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27th August, 25
Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start
Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory, but not for any particular reason (and certainly for no interesting reasons). For those who care about such things, the yield curve continued to steepen (shorter term yields outperforming longer term yields), but this is fairly irrelevant to the mortgage world as MBS are relatively neutral in curve trading terms (durations are short enough not to get hurt when 30yr bonds are hurting, and long enough to avoid getting hurt when 2yr yields are hurting). Speaking of the neutral part of the curve, today's 5yr
Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start
Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory, but not for any particular reason (and certainly for no interesting reasons). For those who care about such things, the yield curve continued to steepen (shorter term yields outperforming longer term yields), but this is fairly irrelevant to the mortgage world as MBS are relatively neutral in curve trading terms (durations are short enough not to get hurt when 30yr bonds are hurting, and long enough to avoid getting hurt when 2yr yields are hurting). Speaking of the neutral part of the curve, today's 5yr
27th August, 25
Home Prices Still Growing, But at The Slowest Pace Since 2012
Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The takeaway remains the same: prices are rising year-over-year, but at an increasingly slow rate. Case Shiller--the more volatile index--is at the lowest pace in more than 2 years while the broader FHFA index is the lowest since 2012 in year-over-year terms. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) June: −0.2%; May was revised to −0.1% from unchanged YoY: +2.9% from June 2024 to June 2025 All nine census divisions remained positive YoY, with gains ranging from +0.
Home Prices Still Growing, But at The Slowest Pace Since 2012
Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The takeaway remains the same: prices are rising year-over-year, but at an increasingly slow rate. Case Shiller--the more volatile index--is at the lowest pace in more than 2 years while the broader FHFA index is the lowest since 2012 in year-over-year terms. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) June: −0.2%; May was revised to −0.1% from unchanged YoY: +2.9% from June 2024 to June 2025 All nine census divisions remained positive YoY, with gains ranging from +0.
27th August, 25
New Home Market Remains Stuck in Neutral
The latest New Home Sales report showed little change in July, with sales holding very close to June’s pace. The seasonally-adjusted annual sales rate came in at 652,000. This marks a -0.6% dip from June’s revised 656,000, and leaves sales -8.2% lower than July 2024’s 710,000 level. For all practical purposes, the pace of sales continues to run sideways, reflecting the same stable range seen over the past 2+ years despite periodic swings. Regional Breakdown (Sales, July 2025) South: -3.5% MoM Midwest: -6.6% MoM Northeast: unchanged MoM West: +11.7% MoM Market Inventory & Pricing
New Home Market Remains Stuck in Neutral
The latest New Home Sales report showed little change in July, with sales holding very close to June’s pace. The seasonally-adjusted annual sales rate came in at 652,000. This marks a -0.6% dip from June’s revised 656,000, and leaves sales -8.2% lower than July 2024’s 710,000 level. For all practical purposes, the pace of sales continues to run sideways, reflecting the same stable range seen over the past 2+ years despite periodic swings. Regional Breakdown (Sales, July 2025) South: -3.5% MoM Midwest: -6.6% MoM Northeast: unchanged MoM West: +11.7% MoM Market Inventory & Pricing
27th August, 25
Mixed Mortgage Demand, But Lower Rates Should Help Next Week's Refi Numbers
Mortgage application activity was little changed last week, with only a fractional decline in overall volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 0.5% decrease in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 22, 2025. “Mortgage rates inched higher for the second straight week, with the 30-year fixed-rate up to 6.69 percent. While this was not a significant increase, it was enough to cause a pullback in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications had their strongest week in
Mixed Mortgage Demand, But Lower Rates Should Help Next Week's Refi Numbers
Mortgage application activity was little changed last week, with only a fractional decline in overall volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 0.5% decrease in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 22, 2025. “Mortgage rates inched higher for the second straight week, with the 30-year fixed-rate up to 6.69 percent. While this was not a significant increase, it was enough to cause a pullback in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications had their strongest week in
27th August, 25
Mortgage Rates Hit Another 2025 Low
It continues to be the case that day-to-day changes in average mortgage rates are very small. Today was no exception in that regard. Nonetheless, today represents a technical "record low" for 2025 with average rates edging just slightly lower than those seen on August 22nd and 26th. Our index (which tracks top tier, conventional 30yr fixed rates for ideal scenarios) is now 6.51%, the lowest it's been since October 3rd 2024 when it was 6.26%. Virtually all of the recent improvement in rates followed the August 1st jobs report. Everything since August 4th has transpired in a relatively narrow
Mortgage Rates Hit Another 2025 Low
It continues to be the case that day-to-day changes in average mortgage rates are very small. Today was no exception in that regard. Nonetheless, today represents a technical "record low" for 2025 with average rates edging just slightly lower than those seen on August 22nd and 26th. Our index (which tracks top tier, conventional 30yr fixed rates for ideal scenarios) is now 6.51%, the lowest it's been since October 3rd 2024 when it was 6.26%. Virtually all of the recent improvement in rates followed the August 1st jobs report. Everything since August 4th has transpired in a relatively narrow
27th August, 25
Cost to Originate; Automatic Lender, Custom Software; Disaster News; Mr. Cooper Acquisition; Fed Independence
I was today years old when I realized that the shovel was literally a groundbreaking invention. The best ads and marketing focus on rates and products, right? Wrong. From Florida, Todd P. reminds me of a powerful, memorable lending ad that doesn’t even mention words like mortgage or loan or technology or lending. What message are you sending to potential clients? Loan officers are intent on offering the right products, service, and pricing to clients (read the piece on optimism below), but there is a lot going on “out there” that is impacting the psychology of borrowers. Beginning on
Cost to Originate; Automatic Lender, Custom Software; Disaster News; Mr. Cooper Acquisition; Fed Independence
I was today years old when I realized that the shovel was literally a groundbreaking invention. The best ads and marketing focus on rates and products, right? Wrong. From Florida, Todd P. reminds me of a powerful, memorable lending ad that doesn’t even mention words like mortgage or loan or technology or lending. What message are you sending to potential clients? Loan officers are intent on offering the right products, service, and pricing to clients (read the piece on optimism below), but there is a lot going on “out there” that is impacting the psychology of borrowers. Beginning on
27th August, 25
Light Data Calendar Leaves Focus on Treasury Auctions. Do Earning Matter?
Not that this week's economic calendar is especially robust, but Wednesday's offerings are especially light. There are no monthly economic reports on tap and no major events. The only potential market mover on the calendar is the 1pm auction of
Light Data Calendar Leaves Focus on Treasury Auctions. Do Earning Matter?
Not that this week's economic calendar is especially robust, but Wednesday's offerings are especially light. There are no monthly economic reports on tap and no major events. The only potential market mover on the calendar is the 1pm auction of
26th August, 25
Does "Yield Curve Steepening" Matter?
Modest, Incidental Victory Bonds closed with MBS in line with their best levels of the day, up an eighth of a point. 10yr yields fell just under 1bp to 4.264. 2yr yields did better, shedding just over 4bps and extending their gap vs 10yr yields to the widest levels since the volatile days in early April. The AM news cycle credited the news of Trump firing the Fed's Lisa Cook for this "steepening" (a steeper slope between 2 and 10yr yields). Indeed, it may have contributed, but it's debatable whether this level of movement in the curve actually matters. 2s vs 10s have been holding a tight
Does "Yield Curve Steepening" Matter?
Modest, Incidental Victory Bonds closed with MBS in line with their best levels of the day, up an eighth of a point. 10yr yields fell just under 1bp to 4.264. 2yr yields did better, shedding just over 4bps and extending their gap vs 10yr yields to the widest levels since the volatile days in early April. The AM news cycle credited the news of Trump firing the Fed's Lisa Cook for this "steepening" (a steeper slope between 2 and 10yr yields). Indeed, it may have contributed, but it's debatable whether this level of movement in the curve actually matters. 2s vs 10s have been holding a tight
26th August, 25
Mortgage Rates Back in Line With Long-Term Lows
Mortgage rates tend to move at least a little every day although they haven't been moving too much in the bigger picture recently. The only truly memorable move int he past few months occurred after the August 1st jobs report. It resulted in a 2-day drop from 6.75% to 6.57%. The next closest contender was last Friday's reaction to Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech which took the index from 6.62 to 6.52. So far this week, we've been holding very close to those levels. Yesterday saw a modest bump and today pushed rates back down to Friday's levels. The end. This week's
Mortgage Rates Back in Line With Long-Term Lows
Mortgage rates tend to move at least a little every day although they haven't been moving too much in the bigger picture recently. The only truly memorable move int he past few months occurred after the August 1st jobs report. It resulted in a 2-day drop from 6.75% to 6.57%. The next closest contender was last Friday's reaction to Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech which took the index from 6.62 to 6.52. So far this week, we've been holding very close to those levels. Yesterday saw a modest bump and today pushed rates back down to Friday's levels. The end. This week's
26th August, 25
Another Slow Start Despite Underlying Drama
Focusing only production MBS coupons and longer-term Treasuries, the bond market is off to another slow, sideways start today with minimal change versus yesterday. With all of this morning's data now reported, we've seen no measurable impact on bonds. The overnight session was a different story but not due to econ data. Rather, bonds responded to Trump's firing of Fed Governor Cook (a process that is more complicated than it sounds) with a steepening of the yield curve (2yr yields moved lower versus 10yr yields). The steepening is consistent with the view that Cook's
Another Slow Start Despite Underlying Drama
Focusing only production MBS coupons and longer-term Treasuries, the bond market is off to another slow, sideways start today with minimal change versus yesterday. With all of this morning's data now reported, we've seen no measurable impact on bonds. The overnight session was a different story but not due to econ data. Rather, bonds responded to Trump's firing of Fed Governor Cook (a process that is more complicated than it sounds) with a steepening of the yield curve (2yr yields moved lower versus 10yr yields). The steepening is consistent with the view that Cook's