Latest news
27th February, 26
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close Bonds ended the week/month at their strongest levels with 10yr yields breaking below the 4.0% floor to close at 3.95+. In addition to the low outright levels, the journey was accomplished with minimal volatility along the way. This is potentially surprising given this morning's much higher PPI numbers, but as discussed in the AM commentary, PPI is notoriously volatile and hasn't had a noticeable impact since 2024. Next week brings the typical early month, big ticket econ data (ISM, ADP, and the jobs report). Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close Bonds ended the week/month at their strongest levels with 10yr yields breaking below the 4.0% floor to close at 3.95+. In addition to the low outright levels, the journey was accomplished with minimal volatility along the way. This is potentially surprising given this morning's much higher PPI numbers, but as discussed in the AM commentary, PPI is notoriously volatile and hasn't had a noticeable impact since 2024. Next week brings the typical early month, big ticket econ data (ISM, ADP, and the jobs report). Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/
27th February, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week at Best Levels
At this point, it is getting a bit repetitive to bring up "the lowest rates in more than 3 years"--something that was officially the case twice this week. If we give rates credit for stably holding these long-term lows (and we should!), then every day this week has been the best in more than 3 years. Here's the specific record: at no other time in the history of our rate index have rates begun a week at long-term lows and experienced so little volatility. There was a somewhat similar stretch of 4 days in March 2019, but rates had only hit a 2 year low at the time. On average, when rates hit
Mortgage Rates End Week at Best Levels
At this point, it is getting a bit repetitive to bring up "the lowest rates in more than 3 years"--something that was officially the case twice this week. If we give rates credit for stably holding these long-term lows (and we should!), then every day this week has been the best in more than 3 years. Here's the specific record: at no other time in the history of our rate index have rates begun a week at long-term lows and experienced so little volatility. There was a somewhat similar stretch of 4 days in March 2019, but rates had only hit a 2 year low at the time. On average, when rates hit
27th February, 26
Mortgage Demand Calm Before The Storm?
Mortgage application activity edged ever-so-slightly higher last week, with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reporting an increase of 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending February 20. Refi applications continue to do the heavy lifting. The Refinance Index increased 4% from the previous week and was 150% higher than the same week one year ago. Conventional refinance applications rose 5% for the week, while VA refinances jumped 26%, as rates declined to their lowest levels since September 2022. Notably, rates have moved even lower this week and have held these new multi-
Mortgage Demand Calm Before The Storm?
Mortgage application activity edged ever-so-slightly higher last week, with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reporting an increase of 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending February 20. Refi applications continue to do the heavy lifting. The Refinance Index increased 4% from the previous week and was 150% higher than the same week one year ago. Conventional refinance applications rose 5% for the week, while VA refinances jumped 26%, as rates declined to their lowest levels since September 2022. Notably, rates have moved even lower this week and have held these new multi-
27th February, 26
Home Prices Still Rising, But Pace Remains Subdued
Home price appreciation pulled back slightly at the end of last year, according to December data from both FHFA and S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller. The reports reinforce the message that prices continued to appreciate modestly through the end of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index shows home prices up 1.8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 0.8% quarter-over-quarter . On a monthly basis, prices rose just 0.1% in December , suggesting continued but subdued momentum. On a 3-month basis (which helps smooth out month-to-month volatility while still capturing more
Home Prices Still Rising, But Pace Remains Subdued
Home price appreciation pulled back slightly at the end of last year, according to December data from both FHFA and S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller. The reports reinforce the message that prices continued to appreciate modestly through the end of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index shows home prices up 1.8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 0.8% quarter-over-quarter . On a monthly basis, prices rose just 0.1% in December , suggesting continued but subdued momentum. On a 3-month basis (which helps smooth out month-to-month volatility while still capturing more
27th February, 26
Fraud, Processing, Verification Waterfall Products; Fairway and Insurance; Conv. Conforming Changes
Can’t you feel the anticipation building? March 5th… Trigger leads… Don’t tell me that you’ve forgotten all about it. When a borrower applies for a mortgage and their credit is pulled, that data has historically been sold as a “trigger lead” and dozens of calls are received. Starting March 5, according to the law, credit bureaus can no longer sell trigger leads, the borrower’s lender can still contact them, and the current servicer may also reach out. Originators are reminding clients that online forms and third-party sites can still resell their information, so where they
Fraud, Processing, Verification Waterfall Products; Fairway and Insurance; Conv. Conforming Changes
Can’t you feel the anticipation building? March 5th… Trigger leads… Don’t tell me that you’ve forgotten all about it. When a borrower applies for a mortgage and their credit is pulled, that data has historically been sold as a “trigger lead” and dozens of calls are received. Starting March 5, according to the law, credit bureaus can no longer sell trigger leads, the borrower’s lender can still contact them, and the current servicer may also reach out. Originators are reminding clients that online forms and third-party sites can still resell their information, so where they
27th February, 26
Starting Out Under 4.0% Despite Hotter PPI
We'd already discussed the fact that PPI has fallen by the wayside as a relevant market mover for bonds despite one or two instances of relevance nearly 2 years ago when bonds were desperate for any hints of change. Today's PPI results and the ensuing bond market movement leave no doubt as to the relevance of this data. Spoiler alert: there's basically no relevance at the moment. The following chart expresses some uncertainty in labeling this morning's small bump in yields as a reaction to PPI. Reasons being: it didn't begin until 8:38am and the volume reaction happened from 8:30-8:34am.&
Starting Out Under 4.0% Despite Hotter PPI
We'd already discussed the fact that PPI has fallen by the wayside as a relevant market mover for bonds despite one or two instances of relevance nearly 2 years ago when bonds were desperate for any hints of change. Today's PPI results and the ensuing bond market movement leave no doubt as to the relevance of this data. Spoiler alert: there's basically no relevance at the moment. The following chart expresses some uncertainty in labeling this morning's small bump in yields as a reaction to PPI. Reasons being: it didn't begin until 8:38am and the volume reaction happened from 8:30-8:34am.&
26th February, 26
Knock Knock Knockin' on 10yr Floor
Knock Knock Knockin' on 10yr Floor Sometimes, it's a shame that the 7yr Treasury isn't the most popular bond market benchmark. If it were, today's headline could reference "knockin' on 7's floor." Whether it's the 3.77 level in the 7yr Treasury yield or 4.0% in the 10yr, bonds are repeatedly approaching these "floor" levels over the past 2 weeks and today's installment was the best yet--even if only barely. Yet again, there's not much for the bond market to hang its hat on in terms of motivations this week if not for the general stock market malaise. Apart from that, one would have to
Knock Knock Knockin' on 10yr Floor
Knock Knock Knockin' on 10yr Floor Sometimes, it's a shame that the 7yr Treasury isn't the most popular bond market benchmark. If it were, today's headline could reference "knockin' on 7's floor." Whether it's the 3.77 level in the 7yr Treasury yield or 4.0% in the 10yr, bonds are repeatedly approaching these "floor" levels over the past 2 weeks and today's installment was the best yet--even if only barely. Yet again, there's not much for the bond market to hang its hat on in terms of motivations this week if not for the general stock market malaise. Apart from that, one would have to
26th February, 26
Best Week For Mortgage Rates in Years
Given that we have the somewhat unpopular job of reporting that today's average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is 6.00 again, rather than the 5.99 seen earlier this week, we can at least find one glowingly positive development as a silver lining. In fact, the silver lining is more than a consolation prize. It's actually better news than another day at 5.99% would have been. First off, there's no functional difference between 6.00 and 5.99 when it comes to our daily rate index. A vast majority (95%+) of borrowers would see the exact same rate quotes on either day. As such, it's far
Best Week For Mortgage Rates in Years
Given that we have the somewhat unpopular job of reporting that today's average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is 6.00 again, rather than the 5.99 seen earlier this week, we can at least find one glowingly positive development as a silver lining. In fact, the silver lining is more than a consolation prize. It's actually better news than another day at 5.99% would have been. First off, there's no functional difference between 6.00 and 5.99 when it comes to our daily rate index. A vast majority (95%+) of borrowers would see the exact same rate quotes on either day. As such, it's far
26th February, 26
MBS Optimization, Non-Del Non-QM, Fraud, Realtor Tools; STRATMOR on Momentum; Jamie Dimon, AI, and Markets
The latest example is ICE Mortgage Technology launching its new Homeowner Portal, powered by LERETA’s tax tracking data, “giving homeowners real-time visibility into their property tax and insurance payment information. The integration enhances transparency for borrowers while helping servicers improve efficiency and reduce inbound customer inquiries.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by FirstClose, a leading home equity technology platform that combines digital application, automated workflows, integrated vendor management, and seamless LOS
MBS Optimization, Non-Del Non-QM, Fraud, Realtor Tools; STRATMOR on Momentum; Jamie Dimon, AI, and Markets
The latest example is ICE Mortgage Technology launching its new Homeowner Portal, powered by LERETA’s tax tracking data, “giving homeowners real-time visibility into their property tax and insurance payment information. The integration enhances transparency for borrowers while helping servicers improve efficiency and reduce inbound customer inquiries.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by FirstClose, a leading home equity technology platform that combines digital application, automated workflows, integrated vendor management, and seamless LOS
26th February, 26
Back to The Stronger End of The Range
This is the problem with narrow trading ranges. Yesterday, yields were safely inside a narrow range near long-term lows. Today, they're challenging the lowest levels since November. Any time we're at the best levels in months, it's normal to want to know why, but because of the narrow range, there isn't really a new "why" for today's share of the move. After all, 10yr yields are down less than 3bps, which is a below average move in the big picture. We can't blame data as there isn't a compelling option there. If we're still desperate for a scapegoat, it may not be perfect, but there is enough
Back to The Stronger End of The Range
This is the problem with narrow trading ranges. Yesterday, yields were safely inside a narrow range near long-term lows. Today, they're challenging the lowest levels since November. Any time we're at the best levels in months, it's normal to want to know why, but because of the narrow range, there isn't really a new "why" for today's share of the move. After all, 10yr yields are down less than 3bps, which is a below average move in the big picture. We can't blame data as there isn't a compelling option there. If we're still desperate for a scapegoat, it may not be perfect, but there is enough