeps saying a strong labor market
Solid Response to Data and Dovishness
Solid Response to Data and Dovishness The morning commentary focused more on the relatively dovish tone struck by Powell in today's congressional testimony. To be clear, we wouldn't say it was dovish in an outright sense, but when compared to last week's press conference, it left more hope for fans of low rates. A separate development at the same time which deserves more attention is today's labor differential in the Consumer Confidence Index. It suggests the worst labor market conditions since the economy exited covid lockdowns in 2020. Considering the Fed keeps saying a strong labor market
24th June, 25
Home Prices Fell More Than Expected in April
Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose. If we don't, they were down 0.4% from March. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) April: −0.4%; March was revised from −0.1% to 0.0% YoY: +3.0% from April 2024 to April 2025 Monthly figures varied regionally: the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions posted the steepest falls (−1.3%), while the Middle
Home Prices Fell More Than Expected in April
Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose. If we don't, they were down 0.4% from March. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) April: −0.4%; March was revised from −0.1% to 0.0% YoY: +3.0% from April 2024 to April 2025 Monthly figures varied regionally: the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions posted the steepest falls (−1.3%), while the Middle
Mortgage AgentCalvin MarcusLocation MarkhamLicense M08006531- 
