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19th November, 25
Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher
Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher As expected, the recent raft of hawkish Fed speakers foreshadowed (whether intentionally or coincidentally) a hawkish message in today's Fed minutes. At issue: "many" meeting participants felt that a December cut would NOT likely be justified as opposed to "several" who disagreed. This was compounded by the fact that BLS rescheduled the early December jobs report for 12/16/25--6 days after the December Fed meeting. In other words, there won't be any employment data that would help the Fed justify a cut next month. Fed Funds futures agreed with a spike in implied
Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher
Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher As expected, the recent raft of hawkish Fed speakers foreshadowed (whether intentionally or coincidentally) a hawkish message in today's Fed minutes. At issue: "many" meeting participants felt that a December cut would NOT likely be justified as opposed to "several" who disagreed. This was compounded by the fact that BLS rescheduled the early December jobs report for 12/16/25--6 days after the December Fed meeting. In other words, there won't be any employment data that would help the Fed justify a cut next month. Fed Funds futures agreed with a spike in implied
19th November, 25
Rates Mostly Steady, But Some Signs of Trouble in The Afternoon
It was a complicated day for mortgage rates. Officially, at the time of this article, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate is a hair lower than it was yesterday. But rates are based on bonds and bonds are telling a different story. In the wake of the release of the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting, bonds lost ground. This implies higher rates. The only reason it hasn't resulted in higher rates today is timing. Specifically, the bond market losses just happened and most lenders have not yet made any adjustments. The implication is that tomorrow morning's rates would be
Rates Mostly Steady, But Some Signs of Trouble in The Afternoon
It was a complicated day for mortgage rates. Officially, at the time of this article, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate is a hair lower than it was yesterday. But rates are based on bonds and bonds are telling a different story. In the wake of the release of the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting, bonds lost ground. This implies higher rates. The only reason it hasn't resulted in higher rates today is timing. Specifically, the bond market losses just happened and most lenders have not yet made any adjustments. The implication is that tomorrow morning's rates would be
19th November, 25
QC Report, Relationship, Mobile Lock Tools; Zillow and ChatGPT; PHH Reverse Mortgage Sale to FAR
As I type these words, I am sitting in front of one of Chuck Berry’s early residences in St. Louis. STL has a good musical reputation, a fine mortgage association, a Fed that puts out great research, and has many nice neighborhoods. But to call this specific area where I am sitting a “transitional” neighborhood would be generous. Although there is potential, nearly every house standing could use an immense amount of work, and the residents probably aren’t regulars at home improvement stores. In fact, across the nation people aren’t rushing off to specifically Home Depot, either
QC Report, Relationship, Mobile Lock Tools; Zillow and ChatGPT; PHH Reverse Mortgage Sale to FAR
As I type these words, I am sitting in front of one of Chuck Berry’s early residences in St. Louis. STL has a good musical reputation, a fine mortgage association, a Fed that puts out great research, and has many nice neighborhoods. But to call this specific area where I am sitting a “transitional” neighborhood would be generous. Although there is potential, nearly every house standing could use an immense amount of work, and the residents probably aren’t regulars at home improvement stores. In fact, across the nation people aren’t rushing off to specifically Home Depot, either
19th November, 25
Yields Following Stocks Higher; Fed Minutes on Deck
Correlation between stocks and bonds is hit and miss depending on other factors. Before the age of more aggressive Fed intervention, it was more common to see yields move in concert with stocks. These days, Fed accommodation expectations can result in the opposite correlation. That said, there are still times when the old school "stock lever" is in full effect and this morning is one of them. It's been particularly noticeable since the 9:30am NYSE open as a recovery in stocks is apparently sapping the safe haven demand for Treasuries seen earlier in the week. Afternoon volatility
Yields Following Stocks Higher; Fed Minutes on Deck
Correlation between stocks and bonds is hit and miss depending on other factors. Before the age of more aggressive Fed intervention, it was more common to see yields move in concert with stocks. These days, Fed accommodation expectations can result in the opposite correlation. That said, there are still times when the old school "stock lever" is in full effect and this morning is one of them. It's been particularly noticeable since the 9:30am NYSE open as a recovery in stocks is apparently sapping the safe haven demand for Treasuries seen earlier in the week. Afternoon volatility
18th November, 25
Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility
Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility With only a few exceptions, bonds have been a rudderless ship during the government shutdown. With the backlogged data returning in a slow and uncertain fashion, rudder repairs are similarly slow. In today's case, bonds benefited from overnight strength in overseas bond markets and a bit of ongoing weakness in stocks. The surprise release of stale jobless claims data did nothing to inspire and there was limited benefit from another negative print in the weekly ADP numbers. As soon as EU bonds closed for the day, US bonds began selling off. The damage was
Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility
Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility With only a few exceptions, bonds have been a rudderless ship during the government shutdown. With the backlogged data returning in a slow and uncertain fashion, rudder repairs are similarly slow. In today's case, bonds benefited from overnight strength in overseas bond markets and a bit of ongoing weakness in stocks. The surprise release of stale jobless claims data did nothing to inspire and there was limited benefit from another negative print in the weekly ADP numbers. As soon as EU bonds closed for the day, US bonds began selling off. The damage was
18th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Yet Again as Data Returns
With economic data being the most consistent source of motivation for rates, the market has been eager for it to return with the reopening of the government. While some higher profile reports have been rescheduled for the coming days (i.e. on Thursday, we'll get the jobs report that we were supposed to get in early October), most updated release dates remain TBD. Then there are the "surprise" releases--reports that completely skipped the step of being officially rescheduled and were simply released at a random moment with no warning. Such was the case with Jobless Claims data this
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Yet Again as Data Returns
With economic data being the most consistent source of motivation for rates, the market has been eager for it to return with the reopening of the government. While some higher profile reports have been rescheduled for the coming days (i.e. on Thursday, we'll get the jobs report that we were supposed to get in early October), most updated release dates remain TBD. Then there are the "surprise" releases--reports that completely skipped the step of being officially rescheduled and were simply released at a random moment with no warning. Such was the case with Jobless Claims data this
18th November, 25
AVM, Marketing, Tax Service, Blockchain Tools; Deep Dive on Lisa Cook and Alleged Fraud; Capital Markets
Supposedly commercial air travel is back to normal, good for anyone coming in for the Mortgage Bankers Association of St. Louis event tomorrow and Thursday’s Mortgage Bankers Association of Kansas City annual luncheon. Speaking of Missouri, the Pony Express ran between St. Joseph and Sacramento for 18 months in 1860–1861, put out of business by the telegraph. (I had an ancestor, Frank “Deafy” Derrick, who rode for the Pony Express.) The telegraph was a great example of “better, faster, cheaper” winning out. Non-Agency investors, such as non-QM, DSCR, HELOC, and 2nd investors have
AVM, Marketing, Tax Service, Blockchain Tools; Deep Dive on Lisa Cook and Alleged Fraud; Capital Markets
Supposedly commercial air travel is back to normal, good for anyone coming in for the Mortgage Bankers Association of St. Louis event tomorrow and Thursday’s Mortgage Bankers Association of Kansas City annual luncheon. Speaking of Missouri, the Pony Express ran between St. Joseph and Sacramento for 18 months in 1860–1861, put out of business by the telegraph. (I had an ancestor, Frank “Deafy” Derrick, who rode for the Pony Express.) The telegraph was a great example of “better, faster, cheaper” winning out. Non-Agency investors, such as non-QM, DSCR, HELOC, and 2nd investors have
18th November, 25
Bonds Buy The Dip Regardless of AM Data
We've seen a clumsy, confused return of various economic reports this morning (several reports were no previously announced with rescheduled release dates). Thankfully, the surprise releases were not big-ticket items. The most relevant report of the morning was ADP's new weekly job count ("NER Pulse") which showed another decline. By the time it came out, bonds had already rallied nicely in the overnight session. This suggests traders were already keen to buy the dip in prices that resulted in yields hitting the top of the recent range. The Cleveland Fed WARN notices (which came out late
Bonds Buy The Dip Regardless of AM Data
We've seen a clumsy, confused return of various economic reports this morning (several reports were no previously announced with rescheduled release dates). Thankfully, the surprise releases were not big-ticket items. The most relevant report of the morning was ADP's new weekly job count ("NER Pulse") which showed another decline. By the time it came out, bonds had already rallied nicely in the overnight session. This suggests traders were already keen to buy the dip in prices that resulted in yields hitting the top of the recent range. The Cleveland Fed WARN notices (which came out late
17th November, 25
Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform
Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform In the bigger picture, bonds were flat on Monday without any major volatility in either direction. But if we break out the microscope, we find longer-term Treasuries rallying modestly while MBS lost 1 tick by the 3pm close. In today's case, the MBS underperformance is most easily attributed to Treasuries' underperformance on Friday. Specifically, 10yr yields pressed up to new highs by the end of the day whereas MBS held just slightly above their mid-day lows. Said another way, if we look back 2 trading sessions instead of 1, there's no noticeable
Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform
Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform In the bigger picture, bonds were flat on Monday without any major volatility in either direction. But if we break out the microscope, we find longer-term Treasuries rallying modestly while MBS lost 1 tick by the 3pm close. In today's case, the MBS underperformance is most easily attributed to Treasuries' underperformance on Friday. Specifically, 10yr yields pressed up to new highs by the end of the day whereas MBS held just slightly above their mid-day lows. Said another way, if we look back 2 trading sessions instead of 1, there's no noticeable
17th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Begin New Week
The bond market (which dictates rates) was roughly unchanged over the weekend. As such, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates right in line with Friday's latest levels. For the average lender, this means conventional 30yr fixed rates are at the upper boundary of a narrow range stretch back to September 4th. It was the September 5th jobs report that sparked a rate rally that resulted in the lowest levels in over a year. Due to the government shutdown, that was the last time a jobs report was released. No that the government is reopen, the jobs report that normally would have come out at the
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Begin New Week
The bond market (which dictates rates) was roughly unchanged over the weekend. As such, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates right in line with Friday's latest levels. For the average lender, this means conventional 30yr fixed rates are at the upper boundary of a narrow range stretch back to September 4th. It was the September 5th jobs report that sparked a rate rally that resulted in the lowest levels in over a year. Due to the government shutdown, that was the last time a jobs report was released. No that the government is reopen, the jobs report that normally would have come out at the