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10th July, 26
Verification, AI, Prequal Products; STRATMOR Tech Survey; Government Program News
Did you know that 53 percent of statistics are made up on the spot? “Rob, you recently mentioned that 30 percent of repeat buyers paid cash and did not finance their home. Where did that statistic come from?” The most recent Home Buyers and Sellers Report from NAR. If you’d like to see stats based on age, here is as much data as you would like. Lenders and vendors love data, and according to Curinos proprietary application index, June 2026 funded mortgage volume increased 6 percent Y-o-Y and increased 8 percent M-o-M. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in June 2026 was 6.
Verification, AI, Prequal Products; STRATMOR Tech Survey; Government Program News
Did you know that 53 percent of statistics are made up on the spot? “Rob, you recently mentioned that 30 percent of repeat buyers paid cash and did not finance their home. Where did that statistic come from?” The most recent Home Buyers and Sellers Report from NAR. If you’d like to see stats based on age, here is as much data as you would like. Lenders and vendors love data, and according to Curinos proprietary application index, June 2026 funded mortgage volume increased 6 percent Y-o-Y and increased 8 percent M-o-M. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in June 2026 was 6.
10th July, 26
Empty Calendar Leaves Focus on War Headlines
The entire week has been a study in the rekindled love affair between bond yields and oil prices. The latter is fairly flat versus yesterday's latest levels, so it's no surprise to see bonds in the same position. Without anything of note on the econ calendar today, there's no reason to expect any catalyst to have more potential impact than war-related headlines and oil prices. That said, we've certainly seen bonds hesitate to follow oil prices lower at times. There's a faint whiff of that dislocation in early trading
Empty Calendar Leaves Focus on War Headlines
The entire week has been a study in the rekindled love affair between bond yields and oil prices. The latter is fairly flat versus yesterday's latest levels, so it's no surprise to see bonds in the same position. Without anything of note on the econ calendar today, there's no reason to expect any catalyst to have more potential impact than war-related headlines and oil prices. That said, we've certainly seen bonds hesitate to follow oil prices lower at times. There's a faint whiff of that dislocation in early trading
9th July, 26
Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch
Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch Bonds had a decent day with MBS up more than a quarter point and 10yr yields down 3bps to 4.54+. While that adds some emphasis to the rejection of a technical breakout above 4.59%, we can't really conclude that it happened for any bond-specific reasons. In fact, we're forced to conclude that bonds are on auto-pilot for the most part and that oil prices are the key input for now. As was the case in June, we know this correlation isn't permanent, but it's been highly reliable during this resurgence of U.S./Iran tensions. Econ Data / Events Jobless
Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch
Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch Bonds had a decent day with MBS up more than a quarter point and 10yr yields down 3bps to 4.54+. While that adds some emphasis to the rejection of a technical breakout above 4.59%, we can't really conclude that it happened for any bond-specific reasons. In fact, we're forced to conclude that bonds are on auto-pilot for the most part and that oil prices are the key input for now. As was the case in June, we know this correlation isn't permanent, but it's been highly reliable during this resurgence of U.S./Iran tensions. Econ Data / Events Jobless
9th July, 26
Rates Recover Modestly
Mortgage rates were rapidly approaching 10-month highs as of yesterday afternoon. They managed a friendly bounce today, but it was fairly small with the average lender dropping 0.03% to 6.5% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario. One reason for caution is that the rate improvement looks to be dependent on oil price volatility after this week's resurgence in U.S./Iran tensions. Oil finally moved lower today. In general, lower oil prices imply lower inflation pressure, and lower rates. This isn't always the case, but there are times (like this week and many of the weeks since the start of the Iran
Rates Recover Modestly
Mortgage rates were rapidly approaching 10-month highs as of yesterday afternoon. They managed a friendly bounce today, but it was fairly small with the average lender dropping 0.03% to 6.5% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario. One reason for caution is that the rate improvement looks to be dependent on oil price volatility after this week's resurgence in U.S./Iran tensions. Oil finally moved lower today. In general, lower oil prices imply lower inflation pressure, and lower rates. This isn't always the case, but there are times (like this week and many of the weeks since the start of the Iran
9th July, 26
Hedging, Warehouse, Processing Tools; M&A Results; Declining Demand for Housing
This morning, we head to Los Angeles, the site of the fires in the Pacific Palisades area in January 2025. Governor Gavin Newsom recently announced that FEMA approved California’s request to extend critical disaster assistance for Los Angeles fire survivors. More than 18,000 structures were destroyed. Seventy percent of those families don’t have a place to live yet. On the flip side, a white paper from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) argues any shortages could invert within the next decade and that the reversal carries direct consequences for mortgage brokers and loan officers: "
Hedging, Warehouse, Processing Tools; M&A Results; Declining Demand for Housing
This morning, we head to Los Angeles, the site of the fires in the Pacific Palisades area in January 2025. Governor Gavin Newsom recently announced that FEMA approved California’s request to extend critical disaster assistance for Los Angeles fire survivors. More than 18,000 structures were destroyed. Seventy percent of those families don’t have a place to live yet. On the flip side, a white paper from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) argues any shortages could invert within the next decade and that the reversal carries direct consequences for mortgage brokers and loan officers: "
9th July, 26
Oil and Yields Starting Out Slightly Lower
Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is so small that it doesn't deserve any explanation (i.e. we're close enough to unchanged to say "nothing new is happening"). But given the recent resurgence of correlation between bonds and oil prices, that's probably today's warm bowl of porridge considering the almost 100% directional alignment overnight. Finally, the most speculative and least defensible view is that bonds are finding technical support at the 4.59 which made our "key levels"
Oil and Yields Starting Out Slightly Lower
Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is so small that it doesn't deserve any explanation (i.e. we're close enough to unchanged to say "nothing new is happening"). But given the recent resurgence of correlation between bonds and oil prices, that's probably today's warm bowl of porridge considering the almost 100% directional alignment overnight. Finally, the most speculative and least defensible view is that bonds are finding technical support at the 4.59 which made our "key levels"
8th July, 26
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce Bonds officially closed at the highest yields in more than a month. At one point just before the noon hour, the 10yr was just over 4.59, but ultimately moved back to 4.56. That's only about 1bp higher than yesterday's latest levels (which feels like a win compared to the mid-day trend). Oil prices and bond yields remain in a tight correlation, and once again, war-related headlines set the tone. The most notable among them was a Trump comment regarding the ceasefire being cancelled/over. As was frequently the case in the run-up
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce Bonds officially closed at the highest yields in more than a month. At one point just before the noon hour, the 10yr was just over 4.59, but ultimately moved back to 4.56. That's only about 1bp higher than yesterday's latest levels (which feels like a win compared to the mid-day trend). Oil prices and bond yields remain in a tight correlation, and once again, war-related headlines set the tone. The most notable among them was a Trump comment regarding the ceasefire being cancelled/over. As was frequently the case in the run-up
8th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Back Up Near 10-Month Highs
Mortgage rates have moved higher at a moderate pace over the past 2 days as tensions between The U.S. and Iran see a resurgence. As far as the underlying bond market is concerned, most of the damage was done yesterday. But today's news added emphasis when Trump declared the ceasefire to be over. Rates are based on bonds, but mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day and only change them if bonds make a big enough intraday move. That meant the average lender had to play some catch-up with bond market movement this morning. All that to say that bonds didn't have nearly as
Mortgage Rates Back Up Near 10-Month Highs
Mortgage rates have moved higher at a moderate pace over the past 2 days as tensions between The U.S. and Iran see a resurgence. As far as the underlying bond market is concerned, most of the damage was done yesterday. But today's news added emphasis when Trump declared the ceasefire to be over. Rates are based on bonds, but mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day and only change them if bonds make a big enough intraday move. That meant the average lender had to play some catch-up with bond market movement this morning. All that to say that bonds didn't have nearly as
8th July, 26
AI, AMC, Analytic, Equity, Correspondent Products; Lennar's Lawsuit; Oil Hits Rates (Again)
STRATMOR Group has opened participation for its 2026 Compensation Connection® Study, providing mortgage-specific insights into compensation components, incentive plan structures, compensation percentiles, and more. (Compensation Connection focuses exclusively on mortgage banking, with benchmark comparisons by lender type, size, region, and national averages, plus three-year trending for many metrics. This year's study includes four modules: Retail Sales, Consumer Direct Sales, Fulfillment, and Executive Management. Return your submissions to compconnection@stratmorgroup.com by August 15.)
AI, AMC, Analytic, Equity, Correspondent Products; Lennar's Lawsuit; Oil Hits Rates (Again)
STRATMOR Group has opened participation for its 2026 Compensation Connection® Study, providing mortgage-specific insights into compensation components, incentive plan structures, compensation percentiles, and more. (Compensation Connection focuses exclusively on mortgage banking, with benchmark comparisons by lender type, size, region, and national averages, plus three-year trending for many metrics. This year's study includes four modules: Retail Sales, Consumer Direct Sales, Fulfillment, and Executive Management. Return your submissions to compconnection@stratmorgroup.com by August 15.)
8th July, 26
Only Modestly Weaker After Trump Says Ceasefire is Over
Iran-related headlines have jumped back to the realm of relevance this week and Wednesday morning's overnight session kicked things up another notch. Trump declared the ceasefire to be over and is currently saying peace deal negotiations may not even continue. Markets definitely reacted with oil and Treasury yields spiking overnight. The interesting part is the magnitude of the spike. It was roughly 4bps in terms of 10yr yields and almost half those losses were recovered over the following 2 hours. Oil prices rose roughly $3 and have dropped almost $2 since the initial spike. Bottom line:
Only Modestly Weaker After Trump Says Ceasefire is Over
Iran-related headlines have jumped back to the realm of relevance this week and Wednesday morning's overnight session kicked things up another notch. Trump declared the ceasefire to be over and is currently saying peace deal negotiations may not even continue. Markets definitely reacted with oil and Treasury yields spiking overnight. The interesting part is the magnitude of the spike. It was roughly 4bps in terms of 10yr yields and almost half those losses were recovered over the following 2 hours. Oil prices rose roughly $3 and have dropped almost $2 since the initial spike. Bottom line: