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30th January, 26
Volatility Eludes Bonds
Volatility Eludes Bonds Bonds saw some steady selling pressure earlier in the week, but with the total damage amounting to an average of 2bps per day in 10yr yields, it was anything but volatile. The past 2 trading sessions had more noticeable ups and downs, but they played out in an even narrower range. Friday, specifically, was woefully range-bound with 10yr yields essentially in a 2bp range all day. Balmy PPI data and Fed Chair decisions and historic volatility in certain commodities didn't make any difference. Even the 3pm ET month-end trading barely registered a response despite the
Volatility Eludes Bonds
Volatility Eludes Bonds Bonds saw some steady selling pressure earlier in the week, but with the total damage amounting to an average of 2bps per day in 10yr yields, it was anything but volatile. The past 2 trading sessions had more noticeable ups and downs, but they played out in an even narrower range. Friday, specifically, was woefully range-bound with 10yr yields essentially in a 2bp range all day. Balmy PPI data and Fed Chair decisions and historic volatility in certain commodities didn't make any difference. Even the 3pm ET month-end trading barely registered a response despite the
30th January, 26
Mortgage Rates Sidestep Into The Weekend
While there was certainly plenty of volatility elsewhere in the financial market this week, there was almost none to be found in mortgage rates. Wed, Thu, and Fri all recorded the exact same level in MND's 30yr fixed rate index--something that only happens a few times every year. Rates are based on bonds and bonds are waiting for more serious inspiration after undergoing a bit of elevated volatility at the beginning of last week. The present week has been all about consolidating and settling into a narrower range as we wait for the more important economic data on deck next week
Mortgage Rates Sidestep Into The Weekend
While there was certainly plenty of volatility elsewhere in the financial market this week, there was almost none to be found in mortgage rates. Wed, Thu, and Fri all recorded the exact same level in MND's 30yr fixed rate index--something that only happens a few times every year. Rates are based on bonds and bonds are waiting for more serious inspiration after undergoing a bit of elevated volatility at the beginning of last week. The present week has been all about consolidating and settling into a narrower range as we wait for the more important economic data on deck next week
30th January, 26
November Was Best Month of Home Price Appreciation in More Than a Year
Both the FHFA and the S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller home price indices released November data this week, and the combined message is that home price appreciation continues doing better than it had been in the middle of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index paints clearest picture with seasonally adjusted home prices up 0.6% month-over-month in November and 1.9% year-over-year . This is the 2nd month in a row with price appreciation at the highest levels in more than a year. Both data sets highlight regional differences. Monthly price changes ranged from flat in the Middle
November Was Best Month of Home Price Appreciation in More Than a Year
Both the FHFA and the S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller home price indices released November data this week, and the combined message is that home price appreciation continues doing better than it had been in the middle of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index paints clearest picture with seasonally adjusted home prices up 0.6% month-over-month in November and 1.9% year-over-year . This is the 2nd month in a row with price appreciation at the highest levels in more than a year. Both data sets highlight regional differences. Monthly price changes ranged from flat in the Middle
30th January, 26
Logical Pull-Back in Mortgage Apps as Rates Rebound
Mortgage application activity retreated a bit last week following two weeks of unusually strong volume, although holiday timing played a meaningful role in the weekly comparison. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications fell 8.5% for the week ending January 23, giving back a portion of the recent surge. The Market Composite Index declined 8.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis and was down 16% on an unadjusted basis, reflecting both the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday adjustment and a market that has shown wide week-to-week swings after extended periods of low activity
Logical Pull-Back in Mortgage Apps as Rates Rebound
Mortgage application activity retreated a bit last week following two weeks of unusually strong volume, although holiday timing played a meaningful role in the weekly comparison. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications fell 8.5% for the week ending January 23, giving back a portion of the recent surge. The Market Composite Index declined 8.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis and was down 16% on an unadjusted basis, reflecting both the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday adjustment and a market that has shown wide week-to-week swings after extended periods of low activity
30th January, 26
Verification, Licensing Tools; Correspondent News; Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh
There’s a lot of sensible thinking going on out there in our biz. Yesterday in the Thought Leadership section, attorney Mitch Kider addressed the “Rule of Law” and what he believes is important to the industry. In a new article featured in Chrisman Commentary's Thought Leadership, David Spector challenges the rate-centric view of housing affordability, arguing that the real strain comes from a tight housing supply pipeline, local zoning and permitting roadblocks, and tax policies that shape who can afford to own versus invest. He examines how transaction costs, insurance, property taxes
Verification, Licensing Tools; Correspondent News; Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh
There’s a lot of sensible thinking going on out there in our biz. Yesterday in the Thought Leadership section, attorney Mitch Kider addressed the “Rule of Law” and what he believes is important to the industry. In a new article featured in Chrisman Commentary's Thought Leadership, David Spector challenges the rate-centric view of housing affordability, arguing that the real strain comes from a tight housing supply pipeline, local zoning and permitting roadblocks, and tax policies that shape who can afford to own versus invest. He examines how transaction costs, insurance, property taxes
30th January, 26
Why Don't Bonds Care About The Massive Miss in PPI?
PPI... The Producer Price Index. It sounds a lot like CPI because both are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and they share lots of methodology and structure. Given that CPI has been responsible for some of the biggest bond market reactions, you'd be well within your rights to expect a big sell-off after seeing something like Core PPI coming in at 0.7 vs a 0.2 forecast and 0.0 previous reading. After all, if that happened in CPI, bond yields could easily be shooting 10bps higher. But PPI is notoriously more volatile. In addition, it's most useful to the bond market due to its
Why Don't Bonds Care About The Massive Miss in PPI?
PPI... The Producer Price Index. It sounds a lot like CPI because both are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and they share lots of methodology and structure. Given that CPI has been responsible for some of the biggest bond market reactions, you'd be well within your rights to expect a big sell-off after seeing something like Core PPI coming in at 0.7 vs a 0.2 forecast and 0.0 previous reading. After all, if that happened in CPI, bond yields could easily be shooting 10bps higher. But PPI is notoriously more volatile. In addition, it's most useful to the bond market due to its
29th January, 26
Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped
Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped Bonds began the day with a bit of selling pressure. It was almost too small to draw much attention to. MBS never dropped below yesterday's lows and 10yr yields merely moved back up to overnight highs (also, no higher than yesterday's highs). In other words, it was "in-range weakness"--the kind of thing we often view as incidental and inconsequential. Shortly after the 9:30am NYSE open, stocks tanked hard along with several of the recently volatile commodities. Bonds benefited from that selling, but didn't lose any ground
Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped
Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped Bonds began the day with a bit of selling pressure. It was almost too small to draw much attention to. MBS never dropped below yesterday's lows and 10yr yields merely moved back up to overnight highs (also, no higher than yesterday's highs). In other words, it was "in-range weakness"--the kind of thing we often view as incidental and inconsequential. Shortly after the 9:30am NYSE open, stocks tanked hard along with several of the recently volatile commodities. Bonds benefited from that selling, but didn't lose any ground
29th January, 26
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Despite Volatility in Other Markets
Sometimes being tuned into daily mortgage rate changes means coming across other news about financial markets. In today's case, that could expose you to anything from the massive selling of certain stocks earlier in the day or the unprecedented trading levels in various commodities. While the financial market buzz may be centered on silver and gold (and Microsoft, today), mortgage rates drifted quietly sideways. That's no surprise considering rates are based on trading in the bond market and bonds were roughly unchanged. This keeps the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.16%.
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Despite Volatility in Other Markets
Sometimes being tuned into daily mortgage rate changes means coming across other news about financial markets. In today's case, that could expose you to anything from the massive selling of certain stocks earlier in the day or the unprecedented trading levels in various commodities. While the financial market buzz may be centered on silver and gold (and Microsoft, today), mortgage rates drifted quietly sideways. That's no surprise considering rates are based on trading in the bond market and bonds were roughly unchanged. This keeps the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.16%.
29th January, 26
Property Database, Construction Products; Attorney Mitch Kider Thought Leadership; STRATMOR on AI
Fans of MASH know that Alan Alda turned 90 yesterday, and the remaining actors from the show joined him on the beach. When you reach a certain age you don’t care about the employment picture. Amazon laying off another 16,000, as announced this week, won’t help anyone’s “the economy is doing great” argument. As economist Elliot Eisenberg points out, “The most disturbing piece of information from last week’s income data is the confirmation of a complete lack of income growth over the past 12 months. During 11/24, real (after inflation) disposable (after taxes) per capita personal
Property Database, Construction Products; Attorney Mitch Kider Thought Leadership; STRATMOR on AI
Fans of MASH know that Alan Alda turned 90 yesterday, and the remaining actors from the show joined him on the beach. When you reach a certain age you don’t care about the employment picture. Amazon laying off another 16,000, as announced this week, won’t help anyone’s “the economy is doing great” argument. As economist Elliot Eisenberg points out, “The most disturbing piece of information from last week’s income data is the confirmation of a complete lack of income growth over the past 12 months. During 11/24, real (after inflation) disposable (after taxes) per capita personal
29th January, 26
Weaker After Econ Data, But Bonds May Be Looking Elsewhere
Continued jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since October 2024 and bonds are selling off a bit. Those two things may seem like they're clearly connected, but the selling didn't start for another 15 minutes after the data and the most noticeable selling has taken place in the past 15 minutes (almost a full hour after the data). As for a scapegoat for that selling, there's only conjecture. We can see surging commodities prices coinciding with Treasury sales, but we wouldn't leap to the assumption that traders are selling bonds to buy commodities. In any event, the damage is
Weaker After Econ Data, But Bonds May Be Looking Elsewhere
Continued jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since October 2024 and bonds are selling off a bit. Those two things may seem like they're clearly connected, but the selling didn't start for another 15 minutes after the data and the most noticeable selling has taken place in the past 15 minutes (almost a full hour after the data). As for a scapegoat for that selling, there's only conjecture. We can see surging commodities prices coinciding with Treasury sales, but we wouldn't leap to the assumption that traders are selling bonds to buy commodities. In any event, the damage is