Latest news
11th July, 25
Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact
Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact Stocks sold off quickly in the overnight session in response to the announcement of 35% tariffs on Canada. Bonds view such news as a double edged sword, but also drifted into weaker and weaker territory as the day progressed. Given that yields remained inside the week's range, we're more inclined to view this as an acceptable sideways drift ahead of big ticket data event: Tuesday's CPI report. It goes without saying that some of the market will have to be surprised by the outcome which either will or will not show that tariffs have begun impacted the data in
Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact
Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact Stocks sold off quickly in the overnight session in response to the announcement of 35% tariffs on Canada. Bonds view such news as a double edged sword, but also drifted into weaker and weaker territory as the day progressed. Given that yields remained inside the week's range, we're more inclined to view this as an acceptable sideways drift ahead of big ticket data event: Tuesday's CPI report. It goes without saying that some of the market will have to be surprised by the outcome which either will or will not show that tariffs have begun impacted the data in
11th July, 25
Highest Mortgage Rates of The Week, Just Barely
Yesterday, we characterized the prevailing mortgage rate momentum as "broadly sideways," and while that's still very true in the bigger picture, words like "up" and "higher" might need to be sprinkled in this week. For those with a glass-half-empty approach, today's rates are the highest of the week and the highest since June 24th. For the optimists (and, in our view, the pragmatists), today's rates are virtually identical to those seen on Tuesday. Specifically, our 30yr fixed rate index is only 0.01% higher today--the smallest possible change. Motivation for movement in rates and
Highest Mortgage Rates of The Week, Just Barely
Yesterday, we characterized the prevailing mortgage rate momentum as "broadly sideways," and while that's still very true in the bigger picture, words like "up" and "higher" might need to be sprinkled in this week. For those with a glass-half-empty approach, today's rates are the highest of the week and the highest since June 24th. For the optimists (and, in our view, the pragmatists), today's rates are virtually identical to those seen on Tuesday. Specifically, our 30yr fixed rate index is only 0.01% higher today--the smallest possible change. Motivation for movement in rates and
11th July, 25
AI Retention, Jumbo AUS, Bridge, HELOC Products; Wholesale and Investor News
Don’t forget to snag your free Slurpee today at participating 7-Elevens! Speaking of edible things, I like my Frosted Flakes, Froot Loops, and Raisin Bran. M&A is not confined to lenders: Imagine my surprise when I learned that Michigan's WK Kellogg Co. is set to be acquired by the Italian candymaker behind Ferrero Rocher in a nearly $3 billion deal. Sometimes it is hard to track who’s doing what, and how it impacts us, which is why STRATMOR’s latest write up is titled, “The Tax and Spending Bill: The Impact on Borrowers.” Tracking locks is important: the locks that Optimal Blue
AI Retention, Jumbo AUS, Bridge, HELOC Products; Wholesale and Investor News
Don’t forget to snag your free Slurpee today at participating 7-Elevens! Speaking of edible things, I like my Frosted Flakes, Froot Loops, and Raisin Bran. M&A is not confined to lenders: Imagine my surprise when I learned that Michigan's WK Kellogg Co. is set to be acquired by the Italian candymaker behind Ferrero Rocher in a nearly $3 billion deal. Sometimes it is hard to track who’s doing what, and how it impacts us, which is why STRATMOR’s latest write up is titled, “The Tax and Spending Bill: The Impact on Borrowers.” Tracking locks is important: the locks that Optimal Blue
11th July, 25
Overnight Selling But Still in The Range
In terms of news that seems like it should be important, the biggest overnight development was the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st (up from the previously-slated 25%). Exemptions for USMCA goods and energy/fertilizer are probable, but TBD. And of course, it's also possible the deal will change again before August 1st. Nonetheless, when it comes to a top tier trading partner, any durable increase in tariffs is a concern for the bond market from an inflation standpoint. Both stocks and bonds lost ground overnight with 10yr yields pushing up toward (but not
Overnight Selling But Still in The Range
In terms of news that seems like it should be important, the biggest overnight development was the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st (up from the previously-slated 25%). Exemptions for USMCA goods and energy/fertilizer are probable, but TBD. And of course, it's also possible the deal will change again before August 1st. Nonetheless, when it comes to a top tier trading partner, any durable increase in tariffs is a concern for the bond market from an inflation standpoint. Both stocks and bonds lost ground overnight with 10yr yields pushing up toward (but not
10th July, 25
Fed Speakers and Auction Help Bonds Hold Steady
Fed Speakers and Auction Help Bonds Hold Steady Bonds technically lost a small amount of ground today, but it's just as fair to say that they're holding steady on the week. In fact, closing yields today were right in line with last Thursday's closing levels. This might not have been the case if not for today's Fed speakers--several of whom reiterated dovish messages about being able to cut sooner rather than later. Other comments reiterated the notion that tariff-driven inflation should start to show up in next week's data (further increasing the stakes for CPI). The Treasury
Fed Speakers and Auction Help Bonds Hold Steady
Fed Speakers and Auction Help Bonds Hold Steady Bonds technically lost a small amount of ground today, but it's just as fair to say that they're holding steady on the week. In fact, closing yields today were right in line with last Thursday's closing levels. This might not have been the case if not for today's Fed speakers--several of whom reiterated dovish messages about being able to cut sooner rather than later. Other comments reiterated the notion that tariff-driven inflation should start to show up in next week's data (further increasing the stakes for CPI). The Treasury
10th July, 25
Mortgage Rates Broadly Sideways
Most of this week's mortgage rate movement has been an aftershock following last week's jobs report. That data sent rates quickly higher and that momentum has gradually faded over the past few days. In fact, yesterday finally saw an improvement. Now today, things are minimally changed, depending on the lender. Most lenders issued at least one mid-day change yesterday as the bond market improved. Those lenders are sideways to slightly higher today, but not enough for the average loan quote to be detectably different from yesterday. In a slightly broader context, rates are
Mortgage Rates Broadly Sideways
Most of this week's mortgage rate movement has been an aftershock following last week's jobs report. That data sent rates quickly higher and that momentum has gradually faded over the past few days. In fact, yesterday finally saw an improvement. Now today, things are minimally changed, depending on the lender. Most lenders issued at least one mid-day change yesterday as the bond market improved. Those lenders are sideways to slightly higher today, but not enough for the average loan quote to be detectably different from yesterday. In a slightly broader context, rates are
10th July, 25
Hedging, Fraud Protection, QC Products; FHA, USDA Program Changes; Interview With Pennymac's Kim Nichols
Lenders and servicers have entire sets of policies and procedures based on the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) declaring an emergency in a given area. President Trump says FEMA should be eliminated, which would definitely impact this process. Texas officials weren’t fans of FEMA until they needed it. Unfortunately, FEMA has become politicized. Generally, how does politics work, regardless of political party? President Trump’s spending bill passage was in trouble, and it needed Alaska Senator Murkowski’s vote. And that is how 150 Eskimo whalers saw a fivefold increase in the
Hedging, Fraud Protection, QC Products; FHA, USDA Program Changes; Interview With Pennymac's Kim Nichols
Lenders and servicers have entire sets of policies and procedures based on the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) declaring an emergency in a given area. President Trump says FEMA should be eliminated, which would definitely impact this process. Texas officials weren’t fans of FEMA until they needed it. Unfortunately, FEMA has become politicized. Generally, how does politics work, regardless of political party? President Trump’s spending bill passage was in trouble, and it needed Alaska Senator Murkowski’s vote. And that is how 150 Eskimo whalers saw a fivefold increase in the
10th July, 25
Week's Only Relevant Data is Not Bond-Friendly
You would be hard pressed to find a week with less to offer in terms of scheduled economic data. In fact, it's not an overstatement to say that regular old weekly jobless claims data was the only relevant report of the week. Unfortunately for fans of low rates, it's not showing any signs of cracks in the labor market (227k vs 235k f'cast). Continuing Claims, while still elevated, also managed to remain below the longer term highs from 3 weeks ago. There hasn't been a huge reaction in the bond market, but perhaps enough to say that we're now in modestly weaker territory instead of being
Week's Only Relevant Data is Not Bond-Friendly
You would be hard pressed to find a week with less to offer in terms of scheduled economic data. In fact, it's not an overstatement to say that regular old weekly jobless claims data was the only relevant report of the week. Unfortunately for fans of low rates, it's not showing any signs of cracks in the labor market (227k vs 235k f'cast). Continuing Claims, while still elevated, also managed to remain below the longer term highs from 3 weeks ago. There hasn't been a huge reaction in the bond market, but perhaps enough to say that we're now in modestly weaker territory instead of being
9th July, 25
Correction to the Correction. Will it Last?
Correction to the Correction. Will it Last? Hindsight is 20/20 and foresight may have been close enough this week given the classic correction to June's rally giving way to a classic correction of that correction as early as Tuesday afternoon. It wasn't really until Wednesday that bond traders really showed their cards, buying early and often--well in advance of the afternoon's 10yr Treasury auction or Fed Minutes. In fact, it's not clear that either of those events were necessary to today's victory although the auction certainly had a more measurable impact. Data remains scarce on
Correction to the Correction. Will it Last?
Correction to the Correction. Will it Last? Hindsight is 20/20 and foresight may have been close enough this week given the classic correction to June's rally giving way to a classic correction of that correction as early as Tuesday afternoon. It wasn't really until Wednesday that bond traders really showed their cards, buying early and often--well in advance of the afternoon's 10yr Treasury auction or Fed Minutes. In fact, it's not clear that either of those events were necessary to today's victory although the auction certainly had a more measurable impact. Data remains scarce on
9th July, 25
Mortgage Rate Losing Streak Ends With Moderate Victory
It's a bit of a stretch to refer to the past week as a "losing streak" for mortgage rates. The worst part about it was the consistency of upward movement starting last Wednesday. In terms of the size of that movement, things have been less traumatic considering the average lender was still at the lowest levels since early April with the exception of the past 2 weeks. Perhaps it would be better-described as a "non-winning streak." In any event, it's over. The underlying bond market was already showing signs that it was tired of pushing rates higher by yesterday afternoon. Now today
Mortgage Rate Losing Streak Ends With Moderate Victory
It's a bit of a stretch to refer to the past week as a "losing streak" for mortgage rates. The worst part about it was the consistency of upward movement starting last Wednesday. In terms of the size of that movement, things have been less traumatic considering the average lender was still at the lowest levels since early April with the exception of the past 2 weeks. Perhaps it would be better-described as a "non-winning streak." In any event, it's over. The underlying bond market was already showing signs that it was tired of pushing rates higher by yesterday afternoon. Now today
Mortgage AgentMehedi HassanLocation TorontoLicense M19002085- 
