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27th June, 25
Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture
Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture After a decent mid-day recover, bonds gave up their gains heading into the 3pm close. It's a level of weakness that demands no explanation in the bigger picture--especially on a Friday afternoon of a week with a rally on every single previous day. Nonetheless, one could make a case for the bump by pointing to things like Senate moving closer to a spending bill vote with reports suggesting slightly more spending than before. Separate headlines involved Trump declaring an end to trade negotiations with Canada--
Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture
Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture After a decent mid-day recover, bonds gave up their gains heading into the 3pm close. It's a level of weakness that demands no explanation in the bigger picture--especially on a Friday afternoon of a week with a rally on every single previous day. Nonetheless, one could make a case for the bump by pointing to things like Senate moving closer to a spending bill vote with reports suggesting slightly more spending than before. Separate headlines involved Trump declaring an end to trade negotiations with Canada--
27th June, 25
Mortgage Rates Not Too Far From 8 Month Lows
Friday's mortgage rates ended up being right in line with Thursday's on average. At 6.72%, the MND daily rate index is as low as it's been since early April when it hit 6.60%. If you're thinking that 6.72 doesn't sound much higher than 6.60, you're right! Mortgage lenders tend to offer rates in 0.125% increments, so we're really only one notch away from those lows. After that, we'd need to go all the way back to October to see anything lower. While the mortgage market can languish sideways for weeks without moving outside a 0.12 range, there are also more than a few examples
Mortgage Rates Not Too Far From 8 Month Lows
Friday's mortgage rates ended up being right in line with Thursday's on average. At 6.72%, the MND daily rate index is as low as it's been since early April when it hit 6.60%. If you're thinking that 6.72 doesn't sound much higher than 6.60, you're right! Mortgage lenders tend to offer rates in 0.125% increments, so we're really only one notch away from those lows. After that, we'd need to go all the way back to October to see anything lower. While the mortgage market can languish sideways for weeks without moving outside a 0.12 range, there are also more than a few examples
27th June, 25
HELOC, Ops Tools; STRATMOR and Servicing; The Importance of Marketing; Freddie Fannie News
Does anyone pay with cash anymore, or actually have the money in their bank account? Credit card debt is now $1.1 trillion. There is even a credit card just for automotive repairs! With those “Buy Now Pay Later” arrangements being added to the FICO reports, MLOs are asking, “What are delinquencies like? Will these add to, or subtract from, my pool of eligible borrowers? To the surprise of no veteran LO, it turns out that nearly half have experienced payment problems. Want to do a client with a high credit card balance (and paying 28 percent on it) a favor? Of course you want to put them
HELOC, Ops Tools; STRATMOR and Servicing; The Importance of Marketing; Freddie Fannie News
Does anyone pay with cash anymore, or actually have the money in their bank account? Credit card debt is now $1.1 trillion. There is even a credit card just for automotive repairs! With those “Buy Now Pay Later” arrangements being added to the FICO reports, MLOs are asking, “What are delinquencies like? Will these add to, or subtract from, my pool of eligible borrowers? To the surprise of no veteran LO, it turns out that nearly half have experienced payment problems. Want to do a client with a high credit card balance (and paying 28 percent on it) a favor? Of course you want to put them
27th June, 25
Pending Home Sales Data Scores Some Points, But Not Enough to Change The Game
The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has remained rangebound for more than two years, constrained by affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates. This week’s update showed a modest improvement, but the broader story hasn’t changed. Pending home sales rose by 1.8% in May, marking the first increase since February. The index is now 1.1% higher than a year ago , but still well below pre-2022 norms. Zooming out, contract activity remains stuck in a narrow band. The index hasn’t been above 80 since
Pending Home Sales Data Scores Some Points, But Not Enough to Change The Game
The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has remained rangebound for more than two years, constrained by affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates. This week’s update showed a modest improvement, but the broader story hasn’t changed. Pending home sales rose by 1.8% in May, marking the first increase since February. The index is now 1.1% higher than a year ago , but still well below pre-2022 norms. Zooming out, contract activity remains stuck in a narrow band. The index hasn’t been above 80 since
27th June, 25
New Home Sales Drop to Lower End of Range After Hitting The Highs Last Month
New Home Sales fell sharply in May according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD. After a brief surge in April, the seasonally adjusted annual pace dropped to 623,000—down 13.7% from April's revised reading of 722,000 and 6.3% lower than the same month last year. When last month's data originally came out, the annual pace of 743k was the highest in several years. The drop brings sales activity back in line with late 2023 levels. While it’s not uncommon to see volatility in this data series, the sharp monthly decline is still notable, especially considering the downward
New Home Sales Drop to Lower End of Range After Hitting The Highs Last Month
New Home Sales fell sharply in May according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD. After a brief surge in April, the seasonally adjusted annual pace dropped to 623,000—down 13.7% from April's revised reading of 722,000 and 6.3% lower than the same month last year. When last month's data originally came out, the annual pace of 743k was the highest in several years. The drop brings sales activity back in line with late 2023 levels. While it’s not uncommon to see volatility in this data series, the sharp monthly decline is still notable, especially considering the downward
27th June, 25
Mortgage Applications Buoyed by FHA Refis
Mortgage application activity moved slightly higher last week despite a modest uptick in rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index rose 1.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 20, with a small gain in refis offsetting a minor decline in purchase activity. Results included an adjustment for the Juneteenth holiday. “Applications increased slightly overall driven by FHA refinances, but conventional applications saw declines over the week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The
Mortgage Applications Buoyed by FHA Refis
Mortgage application activity moved slightly higher last week despite a modest uptick in rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index rose 1.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 20, with a small gain in refis offsetting a minor decline in purchase activity. Results included an adjustment for the Juneteenth holiday. “Applications increased slightly overall driven by FHA refinances, but conventional applications saw declines over the week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The
27th June, 25
Existing Home Sales Tick Up Slightly, but Remain Near 6-Month Lows
Two months ago, existing home sales reached the highest levels in a year according to the National Association of Realtors. Last month’s report showed a noticeable dip to 5‑month lows. The latest data, released June 23, is more subdued. Sales held near 6‑month lows in May, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million—essentially unchanged from April with a modest 0.8% month‑over‑month increase, and still down 0.7% year‑over‑year As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart results in an entirely different impression of the home resale market
Existing Home Sales Tick Up Slightly, but Remain Near 6-Month Lows
Two months ago, existing home sales reached the highest levels in a year according to the National Association of Realtors. Last month’s report showed a noticeable dip to 5‑month lows. The latest data, released June 23, is more subdued. Sales held near 6‑month lows in May, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million—essentially unchanged from April with a modest 0.8% month‑over‑month increase, and still down 0.7% year‑over‑year As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart results in an entirely different impression of the home resale market
27th June, 25
Minimal Impact From PCE Data
Bonds are slightly weaker to start the final trading day of the week, but that has nothing to do with this morning's PCE data. Despite being the Fed's favorite inflation index and despite causing some notable drama in the past, PCE hasn't caused much of a stir recently and today's is no exception. Core monthly inflation was .179 vs a .1 forecast, but elsewhere in the data, sharply lower income and spending were enough to offset the slightly higher inflation. Bonds actually improved a bit, pushing back on overnight weakness, but subsequent headlines regarding the Senate's push to
Minimal Impact From PCE Data
Bonds are slightly weaker to start the final trading day of the week, but that has nothing to do with this morning's PCE data. Despite being the Fed's favorite inflation index and despite causing some notable drama in the past, PCE hasn't caused much of a stir recently and today's is no exception. Core monthly inflation was .179 vs a .1 forecast, but elsewhere in the data, sharply lower income and spending were enough to offset the slightly higher inflation. Bonds actually improved a bit, pushing back on overnight weakness, but subsequent headlines regarding the Senate's push to
26th June, 25
The Trend is Friendly For Now
The Trend is Friendly For Now A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend." We like to add the addendum: "until it's not anymore." All we can know for sure is that bonds have shifted from range-bound to trending lower in yield over the past 3-4 days and today was just another confirmation of that shift. What we can't know is when the next show of resistance will happen and whether that will merely be a speed bump before additional gains, or a sign to circle the wagons and get sideways again. Data wasn't necessarily a huge factor in today's
The Trend is Friendly For Now
The Trend is Friendly For Now A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend." We like to add the addendum: "until it's not anymore." All we can know for sure is that bonds have shifted from range-bound to trending lower in yield over the past 3-4 days and today was just another confirmation of that shift. What we can't know is when the next show of resistance will happen and whether that will merely be a speed bump before additional gains, or a sign to circle the wagons and get sideways again. Data wasn't necessarily a huge factor in today's
26th June, 25
Mortgage Rate Winning Streak Continues
After topping out on May 21st, the average day for mortgage rates has been a good one. This has been especially true since June 6th with our 30yr fixed index moving down almost 0.25% through this afternoon. Today's gains contributed nicely with a drop of 0.07%. Normally, we'd point to the economic release calendar to help explain this sort of momentum. There were numerous reports out this morning and several of them could be viewed as helpful for rates. But when rates move lower in response to economic data, we tend to see at least some semblance of weakness in the stock
Mortgage Rate Winning Streak Continues
After topping out on May 21st, the average day for mortgage rates has been a good one. This has been especially true since June 6th with our 30yr fixed index moving down almost 0.25% through this afternoon. Today's gains contributed nicely with a drop of 0.07%. Normally, we'd point to the economic release calendar to help explain this sort of momentum. There were numerous reports out this morning and several of them could be viewed as helpful for rates. But when rates move lower in response to economic data, we tend to see at least some semblance of weakness in the stock
Mortgage AgentBaptiste KagemanaLocation TorontoLicense M09001927- 
