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17th July, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows
The good news is that mortgage rates ended the day at their lowest levels of the week. That's welcome news after Tuesday's rates matched the highest seen since July 2025. Today's improvement came courtesy of weakness in the stock market, which is not necessarily a common or reliable source of inspiration for rates these days. But a majority of this week's drop is tied to back-to-back inflation reports coming in much lower than expected. The bad news goes back to the long-term highs seen on Tuesday. In a short-term context, we've definitely seen solid improvement since then. In the bigger
Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows
The good news is that mortgage rates ended the day at their lowest levels of the week. That's welcome news after Tuesday's rates matched the highest seen since July 2025. Today's improvement came courtesy of weakness in the stock market, which is not necessarily a common or reliable source of inspiration for rates these days. But a majority of this week's drop is tied to back-to-back inflation reports coming in much lower than expected. The bad news goes back to the long-term highs seen on Tuesday. In a short-term context, we've definitely seen solid improvement since then. In the bigger
17th July, 26
Housing Starts Snap Back as May's Multifamily Drop Proves Short-Lived
Residential construction rebounded in June as housing starts and completions recovered from May's unusually weak levels, though building permits continued to trend lower. The latest Census Bureau data suggests that while builders remain cautious about future projects, construction activity itself regained momentum after last month's sharp pullback. Privately owned housing starts jumped 19.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million , reversing much of May's decline and coming in 3.5% above the June 2025 pace. The headline increase was driven almost entirely by multifamily
Housing Starts Snap Back as May's Multifamily Drop Proves Short-Lived
Residential construction rebounded in June as housing starts and completions recovered from May's unusually weak levels, though building permits continued to trend lower. The latest Census Bureau data suggests that while builders remain cautious about future projects, construction activity itself regained momentum after last month's sharp pullback. Privately owned housing starts jumped 19.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million , reversing much of May's decline and coming in 3.5% above the June 2025 pace. The headline increase was driven almost entirely by multifamily
17th July, 26
Pending Home Sales Decline But Remain Broadly Range-Bound
Pending home sales declined in June as elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices continued to weigh on buyer demand. The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, fell 5.4% from May and was down 0.3% compared with a year earlier. The latest report suggests affordability remains a significant hurdle for prospective buyers. While employment gains continue to support household finances, higher borrowing costs and elevated home prices have kept many buyers, particularly first-time purchasers, on the sidelines. “
Pending Home Sales Decline But Remain Broadly Range-Bound
Pending home sales declined in June as elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices continued to weigh on buyer demand. The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, fell 5.4% from May and was down 0.3% compared with a year earlier. The latest report suggests affordability remains a significant hurdle for prospective buyers. While employment gains continue to support household finances, higher borrowing costs and elevated home prices have kept many buyers, particularly first-time purchasers, on the sidelines. “
17th July, 26
Builder Confidence Remains Stuck Near Post-Recession Lows
Builder sentiment weakened further in July as affordability challenges and ongoing economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the market for new single-family homes. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) slipped two points to 34 , marking the 15th consecutive month the index has remained below 40--the longest such stretch since 2012. The latest reading reflects persistent headwinds for the industry, with elevated mortgage rates, rising material costs, expensive land and ongoing labor shortages continuing to limit both builder confidence and
Builder Confidence Remains Stuck Near Post-Recession Lows
Builder sentiment weakened further in July as affordability challenges and ongoing economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the market for new single-family homes. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) slipped two points to 34 , marking the 15th consecutive month the index has remained below 40--the longest such stretch since 2012. The latest reading reflects persistent headwinds for the industry, with elevated mortgage rates, rising material costs, expensive land and ongoing labor shortages continuing to limit both builder confidence and
17th July, 26
Higher Refi Demand Despite Higher Rates
Mortgage application volume declined again last week as higher borrowing costs weighed on home purchase demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 10, even as refinance activity posted a modest rebound. Purchase applications fell 7% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 2% lower than the same week one year ago, marking a pullback after purchase demand had outpaced year-ago levels in recent weeks. Refinance activity moved in the opposite direction, with the
Higher Refi Demand Despite Higher Rates
Mortgage application volume declined again last week as higher borrowing costs weighed on home purchase demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 10, even as refinance activity posted a modest rebound. Purchase applications fell 7% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 2% lower than the same week one year ago, marking a pullback after purchase demand had outpaced year-ago levels in recent weeks. Refinance activity moved in the opposite direction, with the
17th July, 26
Broker and Corresp. Products; Verification, POS, Flood Cert. Tools; AI Governance; Vacancy Stats
I was speaking with a friend recently, and I asked her what she does for lunch. She replied, “Zentangle.” Yup, it’s a thing, something that wasn’t around when I was a kid. When I was a kid, people living on the street were known as homeless. Now the term is the “unhoused.” When I was a kid, any vacant house was usually creepy and rumored to have someone living there eating cat food. Now… of the nearly 150 million housing units in the United States, over 10 percent are vacant. Approximately 89.7 percent of the housing units in the United States in the first quarter 2026 were
Broker and Corresp. Products; Verification, POS, Flood Cert. Tools; AI Governance; Vacancy Stats
I was speaking with a friend recently, and I asked her what she does for lunch. She replied, “Zentangle.” Yup, it’s a thing, something that wasn’t around when I was a kid. When I was a kid, people living on the street were known as homeless. Now the term is the “unhoused.” When I was a kid, any vacant house was usually creepy and rumored to have someone living there eating cat food. Now… of the nearly 150 million housing units in the United States, over 10 percent are vacant. Approximately 89.7 percent of the housing units in the United States in the first quarter 2026 were
17th July, 26
Bonds Picking Up Some Safe-Haven Demand
In a month where bonds have made a visible reconnection with fuel prices thanks to the Iran war resurgence, there have been several notable departures in the correlation. Today is the latest example. If we're splitting hairs, we can still observe yields and fuel prices generally moving in the same direction overnight, but when fuel prices surged between 4am and 9am, bonds didn't really follow. One of the only ways to reconcile that phenomenon is via the fairly brisk selling in equities. S&P futures have repeatedly bumped into resistance around 7630. Thursday was the latest
Bonds Picking Up Some Safe-Haven Demand
In a month where bonds have made a visible reconnection with fuel prices thanks to the Iran war resurgence, there have been several notable departures in the correlation. Today is the latest example. If we're splitting hairs, we can still observe yields and fuel prices generally moving in the same direction overnight, but when fuel prices surged between 4am and 9am, bonds didn't really follow. One of the only ways to reconcile that phenomenon is via the fairly brisk selling in equities. S&P futures have repeatedly bumped into resistance around 7630. Thursday was the latest
16th July, 26
Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness
Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness Bonds lost ground modestly today with the ultimate damage being roughly an eighth of a point for MBS and less than a bp for 10yr yields. The selling was led by the short end of the curve (i.e. 2yr yields were up 1.5bps). There wasn't any obvious catalyst apart from an ongoing surge in fuel prices. Perhaps most notably, fuel futures peaked at the same time as bond yields and both declined together after that. We're also not bothered by the short end leading the selling considering how resoundingly it led the rally over the past 2 days. Bottom line:
Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness
Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness Bonds lost ground modestly today with the ultimate damage being roughly an eighth of a point for MBS and less than a bp for 10yr yields. The selling was led by the short end of the curve (i.e. 2yr yields were up 1.5bps). There wasn't any obvious catalyst apart from an ongoing surge in fuel prices. Perhaps most notably, fuel futures peaked at the same time as bond yields and both declined together after that. We're also not bothered by the short end leading the selling considering how resoundingly it led the rally over the past 2 days. Bottom line:
16th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Higher
While some news stories suggest that rates are the highest in 11 months today, that's not quite true. The highest rates of the year were seen on July 13th and May 19th when our 30yr fixed index hit 6.75%. The index was at 6.68% today, up from 6.64% yesterday. Any news regarding "highest rates since August 2025" is almost certainly citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate index which takes a 5 day trailing average rate through Wednesday and reports it on Thursday. As for the reason for today's increase, there really isn't a satisfying scapegoat. The strongest case to be made is that bond yields (
Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Higher
While some news stories suggest that rates are the highest in 11 months today, that's not quite true. The highest rates of the year were seen on July 13th and May 19th when our 30yr fixed index hit 6.75%. The index was at 6.68% today, up from 6.64% yesterday. Any news regarding "highest rates since August 2025" is almost certainly citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate index which takes a 5 day trailing average rate through Wednesday and reports it on Thursday. As for the reason for today's increase, there really isn't a satisfying scapegoat. The strongest case to be made is that bond yields (
16th July, 26
Hedging, Data Mapping, BER Letter, PPE Tools; AI Ramifications; Atty. Mitch Kider Joins Big Picture
Nearly every lender is at least learning about AI, but on the flip side there are things like New York’s ban on data centers. Lenders and vendors are not the only ones riding the tech wave, and no LO wants to be behind their client in tech knowledge. Consumers are now researching affordability, neighborhoods, and monthly payments long before contacting a lender. So, the next competitive advantage in mortgage lending lies in engaging buyers earlier through real-time affordability tools, personalized insights, and integrated financing experiences that build trust before rate shopping begins.
Hedging, Data Mapping, BER Letter, PPE Tools; AI Ramifications; Atty. Mitch Kider Joins Big Picture
Nearly every lender is at least learning about AI, but on the flip side there are things like New York’s ban on data centers. Lenders and vendors are not the only ones riding the tech wave, and no LO wants to be behind their client in tech knowledge. Consumers are now researching affordability, neighborhoods, and monthly payments long before contacting a lender. So, the next competitive advantage in mortgage lending lies in engaging buyers earlier through real-time affordability tools, personalized insights, and integrated financing experiences that build trust before rate shopping begins.