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9th February, 26
Early Volatility And a Decent Recovery
Early Volatility And a Decent Recovery Bonds lost ground in the overnight session after Chinese regulators cautioned banks against holding US Treasuries. That move was short-lived and more than fully erased before 9am ET. Part of the bounce back can be attributed to a newswire quoting Hassett saying we should expect slightly lower jobs numbers. Some may view this as telegraphing advanced knowledge of Wednesday's numbers, but that would be highly unlikely based on the typical protocol (Council of Economic Advisors Chair typically gets advance notice the afternoon before a key economic report).&
Early Volatility And a Decent Recovery
Early Volatility And a Decent Recovery Bonds lost ground in the overnight session after Chinese regulators cautioned banks against holding US Treasuries. That move was short-lived and more than fully erased before 9am ET. Part of the bounce back can be attributed to a newswire quoting Hassett saying we should expect slightly lower jobs numbers. Some may view this as telegraphing advanced knowledge of Wednesday's numbers, but that would be highly unlikely based on the typical protocol (Council of Economic Advisors Chair typically gets advance notice the afternoon before a key economic report).&
9th February, 26
Mortgage Rates Roughly Flat to Start The Week
The past 2 weeks have seen very little volatility for mortgage rates. After being near 6% for a week in early January, rates rose abruptly to 6.21% (avg top tier 30yr fixed) on January 20th in response to geopolitical drama. They've generally descended since then, but in slow, measured steps. Today's result was actually a 0.01% increase in the MND rate index, but that's not terrible news considering last week ended at 2 week lows. In the bigger picture, apart from the super low week in early January, recent rates have been in line with the lowest levels in years. Last week's
Mortgage Rates Roughly Flat to Start The Week
The past 2 weeks have seen very little volatility for mortgage rates. After being near 6% for a week in early January, rates rose abruptly to 6.21% (avg top tier 30yr fixed) on January 20th in response to geopolitical drama. They've generally descended since then, but in slow, measured steps. Today's result was actually a 0.01% increase in the MND rate index, but that's not terrible news considering last week ended at 2 week lows. In the bigger picture, apart from the super low week in early January, recent rates have been in line with the lowest levels in years. Last week's
9th February, 26
Analytics, Servicing, AI, Warehouse, Doctor Products; MBS Trends: Credit Scores Matter
Lenders are always analyzing automation for parts of the manufacturing process, and industry vet and STRATMOR Senior Advisor Sue Woodard has her thoughts about last week’s MBA conference. “The IMB has always been a barometer for where this industry actually is, not where slide decks say it should be. This year, the signal was unmistakable. The mood is more optimistic than it has been in years, attendance is strong, and conversations have shifted from survival to execution. But that optimism is disciplined. Lenders are encouraged, not complacent, and the challenges in front of us are well
Analytics, Servicing, AI, Warehouse, Doctor Products; MBS Trends: Credit Scores Matter
Lenders are always analyzing automation for parts of the manufacturing process, and industry vet and STRATMOR Senior Advisor Sue Woodard has her thoughts about last week’s MBA conference. “The IMB has always been a barometer for where this industry actually is, not where slide decks say it should be. This year, the signal was unmistakable. The mood is more optimistic than it has been in years, attendance is strong, and conversations have shifted from survival to execution. But that optimism is disciplined. Lenders are encouraged, not complacent, and the challenges in front of us are well
9th February, 26
AM Resilience After Overnight Weakness
Most nights, Treasuries trade in fairly low volume in a fairly narrow range. Last night's range wasn't much wider than normal, but most of the movement happened all at once. It was also accompanied by much higher volume than normal. These are surefire signs of the market reacting to data or news. In the current case, that news involved Chinese regulators asked banks to limit their exposure to Treasuries. This sounds more meaningful than it is, and domestic traders agreed when the trading day officially began at 8:20am ET
AM Resilience After Overnight Weakness
Most nights, Treasuries trade in fairly low volume in a fairly narrow range. Last night's range wasn't much wider than normal, but most of the movement happened all at once. It was also accompanied by much higher volume than normal. These are surefire signs of the market reacting to data or news. In the current case, that news involved Chinese regulators asked banks to limit their exposure to Treasuries. This sounds more meaningful than it is, and domestic traders agreed when the trading day officially began at 8:20am ET
6th February, 26
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform It was an uneventful day when it comes to scheduled data/events, and also pretty boring for the bond market in general. Most of the market's volatility continues playing out in stocks, commodities, crypto, etc. The most notable development for our area of focus was the MBS outperformance. Specifically, MBS were up about 2 ticks (.06) in price in the 2pm hour while 5 and 10yr Treasuries were down at least 6 ticks (.19) in price. Some of the Treasury weakness could be viewed as an artificial byproduct of yesterday afternoon's Treasury-specific late
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform It was an uneventful day when it comes to scheduled data/events, and also pretty boring for the bond market in general. Most of the market's volatility continues playing out in stocks, commodities, crypto, etc. The most notable development for our area of focus was the MBS outperformance. Specifically, MBS were up about 2 ticks (.06) in price in the 2pm hour while 5 and 10yr Treasuries were down at least 6 ticks (.19) in price. Some of the Treasury weakness could be viewed as an artificial byproduct of yesterday afternoon's Treasury-specific late
6th February, 26
Mortgage Rates Match Lowest Levels in Over 2 Weeks
In the bigger picture, the past two and a half weeks have been marked by a very narrow range in the bond market. Because bonds dictate mortgage rates, the latter have also been in a narrow range with average top tier 30yr fixed rates of 6.15-6.20%. Yesterday's employment-related data helped bonds improve. Many lenders made mid-day improvements to mortgage rates yesterday, but there was enough of a tailwind that the average lender was lower again this morning--now in line with the lower boundary of the recent range. Next Wednesday's labor market data is a higher stakes event--one that
Mortgage Rates Match Lowest Levels in Over 2 Weeks
In the bigger picture, the past two and a half weeks have been marked by a very narrow range in the bond market. Because bonds dictate mortgage rates, the latter have also been in a narrow range with average top tier 30yr fixed rates of 6.15-6.20%. Yesterday's employment-related data helped bonds improve. Many lenders made mid-day improvements to mortgage rates yesterday, but there was enough of a tailwind that the average lender was lower again this morning--now in line with the lower boundary of the recent range. Next Wednesday's labor market data is a higher stakes event--one that
6th February, 26
Winter Weather Puts Purchase Applications on Ice
Mortgage application activity moved lower again last week, extending the pullback from January’s earlier burst of demand as weather disruptions and softening purchase activity weighed on overall volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications declined 8.9% for the week ending January 30. The Market Composite Index fell 8.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis, while rising 4% on an unadjusted basis, highlighting the continued volatility in weekly application data following a period of unusually strong activity earlier in the month. This week, purchase activity took
Winter Weather Puts Purchase Applications on Ice
Mortgage application activity moved lower again last week, extending the pullback from January’s earlier burst of demand as weather disruptions and softening purchase activity weighed on overall volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications declined 8.9% for the week ending January 30. The Market Composite Index fell 8.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis, while rising 4% on an unadjusted basis, highlighting the continued volatility in weekly application data following a period of unusually strong activity earlier in the month. This week, purchase activity took
6th February, 26
BBYS, Servicer Risk, Verification Tools; Non-Agency News; Why Mortgage Rates Are Sticky
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Truework is a comprehensive income and employment verification platform that fully replaces manual in-house waterfalls and provides mortgage lenders with a single automated solution to run their verification processes. With Truework, lenders see up to 50% cost savings on verifications while increasing speed, accuracy, and R&W relief. We also offer free pre-approvals to help you qualify borrowers faster—only pay when we complete a file. Trusted by 4 of the top 5 lenders in the U.S., Truework is built to deliver results. Learn more.
BBYS, Servicer Risk, Verification Tools; Non-Agency News; Why Mortgage Rates Are Sticky
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Truework is a comprehensive income and employment verification platform that fully replaces manual in-house waterfalls and provides mortgage lenders with a single automated solution to run their verification processes. With Truework, lenders see up to 50% cost savings on verifications while increasing speed, accuracy, and R&W relief. We also offer free pre-approvals to help you qualify borrowers faster—only pay when we complete a file. Trusted by 4 of the top 5 lenders in the U.S., Truework is built to deliver results. Learn more.
6th February, 26
Waiting on Next Week's Data
Friday is the quietest day of the week in terms of scheduled econ data and events, with the relatively unimportant Consumer Sentiment being the only notable report. Bonds are roughly unchanged to start the session. Treasury yields are technically a few bps higher from yesterday's 5pm levels, but right in line with 3pm (what many would argue to be the proper time to mark daily closing levels in Treasuries). Thursday's trifecta of downbeat labor data piqued the market's interest in next week's big jobs report. But between now and then, Treasuries don't seem overly eager to re-enter the sub-4.20
Waiting on Next Week's Data
Friday is the quietest day of the week in terms of scheduled econ data and events, with the relatively unimportant Consumer Sentiment being the only notable report. Bonds are roughly unchanged to start the session. Treasury yields are technically a few bps higher from yesterday's 5pm levels, but right in line with 3pm (what many would argue to be the proper time to mark daily closing levels in Treasuries). Thursday's trifecta of downbeat labor data piqued the market's interest in next week's big jobs report. But between now and then, Treasuries don't seem overly eager to re-enter the sub-4.20
5th February, 26
Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data
Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data Bonds went on a bit of a buying spree on Thursday. It was the biggest rally day since November, at least, and that's impressive given the motivations. Specifically, there was a trifecta of downbeat labor market reports (Challenger, Jobless Claims, and Job Openings). Individually, none of these are worth a third of the move we saw today, but the whole was greater than the sum of its parts. There's also a 4th report being traded today: next week's big jobs report. In other words, between yesterday's ISM employment numbers and today's reports
Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data
Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data Bonds went on a bit of a buying spree on Thursday. It was the biggest rally day since November, at least, and that's impressive given the motivations. Specifically, there was a trifecta of downbeat labor market reports (Challenger, Jobless Claims, and Job Openings). Individually, none of these are worth a third of the move we saw today, but the whole was greater than the sum of its parts. There's also a 4th report being traded today: next week's big jobs report. In other words, between yesterday's ISM employment numbers and today's reports