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2nd May, 25
Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way
Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way Bonds definitely paused their long term relationship with economic data in wake of the tariff announcement in early April, which was logical given the headline-drive volatility and uncertainty. 2 weeks ago, the connection looked to be returning. Now over the past 2 days, it's back with a vengeance. It's not that any of the data has been stunningly strong, but it's been much better than what some market participants were prepared to see. Friday's jobs report is the 2nd time in 2 days where traders have been able (or
Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way
Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way Bonds definitely paused their long term relationship with economic data in wake of the tariff announcement in early April, which was logical given the headline-drive volatility and uncertainty. 2 weeks ago, the connection looked to be returning. Now over the past 2 days, it's back with a vengeance. It's not that any of the data has been stunningly strong, but it's been much better than what some market participants were prepared to see. Friday's jobs report is the 2nd time in 2 days where traders have been able (or
2nd May, 25
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Higher This Week
Mortgage rates had a nice little run, moving down from last Monday's highs of 6.98% (average, top tier 30yr fixed) to a mid-week low just over 6.80%. Even after yesterday's modest bounce, we were still in stronger territory for the week. But now today, the average lender is back up to 6.90%. While that's not as high as the beginning of last week, it's noticeably above the end-of-week mark of 6.84%. In other words, rates are higher this week. Note: you may see other headlines suggesting the opposite, but those will almost certainly be citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Higher This Week
Mortgage rates had a nice little run, moving down from last Monday's highs of 6.98% (average, top tier 30yr fixed) to a mid-week low just over 6.80%. Even after yesterday's modest bounce, we were still in stronger territory for the week. But now today, the average lender is back up to 6.90%. While that's not as high as the beginning of last week, it's noticeably above the end-of-week mark of 6.84%. In other words, rates are higher this week. Note: you may see other headlines suggesting the opposite, but those will almost certainly be citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate
2nd May, 25
Home Price Appreciation Remains, But Interesting Trend Emerges
Both of the major purveyors of home price indices have been in agreement for the better part of a year that the average home is appreciating between 4 and 5 percent per year. The FHFA House Price Index showed only a 0.1% uptick in February while the Case Shiller Home Price Index rose 0.7%. In annual terms, Case Shiller was at 4.5% and FHFA fell from 5.0 to 3.9%. In the bigger picture, these changes don't amount to much. Things get a bit more interesting when we examine the monthly movement. First off, and more by way of a general backdrop, the past few years have seen a
Home Price Appreciation Remains, But Interesting Trend Emerges
Both of the major purveyors of home price indices have been in agreement for the better part of a year that the average home is appreciating between 4 and 5 percent per year. The FHFA House Price Index showed only a 0.1% uptick in February while the Case Shiller Home Price Index rose 0.7%. In annual terms, Case Shiller was at 4.5% and FHFA fell from 5.0 to 3.9%. In the bigger picture, these changes don't amount to much. Things get a bit more interesting when we examine the monthly movement. First off, and more by way of a general backdrop, the past few years have seen a
2nd May, 25
Mortgage Applications Contract Slightly, But Remain Above 2 Year Average
Mortgage rates were in the process of falling by the end of last week, but they made additional headway during the first half of the present week. That means this week's mortgage application survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) may be reflecting hesitation due to the elevated rates at the beginning of last week. The chart below shows the day to day rate movement (MND) during the survey week as well as the weekly survey rate (MBA). Mortgage rates are not perfectly correlated with mortgage application activity--especially for purchases. But the fairly quick rate
Mortgage Applications Contract Slightly, But Remain Above 2 Year Average
Mortgage rates were in the process of falling by the end of last week, but they made additional headway during the first half of the present week. That means this week's mortgage application survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) may be reflecting hesitation due to the elevated rates at the beginning of last week. The chart below shows the day to day rate movement (MND) during the survey week as well as the weekly survey rate (MBA). Mortgage rates are not perfectly correlated with mortgage application activity--especially for purchases. But the fairly quick rate
2nd May, 25
LO/Borrower Engagement, HELOC, LO Tech Tools; Agency and Investor News; Fairly Strong Jobs Numbers
Fortunately for the readers of this Commentary, we don’t receive federal funding, so it won’t be cut… Unlike groups like NPR and PBS which the Trump Administration call “biased.” Most media have advertising as a source of funding, and speaking of ads, Mark Zuckerberg says ads will soon be handled entirely by AI. Doubt it. But for those interested in lending and artificial intelligence, “artificial” being the key word, here is a story about how high rates and low volumes are accelerating the Rise of AI-Enabled Mortgage Lenders. But technology isn’t going away, and is often a
LO/Borrower Engagement, HELOC, LO Tech Tools; Agency and Investor News; Fairly Strong Jobs Numbers
Fortunately for the readers of this Commentary, we don’t receive federal funding, so it won’t be cut… Unlike groups like NPR and PBS which the Trump Administration call “biased.” Most media have advertising as a source of funding, and speaking of ads, Mark Zuckerberg says ads will soon be handled entirely by AI. Doubt it. But for those interested in lending and artificial intelligence, “artificial” being the key word, here is a story about how high rates and low volumes are accelerating the Rise of AI-Enabled Mortgage Lenders. But technology isn’t going away, and is often a
2nd May, 25
Reasonably Strong Jobs Report. Reasonably Weak Reaction in Bonds
It is shaping up to be a straightforward morning for the bond market. There was a justified and logical amount of anticipation for today's numbers and the reaction is just as logical. Specifically, jobs came in stronger (177k vs 130k). This isn't a big beat as far as beats go (especially considering negative revisions to previous months), but it does push back on fears that the economy sliding toward recession in any sort of alarming pace. The resulting sell-off in bonds was immediate and moderate. It looks set to leave bond yields right in the middle of their pre-tariff trading range.
Reasonably Strong Jobs Report. Reasonably Weak Reaction in Bonds
It is shaping up to be a straightforward morning for the bond market. There was a justified and logical amount of anticipation for today's numbers and the reaction is just as logical. Specifically, jobs came in stronger (177k vs 130k). This isn't a big beat as far as beats go (especially considering negative revisions to previous months), but it does push back on fears that the economy sliding toward recession in any sort of alarming pace. The resulting sell-off in bonds was immediate and moderate. It looks set to leave bond yields right in the middle of their pre-tariff trading range.
1st May, 25
Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility
Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility Today's ISM Manufacturing data played the role of coalmine canary today, and although it's not the most vigorous canary anyone's ever seen, it also wasn't dead. That wasn't good for bonds today as ISM is viewed as a good early indicator at times when the market is waiting for a certain shoe to drop (in this case, tariff/policy/uncertainty impact on econ data). ISM is also often heavily traded due to its proximity to the big jobs report (in this case, the following morning). If nothing else, the market's willingness to react to economic data once
Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility
Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility Today's ISM Manufacturing data played the role of coalmine canary today, and although it's not the most vigorous canary anyone's ever seen, it also wasn't dead. That wasn't good for bonds today as ISM is viewed as a good early indicator at times when the market is waiting for a certain shoe to drop (in this case, tariff/policy/uncertainty impact on econ data). ISM is also often heavily traded due to its proximity to the big jobs report (in this case, the following morning). If nothing else, the market's willingness to react to economic data once
1st May, 25
Rates Pull Back Slightly After Stronger Economic Data
After enjoying a calm, steady winning streak so far this week, mortgage rates finally experienced a bump back toward slightly higher levels on Thursday. The move followed the release of a closely watched report on the manufacturing sector. The economic data wasn't strong in outright terms. In fact, it suggested contraction in the sector. But what matters is that it was stronger than the market expected. In general, stronger data causes weakness in the bond market which, in turn, results in mortgage lenders offering higher rates. Today's change was just as small as any other day this week
Rates Pull Back Slightly After Stronger Economic Data
After enjoying a calm, steady winning streak so far this week, mortgage rates finally experienced a bump back toward slightly higher levels on Thursday. The move followed the release of a closely watched report on the manufacturing sector. The economic data wasn't strong in outright terms. In fact, it suggested contraction in the sector. But what matters is that it was stronger than the market expected. In general, stronger data causes weakness in the bond market which, in turn, results in mortgage lenders offering higher rates. Today's change was just as small as any other day this week
1st May, 25
Secondary Database, AI Information, Consulting, DSCR, Non-QM Products; Freddie Earnings $62 Billion
May Day… whether you celebrate today as “about” halfway between the Northern Hemisphere's Spring equinox and Midsummer solstice associated with maypoles, or a day that commemorates the historic struggles and gains made by workers and the labor movement, mostly associated with communist Russia (which has never been our ally in 80 years), it’s up to you. So, let’s stick with the seasons. As we approach summer, many in the Western U.S. are gearing up for forest fires. Despite the growing threat of them, many Americans continue to move into high-risk areas. A LendingTree study found that
Secondary Database, AI Information, Consulting, DSCR, Non-QM Products; Freddie Earnings $62 Billion
May Day… whether you celebrate today as “about” halfway between the Northern Hemisphere's Spring equinox and Midsummer solstice associated with maypoles, or a day that commemorates the historic struggles and gains made by workers and the labor movement, mostly associated with communist Russia (which has never been our ally in 80 years), it’s up to you. So, let’s stick with the seasons. As we approach summer, many in the Western U.S. are gearing up for forest fires. Despite the growing threat of them, many Americans continue to move into high-risk areas. A LendingTree study found that
1st May, 25
ISM Manufacturing Data Surprises Bonds (Not in a Good Way)
2 weeks ago, we got our first hint that the market was once again ready to respond to economic data after a few weeks of tariff headlines being the only game in town. The hint came from the price data inside the S&P Manufacturing PMI data. It was especially notable at the time because it singlehandedly and quite obviously reversed a nice little morning rally following Trump's clarification on Powell's tenure. ISM's version of PMI is trader's PMI of choice in the U.S. so today's release was hotly anticipated. Would it show the same jump seen in the S&P version? Spoiler alert
ISM Manufacturing Data Surprises Bonds (Not in a Good Way)
2 weeks ago, we got our first hint that the market was once again ready to respond to economic data after a few weeks of tariff headlines being the only game in town. The hint came from the price data inside the S&P Manufacturing PMI data. It was especially notable at the time because it singlehandedly and quite obviously reversed a nice little morning rally following Trump's clarification on Powell's tenure. ISM's version of PMI is trader's PMI of choice in the U.S. so today's release was hotly anticipated. Would it show the same jump seen in the S&P version? Spoiler alert
