Latest news
20th June, 25
Homebuilder Sentiment Just a Bit Gloomier
Builder sentiment declined for the second straight month according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo's latest Housing Market Index (HMI). The headline index dropped two points to 32 in June, marking another step down toward the post-pandemic lows seen in 2023. All three components of the index moved lower: Current sales conditions fell two points to 35 Sales expectations for the next 6 months dipped to 40 Buyer traffic dropped to 21 Persistent affordability challenges—namely high mortgage rates and tariff-related material costs—remain major headwinds. As
Homebuilder Sentiment Just a Bit Gloomier
Builder sentiment declined for the second straight month according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo's latest Housing Market Index (HMI). The headline index dropped two points to 32 in June, marking another step down toward the post-pandemic lows seen in 2023. All three components of the index moved lower: Current sales conditions fell two points to 35 Sales expectations for the next 6 months dipped to 40 Buyer traffic dropped to 21 Persistent affordability challenges—namely high mortgage rates and tariff-related material costs—remain major headwinds. As
20th June, 25
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady
With Thursday being a federal holiday, banks (and more importantly, the underlying market for mortgage related bonds) were closed. This means that lenders were not able to update mortgage rates. It turns out that it wouldn't have mattered either way as the average lender has barely budged from Wednesday's levels. But let's not miss an opportunity to deliver news that's technically good even if only just. Over the past 3 business days, average rates have fallen 0.05%. This keeps us close to the lowest levels seen since April 4th with top tier 30yr fixed scenarios
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady
With Thursday being a federal holiday, banks (and more importantly, the underlying market for mortgage related bonds) were closed. This means that lenders were not able to update mortgage rates. It turns out that it wouldn't have mattered either way as the average lender has barely budged from Wednesday's levels. But let's not miss an opportunity to deliver news that's technically good even if only just. Over the past 3 business days, average rates have fallen 0.05%. This keeps us close to the lowest levels seen since April 4th with top tier 30yr fixed scenarios
20th June, 25
Digital HELOC, Appraisal Review Products; Background AI; Hurricane Season is Here; Rates Holding Steady
Happy Summer Solstice, and happy 50th birthday to the movie Jaws. Back then, for security, all we had to remember was where we hid our house key, or the combo to the lock on our school locker. Now, our dozens of logins and passwords are regularly either forgotten or stolen, the latest being 16 billion credentials stolen, announced this week. In other IT news, a few CIOs have written to me to point out that Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” that the Senate is debating contains a 10-year moratorium on changes to state artificial intelligence (AI) laws. 10 years? Given the rate of change
Digital HELOC, Appraisal Review Products; Background AI; Hurricane Season is Here; Rates Holding Steady
Happy Summer Solstice, and happy 50th birthday to the movie Jaws. Back then, for security, all we had to remember was where we hid our house key, or the combo to the lock on our school locker. Now, our dozens of logins and passwords are regularly either forgotten or stolen, the latest being 16 billion credentials stolen, announced this week. In other IT news, a few CIOs have written to me to point out that Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” that the Senate is debating contains a 10-year moratorium on changes to state artificial intelligence (AI) laws. 10 years? Given the rate of change
20th June, 25
Unofficial 4 Day Weekend
Much like the Friday after Thanksgiving, we have to wonder what the point is of a trading session without any neighbors (there's actually some guiding principle in setting holiday closures that there should not ever be more than 2 consecutive weekday closures). Much of the market treats such Fridays as the unofficial second day of a 4 day weekend. While that's far less pronounced on a static date holiday like Juneteenth, the market is nonetheless trading in the same old range an in an increasingly narrow pattern to boot. It's safe to say that nothing that occurs inside the lines in the
Unofficial 4 Day Weekend
Much like the Friday after Thanksgiving, we have to wonder what the point is of a trading session without any neighbors (there's actually some guiding principle in setting holiday closures that there should not ever be more than 2 consecutive weekday closures). Much of the market treats such Fridays as the unofficial second day of a 4 day weekend. While that's far less pronounced on a static date holiday like Juneteenth, the market is nonetheless trading in the same old range an in an increasingly narrow pattern to boot. It's safe to say that nothing that occurs inside the lines in the
18th June, 25
Fed Threads Needle of Apathy
Fed Threads Needle of Apathy Today marked one of only 4 days of the year with an updated Fed dot plot. When it came out, there was a fairly pitiful volume response relative to other dot plot days and an even more underwhelming level of volatility in the bond market. It wasn't until almost 45 minutes later that bonds showed actual signs of life in response to Fed Chair Powell saying flat-out that they'll be able to make a better decision if they wait a couple of months. But even after that modest bounce in bond yields, we were just barely getting back to unchanged levels on the day.
Fed Threads Needle of Apathy
Fed Threads Needle of Apathy Today marked one of only 4 days of the year with an updated Fed dot plot. When it came out, there was a fairly pitiful volume response relative to other dot plot days and an even more underwhelming level of volatility in the bond market. It wasn't until almost 45 minutes later that bonds showed actual signs of life in response to Fed Chair Powell saying flat-out that they'll be able to make a better decision if they wait a couple of months. But even after that modest bounce in bond yields, we were just barely getting back to unchanged levels on the day.
18th June, 25
Remarkable Absence of Mortgage Rate Volatility
It happens, but it's rare. A Fed "dot plot" day has come and gone with mortgage rates almost perfectly unchanged from the previous day. This speaks to the level of indecision not only in the market, but also among Fed members. First off, what's a "dot plot day?" The dot plot (or simply, "the dots") refers to a chart/table in the Fed's economic projections that shows where each Fed member sees the Fed Funds Rate at the end of the next few years. These projections only come out on 4 of the 8 Fed days per year and they've grown to be a leading source of volatility for financial
Remarkable Absence of Mortgage Rate Volatility
It happens, but it's rare. A Fed "dot plot" day has come and gone with mortgage rates almost perfectly unchanged from the previous day. This speaks to the level of indecision not only in the market, but also among Fed members. First off, what's a "dot plot day?" The dot plot (or simply, "the dots") refers to a chart/table in the Fed's economic projections that shows where each Fed member sees the Fed Funds Rate at the end of the next few years. These projections only come out on 4 of the 8 Fed days per year and they've grown to be a leading source of volatility for financial
18th June, 25
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. diminished but remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. diminished but remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges
18th June, 25
HELOC, Marketing, Down Payment Products; STRATMOR Tech Survey; Compliance Based on Customer Expectations
Today we hear from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We can expect no change to overnight fed funds. As pointed yesterday by Dr. Paul Brewbaker, the economist who spoke here at the MBA Hawai’i conference, the Fed can only shoot at one target at a time: inflation or employment. They have to pick one and have picked inflation. So far so good. Besides that, he tore into tariffs, and their result on what individuals and countries do in response to them as evidenced by what happened during the first Trump Administration: China moving its manufacturing facilities to non-tariff countries to circumvent the
HELOC, Marketing, Down Payment Products; STRATMOR Tech Survey; Compliance Based on Customer Expectations
Today we hear from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We can expect no change to overnight fed funds. As pointed yesterday by Dr. Paul Brewbaker, the economist who spoke here at the MBA Hawai’i conference, the Fed can only shoot at one target at a time: inflation or employment. They have to pick one and have picked inflation. So far so good. Besides that, he tore into tariffs, and their result on what individuals and countries do in response to them as evidenced by what happened during the first Trump Administration: China moving its manufacturing facilities to non-tariff countries to circumvent the
18th June, 25
Once Again: Today is Not About a Fed Rate Cut
Fed day is here and there's a 0% chance of a rate cut. That's been the case for just over a month due a combination of April's jobs report and the stock market recovery in May (or the underlying events that helped facilitate it). In order to cut, the Fed would need to see the sort of deterioration in the labor market it saw in 2024 as well as the sort of progress it saw on inflation. The latter is possibly in play, but then there's the debate about whether or not new trade policies will cause a bit of upward pressure. Even without the complication of tariff uncertainty, note 2024's "
Once Again: Today is Not About a Fed Rate Cut
Fed day is here and there's a 0% chance of a rate cut. That's been the case for just over a month due a combination of April's jobs report and the stock market recovery in May (or the underlying events that helped facilitate it). In order to cut, the Fed would need to see the sort of deterioration in the labor market it saw in 2024 as well as the sort of progress it saw on inflation. The latter is possibly in play, but then there's the debate about whether or not new trade policies will cause a bit of upward pressure. Even without the complication of tariff uncertainty, note 2024's "
17th June, 25
Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement
Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement Bonds lost some ground after this morning's economic data, arguably in response to the Retail Sales control group beating its forecast. Higher-than-expected import prices could also have played a supporting role, but the selling was too modest to worry about perfectly allocating the blame. It was also erased by an afternoon rally that was best explained by general risk-off vibes surrounding geopolitical headlines. Here too, we're not seeing anything too compelling in terms of trading justification. The best bet on
Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement
Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement Bonds lost some ground after this morning's economic data, arguably in response to the Retail Sales control group beating its forecast. Higher-than-expected import prices could also have played a supporting role, but the selling was too modest to worry about perfectly allocating the blame. It was also erased by an afternoon rally that was best explained by general risk-off vibes surrounding geopolitical headlines. Here too, we're not seeing anything too compelling in terms of trading justification. The best bet on
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