Quick answer
- The sales-to-new-listings ratio, or SNLR, is the number of homes sold in a month divided by new listings that same month, shown as a percentage.
- In Canada, 45 to 60 percent is balanced. Above 60 percent points to a seller’s market. Below 45 percent points to a buyer’s market.
- The Canadian Real Estate Association publishes the national ratio monthly. Local real estate boards publish city-level versions.
- It is the clearest single-number gauge of supply-and-demand balance, but should be read alongside months of inventory and price trends.
Why this ratio is trending now
The sales-to-new-listings ratio is getting more attention this summer. The national reading moved above 50 percent in June for the first time this year. That crossing matters less as a specific number and more as a signal. The Canadian housing market has shifted out of the buyer-leaning territory it sat in through the winter.
For most Canadians, this is the kind of stat that gets quoted in a headline without much context. You hear “sales-to-new-listings ratio” and the sentence ends. You are left wondering whether it is good news, bad news, or neither.
This guide walks through what the ratio actually measures. It covers how to read it and what to do with the number once you have it. No forecasting, no rate predictions. Just a plain-English breakdown of the single most-cited balance metric in Canadian real estate.
Quick start: pick your path
Skim this checklist and jump to the section that fits your situation. The rest of the article backs each answer with detail.
What the sales-to-new-listings ratio actually measures
The formula is straightforward. If a Canadian city recorded 500 home sales in a month and 1,000 new listings in the same month, the ratio is 50 percent. The Canadian Real Estate Association, known as CREA, publishes the national reading every month. It uses data aggregated from local real estate boards.
Two details often trip up new readers. First, the denominator is new listings for the month, not total active listings on the market. A home that was listed six months ago and has not sold is not in the count. Second, the ratio is calculated for each city or region separately. Those city numbers are then rolled up to a national number. The national reading is a weighted composite, not a simple average.
That mechanical detail matters. It explains why the national number can move in one direction while your local number moves in the other. The math weights higher-volume markets more heavily. CMHC and other national housing bodies often reference the ratio in their market commentary.
Reading the three bands: buyer, seller, or balanced
The three bands each carry a different set of typical conditions. Prices, negotiation dynamics, and time on market all tend to shift as the ratio moves.
| Band | Reading | What it typically signals |
|---|---|---|
| Buyer’s market | Below 45% | More new listings than sales; prices may soften; buyers often have room to negotiate on price and conditions. |
| Balanced market | 45% to 60% | Supply and demand roughly matched; prices tend to move sideways or with inflation; neither side has a clear edge. |
| Seller’s market | Above 60% | More sales than new listings; prices may rise; homes often sell faster and with fewer conditions. |
For a broader market view where this ratio fits in, see our Canada Real Estate Outlook 2026: Buyer’s Guide.
Two cautions. First, these are typical patterns, not rules. A market can sit above 60 percent for months without meaningful price moves if inventory is unusually high. Second, one month’s reading is a snapshot, not a trend. Two or three consecutive months in the same band tell a stronger story.
Pegasus Mortgage Lending Center Inc. FSRA Lic # 11479
Where regional numbers diverge from the national reading
The national ratio is a composite, not a summary of every city. In practice, Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, and Ottawa can each run in different bands at the same time.
Calgary has spent much of the last two years in seller-market territory. In-migration has outpaced new listings there. Toronto and Vancouver have swung more often between balanced and buyer conditions. Higher rates have weighed on demand, and a steady flow of new condo listings has added supply. Ottawa has been steadier and closer to balanced through the same window.
Montreal is a special case. The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers uses a slightly different methodology. Its numbers are not directly comparable to CREA readings for other provinces.
The point is not that the national number is wrong. It captures the whole country accurately. Your buying or selling decision is local, though. The local number is the one that touches your transaction. For a city-by-city view, see the Canada Housing Market by City 2026 breakdown.
Pegasus Mortgage Lending Center Inc. FSRA Lic # 11479
Step-by-step: how to use the ratio in your next decision
Turning a percentage into a plan is easier than it looks. Here is a five-step approach that works for both buyers and sellers.
- 1Check the reading for your city, not just the national number.Look up the most recent release from your local real estate board. TRREB covers Toronto, REBGV covers Vancouver, and CREB covers Calgary.
- 2Look at the trend, not the single month.Two or three consecutive readings in the same band matter more than one outlier.
- 3Cross-check with months of inventory.A ratio can spike because sales rose. It can also spike because new listings fell. Months of inventory helps you tell those apart.
- 4Match the reading to your timeline.If you are buying in the next 90 days, current conditions matter most. If you are buying in a year, trend direction matters more.
- 5Run the numbers on your side of the ledger.Whatever the market signal says, your monthly payment is what actually decides affordability. Use the Mortgage Affordability Calculator to test scenarios before you commit.
What the ratio means for your mortgage strategy
A hotter market does not change your interest rate directly. It can change your negotiating position and the pace of your decisions.
In a seller’s market, offers often move fast and conditions come off. Having a firm rate hold from a pre-approval matters more. You cannot afford to lose days on rate shopping while a competing offer closes. Conditional financing periods can also shorten.
In a buyer’s market, the pressure flips. You have room to negotiate on price and terms. You can typically spend more time comparing lender offers side by side.
For homeowners approaching a renewal, the ratio matters less directly. Renewal offers are driven by your lender’s cost of funds and your credit profile, not by market temperature. A stronger housing market often coincides with more lender willingness to compete on renewal rates. On complex files — self-employed borrowers, credit-challenged files, or investors with multi-property portfolios — a broker perspective often matters more than the market signal. Razi Khan, Founder and Mortgage Broker at Pegasus has helped more than 3,000 clients navigate exactly these situations.
Federal underwriting rules also apply throughout. OSFI’s Guideline B-20 continues to require a qualifying stress test for most new mortgages. That rule shapes what any lender can offer, regardless of market band.
If you are weighing whether to stay put or move on your renewal, the Mortgage Renewal vs Refinance 2026 Canada guide covers the trade-offs.
Pegasus Mortgage Lending Center Inc. FSRA Lic # 11479
Common mistakes when reading the ratio
Six patterns show up repeatedly when readers try to translate the ratio into a decision.
- Treating a single month as a trend. One reading is a snapshot. Two or three consecutive months in the same band is a trend.
- Using the national number for a local decision. The composite hides real regional divergence. Always check your city’s number for a specific market.
- Ignoring the denominator. A ratio can rise because sales climbed. It can also rise because new listings dropped. Check months of inventory to see which is happening.
- Waiting for a perfect reading. Markets rarely cooperate. Personal financial readiness is a stronger signal than any macro indicator.
- Confusing the ratio with the absorption rate. They are related but different. The SNLR uses new listings. The absorption rate uses total active listings.
- Reading the ratio in isolation. It is one input. Prices, months of inventory, and mortgage rates all matter alongside it.
Frequently asked questions
What is the sales-to-new-listings ratio in plain English?
Is Canada in a buyer’s market or a seller’s market right now?
What is considered a healthy sales-to-new-listings ratio?
How is the ratio actually calculated?
Where can I find the ratio for my city?
Does the ratio predict home prices?
Why is the national number sometimes different from my local number?
Should I wait for a buyer’s market before I buy?
For more common questions about mortgages, see our full FAQ.
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About the author
Razi Khan
Founder, CEO & Licensed Mortgage Broker · Pegasus Mortgage Lending · Toronto, Ontario · FSRA Lic # 11479
Razi Khan is the Founder, CEO, and a licensed Mortgage Broker at Pegasus Mortgage Lending Center Inc., based in Toronto. With over 20 years of experience in the Canadian mortgage industry, Razi has personally guided more than 3,000 clients through some of the most complex and high-stakes financial decisions of their lives — from first-time purchases in the GTA to refinancing strategies, alternative lending solutions, and cross-border mortgages for Canadians buying in the United States.
Razi founded Pegasus in October 2008, launching the brokerage at the height of a global financial crisis. He works across the full spectrum of borrower profiles, with particular expertise in complex files including self-employed borrowers, credit-challenged clients, and investors building multi-property portfolios.
Learn more about Razi Khan →Sources & references
- Canadian Real Estate Association — Housing Market Statistics — https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/
- Canadian Real Estate Association — MLS Home Price Index — https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/mls-home-price-index/
- Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation — Housing Market Assessment — https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market
- Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) — Market Watch — https://trreb.ca/index.php/market-news/market-watch
- Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver — Statistics — https://www.rebgv.org/market-watch.html
- Calgary Real Estate Board — Housing Statistics — https://www.creb.com/Housing_Statistics/
- Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers — Market Statistics — https://apciq.ca/en/real-estate-market/
- OSFI — Residential Mortgage Underwriting (Guideline B-20) — https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/guidance/guidance-library/residential-mortgage-underwriting-practices-procedures-guideline-b-20