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9th July, 26
Rates Recover Modestly
Mortgage rates were rapidly approaching 10-month highs as of yesterday afternoon. They managed a friendly bounce today, but it was fairly small with the average lender dropping 0.03% to 6.5% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario. One reason for caution is that the rate improvement looks to be dependent on oil price volatility after this week's resurgence in U.S./Iran tensions. Oil finally moved lower today. In general, lower oil prices imply lower inflation pressure, and lower rates. This isn't always the case, but there are times (like this week and many of the weeks since the start of the Iran
Rates Recover Modestly
Mortgage rates were rapidly approaching 10-month highs as of yesterday afternoon. They managed a friendly bounce today, but it was fairly small with the average lender dropping 0.03% to 6.5% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario. One reason for caution is that the rate improvement looks to be dependent on oil price volatility after this week's resurgence in U.S./Iran tensions. Oil finally moved lower today. In general, lower oil prices imply lower inflation pressure, and lower rates. This isn't always the case, but there are times (like this week and many of the weeks since the start of the Iran
9th July, 26
Hedging, Warehouse, Processing Tools; M&A Results; Declining Demand for Housing
This morning, we head to Los Angeles, the site of the fires in the Pacific Palisades area in January 2025. Governor Gavin Newsom recently announced that FEMA approved California’s request to extend critical disaster assistance for Los Angeles fire survivors. More than 18,000 structures were destroyed. Seventy percent of those families don’t have a place to live yet. On the flip side, a white paper from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) argues any shortages could invert within the next decade and that the reversal carries direct consequences for mortgage brokers and loan officers: "
Hedging, Warehouse, Processing Tools; M&A Results; Declining Demand for Housing
This morning, we head to Los Angeles, the site of the fires in the Pacific Palisades area in January 2025. Governor Gavin Newsom recently announced that FEMA approved California’s request to extend critical disaster assistance for Los Angeles fire survivors. More than 18,000 structures were destroyed. Seventy percent of those families don’t have a place to live yet. On the flip side, a white paper from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) argues any shortages could invert within the next decade and that the reversal carries direct consequences for mortgage brokers and loan officers: "
9th July, 26
Oil and Yields Starting Out Slightly Lower
Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is so small that it doesn't deserve any explanation (i.e. we're close enough to unchanged to say "nothing new is happening"). But given the recent resurgence of correlation between bonds and oil prices, that's probably today's warm bowl of porridge considering the almost 100% directional alignment overnight. Finally, the most speculative and least defensible view is that bonds are finding technical support at the 4.59 which made our "key levels"
Oil and Yields Starting Out Slightly Lower
Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is so small that it doesn't deserve any explanation (i.e. we're close enough to unchanged to say "nothing new is happening"). But given the recent resurgence of correlation between bonds and oil prices, that's probably today's warm bowl of porridge considering the almost 100% directional alignment overnight. Finally, the most speculative and least defensible view is that bonds are finding technical support at the 4.59 which made our "key levels"
8th July, 26
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce Bonds officially closed at the highest yields in more than a month. At one point just before the noon hour, the 10yr was just over 4.59, but ultimately moved back to 4.56. That's only about 1bp higher than yesterday's latest levels (which feels like a win compared to the mid-day trend). Oil prices and bond yields remain in a tight correlation, and once again, war-related headlines set the tone. The most notable among them was a Trump comment regarding the ceasefire being cancelled/over. As was frequently the case in the run-up
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce Bonds officially closed at the highest yields in more than a month. At one point just before the noon hour, the 10yr was just over 4.59, but ultimately moved back to 4.56. That's only about 1bp higher than yesterday's latest levels (which feels like a win compared to the mid-day trend). Oil prices and bond yields remain in a tight correlation, and once again, war-related headlines set the tone. The most notable among them was a Trump comment regarding the ceasefire being cancelled/over. As was frequently the case in the run-up
8th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Back Up Near 10-Month Highs
Mortgage rates have moved higher at a moderate pace over the past 2 days as tensions between The U.S. and Iran see a resurgence. As far as the underlying bond market is concerned, most of the damage was done yesterday. But today's news added emphasis when Trump declared the ceasefire to be over. Rates are based on bonds, but mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day and only change them if bonds make a big enough intraday move. That meant the average lender had to play some catch-up with bond market movement this morning. All that to say that bonds didn't have nearly as
Mortgage Rates Back Up Near 10-Month Highs
Mortgage rates have moved higher at a moderate pace over the past 2 days as tensions between The U.S. and Iran see a resurgence. As far as the underlying bond market is concerned, most of the damage was done yesterday. But today's news added emphasis when Trump declared the ceasefire to be over. Rates are based on bonds, but mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day and only change them if bonds make a big enough intraday move. That meant the average lender had to play some catch-up with bond market movement this morning. All that to say that bonds didn't have nearly as
8th July, 26
AI, AMC, Analytic, Equity, Correspondent Products; Lennar's Lawsuit; Oil Hits Rates (Again)
STRATMOR Group has opened participation for its 2026 Compensation Connection® Study, providing mortgage-specific insights into compensation components, incentive plan structures, compensation percentiles, and more. (Compensation Connection focuses exclusively on mortgage banking, with benchmark comparisons by lender type, size, region, and national averages, plus three-year trending for many metrics. This year's study includes four modules: Retail Sales, Consumer Direct Sales, Fulfillment, and Executive Management. Return your submissions to compconnection@stratmorgroup.com by August 15.)
AI, AMC, Analytic, Equity, Correspondent Products; Lennar's Lawsuit; Oil Hits Rates (Again)
STRATMOR Group has opened participation for its 2026 Compensation Connection® Study, providing mortgage-specific insights into compensation components, incentive plan structures, compensation percentiles, and more. (Compensation Connection focuses exclusively on mortgage banking, with benchmark comparisons by lender type, size, region, and national averages, plus three-year trending for many metrics. This year's study includes four modules: Retail Sales, Consumer Direct Sales, Fulfillment, and Executive Management. Return your submissions to compconnection@stratmorgroup.com by August 15.)
8th July, 26
Only Modestly Weaker After Trump Says Ceasefire is Over
Iran-related headlines have jumped back to the realm of relevance this week and Wednesday morning's overnight session kicked things up another notch. Trump declared the ceasefire to be over and is currently saying peace deal negotiations may not even continue. Markets definitely reacted with oil and Treasury yields spiking overnight. The interesting part is the magnitude of the spike. It was roughly 4bps in terms of 10yr yields and almost half those losses were recovered over the following 2 hours. Oil prices rose roughly $3 and have dropped almost $2 since the initial spike. Bottom line:
Only Modestly Weaker After Trump Says Ceasefire is Over
Iran-related headlines have jumped back to the realm of relevance this week and Wednesday morning's overnight session kicked things up another notch. Trump declared the ceasefire to be over and is currently saying peace deal negotiations may not even continue. Markets definitely reacted with oil and Treasury yields spiking overnight. The interesting part is the magnitude of the spike. It was roughly 4bps in terms of 10yr yields and almost half those losses were recovered over the following 2 hours. Oil prices rose roughly $3 and have dropped almost $2 since the initial spike. Bottom line:
7th July, 26
Hormuz Back in The News
Hormuz Back in The News Iran has attacked a few cargo ships recently and there are repercussions. The peace deal looks to be on shakier ground over the past 24 hours with both sides talking tough on the internet. Just before 3pm, the U.S. referred to Iran's actions as unacceptable and revoked the license that allowed the sale of Iranian oil. Oil prices were higher all day, but especially after that news. Bond yields have been quick to reconnect with their old flame, exhibiting strong correlation over the past 24 hours. The net effect by 3:10pm was a 6.6bp rise in 10yr yields (4.
Hormuz Back in The News
Hormuz Back in The News Iran has attacked a few cargo ships recently and there are repercussions. The peace deal looks to be on shakier ground over the past 24 hours with both sides talking tough on the internet. Just before 3pm, the U.S. referred to Iran's actions as unacceptable and revoked the license that allowed the sale of Iranian oil. Oil prices were higher all day, but especially after that news. Bond yields have been quick to reconnect with their old flame, exhibiting strong correlation over the past 24 hours. The net effect by 3:10pm was a 6.6bp rise in 10yr yields (4.
7th July, 26
Rates Move Back Up With Oil Prices
It's been a while since oil prices were the focal point of the interest rate conversation, but that recently familiar dynamic is once again playing out. The U.S./Iran peace deal is on increasingly shaky ground and the ability for oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz has been increasingly compromised over the past 24 hours. Most recently, headlines suggest the U.S. is withdrawing authorization for Iran to export oil after Iran's recent attacks on cargo vessels. Rising oil prices imply higher inflation. Higher inflation leads to higher rates, all else equal. At the time of this article, the
Rates Move Back Up With Oil Prices
It's been a while since oil prices were the focal point of the interest rate conversation, but that recently familiar dynamic is once again playing out. The U.S./Iran peace deal is on increasingly shaky ground and the ability for oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz has been increasingly compromised over the past 24 hours. Most recently, headlines suggest the U.S. is withdrawing authorization for Iran to export oil after Iran's recent attacks on cargo vessels. Rising oil prices imply higher inflation. Higher inflation leads to higher rates, all else equal. At the time of this article, the
7th July, 26
Servicing, Processing Support, AI Tools ; Lenders Focusing on Consumers; Thoughts on UAD 3.6
During a recent trip overseas, I spoke to a banker who stated, “Technology doesn’t stop at the border.” True. The days of writing out this Commentary or taking an app on a yellow pad of paper are long gone. Today has the STRATMOR Group’s Advisory Angle at 11AM PT. STRATMOR Senior Partners Garth Graham and Nicole Yung explore the latest findings from STRATMOR's Technology Insight Digital Innovations study. The conversation examines where lenders are seeing the greatest return on digital investments, the barriers slowing adoption, and the technologies shaping the next phase of innovation
Servicing, Processing Support, AI Tools ; Lenders Focusing on Consumers; Thoughts on UAD 3.6
During a recent trip overseas, I spoke to a banker who stated, “Technology doesn’t stop at the border.” True. The days of writing out this Commentary or taking an app on a yellow pad of paper are long gone. Today has the STRATMOR Group’s Advisory Angle at 11AM PT. STRATMOR Senior Partners Garth Graham and Nicole Yung explore the latest findings from STRATMOR's Technology Insight Digital Innovations study. The conversation examines where lenders are seeing the greatest return on digital investments, the barriers slowing adoption, and the technologies shaping the next phase of innovation