Latest news
1st April, 26
Community Dev., Non-Del Non-QM, Hedging Products; Credit News; Capital Markets
Time flies, Apple turns 50 today, the first quarter is in the books, and here in Northern Nevada, like everywhere, lenders are watching trends and technology. There are all kinds of lists out there, but for those who prefer the CFPB’s data, there’s HMDA Market Share Dashboards for Origination Statistics. In terms of technology, there’s always something new in the AI lender world, and there are firms that specialize in it including Ocrolus, TRUE, Aiva AI & Automation, Marr Labs, TrustEngine, Friday Harbor, AiCR, Guideline Buddy, JazzX AI, and MOZAIQ listed in the Marketplace. “
Community Dev., Non-Del Non-QM, Hedging Products; Credit News; Capital Markets
Time flies, Apple turns 50 today, the first quarter is in the books, and here in Northern Nevada, like everywhere, lenders are watching trends and technology. There are all kinds of lists out there, but for those who prefer the CFPB’s data, there’s HMDA Market Share Dashboards for Origination Statistics. In terms of technology, there’s always something new in the AI lender world, and there are firms that specialize in it including Ocrolus, TRUE, Aiva AI & Automation, Marr Labs, TrustEngine, Friday Harbor, AiCR, Guideline Buddy, JazzX AI, and MOZAIQ listed in the Marketplace. “
1st April, 26
Data and War Headlines Erase Overnight Gains
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session after Trump said the US may exit the war soon. Those gains have been more than erased (just barely) after this morning's data. Both ADP and Retail Sales were stronger than expected although it should be noted that Retail Sales is for the month of February in this case. New Trump headlines also added to the pull-back as he declined to give a timeline on an Iran exit. As of 9:30am ET, MBS were just a hair weaker than unchanged and 10yr yields were up 1.3bps at 4.327. ISM Manufacturing remains on deck at 10am ET and a big beat/miss could have an
Data and War Headlines Erase Overnight Gains
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session after Trump said the US may exit the war soon. Those gains have been more than erased (just barely) after this morning's data. Both ADP and Retail Sales were stronger than expected although it should be noted that Retail Sales is for the month of February in this case. New Trump headlines also added to the pull-back as he declined to give a timeline on an Iran exit. As of 9:30am ET, MBS were just a hair weaker than unchanged and 10yr yields were up 1.3bps at 4.327. ISM Manufacturing remains on deck at 10am ET and a big beat/miss could have an
31st March, 26
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion Q1 was fairly eventful for the bond market with solid--sometimes puzzling--gains in February followed by a relative rout in March. Heavy quarter-end rebalancing flows are making for more volatility than normal at 4pm ET, but up until that point, 10yr yields had rallied roughly 8bps. Those gains were fueled by headlines that spoke to potential de-escalation in Iran--something that's easy enough to confirm by examining the corresponding drop in oil prices and spike in stocks. That said, the underlying news falls short of marking a distinct
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion Q1 was fairly eventful for the bond market with solid--sometimes puzzling--gains in February followed by a relative rout in March. Heavy quarter-end rebalancing flows are making for more volatility than normal at 4pm ET, but up until that point, 10yr yields had rallied roughly 8bps. Those gains were fueled by headlines that spoke to potential de-escalation in Iran--something that's easy enough to confirm by examining the corresponding drop in oil prices and spike in stocks. That said, the underlying news falls short of marking a distinct
31st March, 26
Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 6.5%
Mortgage rates moved lower for the second straight day as markets responded to potential de-escalation in the Iran war. Rates are based on bonds and bonds improved overnight as The President said the war could end even if the Strait of Hormuz was not yet reopened. Additional improvement followed during domestic hours based on headlines that suggested Iranian officials were "ready to end the war." The market reaction might have been bigger had those claims not been contingent on Iran wanting "certain guarantees." They also came from Iran's President and not the Supreme Leader. Still
Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 6.5%
Mortgage rates moved lower for the second straight day as markets responded to potential de-escalation in the Iran war. Rates are based on bonds and bonds improved overnight as The President said the war could end even if the Strait of Hormuz was not yet reopened. Additional improvement followed during domestic hours based on headlines that suggested Iranian officials were "ready to end the war." The market reaction might have been bigger had those claims not been contingent on Iran wanting "certain guarantees." They also came from Iran's President and not the Supreme Leader. Still
31st March, 26
BBYS, Cybersecurity, AI Assistant Tools; Non-Agency News; STRATMOR on Owning Servicing
Appraisal methodology and analysis have changed over the years, and we’re about to undergo another major alteration with UAD 3.6. Some investors are ahead of the 11/2/26 curve. For example, Newrez is now accepting loans from clients who have adopted the Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) 3.6 Appraisal and Forms Redesign and submitted via the Uniform Collateral Data Portal (UCDP) “for all conforming loans and non-QM loans (Smart Series). Government (FHA, VA, and USDA), JUMBO AUS and Closed-end seconds loans must continue using the UAD 2.6 appraisals.” This write up by AXIS AMC’s Mike
BBYS, Cybersecurity, AI Assistant Tools; Non-Agency News; STRATMOR on Owning Servicing
Appraisal methodology and analysis have changed over the years, and we’re about to undergo another major alteration with UAD 3.6. Some investors are ahead of the 11/2/26 curve. For example, Newrez is now accepting loans from clients who have adopted the Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) 3.6 Appraisal and Forms Redesign and submitted via the Uniform Collateral Data Portal (UCDP) “for all conforming loans and non-QM loans (Smart Series). Government (FHA, VA, and USDA), JUMBO AUS and Closed-end seconds loans must continue using the UAD 2.6 appraisals.” This write up by AXIS AMC’s Mike
31st March, 26
War Headlines Help Bond Recovery Continue
The focal point of the overnight news cycle was a report that administration officials said Trump is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Markets rallied nearly as much just before the open when Trump said the hard part is essentially done on the Iran war (and that other countries should just go take their own oil now, or buy it from the U.S.). The initial move took yields from 4.36 to 4.33 and the pre-open rally was 4.34 to 4.30--"moderate," but notable as it is happening on the day after an already big rally. War headlines remain in focus despite econ data
War Headlines Help Bond Recovery Continue
The focal point of the overnight news cycle was a report that administration officials said Trump is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Markets rallied nearly as much just before the open when Trump said the hard part is essentially done on the Iran war (and that other countries should just go take their own oil now, or buy it from the U.S.). The initial move took yields from 4.36 to 4.33 and the pre-open rally was 4.34 to 4.30--"moderate," but notable as it is happening on the day after an already big rally. War headlines remain in focus despite econ data
30th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Drop Meaningfully Over The Weekend
The bad news is that the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remains over 6.5% after being under 6% just a month ago. The good news is that rates recovered nicely over the weekend. By Friday afternoon, the average rate was 6.64%--the highest since August 2025--adding to a trend of rapid upward movement over the course of March. While there's no way to know if a bigger picture corner has been turned, it's a victory in the short term. Notably, the underlying bond market broke from its typical correlation with oil prices today. The latter has experienced severe volatility due to the Iran war,
Mortgage Rates Drop Meaningfully Over The Weekend
The bad news is that the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remains over 6.5% after being under 6% just a month ago. The good news is that rates recovered nicely over the weekend. By Friday afternoon, the average rate was 6.64%--the highest since August 2025--adding to a trend of rapid upward movement over the course of March. While there's no way to know if a bigger picture corner has been turned, it's a victory in the short term. Notably, the underlying bond market broke from its typical correlation with oil prices today. The latter has experienced severe volatility due to the Iran war,
30th March, 26
AI/LOS, Commercial Products; USDA, FHA, VA Changes; Interviews with Lennar's Escobar and Vesta's Yu
Do you remember when everyone was talking about the lack of housing inventory as a problem for buyers? Those days are long gone: There are now nearly 50 percent more home sellers than buyers as mismatch widens to a record 630,000. (Of course this is depending on price point and location.) And what they’re selling isn’t necessarily new: Per the American Community Survey, it seems that the median owner-occupied house is about 43 years old. As anyone from the building profession will tell you, at any given time the 5 L’s (labor, lots, laws, lumber, and lending) can create problems. Some
AI/LOS, Commercial Products; USDA, FHA, VA Changes; Interviews with Lennar's Escobar and Vesta's Yu
Do you remember when everyone was talking about the lack of housing inventory as a problem for buyers? Those days are long gone: There are now nearly 50 percent more home sellers than buyers as mismatch widens to a record 630,000. (Of course this is depending on price point and location.) And what they’re selling isn’t necessarily new: Per the American Community Survey, it seems that the median owner-occupied house is about 43 years old. As anyone from the building profession will tell you, at any given time the 5 L’s (labor, lots, laws, lumber, and lending) can create problems. Some
30th March, 26
Bonds Mostly Finding Their Own Buyers
There are three distinct reasons that could account for bonds paradoxically rallying overnight despite oil prices remaining high and an absence of meaningful de-escalation in the Iran war. The most notable development has been the correction in Fed Funds Futures that began on Friday morning and extended modestly into this morning. Less objectively quantifiable but still likely enough for us to call it out last week was pre-weekend positioning. Specifically, it has made good sense for bonds to be defensive heading into a weekend and recover on Monday if there was no major escalation. Last but
Bonds Mostly Finding Their Own Buyers
There are three distinct reasons that could account for bonds paradoxically rallying overnight despite oil prices remaining high and an absence of meaningful de-escalation in the Iran war. The most notable development has been the correction in Fed Funds Futures that began on Friday morning and extended modestly into this morning. Less objectively quantifiable but still likely enough for us to call it out last week was pre-weekend positioning. Specifically, it has made good sense for bonds to be defensive heading into a weekend and recover on Monday if there was no major escalation. Last but
27th March, 26
Some Resilience After AM Weakness
Some Resilience After AM Weakness 10yr yields are set to end the week at the highest levels since last July, but those were even higher highs earlier this morning. From roughly 9am-1130am ET, bonds recovered all of the day's losses in a move that was led by adjustments to Fed rate hike expectations. Yes, we can/should call it that now because there are no longer any rate cut expectations based on futures trading. Instead, there's indecision about holding steady vs a small chance of rate hikes. War headlines remain the dominant focus and weekends continue to offer a higher
Some Resilience After AM Weakness
Some Resilience After AM Weakness 10yr yields are set to end the week at the highest levels since last July, but those were even higher highs earlier this morning. From roughly 9am-1130am ET, bonds recovered all of the day's losses in a move that was led by adjustments to Fed rate hike expectations. Yes, we can/should call it that now because there are no longer any rate cut expectations based on futures trading. Instead, there's indecision about holding steady vs a small chance of rate hikes. War headlines remain the dominant focus and weekends continue to offer a higher