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15th July, 25
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction? Heading into today's data, we knew there was a possibility of two separate reactions--one for the top line CPI numbers and one for a deeper look at the internal components. Those internals show that tariffs are having an impact even though it was a smaller impact than many forecasters were expecting. Bonds didn't seem to care at first. When a new glut of trades came online at the 9:30am NYSE open, that changed. Both stocks and bonds sold off sharply starting at 9:30am and this move looks far more convincing that the initial rally. Econ Data /
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction?
What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction? Heading into today's data, we knew there was a possibility of two separate reactions--one for the top line CPI numbers and one for a deeper look at the internal components. Those internals show that tariffs are having an impact even though it was a smaller impact than many forecasters were expecting. Bonds didn't seem to care at first. When a new glut of trades came online at the 9:30am NYSE open, that changed. Both stocks and bonds sold off sharply starting at 9:30am and this move looks far more convincing that the initial rally. Econ Data /
15th July, 25
Mortgage Rates Move Higher Despite Decent Inflation Reading
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds don't like inflation. When inflation reports are higher than the market expected, rates tend to rise, all other things being equal. But today's inflation numbers were a bit lower than the median forecast. This scenario is typically more likely to push rates lower. Indeed, in the first hour following today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, bond trading implied lower rates. Then things changed. Recall our closing reminder from yesterday which qualified the conventional wisdom reactions, saying "even then,
Mortgage Rates Move Higher Despite Decent Inflation Reading
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds don't like inflation. When inflation reports are higher than the market expected, rates tend to rise, all other things being equal. But today's inflation numbers were a bit lower than the median forecast. This scenario is typically more likely to push rates lower. Indeed, in the first hour following today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, bond trading implied lower rates. Then things changed. Recall our closing reminder from yesterday which qualified the conventional wisdom reactions, saying "even then,
15th July, 25
Corresp. and Wholesale, Internal Audit, Verification Products, Redlining Webinar; When LOs Should Prospect
Here’s a cool password: 2 444 66666 8888888 9. (You can figure it out.) I’m no IT wizard, but some are. Do you want AI to open your emails and create drafts for you to reply to them? Fyxer does exactly that. Goldman Sachs is piloting an autonomous software engineer, Devin, from AI startup Cognition, marking a significant advancement in AI integration. Devin, capable of handling complex tasks with minimal human intervention, could soon join Goldman's 12,000 developers, potentially scaling to thousands of AI engineers depending on use cases. I didn’t make the cut for Facebook, uh, Meta’s
Corresp. and Wholesale, Internal Audit, Verification Products, Redlining Webinar; When LOs Should Prospect
Here’s a cool password: 2 444 66666 8888888 9. (You can figure it out.) I’m no IT wizard, but some are. Do you want AI to open your emails and create drafts for you to reply to them? Fyxer does exactly that. Goldman Sachs is piloting an autonomous software engineer, Devin, from AI startup Cognition, marking a significant advancement in AI integration. Devin, capable of handling complex tasks with minimal human intervention, could soon join Goldman's 12,000 developers, potentially scaling to thousands of AI engineers depending on use cases. I didn’t make the cut for Facebook, uh, Meta’s
15th July, 25
Tariffs Show Up in CPI, But Not Enough to Hurt
If market watchers get out their magnifying glasses, they can certainly find some evidence of tariffs impacting inflation in various goods, but those goods are such a small part of the overall CPI calculation that they didn't account for any of this month's higher inflation. Rather, it was the usual suspects (housing, medical care, professional services) that did most of the damage of the damage. Bonds are certainly able to rally based on the fact that CPI came in below forecast, but bonds are just as certain to have second thoughts about that rally based on the persistence of non-tariff
Tariffs Show Up in CPI, But Not Enough to Hurt
If market watchers get out their magnifying glasses, they can certainly find some evidence of tariffs impacting inflation in various goods, but those goods are such a small part of the overall CPI calculation that they didn't account for any of this month's higher inflation. Rather, it was the usual suspects (housing, medical care, professional services) that did most of the damage of the damage. Bonds are certainly able to rally based on the fact that CPI came in below forecast, but bonds are just as certain to have second thoughts about that rally based on the persistence of non-tariff
14th July, 25
All Eyes on CPI
All Eyes on CPI Bonds have sold off a bit so far in July, but haven't lost much more ground versus last Tuesday as of this afternoon. In other words, trading levels have been coiling for nearly a week as we've traversed a data-free calendar in anticipation of a very important CPI (Consumer Price Index). This is most notable opportunity yet for big-ticket data to show tariff impacts both because it's the first major report for June and also because several Fed members have specifically mentioned June's data as being likely affected. It doesn't take much to connect the dots from there. If
All Eyes on CPI
All Eyes on CPI Bonds have sold off a bit so far in July, but haven't lost much more ground versus last Tuesday as of this afternoon. In other words, trading levels have been coiling for nearly a week as we've traversed a data-free calendar in anticipation of a very important CPI (Consumer Price Index). This is most notable opportunity yet for big-ticket data to show tariff impacts both because it's the first major report for June and also because several Fed members have specifically mentioned June's data as being likely affected. It doesn't take much to connect the dots from there. If
14th July, 25
Mortgage Rates Just a Hair Higher Ahead of Important Inflation Report
Today's movement in mortgage rates, in and of itself, is barely worth mentioning. The average lender remains close enough to Friday's levels but is technically just a hair higher. That fact is offset by the counterpoint that most of the past two months saw higher rates. The future is far more interesting than the present--specifically, the immediate future. Tomorrow morning brings the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the most important economic reports as far as interest rates are concerned and tomorrow's example is especially notable. This CPI marks
Mortgage Rates Just a Hair Higher Ahead of Important Inflation Report
Today's movement in mortgage rates, in and of itself, is barely worth mentioning. The average lender remains close enough to Friday's levels but is technically just a hair higher. That fact is offset by the counterpoint that most of the past two months saw higher rates. The future is far more interesting than the present--specifically, the immediate future. Tomorrow morning brings the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the most important economic reports as far as interest rates are concerned and tomorrow's example is especially notable. This CPI marks
14th July, 25
HELOC, Servicing, AI Fee Research Tools; Webinars and Training; Anti-Poaching Interview
In news for fans of the wholesale lending channel (more below), heading into the baseball All Star Break the Philadelphia Phillies, owned in part by Freedom Mortgage’s Stan Middleman, are leading the NL East. UWM Holdings Corp CEO Mat Ishbia and SFS Holding Corp sold a combined total of 1,200,108 shares of UWM Class A Common Stock in three separate transactions, netting approximately $5 million. The sales come as UWM, currently valued at $6.6 billion, has seen its stock decline by over 26 percent in the past six months. That said, UWM has invested $100 million in Bilt which offers rewards
HELOC, Servicing, AI Fee Research Tools; Webinars and Training; Anti-Poaching Interview
In news for fans of the wholesale lending channel (more below), heading into the baseball All Star Break the Philadelphia Phillies, owned in part by Freedom Mortgage’s Stan Middleman, are leading the NL East. UWM Holdings Corp CEO Mat Ishbia and SFS Holding Corp sold a combined total of 1,200,108 shares of UWM Class A Common Stock in three separate transactions, netting approximately $5 million. The sales come as UWM, currently valued at $6.6 billion, has seen its stock decline by over 26 percent in the past six months. That said, UWM has invested $100 million in Bilt which offers rewards
14th July, 25
Empty Calendar and a Sideways Start
Monday is proving to be a good candidate for a bonus summertime weekend day so far. Volumes and volatility were low overnight and trading levels are inconsequentially weaker after. There was a small amount of selling in Treasuries at 7am, but a recovery after the 9:30am NYSE open. We're now right in line with most of the overnight session. In the bigger picture, nothing much has changed since last Tuesday. Bonds rallied nicely in June, with an acceleration into the end of the month. Early July weakness erased the gains associated with that acceleration and we're now waiting for
Empty Calendar and a Sideways Start
Monday is proving to be a good candidate for a bonus summertime weekend day so far. Volumes and volatility were low overnight and trading levels are inconsequentially weaker after. There was a small amount of selling in Treasuries at 7am, but a recovery after the 9:30am NYSE open. We're now right in line with most of the overnight session. In the bigger picture, nothing much has changed since last Tuesday. Bonds rallied nicely in June, with an acceleration into the end of the month. Early July weakness erased the gains associated with that acceleration and we're now waiting for
11th July, 25
Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact
Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact Stocks sold off quickly in the overnight session in response to the announcement of 35% tariffs on Canada. Bonds view such news as a double edged sword, but also drifted into weaker and weaker territory as the day progressed. Given that yields remained inside the week's range, we're more inclined to view this as an acceptable sideways drift ahead of big ticket data event: Tuesday's CPI report. It goes without saying that some of the market will have to be surprised by the outcome which either will or will not show that tariffs have begun impacted the data in
Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact
Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact Stocks sold off quickly in the overnight session in response to the announcement of 35% tariffs on Canada. Bonds view such news as a double edged sword, but also drifted into weaker and weaker territory as the day progressed. Given that yields remained inside the week's range, we're more inclined to view this as an acceptable sideways drift ahead of big ticket data event: Tuesday's CPI report. It goes without saying that some of the market will have to be surprised by the outcome which either will or will not show that tariffs have begun impacted the data in
11th July, 25
Highest Mortgage Rates of The Week, Just Barely
Yesterday, we characterized the prevailing mortgage rate momentum as "broadly sideways," and while that's still very true in the bigger picture, words like "up" and "higher" might need to be sprinkled in this week. For those with a glass-half-empty approach, today's rates are the highest of the week and the highest since June 24th. For the optimists (and, in our view, the pragmatists), today's rates are virtually identical to those seen on Tuesday. Specifically, our 30yr fixed rate index is only 0.01% higher today--the smallest possible change. Motivation for movement in rates and
Highest Mortgage Rates of The Week, Just Barely
Yesterday, we characterized the prevailing mortgage rate momentum as "broadly sideways," and while that's still very true in the bigger picture, words like "up" and "higher" might need to be sprinkled in this week. For those with a glass-half-empty approach, today's rates are the highest of the week and the highest since June 24th. For the optimists (and, in our view, the pragmatists), today's rates are virtually identical to those seen on Tuesday. Specifically, our 30yr fixed rate index is only 0.01% higher today--the smallest possible change. Motivation for movement in rates and
Mortgage AgentAnkit ParekhLocation ScarboroughLicense M23004851- 
