Latest news
31st July, 26
Verification, CRA Tracking, State-Level Tax and MGIC Webinars, Non-Agency Product Developments
I am no numerologist, but Freddie Mac’s announcement yesterday, that 30-year mortgage rates are averaging 6.66, caught my attention. Unlike rumors, like the one going around about a Texas IMB buying California IMB, hard, provable numbers are hard to argue with… Like the hundreds of thousands of people every month turning 62. Setting up a reverse division at your company isn’t as difficult, say, parachuting beavers into Idaho. Why should lenders have a reverse mortgage division? Housing wealth among homeowners aged 62 and older rose in Q1 2026 to a record $14.92 trillion, according to the
Verification, CRA Tracking, State-Level Tax and MGIC Webinars, Non-Agency Product Developments
I am no numerologist, but Freddie Mac’s announcement yesterday, that 30-year mortgage rates are averaging 6.66, caught my attention. Unlike rumors, like the one going around about a Texas IMB buying California IMB, hard, provable numbers are hard to argue with… Like the hundreds of thousands of people every month turning 62. Setting up a reverse division at your company isn’t as difficult, say, parachuting beavers into Idaho. Why should lenders have a reverse mortgage division? Housing wealth among homeowners aged 62 and older rose in Q1 2026 to a record $14.92 trillion, according to the
31st July, 26
Japan Currency Intervention, Oil, and Data Causing Some Selling
Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) and central bank (BOJ) are a bit more closely linked than Treasury and the Fed. For example, the MOF can instruct the BOJ to sell a bunch of securities to pop up the value of domestic currency. They did this in relatively grand fashion yesterday, but the selling didn't appear to involve Treasuries (as it sometimes does). Now in today's overnight session, there was another Yen-specific spike and this time, it lines up with the start of selling pressure in Treasuries. It's not extreme, and it correlated with Iran headlines causing oil prices to rise. If
Japan Currency Intervention, Oil, and Data Causing Some Selling
Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) and central bank (BOJ) are a bit more closely linked than Treasury and the Fed. For example, the MOF can instruct the BOJ to sell a bunch of securities to pop up the value of domestic currency. They did this in relatively grand fashion yesterday, but the selling didn't appear to involve Treasuries (as it sometimes does). Now in today's overnight session, there was another Yen-specific spike and this time, it lines up with the start of selling pressure in Treasuries. It's not extreme, and it correlated with Iran headlines causing oil prices to rise. If
30th July, 26
Bullets Dodged
Bullets Dodged We've seen our fair share of bonds punishing the market on occasions where bond traders were forced to worry about a significant change in a fiscal or monetary regime (or the absence of a desired change). Wednesday's reaction to the Fed ran the risk of setting the stage for similar momentum. While it did technically continue, it was far less forceful on Thursday. Additionally, the evidence was limited to curve steepening rather than outright losses (apart from 30yr bonds). In short, bonds fired a warning shot, but they're not going to obsess about it unless given additional
Bullets Dodged
Bullets Dodged We've seen our fair share of bonds punishing the market on occasions where bond traders were forced to worry about a significant change in a fiscal or monetary regime (or the absence of a desired change). Wednesday's reaction to the Fed ran the risk of setting the stage for similar momentum. While it did technically continue, it was far less forceful on Thursday. Additionally, the evidence was limited to curve steepening rather than outright losses (apart from 30yr bonds). In short, bonds fired a warning shot, but they're not going to obsess about it unless given additional
30th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower
It's not at all uncommon for mortgage rates to experience microscopic movement in either direction on any given day. In fact, it's probably the most common eventuality over time. In that sense, today was unremarkable with the average lender moving just a hair lower versus yesterday's latest levels. But in another sense, it's very good news. After yesterday's market reaction to the Fed press conference, there was a risk that bonds (which dictate rates) would continue their protest. The absence of additional drama suggests the reaction was "one and done." This morning's economic data had a
Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower
It's not at all uncommon for mortgage rates to experience microscopic movement in either direction on any given day. In fact, it's probably the most common eventuality over time. In that sense, today was unremarkable with the average lender moving just a hair lower versus yesterday's latest levels. But in another sense, it's very good news. After yesterday's market reaction to the Fed press conference, there was a risk that bonds (which dictate rates) would continue their protest. The absence of additional drama suggests the reaction was "one and done." This morning's economic data had a
30th July, 26
UAD 3.6, Reverse, AI, Co-Issue Products; Freddie Clocks in at $3.8 Billion; Morgan Stanley Did What in Mortgages?
I was recently doing some bike riding in the Napa Valley and spent some time speaking with a wine maker. She told me that because of the increase in temperatures, growers are buying land to the south and planting vineyards there, nearer the San Francisco Bay where it is cooler. Their livelihood is at stake “up Valley.” In addition, this year’s harvest is a full month earlier than historical harvests as the grapes ripened quickly. Other fruit growers are seeing the same thing: products are ripening earlier in the year. One state over, Phoenix’s high temperatures this weekend will be
UAD 3.6, Reverse, AI, Co-Issue Products; Freddie Clocks in at $3.8 Billion; Morgan Stanley Did What in Mortgages?
I was recently doing some bike riding in the Napa Valley and spent some time speaking with a wine maker. She told me that because of the increase in temperatures, growers are buying land to the south and planting vineyards there, nearer the San Francisco Bay where it is cooler. Their livelihood is at stake “up Valley.” In addition, this year’s harvest is a full month earlier than historical harvests as the grapes ripened quickly. Other fruit growers are seeing the same thing: products are ripening earlier in the year. One state over, Phoenix’s high temperatures this weekend will be
30th July, 26
Sideways Start is a Victory
This morning could have been much worse. The bond market could have continued spiraling on fear that it is now responsible for conducting monetary policy--something that sounds weird when you first read it, but is actually central to the discussion based on Warsh's comments in yesterday's press conference. In short, bonds tightened policy yesterday and acknowledged that the Fed did not (2yr lower, 10/30yr much higher). That theme is continuing this morning, but thankfully is only playing out in curve trading as 30yr bonds are flat while 2yr yields continue dropping. Ho-hum econ data helped by
Sideways Start is a Victory
This morning could have been much worse. The bond market could have continued spiraling on fear that it is now responsible for conducting monetary policy--something that sounds weird when you first read it, but is actually central to the discussion based on Warsh's comments in yesterday's press conference. In short, bonds tightened policy yesterday and acknowledged that the Fed did not (2yr lower, 10/30yr much higher). That theme is continuing this morning, but thankfully is only playing out in curve trading as 30yr bonds are flat while 2yr yields continue dropping. Ho-hum econ data helped by
29th July, 26
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Fed Reaction?
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Fed Reaction? Tough day for the casual observer to try to make sense of what happened. There's even some disagreement between the not-so-casual observers. Let's focus on what we can know for sure. The Fed didn't hike. The market was pricing a 1 in 3 chance of a hike, so the shortest end of the curve logically rallied on that. Longer term rates rallied a bit too, at first. No surprises as of 2:30pm. Warsh's prepared remarks weren't significant, and the rally remained intact. Things began to change rapidly when he suggested looking beyond PCE to a broader set
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Fed Reaction?
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Fed Reaction? Tough day for the casual observer to try to make sense of what happened. There's even some disagreement between the not-so-casual observers. Let's focus on what we can know for sure. The Fed didn't hike. The market was pricing a 1 in 3 chance of a hike, so the shortest end of the curve logically rallied on that. Longer term rates rallied a bit too, at first. No surprises as of 2:30pm. Warsh's prepared remarks weren't significant, and the rally remained intact. Things began to change rapidly when he suggested looking beyond PCE to a broader set
29th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Despite No Fed Rate Hike
Heading into today's Fed announcement, futures markets indicated roughly a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed would hike rates. They did not. This seems like it should have been good news for rates, but there's a catch. Rates exist on a spectrum defined by "duration." Specifically, there are different rates for different lengths of loans. The Fed Funds Rate is relevant to loans of the shortest duration (mostly overnight lending between the largest financial institutions). Mortgage rates, meanwhile, are more closely linked to longer term loans--bonds with durations that average 5-7 years. When a
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Despite No Fed Rate Hike
Heading into today's Fed announcement, futures markets indicated roughly a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed would hike rates. They did not. This seems like it should have been good news for rates, but there's a catch. Rates exist on a spectrum defined by "duration." Specifically, there are different rates for different lengths of loans. The Fed Funds Rate is relevant to loans of the shortest duration (mostly overnight lending between the largest financial institutions). Mortgage rates, meanwhile, are more closely linked to longer term loans--bonds with durations that average 5-7 years. When a
29th July, 26
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 9 – 0 3 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 9 – 0 3 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and
29th July, 26
Hedging, Credit, Anti-Fraud Tools; STRATMOR on Borrower Satisfaction; Fannie's $4 Billion Earnings Quarter
“Technology is dominated by two types of people: Those who understand what they do not manage, and those who manage what they do not understand.” Even if you’re a 90-year-old LO using a rotary phone, the rest of your company, and your borrowers, use technology and new products and need to stay up on them. FICO Score 10T, adoption, for example, has surpassed 70 mortgage lenders. There’s still time to participate in STRATMOR Group’s first module of its 2026 Technology Insight® Study (TIS), the LOS Perception Survey. The survey explores how lenders view today's loan origination systems
Hedging, Credit, Anti-Fraud Tools; STRATMOR on Borrower Satisfaction; Fannie's $4 Billion Earnings Quarter
“Technology is dominated by two types of people: Those who understand what they do not manage, and those who manage what they do not understand.” Even if you’re a 90-year-old LO using a rotary phone, the rest of your company, and your borrowers, use technology and new products and need to stay up on them. FICO Score 10T, adoption, for example, has surpassed 70 mortgage lenders. There’s still time to participate in STRATMOR Group’s first module of its 2026 Technology Insight® Study (TIS), the LOS Perception Survey. The survey explores how lenders view today's loan origination systems