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9th June, 26
Bonds End at Strongest Levels
Bonds End at Strongest Levels Unlike yesterday, which saw an uneventful open give way to intraday weakness, today's momentum was mostly friendly. Bonds avoided panicking in the morning hours. Mid-day war-related headlines made for some quick 2-way trading in the noon hour, but yields never went any higher than the AM highs. After sorting out that volatility, steady gain brought yields to the lowest levels of the day in the final hour of trading. For context, this is right on the highest edge of the short-term range seen in the week and a half leading up to the jobs report. Econ Data /
Bonds End at Strongest Levels
Bonds End at Strongest Levels Unlike yesterday, which saw an uneventful open give way to intraday weakness, today's momentum was mostly friendly. Bonds avoided panicking in the morning hours. Mid-day war-related headlines made for some quick 2-way trading in the noon hour, but yields never went any higher than the AM highs. After sorting out that volatility, steady gain brought yields to the lowest levels of the day in the final hour of trading. For context, this is right on the highest edge of the short-term range seen in the week and a half leading up to the jobs report. Econ Data /
9th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Steady
Mortgage rates put an end to the most recent spike that followed last Friday's jobs report. Most of the upward movement happened on Friday, but yesterday offered a modest aftershock. Those two days brought the top tier 30yr fixed rate up to 6.68 from 6.58 on Thursday. Today's average remained perfectly flat at 6.68%. War-related headlines had periodic impacts on both oil prices and the bond/rate market. The scariest moment of the day for rates followed a headline that Iran had shot down a U.S. helicopter. Trump posted that the U.S. must respond to that attack, but subsequent comments minimized
Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Steady
Mortgage rates put an end to the most recent spike that followed last Friday's jobs report. Most of the upward movement happened on Friday, but yesterday offered a modest aftershock. Those two days brought the top tier 30yr fixed rate up to 6.68 from 6.58 on Thursday. Today's average remained perfectly flat at 6.68%. War-related headlines had periodic impacts on both oil prices and the bond/rate market. The scariest moment of the day for rates followed a headline that Iran had shot down a U.S. helicopter. Trump posted that the U.S. must respond to that attack, but subsequent comments minimized
9th June, 26
Retention, Appraisal Repurchase Risk, Analytics, Lead Gen Tools; Better Rate vs. Better House?
“Rob, have you heard that retail and DTC lenders have stepped up their training and monitoring of loan officers?” Absolutely. The same granular examination that is applied to borrowers is being applied to LOs, and not only with credit checks and background searches. Originators are expensive, as are leads, and the analysis of LO performance is critical. How do you train LOs, and how are they overcoming objections? I recently attended an Insellerate event where Aithena was demonstrated: a real-time AI voice “call with a borrower” for training. It was impressive! (No, this is not a paid
Retention, Appraisal Repurchase Risk, Analytics, Lead Gen Tools; Better Rate vs. Better House?
“Rob, have you heard that retail and DTC lenders have stepped up their training and monitoring of loan officers?” Absolutely. The same granular examination that is applied to borrowers is being applied to LOs, and not only with credit checks and background searches. Originators are expensive, as are leads, and the analysis of LO performance is critical. How do you train LOs, and how are they overcoming objections? I recently attended an Insellerate event where Aithena was demonstrated: a real-time AI voice “call with a borrower” for training. It was impressive! (No, this is not a paid
9th June, 26
Another Decent Start, But Will it Last?
For the second day in a row , bonds are starting out in modestly stronger territory, but let's hope we don't repeat yesterday's performance. That left yields even higher at the close than they were on Friday afternoon. Today's overnight gains leave yields in similar territory to yesterday morning. One redeeming technical development is that yields were willing to move below yesterday's pivot point point at 4.543. This doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it's better than a sharp stick in the eye. With limited econ data, we wait for any relevant war-related developments and, secondarily,
Another Decent Start, But Will it Last?
For the second day in a row , bonds are starting out in modestly stronger territory, but let's hope we don't repeat yesterday's performance. That left yields even higher at the close than they were on Friday afternoon. Today's overnight gains leave yields in similar territory to yesterday morning. One redeeming technical development is that yields were willing to move below yesterday's pivot point point at 4.543. This doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it's better than a sharp stick in the eye. With limited econ data, we wait for any relevant war-related developments and, secondarily,
8th June, 26
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight session higher, but both moved to the lows of the day just after 9:30am. From then on, oil went broadly sideways while bonds sold off gradually. If oil had instead moved higher into the afternoon, we might not care about the bond market weakness. But as it stands, we have bond-specific defensiveness in the afternoon replacing the modicum of bond-specific bullishness we noted in the morning commentary. Not the end of the world, but not ideal. Market Movement Recap 09:13 AM Sideways to
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight session higher, but both moved to the lows of the day just after 9:30am. From then on, oil went broadly sideways while bonds sold off gradually. If oil had instead moved higher into the afternoon, we might not care about the bond market weakness. But as it stands, we have bond-specific defensiveness in the afternoon replacing the modicum of bond-specific bullishness we noted in the morning commentary. Not the end of the world, but not ideal. Market Movement Recap 09:13 AM Sideways to
8th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Just a Bit Higher After Last Week's Jump
The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0.02% of upward movement. Today's level of 6.68% is the 3rd highest of the past 9 months. Unlike Friday, there were no big-ticket economic reports driving volatility in rate markets. The only arguable cause and effect was seen earlier in the morning surrounding war-related headlines. These actually helped rates start the day lower than they otherwise would have. As the week continues, investors will remain tuned in to war-related developments as
Mortgage Rates Just a Bit Higher After Last Week's Jump
The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0.02% of upward movement. Today's level of 6.68% is the 3rd highest of the past 9 months. Unlike Friday, there were no big-ticket economic reports driving volatility in rate markets. The only arguable cause and effect was seen earlier in the morning surrounding war-related headlines. These actually helped rates start the day lower than they otherwise would have. As the week continues, investors will remain tuned in to war-related developments as
8th June, 26
Verification, Non-QM Corresp., AI/POS Products; Upcoming Webcasts; Non-Agency Product News
Remember when talk of a “re-IPO” of Freddie and Fannie dominated residential lending news? That has certainly quieted, Pulte’s attentions are diverted, and you can certainly buy stock in them now: share prices for both are down about 30 percent this year so maybe they’re a bargain. For those new to the biz, the FHFA oversees F&F, and the FHFA’s Director is Bill Pulte who is not without his critics and videos why. Meanwhile, in more constructive videos and interviews, housing affordability dominates the conversation, but Pennymac CEO David Spector argues the real solutions extend
Verification, Non-QM Corresp., AI/POS Products; Upcoming Webcasts; Non-Agency Product News
Remember when talk of a “re-IPO” of Freddie and Fannie dominated residential lending news? That has certainly quieted, Pulte’s attentions are diverted, and you can certainly buy stock in them now: share prices for both are down about 30 percent this year so maybe they’re a bargain. For those new to the biz, the FHFA oversees F&F, and the FHFA’s Director is Bill Pulte who is not without his critics and videos why. Meanwhile, in more constructive videos and interviews, housing affordability dominates the conversation, but Pennymac CEO David Spector argues the real solutions extend
8th June, 26
Traders Cautiously Buying The Dip
Things got a bit worse before they got better over the weekend. 10yr yields were as high as 4.58% in overnight trading, but are now roughly unchanged in early domestic trading. Oil prices mirrored the same movement overnight, but haven't recovered as much as bond yields. In fact, bonds arguably led the move lower with a gradual rally starting just after 5am ET. Most of the drop in oil prices followed news that Israel agreed to halt today's attacks in Lebanon. There is no big ticket econ data on tap. War headlines remain relevant as does the bond market's ongoing range-finding after Friday
Traders Cautiously Buying The Dip
Things got a bit worse before they got better over the weekend. 10yr yields were as high as 4.58% in overnight trading, but are now roughly unchanged in early domestic trading. Oil prices mirrored the same movement overnight, but haven't recovered as much as bond yields. In fact, bonds arguably led the move lower with a gradual rally starting just after 5am ET. Most of the drop in oil prices followed news that Israel agreed to halt today's attacks in Lebanon. There is no big ticket econ data on tap. War headlines remain relevant as does the bond market's ongoing range-finding after Friday
5th June, 26
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout If you had to find something reassuring to say about the bond market today, it would be that there wasn't much selling after 9am ET. Unfortunately, there was a whole lot of selling in the prior 30 minutes. Try as they might, analysts couldn't find any obvious holes in the strong picture painted by the jobs report. Stocks got completely destroyed as well--evidence of the jump in Fed rate hike expectations adding to a tech correction that was already underway. An Iran war peace deal remains the biggest market moving prospect on the horizon
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout If you had to find something reassuring to say about the bond market today, it would be that there wasn't much selling after 9am ET. Unfortunately, there was a whole lot of selling in the prior 30 minutes. Try as they might, analysts couldn't find any obvious holes in the strong picture painted by the jobs report. Stocks got completely destroyed as well--evidence of the jump in Fed rate hike expectations adding to a tech correction that was already underway. An Iran war peace deal remains the biggest market moving prospect on the horizon
5th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Jump After Strong Jobs Report
Over the past three months, mortgage rate movement has been driven primarily by developments in the Iran war. It's not that war, itself, is a consideration, but rather the implications for fuel prices and inflation. Bonds care deeply about inflation and interest rates are based directly on bonds. When inflation isn't raging (or at the risk of raging), rates/bonds spend most of their time thinking about the economy. Lately, the data has been even-keeled enough that it hasn't had enough of an impact to override the war's inflation-related volatility, but today was an exception. The jobs report
Mortgage Rates Jump After Strong Jobs Report
Over the past three months, mortgage rate movement has been driven primarily by developments in the Iran war. It's not that war, itself, is a consideration, but rather the implications for fuel prices and inflation. Bonds care deeply about inflation and interest rates are based directly on bonds. When inflation isn't raging (or at the risk of raging), rates/bonds spend most of their time thinking about the economy. Lately, the data has been even-keeled enough that it hasn't had enough of an impact to override the war's inflation-related volatility, but today was an exception. The jobs report