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10th July, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week Roughly Unchanged
Rates are based on bonds and bonds have been taking cues from oil prices this week. Oil was flat overnight, bringing bonds along for the sideways ride. As such, the average mortgage lender began the day almost perfectly in line with yesterday's latest levels. All that having been said, bonds experienced some of their own weakness in the afternoon, independent from oil prices (which continued sideways to slightly lower). Some mortgage lenders may choose to raise rates a bit before the end of businesses. Those who don't will instead have to adjust for this market movement on Monday
Mortgage Rates End Week Roughly Unchanged
Rates are based on bonds and bonds have been taking cues from oil prices this week. Oil was flat overnight, bringing bonds along for the sideways ride. As such, the average mortgage lender began the day almost perfectly in line with yesterday's latest levels. All that having been said, bonds experienced some of their own weakness in the afternoon, independent from oil prices (which continued sideways to slightly lower). Some mortgage lenders may choose to raise rates a bit before the end of businesses. Those who don't will instead have to adjust for this market movement on Monday
10th July, 26
Existing-Home Sales Continue Sideways Trend in June
Existing-home sales eased in June after reaching a six-month high in May, as modest changes in mortgage rates continued to influence buyer activity. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, sales fell 2.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million , though they remained 2.8% above their level from a year earlier. “The back-and-forth in monthly home sales activity, driven by mild fluctuations in mortgage rates, shows how sensitive home buyers are to affordability conditions,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He added that continued job growth should
Existing-Home Sales Continue Sideways Trend in June
Existing-home sales eased in June after reaching a six-month high in May, as modest changes in mortgage rates continued to influence buyer activity. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, sales fell 2.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million , though they remained 2.8% above their level from a year earlier. “The back-and-forth in monthly home sales activity, driven by mild fluctuations in mortgage rates, shows how sensitive home buyers are to affordability conditions,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He added that continued job growth should
10th July, 26
Mortgage Applications Ease During Holiday-Shortened Week
Mortgage application activity slipped modestly last week as both purchase and refinance demand eased during the holiday-shortened period. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.2% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 3, with results adjusted for the Fourth of July holiday. Purchase applications declined 1% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis but remained 5% higher than the same week one year ago, still stronger year-over-year despite elevated borrowing costs. Refinance activity weakened further, with the
Mortgage Applications Ease During Holiday-Shortened Week
Mortgage application activity slipped modestly last week as both purchase and refinance demand eased during the holiday-shortened period. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.2% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 3, with results adjusted for the Fourth of July holiday. Purchase applications declined 1% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis but remained 5% higher than the same week one year ago, still stronger year-over-year despite elevated borrowing costs. Refinance activity weakened further, with the
10th July, 26
Verification, AI, Prequal Products; STRATMOR Tech Survey; Government Program News
Did you know that 53 percent of statistics are made up on the spot? “Rob, you recently mentioned that 30 percent of repeat buyers paid cash and did not finance their home. Where did that statistic come from?” The most recent Home Buyers and Sellers Report from NAR. If you’d like to see stats based on age, here is as much data as you would like. Lenders and vendors love data, and according to Curinos proprietary application index, June 2026 funded mortgage volume increased 6 percent Y-o-Y and increased 8 percent M-o-M. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in June 2026 was 6.
Verification, AI, Prequal Products; STRATMOR Tech Survey; Government Program News
Did you know that 53 percent of statistics are made up on the spot? “Rob, you recently mentioned that 30 percent of repeat buyers paid cash and did not finance their home. Where did that statistic come from?” The most recent Home Buyers and Sellers Report from NAR. If you’d like to see stats based on age, here is as much data as you would like. Lenders and vendors love data, and according to Curinos proprietary application index, June 2026 funded mortgage volume increased 6 percent Y-o-Y and increased 8 percent M-o-M. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in June 2026 was 6.
10th July, 26
Empty Calendar Leaves Focus on War Headlines
The entire week has been a study in the rekindled love affair between bond yields and oil prices. The latter is fairly flat versus yesterday's latest levels, so it's no surprise to see bonds in the same position. Without anything of note on the econ calendar today, there's no reason to expect any catalyst to have more potential impact than war-related headlines and oil prices. That said, we've certainly seen bonds hesitate to follow oil prices lower at times. There's a faint whiff of that dislocation in early trading
Empty Calendar Leaves Focus on War Headlines
The entire week has been a study in the rekindled love affair between bond yields and oil prices. The latter is fairly flat versus yesterday's latest levels, so it's no surprise to see bonds in the same position. Without anything of note on the econ calendar today, there's no reason to expect any catalyst to have more potential impact than war-related headlines and oil prices. That said, we've certainly seen bonds hesitate to follow oil prices lower at times. There's a faint whiff of that dislocation in early trading
9th July, 26
Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch
Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch Bonds had a decent day with MBS up more than a quarter point and 10yr yields down 3bps to 4.54+. While that adds some emphasis to the rejection of a technical breakout above 4.59%, we can't really conclude that it happened for any bond-specific reasons. In fact, we're forced to conclude that bonds are on auto-pilot for the most part and that oil prices are the key input for now. As was the case in June, we know this correlation isn't permanent, but it's been highly reliable during this resurgence of U.S./Iran tensions. Econ Data / Events Jobless
Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch
Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch Bonds had a decent day with MBS up more than a quarter point and 10yr yields down 3bps to 4.54+. While that adds some emphasis to the rejection of a technical breakout above 4.59%, we can't really conclude that it happened for any bond-specific reasons. In fact, we're forced to conclude that bonds are on auto-pilot for the most part and that oil prices are the key input for now. As was the case in June, we know this correlation isn't permanent, but it's been highly reliable during this resurgence of U.S./Iran tensions. Econ Data / Events Jobless
9th July, 26
Rates Recover Modestly
Mortgage rates were rapidly approaching 10-month highs as of yesterday afternoon. They managed a friendly bounce today, but it was fairly small with the average lender dropping 0.03% to 6.5% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario. One reason for caution is that the rate improvement looks to be dependent on oil price volatility after this week's resurgence in U.S./Iran tensions. Oil finally moved lower today. In general, lower oil prices imply lower inflation pressure, and lower rates. This isn't always the case, but there are times (like this week and many of the weeks since the start of the Iran
Rates Recover Modestly
Mortgage rates were rapidly approaching 10-month highs as of yesterday afternoon. They managed a friendly bounce today, but it was fairly small with the average lender dropping 0.03% to 6.5% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario. One reason for caution is that the rate improvement looks to be dependent on oil price volatility after this week's resurgence in U.S./Iran tensions. Oil finally moved lower today. In general, lower oil prices imply lower inflation pressure, and lower rates. This isn't always the case, but there are times (like this week and many of the weeks since the start of the Iran
9th July, 26
Hedging, Warehouse, Processing Tools; M&A Results; Declining Demand for Housing
This morning, we head to Los Angeles, the site of the fires in the Pacific Palisades area in January 2025. Governor Gavin Newsom recently announced that FEMA approved California’s request to extend critical disaster assistance for Los Angeles fire survivors. More than 18,000 structures were destroyed. Seventy percent of those families don’t have a place to live yet. On the flip side, a white paper from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) argues any shortages could invert within the next decade and that the reversal carries direct consequences for mortgage brokers and loan officers: "
Hedging, Warehouse, Processing Tools; M&A Results; Declining Demand for Housing
This morning, we head to Los Angeles, the site of the fires in the Pacific Palisades area in January 2025. Governor Gavin Newsom recently announced that FEMA approved California’s request to extend critical disaster assistance for Los Angeles fire survivors. More than 18,000 structures were destroyed. Seventy percent of those families don’t have a place to live yet. On the flip side, a white paper from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) argues any shortages could invert within the next decade and that the reversal carries direct consequences for mortgage brokers and loan officers: "
9th July, 26
Oil and Yields Starting Out Slightly Lower
Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is so small that it doesn't deserve any explanation (i.e. we're close enough to unchanged to say "nothing new is happening"). But given the recent resurgence of correlation between bonds and oil prices, that's probably today's warm bowl of porridge considering the almost 100% directional alignment overnight. Finally, the most speculative and least defensible view is that bonds are finding technical support at the 4.59 which made our "key levels"
Oil and Yields Starting Out Slightly Lower
Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is so small that it doesn't deserve any explanation (i.e. we're close enough to unchanged to say "nothing new is happening"). But given the recent resurgence of correlation between bonds and oil prices, that's probably today's warm bowl of porridge considering the almost 100% directional alignment overnight. Finally, the most speculative and least defensible view is that bonds are finding technical support at the 4.59 which made our "key levels"
8th July, 26
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce Bonds officially closed at the highest yields in more than a month. At one point just before the noon hour, the 10yr was just over 4.59, but ultimately moved back to 4.56. That's only about 1bp higher than yesterday's latest levels (which feels like a win compared to the mid-day trend). Oil prices and bond yields remain in a tight correlation, and once again, war-related headlines set the tone. The most notable among them was a Trump comment regarding the ceasefire being cancelled/over. As was frequently the case in the run-up
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce Bonds officially closed at the highest yields in more than a month. At one point just before the noon hour, the 10yr was just over 4.59, but ultimately moved back to 4.56. That's only about 1bp higher than yesterday's latest levels (which feels like a win compared to the mid-day trend). Oil prices and bond yields remain in a tight correlation, and once again, war-related headlines set the tone. The most notable among them was a Trump comment regarding the ceasefire being cancelled/over. As was frequently the case in the run-up