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23rd July, 26
Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives
Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives Oil lurched higher again overnight which kept generalized pressure on the bond market and the Fed rate outlook. The nearness to long-term highs had traders feeling very reluctant to step in and "buy the dip" in bond prices. This is the kind of move you'd rather see play out in full before reloading TSY longs. Complicating factors included earnings season (and the prospect for corporate issuance detracting from TSY/MBS demand), pre-ECB defensiveness, and MBS-specific underperformance. The latter could simply be the result of a line in the sand being
Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives
Bonds Not Keen To Catch Falling Knives Oil lurched higher again overnight which kept generalized pressure on the bond market and the Fed rate outlook. The nearness to long-term highs had traders feeling very reluctant to step in and "buy the dip" in bond prices. This is the kind of move you'd rather see play out in full before reloading TSY longs. Complicating factors included earnings season (and the prospect for corporate issuance detracting from TSY/MBS demand), pre-ECB defensiveness, and MBS-specific underperformance. The latter could simply be the result of a line in the sand being
23rd July, 26
Highest Rates in Over a Year, But There's a Silver Lining
Mortgage moved higher today, and while the jump was no larger than the one seen on Monday, both were 'above average' and both took rates in the wrong direction. In addition, the steady weakness throughout the month of July finally resulted in yesterday's rates match the highest level in nearly a year. In other words, it wouldn't have taken much of a jump for today's rates to be the highest in more than a year. Our daily 30yr fixed rate index rose from 6.77% yesterday to 6.85% today--the highest since June 23rd, 2025. But here's the silver lining: July 2025 through February 2026 was
Highest Rates in Over a Year, But There's a Silver Lining
Mortgage moved higher today, and while the jump was no larger than the one seen on Monday, both were 'above average' and both took rates in the wrong direction. In addition, the steady weakness throughout the month of July finally resulted in yesterday's rates match the highest level in nearly a year. In other words, it wouldn't have taken much of a jump for today's rates to be the highest in more than a year. Our daily 30yr fixed rate index rose from 6.77% yesterday to 6.85% today--the highest since June 23rd, 2025. But here's the silver lining: July 2025 through February 2026 was
23rd July, 26
Hedging, VantageScore 4.0, AI Accounting, Non-QM, Reverse Products; Higher Oil, Higher Rates
There are only twelve (12) legislative days left until the November election, and today on The Big Picture attorney Mitch Kider and I will discuss what that means for lenders as well as other regulatory topics. Rates aren’t doing much. Deals continue to happen as the big get bigger (the latest example being Union Home buying AmeriTrust to shoot for $20 billion a year; Rocket closed on a multibillion-dollar credit agreement with JPMorganChase that will replace the facility it took out while two of its large acquisitions were pending last year) and lawsuits are filed, and are resolved (the
Hedging, VantageScore 4.0, AI Accounting, Non-QM, Reverse Products; Higher Oil, Higher Rates
There are only twelve (12) legislative days left until the November election, and today on The Big Picture attorney Mitch Kider and I will discuss what that means for lenders as well as other regulatory topics. Rates aren’t doing much. Deals continue to happen as the big get bigger (the latest example being Union Home buying AmeriTrust to shoot for $20 billion a year; Rocket closed on a multibillion-dollar credit agreement with JPMorganChase that will replace the facility it took out while two of its large acquisitions were pending last year) and lawsuits are filed, and are resolved (the
23rd July, 26
Bearish Breakout For All The Normal Reasons
Welcome to post-Iran-War 2026. The only real relief for bonds since then was seen in June when there was hope that the war was over or at least winding down. Gas prices are back to multi-year highs. Inflation fears are back at the forefront. Even the ECB is flagging rate hike risks that could play out by the end of the year. This morning is seeing more of the same in terms of another pop in oil prices push yields higher overnight followed by additional selling in early domestic trading. Technicals could be adding emphasis given the breakout of various support levels. The ECB announcement
Bearish Breakout For All The Normal Reasons
Welcome to post-Iran-War 2026. The only real relief for bonds since then was seen in June when there was hope that the war was over or at least winding down. Gas prices are back to multi-year highs. Inflation fears are back at the forefront. Even the ECB is flagging rate hike risks that could play out by the end of the year. This morning is seeing more of the same in terms of another pop in oil prices push yields higher overnight followed by additional selling in early domestic trading. Technicals could be adding emphasis given the breakout of various support levels. The ECB announcement
22nd July, 26
Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds
Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds Bonds had a bad day for the 3rd time this week. The weakness was reasonable in light of fuel prices hitting the highest level since 2022 by some measures. That said, the intraday correlation between bonds and oil/gas/etc wasn't overly compelling. We continue to view oil as a bad actor in the background--something that adds general pressure via the inflation outlook. Nitty gritty market movers require conjecture today. The only thing jumping off the screen was a vertical leap by the short end of the curve between 9:30am-10:00am ET. The timing
Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds
Just Another Reasonably Bad Day For Bonds Bonds had a bad day for the 3rd time this week. The weakness was reasonable in light of fuel prices hitting the highest level since 2022 by some measures. That said, the intraday correlation between bonds and oil/gas/etc wasn't overly compelling. We continue to view oil as a bad actor in the background--something that adds general pressure via the inflation outlook. Nitty gritty market movers require conjecture today. The only thing jumping off the screen was a vertical leap by the short end of the curve between 9:30am-10:00am ET. The timing
22nd July, 26
Mortgage Rates Inch Up to 11-Month High
We have bad news and slightly less bad news. Starting with the latter, today's mortgage rates are only marginally higher than they were yesterday with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate up 0.02%. The bad news is that this takes our rate index to 6.77%--the highest level since July 28th, 2025. Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and bonds remain under pressure from a renewed surge in fuel prices. Specifically, higher fuel prices and additional uncertainty about the Iran war increase inflation expectations, and it's inflation that is the actual thorn in the bond market's side.
Mortgage Rates Inch Up to 11-Month High
We have bad news and slightly less bad news. Starting with the latter, today's mortgage rates are only marginally higher than they were yesterday with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate up 0.02%. The bad news is that this takes our rate index to 6.77%--the highest level since July 28th, 2025. Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and bonds remain under pressure from a renewed surge in fuel prices. Specifically, higher fuel prices and additional uncertainty about the Iran war increase inflation expectations, and it's inflation that is the actual thorn in the bond market's side.
22nd July, 26
Servicing, Non-Agency, AI Processing Tools; Condo Turmoil Ahead?
There’s always something in the news, whether it is Jimothy the raccoon in the Northwest, or the Canadian wildfire smoke in the Northeast which coincided with more tariffs directed at Canada. Homebuilders, and those who lend to them, know that materials from Canada are already subject to tariffs, but the new tariffs could affect building materials such as (primarily) cement, doors, heating and ventilation equipment, glass, and plywood products. Speaking of building, the artificial intelligence boom in the United States is being matched by a data center building boom. There are more than 3,
Servicing, Non-Agency, AI Processing Tools; Condo Turmoil Ahead?
There’s always something in the news, whether it is Jimothy the raccoon in the Northwest, or the Canadian wildfire smoke in the Northeast which coincided with more tariffs directed at Canada. Homebuilders, and those who lend to them, know that materials from Canada are already subject to tariffs, but the new tariffs could affect building materials such as (primarily) cement, doors, heating and ventilation equipment, glass, and plywood products. Speaking of building, the artificial intelligence boom in the United States is being matched by a data center building boom. There are more than 3,
22nd July, 26
Just a Bit Weaker as Oil Keeps Rising
For those not interested in overcomplicating things, it's fair enough to simply observe the resurgence of hostilities in the Iran war prompting a resurgence of fuel prices and bond selling due to inflation expectations. Earnings season in equities has added to volatility in the 9:30am-10am hour on each of the past 2 mornings. We seem to be breaking from that trend today, but stock/bond volatility could easily return for better or worse. Last but not least, there are ultra-big-picture strategic considerations that may be having an impact at a glacial pace in the background. The latest example
Just a Bit Weaker as Oil Keeps Rising
For those not interested in overcomplicating things, it's fair enough to simply observe the resurgence of hostilities in the Iran war prompting a resurgence of fuel prices and bond selling due to inflation expectations. Earnings season in equities has added to volatility in the 9:30am-10am hour on each of the past 2 mornings. We seem to be breaking from that trend today, but stock/bond volatility could easily return for better or worse. Last but not least, there are ultra-big-picture strategic considerations that may be having an impact at a glacial pace in the background. The latest example
21st July, 26
Headwinds, Cont'd
Headwinds, Cont'd "Headwinds, Cont'd" could be apply to the entirety of 2022-2026 or just March-July of 2026. But let's just focus on today's installment. For the second day this week, there wasn't any stellar correlation between bonds and other markets, econ data, or news headlines. Still, we wouldn't say that today's moderate weakness was a mystery move. In fact, it may even be fairly straightforward. Fuel prices came into the week at the highest level since May 19th (which was the highest since 2022). Front month oil futures spiked in the early AM hours and the peak coincided with the peak
Headwinds, Cont'd
Headwinds, Cont'd "Headwinds, Cont'd" could be apply to the entirety of 2022-2026 or just March-July of 2026. But let's just focus on today's installment. For the second day this week, there wasn't any stellar correlation between bonds and other markets, econ data, or news headlines. Still, we wouldn't say that today's moderate weakness was a mystery move. In fact, it may even be fairly straightforward. Fuel prices came into the week at the highest level since May 19th (which was the highest since 2022). Front month oil futures spiked in the early AM hours and the peak coincided with the peak
21st July, 26
Rates Match Longer-Term High For The 3rd Time in 2026
In late July, 2025, 30yr fixed rates embarked on an excellent adventure, moving down from 6.75% on July 31st to 5.99% by late February, 2026. Since then, things haven't been great thanks to war-related fuel price drama and stronger econ data (the supreme court ruling on tariffs didn't help either, because it increased Treasury issuance implications). Regardless of motivations, the net effect was a return to 6.75% on May 19th, 2026. Momentum has been fairly sideways since then, with the 6.75% level being revisited last Monday and now again today. For those who want to keep the analysis
Rates Match Longer-Term High For The 3rd Time in 2026
In late July, 2025, 30yr fixed rates embarked on an excellent adventure, moving down from 6.75% on July 31st to 5.99% by late February, 2026. Since then, things haven't been great thanks to war-related fuel price drama and stronger econ data (the supreme court ruling on tariffs didn't help either, because it increased Treasury issuance implications). Regardless of motivations, the net effect was a return to 6.75% on May 19th, 2026. Momentum has been fairly sideways since then, with the 6.75% level being revisited last Monday and now again today. For those who want to keep the analysis