Latest news
5th December, 25
Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure
Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure In the realm of market commentary, technicals are a vastly overused explanation for past movement, let alone for the prediction of future movement. In this week's case, however, the consolidation pattern in bond yields offers one of the only ways to understand the otherwise inexplicable selling pressure. Long story short, the weakness was just the right size and pace to complete the pattern heading into events with more power to inspire definitive reactions and lasting momentum. Econ Data / Events Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 53.3 vs 52 f'cast, 51.0 prev
Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure
Technicals Help Reconcile Selling Pressure In the realm of market commentary, technicals are a vastly overused explanation for past movement, let alone for the prediction of future movement. In this week's case, however, the consolidation pattern in bond yields offers one of the only ways to understand the otherwise inexplicable selling pressure. Long story short, the weakness was just the right size and pace to complete the pattern heading into events with more power to inspire definitive reactions and lasting momentum. Econ Data / Events Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 53.3 vs 52 f'cast, 51.0 prev
5th December, 25
Mortgage Rates Could See More Volatility Next Week
Average mortgage rates drifted slightly higher to end the week, though they remained under the levels seen on Monday and Tuesday. Even then, none of this week's movement was especially abrupt. That's interesting considering there was a decent amount of economic data throughout the week. It could be that the rate market is simply waiting for the heavier hitting events on the horizon. Next Tuesday's Job Openings data is on the watch list. It will be the first major October employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the same agency that publishes the big jobs report) since the end of
Mortgage Rates Could See More Volatility Next Week
Average mortgage rates drifted slightly higher to end the week, though they remained under the levels seen on Monday and Tuesday. Even then, none of this week's movement was especially abrupt. That's interesting considering there was a decent amount of economic data throughout the week. It could be that the rate market is simply waiting for the heavier hitting events on the horizon. Next Tuesday's Job Openings data is on the watch list. It will be the first major October employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the same agency that publishes the big jobs report) since the end of
5th December, 25
Mortgage Apps Ebb Despite Strongest Purchase Demand in Years
Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity edged 1.4% lower last week according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 28. Unadjusted applications were down sharply (33%) due to the holiday. The Refinance Index slipped 4% from the previous week but remains 109% higher than the same week one year ago—still a significant year-over-year improvement, even as borrowers appear to be waiting for lower rate levels before jumping in more aggressively. Purchase applications were more resilient, rising 3% seasonally adjusted. On an unadjusted basis, purchases
Mortgage Apps Ebb Despite Strongest Purchase Demand in Years
Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity edged 1.4% lower last week according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 28. Unadjusted applications were down sharply (33%) due to the holiday. The Refinance Index slipped 4% from the previous week but remains 109% higher than the same week one year ago—still a significant year-over-year improvement, even as borrowers appear to be waiting for lower rate levels before jumping in more aggressively. Purchase applications were more resilient, rising 3% seasonally adjusted. On an unadjusted basis, purchases
5th December, 25
Earned Equity, HELOC, CRM, AI Agent, DSCR Hedging Products; Conventional Conforming Changes
Recently I paid over $10 for a simple Oscar Mayer 12-ounce package of bacon. Jerome Powell, help me! Well, the U.S. Federal Reserve doesn’t set bacon prices, or things that come from China like rare earth metals, most of which I’ve never heard of but are apparently in my phone and car’s dashboard. Geopolitical tensions and export restrictions in China sending the prices of crucial metal components in electronics way up. The price of dysprosium is up to $910 per kilogram, triple the pre-export restrictions price. The price of terbium hit $3,700 per kilogram, quadruple the previous rate.
Earned Equity, HELOC, CRM, AI Agent, DSCR Hedging Products; Conventional Conforming Changes
Recently I paid over $10 for a simple Oscar Mayer 12-ounce package of bacon. Jerome Powell, help me! Well, the U.S. Federal Reserve doesn’t set bacon prices, or things that come from China like rare earth metals, most of which I’ve never heard of but are apparently in my phone and car’s dashboard. Geopolitical tensions and export restrictions in China sending the prices of crucial metal components in electronics way up. The price of dysprosium is up to $910 per kilogram, triple the pre-export restrictions price. The price of terbium hit $3,700 per kilogram, quadruple the previous rate.
5th December, 25
Inconsequential Data and Modest Movement
If there's one resounding theme in the bond market this week, it's that trading momentum marched to its own beat with almost zero regard for the available economic data. While this was a notable disconnect on Wednesday (little reaction to ADP/ISM), it's fairly easy to reconcile on a day like today where the PCE data is super stale (delayed release from September) and the only other report, Consumer Sentiment, rarely has an impact. In general, the past 5 days have marked a casual return to the prevailing range (or more appropriately, the prevailing trend channel), thus setting the
Inconsequential Data and Modest Movement
If there's one resounding theme in the bond market this week, it's that trading momentum marched to its own beat with almost zero regard for the available economic data. While this was a notable disconnect on Wednesday (little reaction to ADP/ISM), it's fairly easy to reconcile on a day like today where the PCE data is super stale (delayed release from September) and the only other report, Consumer Sentiment, rarely has an impact. In general, the past 5 days have marked a casual return to the prevailing range (or more appropriately, the prevailing trend channel), thus setting the
4th December, 25
Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data
Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data On multiple recent occasions, we've seen bonds make a moderate move on days with important economic reports, but not in response to those economic reports. Thursday was the latest example. The 8:30am jobless claims data was undoubtedly a tradeable event based on the big volume spike at the time, but the higher yields were already in place by the time the data came out. Moreover, there wasn't much of a response afterward. Bonds spent the rest of the day drifting sideways to slightly weaker, but still very much in the prevailing pre-Thanksgiving range (i.e.
Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data
Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data On multiple recent occasions, we've seen bonds make a moderate move on days with important economic reports, but not in response to those economic reports. Thursday was the latest example. The 8:30am jobless claims data was undoubtedly a tradeable event based on the big volume spike at the time, but the higher yields were already in place by the time the data came out. Moreover, there wasn't much of a response afterward. Bonds spent the rest of the day drifting sideways to slightly weaker, but still very much in the prevailing pre-Thanksgiving range (i.e.
4th December, 25
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Higher This Week
Today's mortgage rates a just a hair higher than yesterday's and although yesterday's rates were reasonably close to last Friday's, they were still definitely higher. That last assertion is at odds with some of the mortgage rate media coverage you may encounter today, but there's a logical reason. Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate survey every Thursday. It consists of an average of the rates from each of the previous 5 business days (Thursday through Wednesday). Thus, by the time it is reported, it is a fairly stale indication of rate movement if there's been any reasonable amount
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Higher This Week
Today's mortgage rates a just a hair higher than yesterday's and although yesterday's rates were reasonably close to last Friday's, they were still definitely higher. That last assertion is at odds with some of the mortgage rate media coverage you may encounter today, but there's a logical reason. Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate survey every Thursday. It consists of an average of the rates from each of the previous 5 business days (Thursday through Wednesday). Thus, by the time it is reported, it is a fairly stale indication of rate movement if there's been any reasonable amount
4th December, 25
Home Value, Due Diligence, AVM, Refi Products; Extensive HELOC, DSCR, Non-QM Product Changes
“No plan survives contact with the enemy.” While Freddie rolled out its AI plans, for some lenders, mortgage companies owned by builders, and the builders themselves, can sometimes be viewed as adversaries. In dealing with buyers of new homes, builders and their lender arm often adjust seller credits, par rates, and buy down programs. Builders, of course, don’t want to actually lower their prices since they want high comp prices for appraisals going forward. According to the Wall Street Journal, the nation’s largest homebuilders are giving buyers big concessions. The nation’s biggest
Home Value, Due Diligence, AVM, Refi Products; Extensive HELOC, DSCR, Non-QM Product Changes
“No plan survives contact with the enemy.” While Freddie rolled out its AI plans, for some lenders, mortgage companies owned by builders, and the builders themselves, can sometimes be viewed as adversaries. In dealing with buyers of new homes, builders and their lender arm often adjust seller credits, par rates, and buy down programs. Builders, of course, don’t want to actually lower their prices since they want high comp prices for appraisals going forward. According to the Wall Street Journal, the nation’s largest homebuilders are giving buyers big concessions. The nation’s biggest
4th December, 25
Lowest Initial Jobless Claims Reading Since 2022
Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session, but the Jobless Claims data won't be any help. Initial claims fell to 191k--the lowest they've been since 2022 and one of the lowest readings since the 1960s. An isolated extreme in weekly data isn't worth as much market drama as a similarly extreme result in something like the big jobs report--especially when continued jobless claims aren't doing anything interesting--but at the very least, this argues against serious labor market concern. The Revelio payroll count of -9k came out 15 minutes later, and argues back in the other
Lowest Initial Jobless Claims Reading Since 2022
Bonds were already slightly weaker in the overnight session, but the Jobless Claims data won't be any help. Initial claims fell to 191k--the lowest they've been since 2022 and one of the lowest readings since the 1960s. An isolated extreme in weekly data isn't worth as much market drama as a similarly extreme result in something like the big jobs report--especially when continued jobless claims aren't doing anything interesting--but at the very least, this argues against serious labor market concern. The Revelio payroll count of -9k came out 15 minutes later, and argues back in the other
3rd December, 25
Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally
Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally Who knows how today would have ended up if the relevant econ data had come in stronger than expected. Perhaps that would have been enough to see an earlier, more threatening sell-off in bonds. As it stands, we're heading out the door with moderate gains, even if we can't give clear credit to the data (because the gains happened before the data). Thursday brings another chance to see if different data (Jobless Claims, Challenger Layoffs, Revelio payrolls) will be worth any more of a response. Otherwise bonds are just grinding out a range ahead of next
Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally
Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally Who knows how today would have ended up if the relevant econ data had come in stronger than expected. Perhaps that would have been enough to see an earlier, more threatening sell-off in bonds. As it stands, we're heading out the door with moderate gains, even if we can't give clear credit to the data (because the gains happened before the data). Thursday brings another chance to see if different data (Jobless Claims, Challenger Layoffs, Revelio payrolls) will be worth any more of a response. Otherwise bonds are just grinding out a range ahead of next