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26th June, 26
Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform
Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform Friday ended up offering a boring conclusion to a week that had at least some measure of excitement on Wednesday. Bonds started a hair stronger, lost ground modestly and then rallied to the day's best levels by noon. From there, 10yr yields went perfectly sideways in an ultra narrow range. MBS managed to hang on to just barely positive levels but gave up about an eighth of a point during the time Treasuries were holding steady. Technically, this is underperformance in a vacuum, but in the bigger picture, MBS have been doing just fine in relative
Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform
Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform Friday ended up offering a boring conclusion to a week that had at least some measure of excitement on Wednesday. Bonds started a hair stronger, lost ground modestly and then rallied to the day's best levels by noon. From there, 10yr yields went perfectly sideways in an ultra narrow range. MBS managed to hang on to just barely positive levels but gave up about an eighth of a point during the time Treasuries were holding steady. Technically, this is underperformance in a vacuum, but in the bigger picture, MBS have been doing just fine in relative
26th June, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows
Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest level in more than a month yesterday with MND's 30yr fixed index falling to 6.53% from 6.55% on Wednesday. Today was completely unchanged at 6.53%, thus maintaining the lowest level since May 14th, 2026. There weren't any dramatic developments behind the scenes in term of economic data or news headlines (not that we'd expect them when rates hold perfectly flat). This week's broader improvement can be attributed to buying demand in the bond market owing to large investors rebalancing their stock/bond portfolios before the end of the quarter. As
Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows
Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest level in more than a month yesterday with MND's 30yr fixed index falling to 6.53% from 6.55% on Wednesday. Today was completely unchanged at 6.53%, thus maintaining the lowest level since May 14th, 2026. There weren't any dramatic developments behind the scenes in term of economic data or news headlines (not that we'd expect them when rates hold perfectly flat). This week's broader improvement can be attributed to buying demand in the bond market owing to large investors rebalancing their stock/bond portfolios before the end of the quarter. As
26th June, 26
New Home Sales Slide to Multi-Year Lows
New home sales weakened further in May, extending the pullback seen over the past several months as elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressures continued to weigh on buyer demand. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 , down 7.3% from April and 6.8% from a year earlier. Inventory continued to build, with the number of new homes for sale rising to 496,000 , up 2.3% from April, though still 1.4% below May 2025 levels. At the current sales pace, that left months' supply at 10.3 months , up
New Home Sales Slide to Multi-Year Lows
New home sales weakened further in May, extending the pullback seen over the past several months as elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressures continued to weigh on buyer demand. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 , down 7.3% from April and 6.8% from a year earlier. Inventory continued to build, with the number of new homes for sale rising to 496,000 , up 2.3% from April, though still 1.4% below May 2025 levels. At the current sales pace, that left months' supply at 10.3 months , up
26th June, 26
Mortgage Applications Edge Higher Despite Elevated Rates
Mortgage applications posted a modest increase last week, though overall activity remained subdued by historical standards as borrowing costs held relatively steady. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.0% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 19. Refinance activity provided most of the support for the weekly gain. The Refinance Index increased 3% from the previous week and was 17% higher than the same period one year ago. Purchase demand slipped slightly but continued to hold above year-ago levels. The seasonally adjusted
Mortgage Applications Edge Higher Despite Elevated Rates
Mortgage applications posted a modest increase last week, though overall activity remained subdued by historical standards as borrowing costs held relatively steady. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.0% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 19. Refinance activity provided most of the support for the weekly gain. The Refinance Index increased 3% from the previous week and was 17% higher than the same period one year ago. Purchase demand slipped slightly but continued to hold above year-ago levels. The seasonally adjusted
26th June, 26
Housing Starts Not Nearly as Scary Without Weird Multifamily Nosedive
Residential construction activity cooled in May, as housing starts and completions both moved lower while building permits edged down only slightly. Last week's Census Bureau data suggests builders are still navigating uneven demand and affordability pressures, with a sharper pullback in starts than in permits. Privately owned housing starts fell 15.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million , down from April’s revised 1.392 million pace. Starts were also 8.7% below their May 2025 level. Single-family starts slipped 1.9% to 882k, while starts for units in buildings with five
Housing Starts Not Nearly as Scary Without Weird Multifamily Nosedive
Residential construction activity cooled in May, as housing starts and completions both moved lower while building permits edged down only slightly. Last week's Census Bureau data suggests builders are still navigating uneven demand and affordability pressures, with a sharper pullback in starts than in permits. Privately owned housing starts fell 15.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million , down from April’s revised 1.392 million pace. Starts were also 8.7% below their May 2025 level. Single-family starts slipped 1.9% to 882k, while starts for units in buildings with five
26th June, 26
Credit and Verification, AI Compliance, CRA Sourcing Tools; Housing Bill Stalls; HMDA Data; Inflation Hopes and Rates
We know that a) Congress passed a housing bill which, if not signed within 10 days, becomes law anyway, and b) U.S. presidents are known to be candid. Once again, we see the intersection of housing, lending, and politics with not only the postponement by the President of signing the bill, but also the statement of his alleged opinion about housing. The signing, originally scheduled for Wednesday, June 24, was called off just hours before it was set to begin. In a social media post, President Trump said he would not sign the housing package until Congress makes progress on separate election
Credit and Verification, AI Compliance, CRA Sourcing Tools; Housing Bill Stalls; HMDA Data; Inflation Hopes and Rates
We know that a) Congress passed a housing bill which, if not signed within 10 days, becomes law anyway, and b) U.S. presidents are known to be candid. Once again, we see the intersection of housing, lending, and politics with not only the postponement by the President of signing the bill, but also the statement of his alleged opinion about housing. The signing, originally scheduled for Wednesday, June 24, was called off just hours before it was set to begin. In a social media post, President Trump said he would not sign the housing package until Congress makes progress on separate election
26th June, 26
Sideways Start, Quiet Calendar, Quarter-End Volatility Potential
Q2 has been one of the best quarters for stocks going all the way back to the dot com boom, even after the 4-5% pullback in June. This has created a massive quarter-end rebalancing need among money managers and we've seen that random volatility play out in both stocks and bonds over the past few weeks. As the quarter wraps up in the next 3 business days, this could continue to drive volatility, but hopefully/probably less than it did earlier this week. Bonds are starting out roughly unchanged and have little else to focus on thanks to an uneventful economic calendar
Sideways Start, Quiet Calendar, Quarter-End Volatility Potential
Q2 has been one of the best quarters for stocks going all the way back to the dot com boom, even after the 4-5% pullback in June. This has created a massive quarter-end rebalancing need among money managers and we've seen that random volatility play out in both stocks and bonds over the past few weeks. As the quarter wraps up in the next 3 business days, this could continue to drive volatility, but hopefully/probably less than it did earlier this week. Bonds are starting out roughly unchanged and have little else to focus on thanks to an uneventful economic calendar
25th June, 26
Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains
Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory, but not weak enough to take 10yr yields above the 4.42% technical level. That was a notable development even before considering subsequent movement. The 8:30am PCE inflation data made room for a friendly reversal with modest losses being replaced by modest improvement. Bonds ultimately weren't able to hang onto the stronger levels seen in the morning with gradual selling in the late AM hours and another little pop of weakness following headlines that Iran had attacked a cargo ship in The Strait (not a U.S.
Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains
Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory, but not weak enough to take 10yr yields above the 4.42% technical level. That was a notable development even before considering subsequent movement. The 8:30am PCE inflation data made room for a friendly reversal with modest losses being replaced by modest improvement. Bonds ultimately weren't able to hang onto the stronger levels seen in the morning with gradual selling in the late AM hours and another little pop of weakness following headlines that Iran had attacked a cargo ship in The Strait (not a U.S.
25th June, 26
Lowest Mortgage Rates Since May 14th
Mortgage rates had a great day yesterday, moving within 0.01% of the lowest levels in more than a month. They dropped just a bit more today and are now officially the lowest they've been since May 14th. Today's improvement was more of an afterthought, but nonetheless helps legitimize yesterday's heavy lifting as something other than a freak coincidence. The only word of caution is that the last few weeks of any given quarter can see elevated volatility in a random pattern due to considerations in the trading world (mortgages are ultimately based on trading levels in the bond market). In
Lowest Mortgage Rates Since May 14th
Mortgage rates had a great day yesterday, moving within 0.01% of the lowest levels in more than a month. They dropped just a bit more today and are now officially the lowest they've been since May 14th. Today's improvement was more of an afterthought, but nonetheless helps legitimize yesterday's heavy lifting as something other than a freak coincidence. The only word of caution is that the last few weeks of any given quarter can see elevated volatility in a random pattern due to considerations in the trading world (mortgages are ultimately based on trading levels in the bond market). In
25th June, 26
Borrower Retention, AI Governance, Jumbo Products; Borrower Recapture Trends; MLO Opportunity Thoughts
Around the country, originators seem less focused on the housing bill signing ceremony postponement than on “opportunity.” There are opportunities, but not for every LO. There is the opportunity (and goal) of senior management to make their company immune from economic and world political turmoil. There is the opportunity to anchor the business to things that you can control, not to things that you can’t… like rates. Yesterday at the Mastermind Summit, Ryan Grant observed, “MLOs have the opportunity to hand a potential borrower a pre-approval letter in minutes but then explain to
Borrower Retention, AI Governance, Jumbo Products; Borrower Recapture Trends; MLO Opportunity Thoughts
Around the country, originators seem less focused on the housing bill signing ceremony postponement than on “opportunity.” There are opportunities, but not for every LO. There is the opportunity (and goal) of senior management to make their company immune from economic and world political turmoil. There is the opportunity to anchor the business to things that you can control, not to things that you can’t… like rates. Yesterday at the Mastermind Summit, Ryan Grant observed, “MLOs have the opportunity to hand a potential borrower a pre-approval letter in minutes but then explain to