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25th June, 25
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger This morning, we noted the lightness of the selling pressure that took bonds into modestly weaker territory. It turns out it was so light that it was easy for bond buyers to get back on top un the afternoon hours. There was a bit of help from the Fed's much-anticipated announcement of a change to banking rules that will effectively allow banks to hold more Treasuries than before. This wasn't a big market mover and its impacts would play out in the background over time, but it did seem to help to the tune of a bp or two today. With that,
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger This morning, we noted the lightness of the selling pressure that took bonds into modestly weaker territory. It turns out it was so light that it was easy for bond buyers to get back on top un the afternoon hours. There was a bit of help from the Fed's much-anticipated announcement of a change to banking rules that will effectively allow banks to hold more Treasuries than before. This wasn't a big market mover and its impacts would play out in the background over time, but it did seem to help to the tune of a bp or two today. With that,
25th June, 25
Lowest Rates in Over 2 Months
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate had already dipped to the lowest levels since May 1st at the start of the week. Two additional days of modest improvement brings us to the lowest levels since April 4th as of today. April 4th is probably a day that's worth remembering. If rates take out that particular floor, it would signify some more serious momentum toward lower borrowing costs. Reason being: April 4th's MND rate index was 6.6%--almost 0.20% lower than today's 6.79%. Rates jumped abruptly after April 4th as the bond market reacted to a
Lowest Rates in Over 2 Months
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate had already dipped to the lowest levels since May 1st at the start of the week. Two additional days of modest improvement brings us to the lowest levels since April 4th as of today. April 4th is probably a day that's worth remembering. If rates take out that particular floor, it would signify some more serious momentum toward lower borrowing costs. Reason being: April 4th's MND rate index was 6.6%--almost 0.20% lower than today's 6.79%. Rates jumped abruptly after April 4th as the bond market reacted to a
25th June, 25
TBA Trading, Servicing Compliance, Digital Marketing, DPA Products; Bank M&A Continues
AI doesn’t have an NMLS number. (Zillow has never, ever set foot in a house for that matter.) Do you own a computer? Most in lending do. Elon Musk? I guess not. A courtroom twist in Musk's war with OpenAI has revealed a stunningly bizarre detail about the self-described Techno King: His lawyers say that he doesn’t own a computer. (We know that President Trump has a telephone, and in fact the Trump Organization’s T1 phone is likely to be made in China.) A big topic at mortgage conferences is Artificial Intelligence. But AI seems to be becoming more lifelike. For example, Sesame AI is a
TBA Trading, Servicing Compliance, Digital Marketing, DPA Products; Bank M&A Continues
AI doesn’t have an NMLS number. (Zillow has never, ever set foot in a house for that matter.) Do you own a computer? Most in lending do. Elon Musk? I guess not. A courtroom twist in Musk's war with OpenAI has revealed a stunningly bizarre detail about the self-described Techno King: His lawyers say that he doesn’t own a computer. (We know that President Trump has a telephone, and in fact the Trump Organization’s T1 phone is likely to be made in China.) A big topic at mortgage conferences is Artificial Intelligence. But AI seems to be becoming more lifelike. For example, Sesame AI is a
25th June, 25
Lighter Calendar and Light Selling
Bonds are taking a breath this morning after hitting the best levels in more than a month yesterday. The event calendar is much lighter than it seems at first glance. While there's always some chance that Powell will say something important at a congressional testimony, the chances are far lower on the 2nd of the 2 days. Beyond that, New Home Sales data is not a big market mover. That leaves the afternoon's 5yr Treasury auction as the main source of potential volatility and it would have to be exceptionally strong/weak in order to realize that potential. Trading levels are slightly
Lighter Calendar and Light Selling
Bonds are taking a breath this morning after hitting the best levels in more than a month yesterday. The event calendar is much lighter than it seems at first glance. While there's always some chance that Powell will say something important at a congressional testimony, the chances are far lower on the 2nd of the 2 days. Beyond that, New Home Sales data is not a big market mover. That leaves the afternoon's 5yr Treasury auction as the main source of potential volatility and it would have to be exceptionally strong/weak in order to realize that potential. Trading levels are slightly
24th June, 25
Solid Response to Data and Dovishness
Solid Response to Data and Dovishness The morning commentary focused more on the relatively dovish tone struck by Powell in today's congressional testimony. To be clear, we wouldn't say it was dovish in an outright sense, but when compared to last week's press conference, it left more hope for fans of low rates. A separate development at the same time which deserves more attention is today's labor differential in the Consumer Confidence Index. It suggests the worst labor market conditions since the economy exited covid lockdowns in 2020. Considering the Fed keeps saying a strong labor market
Solid Response to Data and Dovishness
Solid Response to Data and Dovishness The morning commentary focused more on the relatively dovish tone struck by Powell in today's congressional testimony. To be clear, we wouldn't say it was dovish in an outright sense, but when compared to last week's press conference, it left more hope for fans of low rates. A separate development at the same time which deserves more attention is today's labor differential in the Consumer Confidence Index. It suggests the worst labor market conditions since the economy exited covid lockdowns in 2020. Considering the Fed keeps saying a strong labor market
24th June, 25
Home Prices Fell More Than Expected in April
Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose. If we don't, they were down 0.4% from March. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) April: −0.4%; March was revised from −0.1% to 0.0% YoY: +3.0% from April 2024 to April 2025 Monthly figures varied regionally: the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions posted the steepest falls (−1.3%), while the Middle
Home Prices Fell More Than Expected in April
Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose. If we don't, they were down 0.4% from March. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) April: −0.4%; March was revised from −0.1% to 0.0% YoY: +3.0% from April 2024 to April 2025 Monthly figures varied regionally: the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions posted the steepest falls (−1.3%), while the Middle
24th June, 25
Mortgage Rates Lowest Since April
Yesterday saw mortgage rates fall to the best levels since early May. Now, today, we'd have to go all the way back to the end of April to find anything lower. Are the changes massive? Not by a long shot, but it sounds/looks that much better hear/read. This wasn't destined to be the case today. The underlying bond market actually began the day in a stance that would have kept rates sideways or just a hair higher. But after the morning's economic data and Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony, bonds improved and the average mortgage lender was able to offer a
Mortgage Rates Lowest Since April
Yesterday saw mortgage rates fall to the best levels since early May. Now, today, we'd have to go all the way back to the end of April to find anything lower. Are the changes massive? Not by a long shot, but it sounds/looks that much better hear/read. This wasn't destined to be the case today. The underlying bond market actually began the day in a stance that would have kept rates sideways or just a hair higher. But after the morning's economic data and Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony, bonds improved and the average mortgage lender was able to offer a
24th June, 25
SOC, Warehouse, Legal Guidance Tools; Webinar on Comp; LOs as Financial Advisors; Rates Rangebound
Residential business is coming through in dribs and drabs for many lenders, but that doesn’t stop all the random news out there. To no one’s surprise, Compass is suing Zillow, the owner of Zillow Home Loans which has seen its volumes expanding nicely as of late. The inventory crunch is definitely behind us, as evidenced by Lennar (home of MBA Chair Laura Escobar) seeing its average sale price drop 8.6 percent. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act (H.R. 2808). It will be matched up with the Senate’s version to iron out any differences, and then
SOC, Warehouse, Legal Guidance Tools; Webinar on Comp; LOs as Financial Advisors; Rates Rangebound
Residential business is coming through in dribs and drabs for many lenders, but that doesn’t stop all the random news out there. To no one’s surprise, Compass is suing Zillow, the owner of Zillow Home Loans which has seen its volumes expanding nicely as of late. The inventory crunch is definitely behind us, as evidenced by Lennar (home of MBA Chair Laura Escobar) seeing its average sale price drop 8.6 percent. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act (H.R. 2808). It will be matched up with the Senate’s version to iron out any differences, and then
24th June, 25
Rally Continues as Powell Shows a Path to Rate Cuts
Powell's prepared remarks and Q&A at today's congressional testimony are showing the market a clearer path to the possibility of rate cuts in the near future. While Powell certainly stopped short of echoing the more dovish tones of Waller and Bowman, this is a softer side of Powell that we haven't seen this clearly in recent speeches. Long story short, Powell is expecting tariffs to show up in data in June, and if they don't, it sounds like he, too, could be open to cutting as soon as July.
Rally Continues as Powell Shows a Path to Rate Cuts
Powell's prepared remarks and Q&A at today's congressional testimony are showing the market a clearer path to the possibility of rate cuts in the near future. While Powell certainly stopped short of echoing the more dovish tones of Waller and Bowman, this is a softer side of Powell that we haven't seen this clearly in recent speeches. Long story short, Powell is expecting tariffs to show up in data in June, and if they don't, it sounds like he, too, could be open to cutting as soon as July.
23rd June, 25
Best Closing Levels in More Than a Month
Best Closing Levels in More Than a Month Don't look now, but rates just inched their way down to the best levels since the first week of May. It's probably NOT fair to credit geopolitical developments for the bond market improvement. While those developments arguably had an impact at times during the day, they were also arguably a zero sum game by the end of the day (due to a rapid de-escalation of armed conflict). What's left over is the improvement seen earlier in the day due to the shift in Fed Funds Rate expectations after comments from Bowman. This no doubt
Best Closing Levels in More Than a Month
Best Closing Levels in More Than a Month Don't look now, but rates just inched their way down to the best levels since the first week of May. It's probably NOT fair to credit geopolitical developments for the bond market improvement. While those developments arguably had an impact at times during the day, they were also arguably a zero sum game by the end of the day (due to a rapid de-escalation of armed conflict). What's left over is the improvement seen earlier in the day due to the shift in Fed Funds Rate expectations after comments from Bowman. This no doubt
Mortgage AgentGeoffrey AuLocation MarkhamLicense M13000993- 
