Very Strong Showing For Bonds Considering The Headwinds There were two major headwinds in play for the bond market today. Most obviously, the jobs report was very strong--something that would normally push rates logically and obviously higher. One can only run through a list of potential explanations to fit that paradoxical result (unemployment rate wasn't as far from forecasts, election impact still being weighed, tech stocks didn't bounce big, stale data if mid-October marked a shift in economic momentum) but mind you, no one would have pointed to these things as reasons for bonds to…
Today was an odd one for mortgage rates. Anyone who's been following the rate market for very long will tell you that the monthly jobs report is one of the most reliable source of volatility for rates. In general, when job growth is much stronger than expected, rates rise and vice versa. But in today's case, rates managed to hold perfectly flat despite the jobs report absolutely crushing expectations. Understand that no one who is offering a reason for this would have predicted this result if they knew the jobs numbers ahead of time and were simply asked to predict how rates would react. In…
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Nonfarm payrolls came in 100k higher than forecast and the unemployment dropped even as the participation rate moved higher. That's a recipe for a bond market sell-off if we ever saw one. But apart from an initial knee-jerk sell-off, yields returned back in line with pre-NFP levels within 8 minutes and haven't moved much since then. What gives? Well... we expect that this is one of those days where market commentators are forced to adapt their narrative to the trading as opposed to hoping the trading would validate their narrative. One caveat is that professional/biz services…
Stocks Got Rocked. Bonds Picked Up Some Slack Chipmakers and other tech names got absolutely rocked today starting at the 9:30am NYSE open. Hedge funds dumped semiconductors like a bad habit early and often (Sandisk down 20% anyone?!), and with tech comprising so much of the 2026 growth story, the rest of the stock market followed suit. Bonds were a hair weaker at 9:30am, but that rapidly changed due to the magnitude of the equity market exodus. Still, 10yr yields falling a mere 5-6bps is pretty underwhelming considering stocks had their worst day in over a year and hit their worst levels…
Yesterday, it was a drop below 7.25%. Today, the 7.20% floor was broken. Mortgage rates have been on a tear over the past month and are now back to 7.17% for the average lender. If there's one thing that deserves most of the credit for this bull run, it's the extreme bearishness in tech stocks. The NASDAQ is now down roughly 14% from the October highs and the drop perfectly coincides with the drop in bond yields and interest rates. The road ahead is fairly simple: if tech continues causing panic in stocks, interest rates can continue to benefit. The caveat is that the benefit to rates…
Why am I a sucker for stories like, “What Do the Twins in the Shining Look Like Now?”? Is the American public a sucker for not being more concerned that no politician seems concerned about the burgeoning deficit? Will there be any “fiscal conservatives” in Congress, or the White House? Here in Dallas, one of the topics, of course, is the election. Yesterday stocks rallied and rates both dropped, reminding us that they don’t have a consistent inverse relationship, mostly on removing the uncertainty about the election. Where do we go with reducing regulatory burdens for credit-worthy borrowers,…
Bonds are starting the day a few bps weaker. 10yr yields are just over 4.90% and considering they were almost 50bps higher a month ago, you're free to go about your business today without scrutinizing this morning's baby bump. It could be purely incidental. But for those who demand scapegoats, the easiest suspect to blame would be corporate debt issuance from Apple, which coincided with bonds breaking away from their overnight stock market correlation. In the bigger picture, we could consider investors might wonder if the NASDAQ just had another summer-sized correction and might now find…
Elections, Oil, and Neocloud Stocks, Oh My! There are 3 publicly traded neocloud stocks that are big enough to care about. All 3 hit new long term lows today (ranging from 6 months to over a year). All 3 continue to track very well with the recent bond market rally. This is simplest way to approach today's gains. The more you wander from that path, the more complex and circular the logic becomes. Oil prices have plummeted almost $20since last Friday. Seems like it should matter, and a few traders might agree. Then there's the election, which caused a surge in the broader stock…
30yr fixed rates moved over 7.25% on September 23rd, 2026 and continued to long-term highs of 7.61% by early October. But starting in mid October, rates began declining as the market grew increasingly concerned about the tech sector. Until today 7.27% marked the floor of the present rally. Now the floor is lower. Rates began the day moderately lower with an average top-tier 30yr fixed rate of 7.25%. Reasons can be debated, but may include: Investors coming off the sidelines after mid-term election uncertainty was cleared up Ongoing trouble for the neocloud portion of the tech sector (i.e.…
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