Understanding The Shifts In The Calgary Housing Market 2025

The Calgary housing market has been a focal point of discussion for homeowners, investors, and prospective buyers alike. After a period of intense activity and significant price appreciation, recent data indicates a notable shift in market dynamics. This comprehensive analysis will explore the current state of the Calgary housing market, delve into recent statistics, examine influencing factors, and provide insights into what the future may hold, including the Calgary Housing Market Forecast 2025. We will also address the pressing question many are asking: Will the Calgary housing market crash?

The Current Pulse of the Calgary Housing Market: A Move Towards Balance

Recent statistics paint a clear picture of a Calgary housing market that is transitioning. After experiencing two years characterized by soaring price growth and exceptionally tight supply, signs of cooling are evident. This moderation is a welcome change for many, particularly buyers who faced stiff competition and rapidly escalating prices.

According to the latest data from the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) for April 2025, home sales in Calgary totalled 2,236. This figure represents a 22% decrease when compared to the record-breaking highs of the previous year. While a double-digit percentage drop might seem alarming at first glance, CREB emphasizes that current activity levels are still consistent with long-term historical averages for the city.

A significant factor contributing to this shift is a notable increase in new listings. This surge has pushed the total inventory of homes available to 5,876 units. This is more than double the inventory levels seen at the trough of the supply crunch last year and brings the market much closer to what would be considered typical April levels. With nearly three months of housing supply now available, the Calgary housing market is moving decisively into what economists describe as “balanced territory.”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Price Dynamics in the Calgary Housing Market: Stability Amidst Transition

One of the most watched indicators in any real estate market is price movement. In the Calgary housing market, the increase in supply has helped to moderate the rapid pace of price gains that were a hallmark of the previous two years.

The city-wide benchmark price in April 2025 stood at $591,100. This figure is relatively unchanged from the preceding month (March 2025) and represents a slight decrease of 1.4% when compared year-over-year. However, the story varies when we look at different segments of the market:

• Detached Homes: The benchmark price for detached homes was $769,300 in April 2025, up just over 2% from April of the previous year.
• Semi-Detached Homes: These properties saw their benchmark price reach $691,700, an increase of 3% year-over-year, though flat month-over-month.
• Row Houses: Prices in this segment remained flat year-over-year at $457,400.
• Condo Apartments: The benchmark price for condos held steady at $336,000, unchanged from last year and still below the peak seen in 2024.

CREB highlights that market conditions are not uniform across all price points and housing types. Lower-priced detached and semi-detached homes continue to experience undersupply, meaning demand still outstrips the available inventory in these specific segments. Conversely, the apartment and row segments are observing more balanced conditions, largely due to a significant spike in new listings for these property types. The apartment segment, for instance, now has approximately three months of supply, though this can vary widely by specific districts within Calgary.

Factors Shaping the Calgary Housing Market Landscape

Several interconnected factors are influencing the current trajectory of the Calgary housing market:

1. Economic Uncertainty: As mentioned by CREB’s Chief Economist, broader economic uncertainties can dampen consumer confidence and impact big-ticket purchases like homes. This includes concerns about inflation, interest rate stability, and global economic headwinds.
2. Interest Rates: While described as “slightly lower” by CREB in some contexts, the overall interest rate environment in Canada remains a significant factor. Higher borrowing costs compared to the pandemic lows have certainly cooled demand from what it was. Any future movements in the Bank of Canada’s policy rate will continue to be a key influencer.
3. Migration: Calgary has benefited from strong interprovincial migration in recent years, as individuals and families have been attracted by its relative affordability (compared to markets like Vancouver or Toronto) and employment opportunities. These “previous gains in migration” have provided a foundational level of demand.
4. Employment: A stable employment situation prior to recent trade shocks has also supported the housing market. A strong job market typically translates to housing demand. The future trajectory of employment in Alberta, particularly in key sectors like energy, technology, and logistics, will be important.
5. Housing Supply: The recent surge in new listings is perhaps the most impactful factor currently. Increased supply provides more choices for buyers, reduces competition, and alleviates the upward pressure on prices. This is a critical component of the market’s move towards balance.
6. Affordability: While Calgary remains more affordable than some other major Canadian cities, the price growth over the past two years has stretched affordability for many, particularly first-time homebuyers. The current price stabilization is a positive development in this regard.

Calgary Housing Market Forecast 2025: What Can We Expect?

Looking ahead, the Calgary Housing Market Forecast 2025 suggests a continuation of these more balanced conditions. Several elements support this outlook:

• Stabilized Prices: With supply catching up to demand in many segments, the rapid price escalation seen previously is unlikely to return in the immediate future. We can expect prices to remain relatively stable, with modest fluctuations depending on property type and location.
• Moderate Sales Activity: Sales volumes are anticipated to remain aligned with long-term averages, rather than the record highs of the recent past. Buyer activity will likely be more measured and cautious.
• Inventory Levels: Listings are expected to remain healthy, providing buyers with a good selection of properties. This should keep the market from reverting to the highly competitive conditions seen in 2022-2023.
• Economic Dependence: The performance of the broader Alberta economy will play a crucial role. Positive economic developments could bolster housing demand, while economic slowdowns could exert downward pressure.

It is important to note that forecasting in real estate is subject to many variables. Unforeseen economic shifts, changes in government policy, or global events can all impact market trajectories. However, based on current trends and data, the Calgary housing market in 2025 appears poised for a period of relative stability and normalcy rather than dramatic swings.

Will Calgary Housing Market Crash? Addressing the Core Concern

This is a question on the minds of many, especially those who have witnessed significant price appreciation in a relatively short period: Is Calgary housing market going to crash?

Based on the available data and expert analysis from organizations like CREB, a “crash” – typically defined as a rapid and severe drop in prices (e.g., 20-30% or more) across the board – does not appear to be on the immediate horizon for the Calgary housing market.

Here’s why a widespread crash is considered unlikely at this juncture:

1. Balanced Conditions, Not Freefall: The market is currently described as moving into “balanced territory.” This means supply and demand are becoming more aligned. A crash is usually preceded by an extreme imbalance, such as a massive oversupply coupled with a sudden collapse in demand.
2. Underlying Demand: Calgary’s economy has diversified over the years, and the city continues to attract people due to its lifestyle and job opportunities. As CREB noted, past migration gains are still supporting the market. This provides a foundational level of demand that helps cushion against severe downturns.
3. Price Moderation, Not Collapse: Prices are not plummeting. They are stabilizing, with some segments seeing very modest year-over-year declines (e.g., the overall benchmark price down 1.4%) while others still show slight gains (e.g., detached and semi-detached). This is characteristic of a market correction or cooling, not a crash.
4. Inventory Levels: While inventory has increased significantly (more than doubling from last year’s trough), it’s moving towards more typical historical levels, not an unmanageable glut.
5. Lending Practices: Mortgage lending standards in Canada have remained relatively stringent, especially compared to conditions that led to housing crashes in other countries in the past. This helps prevent an unsustainable build-up of risky mortgages.

What Calgary is experiencing is more accurately termed a “market correction” or a “return to normalcy” after an unusually hot period. Sales are slowing from unsustainable peaks, and price growth is moderating as supply increases. This is generally seen as a healthy adjustment, allowing the market to catch its breath.

While a widespread crash is improbable, certain segments or price points within the housing market Calgary might experience more pronounced price adjustments if supply significantly outpaces demand in those specific niches. It’s also crucial to monitor broader economic factors, as a severe recession could alter this outlook. However, the current evidence points towards a market that is adjusting and stabilizing, not crashing.

Resilience and Opportunity in the Evolving Calgary Housing Market

The Calgary housing market is clearly in a phase of transition. The frenetic pace of the past couple of years has given way to more balanced conditions, characterized by a moderation in sales activity, an increase in housing supply, and stabilization in prices. While economic uncertainties persist and require ongoing monitoring, the narrative is one of adjustment rather than a dramatic downturn. The Calgary Housing Market Forecast 2025 points towards continued stability, offering a more predictable environment for both buyers and sellers.

Concerns about a market crash, while understandable after periods of rapid growth, appear largely unfounded based on current data. The market is demonstrating resilience, supported by underlying demand and a move towards healthier inventory levels. This shift creates new opportunities: buyers face less competition and more choice, while sellers can still achieve fair market value with realistic expectations and proper positioning. The key is to stay informed, understand the nuances of the Calgary housing market, and make decisions based on sound financial planning and expert advice.

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