Latest news
27th March, 26
Bonds Fade De-Escalation Hopes
Markets were presented with an opportunity just before the close yesterday to put their faith in another ceasefire-style announcement, but have instead opted to stick with prevailing momentum (lower stocks, higher yields and oil prices). Part of the reason is that rather than a true ceasefire, the announcement merely delayed a major escalation from this weekend by 10 days. In addition other escalations continue to add up based on overnight reports. Bonds (and stocks and oil) are now in a pattern of fading (a trading term akin to "calling the bluff of") ostensibly hopeful de-escalation
Bonds Fade De-Escalation Hopes
Markets were presented with an opportunity just before the close yesterday to put their faith in another ceasefire-style announcement, but have instead opted to stick with prevailing momentum (lower stocks, higher yields and oil prices). Part of the reason is that rather than a true ceasefire, the announcement merely delayed a major escalation from this weekend by 10 days. In addition other escalations continue to add up based on overnight reports. Bonds (and stocks and oil) are now in a pattern of fading (a trading term akin to "calling the bluff of") ostensibly hopeful de-escalation
26th March, 26
That Escalated Quickly
That Escalated Quickly It would be easy to check in on the bond market at some point on Thursday afternoon and conclude there'd been precipitous escalation in the Iran war or some other big new development putting pressure on bonds (10yr yields up almost 10bps to 4.42+ and MBS down more than 5/8ths). But today's selling was remarkably linear and steady. It began in the overnight session and ramped up at 10:30am ET after a brief correction this morning. If you need a single scapegoat, it's simply "renewed escalation" after yesterday's session raised some hopes for the opposite. Looking a bit
That Escalated Quickly
That Escalated Quickly It would be easy to check in on the bond market at some point on Thursday afternoon and conclude there'd been precipitous escalation in the Iran war or some other big new development putting pressure on bonds (10yr yields up almost 10bps to 4.42+ and MBS down more than 5/8ths). But today's selling was remarkably linear and steady. It began in the overnight session and ramped up at 10:30am ET after a brief correction this morning. If you need a single scapegoat, it's simply "renewed escalation" after yesterday's session raised some hopes for the opposite. Looking a bit
26th March, 26
Rates Leap to Another Multi-Month High
After a somewhat hopeful day on Wednesday, mortgage rates are back to their same old tricks on Thursday. The tricks in question involve following the broader market reaction to the Iran war which has caused significant and almost exclusive upward movement in interest rates for the entire month of March. Average 30yr fixed rates have been at or near the highest levels in 7-8 months over the past 4 days. Today easily took them to slightly higher levels as global financial markets lost ground. The move lines up symmetrically with lower stock prices and higher oil prices. Until there's meaningful
Rates Leap to Another Multi-Month High
After a somewhat hopeful day on Wednesday, mortgage rates are back to their same old tricks on Thursday. The tricks in question involve following the broader market reaction to the Iran war which has caused significant and almost exclusive upward movement in interest rates for the entire month of March. Average 30yr fixed rates have been at or near the highest levels in 7-8 months over the past 4 days. Today easily took them to slightly higher levels as global financial markets lost ground. The move lines up symmetrically with lower stock prices and higher oil prices. Until there's meaningful
26th March, 26
BI, Fraud, Non-QM, HELOC Products; Capital Markets; At What Point Do You Verify Something?
What’s new out there? Well, United Airlines is talking about having couches in the air. There’s always something new in compliance, and there are firms that specialize in it including Feewise, Truework, Asurity, RiskExec, TENA, ACES Quality Management, Firstline Compliance, and LicensingStore.com listed in the Marketplace. There’s always something new impacting mortgage rates. “Rob, I know that short term rates have gone up more than long term rates. Doesn’t an inverted yield curve, where short term rates are higher than long term rates, portend a recession?” Not always, especially
BI, Fraud, Non-QM, HELOC Products; Capital Markets; At What Point Do You Verify Something?
What’s new out there? Well, United Airlines is talking about having couches in the air. There’s always something new in compliance, and there are firms that specialize in it including Feewise, Truework, Asurity, RiskExec, TENA, ACES Quality Management, Firstline Compliance, and LicensingStore.com listed in the Marketplace. There’s always something new impacting mortgage rates. “Rob, I know that short term rates have gone up more than long term rates. Doesn’t an inverted yield curve, where short term rates are higher than long term rates, portend a recession?” Not always, especially
26th March, 26
Oil And Yields Move Back Up
Bonds yields stayed lower than oil prices suggested yesterday afternoon. The same is true this morning, but oil prices have risen enough to lead bonds into weaker territory. Said differently, Iran war de-escalation sentiment is increasingly drying up, thus causing higher oil prices, higher bond yields, and lower stock prices. Additionally, the closer we get to the weekend without good news on negotiations, the more escalation risk will be priced-in by the market due to the Saturday deadline on Trump's ultimatum to reopen shipping channels lest they be taken by force
Oil And Yields Move Back Up
Bonds yields stayed lower than oil prices suggested yesterday afternoon. The same is true this morning, but oil prices have risen enough to lead bonds into weaker territory. Said differently, Iran war de-escalation sentiment is increasingly drying up, thus causing higher oil prices, higher bond yields, and lower stock prices. Additionally, the closer we get to the weekend without good news on negotiations, the more escalation risk will be priced-in by the market due to the Saturday deadline on Trump's ultimatum to reopen shipping channels lest they be taken by force
25th March, 26
Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why?
Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why? Wednesday offered a welcome break from the pervasive volatility seen since the start of the Iran war. It was among the narrowest trading ranges of any single day in March, especially during domestic trading hours. This is somewhat surprising considering the preponderance of contradictory newswires and headlines concerning the state of the Iran war (i.e. ceasefire vs more strikes and negotiations vs no communication). If Iran is refuting U.S. claims regarding de-escalation, why would bonds be calmly in stronger territory? Simply put: U.S. claims regarding de-
Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why?
Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why? Wednesday offered a welcome break from the pervasive volatility seen since the start of the Iran war. It was among the narrowest trading ranges of any single day in March, especially during domestic trading hours. This is somewhat surprising considering the preponderance of contradictory newswires and headlines concerning the state of the Iran war (i.e. ceasefire vs more strikes and negotiations vs no communication). If Iran is refuting U.S. claims regarding de-escalation, why would bonds be calmly in stronger territory? Simply put: U.S. claims regarding de-
25th March, 26
Rates Ease Despite Conflicting Iran War Headlines
The past 24 hours have seen multiple news stories with seemingly contradictory updates regarding the state of the Iran war. There's a ceasefire. There's no ceasefire. There's negotiation. There's no negotiation, etc. As far as the rate market is concerned, the most important development has been the general appearance of a shift toward diplomacy and resolution on the U.S. side. This has been enough for oil prices to preserve a majority of the drop seen at the start of the week. Bond yields (which correlate with mortgage rates) have been doing even better than oil prices today. The net
Rates Ease Despite Conflicting Iran War Headlines
The past 24 hours have seen multiple news stories with seemingly contradictory updates regarding the state of the Iran war. There's a ceasefire. There's no ceasefire. There's negotiation. There's no negotiation, etc. As far as the rate market is concerned, the most important development has been the general appearance of a shift toward diplomacy and resolution on the U.S. side. This has been enough for oil prices to preserve a majority of the drop seen at the start of the week. Bond yields (which correlate with mortgage rates) have been doing even better than oil prices today. The net
25th March, 26
Non-QM, Data Source, MI Checklist, Pipeline Valuation Class Tools; Farewell PHH Name
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders A restaurant can seem like the picture of efficiency…until the kitchen falls behind. Guests are seated, orders are taken, and everything appears to move seamlessly. But when what happens up front is not fully connected to what is happening behind the scenes, delays build quickly, and the experience starts to suffer. Home equity lending is no different. Demand may be strong, but when workflows, systems and fulfillment processes are not aligned, speed slips and opportunities stall. On March 31 at 2 PM ET, join FirstClose for a webinar on
Non-QM, Data Source, MI Checklist, Pipeline Valuation Class Tools; Farewell PHH Name
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders A restaurant can seem like the picture of efficiency…until the kitchen falls behind. Guests are seated, orders are taken, and everything appears to move seamlessly. But when what happens up front is not fully connected to what is happening behind the scenes, delays build quickly, and the experience starts to suffer. Home equity lending is no different. Demand may be strong, but when workflows, systems and fulfillment processes are not aligned, speed slips and opportunities stall. On March 31 at 2 PM ET, join FirstClose for a webinar on
25th March, 26
Bonds Showing Some Optimism About Turning Point in The War
There have been various comments from U.S. officials about ending the war for several weeks (i.e. on March 9th, Trump said the war could be over soon). Yesterday's developments (Trump comments on the war being "won" and the 30-day ceasefire news from Israel) are being taken more seriously by markets or at least seriously enough to get trading levels back to where they were after Monday morning's ceasefire/talks news. Oddly enough, oil prices and bond yields are holding onto the gains despite Iran refuting negotiation claims and launching another wave of air strikes
Bonds Showing Some Optimism About Turning Point in The War
There have been various comments from U.S. officials about ending the war for several weeks (i.e. on March 9th, Trump said the war could be over soon). Yesterday's developments (Trump comments on the war being "won" and the 30-day ceasefire news from Israel) are being taken more seriously by markets or at least seriously enough to get trading levels back to where they were after Monday morning's ceasefire/talks news. Oddly enough, oil prices and bond yields are holding onto the gains despite Iran refuting negotiation claims and launching another wave of air strikes
24th March, 26
Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile
Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile Tuesday was notable for financial markets' attempts to trade the Iran war due to the conspicuous juxtaposition of newswires that spoke to opposing developments. Around 1pm ET, troop deployment news sent yields to the highs of the day. A little over an hour later, the newswires gave the impression that the war was almost over--so much so that bonds were willing to retrace most of the 1pm losses. Nonetheless, yields were already elevated by 1pm, which means it was a weaker trading session overall. Material developments in the
Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile
Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile Tuesday was notable for financial markets' attempts to trade the Iran war due to the conspicuous juxtaposition of newswires that spoke to opposing developments. Around 1pm ET, troop deployment news sent yields to the highs of the day. A little over an hour later, the newswires gave the impression that the war was almost over--so much so that bonds were willing to retrace most of the 1pm losses. Nonetheless, yields were already elevated by 1pm, which means it was a weaker trading session overall. Material developments in the