Latest news
25th August, 26
Webcasts, UAD 3.6, Compliance, Digital HELOC, MSR Valuation Tools; Rates Quiet
Zillow and Redfin settled their FTC antitrust case, as we figured they would, and certainly technology was involved. With the increase in artificial intelligence, many teachers have gone back to having all writing done in classes, handwritten, or with an electric typewriter. Would parents rather have their child learning something in class from the instructor, or taking that time to write an essay? Students lose much more than grammar skills when they use AI to write. In healthcare, critical legal questions are emerging: who is responsible when inaccurate advice causes harm? What is the
Webcasts, UAD 3.6, Compliance, Digital HELOC, MSR Valuation Tools; Rates Quiet
Zillow and Redfin settled their FTC antitrust case, as we figured they would, and certainly technology was involved. With the increase in artificial intelligence, many teachers have gone back to having all writing done in classes, handwritten, or with an electric typewriter. Would parents rather have their child learning something in class from the instructor, or taking that time to write an essay? Students lose much more than grammar skills when they use AI to write. In healthcare, critical legal questions are emerging: who is responsible when inaccurate advice causes harm? What is the
25th August, 26
Oil Down, Yields Down
No point in wasting time/words on analysis when cause and effect remains so simple. After news regarding potential progress is peace negotiations, an overnight drop in oil prices coincided perfectly with a drop in Treasury yields. The end.
Oil Down, Yields Down
No point in wasting time/words on analysis when cause and effect remains so simple. After news regarding potential progress is peace negotiations, an overnight drop in oil prices coincided perfectly with a drop in Treasury yields. The end.
24th August, 26
Tune Out The Noise (Part 2)
Tune Out The Noise (Part 2) Last week, when Treasury announced higher per-operation limits for the buyback program, we advised tuning out the noise. Specifically, this meant that the announcement was not ever destined to be a material market mover or provide lasting relief for rates despite ample media coverage and the appearance of significance. It's more of the same to start the new week. Treasury sources threw out big numbers in reference to buyback operations by citing the Treasury General Account balance (basically, the government's checking account). Markets didn't care and neither
Tune Out The Noise (Part 2)
Tune Out The Noise (Part 2) Last week, when Treasury announced higher per-operation limits for the buyback program, we advised tuning out the noise. Specifically, this meant that the announcement was not ever destined to be a material market mover or provide lasting relief for rates despite ample media coverage and the appearance of significance. It's more of the same to start the new week. Treasury sources threw out big numbers in reference to buyback operations by citing the Treasury General Account balance (basically, the government's checking account). Markets didn't care and neither
24th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Higher
Mortgage rates are based on bonds, but whereas bonds improved slightly from Friday's levels, mortgage rates are microscopically higher for the average lender. The issue is timing. Mortgage lenders set rates last Friday during a time of day when bonds were at their best levels. In other words, today's improvement is only an improvement relative to Friday's closing levels. If we were to compare just the time of day when lenders set mortgage rates, bonds are flat to slightly weaker.
Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Higher
Mortgage rates are based on bonds, but whereas bonds improved slightly from Friday's levels, mortgage rates are microscopically higher for the average lender. The issue is timing. Mortgage lenders set rates last Friday during a time of day when bonds were at their best levels. In other words, today's improvement is only an improvement relative to Friday's closing levels. If we were to compare just the time of day when lenders set mortgage rates, bonds are flat to slightly weaker.
24th August, 26
Borrower Analysis, 1st Lien HELOC, Ginnie eNote Products; Webcasts Approaching; NEXA/UMortgage Deal
“People make their wealth out of one investment. People keep their wealth by diversifying their investments.” Owning mortgage servicing rights has created wealth for many companies, and STRATMOR’s current blog is, “Those Monthly Payments Go Somewhere.” I am glad that all my 401(k) isn’t in Agency shares: Fannie Mae’s stock is down 42 percent this year, and Freddie’s is down 45 percent. Although there is a steady stream of informal communication, things have been somewhat quiet formally from the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency Bill Pulte and the FHFA in recent
Borrower Analysis, 1st Lien HELOC, Ginnie eNote Products; Webcasts Approaching; NEXA/UMortgage Deal
“People make their wealth out of one investment. People keep their wealth by diversifying their investments.” Owning mortgage servicing rights has created wealth for many companies, and STRATMOR’s current blog is, “Those Monthly Payments Go Somewhere.” I am glad that all my 401(k) isn’t in Agency shares: Fannie Mae’s stock is down 42 percent this year, and Freddie’s is down 45 percent. Although there is a steady stream of informal communication, things have been somewhat quiet formally from the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency Bill Pulte and the FHFA in recent
24th August, 26
Slightly Stronger Start Mostly Due to Oil. Treasury News Fails to Inspire (Again)
Once again, Treasury is out with news about bond buying plans with two officials saying the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be used to fund long-end buybacks. TGA is Treasury's bank account. It gets money from taxes, Treasury issuance, tariffs, etc. Therefore, any way you slice it, Treasury bond buying = government spending, unlike Fed QE. At best, it can influence the yield curve, but it can't artificially suppress yields overall. This is why the bond market won't embark on a big, sustained rally in response to Treasury bond buying, no matter how big a deal financial media makes of the
Slightly Stronger Start Mostly Due to Oil. Treasury News Fails to Inspire (Again)
Once again, Treasury is out with news about bond buying plans with two officials saying the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be used to fund long-end buybacks. TGA is Treasury's bank account. It gets money from taxes, Treasury issuance, tariffs, etc. Therefore, any way you slice it, Treasury bond buying = government spending, unlike Fed QE. At best, it can influence the yield curve, but it can't artificially suppress yields overall. This is why the bond market won't embark on a big, sustained rally in response to Treasury bond buying, no matter how big a deal financial media makes of the
21st August, 26
Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon
Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon Without any data or compelling market movers, bonds came into the day light on inspiration. Low volume/liquidity left the door open for any determined traders to have a bigger-than-normal influence on the market. That arguably happened between 9am and 10:30am ET with both stocks and bonds losing ground simultaneously. This coincided perfectly with an uptick in Fed rate hike expectations seen via near-term Fed Funds Futures. Market Movement Recap 08:34 AM Sideways to slightly stronger overnight. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down
Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon
Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon Without any data or compelling market movers, bonds came into the day light on inspiration. Low volume/liquidity left the door open for any determined traders to have a bigger-than-normal influence on the market. That arguably happened between 9am and 10:30am ET with both stocks and bonds losing ground simultaneously. This coincided perfectly with an uptick in Fed rate hike expectations seen via near-term Fed Funds Futures. Market Movement Recap 08:34 AM Sideways to slightly stronger overnight. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down
21st August, 26
Mortgage Rates Drift Modestly Higher
For all practical purposes, Friday's mortgage rates were unchanged versus Thursday's, but if we're splitting hairs, the average lender rose 0.01% to 6.77% for a top tier 30yr fixed. While many news outlets continue focusing on the mid-week announcement regarding Treasury's bond buyback program, today's bond market volatility was unrelated. Current levels are close to where they were before Wednesday's announcement and that makes sense to anyone who Wednesday's market reaction as 'overdone.' The upcoming week offers much more economic data in addition to potentially relevant
Mortgage Rates Drift Modestly Higher
For all practical purposes, Friday's mortgage rates were unchanged versus Thursday's, but if we're splitting hairs, the average lender rose 0.01% to 6.77% for a top tier 30yr fixed. While many news outlets continue focusing on the mid-week announcement regarding Treasury's bond buyback program, today's bond market volatility was unrelated. Current levels are close to where they were before Wednesday's announcement and that makes sense to anyone who Wednesday's market reaction as 'overdone.' The upcoming week offers much more economic data in addition to potentially relevant
21st August, 26
Housing Starts Drop in July as Permits Point to Stronger Future Activity
Residential construction pulled back in July as housing starts and completions declined from June levels, while building permits rebounded. The latest Census Bureau data suggests builders remained cautious about active construction, even as the increase in permits pointed to somewhat stronger activity ahead. Privately owned housing starts fell 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.239 million , down 13.5% from the July 2025 pace. Single-family starts declined 9.9% to 808k , while starts for buildings containing five units or more fell to 421k . Building permits reversed course as
Housing Starts Drop in July as Permits Point to Stronger Future Activity
Residential construction pulled back in July as housing starts and completions declined from June levels, while building permits rebounded. The latest Census Bureau data suggests builders remained cautious about active construction, even as the increase in permits pointed to somewhat stronger activity ahead. Privately owned housing starts fell 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.239 million , down 13.5% from the July 2025 pace. Single-family starts declined 9.9% to 808k , while starts for buildings containing five units or more fell to 421k . Building permits reversed course as
21st August, 26
Pending Home Sales Slip 2.3% in July
Pending home sales declined again in July as elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices continued to weigh on buyer demand. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, fell 2.3% from June and was down 2.2% from a year earlier, reaching its lowest level since January 2026. The latest report points to continued affordability challenges for prospective buyers. Higher borrowing costs and elevated home prices are keeping many buyers on the sidelines, while homes are taking longer to sell and fewer buyers are
Pending Home Sales Slip 2.3% in July
Pending home sales declined again in July as elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices continued to weigh on buyer demand. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, fell 2.3% from June and was down 2.2% from a year earlier, reaching its lowest level since January 2026. The latest report points to continued affordability challenges for prospective buyers. Higher borrowing costs and elevated home prices are keeping many buyers on the sidelines, while homes are taking longer to sell and fewer buyers are