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Bonds are technically just a hair stronger this morning, but in the slightly bigger picture, nothing has happened yet this week (not that we'd expect that to be the case before 10am on a Monday). The tech stock narrative that precipitated a sharp bond rally last Thursday continues to consolidate in a sideways pattern. Bonds are doing the same. Both are waiting for whatever's next. Wednesday's Fed announcement could be a source of inspiration if any forward guidance manages to slip through Warsh's forward guidance moat.
Slightly Weaker, But Much Stronger on The Week Friday was calm and sideways in the bigger picture. Sure, a 4+ bp increase in 10yr yields and an MBS decline of just over an eighth of a point might sound somewhat unpleasant on the average day, but considering we saw 4 times as much movement in the other, friendlier direction yesterday, we're not bothered. Rationale was rational to boot. The NASDAQ drifted sideways to slightly higher and nittier grittier canaries like Coreweave bond yields bounced back slightly lower as well. Overall, today did nothing to change the big picture. We're still…
Yesterday was an exciting day for rates with the lowest levels since September 23rd and a fairly brisk decline versus the previous day. Today? Fairly boring by comparison. Rates were technically a hair higher, which isn't too surprising given the prevailing motivations in the tech sector. Yesterday's rate rally coincided with heavy selling in tech stocks. With those same stocks avoiding drama today (and the NASDAQ moving slightly higher overall), bond yields (aka "rates") also inched higher. The average mortgage lender moved up 0.03% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario leaving our index…
Mortgage applications continued to decline even as mortgage rates finally moved lower. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 5.3% drop in total application volume for the week ending October 16, despite the first weekly decline in mortgage rates in more than two months. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 7.41% from 7.50% the previous week. That improvement wasn't enough to revive demand, with both purchase and refinance applications moving lower. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 7% for the week and was 18% below year-ago levels . Refinances fared somewhat…
Residential construction failed to find even footing in September, with housing starts declining and single-family building permits pulling back, while total permits held nearly steady and completions edged higher. This week's Census Bureau data highlights weakness in new construction, particularly on the single-family side, while starts and completions were comparatively stable. Privately owned housing starts fell 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221 million , down 7.4% from September 2025. Single-family starts declined 4.6% to 859k , and multi-family came in at 349k . Building…
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped three points to 29 in October--its lowest level in 14 years. As per usual, higher mortgage rates, rising costs, and worsening labor and lot conditions were the driving factors. All three component indices declined, with prospective buyer traffic suffering the steepest drop. HMI Component September October Change Current sales conditions 35 33 -2 Sales expectations 37 32 -5 Prospective buyer traffic 23 18 -5 "Buyer traffic has now fallen to its lowest level since April 2012, excluding the…
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Little has changed between yesterday's close and this morning's early trading. 10yr yields are still several bps under 5%. MBS are still effectively at the highest levels in a month. Tech isn't happy, with futures hugging yesterday's lows ahead of the open. One difference, however, is that we'll get a piece of economic data this morning that had a shockingly big impact on bonds when it came out last month: S&P PMIs. We're still incredulous about the 9/23 sell-off being driven by S&P PMIs, but we haven't seen a better explanation. That said, the jury's out as to whether that's a…
Tech Tanks and Bonds Pick Up The Slack What began with focus on funding concerns for Coreweave (and, to a lesser degree, a very small handful of other companies) is spreading to bigger tech names today. Mix and match your favorite combo of disappointing earnings, underwhelming guidance, or cautionary tales from analysts. Any combo you choose adds up to massive losses in tech stocks. From there, several avenues lead back to bond buying. At the most superficial level, we can simply say it's a flight to safety. But thinking deeper, an ongoing AI capex slowdown has implications for econ data and…
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