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17th August, 26
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher Some summertime Mondays are slow and uneventful. Some see brisk movement. Today's was somewhere in between. There was modest pressure at the outset following headlines about Iran planning to escalate hostilities. The sharpest increase in oil prices coincided with Iran seizing a UAE tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields followed and hit the highs of the day shortly thereafter. Bottom line: fairly straightforward day, even if moderately unpleasant for fans of low rates. Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing 20.6 vs 11 f'cast, 15.6 prev
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher Some summertime Mondays are slow and uneventful. Some see brisk movement. Today's was somewhere in between. There was modest pressure at the outset following headlines about Iran planning to escalate hostilities. The sharpest increase in oil prices coincided with Iran seizing a UAE tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields followed and hit the highs of the day shortly thereafter. Bottom line: fairly straightforward day, even if moderately unpleasant for fans of low rates. Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing 20.6 vs 11 f'cast, 15.6 prev
17th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Start Week Higher
After ending last week near the lowest level since July 17th, mortgage rates are moving up to start the new week. Motivations are familiar. Escalation in U.S./Iran tensions is pushing fuel prices higher and bond yields continue to correlate. Bond yields correlate with consumer interest rates with near perfection. In mortgage-specific terms, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moved up 0.02% today to 6.73%. This is still much lower than the most recent high of 6.85%, but not quite as low as last Thursday's 6.69
Mortgage Rates Start Week Higher
After ending last week near the lowest level since July 17th, mortgage rates are moving up to start the new week. Motivations are familiar. Escalation in U.S./Iran tensions is pushing fuel prices higher and bond yields continue to correlate. Bond yields correlate with consumer interest rates with near perfection. In mortgage-specific terms, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moved up 0.02% today to 6.73%. This is still much lower than the most recent high of 6.85%, but not quite as low as last Thursday's 6.69
17th August, 26
Market Study, DSCR, POS, API Tools; Mortgage Rates and Capital Markets
Some aren’t a fan of new federal escrow laws. Ten states have sued the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency over new federal rules that would prevent them from enforcing laws requiring national banks to pay homeowners interest on money held in mortgage escrow accounts. Some weren’t fans of 10 percent credit card caps, 50-year mortgages, portable and/or assumable mortgages, but proponents say that the Administration is at least making suggestions. Congress’ effort to boost the nation’s housing supply passed both chambers with overwhelming bipartisan support and became law, although
Market Study, DSCR, POS, API Tools; Mortgage Rates and Capital Markets
Some aren’t a fan of new federal escrow laws. Ten states have sued the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency over new federal rules that would prevent them from enforcing laws requiring national banks to pay homeowners interest on money held in mortgage escrow accounts. Some weren’t fans of 10 percent credit card caps, 50-year mortgages, portable and/or assumable mortgages, but proponents say that the Administration is at least making suggestions. Congress’ effort to boost the nation’s housing supply passed both chambers with overwhelming bipartisan support and became law, although
17th August, 26
Under Some Pressure For Usual Reasons
It's just another day in post-Iran-war 2026. As such, bonds are taking cues from fuel price volatility which is in turn taking cues from the latest war-related headlines. In this morning's installment, there were several headlines around 8:30am that didn't help. The most relevant update involved Iran saying it was shifting to an offensive strategy and was setting a deadline for the U.S. to implement the ceasefire memo before escalating. This made for a quick, obvious, but relatively small pop in bond yields at the time. With that, we're starting the day in slightly weaker territory
Under Some Pressure For Usual Reasons
It's just another day in post-Iran-war 2026. As such, bonds are taking cues from fuel price volatility which is in turn taking cues from the latest war-related headlines. In this morning's installment, there were several headlines around 8:30am that didn't help. The most relevant update involved Iran saying it was shifting to an offensive strategy and was setting a deadline for the U.S. to implement the ceasefire memo before escalating. This made for a quick, obvious, but relatively small pop in bond yields at the time. With that, we're starting the day in slightly weaker territory
14th August, 26
Existing-Home Sales Ease Slightly, Remain Above Year-Ago Levels
Existing-home sales remained relatively stable in July despite elevated mortgage rates, with activity declining modestly from June while remaining above year-ago levels. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, sales fell 1.7% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million , but were 0.7% higher than in July 2025. “Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He noted that year-to-date sales are up 2.4% and suggested that the housing market could see
Existing-Home Sales Ease Slightly, Remain Above Year-Ago Levels
Existing-home sales remained relatively stable in July despite elevated mortgage rates, with activity declining modestly from June while remaining above year-ago levels. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, sales fell 1.7% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million , but were 0.7% higher than in July 2025. “Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He noted that year-to-date sales are up 2.4% and suggested that the housing market could see
14th August, 26
As Expected, Mortgage Apps Bounce in Response to Rate Reversal
Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as a moderate decline in mortgage rates provided some relief for both homebuyers and homeowners considering a refinance. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 3.6% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 7. Purchase applications increased 3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, but remained 1% below the same week one year ago. Borrowing costs remain elevated and continue to weigh on affordability and buyer demand. Refinance activity also improved, with the
As Expected, Mortgage Apps Bounce in Response to Rate Reversal
Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as a moderate decline in mortgage rates provided some relief for both homebuyers and homeowners considering a refinance. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 3.6% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 7. Purchase applications increased 3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, but remained 1% below the same week one year ago. Borrowing costs remain elevated and continue to weigh on affordability and buyer demand. Refinance activity also improved, with the
14th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to End The Week
First, the bad news: mortgage rates ended the day just a hair higher compared to Thursday, but the change was so small that many borrowers will see little--if any--difference in pricing. Now the good news: apart from yesterday afternoon, today's rates would still be the lowest in 4 weeks (i.e. you'd have to go back to July 17th to see anything lower). Lastly, some news that's neither good nor bad, but simply a bit confusing. Today's higher rates followed this morning's Retail Sales report which came in much weaker than expected. Conventional wisdom would have suggested that weaker data
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to End The Week
First, the bad news: mortgage rates ended the day just a hair higher compared to Thursday, but the change was so small that many borrowers will see little--if any--difference in pricing. Now the good news: apart from yesterday afternoon, today's rates would still be the lowest in 4 weeks (i.e. you'd have to go back to July 17th to see anything lower). Lastly, some news that's neither good nor bad, but simply a bit confusing. Today's higher rates followed this morning's Retail Sales report which came in much weaker than expected. Conventional wisdom would have suggested that weaker data
14th August, 26
Wholesale Lender, POS, Mortgage Intelligence Tools; Non-Agency Trends: Who's Doing What?
If you think that profit per loan, or gain per unit, is based purely on size, think about this short video. “Profit” can also be a personal measure in terms of income versus expenses. Owning a home is all about having a job and spending less than you earn. Bankrate’s 2025 Wage to Inflation Index revealed that prices rose 23 percent since the start of 2021 while wages were up a cumulative 22 percent. This is why many households feel like they’re falling behind, even if they’re making more money, not even looking at the current prices for gas or steak. For lenders interested in vendor
Wholesale Lender, POS, Mortgage Intelligence Tools; Non-Agency Trends: Who's Doing What?
If you think that profit per loan, or gain per unit, is based purely on size, think about this short video. “Profit” can also be a personal measure in terms of income versus expenses. Owning a home is all about having a job and spending less than you earn. Bankrate’s 2025 Wage to Inflation Index revealed that prices rose 23 percent since the start of 2021 while wages were up a cumulative 22 percent. This is why many households feel like they’re falling behind, even if they’re making more money, not even looking at the current prices for gas or steak. For lenders interested in vendor
14th August, 26
Good Luck Making Sense of Retail Sales Reaction
Based on a few research papers that have attempted to quantify the impact of various economic reports as well as the general consensus among economic calendar purveyors, Retail Sales is allegedly a top tier market mover. In fact, a somewhat recent attempt by CME to rank econ data has in 5th place ahead of CPI, PPI, and PCE. But in our experience, it is a report that has decent potential to cause market movement only when there's an open question as to the health of the economy. It is also easy for the market to look past when there are temporary factors in play. Fuel price volatility
Good Luck Making Sense of Retail Sales Reaction
Based on a few research papers that have attempted to quantify the impact of various economic reports as well as the general consensus among economic calendar purveyors, Retail Sales is allegedly a top tier market mover. In fact, a somewhat recent attempt by CME to rank econ data has in 5th place ahead of CPI, PPI, and PCE. But in our experience, it is a report that has decent potential to cause market movement only when there's an open question as to the health of the economy. It is also easy for the market to look past when there are temporary factors in play. Fuel price volatility
13th August, 26
Solid Data-Driven Gains
Solid Data-Driven Gains Thursday was a fairly straightforward session for bonds. Yields fell modestly overnight in response to slightly lower oil prices and then more forcefully after the cooler-than-expected PPI data. Mid-day fuel price volatility caused a slight pull-back, but not enough to undo a reasonably robust rally by the close. If there's a "yeah but," it's that yields remain broadly sideways near long-term highs and were unable to challenge last week's lows. Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/m (Jul) 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev Core PPI y/y (Jul) 4.2% vs 4.2% f'cast, 4.7% prev Jobless
Solid Data-Driven Gains
Solid Data-Driven Gains Thursday was a fairly straightforward session for bonds. Yields fell modestly overnight in response to slightly lower oil prices and then more forcefully after the cooler-than-expected PPI data. Mid-day fuel price volatility caused a slight pull-back, but not enough to undo a reasonably robust rally by the close. If there's a "yeah but," it's that yields remain broadly sideways near long-term highs and were unable to challenge last week's lows. Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/m (Jul) 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev Core PPI y/y (Jul) 4.2% vs 4.2% f'cast, 4.7% prev Jobless