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13th June, 25
Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness
Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness At first glance, with only one report on the calendar, it's only logical to give Consumer Sentiment credit for sparking today's bond market selling spree. Closer inspection adds nuance. First off, selling began in earnest at 8:20am--the unofficial opening bell for bond market trading and a time of day where inclined sellers/buyers are often lined up and waiting to trade accordingly. Then there's the fact that the post-data selling didn't begin until 6 minutes after the data--an odd eventuality given the tendency for reactions to be
Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness
Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness At first glance, with only one report on the calendar, it's only logical to give Consumer Sentiment credit for sparking today's bond market selling spree. Closer inspection adds nuance. First off, selling began in earnest at 8:20am--the unofficial opening bell for bond market trading and a time of day where inclined sellers/buyers are often lined up and waiting to trade accordingly. Then there's the fact that the post-data selling didn't begin until 6 minutes after the data--an odd eventuality given the tendency for reactions to be
13th June, 25
Mortgage Rates Bounce But Remain Lower on The Week
The top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate index rose 0.04% on Friday, which would be a medium-sized defeat in and of itself. In the broader context, however, it was an acceptable adjustment on what has otherwise been a solid week. Specifically, today's rates are still 0.08% lower than last Friday's. There were no standout individual sources of inspiration today. Keen observers may note that today's Consumer Sentiment data seemed to coincide with mid-day upward pressure in rates, but that was a bit deceptive. The upward pressure began in earnest at 8:20am ET, which is essentially the
Mortgage Rates Bounce But Remain Lower on The Week
The top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate index rose 0.04% on Friday, which would be a medium-sized defeat in and of itself. In the broader context, however, it was an acceptable adjustment on what has otherwise been a solid week. Specifically, today's rates are still 0.08% lower than last Friday's. There were no standout individual sources of inspiration today. Keen observers may note that today's Consumer Sentiment data seemed to coincide with mid-day upward pressure in rates, but that was a bit deceptive. The upward pressure began in earnest at 8:20am ET, which is essentially the
13th June, 25
Purchase Demand Near 2 Year Highs; Refis Bounce Back
After a Memorial Day-induced lull, mortgage application activity rebounded sharply last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. Both purchase and refinance demand climbed to their highest levels in over a month, with the composite index rising 12.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. “Coming out of the Memorial Day holiday, mortgage applications increased to the highest level in over a month, driven by growth in both purchase and refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite ongoing uncertainty
Purchase Demand Near 2 Year Highs; Refis Bounce Back
After a Memorial Day-induced lull, mortgage application activity rebounded sharply last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. Both purchase and refinance demand climbed to their highest levels in over a month, with the composite index rising 12.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. “Coming out of the Memorial Day holiday, mortgage applications increased to the highest level in over a month, driven by growth in both purchase and refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite ongoing uncertainty
13th June, 25
2nd Lien Reverse, Borrower Aid, Legal Counsel Products; FHA, USDA, VA Changes; FBC Rebrand
Hey, for you LOs who think things are slow, you can always go into golf. The best example of this is ex-LO Ben Griffin who has racked up $11 million in PGA winnings! A large number of professional athletes, active or retired, seem to live in Florida, Texas, or Arizona (taxes and climate being what they are). Of those, who suckles up to the federal government the most? As of 2022, federal funding made up 40% of overall revenue in nearly half of US states. Federal funding accounted for the greatest share of state revenue in Louisiana (50.5%), Alaska (50.2%), and Arizona (49.7%). By contrast, it
2nd Lien Reverse, Borrower Aid, Legal Counsel Products; FHA, USDA, VA Changes; FBC Rebrand
Hey, for you LOs who think things are slow, you can always go into golf. The best example of this is ex-LO Ben Griffin who has racked up $11 million in PGA winnings! A large number of professional athletes, active or retired, seem to live in Florida, Texas, or Arizona (taxes and climate being what they are). Of those, who suckles up to the federal government the most? As of 2022, federal funding made up 40% of overall revenue in nearly half of US states. Federal funding accounted for the greatest share of state revenue in Louisiana (50.5%), Alaska (50.2%), and Arizona (49.7%). By contrast, it
13th June, 25
Opening Weaker Despite Israel/Iran Headlines
By 8pm last night, news of Israel's attack on Iran erased an entire week of stock market gains and pushed bond yields to the lowest levels in more than a month. Given the alarming nature of some of the headlines, it's only natural to assume that markets were only getting started with the "risk-off" trading pattern. Natural, yes... but not necessarily logical. In fact, similar paradoxes are so prevalent that we have dedicated reminder to the topic: overnight trading makes no guarantees. Ultimately, with 10yr yields over 4.5% on Wednesday morning and under 4.40% right now, none of
Opening Weaker Despite Israel/Iran Headlines
By 8pm last night, news of Israel's attack on Iran erased an entire week of stock market gains and pushed bond yields to the lowest levels in more than a month. Given the alarming nature of some of the headlines, it's only natural to assume that markets were only getting started with the "risk-off" trading pattern. Natural, yes... but not necessarily logical. In fact, similar paradoxes are so prevalent that we have dedicated reminder to the topic: overnight trading makes no guarantees. Ultimately, with 10yr yields over 4.5% on Wednesday morning and under 4.40% right now, none of
12th June, 25
Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally
Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally Thursday's PPI was just as tame as Wednesday's CPI and, for a moment, it looked like bonds were going to offer an encore performance of the post-CPI rally. But in Thursday's case, bonds had already rallied nearly that much in the overnight session. We're inclined to view this through the lens of Thursday's data standing aside for the momentum created by Wednesday's data. In other words, CPI prompted a lead-off rally and PPI didn't push back in the other direction. We can also give some credit to Jobless Claims
Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally
Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally Thursday's PPI was just as tame as Wednesday's CPI and, for a moment, it looked like bonds were going to offer an encore performance of the post-CPI rally. But in Thursday's case, bonds had already rallied nearly that much in the overnight session. We're inclined to view this through the lens of Thursday's data standing aside for the momentum created by Wednesday's data. In other words, CPI prompted a lead-off rally and PPI didn't push back in the other direction. We can also give some credit to Jobless Claims
12th June, 25
Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than a Month
Mortgage rates being offered today are only a hair lower for the average lender than they were on June 4th, but June 4th was the best day since early May. In other words, today's average rate is the lowest in just over a month. This didn't happen by chance. The underlying bond market has been responding to economic data over the past two days. Yesterday's consumer-focused inflation data delivered most of the benefit. Today's producer-focused inflation data essentially stayed out of the way. The data has created some buzz regarding the Fed's rate cut outlook.
Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than a Month
Mortgage rates being offered today are only a hair lower for the average lender than they were on June 4th, but June 4th was the best day since early May. In other words, today's average rate is the lowest in just over a month. This didn't happen by chance. The underlying bond market has been responding to economic data over the past two days. Yesterday's consumer-focused inflation data delivered most of the benefit. Today's producer-focused inflation data essentially stayed out of the way. The data has created some buzz regarding the Fed's rate cut outlook.
12th June, 25
Correspondent, Jumbo, POS Tools; Fairway/Hallmark Deal; HELOC, 2nd, Non-QM News
“I was always a home builder, but lately I’ve developed an apartment complex.” Here in Florida, so many structures are made of stucco because stucco is fairly inexpensive, creates a great finished look, and is easy to apply to homes constructed with concrete blocks. But it can be damaged as a house shifts and settles over time. Companies like Icon, or COBOD International, are making news with their 3-D printed homes (and communities) that build houses layer by layer with cement-based material. But they have generated more headlines than buildings: “Building houses that work twice as
Correspondent, Jumbo, POS Tools; Fairway/Hallmark Deal; HELOC, 2nd, Non-QM News
“I was always a home builder, but lately I’ve developed an apartment complex.” Here in Florida, so many structures are made of stucco because stucco is fairly inexpensive, creates a great finished look, and is easy to apply to homes constructed with concrete blocks. But it can be damaged as a house shifts and settles over time. Companies like Icon, or COBOD International, are making news with their 3-D printed homes (and communities) that build houses layer by layer with cement-based material. But they have generated more headlines than buildings: “Building houses that work twice as
12th June, 25
Higher Bar For Additional Gains Despite Lower PPI
This morning's PPI did its best impression of yesterday's CPI with the core monthly number coming in at 0.1 vs 0.3 forecast. In yesterday's case, this was good enough for a reasonably big rally. Today, not so much. While bonds did manage to add to overnight gains in the immediate wake of the data, they're pushing back above pre-data yields now. The key difference between today and yesterday--and possibly the simplest explanation for the different outcome--is that today began with fairly big overnight rally whereas yesterday began with an overnight sell-off. In
Higher Bar For Additional Gains Despite Lower PPI
This morning's PPI did its best impression of yesterday's CPI with the core monthly number coming in at 0.1 vs 0.3 forecast. In yesterday's case, this was good enough for a reasonably big rally. Today, not so much. While bonds did manage to add to overnight gains in the immediate wake of the data, they're pushing back above pre-data yields now. The key difference between today and yesterday--and possibly the simplest explanation for the different outcome--is that today began with fairly big overnight rally whereas yesterday began with an overnight sell-off. In
11th June, 25
Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results
Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results Wednesday ended up being a straightforward session for bonds with a large CPI beat prompting a decently swift rally in the bond market. Shorter maturities did the best--also logical considering the proximity to the Fed Funds Rate and the fact that Fed rate expectations rallied 8+ bps. But longer maturities got a bit more love after a well-received 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm. Respectable results on a day where bonds are already rallying are all the more respectable. With that, bonds hit new low yields for the day (MBS hit new highs) and neither
Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results
Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results Wednesday ended up being a straightforward session for bonds with a large CPI beat prompting a decently swift rally in the bond market. Shorter maturities did the best--also logical considering the proximity to the Fed Funds Rate and the fact that Fed rate expectations rallied 8+ bps. But longer maturities got a bit more love after a well-received 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm. Respectable results on a day where bonds are already rallying are all the more respectable. With that, bonds hit new low yields for the day (MBS hit new highs) and neither
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