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20th August, 26
Back on The Pain Wagon (Which Runs on Oil)
The correlation between bonds and fuel prices was already creeping back into the picture yesterday. After the Treasury buyback announcement got all of the morning's attention, fuel prices guided the ebbs and flows in the second half of the day. Now today, we're fully back to regularly scheduled programming and there are only so many shows
Back on The Pain Wagon (Which Runs on Oil)
The correlation between bonds and fuel prices was already creeping back into the picture yesterday. After the Treasury buyback announcement got all of the morning's attention, fuel prices guided the ebbs and flows in the second half of the day. Now today, we're fully back to regularly scheduled programming and there are only so many shows
19th August, 26
AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil
AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil To be clear, most of today's rally is attributable to the news on the Treasury buyback program discussed in the morning commentary. Today's consumer rate commentary also has a useful set of bullet points to recap the changes. Ultimately, the buyback news simply meant that the shortest-term debt suffered at the expense of longer-term debt. To put this in perspective, consider that 30yr yields are almost 10bps lower than they were at the open whereas 2yr yields are actually a few bps higher. If today's news was truly akin to QE or any sort of
AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil
AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil To be clear, most of today's rally is attributable to the news on the Treasury buyback program discussed in the morning commentary. Today's consumer rate commentary also has a useful set of bullet points to recap the changes. Ultimately, the buyback news simply meant that the shortest-term debt suffered at the expense of longer-term debt. To put this in perspective, consider that 30yr yields are almost 10bps lower than they were at the open whereas 2yr yields are actually a few bps higher. If today's news was truly akin to QE or any sort of
19th August, 26
Why Mortgage Rates Didn't Fall as Much as 30yr Bonds Today
Mortgage rates dropped on Wednesday due to a combination of lower oil prices and the announcement of changes to Treasury's bond buyback program. The oil price angle is easy to understand. Throughout the war, higher fuel prices have caused volatility in inflation expectations and inflation is a critical consideration for bonds/rates. The Treasury buyback news is more complex and highly oversimplified by the average piece of media coverage. Here are the details that matter: The original buyback program began in 2024 under the Biden admin when Yellen was the Treasury secretary It is not
Why Mortgage Rates Didn't Fall as Much as 30yr Bonds Today
Mortgage rates dropped on Wednesday due to a combination of lower oil prices and the announcement of changes to Treasury's bond buyback program. The oil price angle is easy to understand. Throughout the war, higher fuel prices have caused volatility in inflation expectations and inflation is a critical consideration for bonds/rates. The Treasury buyback news is more complex and highly oversimplified by the average piece of media coverage. Here are the details that matter: The original buyback program began in 2024 under the Biden admin when Yellen was the Treasury secretary It is not
19th August, 26
Hedging, HELOC, Compliance Tools; IMB Costs Still $11k Per Loan; Weak Housing Numbers
Everyone is racing to bolt AI onto their lending process. QAwerk's Konstantin Klyagin says most of them are skipping the boring part that actually matters, and it's going to catch up with them. His argument: an AI agent that can't explain its own decisions isn't a shortcut; it's a liability waiting for a regulator to find it. Read on for what separates the lenders who'll survive scrutiny from those who won't. I remember when the cost to produce a loan was less than $11,000, where it is now. (More detail below.) I remember when LOs weren’t insurance counselors, trying to help clients with
Hedging, HELOC, Compliance Tools; IMB Costs Still $11k Per Loan; Weak Housing Numbers
Everyone is racing to bolt AI onto their lending process. QAwerk's Konstantin Klyagin says most of them are skipping the boring part that actually matters, and it's going to catch up with them. His argument: an AI agent that can't explain its own decisions isn't a shortcut; it's a liability waiting for a regulator to find it. Read on for what separates the lenders who'll survive scrutiny from those who won't. I remember when the cost to produce a loan was less than $11,000, where it is now. (More detail below.) I remember when LOs weren’t insurance counselors, trying to help clients with
19th August, 26
Bonds Rally After Treasury Buyback Announcement (NOT QE)
At 8:30am, Treasury announced it would double the size of the existing buyback program from $2 to $4 billion for 10-30yr maturities. This sounds like a big deal, but it's only really a medium deal. It's not QE and it never was. Treasury has been conducting buyback operations for more than 2 years and the primary purpose is to support LIQUIDITY in the bond market rather than to influence yield levels. Nonetheless, the bond market can't help but experience some impact to yield when these things are announced/changed simply because it affects the composition of buying demand. Specifically, if
Bonds Rally After Treasury Buyback Announcement (NOT QE)
At 8:30am, Treasury announced it would double the size of the existing buyback program from $2 to $4 billion for 10-30yr maturities. This sounds like a big deal, but it's only really a medium deal. It's not QE and it never was. Treasury has been conducting buyback operations for more than 2 years and the primary purpose is to support LIQUIDITY in the bond market rather than to influence yield levels. Nonetheless, the bond market can't help but experience some impact to yield when these things are announced/changed simply because it affects the composition of buying demand. Specifically, if
18th August, 26
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green Tuesday offered remarkably of interest or consequence for the bond market. The most notable development was the brief visit to 4.75% in 10yr yields followed by the emergence of the quintessential "dip buyer" (i.e. "hey look... yields are high enough again that I think I'm going to buy some Treasuries"). The post-9:30am timing adds emphasis to that mentality among the retail investor community. Apart from that, there were no obvious motivations or relevant data points. Wednesday suffers a similar absence of scheduled events with the only exception
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green Tuesday offered remarkably of interest or consequence for the bond market. The most notable development was the brief visit to 4.75% in 10yr yields followed by the emergence of the quintessential "dip buyer" (i.e. "hey look... yields are high enough again that I think I'm going to buy some Treasuries"). The post-9:30am timing adds emphasis to that mentality among the retail investor community. Apart from that, there were no obvious motivations or relevant data points. Wednesday suffers a similar absence of scheduled events with the only exception
18th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Continue Higher Despite Bond Market Improvement
Mortgage rates rose for the third straight day on Tuesday with the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moving up a modest 0.02% to 6.75%. Notably, the bond market was actually in slightly better shape compared to yesterday--something that would normally be good news for rates. So what's the catch? As is often the case when bonds and mortgages disagree, the x factor is timing. Mortgage lenders prefer to release rates once per day (usually around 10am ET) and they only change rates if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move in either direction. Bonds lost ground yesterday,
Mortgage Rates Continue Higher Despite Bond Market Improvement
Mortgage rates rose for the third straight day on Tuesday with the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moving up a modest 0.02% to 6.75%. Notably, the bond market was actually in slightly better shape compared to yesterday--something that would normally be good news for rates. So what's the catch? As is often the case when bonds and mortgages disagree, the x factor is timing. Mortgage lenders prefer to release rates once per day (usually around 10am ET) and they only change rates if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move in either direction. Bonds lost ground yesterday,
18th August, 26
Verification, Title/DSCR, Escrow Reporting, BI Asset Products; Disasters Shifting, as is FEMA; AI and Data
While Lake Powell and the Colorado River are at their lowest levels ever, and states like Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington are in a drought, would you like a short clip of what they’re experiencing in Hawai’i? So far, the North Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30) has been light, which pleases homeowners, servicers, lenders, and insurance companies. But elsewhere this year’s tornado season showed the continued trend of Tornado Alley shifting eastward and into more populated areas, with Illinois leading all states in tornado activity (220 confirmed tornadoes) and Indiana and
Verification, Title/DSCR, Escrow Reporting, BI Asset Products; Disasters Shifting, as is FEMA; AI and Data
While Lake Powell and the Colorado River are at their lowest levels ever, and states like Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington are in a drought, would you like a short clip of what they’re experiencing in Hawai’i? So far, the North Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30) has been light, which pleases homeowners, servicers, lenders, and insurance companies. But elsewhere this year’s tornado season showed the continued trend of Tornado Alley shifting eastward and into more populated areas, with Illinois leading all states in tornado activity (220 confirmed tornadoes) and Indiana and
18th August, 26
Weaker Start, But Traders Buying The Dip
Big picture momentum has been calmly but clearly skewed toward higher yields for almost 10 months. There have been a few attempts to bounce at technical ceilings along the way up from 4.0% 10yr yields (4.3%, 4.42%, and 4.75%). August has been mostly sideways near the longer-term highs, but the first two days of this week have set up another challenge of the 4.75% technical ceiling. From a simple "value buying" standpoint, there's always some magical line in the sand where investors will conclude yields are high enough to constitute a good buying opportunity. Over the past several years, this
Weaker Start, But Traders Buying The Dip
Big picture momentum has been calmly but clearly skewed toward higher yields for almost 10 months. There have been a few attempts to bounce at technical ceilings along the way up from 4.0% 10yr yields (4.3%, 4.42%, and 4.75%). August has been mostly sideways near the longer-term highs, but the first two days of this week have set up another challenge of the 4.75% technical ceiling. From a simple "value buying" standpoint, there's always some magical line in the sand where investors will conclude yields are high enough to constitute a good buying opportunity. Over the past several years, this
17th August, 26
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher Some summertime Mondays are slow and uneventful. Some see brisk movement. Today's was somewhere in between. There was modest pressure at the outset following headlines about Iran planning to escalate hostilities. The sharpest increase in oil prices coincided with Iran seizing a UAE tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields followed and hit the highs of the day shortly thereafter. Bottom line: fairly straightforward day, even if moderately unpleasant for fans of low rates. Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing 20.6 vs 11 f'cast, 15.6 prev
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher Some summertime Mondays are slow and uneventful. Some see brisk movement. Today's was somewhere in between. There was modest pressure at the outset following headlines about Iran planning to escalate hostilities. The sharpest increase in oil prices coincided with Iran seizing a UAE tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields followed and hit the highs of the day shortly thereafter. Bottom line: fairly straightforward day, even if moderately unpleasant for fans of low rates. Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing 20.6 vs 11 f'cast, 15.6 prev