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14th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Stage Moderate Recovery From Long-Term Highs
Our daily 30yr fixed rate index hit 6.75% yesterday. This matched the high from May 19th and is the highest level since late July 29, 2025. The key contributor to the recent spike has been the uptick in fuel prices in July combined with the fact that rates never made it any lower than 6.52% over the past 2 months. In other words, we were already in a high range and the uptick in fuel prices simply gave rates a push. Heading into today, we knew there was potential volatility associated with 2 events: Fed Chair Warsh's congressional testimony and the monthly release of the Consumer Price Index (
Mortgage Rates Stage Moderate Recovery From Long-Term Highs
Our daily 30yr fixed rate index hit 6.75% yesterday. This matched the high from May 19th and is the highest level since late July 29, 2025. The key contributor to the recent spike has been the uptick in fuel prices in July combined with the fact that rates never made it any lower than 6.52% over the past 2 months. In other words, we were already in a high range and the uptick in fuel prices simply gave rates a push. Heading into today, we knew there was potential volatility associated with 2 events: Fed Chair Warsh's congressional testimony and the monthly release of the Consumer Price Index (
14th July, 26
CRA, Call Report, Non-QM U/W Tools; ROAD to Housing Bill Viewed; Immigration and Credit Reminder
Ever heard someone say something that was blatantly misleading? On July 16, at 2PM ET, you can race to buy one of Olive Garden’s 10,000 “Never Ending Pasta Passes.” But it does end, after 13 weeks. Yup, for $100 you can economically gain a lot of weight, since it’s in our DNA to do so. Speaking of DNA, do you really think that it is in the DNA of retail companies like Guild, American Pacific, Movement, CrossCountry, etc., to stop expanding? Nope, they’ll keep going, and if you want to know the mindset of a lender that doubled its purchase business from last year, listen to the
CRA, Call Report, Non-QM U/W Tools; ROAD to Housing Bill Viewed; Immigration and Credit Reminder
Ever heard someone say something that was blatantly misleading? On July 16, at 2PM ET, you can race to buy one of Olive Garden’s 10,000 “Never Ending Pasta Passes.” But it does end, after 13 weeks. Yup, for $100 you can economically gain a lot of weight, since it’s in our DNA to do so. Speaking of DNA, do you really think that it is in the DNA of retail companies like Guild, American Pacific, Movement, CrossCountry, etc., to stop expanding? Nope, they’ll keep going, and if you want to know the mindset of a lender that doubled its purchase business from last year, listen to the
14th July, 26
Strong Start After Sharply Lower CPI
The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI was more sharply negative than expected at -0.4 vs a -0.1 forecast. Supercore (which excludes housing) was down -0.2 which is the first negative reading in over a year. Core goods also remained in negative territory for a second straight month. Bonds rallied instantly, led by the short end of the curve (more closely tied to Fed rate expectations). But even 10yr yields are down over 5bps and MBS are up more than 3/8ths of a point.
Strong Start After Sharply Lower CPI
The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI was more sharply negative than expected at -0.4 vs a -0.1 forecast. Supercore (which excludes housing) was down -0.2 which is the first negative reading in over a year. Core goods also remained in negative territory for a second straight month. Bonds rallied instantly, led by the short end of the curve (more closely tied to Fed rate expectations). But even 10yr yields are down over 5bps and MBS are up more than 3/8ths of a point.
13th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Near 1-Year Highs
Interest rates are based on bonds. Because the bonds underlying the average mortgage are fixed rate, inflation is the enemy. Imagine you're an investor fronting the money for a fixed-rate mortgage. You know your schedule of payments from day one. Let's say the payment is $5 or enough to buy a dozen eggs. Now let's say inflation raises the price of those eggs to $7. You're still only receiving $5 because you invested in a fixed-rate loan. Because of this dynamic, when inflation fears increase, investors demand higher rates of return. We're dealing with two inflation threats right now
Mortgage Rates Near 1-Year Highs
Interest rates are based on bonds. Because the bonds underlying the average mortgage are fixed rate, inflation is the enemy. Imagine you're an investor fronting the money for a fixed-rate mortgage. You know your schedule of payments from day one. Let's say the payment is $5 or enough to buy a dozen eggs. Now let's say inflation raises the price of those eggs to $7. You're still only receiving $5 because you invested in a fixed-rate loan. Because of this dynamic, when inflation fears increase, investors demand higher rates of return. We're dealing with two inflation threats right now
13th July, 26
Fraud Report, AMC, Non-QM Products, eNote News; ROAD to Housing Thoughts; Oil and Rates
Recently, MISMO released its new white paper, “From Paper to Performance: How eNotes and eClosing Streamline Liquidity,” providing guidance for originators, warehouse lenders, investors, and technology providers to implement digital mortgage solutions. Today at 10AM PT is Now Next Later, presented by Relcu, where Jeremy Potter and Eric Lapin are joined by Laura Kornhauser, CEO of Stratyfy, to discuss the evolving role of AI in mortgage and financial services. The conversation explores how lenders can use AI to improve risk assessment, strengthen decision making, and balance innovation with
Fraud Report, AMC, Non-QM Products, eNote News; ROAD to Housing Thoughts; Oil and Rates
Recently, MISMO released its new white paper, “From Paper to Performance: How eNotes and eClosing Streamline Liquidity,” providing guidance for originators, warehouse lenders, investors, and technology providers to implement digital mortgage solutions. Today at 10AM PT is Now Next Later, presented by Relcu, where Jeremy Potter and Eric Lapin are joined by Laura Kornhauser, CEO of Stratyfy, to discuss the evolving role of AI in mortgage and financial services. The conversation explores how lenders can use AI to improve risk assessment, strengthen decision making, and balance innovation with
13th July, 26
Weekend Weakness And Another Showdown With a Technical Ceiling
Bonds are weaker to start the new week and the catalyst is simple. The U.S. ramped up air strikes in Iran, both in terms of number and distance inland. Iran responded by hitting various allied targets. Perhaps more importantly for financial markets, shipping traffic has returned back to war-time lows after a noticeable surge in the 2nd half of June. Oil prices launched higher overnight and bond yields followed. Still, the market doesn't view these punches and counterpunches as a sign of perpetual war, but rather a negotiation strategy--at least for now. Were it otherwise, we'd be seeing
Weekend Weakness And Another Showdown With a Technical Ceiling
Bonds are weaker to start the new week and the catalyst is simple. The U.S. ramped up air strikes in Iran, both in terms of number and distance inland. Iran responded by hitting various allied targets. Perhaps more importantly for financial markets, shipping traffic has returned back to war-time lows after a noticeable surge in the 2nd half of June. Oil prices launched higher overnight and bond yields followed. Still, the market doesn't view these punches and counterpunches as a sign of perpetual war, but rather a negotiation strategy--at least for now. Were it otherwise, we'd be seeing
10th July, 26
Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon
Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon Oil and Treasury yields were almost perfectly correlated for almost the entire week. Friday afternoon was an exception. Oil continued sideways to slightly lower while yields rose a bit. Overall damage was negligible, but it was interesting nonetheless. While there was no clear news or event behind the move, we can plainly see that it originated in the shortest end of the curve and/or Fed rate expectations. Friday afternoon illiquidity likely made the move bigger than it otherwise would have been. As for potential reasons, it could be as simple as
Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon
Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon Oil and Treasury yields were almost perfectly correlated for almost the entire week. Friday afternoon was an exception. Oil continued sideways to slightly lower while yields rose a bit. Overall damage was negligible, but it was interesting nonetheless. While there was no clear news or event behind the move, we can plainly see that it originated in the shortest end of the curve and/or Fed rate expectations. Friday afternoon illiquidity likely made the move bigger than it otherwise would have been. As for potential reasons, it could be as simple as
10th July, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week Roughly Unchanged
Rates are based on bonds and bonds have been taking cues from oil prices this week. Oil was flat overnight, bringing bonds along for the sideways ride. As such, the average mortgage lender began the day almost perfectly in line with yesterday's latest levels. All that having been said, bonds experienced some of their own weakness in the afternoon, independent from oil prices (which continued sideways to slightly lower). Some mortgage lenders may choose to raise rates a bit before the end of businesses. Those who don't will instead have to adjust for this market movement on Monday
Mortgage Rates End Week Roughly Unchanged
Rates are based on bonds and bonds have been taking cues from oil prices this week. Oil was flat overnight, bringing bonds along for the sideways ride. As such, the average mortgage lender began the day almost perfectly in line with yesterday's latest levels. All that having been said, bonds experienced some of their own weakness in the afternoon, independent from oil prices (which continued sideways to slightly lower). Some mortgage lenders may choose to raise rates a bit before the end of businesses. Those who don't will instead have to adjust for this market movement on Monday
10th July, 26
Existing-Home Sales Continue Sideways Trend in June
Existing-home sales eased in June after reaching a six-month high in May, as modest changes in mortgage rates continued to influence buyer activity. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, sales fell 2.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million , though they remained 2.8% above their level from a year earlier. “The back-and-forth in monthly home sales activity, driven by mild fluctuations in mortgage rates, shows how sensitive home buyers are to affordability conditions,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He added that continued job growth should
Existing-Home Sales Continue Sideways Trend in June
Existing-home sales eased in June after reaching a six-month high in May, as modest changes in mortgage rates continued to influence buyer activity. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, sales fell 2.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million , though they remained 2.8% above their level from a year earlier. “The back-and-forth in monthly home sales activity, driven by mild fluctuations in mortgage rates, shows how sensitive home buyers are to affordability conditions,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He added that continued job growth should
10th July, 26
Mortgage Applications Ease During Holiday-Shortened Week
Mortgage application activity slipped modestly last week as both purchase and refinance demand eased during the holiday-shortened period. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.2% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 3, with results adjusted for the Fourth of July holiday. Purchase applications declined 1% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis but remained 5% higher than the same week one year ago, still stronger year-over-year despite elevated borrowing costs. Refinance activity weakened further, with the
Mortgage Applications Ease During Holiday-Shortened Week
Mortgage application activity slipped modestly last week as both purchase and refinance demand eased during the holiday-shortened period. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.2% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 3, with results adjusted for the Fourth of July holiday. Purchase applications declined 1% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis but remained 5% higher than the same week one year ago, still stronger year-over-year despite elevated borrowing costs. Refinance activity weakened further, with the