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29th July, 26
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Fed Reaction?
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Fed Reaction? Tough day for the casual observer to try to make sense of what happened. There's even some disagreement between the not-so-casual observers. Let's focus on what we can know for sure. The Fed didn't hike. The market was pricing a 1 in 3 chance of a hike, so the shortest end of the curve logically rallied on that. Longer term rates rallied a bit too, at first. No surprises as of 2:30pm. Warsh's prepared remarks weren't significant, and the rally remained intact. Things began to change rapidly when he suggested looking beyond PCE to a broader set
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Fed Reaction?
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Fed Reaction? Tough day for the casual observer to try to make sense of what happened. There's even some disagreement between the not-so-casual observers. Let's focus on what we can know for sure. The Fed didn't hike. The market was pricing a 1 in 3 chance of a hike, so the shortest end of the curve logically rallied on that. Longer term rates rallied a bit too, at first. No surprises as of 2:30pm. Warsh's prepared remarks weren't significant, and the rally remained intact. Things began to change rapidly when he suggested looking beyond PCE to a broader set
29th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Despite No Fed Rate Hike
Heading into today's Fed announcement, futures markets indicated roughly a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed would hike rates. They did not. This seems like it should have been good news for rates, but there's a catch. Rates exist on a spectrum defined by "duration." Specifically, there are different rates for different lengths of loans. The Fed Funds Rate is relevant to loans of the shortest duration (mostly overnight lending between the largest financial institutions). Mortgage rates, meanwhile, are more closely linked to longer term loans--bonds with durations that average 5-7 years. When a
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Despite No Fed Rate Hike
Heading into today's Fed announcement, futures markets indicated roughly a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed would hike rates. They did not. This seems like it should have been good news for rates, but there's a catch. Rates exist on a spectrum defined by "duration." Specifically, there are different rates for different lengths of loans. The Fed Funds Rate is relevant to loans of the shortest duration (mostly overnight lending between the largest financial institutions). Mortgage rates, meanwhile, are more closely linked to longer term loans--bonds with durations that average 5-7 years. When a
29th July, 26
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 9 – 0 3 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 9 – 0 3 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and
29th July, 26
Hedging, Credit, Anti-Fraud Tools; STRATMOR on Borrower Satisfaction; Fannie's $4 Billion Earnings Quarter
“Technology is dominated by two types of people: Those who understand what they do not manage, and those who manage what they do not understand.” Even if you’re a 90-year-old LO using a rotary phone, the rest of your company, and your borrowers, use technology and new products and need to stay up on them. FICO Score 10T, adoption, for example, has surpassed 70 mortgage lenders. There’s still time to participate in STRATMOR Group’s first module of its 2026 Technology Insight® Study (TIS), the LOS Perception Survey. The survey explores how lenders view today's loan origination systems
Hedging, Credit, Anti-Fraud Tools; STRATMOR on Borrower Satisfaction; Fannie's $4 Billion Earnings Quarter
“Technology is dominated by two types of people: Those who understand what they do not manage, and those who manage what they do not understand.” Even if you’re a 90-year-old LO using a rotary phone, the rest of your company, and your borrowers, use technology and new products and need to stay up on them. FICO Score 10T, adoption, for example, has surpassed 70 mortgage lenders. There’s still time to participate in STRATMOR Group’s first module of its 2026 Technology Insight® Study (TIS), the LOS Perception Survey. The survey explores how lenders view today's loan origination systems
29th July, 26
"Pause" Ends in Iran, But Probably Not For The Fed
The big news over the weekend was that the U.S. and Iran paused hostilities--something that led to 2 solid days of gains in the bond market. But in the overnight session, the pause ended as multiple attacks were reported on both sides. Oil rose predictably and bond yields did the same. One "pause" that's less likely to change is the Fed's abstention from hiking or cutting in 2026--at least not today. That may seem like a strong claim given futures pricing showing a 36% chance of a hike today. While a hike is in the realm of possibility, it's not in the 1 in 3 realm. That number represents an
"Pause" Ends in Iran, But Probably Not For The Fed
The big news over the weekend was that the U.S. and Iran paused hostilities--something that led to 2 solid days of gains in the bond market. But in the overnight session, the pause ended as multiple attacks were reported on both sides. Oil rose predictably and bond yields did the same. One "pause" that's less likely to change is the Fed's abstention from hiking or cutting in 2026--at least not today. That may seem like a strong claim given futures pricing showing a 36% chance of a hike today. While a hike is in the realm of possibility, it's not in the 1 in 3 realm. That number represents an
28th July, 26
Giving Peace (And Bonds?) a Chance
Giving Peace (And Bonds?) a Chance Granted, it may be far less promising than some of the more conclusive headlines that led up to previous ceasefires and peace memos, but Tuesday delivered at least a modicum of hope that war sentiment is shifting. In not so many words, an Israeli media outlet reported that U.S./Iran mediators are getting closer to re-implementing the previous memo of understanding that paved the way toward more permanent peace. Markets take this with a grain of salt for obvious reasons, but it was enough to lift stocks and cause a small-but-quick drop in oil prices and bond
Giving Peace (And Bonds?) a Chance
Giving Peace (And Bonds?) a Chance Granted, it may be far less promising than some of the more conclusive headlines that led up to previous ceasefires and peace memos, but Tuesday delivered at least a modicum of hope that war sentiment is shifting. In not so many words, an Israeli media outlet reported that U.S./Iran mediators are getting closer to re-implementing the previous memo of understanding that paved the way toward more permanent peace. Markets take this with a grain of salt for obvious reasons, but it was enough to lift stocks and cause a small-but-quick drop in oil prices and bond
28th July, 26
Verification, HELOC, Non-QM Broker Products; RESPA Thoughts; Redwood Trust 2x Production
Does innovation in lending always means building something new? MISMO’s President Brian Vieaux challenges that familiar assumption, instead, he argues that some of the industry's greatest opportunities lie in eliminating outdated processes that add friction without adding value. Read why the future of mortgage may depend as much on what the industry chooses to let go of as on what it chooses to build next. This kind of forward thinking leads directly to strategy, and tomorrow, Rick Scherer, CMB, Chief Strategy Officer at NewFed Mortgage Corp., sponsored by Lenders One, discusses this kind of
Verification, HELOC, Non-QM Broker Products; RESPA Thoughts; Redwood Trust 2x Production
Does innovation in lending always means building something new? MISMO’s President Brian Vieaux challenges that familiar assumption, instead, he argues that some of the industry's greatest opportunities lie in eliminating outdated processes that add friction without adding value. Read why the future of mortgage may depend as much on what the industry chooses to let go of as on what it chooses to build next. This kind of forward thinking leads directly to strategy, and tomorrow, Rick Scherer, CMB, Chief Strategy Officer at NewFed Mortgage Corp., sponsored by Lenders One, discusses this kind of
28th July, 26
Another Slightly Stronger Start
Once again, bond yields dropped in the overnight session in concert with lower oil prices. Today's iteration is less swift than yesterday's, but after last week's sell-off, we'll take any green we can get. Econ data is light and inconsequential. The 7yr Treasury auction is typically not a source of drama. That leaves focus on any notable war headlines. Otherwise, Wednesday afternoon's Fed announcement remains the week's focal point for clarifying the Fed's policy stance and for the bond market to adjust accordingly. The big picture remains little-changed, but slightly less dire than last
Another Slightly Stronger Start
Once again, bond yields dropped in the overnight session in concert with lower oil prices. Today's iteration is less swift than yesterday's, but after last week's sell-off, we'll take any green we can get. Econ data is light and inconsequential. The 7yr Treasury auction is typically not a source of drama. That leaves focus on any notable war headlines. Otherwise, Wednesday afternoon's Fed announcement remains the week's focal point for clarifying the Fed's policy stance and for the bond market to adjust accordingly. The big picture remains little-changed, but slightly less dire than last
27th July, 26
Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop
Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop While the moment-to-moment correlation between bond yields and oil prices remained almost perfectly intact today, yields were less willing to follow the bigger drops. In other words, if we benchmark bonds to oil price movement, they underperformed the drop in oil prices. $139 billion in Treasury auctions and defensive positioning ahead of Wednesday's Fed announcement likely both contributed to that underperformance. Bottom line: it's encouraging to see the willingness to follow oil, but we won't be able to see more unrestrained trading until
Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop
Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop While the moment-to-moment correlation between bond yields and oil prices remained almost perfectly intact today, yields were less willing to follow the bigger drops. In other words, if we benchmark bonds to oil price movement, they underperformed the drop in oil prices. $139 billion in Treasury auctions and defensive positioning ahead of Wednesday's Fed announcement likely both contributed to that underperformance. Bottom line: it's encouraging to see the willingness to follow oil, but we won't be able to see more unrestrained trading until
27th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Versus Friday's Lows
After bottoming out around 6.5% in late June, mortgage rates moved steadily higher this month, ultimately hitting 6.85% last Thursday--the highest level in over a year. There was a modest recovery on Friday with a fair amount of intraday changes from the average mortgage lender. Because rates are based on bonds, it's worth noting that bonds are in better shape today compared to Friday's latest levels. But if we use Friday's stronger mid-day levels as a baseline, bonds are just barely stronger. As such, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates just barely lower. The key consideration for
Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Versus Friday's Lows
After bottoming out around 6.5% in late June, mortgage rates moved steadily higher this month, ultimately hitting 6.85% last Thursday--the highest level in over a year. There was a modest recovery on Friday with a fair amount of intraday changes from the average mortgage lender. Because rates are based on bonds, it's worth noting that bonds are in better shape today compared to Friday's latest levels. But if we use Friday's stronger mid-day levels as a baseline, bonds are just barely stronger. As such, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates just barely lower. The key consideration for