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2nd June, 26
Uncommonly Uneventful Day
Uncommonly Uneventful Day No one will accuse us of clickbait titles today, or even clickbait analysis. There's just not much to say. Unlike the average trading day of late, bonds held inside a very narrow range AND didn't visibly respond to any major Iran war news (and the typical oil price volatility that follows). Oil prices definitely moved a bit, and bond yields generally followed, but the range was well inside yesterday's. For a few minutes, it looked like bonds were going to struggle with the job openings data, but they quickly found their footing and drifted sideways into the close.
Uncommonly Uneventful Day
Uncommonly Uneventful Day No one will accuse us of clickbait titles today, or even clickbait analysis. There's just not much to say. Unlike the average trading day of late, bonds held inside a very narrow range AND didn't visibly respond to any major Iran war news (and the typical oil price volatility that follows). Oil prices definitely moved a bit, and bond yields generally followed, but the range was well inside yesterday's. For a few minutes, it looked like bonds were going to struggle with the job openings data, but they quickly found their footing and drifted sideways into the close.
2nd June, 26
Mortgage Rates Move Modestly Lower
It was an uneventful day for the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates. Unlike the average trading day of late, there were no conspicuous war-related headlines making for shocks to oil prices. Since the start of the war, interest rates have had a strong correlation with oil prices due to inflation implications. That correlation was present today, but oil moved lower and higher well inside yesterday's range. Top tier 30yr fixed rates fell from 6.60 to 6.57% for the average lender. This is very close to the lowest level in more than 2 weeks (6.56% seen last Friday).
Mortgage Rates Move Modestly Lower
It was an uneventful day for the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates. Unlike the average trading day of late, there were no conspicuous war-related headlines making for shocks to oil prices. Since the start of the war, interest rates have had a strong correlation with oil prices due to inflation implications. That correlation was present today, but oil moved lower and higher well inside yesterday's range. Top tier 30yr fixed rates fell from 6.60 to 6.57% for the average lender. This is very close to the lowest level in more than 2 weeks (6.56% seen last Friday).
2nd June, 26
Verification, AI Automation, MERS Audit, Lead Source Products; Webinars and Training
Those in the Northern Hemisphere are moving toward summertime already, it being June. The calendar is always changing, as is the corporate landscape. “Rob, I know that Model Match, RETR, MMI, and Ingenius put out a lot of research regarding housing. Does anyone do it for builders, or commercial real estate?” Yes, Zonda, and now the company is being purchased by CoStar Group; and the acquisition will add to the home building industry’s top B2B information platform. Yesterday was Taylor Morrison/Berkshire Hathaway, and before that was Xactus buying Mortgage Credit Link (MCL) from
Verification, AI Automation, MERS Audit, Lead Source Products; Webinars and Training
Those in the Northern Hemisphere are moving toward summertime already, it being June. The calendar is always changing, as is the corporate landscape. “Rob, I know that Model Match, RETR, MMI, and Ingenius put out a lot of research regarding housing. Does anyone do it for builders, or commercial real estate?” Yes, Zonda, and now the company is being purchased by CoStar Group; and the acquisition will add to the home building industry’s top B2B information platform. Yesterday was Taylor Morrison/Berkshire Hathaway, and before that was Xactus buying Mortgage Credit Link (MCL) from
2nd June, 26
Temporary Jolt From JOLTS as War Focus Remains
We saw big ticket econ data move the needle a bit last week and have thus been prepared for this week's big ticket reports to have a similar chance to cause volatility. For a few moments this morning, that proved to be the case after job openings jumped by the highest amount since early 2021 and hit the highest levels since late 2025. In relative terms, it was the largest percent change since 2015 outside the initial pandemic whipsaw in 2020. Given those details, the initial selling of roughly 1bp in 10yr yields seems pretty mild (and it is). Moreover, bonds have already mostly bounced back to
Temporary Jolt From JOLTS as War Focus Remains
We saw big ticket econ data move the needle a bit last week and have thus been prepared for this week's big ticket reports to have a similar chance to cause volatility. For a few moments this morning, that proved to be the case after job openings jumped by the highest amount since early 2021 and hit the highest levels since late 2025. In relative terms, it was the largest percent change since 2015 outside the initial pandemic whipsaw in 2020. Given those details, the initial selling of roughly 1bp in 10yr yields seems pretty mild (and it is). Moreover, bonds have already mostly bounced back to
1st June, 26
Yields End Higher Despite Some Mid-Day Solace
Yields End Higher Despite Some Mid-Day Solace As has been almost constantly the case for the past few months, today's ebbs and flows in the bond market were tightly tied to the Iran war news cycle. Yields spiked after AM headlines suggested Iran was not interested in negotiating as long as fighting continues between Israel and Lebanon. Bonds bounced back in a friendlier direction after mid-day news that Trump would talk to Netanyahu about de-escalating. Nothing conclusive came from that conversation by the 3pm ET close and 10yr yields remained roughly 3bps higher on the day. Tuesday's slate of
Yields End Higher Despite Some Mid-Day Solace
Yields End Higher Despite Some Mid-Day Solace As has been almost constantly the case for the past few months, today's ebbs and flows in the bond market were tightly tied to the Iran war news cycle. Yields spiked after AM headlines suggested Iran was not interested in negotiating as long as fighting continues between Israel and Lebanon. Bonds bounced back in a friendlier direction after mid-day news that Trump would talk to Netanyahu about de-escalating. Nothing conclusive came from that conversation by the 3pm ET close and 10yr yields remained roughly 3bps higher on the day. Tuesday's slate of
1st June, 26
Rates Pull Back Slightly
Following last week's relatively strong move to the lowest levels since May 14th, mortgage rates bounced slightly higher to start the news week. The move followed a clear shift in the Iran war news cycle with morning headlines citing Iranian officials saying the peace negotiation were effectively tabled as long as hostilities remained between Israel and Lebanon. As a refresher, the Iran war is bad for rates primarily due to the actual and implied impact on inflation due to higher fuel costs. Bonds dictate rates and bonds hate inflation. There was an immediate and moderately sharp reaction in
Rates Pull Back Slightly
Following last week's relatively strong move to the lowest levels since May 14th, mortgage rates bounced slightly higher to start the news week. The move followed a clear shift in the Iran war news cycle with morning headlines citing Iranian officials saying the peace negotiation were effectively tabled as long as hostilities remained between Israel and Lebanon. As a refresher, the Iran war is bad for rates primarily due to the actual and implied impact on inflation due to higher fuel costs. Bonds dictate rates and bonds hate inflation. There was an immediate and moderately sharp reaction in
1st June, 26
Non-QM, HELOC, AI, LOS, eVault Tools; Gov't Loan Program Changes; Investor Thoughts
While M&A continues (the latest example being Berkshire Hathaway buying homebuilder Taylor Morrison for $8.5 billion!), I find myself in San Juan Capistrano at the Insellerate Experience Summit but keeping an eye out for returning swallows. Lenders are keeping an eye out for loans: Although lenders generally had a good April and May, pipelines for June fundings and beyond appear to be down significantly. Insellerate’s Summit is focused on AI and tech. Mortgage has spent decades layering technology onto a system that still costs too much, moves too slowly, and frustrates nearly everyone
Non-QM, HELOC, AI, LOS, eVault Tools; Gov't Loan Program Changes; Investor Thoughts
While M&A continues (the latest example being Berkshire Hathaway buying homebuilder Taylor Morrison for $8.5 billion!), I find myself in San Juan Capistrano at the Insellerate Experience Summit but keeping an eye out for returning swallows. Lenders are keeping an eye out for loans: Although lenders generally had a good April and May, pipelines for June fundings and beyond appear to be down significantly. Insellerate’s Summit is focused on AI and tech. Mortgage has spent decades layering technology onto a system that still costs too much, moves too slowly, and frustrates nearly everyone
1st June, 26
Weaker Start as War News Cycle Shifts
Last week's focus for war-related headlines involved various attempts to hone in on just how close we were to a confirmed preliminary peace deal. The results were predictable with bonds moving to their lowest yields in weeks. The shoe is very much on the other foot to start the new week with headlines saying Iran is pulling out of peace talks until the Israel/Lebanon fighting ends. In addition, the IRGC is said to be taking control of diplomacy and threatening to re-block the strait. With that, 10yr yields jumped back up near the highest levels in over a week and MBS dropped a quick 3/8ths of
Weaker Start as War News Cycle Shifts
Last week's focus for war-related headlines involved various attempts to hone in on just how close we were to a confirmed preliminary peace deal. The results were predictable with bonds moving to their lowest yields in weeks. The shoe is very much on the other foot to start the new week with headlines saying Iran is pulling out of peace talks until the Israel/Lebanon fighting ends. In addition, the IRGC is said to be taking control of diplomacy and threatening to re-block the strait. With that, 10yr yields jumped back up near the highest levels in over a week and MBS dropped a quick 3/8ths of
29th May, 26
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct A few hours into the trading session, newswires came out that seemed to offer the best hopes of a peace deal yet. Specifically, it said that Trump was in the situation room to make a final determination on the peace deal and that issues required for the infamous one page memo had already been agreed upon. Markets were surprisingly cautious about reading too much into that, although it briefly took yields to their lowest levels of the week. By the end of the day, we learned that no decision had been made and
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct A few hours into the trading session, newswires came out that seemed to offer the best hopes of a peace deal yet. Specifically, it said that Trump was in the situation room to make a final determination on the peace deal and that issues required for the infamous one page memo had already been agreed upon. Markets were surprisingly cautious about reading too much into that, although it briefly took yields to their lowest levels of the week. By the end of the day, we learned that no decision had been made and
29th May, 26
Mortgage Rates Set to End Week Much Lower
While there are still a few hours left in the trading day, it's a near certainty that this week will end with mortgage rates at meaningfully lower levels compared to last Friday. Today is only adding modestly to that trend, but that makes it the 8th straight business day where rates have either held steady or moved lower. On that note, it's possibly worth considering that these sorts of winning streaks have definite life spans. We've certainly seen stretches of more than 10 business days without any upward movement in rates, but they're very rare. Even then, if the streak were to end on Monday
Mortgage Rates Set to End Week Much Lower
While there are still a few hours left in the trading day, it's a near certainty that this week will end with mortgage rates at meaningfully lower levels compared to last Friday. Today is only adding modestly to that trend, but that makes it the 8th straight business day where rates have either held steady or moved lower. On that note, it's possibly worth considering that these sorts of winning streaks have definite life spans. We've certainly seen stretches of more than 10 business days without any upward movement in rates, but they're very rare. Even then, if the streak were to end on Monday