Latest news
2nd July, 26
Mortgage Rates Recover Somewhat
Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs report (normally a Friday affair) was instead released this morning. It ended up helping rates move lower. The jobs report (officially "The Employment Situation") measures new jobs created (or lost) each month in addition to the unemployment rate. The job count was much weaker than expected and, although the unemployment rate technically dropped, it did so for the wrong reasons (fewer people considered themselves part of the workforce). In fact, if
Mortgage Rates Recover Somewhat
Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs report (normally a Friday affair) was instead released this morning. It ended up helping rates move lower. The jobs report (officially "The Employment Situation") measures new jobs created (or lost) each month in addition to the unemployment rate. The job count was much weaker than expected and, although the unemployment rate technically dropped, it did so for the wrong reasons (fewer people considered themselves part of the workforce). In fact, if
2nd July, 26
Mortgage Applications Flat, Purchase Activity Edges Higher
Mortgage application activity was essentially unchanged last week, as a modest increase in purchase demand offset a slight decline in refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.04% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 26. Purchase activity provided the week's modest support. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% from the previous week and remained 3% higher than the same week one year ago, extending a trend of stronger year-over-year demand. Refinance activity eased slightly, with the Refinance Index
Mortgage Applications Flat, Purchase Activity Edges Higher
Mortgage application activity was essentially unchanged last week, as a modest increase in purchase demand offset a slight decline in refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.04% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 26. Purchase activity provided the week's modest support. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% from the previous week and remained 3% higher than the same week one year ago, extending a trend of stronger year-over-year demand. Refinance activity eased slightly, with the Refinance Index
2nd July, 26
Younger Borrower, Medical Professional; Full Loan Cycle AI; CEO Kim Nelson Interview; Non-Agency News
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reported on the performance of first-lien mortgages in the federal banking system during the first quarter of 2026. The OCC Mortgage Metrics Report, First Quarter 2026 showed that 97.7 percent of mortgages included in the report were current and performing at the end of the quarter, a slight increase from 97.6 percent in 2025. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights
Younger Borrower, Medical Professional; Full Loan Cycle AI; CEO Kim Nelson Interview; Non-Agency News
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reported on the performance of first-lien mortgages in the federal banking system during the first quarter of 2026. The OCC Mortgage Metrics Report, First Quarter 2026 showed that 97.7 percent of mortgages included in the report were current and performing at the end of the quarter, a slight increase from 97.6 percent in 2025. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights
2nd July, 26
Home Prices Growing Slower, But Outright Prices Still at All-Time Highs
Home price appreciation remained subdued in April, as the latest data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices continued to point to a housing market with little overall momentum. While annual price growth improved modestly from the prior month in both reports, elevated mortgage rates and ongoing affordability challenges continued to keep appreciation well below historical norms. FHFA reported that U.S. house prices declined 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, marking the first monthly decline since last summer. March's gain was also revised higher to 0
Home Prices Growing Slower, But Outright Prices Still at All-Time Highs
Home price appreciation remained subdued in April, as the latest data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices continued to point to a housing market with little overall momentum. While annual price growth improved modestly from the prior month in both reports, elevated mortgage rates and ongoing affordability challenges continued to keep appreciation well below historical norms. FHFA reported that U.S. house prices declined 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, marking the first monthly decline since last summer. March's gain was also revised higher to 0
2nd July, 26
Red Night, Green Morning After Weaker Jobs Data
Bonds continued drifting gently higher in the overnight session with 10yr yields just barely edging above 4.50% before today's big jobs report (the only calendar event of note before the holiday weekend). The reaction is perfectly reasonable given the data results. The payroll count was weaker (57k vs 110k, with another -71k of revisions) and bonds rallied immediately. If the 4-5bp rally in 10yr yields seems like less than you'd expect, turn your attention to 2 year yields which fell at a much quicker pace. This is a factor of its closer connection to the Fed Funds Rate (which makes sense if
Red Night, Green Morning After Weaker Jobs Data
Bonds continued drifting gently higher in the overnight session with 10yr yields just barely edging above 4.50% before today's big jobs report (the only calendar event of note before the holiday weekend). The reaction is perfectly reasonable given the data results. The payroll count was weaker (57k vs 110k, with another -71k of revisions) and bonds rallied immediately. If the 4-5bp rally in 10yr yields seems like less than you'd expect, turn your attention to 2 year yields which fell at a much quicker pace. This is a factor of its closer connection to the Fed Funds Rate (which makes sense if
1st July, 26
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling The past 2 days have been rough for the bond market--nothing catastrophic, but "brisk" in terms of unexpected selling pressure. To be fair, buying/selling pressure is never truly expected (otherwise, why wait to trade it?), and higher volatility was definitely a risk surrounding quarter-end and the data calendar. Today could have been worse, but the market found some solace in this morning's Warsh comments the ECB SINTRA conference. Warsh stuck to the "no forward guidance" script but managed to offer some in a roundabout way by
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling The past 2 days have been rough for the bond market--nothing catastrophic, but "brisk" in terms of unexpected selling pressure. To be fair, buying/selling pressure is never truly expected (otherwise, why wait to trade it?), and higher volatility was definitely a risk surrounding quarter-end and the data calendar. Today could have been worse, but the market found some solace in this morning's Warsh comments the ECB SINTRA conference. Warsh stuck to the "no forward guidance" script but managed to offer some in a roundabout way by
1st July, 26
Mortgage Rates Jump to Highest Levels in a Week
In a real sense, today's rate update is more of an addendum to yesterday's rate update. Yesterday afternoon saw heavy, continued selling in the bond market amid a flood of trading associated with the end of the quarter. Because mortgage rates are directly based on the bond market, this resulted in multiple lenders raising rates late in the day (after yesterday's update). Today has been much calmer by comparison with bonds holding fairly close to yesterday's latest levels after some early weakness. Even so, there was still some weakness for mortgage lenders to account for. From yesterday
Mortgage Rates Jump to Highest Levels in a Week
In a real sense, today's rate update is more of an addendum to yesterday's rate update. Yesterday afternoon saw heavy, continued selling in the bond market amid a flood of trading associated with the end of the quarter. Because mortgage rates are directly based on the bond market, this resulted in multiple lenders raising rates late in the day (after yesterday's update). Today has been much calmer by comparison with bonds holding fairly close to yesterday's latest levels after some early weakness. Even so, there was still some weakness for mortgage lenders to account for. From yesterday
1st July, 26
Accounting, AllReg's AI Tools; Isaac Boltansky Interview; CRA Stats; STRATMOR on LO Trust
We find ourselves in the 3rd quarter of 2026. The stock market has made the headlines, but between a) the reduction in the number of publicly held companies, and b) the weight given to AI-related stocks, it is worth reminding everyone that the stock market is not the economy. Economies are complex, as are countries. Did you know that more Europeans die each year from summer heat than Americans die from gun violence? Over 1,000 recently in France; 1,500 deaths in Western Europe are being attributed to the climate. Returning to this country, there are six state capitals West of Los Angeles. (You
Accounting, AllReg's AI Tools; Isaac Boltansky Interview; CRA Stats; STRATMOR on LO Trust
We find ourselves in the 3rd quarter of 2026. The stock market has made the headlines, but between a) the reduction in the number of publicly held companies, and b) the weight given to AI-related stocks, it is worth reminding everyone that the stock market is not the economy. Economies are complex, as are countries. Did you know that more Europeans die each year from summer heat than Americans die from gun violence? Over 1,000 recently in France; 1,500 deaths in Western Europe are being attributed to the climate. Returning to this country, there are six state capitals West of Los Angeles. (You
1st July, 26
Tuesday Sell-Off Sticking; Warsh and ISM On Deck
Bonds have added modestly to Tuesday's big quarter-end sell-off (a phenomenon that has nothing to do with the sorts of fundamental developments that dictate a vast majority of market movement). Thankfully, the random plumbing-related volatility is behind us as we begin the new quarter. Old-school potential volatility awaits. The morning's first order of business will be to see if Warsh says anything interesting at the SINTRA conference. After that, ISM Manufacturing data at 10am is a B+ market mover if it falls far enough from expectations.
Tuesday Sell-Off Sticking; Warsh and ISM On Deck
Bonds have added modestly to Tuesday's big quarter-end sell-off (a phenomenon that has nothing to do with the sorts of fundamental developments that dictate a vast majority of market movement). Thankfully, the random plumbing-related volatility is behind us as we begin the new quarter. Old-school potential volatility awaits. The morning's first order of business will be to see if Warsh says anything interesting at the SINTRA conference. After that, ISM Manufacturing data at 10am is a B+ market mover if it falls far enough from expectations.
30th June, 26
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day We expected volatility would pick up on Tuesday for one reason or another and it did not disappoint. Sadly, the direction of the movement was disappointing as bonds sold off steadily virtually all day. While there was a bit of selling after the job openings data at 10am ET, the bulk of the weakness is likely due to additional quarter-end position squaring and rebalancing (the same thing that helped bonds last Wednesday). This is mechanical, emotionless, non-reactive trading conducted simply to dial in certain levels of bond holdings to match investment
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day
Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day We expected volatility would pick up on Tuesday for one reason or another and it did not disappoint. Sadly, the direction of the movement was disappointing as bonds sold off steadily virtually all day. While there was a bit of selling after the job openings data at 10am ET, the bulk of the weakness is likely due to additional quarter-end position squaring and rebalancing (the same thing that helped bonds last Wednesday). This is mechanical, emotionless, non-reactive trading conducted simply to dial in certain levels of bond holdings to match investment