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4th December, 25
Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data
Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data On multiple recent occasions, we've seen bonds make a moderate move on days with important economic reports, but not in response to those economic reports. Thursday was the latest example. The 8:30am jobless claims data was undoubtedly a tradeable event based on the big volume spike at the time, but the higher yields were already in place by the time the data came out. Moreover, there wasn't much of a response afterward. Bonds spent the rest of the day drifting sideways to slightly weaker, but still very much in the prevailing pre-Thanksgiving range (i.e.
Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data
Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data On multiple recent occasions, we've seen bonds make a moderate move on days with important economic reports, but not in response to those economic reports. Thursday was the latest example. The 8:30am jobless claims data was undoubtedly a tradeable event based on the big volume spike at the time, but the higher yields were already in place by the time the data came out. Moreover, there wasn't much of a response afterward. Bonds spent the rest of the day drifting sideways to slightly weaker, but still very much in the prevailing pre-Thanksgiving range (i.e.
4th December, 25
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Higher This Week
Today's mortgage rates a just a hair higher than yesterday's and although yesterday's rates were reasonably close to last Friday's, they were still definitely higher. That last assertion is at odds with some of the mortgage rate media coverage you may encounter today, but there's a logical reason. Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate survey every Thursday. It consists of an average of the rates from each of the previous 5 business days (Thursday through Wednesday). Thus, by the time it is reported, it is a fairly stale indication of rate movement if there's been any reasonable amount
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Higher This Week
Today's mortgage rates a just a hair higher than yesterday's and although yesterday's rates were reasonably close to last Friday's, they were still definitely higher. That last assertion is at odds with some of the mortgage rate media coverage you may encounter today, but there's a logical reason. Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate survey every Thursday. It consists of an average of the rates from each of the previous 5 business days (Thursday through Wednesday). Thus, by the time it is reported, it is a fairly stale indication of rate movement if there's been any reasonable amount
4th December, 25
Home Value, Due Diligence, AVM, Refi Products; Extensive HELOC, DSCR, Non-QM Product Changes
“No plan survives contact with the enemy.” While Freddie rolled out its AI plans, for some lenders, mortgage companies owned by builders, and the builders themselves, can sometimes be viewed as adversaries. In dealing with buyers of new homes, builders and their lender arm often adjust seller credits, par rates, and buy down programs. Builders, of course, don’t want to actually lower their prices since they want high comp prices for appraisals going forward. According to the Wall Street Journal, the nation’s largest homebuilders are giving buyers big concessions. The nation’s biggest
Home Value, Due Diligence, AVM, Refi Products; Extensive HELOC, DSCR, Non-QM Product Changes
“No plan survives contact with the enemy.” While Freddie rolled out its AI plans, for some lenders, mortgage companies owned by builders, and the builders themselves, can sometimes be viewed as adversaries. In dealing with buyers of new homes, builders and their lender arm often adjust seller credits, par rates, and buy down programs. Builders, of course, don’t want to actually lower their prices since they want high comp prices for appraisals going forward. According to the Wall Street Journal, the nation’s largest homebuilders are giving buyers big concessions. The nation’s biggest
4th December, 25
Lowest Initial Jobless Claims Reading Since 2022
Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session, but the Jobless Claims data won't be any help. Initial claims fell to 191k--the lowest they've been since 2022 and one of the lowest readings since the 1960s. An isolated extreme in weekly data isn't worth as much market drama as a similarly extreme result in something like the big jobs report--especially when continued jobless claims aren't doing anything interesting--but at the very least, this argues against serious labor market concern. The Revelio payroll count of -9k came out 15 minutes later, and argues back in the other
Lowest Initial Jobless Claims Reading Since 2022
Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session, but the Jobless Claims data won't be any help. Initial claims fell to 191k--the lowest they've been since 2022 and one of the lowest readings since the 1960s. An isolated extreme in weekly data isn't worth as much market drama as a similarly extreme result in something like the big jobs report--especially when continued jobless claims aren't doing anything interesting--but at the very least, this argues against serious labor market concern. The Revelio payroll count of -9k came out 15 minutes later, and argues back in the other
3rd December, 25
Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally
Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally Who knows how today would have ended up if the relevant econ data had come in stronger than expected. Perhaps that would have been enough to see an earlier, more threatening sell-off in bonds. As it stands, we're heading out the door with moderate gains, even if we can't give clear credit to the data (because the gains happened before the data). Thursday brings another chance to see if different data (Jobless Claims, Challenger Layoffs, Revelio payrolls) will be worth any more of a response. Otherwise bonds are just grinding out a range ahead of next
Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally
Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally Who knows how today would have ended up if the relevant econ data had come in stronger than expected. Perhaps that would have been enough to see an earlier, more threatening sell-off in bonds. As it stands, we're heading out the door with moderate gains, even if we can't give clear credit to the data (because the gains happened before the data). Thursday brings another chance to see if different data (Jobless Claims, Challenger Layoffs, Revelio payrolls) will be worth any more of a response. Otherwise bonds are just grinding out a range ahead of next
3rd December, 25
Mortgage Rates Back Down Near Recent Lows
Mortgage rates improved more noticeably today, and while the average rate isn't quite as low as it was last week, it's fairly close. Rates are based on movement in the bond market. Bonds were most likely to move in response to one or both of today's big economic reports. Oddly enough, most of the bond market improvement was seen overnight, BEFORE the economic data came out. Nonetheless, the data definitely didn't hurt
Mortgage Rates Back Down Near Recent Lows
Mortgage rates improved more noticeably today, and while the average rate isn't quite as low as it was last week, it's fairly close. Rates are based on movement in the bond market. Bonds were most likely to move in response to one or both of today's big economic reports. Oddly enough, most of the bond market improvement was seen overnight, BEFORE the economic data came out. Nonetheless, the data definitely didn't hurt
3rd December, 25
DPA, DSCR Processing, Buy Before you Sell Products; FDM/AHM Partnership; LOs & MISMO
Both Dick Van Dyke and Mel Brooks turn 100, Dick in less than two weeks and Mel next summer. 100 years is a long time, and it’s a big number. Despite faster economic growth than peers, the U.S. faces rising deficits and debt levels above 100 percent of GDP. If this impacts our debt ratings further, look out. Political gridlock and reluctance to enact meaningful tax increases or spending cuts echo challenges seen in the UK and France, where governments struggle to satisfy voters, lenders, and economic needs simultaneously. Recent market jitters, such as the spike in Treasury yields in April,
DPA, DSCR Processing, Buy Before you Sell Products; FDM/AHM Partnership; LOs & MISMO
Both Dick Van Dyke and Mel Brooks turn 100, Dick in less than two weeks and Mel next summer. 100 years is a long time, and it’s a big number. Despite faster economic growth than peers, the U.S. faces rising deficits and debt levels above 100 percent of GDP. If this impacts our debt ratings further, look out. Political gridlock and reluctance to enact meaningful tax increases or spending cuts echo challenges seen in the UK and France, where governments struggle to satisfy voters, lenders, and economic needs simultaneously. Recent market jitters, such as the spike in Treasury yields in April,
3rd December, 25
Stronger Start, Mostly Before ADP Data
10yr yields are almost 4bps lower in early trading and the ADP employment report came in at -32k vs a +10k forecast. The logical conclusion would be that the data is responsible for the rally, but there was actually a remarkably light reaction to the data, both in terms of volume and volatility. Most of the gains arrived between 6am and 7:30am ET and yields are actually back in line with pre-ADP levels by 8:30am. The morning's next big report is ISM Services at 10am ET
Stronger Start, Mostly Before ADP Data
10yr yields are almost 4bps lower in early trading and the ADP employment report came in at -32k vs a +10k forecast. The logical conclusion would be that the data is responsible for the rally, but there was actually a remarkably light reaction to the data, both in terms of volume and volatility. Most of the gains arrived between 6am and 7:30am ET and yields are actually back in line with pre-ADP levels by 8:30am. The morning's next big report is ISM Services at 10am ET
2nd December, 25
Steady Gains Throughout The Day
Steady Gains Throughout The Day Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory although MBS were fairly quick to get back to 'unchanged' while 10yr Treasuries couldn't duplicate that feat until the afternoon. There were no clear correlations with other markets and no notable risks on the econ calendar. The gains were slow and steady enough to suggest an absence of discrete catalysts. That could change on Wednesday with the confluence of ADP and ISM Services--both capable of influencing the bond market, even before the shutdown data dynamics temporarily magnified private data's importance.
Steady Gains Throughout The Day
Steady Gains Throughout The Day Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory although MBS were fairly quick to get back to 'unchanged' while 10yr Treasuries couldn't duplicate that feat until the afternoon. There were no clear correlations with other markets and no notable risks on the econ calendar. The gains were slow and steady enough to suggest an absence of discrete catalysts. That could change on Wednesday with the confluence of ADP and ISM Services--both capable of influencing the bond market, even before the shutdown data dynamics temporarily magnified private data's importance.
2nd December, 25
Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower
Unlike Monday, which saw a fairly brisk move toward higher rates, Tuesday barely budged. Additionally, the budging occurred in a friendly direction with the average lender offering rates that were just a hair lower than yesterday's. Starting tomorrow morning, this week's potential volatility will be higher. Each day brings several economic reports with the power to push rates higher or lower. Wednesday/tomorrow is probably chief among these due to the ADP employment report and a closely watched service sector report from ISM.
Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower
Unlike Monday, which saw a fairly brisk move toward higher rates, Tuesday barely budged. Additionally, the budging occurred in a friendly direction with the average lender offering rates that were just a hair lower than yesterday's. Starting tomorrow morning, this week's potential volatility will be higher. Each day brings several economic reports with the power to push rates higher or lower. Wednesday/tomorrow is probably chief among these due to the ADP employment report and a closely watched service sector report from ISM.