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3rd August, 26
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain Monday was "nice." Bonds rallied more than a little bit and held those gains in an exceptionally flat manner all day. But there are caveats. Apart from last Friday, today's yields matched the long-term highs seen on July 23rd. Or on a more timely note, the rally didn't fully erase Friday's weakness. Additionally, strength was not a given. It required a fairly substantial drop in oil prices stepping from a fresh round Iran war optimism. This as been a fickle friend to say the least, though we'll never turn down the visit. Ample past precedent
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain Monday was "nice." Bonds rallied more than a little bit and held those gains in an exceptionally flat manner all day. But there are caveats. Apart from last Friday, today's yields matched the long-term highs seen on July 23rd. Or on a more timely note, the rally didn't fully erase Friday's weakness. Additionally, strength was not a given. It required a fairly substantial drop in oil prices stepping from a fresh round Iran war optimism. This as been a fickle friend to say the least, though we'll never turn down the visit. Ample past precedent
3rd August, 26
Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Despite Bond Market Improvement
Mortgage rates had a tough day on Friday, largely in response to bond market volatility surrounding heavy forex trading as a part of US/Japan efforts to prop up Japanese currency (not a common source of inspiration for rates). Higher oil prices didn't help. As we begin the new week, de-escalation in the Iran war pushed oil prices much lower. As has been the case frequently during the war, bond yields followed oil prices in relative lock-step. While it's almost universally true that lower bond yields beget lower mortgage rates, there are occasionally days where the correlation isn't
Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Despite Bond Market Improvement
Mortgage rates had a tough day on Friday, largely in response to bond market volatility surrounding heavy forex trading as a part of US/Japan efforts to prop up Japanese currency (not a common source of inspiration for rates). Higher oil prices didn't help. As we begin the new week, de-escalation in the Iran war pushed oil prices much lower. As has been the case frequently during the war, bond yields followed oil prices in relative lock-step. While it's almost universally true that lower bond yields beget lower mortgage rates, there are occasionally days where the correlation isn't
3rd August, 26
Webinars, LOS, Title, eNote, Processing Tools; NAR, Owner Wealth, and Dropped Coverage
Non-QM investors are “licking their chops” by using the information that the FHFA, through Freddie and Fannie, is requiring a more thorough lender assessment before approving condo loans beginning today. Non-QM is not. Who is going to say that information isn’t important? Lenders and the markets like knowing what the U.S. Federal Reserve is up to… Now Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is considering reducing the frequency of the central bank's scheduled policy meetings, the New York Times reported Friday. How much would you pay for news in advance? $100k per month? Would you ever
Webinars, LOS, Title, eNote, Processing Tools; NAR, Owner Wealth, and Dropped Coverage
Non-QM investors are “licking their chops” by using the information that the FHFA, through Freddie and Fannie, is requiring a more thorough lender assessment before approving condo loans beginning today. Non-QM is not. Who is going to say that information isn’t important? Lenders and the markets like knowing what the U.S. Federal Reserve is up to… Now Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is considering reducing the frequency of the central bank's scheduled policy meetings, the New York Times reported Friday. How much would you pay for news in advance? $100k per month? Would you ever
3rd August, 26
Stronger Start on Iran News, Stronger Data Taken in Stride
Bonds opened the trading session in much stronger territory, following the drop in oil prices associated with another round of de-escalation hopes in the Iran war. The root cause was the cancellation of planned air strikes as well as comments that suggested a reopening of negotiations. As has been the case, markets don't really care if there's much substance or probability. It gets traded moderately and instantly simply due to possibility. Bonds were at their best levels just before 8am and had lost a bit of the rally by 10am. At that point, stronger ISM Services data momentarily threatened to
Stronger Start on Iran News, Stronger Data Taken in Stride
Bonds opened the trading session in much stronger territory, following the drop in oil prices associated with another round of de-escalation hopes in the Iran war. The root cause was the cancellation of planned air strikes as well as comments that suggested a reopening of negotiations. As has been the case, markets don't really care if there's much substance or probability. It gets traded moderately and instantly simply due to possibility. Bonds were at their best levels just before 8am and had lost a bit of the rally by 10am. At that point, stronger ISM Services data momentarily threatened to
31st July, 26
Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe
Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe Friday was very much NOT on the beaten path of typical bond market considerations with most of the selling arguably stemming from Japanese currency intervention. We've seen similar episodes in the past, but today's installment came with a twist. In addition to Japan confirming it was selling foreign bonds to prop up Yen values, the U.S. Treasury also apparently got involved. It warned dealers that it could make trades to support the Yen. No one but those involved knows if that means anything beyond using the ESF to execute currency trades, but the
Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe
Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe Friday was very much NOT on the beaten path of typical bond market considerations with most of the selling arguably stemming from Japanese currency intervention. We've seen similar episodes in the past, but today's installment came with a twist. In addition to Japan confirming it was selling foreign bonds to prop up Yen values, the U.S. Treasury also apparently got involved. It warned dealers that it could make trades to support the Yen. No one but those involved knows if that means anything beyond using the ESF to execute currency trades, but the
31st July, 26
Mortgage Rates Back Near Long-Term Highs
To be fair, mortgage rates haven't been far from their long-term highs in over a week, but today's 30yr fixed index level of 6.83% is functionally equivalent to the actual long-term high of 6.85% seen on July 23rd. Higher rates are driven by weakness in the bond market. The latter can happen for many reasons. Sometimes those reasons are as simple as an economic report showing stronger job growth or higher inflation. Other times, the reasons are more esoteric. Today's bond market weakness may have been modestly influenced by this morning's Employment Cost Index, but the bigger issue
Mortgage Rates Back Near Long-Term Highs
To be fair, mortgage rates haven't been far from their long-term highs in over a week, but today's 30yr fixed index level of 6.83% is functionally equivalent to the actual long-term high of 6.85% seen on July 23rd. Higher rates are driven by weakness in the bond market. The latter can happen for many reasons. Sometimes those reasons are as simple as an economic report showing stronger job growth or higher inflation. Other times, the reasons are more esoteric. Today's bond market weakness may have been modestly influenced by this morning's Employment Cost Index, but the bigger issue
31st July, 26
Regional Divide Persists as Home Price Growth Edges Higher in May
Home price appreciation remained modest in May, according to data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices . Although both reports showed annual price growth improving slightly from April, appreciation continued to trail inflation, underscoring a housing market where elevated mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and uneven regional performance continue to limit broader price gains. FHFA reported that U.S. house prices increased 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, reversing April's 0.1% decline. On an annual basis, home prices were 2.2% higher than a
Regional Divide Persists as Home Price Growth Edges Higher in May
Home price appreciation remained modest in May, according to data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices . Although both reports showed annual price growth improving slightly from April, appreciation continued to trail inflation, underscoring a housing market where elevated mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and uneven regional performance continue to limit broader price gains. FHFA reported that U.S. house prices increased 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, reversing April's 0.1% decline. On an annual basis, home prices were 2.2% higher than a
31st July, 26
Mortgage Applications Fall 6.4% as Rates Continue Upward March
Mortgage application activity pulled back last week as higher borrowing costs weighed on both home purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 6.4% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 24. Purchase applications decreased 4% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis but remained 3% higher than the same week one year ago. While housing inventory has improved in some markets, elevated mortgage rates continue to challenge affordability for many prospective buyers. Refinance activity weakened
Mortgage Applications Fall 6.4% as Rates Continue Upward March
Mortgage application activity pulled back last week as higher borrowing costs weighed on both home purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 6.4% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 24. Purchase applications decreased 4% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis but remained 3% higher than the same week one year ago. While housing inventory has improved in some markets, elevated mortgage rates continue to challenge affordability for many prospective buyers. Refinance activity weakened
31st July, 26
Verification, CRA Tracking, State-Level Tax and MGIC Webinars, Non-Agency Product Developments
I am no numerologist, but Freddie Mac’s announcement yesterday, that 30-year mortgage rates are averaging 6.66, caught my attention. Unlike rumors, like the one going around about a Texas IMB buying California IMB, hard, provable numbers are hard to argue with… Like the hundreds of thousands of people every month turning 62. Setting up a reverse division at your company isn’t as difficult, say, parachuting beavers into Idaho. Why should lenders have a reverse mortgage division? Housing wealth among homeowners aged 62 and older rose in Q1 2026 to a record $14.92 trillion, according to the
Verification, CRA Tracking, State-Level Tax and MGIC Webinars, Non-Agency Product Developments
I am no numerologist, but Freddie Mac’s announcement yesterday, that 30-year mortgage rates are averaging 6.66, caught my attention. Unlike rumors, like the one going around about a Texas IMB buying California IMB, hard, provable numbers are hard to argue with… Like the hundreds of thousands of people every month turning 62. Setting up a reverse division at your company isn’t as difficult, say, parachuting beavers into Idaho. Why should lenders have a reverse mortgage division? Housing wealth among homeowners aged 62 and older rose in Q1 2026 to a record $14.92 trillion, according to the
31st July, 26
Japan Currency Intervention, Oil, and Data Causing Some Selling
Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) and central bank (BOJ) are a bit more closely linked than Treasury and the Fed. For example, the MOF can instruct the BOJ to sell a bunch of securities to pop up the value of domestic currency. They did this in relatively grand fashion yesterday, but the selling didn't appear to involve Treasuries (as it sometimes does). Now in today's overnight session, there was another Yen-specific spike and this time, it lines up with the start of selling pressure in Treasuries. It's not extreme, and it correlated with Iran headlines causing oil prices to rise. If
Japan Currency Intervention, Oil, and Data Causing Some Selling
Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) and central bank (BOJ) are a bit more closely linked than Treasury and the Fed. For example, the MOF can instruct the BOJ to sell a bunch of securities to pop up the value of domestic currency. They did this in relatively grand fashion yesterday, but the selling didn't appear to involve Treasuries (as it sometimes does). Now in today's overnight session, there was another Yen-specific spike and this time, it lines up with the start of selling pressure in Treasuries. It's not extreme, and it correlated with Iran headlines causing oil prices to rise. If