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6th April, 26
Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game
Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game Monday may not have been an official holiday for the U.S. bond market, but it way as well have been. Volume certainly acted the part, which is no surprise considering overseas holiday closures. Headlines and data had a limited impact, at best. In general the market is waiting to see what happens in Iran after tomorrow night's deadline on Trump's ultimatum to reopen shipping channels. Econ Data / Events ISM N-Mfg PMI (Mar) 54.0 vs 55 f'cast, 56.1 prev ISM Services Employment (Mar) 45.2 vs -- f'cast, 51.8 prev ISM Services New Orders (Mar) 60.6 vs -- f'cast, 58.6
Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game
Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game Monday may not have been an official holiday for the U.S. bond market, but it way as well have been. Volume certainly acted the part, which is no surprise considering overseas holiday closures. Headlines and data had a limited impact, at best. In general the market is waiting to see what happens in Iran after tomorrow night's deadline on Trump's ultimatum to reopen shipping channels. Econ Data / Events ISM N-Mfg PMI (Mar) 54.0 vs 55 f'cast, 56.1 prev ISM Services Employment (Mar) 45.2 vs -- f'cast, 51.8 prev ISM Services New Orders (Mar) 60.6 vs -- f'cast, 58.6
6th April, 26
Mortgage Rates Steady to Slightly Lower
It was an uneventful day for mortgage rates with the average lender close enough to Friday's levels that borrowers would not see much of a difference between the two days. The bond market (which underlies and dictates rate movement) was still in quasi-holiday mode as most overseas markets were closed for holidays. Financial markets (including bonds) continue taking cues from major developments in the Iran war, but today ended up being more about waiting for those events based on Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen The Strait of Hormuz or face major escalation
Mortgage Rates Steady to Slightly Lower
It was an uneventful day for mortgage rates with the average lender close enough to Friday's levels that borrowers would not see much of a difference between the two days. The bond market (which underlies and dictates rate movement) was still in quasi-holiday mode as most overseas markets were closed for holidays. Financial markets (including bonds) continue taking cues from major developments in the Iran war, but today ended up being more about waiting for those events based on Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen The Strait of Hormuz or face major escalation
6th April, 26
BBYS, HELOC Processing Products; In-Person Events Through Year End; Population Shifts Matter
This year, “Bring a Kid to Work Day” is April 23. The name seems to have shifted: I remember “Bring Your Child to Work Day.” The population of the United States also shifts, something that lenders and originators are very aware of in the primary markets, and should be aware of in the secondary markets. Companies and job creators move, for various reasons. Population migration since 2019, accelerated by the pandemic, has shifted growth toward Sun Belt states like Texas and Florida while leaving places such as California flat and several Midwestern and Southern states declining, trends
BBYS, HELOC Processing Products; In-Person Events Through Year End; Population Shifts Matter
This year, “Bring a Kid to Work Day” is April 23. The name seems to have shifted: I remember “Bring Your Child to Work Day.” The population of the United States also shifts, something that lenders and originators are very aware of in the primary markets, and should be aware of in the secondary markets. Companies and job creators move, for various reasons. Population migration since 2019, accelerated by the pandemic, has shifted growth toward Sun Belt states like Texas and Florida while leaving places such as California flat and several Midwestern and Southern states declining, trends
6th April, 26
Roughly Unchanged as Holiday Effect Persists
Much of the international trading community remains on holiday today, making for lower volume and liquidity in the US. Bonds have managed to mostly shrug off Friday's stronger jobs report--a fact that we'd attribute mainly to the focus on the unemployment rate over the balmy payroll count. Additionally, war-related developments remain near the top of the heap of relevant market movers until their impacts translate more forcefully to economic data. On that note, we'll get ISM Services data this morning and CPI on Friday--both for the month of March. The weekend offered no meaningful changes in
Roughly Unchanged as Holiday Effect Persists
Much of the international trading community remains on holiday today, making for lower volume and liquidity in the US. Bonds have managed to mostly shrug off Friday's stronger jobs report--a fact that we'd attribute mainly to the focus on the unemployment rate over the balmy payroll count. Additionally, war-related developments remain near the top of the heap of relevant market movers until their impacts translate more forcefully to economic data. On that note, we'll get ISM Services data this morning and CPI on Friday--both for the month of March. The weekend offered no meaningful changes in
3rd April, 26
Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling
Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling The typical early close for the bond market is 2pm ET. This is usually reserved for a holiday-adjacent day such as Christmas Eve or the day after Thanksgiving. Good Friday is unique. On years where it DOES NOT coincide with a jobs report, it's fully closed. Otherwise, it's open for a partial day, but only until noon ET instead of 2pm. That didn't leave much time for anything else to happen this morning after the initial bout of moderate selling pressure. It also discouraged trading volume in general--especially in light of other markets being
Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling
Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling The typical early close for the bond market is 2pm ET. This is usually reserved for a holiday-adjacent day such as Christmas Eve or the day after Thanksgiving. Good Friday is unique. On years where it DOES NOT coincide with a jobs report, it's fully closed. Otherwise, it's open for a partial day, but only until noon ET instead of 2pm. That didn't leave much time for anything else to happen this morning after the initial bout of moderate selling pressure. It also discouraged trading volume in general--especially in light of other markets being
3rd April, 26
AI Due diligence, AI Guide, Data Mining Tools; Investor Agency Changes; Good Stats to Help LOs
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders The team at Model Match has launched the first phase of a complete platform overhaul, reimagining how lenders access and act on real estate, mortgage, and borrower data. The release centers on a simplified search experience across loan officers, agents, offices, and companies, alongside a major data expansion pushing coverage beyond 6 billion records. Model Match also introduced Market Signals, a new dataset providing visibility into mortgage activity from application through funding across roughly one in every two U.S. mortgages, along
AI Due diligence, AI Guide, Data Mining Tools; Investor Agency Changes; Good Stats to Help LOs
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders The team at Model Match has launched the first phase of a complete platform overhaul, reimagining how lenders access and act on real estate, mortgage, and borrower data. The release centers on a simplified search experience across loan officers, agents, offices, and companies, alongside a major data expansion pushing coverage beyond 6 billion records. Model Match also introduced Market Signals, a new dataset providing visibility into mortgage activity from application through funding across roughly one in every two U.S. mortgages, along
3rd April, 26
Logically Weaker After Solid Jobs Report, But It's a Ghost Town
Today's jobs report is/was the only big-ticket calendar event and the most obvious source of bond market inspiration. That's doubly true considering the even earlier-than-normal early close (12pm ET) for Good Friday. Payrolls were hot at 178k vs -133k previously. The big swing is the first hint that payrolls should be taken with a grain of salt. Large swings were expected, to some extent, due to large strikes and the end of those strikes. Weird weather played a role to a lesser extent. Strikes aside, the market has shifted its jobs report focus more toward the unemployment rate over the
Logically Weaker After Solid Jobs Report, But It's a Ghost Town
Today's jobs report is/was the only big-ticket calendar event and the most obvious source of bond market inspiration. That's doubly true considering the even earlier-than-normal early close (12pm ET) for Good Friday. Payrolls were hot at 178k vs -133k previously. The big swing is the first hint that payrolls should be taken with a grain of salt. Large swings were expected, to some extent, due to large strikes and the end of those strikes. Weird weather played a role to a lesser extent. Strikes aside, the market has shifted its jobs report focus more toward the unemployment rate over the
2nd April, 26
Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes
Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes Bonds were weaker to start the day with oil prices moving sharply higher after last night's Trump speech. But a few hours into the trading session, the move was completely erased and reversed after some fairly simple headlines regarding Iran/Oman working on a resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's speech and the Iran/Oman news may as well have been the only two things that happened today because those were the only moments with any serious market movement. The jobs report is on deck for tomorrow's holiday-shortened trading session. Econ Data / Events
Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes
Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes Bonds were weaker to start the day with oil prices moving sharply higher after last night's Trump speech. But a few hours into the trading session, the move was completely erased and reversed after some fairly simple headlines regarding Iran/Oman working on a resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's speech and the Iran/Oman news may as well have been the only two things that happened today because those were the only moments with any serious market movement. The jobs report is on deck for tomorrow's holiday-shortened trading session. Econ Data / Events
2nd April, 26
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Lower This Week
On any given Thursday, there's a decent enough chance that the average mortgage rate headline will be unintentionally misleading. At issue is media reliance on the longstanding weekly mortgage rate surveys. If news stories are going to cite this data, that's fine, but it's critical to understand the methodology. Whether it's MBA (reported yesterday) or Freddie Mac (reported today), the weekly surveys have an inherent reporting lag--that is, they are published at least a day after data collection ends. In addition, they represent an average of 5 business days. This means that the weekly
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Lower This Week
On any given Thursday, there's a decent enough chance that the average mortgage rate headline will be unintentionally misleading. At issue is media reliance on the longstanding weekly mortgage rate surveys. If news stories are going to cite this data, that's fine, but it's critical to understand the methodology. Whether it's MBA (reported yesterday) or Freddie Mac (reported today), the weekly surveys have an inherent reporting lag--that is, they are published at least a day after data collection ends. In addition, they represent an average of 5 business days. This means that the weekly
2nd April, 26
Social Security, Equity, Processing Tools; Freddie and Fannie Shifts; Release From Conservatorship Slim
“Rob, what do you hear about Fannie & Freddie being released from conservatorship?” Not much. Although it may change with one random tweet, the idea & process of jettisoning them is not even “on the back burner”… It may be back in the refrigerator. Maybe 2031? Both are certainly building up their net worth, but they don’t have enough capital to be released based on the amount of capital required under an Administrative Rule. The U.S. Government doesn’t want to lose control, or the income, and MBS traders and investors don’t want to lose the government guarantee. Scott
Social Security, Equity, Processing Tools; Freddie and Fannie Shifts; Release From Conservatorship Slim
“Rob, what do you hear about Fannie & Freddie being released from conservatorship?” Not much. Although it may change with one random tweet, the idea & process of jettisoning them is not even “on the back burner”… It may be back in the refrigerator. Maybe 2031? Both are certainly building up their net worth, but they don’t have enough capital to be released based on the amount of capital required under an Administrative Rule. The U.S. Government doesn’t want to lose control, or the income, and MBS traders and investors don’t want to lose the government guarantee. Scott