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15th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Fall to Lowest Levels in a Week
Mortgage rates moved lower again today following another lower-than-expected reading on an inflation report. Yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) had a bigger impact on the underlying bond market, but today's Producer Price Index (PPI) wasn't far behind. Additionally, bonds did a better job of holding onto the improvement into the afternoon hours. This allowed mortgage lenders to drop rates even more than they did yesterday (0.06% today versus 0.05% yesterday). This takes the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% which is the lowest in just over a week. [thirtyyearmortgagerates
Mortgage Rates Fall to Lowest Levels in a Week
Mortgage rates moved lower again today following another lower-than-expected reading on an inflation report. Yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) had a bigger impact on the underlying bond market, but today's Producer Price Index (PPI) wasn't far behind. Additionally, bonds did a better job of holding onto the improvement into the afternoon hours. This allowed mortgage lenders to drop rates even more than they did yesterday (0.06% today versus 0.05% yesterday). This takes the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% which is the lowest in just over a week. [thirtyyearmortgagerates
15th July, 26
Home Equity, Verification, Asset-Based Lending, MI Tools; Housing Demand Shift; Fed Balance Sheet Thoughts
Certainly the cost gap between renting and owning is widening, and the press is filled with stories that our borrowers see, and MLOs should read, like, “Rent vs. Buy: Is Renting Cheaper Than Buying a Home?” or “Rent or buy? How long it takes for buying a home to pay off in each metro.” Today at 11AM PT on L1’s Mortgage Matters, Developer’s Mortgage COO Taylor Stork discusses lender challenges. Lenders are scrambling to target borrowers “at the top of the funnel, and today at noon PT the Credit Committee, presented by Equifax, David Hadaway, the CEO of Altair Data Resources, to
Home Equity, Verification, Asset-Based Lending, MI Tools; Housing Demand Shift; Fed Balance Sheet Thoughts
Certainly the cost gap between renting and owning is widening, and the press is filled with stories that our borrowers see, and MLOs should read, like, “Rent vs. Buy: Is Renting Cheaper Than Buying a Home?” or “Rent or buy? How long it takes for buying a home to pay off in each metro.” Today at 11AM PT on L1’s Mortgage Matters, Developer’s Mortgage COO Taylor Stork discusses lender challenges. Lenders are scrambling to target borrowers “at the top of the funnel, and today at noon PT the Credit Committee, presented by Equifax, David Hadaway, the CEO of Altair Data Resources, to
15th July, 26
PPI Does Its Best CPI Impression. Bonds Like It
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is not normally a huge market mover, but it has its moments of moderate impact. Today is such a moment as PPI did its best to mimic yesterday's sharply lower CPI. There were also big revisions to previous months which brought annual PPI a full 1.0% lower from last month's initial reading (5.5% today vs a 6.0 previous reading, revised from 6.5% when initially reported). Fuel prices loom large in this data, as evidenced by Core monthly PPI at 0.2 vs 0.3. Unlike yesterday, most of today's shift was seen in revisions to previous months--especially May (headline
PPI Does Its Best CPI Impression. Bonds Like It
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is not normally a huge market mover, but it has its moments of moderate impact. Today is such a moment as PPI did its best to mimic yesterday's sharply lower CPI. There were also big revisions to previous months which brought annual PPI a full 1.0% lower from last month's initial reading (5.5% today vs a 6.0 previous reading, revised from 6.5% when initially reported). Fuel prices loom large in this data, as evidenced by Core monthly PPI at 0.2 vs 0.3. Unlike yesterday, most of today's shift was seen in revisions to previous months--especially May (headline
14th July, 26
Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today?
Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today? If you missed this morning's commentary, the gist is that inflation for June (via the CPI report) came in much lower than forecast (biggest "miss" in over a year). Given the market's preoccupation with inflation, this logically resulted in an immediate bond rally. 10yr yields only ended up a few bps lower by the end of the day. There are 3 key reasons. The first is purely mechanical and it has to do with the shorter-term rates benefitting the most. Fed Funds Futures did the best with the end-of-year implied rate falling an eighth of a point (or
Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today?
Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today? If you missed this morning's commentary, the gist is that inflation for June (via the CPI report) came in much lower than forecast (biggest "miss" in over a year). Given the market's preoccupation with inflation, this logically resulted in an immediate bond rally. 10yr yields only ended up a few bps lower by the end of the day. There are 3 key reasons. The first is purely mechanical and it has to do with the shorter-term rates benefitting the most. Fed Funds Futures did the best with the end-of-year implied rate falling an eighth of a point (or
14th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Stage Moderate Recovery From Long-Term Highs
Our daily 30yr fixed rate index hit 6.75% yesterday. This matched the high from May 19th and is the highest level since late July 29, 2025. The key contributor to the recent spike has been the uptick in fuel prices in July combined with the fact that rates never made it any lower than 6.52% over the past 2 months. In other words, we were already in a high range and the uptick in fuel prices simply gave rates a push. Heading into today, we knew there was potential volatility associated with 2 events: Fed Chair Warsh's congressional testimony and the monthly release of the Consumer Price Index (
Mortgage Rates Stage Moderate Recovery From Long-Term Highs
Our daily 30yr fixed rate index hit 6.75% yesterday. This matched the high from May 19th and is the highest level since late July 29, 2025. The key contributor to the recent spike has been the uptick in fuel prices in July combined with the fact that rates never made it any lower than 6.52% over the past 2 months. In other words, we were already in a high range and the uptick in fuel prices simply gave rates a push. Heading into today, we knew there was potential volatility associated with 2 events: Fed Chair Warsh's congressional testimony and the monthly release of the Consumer Price Index (
14th July, 26
CRA, Call Report, Non-QM U/W Tools; ROAD to Housing Bill Viewed; Immigration and Credit Reminder
Ever heard someone say something that was blatantly misleading? On July 16, at 2PM ET, you can race to buy one of Olive Garden’s 10,000 “Never Ending Pasta Passes.” But it does end, after 13 weeks. Yup, for $100 you can economically gain a lot of weight, since it’s in our DNA to do so. Speaking of DNA, do you really think that it is in the DNA of retail companies like Guild, American Pacific, Movement, CrossCountry, etc., to stop expanding? Nope, they’ll keep going, and if you want to know the mindset of a lender that doubled its purchase business from last year, listen to the
CRA, Call Report, Non-QM U/W Tools; ROAD to Housing Bill Viewed; Immigration and Credit Reminder
Ever heard someone say something that was blatantly misleading? On July 16, at 2PM ET, you can race to buy one of Olive Garden’s 10,000 “Never Ending Pasta Passes.” But it does end, after 13 weeks. Yup, for $100 you can economically gain a lot of weight, since it’s in our DNA to do so. Speaking of DNA, do you really think that it is in the DNA of retail companies like Guild, American Pacific, Movement, CrossCountry, etc., to stop expanding? Nope, they’ll keep going, and if you want to know the mindset of a lender that doubled its purchase business from last year, listen to the
14th July, 26
Strong Start After Sharply Lower CPI
The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI was more sharply negative than expected at -0.4 vs a -0.1 forecast. Supercore (which excludes housing) was down -0.2 which is the first negative reading in over a year. Core goods also remained in negative territory for a second straight month. Bonds rallied instantly, led by the short end of the curve (more closely tied to Fed rate expectations). But even 10yr yields are down over 5bps and MBS are up more than 3/8ths of a point.
Strong Start After Sharply Lower CPI
The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI was more sharply negative than expected at -0.4 vs a -0.1 forecast. Supercore (which excludes housing) was down -0.2 which is the first negative reading in over a year. Core goods also remained in negative territory for a second straight month. Bonds rallied instantly, led by the short end of the curve (more closely tied to Fed rate expectations). But even 10yr yields are down over 5bps and MBS are up more than 3/8ths of a point.
13th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Near 1-Year Highs
Interest rates are based on bonds. Because the bonds underlying the average mortgage are fixed rate, inflation is the enemy. Imagine you're an investor fronting the money for a fixed-rate mortgage. You know your schedule of payments from day one. Let's say the payment is $5 or enough to buy a dozen eggs. Now let's say inflation raises the price of those eggs to $7. You're still only receiving $5 because you invested in a fixed-rate loan. Because of this dynamic, when inflation fears increase, investors demand higher rates of return. We're dealing with two inflation threats right now
Mortgage Rates Near 1-Year Highs
Interest rates are based on bonds. Because the bonds underlying the average mortgage are fixed rate, inflation is the enemy. Imagine you're an investor fronting the money for a fixed-rate mortgage. You know your schedule of payments from day one. Let's say the payment is $5 or enough to buy a dozen eggs. Now let's say inflation raises the price of those eggs to $7. You're still only receiving $5 because you invested in a fixed-rate loan. Because of this dynamic, when inflation fears increase, investors demand higher rates of return. We're dealing with two inflation threats right now
13th July, 26
Fraud Report, AMC, Non-QM Products, eNote News; ROAD to Housing Thoughts; Oil and Rates
Recently, MISMO released its new white paper, “From Paper to Performance: How eNotes and eClosing Streamline Liquidity,” providing guidance for originators, warehouse lenders, investors, and technology providers to implement digital mortgage solutions. Today at 10AM PT is Now Next Later, presented by Relcu, where Jeremy Potter and Eric Lapin are joined by Laura Kornhauser, CEO of Stratyfy, to discuss the evolving role of AI in mortgage and financial services. The conversation explores how lenders can use AI to improve risk assessment, strengthen decision making, and balance innovation with
Fraud Report, AMC, Non-QM Products, eNote News; ROAD to Housing Thoughts; Oil and Rates
Recently, MISMO released its new white paper, “From Paper to Performance: How eNotes and eClosing Streamline Liquidity,” providing guidance for originators, warehouse lenders, investors, and technology providers to implement digital mortgage solutions. Today at 10AM PT is Now Next Later, presented by Relcu, where Jeremy Potter and Eric Lapin are joined by Laura Kornhauser, CEO of Stratyfy, to discuss the evolving role of AI in mortgage and financial services. The conversation explores how lenders can use AI to improve risk assessment, strengthen decision making, and balance innovation with
13th July, 26
Weekend Weakness And Another Showdown With a Technical Ceiling
Bonds are weaker to start the new week and the catalyst is simple. The U.S. ramped up air strikes in Iran, both in terms of number and distance inland. Iran responded by hitting various allied targets. Perhaps more importantly for financial markets, shipping traffic has returned back to war-time lows after a noticeable surge in the 2nd half of June. Oil prices launched higher overnight and bond yields followed. Still, the market doesn't view these punches and counterpunches as a sign of perpetual war, but rather a negotiation strategy--at least for now. Were it otherwise, we'd be seeing
Weekend Weakness And Another Showdown With a Technical Ceiling
Bonds are weaker to start the new week and the catalyst is simple. The U.S. ramped up air strikes in Iran, both in terms of number and distance inland. Iran responded by hitting various allied targets. Perhaps more importantly for financial markets, shipping traffic has returned back to war-time lows after a noticeable surge in the 2nd half of June. Oil prices launched higher overnight and bond yields followed. Still, the market doesn't view these punches and counterpunches as a sign of perpetual war, but rather a negotiation strategy--at least for now. Were it otherwise, we'd be seeing