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20th July, 26
New Week. Same Old Story
New Week. Same Old Story While we certainly CAN put short term market movement under a microscope and entertain various potential sources of motivation, it's just as good to take a few giant steps back and observe the bigger picture trend. When we do, we see a decisively weaker trend since October 2025 with additional volatility and selling pressure after the start of the Iran war. Unsurprisingly resurgence of hostilities has put upward pressure on both fuel prices and bond yields. This is definitely one of those "under the microscope" market movers at the start of the week. There were also
New Week. Same Old Story
New Week. Same Old Story While we certainly CAN put short term market movement under a microscope and entertain various potential sources of motivation, it's just as good to take a few giant steps back and observe the bigger picture trend. When we do, we see a decisively weaker trend since October 2025 with additional volatility and selling pressure after the start of the Iran war. Unsurprisingly resurgence of hostilities has put upward pressure on both fuel prices and bond yields. This is definitely one of those "under the microscope" market movers at the start of the week. There were also
20th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Bouncing Higher to Start The Week
Last week ended on a promising note with Friday's rates falling just barely below the previous Friday's levels. This was a relief after the top-tier 30yr fixed rate matched 11-month highs for the average lender earlier in the week. Unfortunately, rates are starting the new week by heading back toward those highs. Our 30yr fixed rate index is up from 6.63% on Friday to 6.71% today. Many lenders raised rates in the middle of the day in response to weakness in the bond market. In general, that weakness is underpinned by renewed fighting in Iran (or more specifically, the effect of that fighting
Mortgage Rates Bouncing Higher to Start The Week
Last week ended on a promising note with Friday's rates falling just barely below the previous Friday's levels. This was a relief after the top-tier 30yr fixed rate matched 11-month highs for the average lender earlier in the week. Unfortunately, rates are starting the new week by heading back toward those highs. Our 30yr fixed rate index is up from 6.63% on Friday to 6.71% today. Many lenders raised rates in the middle of the day in response to weakness in the bond market. In general, that weakness is underpinned by renewed fighting in Iran (or more specifically, the effect of that fighting
20th July, 26
Verification, Servicing, Next-Gen, Flood Cert Products; AI and Overall Tech Adoption
Dang. I don’t know why I put my entire retirement plan into SpaceX stock… it has lost $1 trillion in book value since its post-IPO high. In 2026 Fannie’s stock price is down 44 percent, and Freddie’s stock price is down 46 percent. Did you sink your 401(k) into either, when doing a “re-IPO” was the talk of the Trump Administration? (Speaking of Fannie, rumors are flying that Fannie Lender Letter LL-2026-04 on AI will be followed by a more prescriptive framework.) One would hope that the industry has input into Freddie and Fannie’s activities. Mortgage leaders have limited
Verification, Servicing, Next-Gen, Flood Cert Products; AI and Overall Tech Adoption
Dang. I don’t know why I put my entire retirement plan into SpaceX stock… it has lost $1 trillion in book value since its post-IPO high. In 2026 Fannie’s stock price is down 44 percent, and Freddie’s stock price is down 46 percent. Did you sink your 401(k) into either, when doing a “re-IPO” was the talk of the Trump Administration? (Speaking of Fannie, rumors are flying that Fannie Lender Letter LL-2026-04 on AI will be followed by a more prescriptive framework.) One would hope that the industry has input into Freddie and Fannie’s activities. Mortgage leaders have limited
20th July, 26
No Major Data Leaves Bonds to Trade on Vibes
You've seen the "good vibes only" t-shirt perhaps? Bond traders left theirs at home this morning. That's unfortunate as there isn't much beyond vibes to set the tone this week. Over the weekend, bad vibes came courtesy of another round of escalation in the Iran war. Additionally, the safe-haven buying that helped bonds on Friday has reversed course somewhat as stocks find their footing. At 7:30am, news of a proposed 10-day ceasefire caused yields and fuel prices to drop quickly but not excessively. 30 minutes later, the move was reversed after Houthis declared a naval blockade against
No Major Data Leaves Bonds to Trade on Vibes
You've seen the "good vibes only" t-shirt perhaps? Bond traders left theirs at home this morning. That's unfortunate as there isn't much beyond vibes to set the tone this week. Over the weekend, bad vibes came courtesy of another round of escalation in the Iran war. Additionally, the safe-haven buying that helped bonds on Friday has reversed course somewhat as stocks find their footing. At 7:30am, news of a proposed 10-day ceasefire caused yields and fuel prices to drop quickly but not excessively. 30 minutes later, the move was reversed after Houthis declared a naval blockade against
17th July, 26
Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness
Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness Bonds ended the day roughly unchanged despite this morning's stronger start. With the S&P falling back to the lows of the day, we can't really blame asset allocation trading between stocks and bonds. It's easier to blame a mid-day surge in fuel prices (especially after 11am) which may have been related to headlines regarding U.S. missiles striking an oil tanker docked at Kharg Island. All told, it was still a victorious week with yields ending up slightly lower than last Friday. The week ahead is marked by limited data and the pre-FOMC blackout
Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness
Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness Bonds ended the day roughly unchanged despite this morning's stronger start. With the S&P falling back to the lows of the day, we can't really blame asset allocation trading between stocks and bonds. It's easier to blame a mid-day surge in fuel prices (especially after 11am) which may have been related to headlines regarding U.S. missiles striking an oil tanker docked at Kharg Island. All told, it was still a victorious week with yields ending up slightly lower than last Friday. The week ahead is marked by limited data and the pre-FOMC blackout
17th July, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows
The good news is that mortgage rates ended the day at their lowest levels of the week. That's welcome news after Monday's rates matched the highest seen since July 2025. Today's improvement came courtesy of weakness in the stock market, which is not necessarily a common or reliable source of inspiration for rates these days. But a majority of this week's drop is tied to back-to-back inflation reports coming in much lower than expected. The bad news goes back to the long-term highs seen on Monday. In a short-term context, we've definitely seen solid improvement since then. In the bigger
Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows
The good news is that mortgage rates ended the day at their lowest levels of the week. That's welcome news after Monday's rates matched the highest seen since July 2025. Today's improvement came courtesy of weakness in the stock market, which is not necessarily a common or reliable source of inspiration for rates these days. But a majority of this week's drop is tied to back-to-back inflation reports coming in much lower than expected. The bad news goes back to the long-term highs seen on Monday. In a short-term context, we've definitely seen solid improvement since then. In the bigger
17th July, 26
Housing Starts Snap Back as May's Multifamily Drop Proves Short-Lived
Residential construction rebounded in June as housing starts and completions recovered from May's unusually weak levels, though building permits continued to trend lower. The latest Census Bureau data suggests that while builders remain cautious about future projects, construction activity itself regained momentum after last month's sharp pullback. Privately owned housing starts jumped 19.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million , reversing much of May's decline and coming in 3.5% above the June 2025 pace. The headline increase was driven almost entirely by multifamily
Housing Starts Snap Back as May's Multifamily Drop Proves Short-Lived
Residential construction rebounded in June as housing starts and completions recovered from May's unusually weak levels, though building permits continued to trend lower. The latest Census Bureau data suggests that while builders remain cautious about future projects, construction activity itself regained momentum after last month's sharp pullback. Privately owned housing starts jumped 19.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million , reversing much of May's decline and coming in 3.5% above the June 2025 pace. The headline increase was driven almost entirely by multifamily
17th July, 26
Pending Home Sales Decline But Remain Broadly Range-Bound
Pending home sales declined in June as elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices continued to weigh on buyer demand. The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, fell 5.4% from May and was down 0.3% compared with a year earlier. The latest report suggests affordability remains a significant hurdle for prospective buyers. While employment gains continue to support household finances, higher borrowing costs and elevated home prices have kept many buyers, particularly first-time purchasers, on the sidelines. “
Pending Home Sales Decline But Remain Broadly Range-Bound
Pending home sales declined in June as elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices continued to weigh on buyer demand. The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, fell 5.4% from May and was down 0.3% compared with a year earlier. The latest report suggests affordability remains a significant hurdle for prospective buyers. While employment gains continue to support household finances, higher borrowing costs and elevated home prices have kept many buyers, particularly first-time purchasers, on the sidelines. “
17th July, 26
Builder Confidence Remains Stuck Near Post-Recession Lows
Builder sentiment weakened further in July as affordability challenges and ongoing economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the market for new single-family homes. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) slipped two points to 34 , marking the 15th consecutive month the index has remained below 40--the longest such stretch since 2012. The latest reading reflects persistent headwinds for the industry, with elevated mortgage rates, rising material costs, expensive land and ongoing labor shortages continuing to limit both builder confidence and
Builder Confidence Remains Stuck Near Post-Recession Lows
Builder sentiment weakened further in July as affordability challenges and ongoing economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the market for new single-family homes. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) slipped two points to 34 , marking the 15th consecutive month the index has remained below 40--the longest such stretch since 2012. The latest reading reflects persistent headwinds for the industry, with elevated mortgage rates, rising material costs, expensive land and ongoing labor shortages continuing to limit both builder confidence and
17th July, 26
Higher Refi Demand Despite Higher Rates
Mortgage application volume declined again last week as higher borrowing costs weighed on home purchase demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 10, even as refinance activity posted a modest rebound. Purchase applications fell 7% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 2% lower than the same week one year ago, marking a pullback after purchase demand had outpaced year-ago levels in recent weeks. Refinance activity moved in the opposite direction, with the
Higher Refi Demand Despite Higher Rates
Mortgage application volume declined again last week as higher borrowing costs weighed on home purchase demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 10, even as refinance activity posted a modest rebound. Purchase applications fell 7% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 2% lower than the same week one year ago, marking a pullback after purchase demand had outpaced year-ago levels in recent weeks. Refinance activity moved in the opposite direction, with the