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23rd July, 25
High Prices and Rates Keep Home Sales Near Cycle Lows
Two months ago, existing home sales hit a five-month low. Last month’s report showed a minor rebound. This month’s update, released July 23, shows a return to weakness. Sales declined 2.7% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million. That leaves activity just above the recent low and still 25% below long-term norms. Year-over-year, sales were unchanged nationally. As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart results in an entirely different impression of the home resale market. Sales levels have hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three
High Prices and Rates Keep Home Sales Near Cycle Lows
Two months ago, existing home sales hit a five-month low. Last month’s report showed a minor rebound. This month’s update, released July 23, shows a return to weakness. Sales declined 2.7% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million. That leaves activity just above the recent low and still 25% below long-term norms. Year-over-year, sales were unchanged nationally. As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart results in an entirely different impression of the home resale market. Sales levels have hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three
23rd July, 25
Weaker Start After Japan Trade Deal
The analytical theme this week has been to observe the market movement and then go scrambling for justification. Such is the nature of a week without any actionable econ data. This morning's example involves yesterday evening's announcement of a trade deal with Japan which can generally be credited with boosting stocks and hurting bonds in the overnight session. There's been just a bit more selling as domestic trading ramps up for the day, but not enough to break above this week's high yields
Weaker Start After Japan Trade Deal
The analytical theme this week has been to observe the market movement and then go scrambling for justification. Such is the nature of a week without any actionable econ data. This morning's example involves yesterday evening's announcement of a trade deal with Japan which can generally be credited with boosting stocks and hurting bonds in the overnight session. There's been just a bit more selling as domestic trading ramps up for the day, but not enough to break above this week's high yields
23rd July, 25
Mortgage Apps Eke Out Small Gain Thanks to Purchase Activity
Mortgage application activity managed a modest increase last week despite slightly higher rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey showed a 0.8% rise in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending July 18, 2025. “Mortgage rates moved higher last week, with the 30-year fixed rate edging up to 6.84 percent, the highest level in four weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications finished the week higher, driven by conventional purchase loans, and continue to run ahead of last year’s pace. After
Mortgage Apps Eke Out Small Gain Thanks to Purchase Activity
Mortgage application activity managed a modest increase last week despite slightly higher rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey showed a 0.8% rise in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending July 18, 2025. “Mortgage rates moved higher last week, with the 30-year fixed rate edging up to 6.84 percent, the highest level in four weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications finished the week higher, driven by conventional purchase loans, and continue to run ahead of last year’s pace. After
23rd July, 25
CFPB Warning; Elizabeth Warren & Bill Pulte; Non-Agency News
The residential lending industry touches all facets of life, and the best LOs are not focused strictly about mortgages. I start off this Commentary with a note about… pets. Yep. Apparently, shelters are overwhelmed with animals. If you’re looking for an animal, or know someone who is, now is especially a good time to adopt. (My cat Myrtle came from “a pound”… they have more character!) LOs also are good at following non-mortgage debt since it is another way to help clients. Did you know that there is more student debt than credit card debt? Yup: $1.8 trillion versus $1.1 trillion. Of
CFPB Warning; Elizabeth Warren & Bill Pulte; Non-Agency News
The residential lending industry touches all facets of life, and the best LOs are not focused strictly about mortgages. I start off this Commentary with a note about… pets. Yep. Apparently, shelters are overwhelmed with animals. If you’re looking for an animal, or know someone who is, now is especially a good time to adopt. (My cat Myrtle came from “a pound”… they have more character!) LOs also are good at following non-mortgage debt since it is another way to help clients. Did you know that there is more student debt than credit card debt? Yup: $1.8 trillion versus $1.1 trillion. Of
22nd July, 25
Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day
Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day Bonds improved in the morning following comments from Bessent that gave the markets more insight to his role in defusing last week's frenzy over the potential ouster. In short, he's the voice of reason and the bond market likes that. Additional gains came courtesy of 9:30am NYSE tradeflows. At the time, stocks were sinking. Then in the afternoon, stocks rebounded without pulling bond yields higher. Market Movement Recap 10:59 AM Flat overnight but gaining ground in AM hours following Bessent comments on Fed and NYSE opening bell volatility.
Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day
Solid AM Gains Stick Around All Day Bonds improved in the morning following comments from Bessent that gave the markets more insight to his role in defusing last week's frenzy over the potential ouster. In short, he's the voice of reason and the bond market likes that. Additional gains came courtesy of 9:30am NYSE tradeflows. At the time, stocks were sinking. Then in the afternoon, stocks rebounded without pulling bond yields higher. Market Movement Recap 10:59 AM Flat overnight but gaining ground in AM hours following Bessent comments on Fed and NYSE opening bell volatility.
22nd July, 25
Mortgage Rates Inch Down to 2-Week Lows
Last week, we got a sneak preview of how the market would react to Fed Chair Powell ending his term early. In a nutshell, only the shortest-term rates would improve while most consumer rates would move higher--including mortgages. This isn't conjecture, but rather the actual response in the bond market (bonds dictate interest rates). Thankfully, the response reversed after Trump said he wasn't planning on firing Powell. Nonetheless, doubt remains as to whether Powell is susceptible to other efforts. With that in mind, the rate market reacted positively this morning when additional
Mortgage Rates Inch Down to 2-Week Lows
Last week, we got a sneak preview of how the market would react to Fed Chair Powell ending his term early. In a nutshell, only the shortest-term rates would improve while most consumer rates would move higher--including mortgages. This isn't conjecture, but rather the actual response in the bond market (bonds dictate interest rates). Thankfully, the response reversed after Trump said he wasn't planning on firing Powell. Nonetheless, doubt remains as to whether Powell is susceptible to other efforts. With that in mind, the rate market reacted positively this morning when additional
22nd July, 25
Marketing, Processing, Servicing Tools; STRATMOR on Revenue Growth; FHA, EPDs, and Disasters
You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company and mortgage servicer certainly do. It is a fact that warmer air can hold more moisture, and a new peer-reviewed study published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience found that insured losses from hurricanes could rise 50 percent if global atmospheric warming hits the 2 degrees Celsius threshold. A lot of those losses come from the areas affected by hurricanes expanding well northward along the Eastern Seaboard, with places that had been considered relatively safe from the monster storms suddenly now well in range
Marketing, Processing, Servicing Tools; STRATMOR on Revenue Growth; FHA, EPDs, and Disasters
You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company and mortgage servicer certainly do. It is a fact that warmer air can hold more moisture, and a new peer-reviewed study published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience found that insured losses from hurricanes could rise 50 percent if global atmospheric warming hits the 2 degrees Celsius threshold. A lot of those losses come from the areas affected by hurricanes expanding well northward along the Eastern Seaboard, with places that had been considered relatively safe from the monster storms suddenly now well in range
22nd July, 25
Bonds Approve of Bessent Comments and Stock Volatility
While stock market volatility may be a drop in the bucket in the bigger picture, earnings season tends to increase volume and liquidity. This can spill over to the bond market in unpredictable ways, but so far this week, it's been helpful--especially at the 9:30am NYSE open. A few hours before that, bonds moved into positive territory following a series of comments from Bessent. Topics included trade negotiations and Fed Chair Powell. Bessent doesn't see a need to fire Powell, echoing a WSJ report over the weekend to the same effect. If Bessent's underlying goal is to help
Bonds Approve of Bessent Comments and Stock Volatility
While stock market volatility may be a drop in the bucket in the bigger picture, earnings season tends to increase volume and liquidity. This can spill over to the bond market in unpredictable ways, but so far this week, it's been helpful--especially at the 9:30am NYSE open. A few hours before that, bonds moved into positive territory following a series of comments from Bessent. Topics included trade negotiations and Fed Chair Powell. Bessent doesn't see a need to fire Powell, echoing a WSJ report over the weekend to the same effect. If Bessent's underlying goal is to help
21st July, 25
Uneventful Resilience
Uneventful Resilience Monday's theme for the bond market was one of moderate resilience--at least for the longer-end of the yield curve. Yields are lower across the board (less so for shorter-term notes like the 2yr) without any headline or data-based motivations. On days like this, motivation is assumed to come from technicals and trading taking place in other markets for other reasons. With earnings season in full swing, it's no surprise to see 9:30am and 4pm garner most of the days volume and volatility.f Econ Data / Events Leading Indicators -0.3 vs -0.2 f'cast, 0.0 prev Market
Uneventful Resilience
Uneventful Resilience Monday's theme for the bond market was one of moderate resilience--at least for the longer-end of the yield curve. Yields are lower across the board (less so for shorter-term notes like the 2yr) without any headline or data-based motivations. On days like this, motivation is assumed to come from technicals and trading taking place in other markets for other reasons. With earnings season in full swing, it's no surprise to see 9:30am and 4pm garner most of the days volume and volatility.f Econ Data / Events Leading Indicators -0.3 vs -0.2 f'cast, 0.0 prev Market
21st July, 25
Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower to Start New Week
Mortgage rates didn't move much on Monday, but they moved in the right direction with the average lender 0.03% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario versus last Friday. That makes this the 4th straight business day with a modest gain and it gets us back in line with the lowest rates since July 3rd. One fairly consistent theme this week will be the absence of the sort of high-impact economic data that is often responsible for rate volatility. Last week's key data was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which pushed rates higher on Tuesday. There are several economic reports on tap
Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower to Start New Week
Mortgage rates didn't move much on Monday, but they moved in the right direction with the average lender 0.03% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario versus last Friday. That makes this the 4th straight business day with a modest gain and it gets us back in line with the lowest rates since July 3rd. One fairly consistent theme this week will be the absence of the sort of high-impact economic data that is often responsible for rate volatility. Last week's key data was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which pushed rates higher on Tuesday. There are several economic reports on tap
Mortgage AgentTinoos MeshgiLocation ThornhillLicense M13000425- 
