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11th March, 26
General Selling Spree Continues
General Selling Spree Continues It hasn't exactly been perfectly linear, but the month of March has generally been a one-way trade for the bond market. In less than 2 weeks, 10yr yields are up from 3.95 to 4.22+ without any provocation from econ data. Today was another example as CPI came in right in line with forecasts. Despite that apparently decent news, yields rose steadily throughout the morning, and we can't really blame oil prices today (even if higher energy costs are assumed to be very much on the bond market's mind). Newswires the war costing $11bln last week also don't help,
General Selling Spree Continues
General Selling Spree Continues It hasn't exactly been perfectly linear, but the month of March has generally been a one-way trade for the bond market. In less than 2 weeks, 10yr yields are up from 3.95 to 4.22+ without any provocation from econ data. Today was another example as CPI came in right in line with forecasts. Despite that apparently decent news, yields rose steadily throughout the morning, and we can't really blame oil prices today (even if higher energy costs are assumed to be very much on the bond market's mind). Newswires the war costing $11bln last week also don't help,
11th March, 26
Highest Rates in More Than a Month
Mortgage rates moved higher on Wednesday despite only a modest increase in oil prices. The latter is currently a part of any conversation about interest rates as higher energy costs have fueled inflation expectations. Higher inflation begets higher rates, all else equal. But rates take other cues, or course. One key consideration is that of "supply." In other words, how many new dollars of debt are being issued--not just by the U.S. government, but across the entire bond market. At present, government issuance is high and only expected to get higher. Even though congressional approval is
Highest Rates in More Than a Month
Mortgage rates moved higher on Wednesday despite only a modest increase in oil prices. The latter is currently a part of any conversation about interest rates as higher energy costs have fueled inflation expectations. Higher inflation begets higher rates, all else equal. But rates take other cues, or course. One key consideration is that of "supply." In other words, how many new dollars of debt are being issued--not just by the U.S. government, but across the entire bond market. At present, government issuance is high and only expected to get higher. Even though congressional approval is
11th March, 26
Fraud Guard, Capital Markets Data, QC, POS Products; PHH and OptiFunder News; Non-Agency
Technology is a two-edged sword. Have you ever heard of “surveillance pricing?” “Big brother” knows a lot about you. Ridesharing companies like Uber, for instance, can charge users more when they have lower battery life on their phone. “Democrats in Pennsylvania have introduced a bill that would stop retailers from changing the price of essential goods and services in a given 24 hour period.” I’d like to know what “essential” means. When computers and data go awry, look out. And when you combine that with regulators and the U.S. Government, problems can be all-consuming. “
Fraud Guard, Capital Markets Data, QC, POS Products; PHH and OptiFunder News; Non-Agency
Technology is a two-edged sword. Have you ever heard of “surveillance pricing?” “Big brother” knows a lot about you. Ridesharing companies like Uber, for instance, can charge users more when they have lower battery life on their phone. “Democrats in Pennsylvania have introduced a bill that would stop retailers from changing the price of essential goods and services in a given 24 hour period.” I’d like to know what “essential” means. When computers and data go awry, look out. And when you combine that with regulators and the U.S. Government, problems can be all-consuming. “
11th March, 26
Overnight Weakness, Limited CPI Impact, MBS Outperformance
There was a very high bar for today's CPI to cause any serious market reaction due to all the new inflationary impulses that may be created by record volatility in energy markets that hasn't yet made it into the official data. In other words, CPI is a time capsule for a bygone era and the market is already trading the implications on future inflation reports to the best of its ability using oil prices as a proxy. Before the data, 10yr yields were a few bps higher overnight and haven't moved since the data. MBS are unchanged to a hair stronger after accounting for "the roll." Rather than
Overnight Weakness, Limited CPI Impact, MBS Outperformance
There was a very high bar for today's CPI to cause any serious market reaction due to all the new inflationary impulses that may be created by record volatility in energy markets that hasn't yet made it into the official data. In other words, CPI is a time capsule for a bygone era and the market is already trading the implications on future inflation reports to the best of its ability using oil prices as a proxy. Before the data, 10yr yields were a few bps higher overnight and haven't moved since the data. MBS are unchanged to a hair stronger after accounting for "the roll." Rather than
10th March, 26
Afternoon Weakness in Bonds Despite Lower Oil Prices. Will CPI Matter?
Afternoon Weakness in Bonds Despite Lower Oil Prices. Will CPI Matter? Days like today are a problem for a "set it and forget it" mentality when it comes to energy prices and the bond market. On many occasions since the beginning of last week, the correlation between oil prices and bond yields has been plain to see. Additionally, oil price volatility has been the only way to explain much of the movement in bonds. Now this afternoon, bond yields broke higher despite no clear cues from oil. We are left to lean on things like a weak 3yr Treasury auction and general supply pressures surrounding a
Afternoon Weakness in Bonds Despite Lower Oil Prices. Will CPI Matter?
Afternoon Weakness in Bonds Despite Lower Oil Prices. Will CPI Matter? Days like today are a problem for a "set it and forget it" mentality when it comes to energy prices and the bond market. On many occasions since the beginning of last week, the correlation between oil prices and bond yields has been plain to see. Additionally, oil price volatility has been the only way to explain much of the movement in bonds. Now this afternoon, bond yields broke higher despite no clear cues from oil. We are left to lean on things like a weak 3yr Treasury auction and general supply pressures surrounding a
10th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower
Today's mortgage rates are lower when compared to yesterday's average prior to 4pm ET. Later in the afternoon, multiple lenders announced improvements as the bond market rallied in response to geopolitical headlines. If we use those later, lower rates as a baseline, today's average is roughly unchanged. There were no major economic reports today--not that bonds have been too keen on reacting to econ data anyway. War-related headlines remain the biggest risk for potential volatility despite historically significant econ data on tap in the coming days.
Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower
Today's mortgage rates are lower when compared to yesterday's average prior to 4pm ET. Later in the afternoon, multiple lenders announced improvements as the bond market rallied in response to geopolitical headlines. If we use those later, lower rates as a baseline, today's average is roughly unchanged. There were no major economic reports today--not that bonds have been too keen on reacting to econ data anyway. War-related headlines remain the biggest risk for potential volatility despite historically significant econ data on tap in the coming days.
10th March, 26
BBYS, Trigger Lead, Document Generation, AI Rollout Tools; Pennymac's Spector on Strategy
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders What if the biggest driver of servicing costs isn’t your volume, staffing, or vendor stack… but the gaps between them? Clarifire’s new blog, “What’s Really Driving Cost Per Loan in Servicing?” explores a hidden operational challenge many servicing leaders face: systems that are technically connected but operationally fragmented. Every time work moves between systems, teams, or departments, delays and exceptions creep in, and those small gaps scale quickly across thousands of loans. Late-2025 data shows the cost to service non
BBYS, Trigger Lead, Document Generation, AI Rollout Tools; Pennymac's Spector on Strategy
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders What if the biggest driver of servicing costs isn’t your volume, staffing, or vendor stack… but the gaps between them? Clarifire’s new blog, “What’s Really Driving Cost Per Loan in Servicing?” explores a hidden operational challenge many servicing leaders face: systems that are technically connected but operationally fragmented. Every time work moves between systems, teams, or departments, delays and exceptions creep in, and those small gaps scale quickly across thousands of loans. Late-2025 data shows the cost to service non
10th March, 26
Starting Out Weaker vs 5pm or Stronger vs 3pm
One major milestone in anyone's market-watching journey is when they learn that "the close" (close of business, closing bell, etc.) means different things to different people. If we consider electronic futures trading or cash trading in overseas markets, bonds are only really closed for 2 hours a day anyway. But the market needs a standardized time to mark the day's final prices/yields. For most, that's 3pm ET for Treasuries. For others, it's 5pm ET or even 4:45pm ET. Why talk about this now? Simply put, if you join "Club 3pm," then bonds are stronger to start the day despite being
Starting Out Weaker vs 5pm or Stronger vs 3pm
One major milestone in anyone's market-watching journey is when they learn that "the close" (close of business, closing bell, etc.) means different things to different people. If we consider electronic futures trading or cash trading in overseas markets, bonds are only really closed for 2 hours a day anyway. But the market needs a standardized time to mark the day's final prices/yields. For most, that's 3pm ET for Treasuries. For others, it's 5pm ET or even 4:45pm ET. Why talk about this now? Simply put, if you join "Club 3pm," then bonds are stronger to start the day despite being
9th March, 26
Big Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields
Big Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields There was no denying the spillover from oil price volatility to the bond market this morning, even if it took quite a lot of the former to move the latter. At its apex, the oil surge was the largest daily move on record at over $26/bbl (just over a 28% jump). This translated to a 10yr yield jump of almost 8bps to start the overnight session. But things were already reversing course quickly by the time European trading began. Then, by the start of U.S. trading, 10yr yields were already back below 4.18% and continued to fall back to
Big Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields
Big Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields There was no denying the spillover from oil price volatility to the bond market this morning, even if it took quite a lot of the former to move the latter. At its apex, the oil surge was the largest daily move on record at over $26/bbl (just over a 28% jump). This translated to a 10yr yield jump of almost 8bps to start the overnight session. But things were already reversing course quickly by the time European trading began. Then, by the start of U.S. trading, 10yr yields were already back below 4.18% and continued to fall back to
9th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Finish Flat After Starting Higher
Mortgage rates began the day at the highest levels in a month. The move up versus Friday was only moderate, but Friday's levels were already fairly close to early Feb's highs. Oil prices continue putting upward pressure on rates, but with several caveats. It takes quite a big move in oil to motivate enough movement in the bond market to impact mortgage rates. With this morning's spike being the largest on record at the time, today certainly qualified. But over the course of the day, both oil and bonds reversed course, thus allowing the average lender to adjust rates back in line with Friday's
Mortgage Rates Finish Flat After Starting Higher
Mortgage rates began the day at the highest levels in a month. The move up versus Friday was only moderate, but Friday's levels were already fairly close to early Feb's highs. Oil prices continue putting upward pressure on rates, but with several caveats. It takes quite a big move in oil to motivate enough movement in the bond market to impact mortgage rates. With this morning's spike being the largest on record at the time, today certainly qualified. But over the course of the day, both oil and bonds reversed course, thus allowing the average lender to adjust rates back in line with Friday's