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18th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Move Back Up Near Recent Highs
Mortgage rates got hit 3 times on Wednesday, with the net effect being a move back up to the highest levels in several months. The average lender isn't quite as high as they were last Friday, but after late-day "reprices" many are fairly close. The least of the bond market's concerns (bonds dictate rates) was this morning's inflation data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was higher than expected on multiple fronts, including those that translate directly to higher consumer prices in the more robust PCE inflation data that comes out on April 9th. Higher inflation = higher rates, all else
Mortgage Rates Move Back Up Near Recent Highs
Mortgage rates got hit 3 times on Wednesday, with the net effect being a move back up to the highest levels in several months. The average lender isn't quite as high as they were last Friday, but after late-day "reprices" many are fairly close. The least of the bond market's concerns (bonds dictate rates) was this morning's inflation data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was higher than expected on multiple fronts, including those that translate directly to higher consumer prices in the more robust PCE inflation data that comes out on April 9th. Higher inflation = higher rates, all else
18th March, 26
Bonds Weren't Prepared For Fed's Inflation Fears
Bonds Weren't Prepared For Fed's Inflation Fears If anything, you'd think the market would have been pricing in a hawkish Fed day, given the run up in energy prices. But Powell threw reporters a curve ball during the press conference and instead placed the focus on other categories of inflation that were under the microscope before the energy price spike (like core goods and non-housing services), saying there'd been less progress than hoped. The takeaway was that rate cuts are on hold for the foreseeable future. The market agrees, as it is now pricing the next rate cut at more than a year in
Bonds Weren't Prepared For Fed's Inflation Fears
Bonds Weren't Prepared For Fed's Inflation Fears If anything, you'd think the market would have been pricing in a hawkish Fed day, given the run up in energy prices. But Powell threw reporters a curve ball during the press conference and instead placed the focus on other categories of inflation that were under the microscope before the energy price spike (like core goods and non-housing services), saying there'd been less progress than hoped. The takeaway was that rate cuts are on hold for the foreseeable future. The market agrees, as it is now pricing the next rate cut at more than a year in
18th March, 26
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. In support of
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. In support of
18th March, 26
Servicing, CRM, BI, QC, HELOC, TBA, Title Products; STRATMOR on Servicing; UAD 3.6
Among the hot topics in the hallways of the ICE Experience is the evolution in data contained in each lien, along with massive appraisal change hitting our biz. I was chatting with Class Valuation’s Mark Walser yesterday about UAD 3.6. (If you’d like a primer on it, and you should, see this write up by Mike Simmons.) On 11/2/26, all appraisals, to be eligible for sale to Fannie and Freddie, must be submitted in UAD (Uniform Appraisal Dataset) 3.6 format. From what Mark said, lenders need to have begun setting up the process and planning in the first quarter of 2026, and spend the 2nd and
Servicing, CRM, BI, QC, HELOC, TBA, Title Products; STRATMOR on Servicing; UAD 3.6
Among the hot topics in the hallways of the ICE Experience is the evolution in data contained in each lien, along with massive appraisal change hitting our biz. I was chatting with Class Valuation’s Mark Walser yesterday about UAD 3.6. (If you’d like a primer on it, and you should, see this write up by Mike Simmons.) On 11/2/26, all appraisals, to be eligible for sale to Fannie and Freddie, must be submitted in UAD (Uniform Appraisal Dataset) 3.6 format. From what Mark said, lenders need to have begun setting up the process and planning in the first quarter of 2026, and spend the 2nd and
18th March, 26
Overnight Gains Erased by PPI/Oil. Fed on Deck
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was this morning's only big ticket econ data and calling it "big ticket" is a bit of a stretch. PPI often passes without a trace, but can occasionally get an obvious response even if it's not a huge response. Today's installment is bigger than normal. If there's a reason, it would be that the PPI components that flow through to PCE (a more important inflation metric) are all elevated (sometimes they run counter to the PPI headline). If there's another reason, it's because bonds aren't just reacting to PPI but also doing the same oil "follow oil prices" routine.
Overnight Gains Erased by PPI/Oil. Fed on Deck
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was this morning's only big ticket econ data and calling it "big ticket" is a bit of a stretch. PPI often passes without a trace, but can occasionally get an obvious response even if it's not a huge response. Today's installment is bigger than normal. If there's a reason, it would be that the PPI components that flow through to PCE (a more important inflation metric) are all elevated (sometimes they run counter to the PPI headline). If there's another reason, it's because bonds aren't just reacting to PPI but also doing the same oil "follow oil prices" routine.
17th March, 26
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger Bonds did something they haven't done in almost 3 weeks today. They closed at stronger levels for the second consecutive day. The last time that happened was February 27th at the end of the impressive month-long rally. While today was stronger, it wasn't exactly impressive (or event that interesting). The most notable development was the fact that bonds rallied despite slightly higher oil prices. This is the opposite dynamic from certain moments last week where bonds underperformed a 1:1 correlation with oil. Econ Data / Events NY Fed
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger Bonds did something they haven't done in almost 3 weeks today. They closed at stronger levels for the second consecutive day. The last time that happened was February 27th at the end of the impressive month-long rally. While today was stronger, it wasn't exactly impressive (or event that interesting). The most notable development was the fact that bonds rallied despite slightly higher oil prices. This is the opposite dynamic from certain moments last week where bonds underperformed a 1:1 correlation with oil. Econ Data / Events NY Fed
17th March, 26
The Fed Isn't Doing Anything to Mortgage Rates on Wednesday
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates, but also a fairly decent one. The underlying bond market made modest gains even without meaningful cues from oil prices. Lately, oil price volatility has been the most visible motivation for bonds and, thus, interest rates. After cresting 6.40% last week, the MND 30yr fixed rate index is back below 6.30% today, albeit just barely (6.29% for top tier 30yr fixed rates at the average lender). Looking ahead, tomorrow afternoon brings the latest Fed announcement. The market has conclusively decided there will be no rate cut. Even if the opposite
The Fed Isn't Doing Anything to Mortgage Rates on Wednesday
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates, but also a fairly decent one. The underlying bond market made modest gains even without meaningful cues from oil prices. Lately, oil price volatility has been the most visible motivation for bonds and, thus, interest rates. After cresting 6.40% last week, the MND 30yr fixed rate index is back below 6.30% today, albeit just barely (6.29% for top tier 30yr fixed rates at the average lender). Looking ahead, tomorrow afternoon brings the latest Fed announcement. The market has conclusively decided there will be no rate cut. Even if the opposite
17th March, 26
Commercial, eClosing, Retention, Processing Tools; Wholesaler, Corresp. News; False Claims Update
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders The average person makes more than 35,000 decisions a day. Most are inconsequential: coffee or tea, paper or plastic. For mortgage capital markets teams, whose decisions shape pricing, execution quality, and risk exposure, the stakes are much higher. Fortunately, a new independent analysis from MarketWise Advisors shows Optimal Blue helps lenders make those decisions more accurately and efficiently. Lenders using Optimal Blue report an average net financial benefit of $1,006 per loan. The study also found nearly 45 percent greater
Commercial, eClosing, Retention, Processing Tools; Wholesaler, Corresp. News; False Claims Update
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders The average person makes more than 35,000 decisions a day. Most are inconsequential: coffee or tea, paper or plastic. For mortgage capital markets teams, whose decisions shape pricing, execution quality, and risk exposure, the stakes are much higher. Fortunately, a new independent analysis from MarketWise Advisors shows Optimal Blue helps lenders make those decisions more accurately and efficiently. Lenders using Optimal Blue report an average net financial benefit of $1,006 per loan. The study also found nearly 45 percent greater
17th March, 26
Another Solid Start, But Without as Much Help From Oil
Until the end of the Iran war, bond traders are keeping oil prices on their screens and comparing oil price movement against bond market movement as the first task on the daily checklist. In so doing, we see a bit of outperformance on the part of bonds this morning. While there is solid directional correlation (i.e. yields and oil were moving in the same directions at the same times), bond yields are lower today while oil is still a bit higher. Surprisingly, today's highest minute of volume happened with the 8:15am ADP data which showed its biggest drop in months. That
Another Solid Start, But Without as Much Help From Oil
Until the end of the Iran war, bond traders are keeping oil prices on their screens and comparing oil price movement against bond market movement as the first task on the daily checklist. In so doing, we see a bit of outperformance on the part of bonds this morning. While there is solid directional correlation (i.e. yields and oil were moving in the same directions at the same times), bond yields are lower today while oil is still a bit higher. Surprisingly, today's highest minute of volume happened with the 8:15am ADP data which showed its biggest drop in months. That
16th March, 26
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower There's no sense in overcomplicating today's trading session. Oil was down significantly and so were bond yields. The correlation was very strong after 4am ET with each major peak and valley aligning. Econ data was present, but not a relevant consideration for trading. Stocks were also part of the correlation game but in a perfectly inverted way (peak in oil/yields = valley in stock prices). In other words, both sides of the market remain transfixed by energy prices. This hasn't been the exclusive market mover in March, but it's
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower There's no sense in overcomplicating today's trading session. Oil was down significantly and so were bond yields. The correlation was very strong after 4am ET with each major peak and valley aligning. Econ data was present, but not a relevant consideration for trading. Stocks were also part of the correlation game but in a perfectly inverted way (peak in oil/yields = valley in stock prices). In other words, both sides of the market remain transfixed by energy prices. This hasn't been the exclusive market mover in March, but it's