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24th July, 26
New Home Sales Regain Some Lost Ground
New home sales rebounded modestly in June, recovering some of the previous month's decline, though activity remained below year-ago levels as elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges continued to weigh on demand. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000 , up 1.6% from May but 5.6% lower than one year earlier. In the bigger picture, this sector has been broadly flat ever since the post-covid volatility died down in early 2023. Inventory edged slightly lower during the month. The number
New Home Sales Regain Some Lost Ground
New home sales rebounded modestly in June, recovering some of the previous month's decline, though activity remained below year-ago levels as elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges continued to weigh on demand. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000 , up 1.6% from May but 5.6% lower than one year earlier. In the bigger picture, this sector has been broadly flat ever since the post-covid volatility died down in early 2023. Inventory edged slightly lower during the month. The number
24th July, 26
Refis Take a Back Seat as Purchase Demand Rebounds
Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as stronger home purchase demand offset a modest decline in refinancing, even with borrowing costs climbing to their highest level since last August. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.9% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 17. Purchase applications increased 6% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 0.2% higher than the same week one year ago. The gain suggests that improving housing inventory continues to support buyer activity despite elevated
Refis Take a Back Seat as Purchase Demand Rebounds
Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as stronger home purchase demand offset a modest decline in refinancing, even with borrowing costs climbing to their highest level since last August. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.9% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 17. Purchase applications increased 6% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 0.2% higher than the same week one year ago. The gain suggests that improving housing inventory continues to support buyer activity despite elevated
24th July, 26
AI, Non-QM Products; Deep Dive on AI; Morgan Stanley Interview on Risk
Odds are, anything you buy was transported using diesel fuel, the price of which has shot up after Russia banned exports of it, impacting farmers, trains, trucks… kind of nearly everything. Today is “Pie and Beer” Day in Utah, aka Pioneer Day, and having parades is costly. It was also celebrated last year, and the year before, and the year before. What were we talking about a year ago? We were interested in how FHA and VA wanted early payoffs when loans traded below par. At that point, JPMorgan Chase was very active in MBS issuance, and most banks preferred short duration products like
AI, Non-QM Products; Deep Dive on AI; Morgan Stanley Interview on Risk
Odds are, anything you buy was transported using diesel fuel, the price of which has shot up after Russia banned exports of it, impacting farmers, trains, trucks… kind of nearly everything. Today is “Pie and Beer” Day in Utah, aka Pioneer Day, and having parades is costly. It was also celebrated last year, and the year before, and the year before. What were we talking about a year ago? We were interested in how FHA and VA wanted early payoffs when loans traded below par. At that point, JPMorgan Chase was very active in MBS issuance, and most banks preferred short duration products like
24th July, 26
Token Support in Bonds After Oil Drops Overnight
It's a straightforward morning in the bond market. We're not seeing any of the sorts of "unseen hand" trading that accounted for the timing of yesterday's pre-market weakness. We simply have oil prices erasing about half of yesterday's rise. Bond yields are trying their best to be able to say the same, but they're not recovering quite as much as oil. It doesn't much matter. If anything, it's reassuring to see the correlation persist as it underpins the expectation that bonds are at least capable of a better recovery if oil moves back down to/toward June's levels. Econ data is very light.
Token Support in Bonds After Oil Drops Overnight
It's a straightforward morning in the bond market. We're not seeing any of the sorts of "unseen hand" trading that accounted for the timing of yesterday's pre-market weakness. We simply have oil prices erasing about half of yesterday's rise. Bond yields are trying their best to be able to say the same, but they're not recovering quite as much as oil. It doesn't much matter. If anything, it's reassuring to see the correlation persist as it underpins the expectation that bonds are at least capable of a better recovery if oil moves back down to/toward June's levels. Econ data is very light.
23rd July, 26
Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives
Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives Oil lurched higher again overnight which kept generalized pressure on the bond market and the Fed rate outlook. The nearness to long-term highs had traders feeling very reluctant to step in and "buy the dip" in bond prices. This is the kind of move you'd rather see play out in full before reloading TSY longs. Complicating factors included earnings season (and the prospect for corporate issuance detracting from TSY/MBS demand), pre-ECB defensiveness, and MBS-specific underperformance. The latter could simply be the result of a line in the sand being
Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives
Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives Oil lurched higher again overnight which kept generalized pressure on the bond market and the Fed rate outlook. The nearness to long-term highs had traders feeling very reluctant to step in and "buy the dip" in bond prices. This is the kind of move you'd rather see play out in full before reloading TSY longs. Complicating factors included earnings season (and the prospect for corporate issuance detracting from TSY/MBS demand), pre-ECB defensiveness, and MBS-specific underperformance. The latter could simply be the result of a line in the sand being
23rd July, 26
Highest Rates in Over a Year, But There's a Silver Lining
Mortgage moved higher today, and while the jump was no larger than the one seen on Monday, both were 'above average' and both took rates in the wrong direction. In addition, the steady weakness throughout the month of July finally resulted in yesterday's rates match the highest level in nearly a year. In other words, it wouldn't have taken much of a jump for today's rates to be the highest in more than a year. Our daily 30yr fixed rate index rose from 6.77% yesterday to 6.85% today--the highest since June 23rd, 2025. But here's the silver lining: July 2025 through February 2026 was
Highest Rates in Over a Year, But There's a Silver Lining
Mortgage moved higher today, and while the jump was no larger than the one seen on Monday, both were 'above average' and both took rates in the wrong direction. In addition, the steady weakness throughout the month of July finally resulted in yesterday's rates match the highest level in nearly a year. In other words, it wouldn't have taken much of a jump for today's rates to be the highest in more than a year. Our daily 30yr fixed rate index rose from 6.77% yesterday to 6.85% today--the highest since June 23rd, 2025. But here's the silver lining: July 2025 through February 2026 was
23rd July, 26
Hedging, VantageScore 4.0, AI Accounting, Non-QM, Reverse Products; Higher Oil, Higher Rates
There are only twelve (12) legislative days left until the November election, and today on The Big Picture attorney Mitch Kider and I will discuss what that means for lenders as well as other regulatory topics. Rates aren’t doing much. Deals continue to happen as the big get bigger (the latest example being Union Home buying AmeriTrust to shoot for $20 billion a year; Rocket closed on a multibillion-dollar credit agreement with JPMorganChase that will replace the facility it took out while two of its large acquisitions were pending last year) and lawsuits are filed, and are resolved (the
Hedging, VantageScore 4.0, AI Accounting, Non-QM, Reverse Products; Higher Oil, Higher Rates
There are only twelve (12) legislative days left until the November election, and today on The Big Picture attorney Mitch Kider and I will discuss what that means for lenders as well as other regulatory topics. Rates aren’t doing much. Deals continue to happen as the big get bigger (the latest example being Union Home buying AmeriTrust to shoot for $20 billion a year; Rocket closed on a multibillion-dollar credit agreement with JPMorganChase that will replace the facility it took out while two of its large acquisitions were pending last year) and lawsuits are filed, and are resolved (the
23rd July, 26
Bearish Breakout For All The Normal Reasons
Welcome to post-Iran-War 2026. The only real relief for bonds since then was seen in June when there was hope that the war was over or at least winding down. Gas prices are back to multi-year highs. Inflation fears are back at the forefront. Even the ECB is flagging rate hike risks that could play out by the end of the year. This morning is seeing more of the same in terms of another pop in oil prices push yields higher overnight followed by additional selling in early domestic trading. Technicals could be adding emphasis given the breakout of various support levels. The ECB announcement
Bearish Breakout For All The Normal Reasons
Welcome to post-Iran-War 2026. The only real relief for bonds since then was seen in June when there was hope that the war was over or at least winding down. Gas prices are back to multi-year highs. Inflation fears are back at the forefront. Even the ECB is flagging rate hike risks that could play out by the end of the year. This morning is seeing more of the same in terms of another pop in oil prices push yields higher overnight followed by additional selling in early domestic trading. Technicals could be adding emphasis given the breakout of various support levels. The ECB announcement
22nd July, 26
Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds
Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds Bonds had a bad day for the 3rd time this week. The weakness was reasonable in light of fuel prices hitting the highest level since 2022 by some measures. That said, the intraday correlation between bonds and oil/gas/etc wasn't overly compelling. We continue to view oil as a bad actor in the background--something that adds general pressure via the inflation outlook. Nitty gritty market movers require conjecture today. The only thing jumping off the screen was a vertical leap by the short end of the curve between 9:30am-10:00am ET. The timing
Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds
Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds Bonds had a bad day for the 3rd time this week. The weakness was reasonable in light of fuel prices hitting the highest level since 2022 by some measures. That said, the intraday correlation between bonds and oil/gas/etc wasn't overly compelling. We continue to view oil as a bad actor in the background--something that adds general pressure via the inflation outlook. Nitty gritty market movers require conjecture today. The only thing jumping off the screen was a vertical leap by the short end of the curve between 9:30am-10:00am ET. The timing
22nd July, 26
Mortgage Rates Inch Up to 11-Month High
We have bad news and slightly less bad news. Starting with the latter, today's mortgage rates are only marginally higher than they were yesterday with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate up 0.02%. The bad news is that this takes our rate index to 6.77%--the highest level since July 28th, 2025. Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and bonds remain under pressure from a renewed surge in fuel prices. Specifically, higher fuel prices and additional uncertainty about the Iran war increase inflation expectations, and it's inflation that is the actual thorn in the bond market's side.
Mortgage Rates Inch Up to 11-Month High
We have bad news and slightly less bad news. Starting with the latter, today's mortgage rates are only marginally higher than they were yesterday with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate up 0.02%. The bad news is that this takes our rate index to 6.77%--the highest level since July 28th, 2025. Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and bonds remain under pressure from a renewed surge in fuel prices. Specifically, higher fuel prices and additional uncertainty about the Iran war increase inflation expectations, and it's inflation that is the actual thorn in the bond market's side.