What percentage of the industry is shifting credit policies? Yesterday the industry learned that Fairway Independent and Movement are “now implementing VantageScore 4.0 (owned by Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion)… The VantageScore 4.0 credit scoring model is offered through Experian, Equifax and TransUnion, as well as mortgage technology providers including Xactus, Calyx, and Optimal Blue. Its use in mortgage was pioneered by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as the Federal Home Loan Banks, FHA, and the VA. Keeping up on things can be a full-time job, and Chrisman Demo Day returns…
Unrounded core CPI came in at 0.335, which nearly rounds to 0.4% versus an expectations of 0.2%. This is a big surprise when it comes to inflation data, and it matters more at the moment given the rapidly evolving Fed rate hike outlook. Recent Fed speeches caused a significant pull-back in rate hike expectations. Today's inflation data undoes most of that progress. It may not cause rates to break into new highs, but it makes a strong case for this week's lows being the floor until further notice. Confused about the market reaction? Let's talk more. For those wondering why…
Light Volatility and Modest Gains Ahead of CPI Bonds were modestly stronger in the overnight session in a move that is easiest to attribute to ongoing supportive buying in response to recently higher yields in the long end of the market. Fed Funds Futures were also in play as implied Fed Funds tracked fairly well with 10yr yields in terms of movement. Oil prices did little to explain the AM gains, but correlated well with an insignificant pull-back between 8:30-10:00am ET. Afternoon comments from Williams (who only sees the need for 1 more rate hike and then no hikes in 2027) helped the short…
It was an uneventfully good day for mortgage rates. Unlike the average day over the past several weeks, there was minimal intraday volatility in the underlying bond market. This allowed the average lender to issue rates once this morning and avoid intraday rate changes. Fortunately, the overnight market movement was in our favor today as traders continued finding value in recently higher bond yields. Rates are based on the bond market where higher yields increasingly create demand among investors. In 2023, when the 10yr Treasury yield hit 5%, we saw a solid show of support from…
If you want privacy, you may not want to buy a new car: Many new cards share your data with third-party companies via technology. Here at the MBA National, tech is not only a popular topic, but, thanks to AddyAI, there is an Agentic registered “attendee” named Adele. The robot’s job is roaming the halls. Are you doing your “dream” job? They vary by country, by the way, and here’s a map. Some jobs are “unsung,” and one of the topics at the MMLA event in Michigan, the MBAC event in South Carolina, and here at “The National” in Chicago is how lenders need to focus on some of these roles as they…
Tuesday morning joins a fairly long list of trading days where overnight bond market movement cannot be cleanly connected to news headlines or econ data. With yields having recently pushed up to multi-decade highs, and Fed policy expectations constantly shifting, this will be an ongoing phenomenon. Over the past several sessions, there's definitely been some organic buying in longer-term bonds (i.e. investors concluding 10yr yields around 5.3% represent a good entry point). The overnight rally followed a shift in Fed rate expectations. Oil prices correlated but the timing was off when it…
Another Nice Round Trip For Bonds--Especially MBS Nothing new or interesting happened today in terms of underlying events, news, or data. But the price action itself was a different story. While the moves weren't extreme, it was nonetheless notable that bonds lost ground in a very intentional way this morning only to reverse course and make it back to positive territory by the close. Yields are still broadly sideways at long-term highs, but we now have a second straight day having closed near the week's best levels. MBS outperformed Treasuries a bit, and officially turned green by the…
Even though the underlying bond market is in slightly weaker shape today, mortgage rates ended up trickling just a bit lower than yesterday's latest levels. This can happen on occasions when there is a strong rally late in the previous day. Mortgage lenders don't end up passing along all of that improvement in rate sheets and some of them decide to wait for the following day to make the adjustments. In addition, this morning's slightly weaker bond market performance reversed course around 11am and paved the way for multiple lenders to adjust their rates lower over the past few hours.…
As Robbie and I prepare to head to Chicago this weekend for the “MBA National,” yesterday I was speaking with someone at the bar at Legs Inn in Northern Michigan. (Yeah, it’s somethin’.) We shouldn’t be afraid to talk about the economy, or politics, and I told her that I’ve been in capital markets for over 40 years and there are plenty of clever sayings about economics. One of them is, “The stock market is not the economy.” How good is the U.S. economy? You wouldn’t know it by stocks. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. writes, “U.S. equity market performance is increasingly being led by the…
After yesterday's nice comeback, here's how we're thinking about today. Fridays before 3-day weekends: frequently see a move to the sidelines among certain investors. Traders who were tactically long bonds over the past 2 days could be booking profit. Translation: some of the strength over the past 2 days could turn to weakness for purely mechanical reasons. frequently see less determination to aggressively pursue new trading ideas in the absence of compelling econ data. often "don't count" when it comes to forming our view of prevailing short term trends. Bonds are starting out…
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