As British Columbia approaches its provincial election in October 2024, the housing market remains the focal point of political discourse. Over the last decade, housing affordability and supply have reached critical levels in cities like Vancouver and Victoria, where average home prices and rents continue to soar. Meanwhile, population growth, regulatory pressures, and economic factors have worsened the supply-demand imbalance, further straining affordability.
This blog explores the housing crisis in British Columbia, detailing how government policies have impacted the supply of housing, what factors have driven prices up, and how the political landscape, particularly ahead of the election, may shape the future of housing in BC. We will also examine current housing statistics and polling data to understand the political dynamics that could influence the future of housing policy in the province.
The Housing Crisis in British Columbia
British Columbia’s housing crisis is no longer just a regional concern but a pressing national issue. Metro Vancouver, in particular, has experienced unsustainable housing price growth over the past decade. The average price of a home home price passed $1.2 million in 2023, an increase of over 45% since 2018. The city also faces a near-zero vacancy rate, standing at 0.9% for rentals, driving up the cost of living for both renters and homeowners.
Despite various government interventions, including foreign buyer taxes, vacancy taxes, and rent caps, housing affordability remains elusive for many residents. The mismatch between housing supply and demand is exacerbated by rapid population growth, driven by immigration and interprovincial migration, which has significantly increased the demand for homes.
- According to Statistics Canada, BC’s population grew by 7.6% between 2016 and 2021, with the province expecting to add nearly 1 million people by 2030.
- Research conducted by the BC Real Estate Association indicates that while the Speculation and Vacancy Tax (SVT) has raised approximately $231 million since its implementation, its impact on housing prices has been limited.
- A study by the University of British Columbia noted that while the tax led to a reduction in the number of vacant homes, there has been little evidence that it significantly lowered overall housing prices in the market.
Experts argue that addressing the underlying issues of supply constraints and demand pressures is crucial for improving affordability.
Historical Context and Policy Initiatives in BC’s Housing Market
● Escalating Prices and Policy Interventions
Over the last decade, British Columbia has witnessed housing price growth far outstripping wage increases. Between 2013 and 2023, housing prices in Metro Vancouver increased by 105%, driven by speculative investments, limited supply, and heightened demand. In response to growing concerns, the BC NDP, under then-Premier John Horgan, implemented its 30-Point Housing Plan in 2018, aimed at curbing speculation, stabilizing the market, and boosting supply. However, despite these initiatives, critics argue that housing affordability has not improved substantially.
● Key Elements of the NDP’s 30-Point Housing Plan
- Speculation and Vacancy Tax: Introduced in 2018, this tax targets foreign and domestic investors who own vacant homes. The aim was to discourage speculative buying and free up properties for long-term residents. As of 2023, the tax raised $231 million, but its effectiveness in improving affordability remains contested.
- Foreign Buyers’ Tax: Aimed at curbing foreign ownership, this tax was set at 20% for foreign buyers of residential properties in Metro Vancouver. While it helped reduce some speculative investments, home prices continued to climb post-implementation.
- Flipping Tax: This tax penalizes short-term property flipping by applying taxes on the profits of homes sold within a short time after purchase.
- Short-Term Rental Restrictions: Aimed at platforms like Airbnb, these restrictions sought to preserve long-term rental availability in high-demand areas. Vancouver’s housing market saw a 15% reduction in short-term rentals between 2019 and 2023.
Despite these efforts, many argue that the NDP’s focus on taxation and regulation did not significantly boost supply or curb the underlying affordability crisis.
Current Housing Statistics: Analyzing the Supply and Affordability Gap
1. Housing Completions and Supply Constraints
BC’s housing supply has not kept pace with its rapid population growth. In 2017, before the NDP’s policies took full effect, Metro Vancouver saw 21,806 home completions. However, by 2023, that number had dropped to 20,797 completions despite the region’s population growth of over 350,000 since 2017. This supply gap has been a major factor behind rising home prices and rent increases.
Industry experts emphasize that the housing completion drop is not solely due to government regulations but is also influenced by market dynamics. A report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) noted that increased construction costs, a shortage of skilled labour, and zoning restrictions also play significant roles in limiting housing supply.
- Housing Completions Shortfall: Had housing completions continued on their pre-2018 trend, nearly 12,000 more homes would have been built in 2023, representing a 57% increase in supply. The stagnation in completions has led to tighter market conditions, driving up both home prices and rents.
2. Rental Vacancy Rates and Rising Rents
The rental market is particularly tight, with a vacancy rate of just 0.9% in Vancouver, well below the 3% benchmark for a balanced rental market. This shortage has driven the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment up by 32%, rising from $1,649 in 2018 to $2,181 in 2023.
Comparison with the U.S. Housing Market
To assess whether BC’s housing challenges are unique, it’s helpful to compare the region with similar markets. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis indicates that housing completions in the United States grew by over 25% between 2017 and 2023, despite fluctuating interest rates and the pandemic. By contrast, housing completions in Metro Vancouver stagnated, reinforcing the argument that local policies, rather than broader economic factors, may be exacerbating supply shortages.
The Political Landscape: Election 2024 and Housing Policy
Housing is the most significant issue for voters heading into BC’s provincial election on October 19, 2024. Recent surveys by Leger and Research Co. indicate a close race between the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives, both of whom have divergent approaches to tackling the housing crisis.
| Survey | BC NDP | BC Conservatives | BC Green Party | Additional Insights |
| Leger Survey (October 2024) | 47% | 42% | 9% | NDP’s rise attributed to focus on affordability & healthcare; Conservatives criticize NDP’s housing policies. |
| Research Co. Survey (Late September 2024) | 45% | 44% | N/A | It is a tighter race, with 87% of BC residents likely to vote. Housing affordability and economic management are top issues. |
Key Issues Influencing Voters
- Housing Affordability: According to the Leger survey, the BC NDP leads in this area with 39% support, compared to 23% for the BC Conservatives.
- Economic Management: The BC Conservatives have a clear advantage here, with 56% support, compared to 22% for the BC NDP.
- Inflation: Both parties are tied to inflation management, with 31% support each, reflecting the public’s uncertainty over which party can best manage the cost of living.
Political Party Platforms: Housing Policies for 2024
BC NDP’s Housing Platform
Premier David Eby and the BC NDP are doubling down on regulatory measures and affordability programs. Their key proposals for 2024 include:
- Increasing the Speculation and Vacancy Tax: This is intended to further discourage speculative ownership and boost housing availability for BC residents. This tax has already raised significant revenue, which the NDP promises to reinvest in housing projects.
- First-Time Homebuyer Assistance: The NDP aims to cover 40% of the home price for first-time buyers, making homeownership more accessible to younger generations.
- Public Housing and Transit-Oriented Development: The NDP’s long-term plan includes building more public housing and promoting transit-oriented developments like the UBC SkyTrain extension and the Fraser Valley rail service. These projects are intended to boost housing density in urban corridors.
While these proposals may increase affordability for certain groups, critics argue that the emphasis on taxation could stifle housing development, further reducing supply.
BC Conservatives’ Housing Platform
John Rustad’s BC Conservatives have proposed a radically different approach, focusing on deregulation and removing barriers to development. Their key proposals include:
- Reversing NDP’s Electrification Policies: By scrapping some of the NDP’s costly energy policies, the Conservatives hope to reduce construction costs and incentivize private-sector development.
However, the feasibility of these proposals is subject to debate. For example, the proposed reversal of electrification policies, which are designed to promote sustainable building practices and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, could lead to short-term cost savings but may hinder long-term environmental goals. Furthermore, a report by the BC Construction Association suggests that simply deregulating housing development may not lead to a significant increase in supply, as many construction delays stem from factors beyond regulation, such as labour shortages and high material costs. Therefore, while the Conservative strategy aims to incentivize private-sector development, its effectiveness in alleviating the housing crisis remains uncertain.
- Redeveloping Riverview Hospital and Expanding Mental Health Services: The Conservatives aim to address homelessness through redevelopment projects, coupled with expanded mental health services to assist vulnerable populations.
- Banning Homeless Encampments: As part of their law-and-order platform, the Conservatives propose enforcing drug-free supportive housing policies and removing homeless encampments to restore public spaces.
The Conservatives argue that rolling back the NDP’s policies will unleash more private-sector development, boosting housing supply and easing price pressures.
What Lies Ahead for BC’s Housing Market?
As British Columbia prepares for its 2024 provincial election, the housing crisis remains the single most pressing issue. While the BC NDP and BC Conservatives offer starkly different solutions, neither party has fully addressed the underlying challenges of supply shortages and escalating costs. With vacancy rates at historic lows, rents surging, and home completions lagging behind population growth, BC voters face a critical choice.
Will the electorate continue with the BC NDP’s regulatory approach, or will they pivot toward the BC Conservatives’ free-market solutions? The outcome of the election will likely define the future trajectory of housing policy in British Columbia, but one thing remains clear: bold, innovative solutions are needed to resolve the province’s housing crisis.
Get Involved in the Housing Crisis Debate!
As British Columbia approaches its pivotal provincial election, the future of housing affordability and supply is in your hands. It’s time to make your voice heard! Educate yourself about the policies proposed and understand their implications for your community. Your experiences with housing whether as a renter, homeowner, or someone struggling to find affordable options can inspire change. Together, we can drive meaningful change in BC’s housing landscape. Let’s work towards a future where everyone has access to safe and affordable housing!
