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10th November, 25
Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure
Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure Bonds were weaker in the overnight session with at least some of the blame presumably going to a sudden improvement in the prospects for reopening the government. To whatever extent that blame is merited, the rest of the week is increasingly interesting. Tuesday is fully closed due to the Veterans Day holiday. A House vote on a shutdown resolution could happen as early as Wednesday. Even if the vote is looking more like Thu/Fri, any headlines that clarify the timeline or the details could be tradeable events. Market
Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure
Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure Bonds were weaker in the overnight session with at least some of the blame presumably going to a sudden improvement in the prospects for reopening the government. To whatever extent that blame is merited, the rest of the week is increasingly interesting. Tuesday is fully closed due to the Veterans Day holiday. A House vote on a shutdown resolution could happen as early as Wednesday. Even if the vote is looking more like Thu/Fri, any headlines that clarify the timeline or the details could be tradeable events. Market
10th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Edge Higher But Remain in November Range
Mortgage rates went into the weekend with a small cushion thanks to movement in the bond market on Friday. Specifically, bonds improved after mortgage rates came out for the day. If the improvement had been sharper, mortgage lenders likely would have made a mid-day adjustment to slightly lower levels. The implication was that rates would have been slightly lower this morning if bonds managed to hold the same levels over the weekend. Unfortunately, bonds lost enough ground to overshadow Friday's cushion, just slightly. The net effect is an average top-tier 30yr fixed rate that is 0.02% higher
Mortgage Rates Edge Higher But Remain in November Range
Mortgage rates went into the weekend with a small cushion thanks to movement in the bond market on Friday. Specifically, bonds improved after mortgage rates came out for the day. If the improvement had been sharper, mortgage lenders likely would have made a mid-day adjustment to slightly lower levels. The implication was that rates would have been slightly lower this morning if bonds managed to hold the same levels over the weekend. Unfortunately, bonds lost enough ground to overshadow Friday's cushion, just slightly. The net effect is an average top-tier 30yr fixed rate that is 0.02% higher
10th November, 25
Tax Service, Realtor Marketing, Debt Payment Tools; Curinos on Apps; Events and Training
“6-7!” has swept the nation for youngsters of indeterminant age, and for no real reason. Other numbers have meaning, as do dates. For example, today is November 10th and on this day in 1975, the freighter S.S. Edmund Fitzgerald sank in Lake Superior during a massive storm, killing all 29 of the crew. (Gordon Lightfoot memorialized the tragedy in a hit song the following year.) What’s in a number? Today, let’s look at “50” or “100.” Through some social media software, the president has brought up the 50- or 100-year mortgage as a way of improving affordability. Most people in
Tax Service, Realtor Marketing, Debt Payment Tools; Curinos on Apps; Events and Training
“6-7!” has swept the nation for youngsters of indeterminant age, and for no real reason. Other numbers have meaning, as do dates. For example, today is November 10th and on this day in 1975, the freighter S.S. Edmund Fitzgerald sank in Lake Superior during a massive storm, killing all 29 of the crew. (Gordon Lightfoot memorialized the tragedy in a hit song the following year.) What’s in a number? Today, let’s look at “50” or “100.” Through some social media software, the president has brought up the 50- or 100-year mortgage as a way of improving affordability. Most people in
10th November, 25
Shutdown Resolution in Sight. What Next?
If members of the House can make it back to D.C. in sufficient numbers, there's a real possibility that the shutdown will end this week. Some marketplace chatter is attempting to connect overnight bond market weakness to those prospects, but an early recovery suggests some skepticism (because the recovery didn't coincide with any new news on the shutdown). Still, a logical case could be made for bond weakness when the shutdown ends, assuming a prolonged shutdown increasingly harms the economy. Either way, the real reaction will be reserved for real confirmation. Despite assumptive headlines,
Shutdown Resolution in Sight. What Next?
If members of the House can make it back to D.C. in sufficient numbers, there's a real possibility that the shutdown will end this week. Some marketplace chatter is attempting to connect overnight bond market weakness to those prospects, but an early recovery suggests some skepticism (because the recovery didn't coincide with any new news on the shutdown). Still, a logical case could be made for bond weakness when the shutdown ends, assuming a prolonged shutdown increasingly harms the economy. Either way, the real reaction will be reserved for real confirmation. Despite assumptive headlines,
7th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Rise Gently, But Still Well Below This Week's Highs
Wednesday's mortgage rates were the highest in roughly a month and very close to the highest levels in 2 months. This followed stronger economic data on that same morning. Rates moved back down yesterday after separate econ data told a different story. Now on Friday, it's a mixed bag. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker to start the day, and that meant rates started out modestly higher. But the last economic data of the week showed lower-than-expected consumer sentiment. Bonds improved as a result, but not enough for the average lender to go to the trouble of adjusting their
Mortgage Rates Rise Gently, But Still Well Below This Week's Highs
Wednesday's mortgage rates were the highest in roughly a month and very close to the highest levels in 2 months. This followed stronger economic data on that same morning. Rates moved back down yesterday after separate econ data told a different story. Now on Friday, it's a mixed bag. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker to start the day, and that meant rates started out modestly higher. But the last economic data of the week showed lower-than-expected consumer sentiment. Bonds improved as a result, but not enough for the average lender to go to the trouble of adjusting their
7th November, 25
Non-QM, Lock Service, Valuation M&A, Borrower Satisfaction, ARM Hedging Tools; Robinhood Enters Mortgage
How was the Louve in Paris robbed? The password for the cameras was… ready? Louve. (I’m sure that the Smithsonian, MOMA, and Vatican IT staffs are busy changing theirs. (I have my passwords in a notebook… no one can read my scrawl.) Let’s hope that the Federal Aviation Administration has better security, and its website says, “The FAA manages the world’s safest and most complex aviation system. On an average day, we serve more than 45,000 flights and 2.9 million airline passengers across more than 29 million square miles of airspace.” Even with the Trump Administration lopping 10
Non-QM, Lock Service, Valuation M&A, Borrower Satisfaction, ARM Hedging Tools; Robinhood Enters Mortgage
How was the Louve in Paris robbed? The password for the cameras was… ready? Louve. (I’m sure that the Smithsonian, MOMA, and Vatican IT staffs are busy changing theirs. (I have my passwords in a notebook… no one can read my scrawl.) Let’s hope that the Federal Aviation Administration has better security, and its website says, “The FAA manages the world’s safest and most complex aviation system. On an average day, we serve more than 45,000 flights and 2.9 million airline passengers across more than 29 million square miles of airspace.” Even with the Trump Administration lopping 10
7th November, 25
Econ Data Keeping Bonds Flat
Although bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory, they began losing ground shortly thereafter. Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open as stock losses helped arrest the selling pressure. Then at 10am ET, weaker Consumer Sentiment data (with a record low in current conditions) helped completely erase the selling
Econ Data Keeping Bonds Flat
Although bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory, they began losing ground shortly thereafter. Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open as stock losses helped arrest the selling pressure. Then at 10am ET, weaker Consumer Sentiment data (with a record low in current conditions) helped completely erase the selling
6th November, 25
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing? Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend since Fed day. Viewed through another lens, Fed day caused an isolated lurch toward higher yields and then we were generally sideways until yesterday's econ data caused another lurch higher. The common thread in each scenario is that bonds had been unable to find a reason to rally in any meaningful way. Amid such scenarios, we wait for such rallies to restore balance to the near-term outlook. Via weak results in private label econ data, a sharp morning selling spree in stocks (and
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing? Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend since Fed day. Viewed through another lens, Fed day caused an isolated lurch toward higher yields and then we were generally sideways until yesterday's econ data caused another lurch higher. The common thread in each scenario is that bonds had been unable to find a reason to rally in any meaningful way. Amid such scenarios, we wait for such rallies to restore balance to the near-term outlook. Via weak results in private label econ data, a sharp morning selling spree in stocks (and
6th November, 25
Nice Little Recovery For Mortgage Rates
As of yesterday afternoon, mortgage rates were right in line with the highest levels in more than a month. The upward momentum was largely a product of 2 specific days: the October 29th Fed announcement and yesterday's duo of economic reports that suggested less cause for concern over the labor market and strength of the services sector. Now today, we have different economic data telling a different story. Were it not for the government shutdown, the market may have never placed nearly as much emphasis on today's data. In fact, today is the first time that many market participants have
Nice Little Recovery For Mortgage Rates
As of yesterday afternoon, mortgage rates were right in line with the highest levels in more than a month. The upward momentum was largely a product of 2 specific days: the October 29th Fed announcement and yesterday's duo of economic reports that suggested less cause for concern over the labor market and strength of the services sector. Now today, we have different economic data telling a different story. Were it not for the government shutdown, the market may have never placed nearly as much emphasis on today's data. In fact, today is the first time that many market participants have
6th November, 25
AI Processing, Borrower Experience and Targeting Tools; Labor Market is Being Pummeled
Frequent conference goers or traveling salespeople are obviously concerned about the Trump Administration cutting 10 percent of flights for a variety of reasons. 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration agents are working without pay. For anyone looking for a job through the Job Board, here’s a pro tip for a question in your next interview: “Where do you see yourself in five years?” Answer: “Celebrating the 5th anniversary in your lunchroom of you asking me that question.” Job news, good and bad, is in the forefront of economic and residential
AI Processing, Borrower Experience and Targeting Tools; Labor Market is Being Pummeled
Frequent conference goers or traveling salespeople are obviously concerned about the Trump Administration cutting 10 percent of flights for a variety of reasons. 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration agents are working without pay. For anyone looking for a job through the Job Board, here’s a pro tip for a question in your next interview: “Where do you see yourself in five years?” Answer: “Celebrating the 5th anniversary in your lunchroom of you asking me that question.” Job news, good and bad, is in the forefront of economic and residential