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20th August, 26
Tune Out The Noise
Tune Out The Noise Yesterday's Treasury buyback announcement and today's comments from Bessent make for good drama in financial news, but the actual market impact had run its course within minutes of the initial announcement and we haven't seen solid evidence that the market has continued to care. Rather, the ample evidence is that an overnight oil price spike pushed bond yields higher. Peaks and valleys aligned perfectly. Elevated corporate issuance lingers constantly in the background causing broad elevation in bonds, but not much of an intraday impulse (even after an afternoon announcement
Tune Out The Noise
Tune Out The Noise Yesterday's Treasury buyback announcement and today's comments from Bessent make for good drama in financial news, but the actual market impact had run its course within minutes of the initial announcement and we haven't seen solid evidence that the market has continued to care. Rather, the ample evidence is that an overnight oil price spike pushed bond yields higher. Peaks and valleys aligned perfectly. Elevated corporate issuance lingers constantly in the background causing broad elevation in bonds, but not much of an intraday impulse (even after an afternoon announcement
20th August, 26
Highest Mortgage Rates in Just Over a Week
While Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey may show rates moving slightly lower this week, today's rates are actually higher than they were at the same time last week (6.76% vs 6.69%). Financial news continued to focus on yesterday's announcement of Treasury buybacks after Secretary Bessent spoke on CNBC this morning, but today's bump in rates had more to do with fuel prices. Treasury yields serve as an almost perfect proxy for intraday rate movement with 10yr yields often seen as the most common at-a-glance benchmark for mortgage rate movement (i.e. they tend to move in the same
Highest Mortgage Rates in Just Over a Week
While Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey may show rates moving slightly lower this week, today's rates are actually higher than they were at the same time last week (6.76% vs 6.69%). Financial news continued to focus on yesterday's announcement of Treasury buybacks after Secretary Bessent spoke on CNBC this morning, but today's bump in rates had more to do with fuel prices. Treasury yields serve as an almost perfect proxy for intraday rate movement with 10yr yields often seen as the most common at-a-glance benchmark for mortgage rate movement (i.e. they tend to move in the same
20th August, 26
Hedging, Verification, Non-QM, QC, PPE Products; U.S. Government to Buy More Securities
Lender and Broker Software, Products, and Services Automating individual tasks isn't the same as transforming mortgage operations. Real efficiency comes from connecting people, policies, systems, and decisions across the entire loan lifecycle. JazzX AI creates a governed intelligence layer that orchestrates work from application through post-close, without replacing your LOS. See how leading lenders are reducing cost per loan and increasing throughput. Book a demo with our team to see JazzX in action. The industry’s most valuable conversations are coming to you. Is your team using a PPE...
Hedging, Verification, Non-QM, QC, PPE Products; U.S. Government to Buy More Securities
Lender and Broker Software, Products, and Services Automating individual tasks isn't the same as transforming mortgage operations. Real efficiency comes from connecting people, policies, systems, and decisions across the entire loan lifecycle. JazzX AI creates a governed intelligence layer that orchestrates work from application through post-close, without replacing your LOS. See how leading lenders are reducing cost per loan and increasing throughput. Book a demo with our team to see JazzX in action. The industry’s most valuable conversations are coming to you. Is your team using a PPE...
20th August, 26
Back on The Pain Wagon (Which Runs on Oil)
The correlation between bonds and fuel prices was already creeping back into the picture yesterday. After the Treasury buyback announcement got all of the morning's attention, fuel prices guided the ebbs and flows in the second half of the day. Now today, we're fully back to regularly scheduled programming and there are only so many shows
Back on The Pain Wagon (Which Runs on Oil)
The correlation between bonds and fuel prices was already creeping back into the picture yesterday. After the Treasury buyback announcement got all of the morning's attention, fuel prices guided the ebbs and flows in the second half of the day. Now today, we're fully back to regularly scheduled programming and there are only so many shows
19th August, 26
AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil
AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil To be clear, most of today's rally is attributable to the news on the Treasury buyback program discussed in the morning commentary. Today's consumer rate commentary also has a useful set of bullet points to recap the changes. Ultimately, the buyback news simply meant that the shortest-term debt suffered at the expense of longer-term debt. To put this in perspective, consider that 30yr yields are almost 10bps lower than they were at the open whereas 2yr yields are actually a few bps higher. If today's news was truly akin to QE or any sort of
AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil
AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil To be clear, most of today's rally is attributable to the news on the Treasury buyback program discussed in the morning commentary. Today's consumer rate commentary also has a useful set of bullet points to recap the changes. Ultimately, the buyback news simply meant that the shortest-term debt suffered at the expense of longer-term debt. To put this in perspective, consider that 30yr yields are almost 10bps lower than they were at the open whereas 2yr yields are actually a few bps higher. If today's news was truly akin to QE or any sort of
19th August, 26
Why Mortgage Rates Didn't Fall as Much as 30yr Bonds Today
Mortgage rates dropped on Wednesday due to a combination of lower oil prices and the announcement of changes to Treasury's bond buyback program. The oil price angle is easy to understand. Throughout the war, higher fuel prices have caused volatility in inflation expectations and inflation is a critical consideration for bonds/rates. The Treasury buyback news is more complex and highly oversimplified by the average piece of media coverage. Here are the details that matter: The original buyback program began in 2024 under the Biden admin when Yellen was the Treasury secretary It is not
Why Mortgage Rates Didn't Fall as Much as 30yr Bonds Today
Mortgage rates dropped on Wednesday due to a combination of lower oil prices and the announcement of changes to Treasury's bond buyback program. The oil price angle is easy to understand. Throughout the war, higher fuel prices have caused volatility in inflation expectations and inflation is a critical consideration for bonds/rates. The Treasury buyback news is more complex and highly oversimplified by the average piece of media coverage. Here are the details that matter: The original buyback program began in 2024 under the Biden admin when Yellen was the Treasury secretary It is not
19th August, 26
Hedging, HELOC, Compliance Tools; IMB Costs Still $11k Per Loan; Weak Housing Numbers
Everyone is racing to bolt AI onto their lending process. QAwerk's Konstantin Klyagin says most of them are skipping the boring part that actually matters, and it's going to catch up with them. His argument: an AI agent that can't explain its own decisions isn't a shortcut; it's a liability waiting for a regulator to find it. Read on for what separates the lenders who'll survive scrutiny from those who won't. I remember when the cost to produce a loan was less than $11,000, where it is now. (More detail below.) I remember when LOs weren’t insurance counselors, trying to help clients with
Hedging, HELOC, Compliance Tools; IMB Costs Still $11k Per Loan; Weak Housing Numbers
Everyone is racing to bolt AI onto their lending process. QAwerk's Konstantin Klyagin says most of them are skipping the boring part that actually matters, and it's going to catch up with them. His argument: an AI agent that can't explain its own decisions isn't a shortcut; it's a liability waiting for a regulator to find it. Read on for what separates the lenders who'll survive scrutiny from those who won't. I remember when the cost to produce a loan was less than $11,000, where it is now. (More detail below.) I remember when LOs weren’t insurance counselors, trying to help clients with
19th August, 26
Bonds Rally After Treasury Buyback Announcement (NOT QE)
At 8:30am, Treasury announced it would double the size of the existing buyback program from $2 to $4 billion for 10-30yr maturities. This sounds like a big deal, but it's only really a medium deal. It's not QE and it never was. Treasury has been conducting buyback operations for more than 2 years and the primary purpose is to support LIQUIDITY in the bond market rather than to influence yield levels. Nonetheless, the bond market can't help but experience some impact to yield when these things are announced/changed simply because it affects the composition of buying demand. Specifically, if
Bonds Rally After Treasury Buyback Announcement (NOT QE)
At 8:30am, Treasury announced it would double the size of the existing buyback program from $2 to $4 billion for 10-30yr maturities. This sounds like a big deal, but it's only really a medium deal. It's not QE and it never was. Treasury has been conducting buyback operations for more than 2 years and the primary purpose is to support LIQUIDITY in the bond market rather than to influence yield levels. Nonetheless, the bond market can't help but experience some impact to yield when these things are announced/changed simply because it affects the composition of buying demand. Specifically, if
18th August, 26
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green Tuesday offered remarkably of interest or consequence for the bond market. The most notable development was the brief visit to 4.75% in 10yr yields followed by the emergence of the quintessential "dip buyer" (i.e. "hey look... yields are high enough again that I think I'm going to buy some Treasuries"). The post-9:30am timing adds emphasis to that mentality among the retail investor community. Apart from that, there were no obvious motivations or relevant data points. Wednesday suffers a similar absence of scheduled events with the only exception
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green Tuesday offered remarkably of interest or consequence for the bond market. The most notable development was the brief visit to 4.75% in 10yr yields followed by the emergence of the quintessential "dip buyer" (i.e. "hey look... yields are high enough again that I think I'm going to buy some Treasuries"). The post-9:30am timing adds emphasis to that mentality among the retail investor community. Apart from that, there were no obvious motivations or relevant data points. Wednesday suffers a similar absence of scheduled events with the only exception
18th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Continue Higher Despite Bond Market Improvement
Mortgage rates rose for the third straight day on Tuesday with the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moving up a modest 0.02% to 6.75%. Notably, the bond market was actually in slightly better shape compared to yesterday--something that would normally be good news for rates. So what's the catch? As is often the case when bonds and mortgages disagree, the x factor is timing. Mortgage lenders prefer to release rates once per day (usually around 10am ET) and they only change rates if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move in either direction. Bonds lost ground yesterday,
Mortgage Rates Continue Higher Despite Bond Market Improvement
Mortgage rates rose for the third straight day on Tuesday with the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moving up a modest 0.02% to 6.75%. Notably, the bond market was actually in slightly better shape compared to yesterday--something that would normally be good news for rates. So what's the catch? As is often the case when bonds and mortgages disagree, the x factor is timing. Mortgage lenders prefer to release rates once per day (usually around 10am ET) and they only change rates if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move in either direction. Bonds lost ground yesterday,