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15th May, 26
April Housing Inflation Data Fills in The Dots That Went Missing During The Government Shutdown
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a highly technical research paper this week examining how the agency handled missing shelter inflation data during the October 2025 government funding lapse. The issue stemmed from the CPI’s housing survey, which was unable to collect rent data during the shutdown period. With no fresh survey results available, BLS relied on a “carry-forward” methodology that essentially treated rents as unchanged for the affected sample. That decision temporarily froze the CPI’s rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) indexes in October 2025, likely making
April Housing Inflation Data Fills in The Dots That Went Missing During The Government Shutdown
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a highly technical research paper this week examining how the agency handled missing shelter inflation data during the October 2025 government funding lapse. The issue stemmed from the CPI’s housing survey, which was unable to collect rent data during the shutdown period. With no fresh survey results available, BLS relied on a “carry-forward” methodology that essentially treated rents as unchanged for the affected sample. That decision temporarily froze the CPI’s rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) indexes in October 2025, likely making
15th May, 26
Servicer Retention Fell in Q1, But Remains at Multi-Year Highs
Refinance activity continued to recover in the first quarter of 2026, but mortgage servicers retained a smaller share of borrowers despite the stronger lending environment, according to the latest ICE Mortgage Monitor. ICE estimated that roughly 585,000 first-lien refinances totaling $242 billion closed during the quarter, up from a revised 550,000 loans and $234 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. Refinance volume more than doubled compared with the same period last year and reached its highest quarterly level since early 2022. Refinances accounted for nearly 44% of all mortgage
Servicer Retention Fell in Q1, But Remains at Multi-Year Highs
Refinance activity continued to recover in the first quarter of 2026, but mortgage servicers retained a smaller share of borrowers despite the stronger lending environment, according to the latest ICE Mortgage Monitor. ICE estimated that roughly 585,000 first-lien refinances totaling $242 billion closed during the quarter, up from a revised 550,000 loans and $234 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. Refinance volume more than doubled compared with the same period last year and reached its highest quarterly level since early 2022. Refinances accounted for nearly 44% of all mortgage
15th May, 26
Existing-Home Sales Flat Year Over Year Despite Inventory Gains
Existing-home sales edged slightly higher in April, stabilizing after March’s decline as improving affordability and increased inventory provided modest support for buyers. Sales increased 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million , matching the pace seen one year ago. “Despite mixed macroeconomic signals—including a record-high stock market and historically low consumer confidence—home sales were modestly boosted by the continued improvement in housing affordability,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He also noted that mortgage rates remain lower than a year
Existing-Home Sales Flat Year Over Year Despite Inventory Gains
Existing-home sales edged slightly higher in April, stabilizing after March’s decline as improving affordability and increased inventory provided modest support for buyers. Sales increased 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million , matching the pace seen one year ago. “Despite mixed macroeconomic signals—including a record-high stock market and historically low consumer confidence—home sales were modestly boosted by the continued improvement in housing affordability,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He also noted that mortgage rates remain lower than a year
15th May, 26
Purchase Activity Lifts Mortgage Applications Despite Higher Rates
Mortgage applications increased modestly last week, as stronger purchase activity more than offset a slight decline in refinances. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.7% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 8. The gain was driven entirely by home purchase demand, which continued to show resilience despite mortgage rates remaining near recent highs. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4% from the prior week and was 7% higher than the same week one year ago. Refinance activity, meanwhile, edged lower. The
Purchase Activity Lifts Mortgage Applications Despite Higher Rates
Mortgage applications increased modestly last week, as stronger purchase activity more than offset a slight decline in refinances. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.7% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 8. The gain was driven entirely by home purchase demand, which continued to show resilience despite mortgage rates remaining near recent highs. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4% from the prior week and was 7% higher than the same week one year ago. Refinance activity, meanwhile, edged lower. The
15th May, 26
Mortgage Rates Surge Toward 8-Month Highs
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As soon as Trump got back on the plane to head home, bonds began tanking (i.e. jumping to higher yields). When bond yields spike, mortgage rates follow, and today is no exception. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 6.62% this morning, right in line with levels seen on March 26th and 27th and the highest since August 1st. If there's a silver lining, it's that mortgage rates aren't higher. Much of the credit goes to the ramp in purchases
Mortgage Rates Surge Toward 8-Month Highs
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As soon as Trump got back on the plane to head home, bonds began tanking (i.e. jumping to higher yields). When bond yields spike, mortgage rates follow, and today is no exception. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 6.62% this morning, right in line with levels seen on March 26th and 27th and the highest since August 1st. If there's a silver lining, it's that mortgage rates aren't higher. Much of the credit goes to the ramp in purchases
15th May, 26
HELOC, DPA, U/W Fees Waived Products; Delinquencies Edge Higher; Conv. Conforming Changes
As the legal and proxy battles are waged among Two Harbors, UWM, and CrossCountry, today I head to New York for the MBA's Secondary & Capital Markets Conference. John Wooden said, “Failing to prepare is preparing to fail” and across the land, over a thousand people are avoiding failure by preparing, lining up sessions, meetings, and hallway chats, along with social events. Participants had better prepare for sticker shock: $30 cocktails. Several topics are dealing with the regulatory environment, and I received this note. “Rob, whatever happened to the confusion and lawsuits about
HELOC, DPA, U/W Fees Waived Products; Delinquencies Edge Higher; Conv. Conforming Changes
As the legal and proxy battles are waged among Two Harbors, UWM, and CrossCountry, today I head to New York for the MBA's Secondary & Capital Markets Conference. John Wooden said, “Failing to prepare is preparing to fail” and across the land, over a thousand people are avoiding failure by preparing, lining up sessions, meetings, and hallway chats, along with social events. Participants had better prepare for sticker shock: $30 cocktails. Several topics are dealing with the regulatory environment, and I received this note. “Rob, whatever happened to the confusion and lawsuits about
15th May, 26
Highest Yields in a Year After Trump/Xi Summit
Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit over the past 2 days. But talks wrapped up in the overnight session with little to show for it. There was actually very little notable discussion about the war. Both parties want it to end, but China does not appear to be on the verge of taking action in that regard. Bonds began selling early in the overnight session and continued in the same direction into domestic hours. 10yr yields are the highest since May 2025 and MBS are down over half a
Highest Yields in a Year After Trump/Xi Summit
Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit over the past 2 days. But talks wrapped up in the overnight session with little to show for it. There was actually very little notable discussion about the war. Both parties want it to end, but China does not appear to be on the verge of taking action in that regard. Bonds began selling early in the overnight session and continued in the same direction into domestic hours. 10yr yields are the highest since May 2025 and MBS are down over half a
14th May, 26
Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon
Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon The day began with promise, but devolved into yet another disappointment. After being almost a quarter point higher at 10am, MBS slid to an eighth point loss by the close. 10yr yields were as low as 4.44% early but were as high as 4.48% in the final hour of trading. Just as frustrating as the weakness is the fact that there's no discrete scapegoat in the news or data. That said, oil prices were also moving higher during the bond sell-off. Given the absence of war-related headlines, some traders could be getting antsy due to a lack of
Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon
Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon The day began with promise, but devolved into yet another disappointment. After being almost a quarter point higher at 10am, MBS slid to an eighth point loss by the close. 10yr yields were as low as 4.44% early but were as high as 4.48% in the final hour of trading. Just as frustrating as the weakness is the fact that there's no discrete scapegoat in the news or data. That said, oil prices were also moving higher during the bond sell-off. Given the absence of war-related headlines, some traders could be getting antsy due to a lack of
14th May, 26
Mortgage Rates Move Moderately Lower
May continues to be a more volatile month than the bulk of April when it comes to day over day mortgage rate movement. While the average day has seen that volatility play out in favor of higher rates, today was thankfully the opposite. Yesterday's latest levels left the average lender at 6 week highs with a top tier 30yr fixed rate of 6.57. The underlying bond market was already beginning to recover yesterday afternoon. Combined with additional, modest bond market improvement overnight, today's 30yr fixed rate fell to 6.52% on average. The Iran war remains the primary source of
Mortgage Rates Move Moderately Lower
May continues to be a more volatile month than the bulk of April when it comes to day over day mortgage rate movement. While the average day has seen that volatility play out in favor of higher rates, today was thankfully the opposite. Yesterday's latest levels left the average lender at 6 week highs with a top tier 30yr fixed rate of 6.57. The underlying bond market was already beginning to recover yesterday afternoon. Combined with additional, modest bond market improvement overnight, today's 30yr fixed rate fell to 6.52% on average. The Iran war remains the primary source of
14th May, 26
AI MBS Trading, AI Workflows, Sub-Servicing, eNote, Asset-Based Lending Tools; Colorado Revamps AI Law
How do you go about trying to run your company’s AI efforts without knowing the rules? Testing suggests Google's AI overviews tells millions of lies per hour. Colorado rewrote its landmark AI law: “Unpacking SB 26-189 and what it means for businesses” described by Ballard Spahr. AI, recapture, and capital markets were one of the topics in yesterday’s Capital Markets Wrap. Certainly, companies in our biz are grappling with the AI influence on the manufacturing process, and using it for guideline questions, is something on which many lenders are ruminating. (Today’s podcast can be
AI MBS Trading, AI Workflows, Sub-Servicing, eNote, Asset-Based Lending Tools; Colorado Revamps AI Law
How do you go about trying to run your company’s AI efforts without knowing the rules? Testing suggests Google's AI overviews tells millions of lies per hour. Colorado rewrote its landmark AI law: “Unpacking SB 26-189 and what it means for businesses” described by Ballard Spahr. AI, recapture, and capital markets were one of the topics in yesterday’s Capital Markets Wrap. Certainly, companies in our biz are grappling with the AI influence on the manufacturing process, and using it for guideline questions, is something on which many lenders are ruminating. (Today’s podcast can be