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8th August, 25
Focus Shifts to Next Week's High Stakes CPI
Focus Shifts to Next Week's High Stakes CPI Bonds lost ground at the fastest pace of the week on Friday, but even that ended up being insignificant in the bigger picture. The bottom line is that this week's trading helped solidify and consolidate the gains seen after last week's jobs report. With nothing of note on tap today, focus quickly shifted to the risks/opportunities inherent in next Tuesday's CPI report--one of two key players when it comes to determining the next big move for rates (the other being the next jobs report in early September). Higher inflation would suggest bonds erase
Focus Shifts to Next Week's High Stakes CPI
Focus Shifts to Next Week's High Stakes CPI Bonds lost ground at the fastest pace of the week on Friday, but even that ended up being insignificant in the bigger picture. The bottom line is that this week's trading helped solidify and consolidate the gains seen after last week's jobs report. With nothing of note on tap today, focus quickly shifted to the risks/opportunities inherent in next Tuesday's CPI report--one of two key players when it comes to determining the next big move for rates (the other being the next jobs report in early September). Higher inflation would suggest bonds erase
8th August, 25
Mortgage Rates Flat Ahead of Next Week’s High-Stakes Data
Mortgage rates finally moved in a slightly more noticeable direction today, but the change was still inconsequential in the bigger picture. The average 30yr fixed rate in our index edged up a mere 2 hundredths of a percent from 6.55% to 6.57%, exactly matching the levels seen on August 6th. This leaves rates in the same low range they’ve occupied all week. This week’s stability follows last Friday’s jobs report, which pushed bond yields—and by extension, rates—sharply lower. Since then, daily market movements have been too small to force meaningful lender changes. Even with today’s
Mortgage Rates Flat Ahead of Next Week’s High-Stakes Data
Mortgage rates finally moved in a slightly more noticeable direction today, but the change was still inconsequential in the bigger picture. The average 30yr fixed rate in our index edged up a mere 2 hundredths of a percent from 6.55% to 6.57%, exactly matching the levels seen on August 6th. This leaves rates in the same low range they’ve occupied all week. This week’s stability follows last Friday’s jobs report, which pushed bond yields—and by extension, rates—sharply lower. Since then, daily market movements have been too small to force meaningful lender changes. Even with today’s
8th August, 25
Falling Rates Spark Modest Rebound in Mortgage Applications
Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as falling rates boosted both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey for the week ending August 1, 2025, showed a 3.1% increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index from the prior week. “Mortgage rates moved lower last week, following declining Treasury yields as economic data releases signaled a weakening U.S. economy,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “As a result, the 30-year fixed rate decreased for the third straight week to 6.77%, and applications for
Falling Rates Spark Modest Rebound in Mortgage Applications
Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as falling rates boosted both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey for the week ending August 1, 2025, showed a 3.1% increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index from the prior week. “Mortgage rates moved lower last week, following declining Treasury yields as economic data releases signaled a weakening U.S. economy,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “As a result, the 30-year fixed rate decreased for the third straight week to 6.77%, and applications for
8th August, 25
HELOC, Warehouse Products; Better.com Earnings; Upcoming Events; AI and Threatened Jobs
People gearing up for the Western Secondary in Southern California see that “technology” is on the agenda. (Of course, it is always on every agenda, right?) Is the making of baby carrots considered “technology”? When Google tells you that part of its sales business was hacked, do you even care? On Monday, Jessica Evett, SVP of Product Strategy and Technology Ops, CloudVirga, discussing how to think about what point of sale means now? Where is the data we need and how do we collect and verify it for approval? Embalmers don’t read this Commentary, nor do they use a lot of technology:
HELOC, Warehouse Products; Better.com Earnings; Upcoming Events; AI and Threatened Jobs
People gearing up for the Western Secondary in Southern California see that “technology” is on the agenda. (Of course, it is always on every agenda, right?) Is the making of baby carrots considered “technology”? When Google tells you that part of its sales business was hacked, do you even care? On Monday, Jessica Evett, SVP of Product Strategy and Technology Ops, CloudVirga, discussing how to think about what point of sale means now? Where is the data we need and how do we collect and verify it for approval? Embalmers don’t read this Commentary, nor do they use a lot of technology:
8th August, 25
Empty Calendar and Summertime Drift
Any week in early August (before anyone is back to school yet) classifies a "dog days of summer" type of week for the bond market. Movement is more random. Ranges are narrower. And major technical levels are rarely challenged in a significant way. Think of the present week like this. Last Friday saw 10yr yields drop from 4.4 to 4.2. Junior traders could be left with the instruction to sell 4.2 and buy 4.25 in the following week. That's what we saw Monday through Thursday. Now today, yields are creeping up just a bit more amid light volume and light liquidity. It's not a move that
Empty Calendar and Summertime Drift
Any week in early August (before anyone is back to school yet) classifies a "dog days of summer" type of week for the bond market. Movement is more random. Ranges are narrower. And major technical levels are rarely challenged in a significant way. Think of the present week like this. Last Friday saw 10yr yields drop from 4.4 to 4.2. Junior traders could be left with the instruction to sell 4.2 and buy 4.25 in the following week. That's what we saw Monday through Thursday. Now today, yields are creeping up just a bit more amid light volume and light liquidity. It's not a move that
7th August, 25
Fairly Resilient Despite Bumpy Auction
Fairly Resilient Despite Bumpy Auction The relevant morning econ data was limited to Jobless Claims. While the weekly and continuing numbers were both higher than expected, it wasn't a big enough miss to spark any sort of decisive rally in bonds. MBS lost ground heading into the PM hours and lost some more ground after a poorly received 30yr bond auction. But whereas the auction could have been used as a front for additional selling, bonds generally did a decent job of holding their ground in the last few hours of the day. Friday's calendar is empty. This doesn't mean we won't see any
Fairly Resilient Despite Bumpy Auction
Fairly Resilient Despite Bumpy Auction The relevant morning econ data was limited to Jobless Claims. While the weekly and continuing numbers were both higher than expected, it wasn't a big enough miss to spark any sort of decisive rally in bonds. MBS lost ground heading into the PM hours and lost some more ground after a poorly received 30yr bond auction. But whereas the auction could have been used as a front for additional selling, bonds generally did a decent job of holding their ground in the last few hours of the day. Friday's calendar is empty. This doesn't mean we won't see any
7th August, 25
Mortgage Rates Hit Another New Longer-Term Low
Mortgage rates have barely budged after Monday with the day-over-day change failing to exceed 0.02% on any given day. But today's budging happened to bring the average 30yr fixed rate to another 10-month low. Lenders are in the mid 6% range for top tier scenarios. Economic data is one of the common influences for the bonds that underly rate movement. Today's only somewhat significant report was the weekly jobless claims data. It would have needed to fall very far from forecasts in order to have a big impact. While it was higher than expected, the "miss" was too small to matter.
Mortgage Rates Hit Another New Longer-Term Low
Mortgage rates have barely budged after Monday with the day-over-day change failing to exceed 0.02% on any given day. But today's budging happened to bring the average 30yr fixed rate to another 10-month low. Lenders are in the mid 6% range for top tier scenarios. Economic data is one of the common influences for the bonds that underly rate movement. Today's only somewhat significant report was the weekly jobless claims data. It would have needed to fall very far from forecasts in order to have a big impact. While it was higher than expected, the "miss" was too small to matter.
7th August, 25
Loan Delivery, Warehouse, Compliance Webinar, Workflow Tools; Correspondent News
We’re back traveling and packing for the plethora of conferences. Packing and intellect sometimes collide: for the life of me, I can’t seem to grasp this simple video on the moves of how to fold a t-shirt in under two seconds. (It is worth waiting out the ad; show it to your kids.) The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but the markets seem focused on its every move and opinion since its mandate of maximum employment, price stability, and steady inflation is always precarious. The Fed is often a topic on The Big Picture, but this week Katie Sweeney, EVP of Broker Strategy and Advocacy at
Loan Delivery, Warehouse, Compliance Webinar, Workflow Tools; Correspondent News
We’re back traveling and packing for the plethora of conferences. Packing and intellect sometimes collide: for the life of me, I can’t seem to grasp this simple video on the moves of how to fold a t-shirt in under two seconds. (It is worth waiting out the ad; show it to your kids.) The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but the markets seem focused on its every move and opinion since its mandate of maximum employment, price stability, and steady inflation is always precarious. The Fed is often a topic on The Big Picture, but this week Katie Sweeney, EVP of Broker Strategy and Advocacy at
7th August, 25
Another Sideways Start Amid Uninspiring Data
The week's last hope for any signs of life from economic data has come and gone with this morning's Jobless Claims. To be fair, there was never really much of a chance for this particular data to inspire any significant reaction in bonds. There may be signs of weakness in the labor market, but they're not readily seen in claims data because the weakness isn't a result of people losing jobs as much as it about not finding jobs. In that sense, the continuing claims portion of the jobless claims report is sort of capturing the phenomenon (i.e. weekly initial claims shows no
Another Sideways Start Amid Uninspiring Data
The week's last hope for any signs of life from economic data has come and gone with this morning's Jobless Claims. To be fair, there was never really much of a chance for this particular data to inspire any significant reaction in bonds. There may be signs of weakness in the labor market, but they're not readily seen in claims data because the weakness isn't a result of people losing jobs as much as it about not finding jobs. In that sense, the continuing claims portion of the jobless claims report is sort of capturing the phenomenon (i.e. weekly initial claims shows no
6th August, 25
More Ground-Holding Despite Weird Intraday Spike
More Ground-Holding Despite Weird Intraday Spike This morning's commentary led with our desire to avoid jinxing this week's flat, boring market movement with rates at long term lows. But for a few minutes mid-day, it looked like the jinx was real. At 11:35am, yields shot 3bps higher in a matter of minutes and in exceptionally heavy volume. Several hours later and there are still no solid explanations for the mini-drama. Thankfully, explanations are less important after Treasuries fully erased the mid-day weakness. Mystery moves like this happen. They usually offer clues by
More Ground-Holding Despite Weird Intraday Spike
More Ground-Holding Despite Weird Intraday Spike This morning's commentary led with our desire to avoid jinxing this week's flat, boring market movement with rates at long term lows. But for a few minutes mid-day, it looked like the jinx was real. At 11:35am, yields shot 3bps higher in a matter of minutes and in exceptionally heavy volume. Several hours later and there are still no solid explanations for the mini-drama. Thankfully, explanations are less important after Treasuries fully erased the mid-day weakness. Mystery moves like this happen. They usually offer clues by
Mortgage AgentDivneet SethiLocation BramptonLicense M23005917- 
