Latest news
18th July, 25
Needle Threaded. Now What?
Needle Threaded. Now What? As always, big-ticket data and/or news headlines have potential energy in terms of their impact on bonds/rates. For instance, this week's CPI could have caused a big move higher or lower. Same story with Trump/Powell headlines. Realized impacts of high-potential-energy events can vary quite a bit. All too often, separate considerations, data line-items, or headlines and subsequent retractions act as offsetting penalties that return the bond market to the original line of scrimmage. Such was the case this week and Friday didn't do anything to change
Needle Threaded. Now What?
Needle Threaded. Now What? As always, big-ticket data and/or news headlines have potential energy in terms of their impact on bonds/rates. For instance, this week's CPI could have caused a big move higher or lower. Same story with Trump/Powell headlines. Realized impacts of high-potential-energy events can vary quite a bit. All too often, separate considerations, data line-items, or headlines and subsequent retractions act as offsetting penalties that return the bond market to the original line of scrimmage. Such was the case this week and Friday didn't do anything to change
18th July, 25
Mortgage Rates Barely Budge Today and This Week
While any rate watcher's bingo card should always have a few squares devoted to "unchanged, flat, etc.," this week's had at least as many squares reserved for a big reaction to inflation data. Specifically, Tuesday's inflation data had the power to cause a big move in rates. While it was the week's biggest influence, rates actually managed to hold flat overall. Friday did very little to alter that reality. By Thursday, we were already back in line with last week's latest levels. Friday technically pushed our 30yr fixed index 0.01% lower, so it's a victory despite being the smallest
Mortgage Rates Barely Budge Today and This Week
While any rate watcher's bingo card should always have a few squares devoted to "unchanged, flat, etc.," this week's had at least as many squares reserved for a big reaction to inflation data. Specifically, Tuesday's inflation data had the power to cause a big move in rates. While it was the week's biggest influence, rates actually managed to hold flat overall. Friday did very little to alter that reality. By Thursday, we were already back in line with last week's latest levels. Friday technically pushed our 30yr fixed index 0.01% lower, so it's a victory despite being the smallest
18th July, 25
Rising Rates Hit Mortgage Apps, But Pace Remains Better Than 2024
Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as rates moved higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index fell 10.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 11, reversing much of the prior week’s gain. “Mortgage rates rose last week following higher Treasury yields, which weighed on both purchase and refinance demand,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Refinance activity declined, and purchase applications fell to their lowest level since May.” Refinance applications fell
Rising Rates Hit Mortgage Apps, But Pace Remains Better Than 2024
Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as rates moved higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index fell 10.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 11, reversing much of the prior week’s gain. “Mortgage rates rose last week following higher Treasury yields, which weighed on both purchase and refinance demand,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Refinance activity declined, and purchase applications fell to their lowest level since May.” Refinance applications fell
18th July, 25
Builder Outlook Ticks Up Despite More Price Cuts and Less Buyer Traffic
Builders are placing their better days in the future according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo's latest Housing Market Index (HMI). Buoyed by longer-run expectations, the headline builder confidence index rose one point to 33, but remained deep in pessimistic territory, marking the 15th consecutive month below the key threshold of 50. Underlying components of the index were mixed: Current sales conditions rose one point to 36 Sales expectations for the next 6 months climbed 3 points to 43 Buyer traffic slipped one point to 20 High mortgage rates,
Builder Outlook Ticks Up Despite More Price Cuts and Less Buyer Traffic
Builders are placing their better days in the future according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo's latest Housing Market Index (HMI). Buoyed by longer-run expectations, the headline builder confidence index rose one point to 33, but remained deep in pessimistic territory, marking the 15th consecutive month below the key threshold of 50. Underlying components of the index were mixed: Current sales conditions rose one point to 36 Sales expectations for the next 6 months climbed 3 points to 43 Buyer traffic slipped one point to 20 High mortgage rates,
18th July, 25
Builders Breaking More Ground, But Not on Single Family Homes
The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a mixed bag for June, with a modest gain in overall housing starts driven by a rebound in multifamily construction, while single-family activity continued to decline. Building permits were essentially flat, suggesting a pause in the momentum seen earlier this year. As usual, the market focuses most on building permits and housing starts, with the latter representing the beginning of actual construction activity. Total starts rose 5.2% to an annual pace of 1.321 million, up from a revised 1.256 million in May. The increase
Builders Breaking More Ground, But Not on Single Family Homes
The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a mixed bag for June, with a modest gain in overall housing starts driven by a rebound in multifamily construction, while single-family activity continued to decline. Building permits were essentially flat, suggesting a pause in the momentum seen earlier this year. As usual, the market focuses most on building permits and housing starts, with the latter representing the beginning of actual construction activity. Total starts rose 5.2% to an annual pace of 1.321 million, up from a revised 1.256 million in May. The increase
18th July, 25
Slow Green Friday
At the end of a week with a few big ticket economic reports and unexpected headline-induced volatility, who wouldn't like a break? Friday's calendar offers respite with only Consumer Sentiment and residential construction numbers. Neither are market movers. As such, because bonds were green overnight, they remain green as we head into the afternoon. If markets closed right now, we'd be perfectly unchanged on the week
Slow Green Friday
At the end of a week with a few big ticket economic reports and unexpected headline-induced volatility, who wouldn't like a break? Friday's calendar offers respite with only Consumer Sentiment and residential construction numbers. Neither are market movers. As such, because bonds were green overnight, they remain green as we head into the afternoon. If markets closed right now, we'd be perfectly unchanged on the week
18th July, 25
Broker, Warehouse, Valuation Tools; loanDepot's LO Comp Lawsuit; MBA's MAA Campaign
With all of this talk about replacing people in our biz, could this be a future mortgage banker’s conference? Delta is moving toward eliminating set prices in favor of AI that determines how much you personally will pay for an airline ticket. I received this note from an LO in Idaho. “Before we work on ‘artificial intelligence,’ why don’t we work on ‘natural stupidity?’” In this internet age, do you think you “own” things on the web? Facebook is asking to use Meta AI on photos in your camera roll that you haven't shared yet. How about your own face? Denmark is attempting to
Broker, Warehouse, Valuation Tools; loanDepot's LO Comp Lawsuit; MBA's MAA Campaign
With all of this talk about replacing people in our biz, could this be a future mortgage banker’s conference? Delta is moving toward eliminating set prices in favor of AI that determines how much you personally will pay for an airline ticket. I received this note from an LO in Idaho. “Before we work on ‘artificial intelligence,’ why don’t we work on ‘natural stupidity?’” In this internet age, do you think you “own” things on the web? Facebook is asking to use Meta AI on photos in your camera roll that you haven't shared yet. How about your own face? Denmark is attempting to
17th July, 25
Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data
Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data If you had to guess at the bond market's response this morning based solely on the outcome of the 8:30am economic data, you'd be very well justified in assuming some selling/weakness. While that may have been the case for a few moments, it was quickly replaced by bond buying as traders parsed the Retail Sales internals, revisions, and especially the inflation-adjusted spending implications. In a nutshell, the report showed an ongoing downtrend in discretionary consumer spending and that ended up being the trade of the day--even if it wasn't a super huge trade.
Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data
Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data If you had to guess at the bond market's response this morning based solely on the outcome of the 8:30am economic data, you'd be very well justified in assuming some selling/weakness. While that may have been the case for a few moments, it was quickly replaced by bond buying as traders parsed the Retail Sales internals, revisions, and especially the inflation-adjusted spending implications. In a nutshell, the report showed an ongoing downtrend in discretionary consumer spending and that ended up being the trade of the day--even if it wasn't a super huge trade.
17th July, 25
Mortgage Rates Staying Broadly Sideways
Despite all of the economic data and news headlines over the past few days, mortgage rates have barely budged since last Friday. That was not what we expected this week given the anticipation for the inflation reports that came out on Tuesday and Wednesday. Now today, a seemingly balmy Retail Sales report (something that would normally push rates higher) ended up being no big deal for the bond market that underlies mortgage rates. There's some rational justification for the paradox, however. After adjusting for inflation, the retail sales categories that speak to discretionary spending
Mortgage Rates Staying Broadly Sideways
Despite all of the economic data and news headlines over the past few days, mortgage rates have barely budged since last Friday. That was not what we expected this week given the anticipation for the inflation reports that came out on Tuesday and Wednesday. Now today, a seemingly balmy Retail Sales report (something that would normally push rates higher) ended up being no big deal for the bond market that underlies mortgage rates. There's some rational justification for the paradox, however. After adjusting for inflation, the retail sales categories that speak to discretionary spending
17th July, 25
HMDA Review, Corresp., Data Mining, Processing Tools; Agency Credit Scoring
“I forgot to put the seat belt on my five-year-old boy this morning and as we were leaving the trailer park, somebody shouted, ‘You're an irresponsible father!’ I yelled, “Who the hell said that?! Stop the car, son!’” Lenders know that not all manufactured homes are trailers, and in fact there are some great MHs out there. In a few weeks I head to Michigan for the MMLA conference. It turns out that that over 25 percent of manufactured homes in Michigan are owned by private equity or similar entities per the Private Equity Manufactured Housing Tracker. In 2020 and 2021, they
HMDA Review, Corresp., Data Mining, Processing Tools; Agency Credit Scoring
“I forgot to put the seat belt on my five-year-old boy this morning and as we were leaving the trailer park, somebody shouted, ‘You're an irresponsible father!’ I yelled, “Who the hell said that?! Stop the car, son!’” Lenders know that not all manufactured homes are trailers, and in fact there are some great MHs out there. In a few weeks I head to Michigan for the MMLA conference. It turns out that that over 25 percent of manufactured homes in Michigan are owned by private equity or similar entities per the Private Equity Manufactured Housing Tracker. In 2020 and 2021, they
Mortgage AgentSuli NiuLocation ManotickLicense M22004033- 
