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12th August, 25
Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data
Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data Right at the 8:30am release time, bonds rallied on core CPI almost perfectly hitting unrounded forecasts (.32 vs .31). Additionally, the 2.7% vs 2.8% annual headline number was another step in the right direction. As markets digested the internals, the "yeah but" trading emerged. "Yeah buts" included supercore CPI (core services excluding housing) rising to 0.481 vs 0.212 month-over-month and evidence of the tariff impact via the highest annual core goods inflation since June 2023. So on one hand, declines in housing
Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data
Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data Right at the 8:30am release time, bonds rallied on core CPI almost perfectly hitting unrounded forecasts (.32 vs .31). Additionally, the 2.7% vs 2.8% annual headline number was another step in the right direction. As markets digested the internals, the "yeah but" trading emerged. "Yeah buts" included supercore CPI (core services excluding housing) rising to 0.481 vs 0.212 month-over-month and evidence of the tariff impact via the highest annual core goods inflation since June 2023. So on one hand, declines in housing
12th August, 25
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Key Inflation Report
Pundits, politicians, and everyone else can continue to assume that mortgage rates will respond to changes to the Fed Funds Rate. Meanwhile the bonds that actually dictate mortgage pricing will continue responding to the most important economic reports. The two biggest examples are the monthly jobs report and today's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). To be fair to those who are overly-focused on the Fed, there is a correlation between this data and the Fed's decision-making process. In other words, today's rates were at risk of moving higher or lower for the same reasons that
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Key Inflation Report
Pundits, politicians, and everyone else can continue to assume that mortgage rates will respond to changes to the Fed Funds Rate. Meanwhile the bonds that actually dictate mortgage pricing will continue responding to the most important economic reports. The two biggest examples are the monthly jobs report and today's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). To be fair to those who are overly-focused on the Fed, there is a correlation between this data and the Fed's decision-making process. In other words, today's rates were at risk of moving higher or lower for the same reasons that
12th August, 25
Variable Rate HELOC, Fraud, Marketing Tools; Educate Your Borrowers; Inflation Data as Expected
“Nothing refreshes my memory about what I need at the grocery store like coming home from the grocery store.” Remember adjustable-rate mortgages? Here at the California MBA’s Western Secondary, talk in the hallways is about memories of how, in the past, just because the Fed changes short-term rates doesn’t mean long-term rates move. Put another way, short-term rates impacting adjustable-rate mortgages may improve while 30-year mortgage rates barely budge. It will be one of the topics in today’s episode of Capital Markets Wrap at 3PM ET. The panel delves into the increase in ARM
Variable Rate HELOC, Fraud, Marketing Tools; Educate Your Borrowers; Inflation Data as Expected
“Nothing refreshes my memory about what I need at the grocery store like coming home from the grocery store.” Remember adjustable-rate mortgages? Here at the California MBA’s Western Secondary, talk in the hallways is about memories of how, in the past, just because the Fed changes short-term rates doesn’t mean long-term rates move. Put another way, short-term rates impacting adjustable-rate mortgages may improve while 30-year mortgage rates barely budge. It will be one of the topics in today’s episode of Capital Markets Wrap at 3PM ET. The panel delves into the increase in ARM
12th August, 25
Mixed Reaction Thanks to Messy Internal CPI Components
There's something for everyone in this morning's CPI data. The monthly headline was on target at 0.2 vs 0.2. Same story for the core at 0.3 vs 0.3. Bonds are just a hair stronger, but it's hard to make a case that they should be based on other internals: The unrounded monthly core was 0.322 versus the median big bank forecast at 0.31 Supercore (core CPI excluding housing) was 0.481 vs 0.212 previously Core goods (tariff sensitive) is now 1.2% year over year - highest since June 2023 All these bullet points argue for bonds to be selling off today and likely justify the backpedaling in the
Mixed Reaction Thanks to Messy Internal CPI Components
There's something for everyone in this morning's CPI data. The monthly headline was on target at 0.2 vs 0.2. Same story for the core at 0.3 vs 0.3. Bonds are just a hair stronger, but it's hard to make a case that they should be based on other internals: The unrounded monthly core was 0.322 versus the median big bank forecast at 0.31 Supercore (core CPI excluding housing) was 0.481 vs 0.212 previously Core goods (tariff sensitive) is now 1.2% year over year - highest since June 2023 All these bullet points argue for bonds to be selling off today and likely justify the backpedaling in the
11th August, 25
Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI
Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI Treasuries outperformed MBS just slightly today, but both were close enough to unchanged to argue against any excess analytical effort. In general, bonds took their last major cue from the jobs report earlier in the month and have been mostly sideways since then. That brings us to Tuesday morning's CPI which is the only true top tier data of the week and the only report that can occasionally hold a candle to the jobs report in terms of volatility potential. As with last month, the headline numbers don't necessarily tell the story. Traders will quickly be
Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI
Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI Treasuries outperformed MBS just slightly today, but both were close enough to unchanged to argue against any excess analytical effort. In general, bonds took their last major cue from the jobs report earlier in the month and have been mostly sideways since then. That brings us to Tuesday morning's CPI which is the only true top tier data of the week and the only report that can occasionally hold a candle to the jobs report in terms of volatility potential. As with last month, the headline numbers don't necessarily tell the story. Traders will quickly be
11th August, 25
Mortgage Rates Steady Ahead of High Stakes Inflation Report
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate held exceptionally steady last week after moving just a bit lower over the weekend. By comparison, today's rates are much closer to Friday's latest levels and still very close to the lowest we've seen since October, 2024. If the two key economic considerations for interest rates are jobs and inflation, the two key economic reports are the jobs report seen earlier this month and the Consumer Price Index which comes out tomorrow morning. It's often repeated that the PCE Price Index is a preferable gauge of inflation, but CPI comes out 2 weeks earlier
Mortgage Rates Steady Ahead of High Stakes Inflation Report
The average top tier 30yr fixed rate held exceptionally steady last week after moving just a bit lower over the weekend. By comparison, today's rates are much closer to Friday's latest levels and still very close to the lowest we've seen since October, 2024. If the two key economic considerations for interest rates are jobs and inflation, the two key economic reports are the jobs report seen earlier this month and the Consumer Price Index which comes out tomorrow morning. It's often repeated that the PCE Price Index is a preferable gauge of inflation, but CPI comes out 2 weeks earlier
11th August, 25
Non-Del, Compliance, 5/1 ARM, Digital Asset Regulation; FHA, VA, USDA News
About 25 miles to the north of the California MBA’s Western Secondary, a mobile robotic microfactory is building fire-resistant homes in Palisades Fire burn zone. The repercussions of disasters is certainly a topic here in the hallways here at the conference, along with the eventual fate of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (which may include merging them… follow the money: both have enormous backing from hedge fund investors, so much of the proceeds of a stock offering would go to wealthy financial backers, not taxpayers). Tech is also always a topic… AI in the capital markets? Yup: Sun West
Non-Del, Compliance, 5/1 ARM, Digital Asset Regulation; FHA, VA, USDA News
About 25 miles to the north of the California MBA’s Western Secondary, a mobile robotic microfactory is building fire-resistant homes in Palisades Fire burn zone. The repercussions of disasters is certainly a topic here in the hallways here at the conference, along with the eventual fate of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (which may include merging them… follow the money: both have enormous backing from hedge fund investors, so much of the proceeds of a stock offering would go to wealthy financial backers, not taxpayers). Tech is also always a topic… AI in the capital markets? Yup: Sun West
11th August, 25
Another Slow Start, But Probably Not a Slow Week
July represents the core of the summertime lull in financial markets. June and August are typically part of the lull unless econ data is suggesting an imminent shift in Fed policy. This is so well understood that back in May 2013, Kevin Brady famously asked Ben Bernanke if QE tapering could start before Labor Day. It was an odd question to anyone who didn't understand just how tuned out politicians and market participants can be during these months. Data-free Monday mornings during these months aren't necessarily forbidden from showing some volatility, but a flat trajectory is the
Another Slow Start, But Probably Not a Slow Week
July represents the core of the summertime lull in financial markets. June and August are typically part of the lull unless econ data is suggesting an imminent shift in Fed policy. This is so well understood that back in May 2013, Kevin Brady famously asked Ben Bernanke if QE tapering could start before Labor Day. It was an odd question to anyone who didn't understand just how tuned out politicians and market participants can be during these months. Data-free Monday mornings during these months aren't necessarily forbidden from showing some volatility, but a flat trajectory is the
8th August, 25
Focus Shifts to Next Week's High Stakes CPI
Focus Shifts to Next Week's High Stakes CPI Bonds lost ground at the fastest pace of the week on Friday, but even that ended up being insignificant in the bigger picture. The bottom line is that this week's trading helped solidify and consolidate the gains seen after last week's jobs report. With nothing of note on tap today, focus quickly shifted to the risks/opportunities inherent in next Tuesday's CPI report--one of two key players when it comes to determining the next big move for rates (the other being the next jobs report in early September). Higher inflation would suggest bonds erase
Focus Shifts to Next Week's High Stakes CPI
Focus Shifts to Next Week's High Stakes CPI Bonds lost ground at the fastest pace of the week on Friday, but even that ended up being insignificant in the bigger picture. The bottom line is that this week's trading helped solidify and consolidate the gains seen after last week's jobs report. With nothing of note on tap today, focus quickly shifted to the risks/opportunities inherent in next Tuesday's CPI report--one of two key players when it comes to determining the next big move for rates (the other being the next jobs report in early September). Higher inflation would suggest bonds erase
8th August, 25
Mortgage Rates Flat Ahead of Next Week’s High-Stakes Data
Mortgage rates finally moved in a slightly more noticeable direction today, but the change was still inconsequential in the bigger picture. The average 30yr fixed rate in our index edged up a mere 2 hundredths of a percent from 6.55% to 6.57%, exactly matching the levels seen on August 6th. This leaves rates in the same low range they’ve occupied all week. This week’s stability follows last Friday’s jobs report, which pushed bond yields—and by extension, rates—sharply lower. Since then, daily market movements have been too small to force meaningful lender changes. Even with today’s
Mortgage Rates Flat Ahead of Next Week’s High-Stakes Data
Mortgage rates finally moved in a slightly more noticeable direction today, but the change was still inconsequential in the bigger picture. The average 30yr fixed rate in our index edged up a mere 2 hundredths of a percent from 6.55% to 6.57%, exactly matching the levels seen on August 6th. This leaves rates in the same low range they’ve occupied all week. This week’s stability follows last Friday’s jobs report, which pushed bond yields—and by extension, rates—sharply lower. Since then, daily market movements have been too small to force meaningful lender changes. Even with today’s
Mortgage AgentKashif AbbasLocation MiltonLicense M21000066- 
