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8th July, 25
Correction Starting to Level Off?
Correction Starting to Level Off? Even though very little changed during the course of the trading day, one potentially important thing happened. Rather than start weaker and continue to lose ground throughout the session, bonds managed to stop the bleeding early and then push back toward unchanged levels by the end of the day. This is the kind of thing typically seen when a corrective trend is running out of steam in the short term. While this doesn't make the bond market immune from another motivation to sell, it suggests that the market is now open to suggestion from either bulls or
Correction Starting to Level Off?
Correction Starting to Level Off? Even though very little changed during the course of the trading day, one potentially important thing happened. Rather than start weaker and continue to lose ground throughout the session, bonds managed to stop the bleeding early and then push back toward unchanged levels by the end of the day. This is the kind of thing typically seen when a corrective trend is running out of steam in the short term. While this doesn't make the bond market immune from another motivation to sell, it suggests that the market is now open to suggestion from either bulls or
8th July, 25
Mortgage Rates Still Lower Than May/June Despite Drifting Higher
Bad news first: mortgage rates have been moving steadily higher in July with the average top tier 30yr fixed scenario rising from 6.67% to 6.81% in just 4 business days. This isn't an incredibly abrupt move, but it's slightly brisk compared to the average day of rate movement. The good news is twofold. First off, we often tend to see slightly brisk movement in the opposite direction after experiencing a consistent trend in the other direction. The month of June was arguably such a trend, and it took rates to their lowest levels in several months. Secondly, and more simply, apart
Mortgage Rates Still Lower Than May/June Despite Drifting Higher
Bad news first: mortgage rates have been moving steadily higher in July with the average top tier 30yr fixed scenario rising from 6.67% to 6.81% in just 4 business days. This isn't an incredibly abrupt move, but it's slightly brisk compared to the average day of rate movement. The good news is twofold. First off, we often tend to see slightly brisk movement in the opposite direction after experiencing a consistent trend in the other direction. The month of June was arguably such a trend, and it took rates to their lowest levels in several months. Secondly, and more simply, apart
8th July, 25
MSR Exchange, DSCR, DPA/Energy, Automated Bank Statement Analysis; LO Comp Changes
We’re in the summer travel season. TSA will be eliminating its “shoes off” policy, and many will be sampling today’s rollout of Spicy McMuffin breakfast sandwiches at Mickey D’s. My cat Myrtle was never a fan of the TSA, believing, perhaps, given her cynical nature, that their staff was filled with Walmart security guard rejects. (Did you know that you can opt out of the TSA taking your photograph every time you go through security, with no consequences? You should.) If you travel to Washington, D.C., know that a) there are periods between the D and the C, and b) Fed Chair Jerome
MSR Exchange, DSCR, DPA/Energy, Automated Bank Statement Analysis; LO Comp Changes
We’re in the summer travel season. TSA will be eliminating its “shoes off” policy, and many will be sampling today’s rollout of Spicy McMuffin breakfast sandwiches at Mickey D’s. My cat Myrtle was never a fan of the TSA, believing, perhaps, given her cynical nature, that their staff was filled with Walmart security guard rejects. (Did you know that you can opt out of the TSA taking your photograph every time you go through security, with no consequences? You should.) If you travel to Washington, D.C., know that a) there are periods between the D and the C, and b) Fed Chair Jerome
8th July, 25
Heads: They Win. Tails: You Lose
Amid a complete absence of actionable economic data in the new week, stocks and bonds have been left to focus on new developments on the tariff front. It seems like only yesterday that the "90 day pause" went into effect and now, here we are 89 days later with some last-minute edits to the plan. Monday's news involved letters to multiple trade partners announcing new tariff rates effective August 1st--basically a threat to make a deal or else. The more formal nature of the letters (as opposed to social media announcements) got the market's attention despite general tariff fatigue. At the
Heads: They Win. Tails: You Lose
Amid a complete absence of actionable economic data in the new week, stocks and bonds have been left to focus on new developments on the tariff front. It seems like only yesterday that the "90 day pause" went into effect and now, here we are 89 days later with some last-minute edits to the plan. Monday's news involved letters to multiple trade partners announcing new tariff rates effective August 1st--basically a threat to make a deal or else. The more formal nature of the letters (as opposed to social media announcements) got the market's attention despite general tariff fatigue. At the
7th July, 25
Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements
Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements Bonds were moderately weaker to start the day and continued losing ground in the AM hours. Just after noon, new tariff announcements caused a surge of selling in stocks. There was initially some buying in bonds, but not much, and not for long. Tariffs are a double-edge sword for bonds, as we've seen on several occasions over the past few months and today's version was well balanced, ultimately leaving 10yr yields at similar levels before and after the news. Today's weakness adds to the multi-day correction that began last Wednesday and
Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements
Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements Bonds were moderately weaker to start the day and continued losing ground in the AM hours. Just after noon, new tariff announcements caused a surge of selling in stocks. There was initially some buying in bonds, but not much, and not for long. Tariffs are a double-edge sword for bonds, as we've seen on several occasions over the past few months and today's version was well balanced, ultimately leaving 10yr yields at similar levels before and after the news. Today's weakness adds to the multi-day correction that began last Wednesday and
7th July, 25
Mortgage Rates Continue Higher For Third Straight Day
For the entire 2nd half of June, it was easy to be spoiled by the absence of volatility in mortgage rates. During that time, rates were either lower or unchanged every single day. The past few business days have been a different story. This began last Wednesday as the bond market began a small correction ahead of Thursday's big jobs report. A correction is a normal occurrence that often follows an extended run in either direction. They can be as short as a single day or they can mark bigger picture turning points. We'll never know if last week's correction would have been a one day
Mortgage Rates Continue Higher For Third Straight Day
For the entire 2nd half of June, it was easy to be spoiled by the absence of volatility in mortgage rates. During that time, rates were either lower or unchanged every single day. The past few business days have been a different story. This began last Wednesday as the bond market began a small correction ahead of Thursday's big jobs report. A correction is a normal occurrence that often follows an extended run in either direction. They can be as short as a single day or they can mark bigger picture turning points. We'll never know if last week's correction would have been a one day
7th July, 25
Fee Collection, HELOC Products; Webinars and Training This Week; Disaster and FEMA Updates
The nation is gripped with the flooding in Texas, the loss of human life and property, and how best to prevent future similar occurrences given the increase in the severity of weather. (Fairway Independent has already donated $1 million to recovery efforts.) Texas is one of the leading models in the U.S. for growth and in lending. We’ve been saying that we have had a housing shortage for so long, in Texas and elsewhere, that any change to that narrative is almost ignored. Yet builders are having to cut prices to attract buyers, unsold inventory has moved higher, and homes are sitting with
Fee Collection, HELOC Products; Webinars and Training This Week; Disaster and FEMA Updates
The nation is gripped with the flooding in Texas, the loss of human life and property, and how best to prevent future similar occurrences given the increase in the severity of weather. (Fairway Independent has already donated $1 million to recovery efforts.) Texas is one of the leading models in the U.S. for growth and in lending. We’ve been saying that we have had a housing shortage for so long, in Texas and elsewhere, that any change to that narrative is almost ignored. Yet builders are having to cut prices to attract buyers, unsold inventory has moved higher, and homes are sitting with
7th July, 25
Slow Start; Light Calendar This Week
Fresh off the rally reversal courtesy of last week's jobs report, the bond market now finds itself in a virtually data-free week with little else to inspire big departures from prevailing levels. From last Thursday's early close, there's been remarkably little movement so far. This is all the more notable given the fact that Thursday was the heaviest day of selling in several weeks, arguably ending the rally trend from the 2nd half of June. It's always possible that unexpected developments will stir things up, but for now, the most obvious flashpoint on the horizon is next week's CPI
Slow Start; Light Calendar This Week
Fresh off the rally reversal courtesy of last week's jobs report, the bond market now finds itself in a virtually data-free week with little else to inspire big departures from prevailing levels. From last Thursday's early close, there's been remarkably little movement so far. This is all the more notable given the fact that Thursday was the heaviest day of selling in several weeks, arguably ending the rally trend from the 2nd half of June. It's always possible that unexpected developments will stir things up, but for now, the most obvious flashpoint on the horizon is next week's CPI
3rd July, 25
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform Today's jobs report would have been bad for rates if it was even in line with expectations. After it came out stronger than expected (especially in terms of the unemployment rate at 4.1 vs 4.3 f'cast), it was off to the races for bond sellers. The short end of the yield curve has the most in common with Fed rate expectations, so it took the most damage, but MBS fared far better. Perhaps that has something to do with the government not issuing MBS to fund the just-passed spending bill or perhaps it is a nod to next week's uncertain
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform Today's jobs report would have been bad for rates if it was even in line with expectations. After it came out stronger than expected (especially in terms of the unemployment rate at 4.1 vs 4.3 f'cast), it was off to the races for bond sellers. The short end of the yield curve has the most in common with Fed rate expectations, so it took the most damage, but MBS fared far better. Perhaps that has something to do with the government not issuing MBS to fund the just-passed spending bill or perhaps it is a nod to next week's uncertain
3rd July, 25
Mortgage Rates Rose Less Than Expected After Employment Data
Today brought the hotly anticipated jobs report. This is the "official" job count and unemployment rate data for the U.S. and no other report has as much consistent power to cause volatility in the rate market. Today's was particularly important because a perpetually decent labor market is the main justification for the Fed to wait and see if tariffs have an impact on inflation before proceeding with additional rate cuts. In other words, if unemployment were rising, the Fed would be cutting rates. Not only did today's report show no rise in unemployment, there was actually a
Mortgage Rates Rose Less Than Expected After Employment Data
Today brought the hotly anticipated jobs report. This is the "official" job count and unemployment rate data for the U.S. and no other report has as much consistent power to cause volatility in the rate market. Today's was particularly important because a perpetually decent labor market is the main justification for the Fed to wait and see if tariffs have an impact on inflation before proceeding with additional rate cuts. In other words, if unemployment were rising, the Fed would be cutting rates. Not only did today's report show no rise in unemployment, there was actually a
Mortgage AgentIshrat ButtManaging DirectorLocation PickeringLicense M11001531- 
