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3rd April, 26
Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling
Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling The typical early close for the bond market is 2pm ET. This is usually reserved for a holiday-adjacent day such as Christmas Eve or the day after Thanksgiving. Good Friday is unique. On years where it DOES NOT coincide with a jobs report, it's fully closed. Otherwise, it's open for a partial day, but only until noon ET instead of 2pm. That didn't leave much time for anything else to happen this morning after the initial bout of moderate selling pressure. It also discouraged trading volume in general--especially in light of other markets being
Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling
Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling The typical early close for the bond market is 2pm ET. This is usually reserved for a holiday-adjacent day such as Christmas Eve or the day after Thanksgiving. Good Friday is unique. On years where it DOES NOT coincide with a jobs report, it's fully closed. Otherwise, it's open for a partial day, but only until noon ET instead of 2pm. That didn't leave much time for anything else to happen this morning after the initial bout of moderate selling pressure. It also discouraged trading volume in general--especially in light of other markets being
3rd April, 26
AI Due diligence, AI Guide, Data Mining Tools; Investor Agency Changes; Good Stats to Help LOs
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders The team at Model Match has launched the first phase of a complete platform overhaul, reimagining how lenders access and act on real estate, mortgage, and borrower data. The release centers on a simplified search experience across loan officers, agents, offices, and companies, alongside a major data expansion pushing coverage beyond 6 billion records. Model Match also introduced Market Signals, a new dataset providing visibility into mortgage activity from application through funding across roughly one in every two U.S. mortgages, along
AI Due diligence, AI Guide, Data Mining Tools; Investor Agency Changes; Good Stats to Help LOs
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders The team at Model Match has launched the first phase of a complete platform overhaul, reimagining how lenders access and act on real estate, mortgage, and borrower data. The release centers on a simplified search experience across loan officers, agents, offices, and companies, alongside a major data expansion pushing coverage beyond 6 billion records. Model Match also introduced Market Signals, a new dataset providing visibility into mortgage activity from application through funding across roughly one in every two U.S. mortgages, along
3rd April, 26
Logically Weaker After Solid Jobs Report, But It's a Ghost Town
Today's jobs report is/was the only big-ticket calendar event and the most obvious source of bond market inspiration. That's doubly true considering the even earlier-than-normal early close (12pm ET) for Good Friday. Payrolls were hot at 178k vs -133k previously. The big swing is the first hint that payrolls should be taken with a grain of salt. Large swings were expected, to some extent, due to large strikes and the end of those strikes. Weird weather played a role to a lesser extent. Strikes aside, the market has shifted its jobs report focus more toward the unemployment rate over the
Logically Weaker After Solid Jobs Report, But It's a Ghost Town
Today's jobs report is/was the only big-ticket calendar event and the most obvious source of bond market inspiration. That's doubly true considering the even earlier-than-normal early close (12pm ET) for Good Friday. Payrolls were hot at 178k vs -133k previously. The big swing is the first hint that payrolls should be taken with a grain of salt. Large swings were expected, to some extent, due to large strikes and the end of those strikes. Weird weather played a role to a lesser extent. Strikes aside, the market has shifted its jobs report focus more toward the unemployment rate over the
2nd April, 26
Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes
Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes Bonds were weaker to start the day with oil prices moving sharply higher after last night's Trump speech. But a few hours into the trading session, the move was completely erased and reversed after some fairly simple headlines regarding Iran/Oman working on a resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's speech and the Iran/Oman news may as well have been the only two things that happened today because those were the only moments with any serious market movement. The jobs report is on deck for tomorrow's holiday-shortened trading session. Econ Data / Events
Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes
Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes Bonds were weaker to start the day with oil prices moving sharply higher after last night's Trump speech. But a few hours into the trading session, the move was completely erased and reversed after some fairly simple headlines regarding Iran/Oman working on a resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's speech and the Iran/Oman news may as well have been the only two things that happened today because those were the only moments with any serious market movement. The jobs report is on deck for tomorrow's holiday-shortened trading session. Econ Data / Events
2nd April, 26
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Lower This Week
On any given Thursday, there's a decent enough chance that the average mortgage rate headline will be unintentionally misleading. At issue is media reliance on the longstanding weekly mortgage rate surveys. If news stories are going to cite this data, that's fine, but it's critical to understand the methodology. Whether it's MBA (reported yesterday) or Freddie Mac (reported today), the weekly surveys have an inherent reporting lag--that is, they are published at least a day after data collection ends. In addition, they represent an average of 5 business days. This means that the weekly
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Lower This Week
On any given Thursday, there's a decent enough chance that the average mortgage rate headline will be unintentionally misleading. At issue is media reliance on the longstanding weekly mortgage rate surveys. If news stories are going to cite this data, that's fine, but it's critical to understand the methodology. Whether it's MBA (reported yesterday) or Freddie Mac (reported today), the weekly surveys have an inherent reporting lag--that is, they are published at least a day after data collection ends. In addition, they represent an average of 5 business days. This means that the weekly
2nd April, 26
Social Security, Equity, Processing Tools; Freddie and Fannie Shifts; Release From Conservatorship Slim
“Rob, what do you hear about Fannie & Freddie being released from conservatorship?” Not much. Although it may change with one random tweet, the idea & process of jettisoning them is not even “on the back burner”… It may be back in the refrigerator. Maybe 2031? Both are certainly building up their net worth, but they don’t have enough capital to be released based on the amount of capital required under an Administrative Rule. The U.S. Government doesn’t want to lose control, or the income, and MBS traders and investors don’t want to lose the government guarantee. Scott
Social Security, Equity, Processing Tools; Freddie and Fannie Shifts; Release From Conservatorship Slim
“Rob, what do you hear about Fannie & Freddie being released from conservatorship?” Not much. Although it may change with one random tweet, the idea & process of jettisoning them is not even “on the back burner”… It may be back in the refrigerator. Maybe 2031? Both are certainly building up their net worth, but they don’t have enough capital to be released based on the amount of capital required under an Administrative Rule. The U.S. Government doesn’t want to lose control, or the income, and MBS traders and investors don’t want to lose the government guarantee. Scott
2nd April, 26
Trump Speech Fuels Another Leg Up For Oil and Yields
Things don't always happen like you'd expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night's Trump speech. Even during the domestic trading day, we knew the speech would offer some touting of accomplishments and a reiteration that objectives were "nearly complete." Both of those things happened, but the speech also promised forceful escalation under certain circumstances. While that's nothing new, it wasn't what the market was hoping to hear last night. As a result, oil prices and bond yields spiked and stocks sold symmetrically. Bonds are juggling the dueling narratives of
Trump Speech Fuels Another Leg Up For Oil and Yields
Things don't always happen like you'd expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night's Trump speech. Even during the domestic trading day, we knew the speech would offer some touting of accomplishments and a reiteration that objectives were "nearly complete." Both of those things happened, but the speech also promised forceful escalation under certain circumstances. While that's nothing new, it wasn't what the market was hoping to hear last night. As a result, oil prices and bond yields spiked and stocks sold symmetrically. Bonds are juggling the dueling narratives of
1st April, 26
Surprisingly Light Volatility
Surprisingly Light Volatility Bonds digested several big ticket economic reports as well as a host of war-related headlines that probably would have caused a much bigger reaction a few weeks ago. But the net effect was an almost perfectly flat day by the 3pm CME close. If anything, the data caused some weakness and we can say bonds would have rallied more noticeably otherwise. The weak response is no surprise considering all 3 reports were stronger than expected. This also serves as a reminder that Friday's jobs report is still a relevant market mover despite a general focus on the war and
Surprisingly Light Volatility
Surprisingly Light Volatility Bonds digested several big ticket economic reports as well as a host of war-related headlines that probably would have caused a much bigger reaction a few weeks ago. But the net effect was an almost perfectly flat day by the 3pm CME close. If anything, the data caused some weakness and we can say bonds would have rallied more noticeably otherwise. The weak response is no surprise considering all 3 reports were stronger than expected. This also serves as a reminder that Friday's jobs report is still a relevant market mover despite a general focus on the war and
1st April, 26
Mortgage Rates Steady to Slightly Lower
Mortgage rates were little-changed on Wednesday, despite the release of several economic reports and another deluge of war-related headlines. In the slightly bigger picture, the market is trading with some sense of hope of a finite timeline for the war. Today, that meant a moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields (aka "rates"). Bonds struggled to maintain the improvement after this morning's economic reports which were broadly stronger than expected. In general, stronger econ data suggests higher rates, all else equal. In addition to stronger employment and retail sales reports, a key
Mortgage Rates Steady to Slightly Lower
Mortgage rates were little-changed on Wednesday, despite the release of several economic reports and another deluge of war-related headlines. In the slightly bigger picture, the market is trading with some sense of hope of a finite timeline for the war. Today, that meant a moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields (aka "rates"). Bonds struggled to maintain the improvement after this morning's economic reports which were broadly stronger than expected. In general, stronger econ data suggests higher rates, all else equal. In addition to stronger employment and retail sales reports, a key
1st April, 26
Another Big Drop in Refi Demand, But Still Higher Year Over Year
Mortgage applications fell for the third consecutive week amid an increasingly volatile rate environment. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 27. The Refinance Index fell 17% from the previous week, but remains 33% higher than the same week one year ago. Purchase activity also declined, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index dropping 3% , just 1% above year-ago levels. MBA’s Mike Fratantoni notes "higher rates are being offset somewhat by the buyer’s market in many parts of the country
Another Big Drop in Refi Demand, But Still Higher Year Over Year
Mortgage applications fell for the third consecutive week amid an increasingly volatile rate environment. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 27. The Refinance Index fell 17% from the previous week, but remains 33% higher than the same week one year ago. Purchase activity also declined, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index dropping 3% , just 1% above year-ago levels. MBA’s Mike Fratantoni notes "higher rates are being offset somewhat by the buyer’s market in many parts of the country
Staff MemberVanda NegiBusiness Development CoachLocation TorontoLicense M0000000-