Calgary’s housing market is experiencing a shift. After a scorching hot spring, the summer of 2024 ushered in a moderation period, with September solidifying this trend. While prices remain elevated compared to the previous year, sales have slowed, and inventory levels are on the rise, particularly in the higher-price segments. This detailed analysis will delve into the key takeaways from September 2024’s market data, providing valuable insights for buyers and sellers navigating Calgary’s evolving real estate landscape.
Sales Slowdown, Yet Still Above Average
September 2024 witnessed a total of 2,003 homes sold in Calgary, marking a 17% decline compared to the record-breaking figures of September 2023. This slowdown can be attributed to several factors, including rising interest rates, increased inventory, and a shift in consumer confidence. However, it’s crucial to maintain perspective. Despite the decline, this year’s sales figures still surpass the long-term average for September by 16%. This suggests a market correction rather than a full-blown crash, indicating a healthy adjustment towards a more balanced market.
The Price Puzzle: Up Overall, But With Variations
The benchmark price for all residential properties in Calgary settled at $596,900 in September 2024. This represents a slight dip from August 2024, suggesting a potential plateau in price growth. However, it’s important to note that this figure is still a significant 5% higher than September 2023, indicating that overall, prices remain elevated.
Interestingly, the price growth isn’t uniform across all housing types. Detached homes experienced a nearly 9% year-over-year increase, with a benchmark price of $757,100. This segment continues to be highly sought-after, driven by factors such as increased space requirements and a desire for larger properties. On the other hand, apartment condominiums showed the most substantial jump, with prices rising by almost 14% to reach a benchmark price of $345,000. This surge can be attributed to factors such as affordability, increased demand from first-time homebuyers, and a growing preference for low-maintenance living.
Further analysis reveals that within the detached home segment, properties with updated kitchens and larger lots are experiencing higher appreciation rates. Similarly, in the condo market, newer buildings with desirable amenities and central locations are commanding higher prices compared to older developments.
Note: September 2024 witnessed a total of 2,003 homes sold in Calgary, marking a 17% decline compared to the record-breaking figures of September 2023
Inventory Rises, Shifting Market Dynamics
A significant trend in September 2024 was the surge in new listings, reaching 3,687 – the highest for September since 2008. This increase in supply, particularly in the higher price ranges, is contributing to the easing of pressure on home prices. As more options become available, buyers have greater negotiating power, leading to a more balanced market.
However, a shortage of lower-priced homes persists, creating challenges for first-time homebuyers and those with limited budgets. This segment of the market remains highly competitive, with limited inventory and strong demand driving prices upward. Addressing this affordability challenge is crucial for ensuring a healthy and inclusive housing market in Calgary.
Detached Homes: A Tale of Two Markets
The detached home market in Calgary presents an interesting dichotomy. While homes priced over $700,000 saw a 9% increase in sales, those below $600,000 experienced a sharp decline. This highlights the affordability challenges faced by many potential buyers, particularly those seeking entry-level detached homes.
The higher end of the detached market continues to perform well, driven by factors such as strong demand from move-up buyers and those seeking luxury properties. However, the lower end of the market is facing headwinds due to affordability constraints and limited inventory. This disparity underscores the importance of addressing the supply shortage in the lower price brackets to ensure a more balanced and accessible detached home market.
Surrounding Cities Outpace Calgary in Price Growth
While the Calgary housing market shows signs of moderation, nearby cities like Cochrane, Okotoks, Canmore, and High River have experienced even more substantial increases in detached home prices. This could be due to various factors, including increased demand from those seeking more affordable options outside of Calgary or those drawn to the unique lifestyle offerings of these communities.
| City | Price Growth (%) | Avg. Detached Home Price | Population | Economic Drivers | Key Demographics |
| Cochrane | 9.30% | $681,800 | 5.2% increase | Tourism, small businesses | Families seeking a relaxed lifestyle |
| Okotoks | 10% | $713,400 | 30,000 | Small businesses, retail, services | Families, strong community |
| Canmore | 10.20% | $1,674,900 | N/A | Tourism, recreational properties | Tourists, second-home owners |
| High River | 10.50% | $571,200 | N/A | N/A | Seeking affordable lifestyle, strong community |
This trend of rising prices in surrounding cities highlights the spillover effect of Calgary’s strong housing market. As affordability becomes a concern within Calgary, buyers increasingly look to nearby communities for more affordable options or a different lifestyle. This outward migration can contribute to price appreciation in these surrounding areas.
Expert Opinion: A Balanced Outlook
Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB), offers a balanced perspective on the market. She acknowledges the slowdown in sales but emphasizes that demand remains strong across all price ranges. Lurie anticipates that improved supply and lower lending rates will keep the market active throughout the fall, albeit without the extreme seller’s market conditions that fueled rapid price growth earlier in the year.
Lurie’s insights suggest that the market is transitioning towards a more sustainable pace. While the days of bidding wars and rapid price escalations may be behind us, the underlying fundamentals of the Calgary housing market remain strong. The combination of a diversified economy, population growth, and attractive lifestyle options continue to draw people to the city, supporting long-term demand for housing.
Key Factors Shaping Calgary’s Housing Market
Several interconnected factors are contributing to the current trends in the Calgary housing market:
- Economic conditions: Calgary’s economy, while diversified, is still heavily influenced by the energy sector. Fluctuations in oil prices and energy industry activity can impact consumer confidence and housing demand.
- Interest rates: Interest rates play a crucial role in housing affordability. Rising interest rates increase borrowing costs, making homeownership more expensive and potentially dampening demand.
- Population growth: Calgary’s population continues to grow, driven by factors such as immigration, interprovincial migration, and natural increase. This population growth contributes to housing demand, particularly in the rental and entry-level segments.
- Consumer confidence: Buyer and seller confidence plays a significant role in market activity. Economic uncertainty, interest rate hikes, and shifting market dynamics can influence consumer sentiment and affect buying and selling decisions.
- Government policies: Government policies related to housing, such as mortgage regulations, tax incentives, and affordable housing initiatives, can impact the market by influencing affordability, supply, and demand.
Understanding these factors and their interplay is crucial for navigating the Calgary housing market. By staying informed about economic trends, interest rate movements, population growth, and government policies, buyers and sellers can make more informed decisions.
What’s Next for Calgary’s Housing Market?
Predicting the future of any housing market is challenging, but several indicators suggest a continued period of moderation in Calgary. The increase in inventory, coupled with potential interest rate hikes and economic uncertainty, could further cool price growth. However, strong demand, particularly for lower-priced homes, is likely to prevent a significant downturn.
The market is expected to remain relatively balanced, with neither buyers nor sellers holding a distinct advantage. This means that buyers will have more options to choose from and greater negotiating power, while sellers will need to price their properties competitively to attract buyers.
For those considering buying or selling in the Calgary housing market, it’s crucial to stay informed about the latest trends and consult with a qualified real estate professional to make informed decisions. A knowledgeable realtor can provide valuable insights into market conditions, neighbourhood trends, and pricing strategies, helping you navigate the complexities of Calgary’s evolving real estate landscape.
In conclusion, the Calgary housing market is undergoing a period of adjustment, transitioning from a seller’s market to a more balanced state. While prices remain elevated compared to last year, sales have slowed, and inventory is increasing. This presents both challenges and opportunities for buyers and sellers. Staying informed about the market It’s important to note that these predictions are subject to change, as various factors, including potential shifts in interest rates, economic conditions, and government policies influence the market.
