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29th April, 26
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed Because today was was a "Fed day" and because bonds hit their weakest levels of the day after the Fed announcement, we may look back on the selling and blame the Fed. In actuality, the Fed was only a small piece of the puzzle. Specifically, 10yr yields had already moved up from 4.34+ to 4.40 before the Fed announcement. At the 3pm CME close, there was only 1 more basis point of selling (4.41). The overnight/morning weakness was already covered in the morning commentary, but as a reminder, it had to do with the potential for a
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed Because today was was a "Fed day" and because bonds hit their weakest levels of the day after the Fed announcement, we may look back on the selling and blame the Fed. In actuality, the Fed was only a small piece of the puzzle. Specifically, 10yr yields had already moved up from 4.34+ to 4.40 before the Fed announcement. At the 3pm CME close, there was only 1 more basis point of selling (4.41). The overnight/morning weakness was already covered in the morning commentary, but as a reminder, it had to do with the potential for a
29th April, 26
Mortgage Rates Surge Higher as US Considers a Longer Blockade
Mortgage rates jumped higher today at the fastest pace in weeks to the highest levels since March 30th. There were two key motivations for the increase, but one accounted for a vast majority of the damage. News came out overnight that spoke to the possibility of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets took this seriously because it involved conversations with oil executives to assess the the impact of a prolonged blockade on domestic energy markets and fuel prices. Bond yields (which correlate with rates) and oil prices lurched higher again this morning after a White House
Mortgage Rates Surge Higher as US Considers a Longer Blockade
Mortgage rates jumped higher today at the fastest pace in weeks to the highest levels since March 30th. There were two key motivations for the increase, but one accounted for a vast majority of the damage. News came out overnight that spoke to the possibility of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets took this seriously because it involved conversations with oil executives to assess the the impact of a prolonged blockade on domestic energy markets and fuel prices. Bond yields (which correlate with rates) and oil prices lurched higher again this morning after a White House
29th April, 26
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Available Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in Developments in the Middle East for are contributing to a high level of
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Available Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in Developments in the Middle East for are contributing to a high level of
29th April, 26
CRM, Verification, AI, MERS Review, Credit Monitoring Tools; Disaster Updates; STRATMOR CD Workshop
Broker and Correspondent Products NFTYDoor, an end-to-end digital HELOC platform, announced last week it is now operating as a fully independent company, enabling direct partnerships with wholesale brokers and private label correspondents. Brokers are already active on the new structure - submitting applications and closing loans today with no waiting period, supported by NFTYDoor's combination of AI-powered origination and real people on every loan. Key enhancements include minimum FICO reduced from 640 to 600, maximum CLTV increased from 80 to 90 percent, maximum loan amount increased from $
CRM, Verification, AI, MERS Review, Credit Monitoring Tools; Disaster Updates; STRATMOR CD Workshop
Broker and Correspondent Products NFTYDoor, an end-to-end digital HELOC platform, announced last week it is now operating as a fully independent company, enabling direct partnerships with wholesale brokers and private label correspondents. Brokers are already active on the new structure - submitting applications and closing loans today with no waiting period, supported by NFTYDoor's combination of AI-powered origination and real people on every loan. Key enhancements include minimum FICO reduced from 640 to 600, maximum CLTV increased from 80 to 90 percent, maximum loan amount increased from $
29th April, 26
More Losses After Blockade Extension News
Last night's key news on the war involved reports of Trump telling aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran. The free flow of oil through Hormuz is the key market mover in this war, so it's no surprise to see oil prices lurch higher in response. Bond yields followed but have managed to hold under yesterday morning's highs so far. This morning's econ data definitely isn't rushing to help with Durable goods coming in much higher than expected. In other news, there is a Fed announcement today, but no chance of a cut or hike, and no dot plot. It's hard to imagine what could be said that
More Losses After Blockade Extension News
Last night's key news on the war involved reports of Trump telling aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran. The free flow of oil through Hormuz is the key market mover in this war, so it's no surprise to see oil prices lurch higher in response. Bond yields followed but have managed to hold under yesterday morning's highs so far. This morning's econ data definitely isn't rushing to help with Durable goods coming in much higher than expected. In other news, there is a Fed announcement today, but no chance of a cut or hike, and no dot plot. It's hard to imagine what could be said that
28th April, 26
Modest Gains After Opening Weaker
Modest Gains After Opening Weaker Tuesday ended up being a uneventful trading session despite 10yr yields hitting 3-week highs. Those highs were in place right at the open and things gradually improved from there. Markets are expressing a token amount of concern over the lack of progress on US/Iran peace, which continues to be the biggest potential market mover. Notably, there was also an obvious reaction to Consumer Confidence data today (even though it was very small). This lets us know we can't tune out other econ data just because the broader momentum is more likely tied to
Modest Gains After Opening Weaker
Modest Gains After Opening Weaker Tuesday ended up being a uneventful trading session despite 10yr yields hitting 3-week highs. Those highs were in place right at the open and things gradually improved from there. Markets are expressing a token amount of concern over the lack of progress on US/Iran peace, which continues to be the biggest potential market mover. Notably, there was also an obvious reaction to Consumer Confidence data today (even though it was very small). This lets us know we can't tune out other econ data just because the broader momentum is more likely tied to
28th April, 26
Mortgage Rates Rise to 2-Week Highs
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today for the average lender, but not for any exciting reasons. Rather, the change has more to do with timing of the underlying market movement. While it's true that mortgage rates are directly influenced by the bond market, mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day. From there, they will occasionally make adjustments if the bond market experiences enough volatility. The catch is that lenders are less likely to adjust rates the later it is in the afternoon and if the bond market has been changing steadily/gradually. With all that in mind,
Mortgage Rates Rise to 2-Week Highs
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today for the average lender, but not for any exciting reasons. Rather, the change has more to do with timing of the underlying market movement. While it's true that mortgage rates are directly influenced by the bond market, mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day. From there, they will occasionally make adjustments if the bond market experiences enough volatility. The catch is that lenders are less likely to adjust rates the later it is in the afternoon and if the bond market has been changing steadily/gradually. With all that in mind,
28th April, 26
Investor, Workflow, Accounting, AI, DPA Tools; LOs and Technology; Fed Meeting Starts
The big keep getting bigger: Real Brokerage announced that it is purchasing RE/MAX for $550 million, revealing that, including debt, the deal is worth an estimated $880 million. The name will be the Real REMAX Group (“a transformative opportunity to fuse REMAX’s strong brand equity with leading AI technology”) and it’s been reported that Motto Mortgage, owned by RE/MAX, will retain its current business model of a mortgage brokerage franchisor following the completion of this deal. REMAX doesn’t belong to the National Association of Realtors, although “they” say that 87 percent of
Investor, Workflow, Accounting, AI, DPA Tools; LOs and Technology; Fed Meeting Starts
The big keep getting bigger: Real Brokerage announced that it is purchasing RE/MAX for $550 million, revealing that, including debt, the deal is worth an estimated $880 million. The name will be the Real REMAX Group (“a transformative opportunity to fuse REMAX’s strong brand equity with leading AI technology”) and it’s been reported that Motto Mortgage, owned by RE/MAX, will retain its current business model of a mortgage brokerage franchisor following the completion of this deal. REMAX doesn’t belong to the National Association of Realtors, although “they” say that 87 percent of
28th April, 26
Highest Yields in 3 Weeks as US Shuns Iran Proposal
Bonds sold off slowly and steadily overnight, largely tracing a similarly steady rise in oil prices. The latter is most easily attributed to reports that Trump is not happy with the latest Iran peace proposal although those reports stopped short of saying the proposal was flat-out rejected. There was additional volatility in oil prices surrounding news that the UAE is pulling out of OPEC, but that mostly resolved with oil moving off the highs (more competition, less supply throttling expected). Most recently a decent showing in Consumer Confidence is keeping bonds in a defensive stance
Highest Yields in 3 Weeks as US Shuns Iran Proposal
Bonds sold off slowly and steadily overnight, largely tracing a similarly steady rise in oil prices. The latter is most easily attributed to reports that Trump is not happy with the latest Iran peace proposal although those reports stopped short of saying the proposal was flat-out rejected. There was additional volatility in oil prices surrounding news that the UAE is pulling out of OPEC, but that mostly resolved with oil moving off the highs (more competition, less supply throttling expected). Most recently a decent showing in Consumer Confidence is keeping bonds in a defensive stance
27th April, 26
Modest Weakness, But Range Persists
Modest Weakness, But Range Persists Bonds lost ground today, but not for any particular reason. Most importantly, there was no major reaction to the lack of progress in peace talks over the weekend (which would have been hard considering the talks didn't happen). Earlier in the war, this sort of development would have had a more noticeable impact. At this point, markets are waiting on the biggest news. Until that news breaks, bonds are content to wander aimlessly in the same sideways range that's been intact for the entire month. For those who insist on assigning blame for today's modestly
Modest Weakness, But Range Persists
Modest Weakness, But Range Persists Bonds lost ground today, but not for any particular reason. Most importantly, there was no major reaction to the lack of progress in peace talks over the weekend (which would have been hard considering the talks didn't happen). Earlier in the war, this sort of development would have had a more noticeable impact. At this point, markets are waiting on the biggest news. Until that news breaks, bonds are content to wander aimlessly in the same sideways range that's been intact for the entire month. For those who insist on assigning blame for today's modestly