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6th March, 26
Oil Impact Ultimately Shunned in Favor of Jobs Report Implications
Oil Impact Ultimately Shunned in Favor of Jobs Report Implications It was a super interesting day for the bond market. Yields rose to the week's highs overnight as oil prices continued to surge. We knew we'd get at least some sort of reaction to any big beat/miss in the jobs report and today's miss was certainly big. At first, the reaction was logical. Bond rallied. But the paradox set in quickly and yields hit new highs by 9:30am. Fed funds futures continued arguing for a bond rally, as did lowest S&P levels since November. One could say "bonds finally came to their senses," or "the
Oil Impact Ultimately Shunned in Favor of Jobs Report Implications
Oil Impact Ultimately Shunned in Favor of Jobs Report Implications It was a super interesting day for the bond market. Yields rose to the week's highs overnight as oil prices continued to surge. We knew we'd get at least some sort of reaction to any big beat/miss in the jobs report and today's miss was certainly big. At first, the reaction was logical. Bond rallied. But the paradox set in quickly and yields hit new highs by 9:30am. Fed funds futures continued arguing for a bond rally, as did lowest S&P levels since November. One could say "bonds finally came to their senses," or "the
6th March, 26
Volatile Crosscurrents Keep Mortgage Rates Relatively Flat
Before this morning's jobs report was released, mortgage rates were on track to end the week at their highest levels in several weeks. This was due to an ongoing mega-spike in oil prices spilling over to the bond market (higher oil = higher inflation implications, and bonds hate inflation). The jobs report saved the day, albeit in a morbid way. It was one of the weakest jobs reports in years with unemployment continuing to trend higher and the job count falling deeply into negative territory. The jobs market is the only thing as important to bonds as inflation, and job market weakness tends to
Volatile Crosscurrents Keep Mortgage Rates Relatively Flat
Before this morning's jobs report was released, mortgage rates were on track to end the week at their highest levels in several weeks. This was due to an ongoing mega-spike in oil prices spilling over to the bond market (higher oil = higher inflation implications, and bonds hate inflation). The jobs report saved the day, albeit in a morbid way. It was one of the weakest jobs reports in years with unemployment continuing to trend higher and the job count falling deeply into negative territory. The jobs market is the only thing as important to bonds as inflation, and job market weakness tends to
6th March, 26
Highest Refi Demand in 4 Years After Last Week's Rate Rally
Mortgage application activity surged last week in response to headlines of mortgage rates stably holding multi-year lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an increase of 11.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending February 27. Refi applications once again led the charge, jumping 14.3% from the previous week and 109% higher vs the same week one year ago. Conventional refi apps rose 20% for the week, marking the fourth consecutive weekly increase and the strongest pace since 2022. Purchase demand also strengthened. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6.1
Highest Refi Demand in 4 Years After Last Week's Rate Rally
Mortgage application activity surged last week in response to headlines of mortgage rates stably holding multi-year lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an increase of 11.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending February 27. Refi applications once again led the charge, jumping 14.3% from the previous week and 109% higher vs the same week one year ago. Conventional refi apps rose 20% for the week, marking the fourth consecutive weekly increase and the strongest pace since 2022. Purchase demand also strengthened. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6.1
6th March, 26
Verification Tool; Company and Training Webinars at Home; Capital Markets; Oil-Driven Inflation?
Officially winter ends on 3/19, as the Spring Equinox is 3/20. Most modern clocks these days auto-update when daylight savings begins/ends. So, Sunday morning I’ll be walking around my house thinking, “Wow... times have changed.” This Sunday many places will be changing their clocks and springing ahead. This will, once again, lead to the public asking politicians to do away with changing clocks, with stories of bad traffic and grumpy students. For something new, the Federal Reserve Board announced the termination of its 2018 enforcement action against Wells Fargo, following its
Verification Tool; Company and Training Webinars at Home; Capital Markets; Oil-Driven Inflation?
Officially winter ends on 3/19, as the Spring Equinox is 3/20. Most modern clocks these days auto-update when daylight savings begins/ends. So, Sunday morning I’ll be walking around my house thinking, “Wow... times have changed.” This Sunday many places will be changing their clocks and springing ahead. This will, once again, lead to the public asking politicians to do away with changing clocks, with stories of bad traffic and grumpy students. For something new, the Federal Reserve Board announced the termination of its 2018 enforcement action against Wells Fargo, following its
6th March, 26
Massive Miss in NFP. So Why Aren't Bonds Improving?
It's shaping up to be a frustrating day market watchers. Decades of experience tells us that bonds should rally fairly sharply on a day where nonfarm payrolls miss the forecast by the widest margin in more than a year. At -92k vs +59k, today fits that bill. And like you'd expect, bonds rallied sharply right at 8:30am ET. But the rally was short-lived and it's not a huge surprise. That's not a hindsight assessment either. It was actually our first analytical reaction. Reason being: the unemployment rate carries more weight than NFP these days, and it was only up to 4.4% from 4
Massive Miss in NFP. So Why Aren't Bonds Improving?
It's shaping up to be a frustrating day market watchers. Decades of experience tells us that bonds should rally fairly sharply on a day where nonfarm payrolls miss the forecast by the widest margin in more than a year. At -92k vs +59k, today fits that bill. And like you'd expect, bonds rallied sharply right at 8:30am ET. But the rally was short-lived and it's not a huge surprise. That's not a hindsight assessment either. It was actually our first analytical reaction. Reason being: the unemployment rate carries more weight than NFP these days, and it was only up to 4.4% from 4
5th March, 26
Dueling Narratives Leave Yields Higher Ahead of Jobs Report
Dueling Narrative Leave Yields Higher Ahead of Jobs Report In the overnight session yields followed oil prices higher, but notably, Treasuries continued to sell even after oil leveled off. Then during domestic hours, it was Treasuries' turn to level off while oil prices spiked. From 9am to 2pm, oil rose nearly $5/bbl while Treasury yields remained completely flat. One way to justify this would be via safe-haven demand from heavy stock losses, but we continue not loving that explanation because it is even less reliably correlated than bonds vs oil. At this point, we're simply hoping that
Dueling Narratives Leave Yields Higher Ahead of Jobs Report
Dueling Narrative Leave Yields Higher Ahead of Jobs Report In the overnight session yields followed oil prices higher, but notably, Treasuries continued to sell even after oil leveled off. Then during domestic hours, it was Treasuries' turn to level off while oil prices spiked. From 9am to 2pm, oil rose nearly $5/bbl while Treasury yields remained completely flat. One way to justify this would be via safe-haven demand from heavy stock losses, but we continue not loving that explanation because it is even less reliably correlated than bonds vs oil. At this point, we're simply hoping that
5th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Bounce Back Up Near Recent Highs
Mortgage rates bounced back up today as the underlying bond market continued the selling trend seen on 3 out of 4 days so far this week. In the overnight hours, bond yields (which generally correlate with mortgage rates) moved higher in concert with rising oil prices. That said, it would be a mistake to assume this is the only correlation in town. Oil prices continued to rise sharply during domestic hours, but bond yields remained flat--possibly benefiting from safe-haven demand following heavy losses in stocks. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is still under its recent highs, but
Mortgage Rates Bounce Back Up Near Recent Highs
Mortgage rates bounced back up today as the underlying bond market continued the selling trend seen on 3 out of 4 days so far this week. In the overnight hours, bond yields (which generally correlate with mortgage rates) moved higher in concert with rising oil prices. That said, it would be a mistake to assume this is the only correlation in town. Oil prices continued to rise sharply during domestic hours, but bond yields remained flat--possibly benefiting from safe-haven demand following heavy losses in stocks. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is still under its recent highs, but
5th March, 26
Wholesale, Best Ex, Verification Tools; Cybersecurity News and The Figure Incident; Capital Markets
Here in Park City, at the annual mortgage ski trip, some of the banter is social, and some is focused on business. On the business side of things, one topic is the nearly 1 million people impacted by hackers attacking Figure Technology Solutions, a blockchain-focused fintech lender. U.S. financial institutions are increasing cybersecurity vigilance amid the escalating war with Iran, with industry leaders warning that geopolitical conflict often brings a rise in digital threats. Todd Klessman, managing director for financial services cyber and technology at SIFMA, said, "The industry remains
Wholesale, Best Ex, Verification Tools; Cybersecurity News and The Figure Incident; Capital Markets
Here in Park City, at the annual mortgage ski trip, some of the banter is social, and some is focused on business. On the business side of things, one topic is the nearly 1 million people impacted by hackers attacking Figure Technology Solutions, a blockchain-focused fintech lender. U.S. financial institutions are increasing cybersecurity vigilance amid the escalating war with Iran, with industry leaders warning that geopolitical conflict often brings a rise in digital threats. Todd Klessman, managing director for financial services cyber and technology at SIFMA, said, "The industry remains
5th March, 26
10yr Breaking Above 4.10% After Overnight weakness
The bond market has already shown an indifference to this week's econ data as a market mover (even though we expect that to change with tomorrow's jobs report). This morning, however, the trend continues with stronger jobless claims and a big uptick in labor costs failing to inspire a reaction. But there has been movement. A steady wave of overnight selling pushed 10yr yields more than 3bps higher, easily breaking above the 4.10% technical level. Attempting to clearly connect that move to underlying motivation is an imperfect science, yet again. Oil prices and yields continue to correlate, but
10yr Breaking Above 4.10% After Overnight weakness
The bond market has already shown an indifference to this week's econ data as a market mover (even though we expect that to change with tomorrow's jobs report). This morning, however, the trend continues with stronger jobless claims and a big uptick in labor costs failing to inspire a reaction. But there has been movement. A steady wave of overnight selling pushed 10yr yields more than 3bps higher, easily breaking above the 4.10% technical level. Attempting to clearly connect that move to underlying motivation is an imperfect science, yet again. Oil prices and yields continue to correlate, but
4th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Move Back Down Despite Stronger Data
Economic data is one of the few consistent sources of motivation for interest rates in the mortgage world and beyond. In general, stronger data tends to push rates higher and vice versa. But in today's case, that correlation didn't pan out. The first of today's two important economic reports was ADP Employment. It was just barely stronger than expected, so it's no surprise that rates didn't react. The second report (ISM Services) was quite a bit stronger, with the headline index hitting its best levels since 2022. On a vast majority of other occasions, such a result would create some
Mortgage Rates Move Back Down Despite Stronger Data
Economic data is one of the few consistent sources of motivation for interest rates in the mortgage world and beyond. In general, stronger data tends to push rates higher and vice versa. But in today's case, that correlation didn't pan out. The first of today's two important economic reports was ADP Employment. It was just barely stronger than expected, so it's no surprise that rates didn't react. The second report (ISM Services) was quite a bit stronger, with the headline index hitting its best levels since 2022. On a vast majority of other occasions, such a result would create some