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30th June, 26
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day We expected volatility would pick up on Tuesday for one reason or another and it did not disappoint. Sadly, the direction of the movement was disappointing as bonds sold off steadily virtually all day. While there was a bit of selling after the job openings data at 10am ET, the bulk of the weakness is likely due to additional quarter-end position squaring and rebalancing (the same thing that helped bonds last Wednesday). This is mechanical, emotionless, non-reactive trading conducted simply to dial in certain levels of bond holdings to match investment
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day We expected volatility would pick up on Tuesday for one reason or another and it did not disappoint. Sadly, the direction of the movement was disappointing as bonds sold off steadily virtually all day. While there was a bit of selling after the job openings data at 10am ET, the bulk of the weakness is likely due to additional quarter-end position squaring and rebalancing (the same thing that helped bonds last Wednesday). This is mechanical, emotionless, non-reactive trading conducted simply to dial in certain levels of bond holdings to match investment
30th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Edge Modestly Higher
Starting last Thursday, mortgage rates have barely budged. In terms of our 30yr fixed index, the maximum day-over-day change has been 0.02% since then. The past 3 business days have seen rates either hold steady or move cautiously lower. Today's rates moved higher, but at just as slow a pace. The underlying bond market primarily took cues from trading motivations that didn't have anything to do with typical considerations like economic data and news headlines. As we discussed last week, some of the world's biggest investment accounts have been in the process of rebalancing their portfolios for
Mortgage Rates Edge Modestly Higher
Starting last Thursday, mortgage rates have barely budged. In terms of our 30yr fixed index, the maximum day-over-day change has been 0.02% since then. The past 3 business days have seen rates either hold steady or move cautiously lower. Today's rates moved higher, but at just as slow a pace. The underlying bond market primarily took cues from trading motivations that didn't have anything to do with typical considerations like economic data and news headlines. As we discussed last week, some of the world's biggest investment accounts have been in the process of rebalancing their portfolios for
30th June, 26
Medical Profession, Refi Products; Fee Standardization Thoughts; Investors and ROAD Act
Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights needed to make faster, confident decisions. Lead a smarter housing journey with Experian. Today’s has an interview with Experian’s Likhitha Mahendar Singh how the modern first-time homebuyer has evolved, why rental payment data is reshaping how lenders identify mortgage-ready borrowers, and how a data-driven approach can help better target, underwrite, and serve the next
Medical Profession, Refi Products; Fee Standardization Thoughts; Investors and ROAD Act
Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights needed to make faster, confident decisions. Lead a smarter housing journey with Experian. Today’s has an interview with Experian’s Likhitha Mahendar Singh how the modern first-time homebuyer has evolved, why rental payment data is reshaping how lenders identify mortgage-ready borrowers, and how a data-driven approach can help better target, underwrite, and serve the next
30th June, 26
Data Ramps Up And Another Dash of Quarter-End Trading
Before looking at trading screens this morning, the first order of business would have been to mention the ramp up in economic calendar activity. While the line item count is respectable, it's really only the 10am Job Openings data that packs enough of a punch to represent any serious volatility risk. Even then, sometimes it hits and sometimes it doesn't. Bonds are starting out slightly weaker thanks to another dash of quarter-end position squaring. It arrived at almost the exact same time as the last Wednesday's installment, but in the form of selling instead of buying. Thankfully, it was a
Data Ramps Up And Another Dash of Quarter-End Trading
Before looking at trading screens this morning, the first order of business would have been to mention the ramp up in economic calendar activity. While the line item count is respectable, it's really only the 10am Job Openings data that packs enough of a punch to represent any serious volatility risk. Even then, sometimes it hits and sometimes it doesn't. Bonds are starting out slightly weaker thanks to another dash of quarter-end position squaring. It arrived at almost the exact same time as the last Wednesday's installment, but in the form of selling instead of buying. Thankfully, it was a
29th June, 26
Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here
Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here Monday made it clear that traders are playing by the typical summertime, holiday week rules which often see the first day of the week result in very low volume and volatility. While participation should remain lighter than normal, that's no guaranty of an ongoing absence of volatility. Even if there are fewer traders in the room, they can still move markets if econ data or Fed-speak (Warsh is on the calendar for Wednesday) bring any surprises. We're also interested to see if there are visible shifts that transcend data/news based on the recently outsized role
Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here
Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here Monday made it clear that traders are playing by the typical summertime, holiday week rules which often see the first day of the week result in very low volume and volatility. While participation should remain lighter than normal, that's no guaranty of an ongoing absence of volatility. Even if there are fewer traders in the room, they can still move markets if econ data or Fed-speak (Warsh is on the calendar for Wednesday) bring any surprises. We're also interested to see if there are visible shifts that transcend data/news based on the recently outsized role
29th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Inch to Another 6-Week Low
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest level since May 14th. Most of the recent drop happened last Wednesday, but each day since then has added a microscopic improvement. Today was no exception with the 30yr fixed rate index falling a mere 0.01%--the lowest increment we measure. The calendar of economic events was completely empty and consequential news headlines were just as scarce. This will change over the next 3 days on at least one front. Big-ticket econ data comes out on each of the next 3 mornings. Thursday's jobs report is typically the most important scheduled monthly data, but
Mortgage Rates Inch to Another 6-Week Low
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest level since May 14th. Most of the recent drop happened last Wednesday, but each day since then has added a microscopic improvement. Today was no exception with the 30yr fixed rate index falling a mere 0.01%--the lowest increment we measure. The calendar of economic events was completely empty and consequential news headlines were just as scarce. This will change over the next 3 days on at least one front. Big-ticket econ data comes out on each of the next 3 mornings. Thursday's jobs report is typically the most important scheduled monthly data, but
29th June, 26
Verification, AI Processing, Digital Closing Tools; Ways to Think About AI; Conventional Conforming News
Lenders often ask about improving their execution, and STRATMOR’s current blog is “Pricing That Can Help Borrowers.” MLOs occasionally ask about an online tool that can help potential borrowers understand the process. Here’s something for your new clients, especially those who are first-time home buyers: a short quiz to get them started on what to think about in financing a home. For those of us in the industry who ask about some of the terms in our business, here’s something to keep in your back pocket: The MISMO Business Glossary delivers a curated set of standardized business
Verification, AI Processing, Digital Closing Tools; Ways to Think About AI; Conventional Conforming News
Lenders often ask about improving their execution, and STRATMOR’s current blog is “Pricing That Can Help Borrowers.” MLOs occasionally ask about an online tool that can help potential borrowers understand the process. Here’s something for your new clients, especially those who are first-time home buyers: a short quiz to get them started on what to think about in financing a home. For those of us in the industry who ask about some of the terms in our business, here’s something to keep in your back pocket: The MISMO Business Glossary delivers a curated set of standardized business
29th June, 26
3.5-Day Week Starting Out Slow and Flat
At the risk of jinxing it, Monday is pretty much already in the back as an uneventful start to a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and fully closed on Friday). Bonds were very flat overnight and are near unchanged levels in the first few hours. Unchanged is good in this case as it means we're holding in a friendlier trading range under the 4.42% technical level in 10yr yields. Today is the only data-free day of the week and the next 3 are action-packed by comparison. While we're expecting lower volume than normal due to the time of year and the holiday, this doesn't necessarily
3.5-Day Week Starting Out Slow and Flat
At the risk of jinxing it, Monday is pretty much already in the back as an uneventful start to a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and fully closed on Friday). Bonds were very flat overnight and are near unchanged levels in the first few hours. Unchanged is good in this case as it means we're holding in a friendlier trading range under the 4.42% technical level in 10yr yields. Today is the only data-free day of the week and the next 3 are action-packed by comparison. While we're expecting lower volume than normal due to the time of year and the holiday, this doesn't necessarily
26th June, 26
Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform
Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform Friday ended up offering a boring conclusion to a week that had at least some measure of excitement on Wednesday. Bonds started a hair stronger, lost ground modestly and then rallied to the day's best levels by noon. From there, 10yr yields went perfectly sideways in an ultra narrow range. MBS managed to hang on to just barely positive levels but gave up about an eighth of a point during the time Treasuries were holding steady. Technically, this is underperformance in a vacuum, but in the bigger picture, MBS have been doing just fine in relative
Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform
Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform Friday ended up offering a boring conclusion to a week that had at least some measure of excitement on Wednesday. Bonds started a hair stronger, lost ground modestly and then rallied to the day's best levels by noon. From there, 10yr yields went perfectly sideways in an ultra narrow range. MBS managed to hang on to just barely positive levels but gave up about an eighth of a point during the time Treasuries were holding steady. Technically, this is underperformance in a vacuum, but in the bigger picture, MBS have been doing just fine in relative
26th June, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows
Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest level in more than a month yesterday with MND's 30yr fixed index falling to 6.53% from 6.55% on Wednesday. Today was completely unchanged at 6.53%, thus maintaining the lowest level since May 14th, 2026. There weren't any dramatic developments behind the scenes in term of economic data or news headlines (not that we'd expect them when rates hold perfectly flat). This week's broader improvement can be attributed to buying demand in the bond market owing to large investors rebalancing their stock/bond portfolios before the end of the quarter. As
Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows
Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest level in more than a month yesterday with MND's 30yr fixed index falling to 6.53% from 6.55% on Wednesday. Today was completely unchanged at 6.53%, thus maintaining the lowest level since May 14th, 2026. There weren't any dramatic developments behind the scenes in term of economic data or news headlines (not that we'd expect them when rates hold perfectly flat). This week's broader improvement can be attributed to buying demand in the bond market owing to large investors rebalancing their stock/bond portfolios before the end of the quarter. As