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13th November, 25
Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame
Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame The government reopened on Thursday. Both stocks and bonds sold off moderately in response. The bond market weakness is in line with our expectations for a confirmed reopening based on the simple logic that a prolonged shutdown would have been increasingly detrimental to economic growth. Comments from a few Fed speakers added fuel to the fire by calling a December rate cut into question. That said, assuming the big-ticket econ data is back up and running by then, the outcome of those reports will likely add clarity to rate cut
Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame
Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame The government reopened on Thursday. Both stocks and bonds sold off moderately in response. The bond market weakness is in line with our expectations for a confirmed reopening based on the simple logic that a prolonged shutdown would have been increasingly detrimental to economic growth. Comments from a few Fed speakers added fuel to the fire by calling a December rate cut into question. That said, assuming the big-ticket econ data is back up and running by then, the outcome of those reports will likely add clarity to rate cut
13th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Near The Top of Recent Range
Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply following the late October Fed meeting but have been in a relatively narrow range so far in November. The range is so narrow, in fact, that yesterday's average rate was at the bottom of that range while today's rate is closer to the highs. Given the minimal overall movement, there's no compelling need to account for underlying market motivations. To be sure, there was no new economic data that caused weakness in the underlying bond market. That leaves only the reopening of the government as a scapegoat. Several days ago, when the end of the shutdown
Mortgage Rates Near The Top of Recent Range
Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply following the late October Fed meeting but have been in a relatively narrow range so far in November. The range is so narrow, in fact, that yesterday's average rate was at the bottom of that range while today's rate is closer to the highs. Given the minimal overall movement, there's no compelling need to account for underlying market motivations. To be sure, there was no new economic data that caused weakness in the underlying bond market. That leaves only the reopening of the government as a scapegoat. Several days ago, when the end of the shutdown
13th November, 25
Data Intelligence, CTP Products; Compliance Warning About Thanksgiving; Another Fed President to Leave
In news underwriters will need to know, banks and satirists across the United States are taking Director Bill Pulte’s and President Donald Trump’s 50-year mortgage suggestion are running with it. They (the underwriters) would now require an applicant's grandkids to co-sign on a 50-year mortgage "just in case” as part of the approval equation. What happens when you leave out a key part of the equation? (Skip ahead to the two-minute mark for another chuckle.) The IT staffs of lenders and vendors are always on guard not to leave out any part of any equation, and they may have some interest
Data Intelligence, CTP Products; Compliance Warning About Thanksgiving; Another Fed President to Leave
In news underwriters will need to know, banks and satirists across the United States are taking Director Bill Pulte’s and President Donald Trump’s 50-year mortgage suggestion are running with it. They (the underwriters) would now require an applicant's grandkids to co-sign on a 50-year mortgage "just in case” as part of the approval equation. What happens when you leave out a key part of the equation? (Skip ahead to the two-minute mark for another chuckle.) The IT staffs of lenders and vendors are always on guard not to leave out any part of any equation, and they may have some interest
13th November, 25
Shutdown is Over. Don't Get Excited
First off, the market expected a shutdown resolution by mid November and especially since this past weekend. That's the reason today's news means essentially nothing in terms of being a surprise headline. On the data front, today is also meaningless in the short term. It's not as if the backlog of econ data will suddenly be released. The only exception is the September jobs report, which could still be released this week since it was largely ready to go before the shutdown. As for the initial reaction in bonds, it's been modestly weaker, as expected, but not weak enough
Shutdown is Over. Don't Get Excited
First off, the market expected a shutdown resolution by mid November and especially since this past weekend. That's the reason today's news means essentially nothing in terms of being a surprise headline. On the data front, today is also meaningless in the short term. It's not as if the backlog of econ data will suddenly be released. The only exception is the September jobs report, which could still be released this week since it was largely ready to go before the shutdown. As for the initial reaction in bonds, it's been modestly weaker, as expected, but not weak enough
12th November, 25
Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs
Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs While there were no big ticket economic reports on today's calendar, bonds came into the session with a tailwind from yesterday's weekly ADP payrolls data. Unlike the monthly numbers seen in last week's monthly ADP report (which showed a +42k increase in payrolls), yesterday's weekly numbers showed an 11k decline so far in November. Treasury futures (not closed for the holiday) reacted clearly and immediately. As a result, 10yr yields opened nearly 5bps lower this morning and managed to hold those gains throughout the session. Traders had
Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs
Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs While there were no big ticket economic reports on today's calendar, bonds came into the session with a tailwind from yesterday's weekly ADP payrolls data. Unlike the monthly numbers seen in last week's monthly ADP report (which showed a +42k increase in payrolls), yesterday's weekly numbers showed an 11k decline so far in November. Treasury futures (not closed for the holiday) reacted clearly and immediately. As a result, 10yr yields opened nearly 5bps lower this morning and managed to hold those gains throughout the session. Traders had
12th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Lower Despite Bond Market Improvement
Mortgage rates are based on bond market movement and bonds are much stronger today compared to Monday. Although bonds were closed yesterday for the Veterans Day holiday, there was an important piece of economic data that suggested lower rates today. The data in question was the new weekly payroll count from ADP. Whereas October's monthly data (which came out last week) suggested 42k new jobs created, yesterday's weekly data showed an 11k DECREASE in the payroll count. Decreases are uncommon outside recessions and recessions tend to push interest rates lower. The average lender moved down
Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Lower Despite Bond Market Improvement
Mortgage rates are based on bond market movement and bonds are much stronger today compared to Monday. Although bonds were closed yesterday for the Veterans Day holiday, there was an important piece of economic data that suggested lower rates today. The data in question was the new weekly payroll count from ADP. Whereas October's monthly data (which came out last week) suggested 42k new jobs created, yesterday's weekly data showed an 11k DECREASE in the payroll count. Decreases are uncommon outside recessions and recessions tend to push interest rates lower. The average lender moved down
12th November, 25
Non-QM, Broker, AMC, LO Survey Results; Warehouse Tools; Webinars and Training
Its dog eat dog in the ranks of the FHFA and Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. The question is, does anyone care, or is anyone surprised? We want to follow the law, right? Everyone knows that the Trump Administration fired the Inspector General and Fannie’s ethics staff. Now the Wall Street Journal reports that, “Fannie Mae Watchdogs Probed How Pulte Obtained Mortgage Records of Key Democrats… FHFA’s acting inspector general handed probe report to U.S. attorney office that had indicted New York Attorney General Letitia James.” “Fannie Mae watchdogs who were removed from their jobs had
Non-QM, Broker, AMC, LO Survey Results; Warehouse Tools; Webinars and Training
Its dog eat dog in the ranks of the FHFA and Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. The question is, does anyone care, or is anyone surprised? We want to follow the law, right? Everyone knows that the Trump Administration fired the Inspector General and Fannie’s ethics staff. Now the Wall Street Journal reports that, “Fannie Mae Watchdogs Probed How Pulte Obtained Mortgage Records of Key Democrats… FHFA’s acting inspector general handed probe report to U.S. attorney office that had indicted New York Attorney General Letitia James.” “Fannie Mae watchdogs who were removed from their jobs had
12th November, 25
Stronger Start Thanks to Weekly ADP Data
ADP has been in the monthly data game for a long time when it comes to payroll counts, but their weekly report is the new kid on the econ data block. The public has only had access for a few weeks and traders have wasted no time incorporating it into the inner circle of influential market movers. Perhaps this dynamic will fade after the government shutdown ends, but for now, it's big business (as evidenced by the market reaction in TSY futures during the Tuesday holiday). All of the gains on the screen this morning came courtesy of that data and bonds have been broadly flat since then
Stronger Start Thanks to Weekly ADP Data
ADP has been in the monthly data game for a long time when it comes to payroll counts, but their weekly report is the new kid on the econ data block. The public has only had access for a few weeks and traders have wasted no time incorporating it into the inner circle of influential market movers. Perhaps this dynamic will fade after the government shutdown ends, but for now, it's big business (as evidenced by the market reaction in TSY futures during the Tuesday holiday). All of the gains on the screen this morning came courtesy of that data and bonds have been broadly flat since then
10th November, 25
Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure
Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure Bonds were weaker in the overnight session with at least some of the blame presumably going to a sudden improvement in the prospects for reopening the government. To whatever extent that blame is merited, the rest of the week is increasingly interesting. Tuesday is fully closed due to the Veterans Day holiday. A House vote on a shutdown resolution could happen as early as Wednesday. Even if the vote is looking more like Thu/Fri, any headlines that clarify the timeline or the details could be tradeable events. Market
Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure
Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure Bonds were weaker in the overnight session with at least some of the blame presumably going to a sudden improvement in the prospects for reopening the government. To whatever extent that blame is merited, the rest of the week is increasingly interesting. Tuesday is fully closed due to the Veterans Day holiday. A House vote on a shutdown resolution could happen as early as Wednesday. Even if the vote is looking more like Thu/Fri, any headlines that clarify the timeline or the details could be tradeable events. Market
10th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Edge Higher But Remain in November Range
Mortgage rates went into the weekend with a small cushion thanks to movement in the bond market on Friday. Specifically, bonds improved after mortgage rates came out for the day. If the improvement had been sharper, mortgage lenders likely would have made a mid-day adjustment to slightly lower levels. The implication was that rates would have been slightly lower this morning if bonds managed to hold the same levels over the weekend. Unfortunately, bonds lost enough ground to overshadow Friday's cushion, just slightly. The net effect is an average top-tier 30yr fixed rate that is 0.02% higher
Mortgage Rates Edge Higher But Remain in November Range
Mortgage rates went into the weekend with a small cushion thanks to movement in the bond market on Friday. Specifically, bonds improved after mortgage rates came out for the day. If the improvement had been sharper, mortgage lenders likely would have made a mid-day adjustment to slightly lower levels. The implication was that rates would have been slightly lower this morning if bonds managed to hold the same levels over the weekend. Unfortunately, bonds lost enough ground to overshadow Friday's cushion, just slightly. The net effect is an average top-tier 30yr fixed rate that is 0.02% higher