Latest news
11th August, 26
HELOC, AI Processing Tools; STRATMOR on Subservicing; MISMO Role; RESPA Thoughts
What are folks talking about here at the Western Secondary? Small things and big things. There’s a brand-spankin’ new private MI company: Anza. (Contact Melissa Gemma with questions.) Lenders are doing interesting things to help communities: for example, here’s Fairway Independent not leaving a dry eye in the house. That UWM has filed a lawsuit in federal court regarding the Two Harbor/CrossCountry deal is no surprise, although $500 million is attention-grabbing. China unleashes $28 trillion (yeah, with a “t”) capital markets to challenge the United States. We’ve heard about
HELOC, AI Processing Tools; STRATMOR on Subservicing; MISMO Role; RESPA Thoughts
What are folks talking about here at the Western Secondary? Small things and big things. There’s a brand-spankin’ new private MI company: Anza. (Contact Melissa Gemma with questions.) Lenders are doing interesting things to help communities: for example, here’s Fairway Independent not leaving a dry eye in the house. That UWM has filed a lawsuit in federal court regarding the Two Harbor/CrossCountry deal is no surprise, although $500 million is attention-grabbing. China unleashes $28 trillion (yeah, with a “t”) capital markets to challenge the United States. We’ve heard about
11th August, 26
Stronger Start on Yet Another Peace Deal Teaser
Bonds are rallying, and we have no objection to that. Reasons are simple and familiar enough that there's no sense in over-analyzing them. Newswires hit at 7am saying that Pakistan's defense minister said "things are shaping up in favor of peace" and that Pakistan's interior minister Khawaja Asif arrived in Tehran to discuss "matters of mutual interest." Oil prices and bond yields are well versed in cautious reactions to such headlines. They're not ever going to cause a massive reaction, but just like the last 40-50 examples, they're enough for a noticeable but modest shift in trading levels.&
Stronger Start on Yet Another Peace Deal Teaser
Bonds are rallying, and we have no objection to that. Reasons are simple and familiar enough that there's no sense in over-analyzing them. Newswires hit at 7am saying that Pakistan's defense minister said "things are shaping up in favor of peace" and that Pakistan's interior minister Khawaja Asif arrived in Tehran to discuss "matters of mutual interest." Oil prices and bond yields are well versed in cautious reactions to such headlines. They're not ever going to cause a massive reaction, but just like the last 40-50 examples, they're enough for a noticeable but modest shift in trading levels.&
10th August, 26
Issuance and Oil Strike Back
Issuance and Oil Strike Back Oil prices continue to ebb and flow in concert with the Iran war news cycle. There's no set schedule for such things, but there have been several Mondays where that narrative shifts in the opposite direction from wherever we left off at the end of the previous week. Last Wednesday was a recent low for oil and prices have risen since then. Today's increase was a bit of an acceleration so it's no surprise to see bond yields follow. Bonds also saw some mid-day pressure from an active corporate debt issuance landscape, but it's just as fair to say both
Issuance and Oil Strike Back
Issuance and Oil Strike Back Oil prices continue to ebb and flow in concert with the Iran war news cycle. There's no set schedule for such things, but there have been several Mondays where that narrative shifts in the opposite direction from wherever we left off at the end of the previous week. Last Wednesday was a recent low for oil and prices have risen since then. Today's increase was a bit of an acceleration so it's no surprise to see bond yields follow. Bonds also saw some mid-day pressure from an active corporate debt issuance landscape, but it's just as fair to say both
10th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Rise Modestly From 3 Week Lows
As of last Friday, average top-tier mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since July 20th. If they'd managed to drop even 0.01% today, it would have been a new 3-week low. As it stands, rates moved modestly higher in response to higher oil prices. Throughout the Iran war, oil and rates have had a broadly strong correlation because oil informs inflation expectations and inflation is a key input for the rate market. Even after today's rise, rates remain much closer to the lower end of the range over the past 3 weeks. Logically, any positive developments in the war or diplomacy should
Mortgage Rates Rise Modestly From 3 Week Lows
As of last Friday, average top-tier mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since July 20th. If they'd managed to drop even 0.01% today, it would have been a new 3-week low. As it stands, rates moved modestly higher in response to higher oil prices. Throughout the Iran war, oil and rates have had a broadly strong correlation because oil informs inflation expectations and inflation is a key input for the rate market. Even after today's rise, rates remain much closer to the lower end of the range over the past 3 weeks. Logically, any positive developments in the war or diplomacy should
10th August, 26
Land Loan, Agentic AI Tools; Deep Dive Into Earnings; Pennymac's Spector on Servicing Value
Here in the hallways at the Western Secondary in L.A., there isn’t a lot of talk about GSE reform, although this short clip from Sam Valverde, ex-acting president of Ginnie Mae, revisits the subject: The GSE reform trigger nobody's watching closely enough. More of the talk is about 2nd quarter earnings, and I received this note: “Rob, I am a broker in Missouri. Last week there was a lot of news about UWM. All I try to do is help my clients. Why should I care about UWM’s earnings, or write downs on the value of their servicing, or losses on hedges?” Thank you for the note: see below for
Land Loan, Agentic AI Tools; Deep Dive Into Earnings; Pennymac's Spector on Servicing Value
Here in the hallways at the Western Secondary in L.A., there isn’t a lot of talk about GSE reform, although this short clip from Sam Valverde, ex-acting president of Ginnie Mae, revisits the subject: The GSE reform trigger nobody's watching closely enough. More of the talk is about 2nd quarter earnings, and I received this note: “Rob, I am a broker in Missouri. Last week there was a lot of news about UWM. All I try to do is help my clients. Why should I care about UWM’s earnings, or write downs on the value of their servicing, or losses on hedges?” Thank you for the note: see below for
10th August, 26
Another Week, Another Oil Price Pivot
Recent experience suggests the safest assumption about oil prices and bond yields is that they will pop and drop with reasonable regularity. In other words, lower prices/yields for a few days following friendly war-related headlines tend to give way to unfriendly headlines and a market reversal. Wash, rinse, repeat. The new week is starting off with unfriendly news and higher oil/yields. There's not much sense in attempting to dig any deeper on market analysis so far today
Another Week, Another Oil Price Pivot
Recent experience suggests the safest assumption about oil prices and bond yields is that they will pop and drop with reasonable regularity. In other words, lower prices/yields for a few days following friendly war-related headlines tend to give way to unfriendly headlines and a market reversal. Wash, rinse, repeat. The new week is starting off with unfriendly news and higher oil/yields. There's not much sense in attempting to dig any deeper on market analysis so far today
7th August, 26
Not Quite The Rally You'd Expect, But a Rally Nonetheless
Not Quite The Rally You'd Expect, But a Rally Nonetheless Today's vitals might be a bit confusing at first glance. Payrolls came in at -23k versus forecasts of 80k. At most moments in history, that would be worth a substantial rally. Today it was only worth 3bps in the 10yr and a quarter point in MBS. To be fair, it was worth even less without a late day drop in oil prices for unrelated reasons. But at this moment in history, low payroll counts are far more common and they're doing far less to influence the unemployment rate (case in point, today's FELL to 4.1% from 4.2%). This went a long way
Not Quite The Rally You'd Expect, But a Rally Nonetheless
Not Quite The Rally You'd Expect, But a Rally Nonetheless Today's vitals might be a bit confusing at first glance. Payrolls came in at -23k versus forecasts of 80k. At most moments in history, that would be worth a substantial rally. Today it was only worth 3bps in the 10yr and a quarter point in MBS. To be fair, it was worth even less without a late day drop in oil prices for unrelated reasons. But at this moment in history, low payroll counts are far more common and they're doing far less to influence the unemployment rate (case in point, today's FELL to 4.1% from 4.2%). This went a long way
7th August, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows
Mortgage rates dropped moderately today after the latest jobs report showed much lower jobs created than expected. The monthly jobs report is one of the most--if not THE most--important pieces of economic data to the rate market on any given month. If the numbers are close to forecasts, there isn't always a big reaction. Today's numbers were quite far from forecasts for some parts of the report, but slightly offset by others. The net effect was a decent improvement in the underlying bond market. Because mortgage rates are based on bonds, rates dropped accordingly. The average top-tier 30yr
Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows
Mortgage rates dropped moderately today after the latest jobs report showed much lower jobs created than expected. The monthly jobs report is one of the most--if not THE most--important pieces of economic data to the rate market on any given month. If the numbers are close to forecasts, there isn't always a big reaction. Today's numbers were quite far from forecasts for some parts of the report, but slightly offset by others. The net effect was a decent improvement in the underlying bond market. Because mortgage rates are based on bonds, rates dropped accordingly. The average top-tier 30yr
7th August, 26
Another Modest Drop in Mortgage Apps, But Next Week Should Bounce
Mortgage application activity declined for a second consecutive week as higher borrowing costs continued to weigh on both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.9% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 31. Purchase applications decreased 4% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 3% lower than the same week one year ago. Elevated mortgage rates continue to challenge affordability, dampening buyer demand despite improved housing inventory in some markets. Refinance activity
Another Modest Drop in Mortgage Apps, But Next Week Should Bounce
Mortgage application activity declined for a second consecutive week as higher borrowing costs continued to weigh on both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.9% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 31. Purchase applications decreased 4% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 3% lower than the same week one year ago. Elevated mortgage rates continue to challenge affordability, dampening buyer demand despite improved housing inventory in some markets. Refinance activity
7th August, 26
Cap Mkts Education, Mortgage Ops Support, QC, Flood Cert Tools; Weak Jobs Data
As many of us prepare to head to So Cal for the California MBA’s Western Secondary (800 or so registered), artificial intelligence continues to be the buzz. I recently received this question: “Rob, does it seem to you that we’re now at the same inflection point with AI as when everyone was afraid that DU & LP were going to replace all the underwriters?” Could be, and of course we still have underwriters. Meanwhile, borrowers still need help, and rates don’t show signs of going down. I received a question about “off the beaten path” routes for assistance. The Mortgage Credit
Cap Mkts Education, Mortgage Ops Support, QC, Flood Cert Tools; Weak Jobs Data
As many of us prepare to head to So Cal for the California MBA’s Western Secondary (800 or so registered), artificial intelligence continues to be the buzz. I recently received this question: “Rob, does it seem to you that we’re now at the same inflection point with AI as when everyone was afraid that DU & LP were going to replace all the underwriters?” Could be, and of course we still have underwriters. Meanwhile, borrowers still need help, and rates don’t show signs of going down. I received a question about “off the beaten path” routes for assistance. The Mortgage Credit