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25th February, 26
In-Range PM Weakness
In-Range PM Weakness Viewed under a microscope, it may have seemed like today was a relatively volatile session for the bond market. Weaker opening levels in Treasuries gave way to a mid-day rally that nearly got rates back to unchanged levels. But the afternoon saw steady selling that took bonds to their weakest levels of the session. In the bigger picture, this was a non-event as it leaves trading levels well within the prevailing range. Additionally, there were no compelling justifications for the move unless we want to continue to force the narrative of higher stocks prices leading
In-Range PM Weakness
In-Range PM Weakness Viewed under a microscope, it may have seemed like today was a relatively volatile session for the bond market. Weaker opening levels in Treasuries gave way to a mid-day rally that nearly got rates back to unchanged levels. But the afternoon saw steady selling that took bonds to their weakest levels of the session. In the bigger picture, this was a non-event as it leaves trading levels well within the prevailing range. Additionally, there were no compelling justifications for the move unless we want to continue to force the narrative of higher stocks prices leading
25th February, 26
Mortgage Rates Mostly Holding Long-Term Lows
It may not be as glamorous as being able to say mortgage rates are "in the 5s," but at 6.00%, today's MND rate index is a mere 0.01% higher than yesterday's multi-year low. For all practical purposes, this means the average borrower will see almost exactly the same rates as yesterday. In many cases, the quotes will be exactly the same. There were no big ticket market movers on the econ calendar and no major headlines that caused any appreciable volatility in the bond market (bonds dictate mortgage rates). In general, the entire week is very quiet in terms of those
Mortgage Rates Mostly Holding Long-Term Lows
It may not be as glamorous as being able to say mortgage rates are "in the 5s," but at 6.00%, today's MND rate index is a mere 0.01% higher than yesterday's multi-year low. For all practical purposes, this means the average borrower will see almost exactly the same rates as yesterday. In many cases, the quotes will be exactly the same. There were no big ticket market movers on the econ calendar and no major headlines that caused any appreciable volatility in the bond market (bonds dictate mortgage rates). In general, the entire week is very quiet in terms of those
25th February, 26
Non-QM, QC, Cash Flow Worksheet, Virtual Economist, Home Equity Closing Products; FHA/VA News
It is no secret that Congress and regulators have trouble keeping up with technology. But is an AI “conversation” with a borrower any different than a questionnaire given to that same borrower? Will the line be drawn at RESPA items? Can regulators audit transcripts of AI “conversations” without court orders? (One way to have the “inside scoop” on issues like this and others is to register for MBA’s National Advocacy Conference (NAC) this April. The early bird special ends Monday, March 2. It’s the industry’s largest advocacy event and the most effective way to represent your
Non-QM, QC, Cash Flow Worksheet, Virtual Economist, Home Equity Closing Products; FHA/VA News
It is no secret that Congress and regulators have trouble keeping up with technology. But is an AI “conversation” with a borrower any different than a questionnaire given to that same borrower? Will the line be drawn at RESPA items? Can regulators audit transcripts of AI “conversations” without court orders? (One way to have the “inside scoop” on issues like this and others is to register for MBA’s National Advocacy Conference (NAC) this April. The early bird special ends Monday, March 2. It’s the industry’s largest advocacy event and the most effective way to represent your
25th February, 26
Re-Settling Into Same Narrow Range Amid Lack of Data
Some days, there's a lot to say about what's going on in the bond market. Other days are like today. Analysts have to lean on themes like trading ranges, technicals, and the asset allocation trade (buy stocks / sell bonds, and vice versa). Incidentally, those default explanations continue to hold some water with 10yr yields once again hesitant to push below 4.0% this week and a slow recover in stocks possibly pulling yields a bit higher. We can also consider a bit of concessionary trading ahead of the 5yr Treasury auction (accounts abstaining from buying now because they have to buy
Re-Settling Into Same Narrow Range Amid Lack of Data
Some days, there's a lot to say about what's going on in the bond market. Other days are like today. Analysts have to lean on themes like trading ranges, technicals, and the asset allocation trade (buy stocks / sell bonds, and vice versa). Incidentally, those default explanations continue to hold some water with 10yr yields once again hesitant to push below 4.0% this week and a slow recover in stocks possibly pulling yields a bit higher. We can also consider a bit of concessionary trading ahead of the 5yr Treasury auction (accounts abstaining from buying now because they have to buy
24th February, 26
Calmly Holding in Super Strong Territory
Calmly Holding in Super Strong Territory MBS may not be quite as high as they were yesterday, but in the bigger picture, today's levels are right in line with the best we've seen in more than 3 years. More importantly, mortgage rates are verifiably at the best levels in more than 3 years. There was no major volatility or any remarkable econ data. Tomorrow's calendar is similarly quiet. Stock/bond correlations broke down in the afternoon, but as bonds search for any sources of guidance, that correlation could certainly return if stocks are making bigger moves. Econ Data / Events ADP Weekly
Calmly Holding in Super Strong Territory
Calmly Holding in Super Strong Territory MBS may not be quite as high as they were yesterday, but in the bigger picture, today's levels are right in line with the best we've seen in more than 3 years. More importantly, mortgage rates are verifiably at the best levels in more than 3 years. There was no major volatility or any remarkable econ data. Tomorrow's calendar is similarly quiet. Stock/bond correlations broke down in the afternoon, but as bonds search for any sources of guidance, that correlation could certainly return if stocks are making bigger moves. Econ Data / Events ADP Weekly
24th February, 26
Mortgage Rates Match Multi-Year Low For 2nd Straight Day
The average top-tier mortgage rates made it back to 5.99% yesterday for the first time since January 9th and only the second time in more than 3 years. With rates holding perfectly steady today, this is the 3rd day that matches that multi-year low. In one important way, the past 2 days represent a bigger victory for rates. Back on January 9th, the MND rate index only hit 5.99 for a few hours before bouncing. The next month and a half saw the average well into the low 6s. Contrast that to the current case where we've approached 5.99% more slowly and, thus far, are holding it much more steadily
Mortgage Rates Match Multi-Year Low For 2nd Straight Day
The average top-tier mortgage rates made it back to 5.99% yesterday for the first time since January 9th and only the second time in more than 3 years. With rates holding perfectly steady today, this is the 3rd day that matches that multi-year low. In one important way, the past 2 days represent a bigger victory for rates. Back on January 9th, the MND rate index only hit 5.99 for a few hours before bouncing. The next month and a half saw the average well into the low 6s. Contrast that to the current case where we've approached 5.99% more slowly and, thus far, are holding it much more steadily
24th February, 26
Non-QM Pricing, Documentation, eSignature, AI Tools; Thoughts on New Starting Points for Borrowers
At the Optimal Blue Summit going on now, sessions range from AI to loan officer tools to market strategy, product unveilings built to transform pricing, trading, and profitability. Will AI help? A study published this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that among 6,000 CEOs, chief financial officers, and other executives from firms who responded to various business outlook surveys in the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Australia, the vast majority see little impact from AI on their operations. Speaking of which, today’s Mortgages With Millennials at 1PM ET, sponsored by
Non-QM Pricing, Documentation, eSignature, AI Tools; Thoughts on New Starting Points for Borrowers
At the Optimal Blue Summit going on now, sessions range from AI to loan officer tools to market strategy, product unveilings built to transform pricing, trading, and profitability. Will AI help? A study published this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that among 6,000 CEOs, chief financial officers, and other executives from firms who responded to various business outlook surveys in the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Australia, the vast majority see little impact from AI on their operations. Speaking of which, today’s Mortgages With Millennials at 1PM ET, sponsored by
24th February, 26
Slower Start, More Sideways. Stock Lever in Play
Volume and volatility is lower this morning compared to yesterday, but the same theme of risk aversion looks to be in play, probably. Why "probably?" Because the theme in question (risk aversion, or what we sometimes refer to as the "stock lever") oftentimes makes it hard to distinguish between correlation and causality. All we know so far today is that both stocks and bond yields are sightly higher from yesterday's lows and have been generally sideways so far today. The econ calendar remains light in terms of importance, despite plenty of line items
Slower Start, More Sideways. Stock Lever in Play
Volume and volatility is lower this morning compared to yesterday, but the same theme of risk aversion looks to be in play, probably. Why "probably?" Because the theme in question (risk aversion, or what we sometimes refer to as the "stock lever") oftentimes makes it hard to distinguish between correlation and causality. All we know so far today is that both stocks and bond yields are sightly higher from yesterday's lows and have been generally sideways so far today. The econ calendar remains light in terms of importance, despite plenty of line items
23rd February, 26
General Risk Aversion Trade Helping Bonds
General Risk Aversion Trade Helping Bonds Bonds began the day in just barely stronger territory but continued to improve throughout. The first rally followed the 8:20am CME open--a common time of day to see a bit of extra momentum and volume. The next leg of the rally played out in the 10am hour which is when stocks did all of their selling for the day. That dynamic lends itself to the conclusion that the broader market is trading in a "risk-off" pattern amid global trade uncertainty. Econ Data / Events Factory Orders -0.7 vs -0.5 f'cast, 2.7 prev Market Movement Recap 09:52 AM Modestly
General Risk Aversion Trade Helping Bonds
General Risk Aversion Trade Helping Bonds Bonds began the day in just barely stronger territory but continued to improve throughout. The first rally followed the 8:20am CME open--a common time of day to see a bit of extra momentum and volume. The next leg of the rally played out in the 10am hour which is when stocks did all of their selling for the day. That dynamic lends itself to the conclusion that the broader market is trading in a "risk-off" pattern amid global trade uncertainty. Econ Data / Events Factory Orders -0.7 vs -0.5 f'cast, 2.7 prev Market Movement Recap 09:52 AM Modestly
23rd February, 26
Mortgage Rates Dip Back Into The 5's
This coverage is coming out earlier than normal due to a more interesting headline than normal. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell back to 5.99% today, matching the levels seen only briefly back on January 9th, 2026 when the Fannie/Freddie bond buying plans were announced. Much like the last time, there's always a risk that something happens to prompt a bond market reversal today. If that happens, mortgage lenders could raise rates in the middle of the day. But unlike last time, mortgage rates have eased down to current levels in a much more gradual and--dare we say--sustainable
Mortgage Rates Dip Back Into The 5's
This coverage is coming out earlier than normal due to a more interesting headline than normal. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell back to 5.99% today, matching the levels seen only briefly back on January 9th, 2026 when the Fannie/Freddie bond buying plans were announced. Much like the last time, there's always a risk that something happens to prompt a bond market reversal today. If that happens, mortgage lenders could raise rates in the middle of the day. But unlike last time, mortgage rates have eased down to current levels in a much more gradual and--dare we say--sustainable