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8th May, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week Slightly Lower
It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the third highest since August 2025. But that ended up being the only day where rates went higher. Wednesday brough the biggest chunk of the recovery with MND's daily rate index dropping 0.10%. Tuesday and Friday (today) each added a 0.02% drop, taking the index to 6.42% after ending last week at 6.44%. War-related headlines were less of a factor today and volatility was unsurprisingly lighter as a result. This is an adjustment for seasoned
Mortgage Rates End Week Slightly Lower
It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the third highest since August 2025. But that ended up being the only day where rates went higher. Wednesday brough the biggest chunk of the recovery with MND's daily rate index dropping 0.10%. Tuesday and Friday (today) each added a 0.02% drop, taking the index to 6.42% after ending last week at 6.44%. War-related headlines were less of a factor today and volatility was unsurprisingly lighter as a result. This is an adjustment for seasoned
8th May, 26
Higher Rates Hit Mortgage Apps, But Only Modestly
Mortgage applications declined last week, reversing some of the prior period’s gains as rates climbed to their highest level in a month. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 4.4% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 1. The decline was broad-based, with both purchase and refinance activity moving lower. The Refinance Index fell 5% from the previous week but remained 29% higher than the same week one year ago. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4% week over week and was still 5% above last year’s level. In the bigger picture,
Higher Rates Hit Mortgage Apps, But Only Modestly
Mortgage applications declined last week, reversing some of the prior period’s gains as rates climbed to their highest level in a month. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 4.4% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 1. The decline was broad-based, with both purchase and refinance activity moving lower. The Refinance Index fell 5% from the previous week but remained 29% higher than the same week one year ago. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4% week over week and was still 5% above last year’s level. In the bigger picture,
8th May, 26
2-Month Glut of Data Brings New Home Sales Back to Center of The Range
New home sales moved higher in March and February. Both months were reported on a single day this week as the Census Bureau continues catching up from the government shutdown. After dropping to 587k in January, sales rose to 635k in February and 682k in March. This represents a solid bounce back into the center of the broadly sideways range that's been intact for the past 2 years. For-sale inventory edged slightly lower to 481,000 , down 0.4% from February and 4.6% below year-ago levels. At the current sales pace, months’ supply fell to 8.5 months , down from 9.1 months in
2-Month Glut of Data Brings New Home Sales Back to Center of The Range
New home sales moved higher in March and February. Both months were reported on a single day this week as the Census Bureau continues catching up from the government shutdown. After dropping to 587k in January, sales rose to 635k in February and 682k in March. This represents a solid bounce back into the center of the broadly sideways range that's been intact for the past 2 years. For-sale inventory edged slightly lower to 481,000 , down 0.4% from February and 4.6% below year-ago levels. At the current sales pace, months’ supply fell to 8.5 months , down from 9.1 months in
8th May, 26
BBYS, Anti-Fraud, Subservicing Products; Primer Hedging Information for MLOs; Cap. Markets Deep Dive
If you haven’t signed up for the Mortgage Action Alliance, do so. It’s free, has good advocacy information, and there’s strength in numbers. Recent conference chatter includes suggesting that removing politics from the mortgage conversation would be a good thing to attempt, wondering if there’s enough regulatory manpower muscle to take the existing LO comp rules and re-jigger them, some believing that the recent credit score announcements are lacking leave much to be desired, asking why the Fed’s useful Twitter account (Financial Sentiment Index, TFSI) vanished, and suggestions that
BBYS, Anti-Fraud, Subservicing Products; Primer Hedging Information for MLOs; Cap. Markets Deep Dive
If you haven’t signed up for the Mortgage Action Alliance, do so. It’s free, has good advocacy information, and there’s strength in numbers. Recent conference chatter includes suggesting that removing politics from the mortgage conversation would be a good thing to attempt, wondering if there’s enough regulatory manpower muscle to take the existing LO comp rules and re-jigger them, some believing that the recent credit score announcements are lacking leave much to be desired, asking why the Fed’s useful Twitter account (Financial Sentiment Index, TFSI) vanished, and suggestions that
8th May, 26
Forget What You Know About The Payroll Count
Everyone's been talking about the ongoing change in the significance of the payroll number in the jobs report. OK, not everyone, but economists and bond traders for sure. The issue is the rapid shift in the size of the labor force as well as recent volatility in the multiple jobholder category, among other things. Specifically, the labor force has been shrinking since November and was already growing at a slower rate before then. That means it takes a lower NFP number to keep unemployment flat. More importantly, it means that NFP is no longer the be all, end all economic indicator. For decades
Forget What You Know About The Payroll Count
Everyone's been talking about the ongoing change in the significance of the payroll number in the jobs report. OK, not everyone, but economists and bond traders for sure. The issue is the rapid shift in the size of the labor force as well as recent volatility in the multiple jobholder category, among other things. Specifically, the labor force has been shrinking since November and was already growing at a slower rate before then. That means it takes a lower NFP number to keep unemployment flat. More importantly, it means that NFP is no longer the be all, end all economic indicator. For decades
7th May, 26
Another Mid-Day Reversal. Does Jobs Report Even Matter?
Another Mid-Day Reversal Driven by Dueling Headlines The overnight session featured a modest but clearly-defined rally in response to hopeful headlines on the Iran war. But as early a 9am ET, a complete reversal was beginning to take shape. Bonds remained in positive territory until the 11am hour when war headlines kicked selling into higher gear. Specifically, reports suggested Iran rejected the U.S. framework that helped bonds overnight. Separate news cited CIA sources, claiming Iran can withstand a Hormuz blockade for months. Selling continued in the afternoon on reports that had more to do
Another Mid-Day Reversal. Does Jobs Report Even Matter?
Another Mid-Day Reversal Driven by Dueling Headlines The overnight session featured a modest but clearly-defined rally in response to hopeful headlines on the Iran war. But as early a 9am ET, a complete reversal was beginning to take shape. Bonds remained in positive territory until the 11am hour when war headlines kicked selling into higher gear. Specifically, reports suggested Iran rejected the U.S. framework that helped bonds overnight. Separate news cited CIA sources, claiming Iran can withstand a Hormuz blockade for months. Selling continued in the afternoon on reports that had more to do
7th May, 26
Mortgage Rates Erase Early Improvement
The day began on a fairly hopeful note for the mortgage market. During overnight trading hours, the bond market improved following a report regarding a peace framework sent to Iran by The U.S. When bonds improve, rates fall, all else equal. The gains were modest, but they allowed the average lender to set their first rates of the day at slightly lower levels compared to yesterday. Lenders prefer a "one and done" strategy when it comes to setting mortgage rates for the day, but they will make mid-day changes if the underlying market moves enough. The underlying market began moving more
Mortgage Rates Erase Early Improvement
The day began on a fairly hopeful note for the mortgage market. During overnight trading hours, the bond market improved following a report regarding a peace framework sent to Iran by The U.S. When bonds improve, rates fall, all else equal. The gains were modest, but they allowed the average lender to set their first rates of the day at slightly lower levels compared to yesterday. Lenders prefer a "one and done" strategy when it comes to setting mortgage rates for the day, but they will make mid-day changes if the underlying market moves enough. The underlying market began moving more
7th May, 26
Hedging and Secondary, Verification, AI, Reverse, Ops Tools; Earnings; Market Muddle
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services Spring homebuying season is in full swing, and for many lenders, that also means a surge in home equity demand as borrowers tap rising property values. But growth can expose cracks. Every handoff, re-entry, and system switch adds time and increases the risk of human error. FirstClose is working to change that with its upcoming integration with MeridianLink Mortgage. By bringing purpose-built order management directly into the LOS, lenders can streamline valuations, settlement, and vendor coordination without leaving their existing workflow.
Hedging and Secondary, Verification, AI, Reverse, Ops Tools; Earnings; Market Muddle
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services Spring homebuying season is in full swing, and for many lenders, that also means a surge in home equity demand as borrowers tap rising property values. But growth can expose cracks. Every handoff, re-entry, and system switch adds time and increases the risk of human error. FirstClose is working to change that with its upcoming integration with MeridianLink Mortgage. By bringing purpose-built order management directly into the LOS, lenders can streamline valuations, settlement, and vendor coordination without leaving their existing workflow.
7th May, 26
More Peace Deal Hope, More Overnight Gains
Bonds and oil rallied again in the overnight session, though not as swiftly as they did yesterday. News was thinner, but there was still an obvious catalyst just before 3am with a WSJ report that the U.S. provided Iran a detailed framework to end the war. The line item that caught the market's attention was a change in the moratorium on uranium enrichment. Previously, it was permanent, but the new framework calls for 20 years. 10yr yields rallied several bps on the news and oil prices moved down about 4 dollars. There hasn't been much volatility in bonds since then with 8:30am data proving to
More Peace Deal Hope, More Overnight Gains
Bonds and oil rallied again in the overnight session, though not as swiftly as they did yesterday. News was thinner, but there was still an obvious catalyst just before 3am with a WSJ report that the U.S. provided Iran a detailed framework to end the war. The line item that caught the market's attention was a change in the moratorium on uranium enrichment. Previously, it was permanent, but the new framework calls for 20 years. 10yr yields rallied several bps on the news and oil prices moved down about 4 dollars. There hasn't been much volatility in bonds since then with 8:30am data proving to
6th May, 26
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day The entirety of the domestic trading session was very flat compared to the ground covered during the overnight session. Pre-market headlines regarding a potential peace deal accounted for a 7bp drop in 10yr yields and 3/8th point improvement in MBS. 10s gained about 1 more bp by the close and MBS added another eighth of a point, bringing to total rally over half a point on the day as of 4pm ET. There were no other notable market movers by the time domestic trading hours began. The rally speaks to the likelihood that an official peace deal could
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day
Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day The entirety of the domestic trading session was very flat compared to the ground covered during the overnight session. Pre-market headlines regarding a potential peace deal accounted for a 7bp drop in 10yr yields and 3/8th point improvement in MBS. 10s gained about 1 more bp by the close and MBS added another eighth of a point, bringing to total rally over half a point on the day as of 4pm ET. There were no other notable market movers by the time domestic trading hours began. The rally speaks to the likelihood that an official peace deal could