It was another ho-hum day for mortgage rates, which is more of the exception than the rule these days. But we're not complaining! The uneventful, sideways movement means rates are holding in line with the lowest levels in nearly a month. Today would have been slightly lower than yesterday had it not been for some mid-day weakness in the underlying bond market. While there were a few war-related headlines that coincided with the timing, the volatility is more attributable to esoteric trader positioning considerations in the Treasury options market.
Let’s see what’s in my electronic mailbag. “Rob, is it true that LOs can now join the MBA directly?” Yup. There’s MBA Homebase that provides loan officers with education, coaching, professional development, and a stronger voice in the mortgage industry. It is open to loan officers at every lender and across every origination channel, regardless of whether their company is an MBA member. “Rob, I watched President Trump talk about Montana being helped, financially, by Fannie and Freddie. Is that legal?” Hah, define “legal.” Montana has about 10,000 sales a year, $3 billion divided by 10,000 is…
We find ourselves in a bit of a lull in the bond market this week, and we don't object! Yields aren't screaming back up toward recent highs. Nor are they extending last week's swift rally. Both would cause problems for different reasons. Consolidating last week's rally in this narrow, sideways pattern is arguably the very best thing that could have happened this week. Whatever happens next is likely to be driven by a combination of the evolving narrative on tech sector concerns, econ data, and the Fed policy stance (which is really just a function of the econ data). In general, it is the tech…
Tech Concerns Keeping Bonds in The Game There was some oil price volatility today that looked like it might line up with some of the intraday volatility in the bond market. This may have actually been relevant between 10:10 and 10:30am as various rumors circulated regarding a draft deal. But the general trading range of Treasuries/MBS has been facilitated by the ongoing focus on potential credit concerns for a few key tech names. Coreweave is front and center with today's corporate bond volatility lining up very well with the AM Treasury volatility. Specifically, the height of Coreweave's…
Mortgage rates dropped 0.03% today on average leaving the top-tier 30yr fixed rate index at 7.40% vs 7.43% yesterday--the third lowest level in more than 3 weeks. As has been and continues to be the case, the lower rates seen since last Wednesday are primarily being driven by concerns about deleveraging and potential contagion in the AI sector. One of the most closely-watched bellwethers has been Coreweave where a sharp decline in stock prices and sharp increase in corporate bond yields has broadly mirrored recent moves in interest rates. Some of today's intraday volatility can also be viewed…
“I ordered a book online titled, ‘How to Scam People Online.’ It’s been six months and I still haven’t received it.” Being scammed, and fraud in general, isn’t a laughing matter. Companies like SoFi publish information on how to recover afterward. People over 60, as always, are more susceptible. The FBI has a website on mortgage fraud which is well-regarded. Good loan officers are instrumental in teaching their clients about it. I mention all of this because I continue to hear from LOs about how artificial intelligence has increased fraud more than reduced it. Generating one’s own paystubs…
The bond market continues to decide who it wants to be in Q4, 2026--the harbinger of inflation concerns, debt issuance and economic growth or a safe haven for cash being freed up by AI capex deleveraging. We're starting slightly stronger today with the AI deleveraging trade apparently setting the tone. Movement is too modest to demand any rigorous analysis (Nasdaq lower, yields lower), but at least it's green.
What's Up With Monday's Weakness? Bonds were moderately weaker on Monday and not in a way that was obviously connected to any of the potential scapegoats. We know that there was selling in the EU bond market overnight and while U.S. yields correlated with much of that move, that correlation broke down precisely when an EU-driven move would have been most relevant. It's easier to blame an ongoing recovery in the tech space even though there's a similar lack of elegant correlation between tech stocks and bond yields. Bottom line: Treasuries benefited from last week's moments of…
Mortgage rates were moderately higher to start the new week, adding to the modest losses seen on Friday. The silver lining is that any of the past 3 business days saw the lowest rates since September 23rd. There were no clear reasons for today's rate movement in terms of economic reports or news headlines. The same was true for last week's biggest swings which were driven by broad bond market sentiment as traders sought safer havens due to concerns about a pull-back in the tech sector. On that note, tech stocks had their best day in several weeks today with much of the improvement already…
“There’s a cohort of American males who believe that, with 1-2 years of dedicated practice, they could win the Masters golf tournament. As a marketer, it is important to understand that you can sell these people anything.” Advertising is not the same as marketing (it’s a component of it) and artificial intelligence is a part of it, especially for lenders. Many will say that any AI Agent should proclaim, “I am an AI Agent,” and anything from a bot should proclaim, “I am from a bot.” Would you let an “AI Agent” manage your money? Or move money in escrow? After Muse launch, U.S. Banks are saying…
Headlines and excerpts are sourced from Mortgage News Daily. All rights remain with the original publisher.
