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23rd April, 26
Specialty AI, Pooling, Correspondent Products; Lender Responsibility Opinion; Webcast Shows Incoming
After over 40 years in this industry and capital markets, I've learned that the best conversations are… with people. For example, a flyer could have been sent out yesterday instead of having a press conference to cover the VantageScore & FICO 10T news, but they chose to talk about it rather than tweet it. People! Next month, we're putting some of them on camera regularly. Four new shows are coming to the Chrisman network, covering the biggest topics in mortgage right now with the Capital Markets Wrap moving to Wednesdays. Registration is open for these live, monthly, and free shows: The
Specialty AI, Pooling, Correspondent Products; Lender Responsibility Opinion; Webcast Shows Incoming
After over 40 years in this industry and capital markets, I've learned that the best conversations are… with people. For example, a flyer could have been sent out yesterday instead of having a press conference to cover the VantageScore & FICO 10T news, but they chose to talk about it rather than tweet it. People! Next month, we're putting some of them on camera regularly. Four new shows are coming to the Chrisman network, covering the biggest topics in mortgage right now with the Capital Markets Wrap moving to Wednesdays. Registration is open for these live, monthly, and free shows: The
23rd April, 26
Fake Headlines Moving Markets?
Bonds were almost perfectly flat in the overnight session with yields holding inside a 1.5bp range. Oil prices rose initially, but recovered before the domestic session began. Part of that recovery occurred after headlines said US/Iran negotiations could make a breakthrough according to an Iranian diplomatic source. Social media quickly dubbed the news as "fake," but a legitimate version exists on ria.ru's website. So the news wasn't fake, it was just really really vague and toothless. Even so, bonds reacted to the tune of about 2bps and have been in a choppy, narrow range since then
Fake Headlines Moving Markets?
Bonds were almost perfectly flat in the overnight session with yields holding inside a 1.5bp range. Oil prices rose initially, but recovered before the domestic session began. Part of that recovery occurred after headlines said US/Iran negotiations could make a breakthrough according to an Iranian diplomatic source. Social media quickly dubbed the news as "fake," but a legitimate version exists on ria.ru's website. So the news wasn't fake, it was just really really vague and toothless. Even so, bonds reacted to the tune of about 2bps and have been in a choppy, narrow range since then
22nd April, 26
Uncertainty Extended Indefinitely
Uncertainty Extended Indefinitely Heading into last night's ceasefire expiration, there was a sense that the market would at least have something to provide a directional cue to break the recent range-bound monotony. Instead, not only was the ceasefire extended, but the new deadline is explicitly TBD. This makes the expiration of range-bound monotony similarly uncertain. Today's almost perfectly flat trading session submits itself as evidence. All this having been said, the absence of a deadline doesn't mean things can't change precipitously. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment Change Weekly 54.
Uncertainty Extended Indefinitely
Uncertainty Extended Indefinitely Heading into last night's ceasefire expiration, there was a sense that the market would at least have something to provide a directional cue to break the recent range-bound monotony. Instead, not only was the ceasefire extended, but the new deadline is explicitly TBD. This makes the expiration of range-bound monotony similarly uncertain. Today's almost perfectly flat trading session submits itself as evidence. All this having been said, the absence of a deadline doesn't mean things can't change precipitously. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment Change Weekly 54.
22nd April, 26
Mortgage Rates Maintaining a Tight Range Amid War-Related Uncertainty
Rates remain focused on oil prices and war-related developments. With yesterday's ceasefire extension and today's ambiguity over the time frame of that extension, rates are in a distinct holding pattern until the next phase of escalation/de-escalation comes into better focus. For now, the market is generally betting on de-escalation as seen in stocks being near all-time highs and bond yields (aka "rates") being well off the highs seen in late March. In this environment, day to day rate movement is fairly incidental. Today's installment brought modest improvement versus yesterday's latest
Mortgage Rates Maintaining a Tight Range Amid War-Related Uncertainty
Rates remain focused on oil prices and war-related developments. With yesterday's ceasefire extension and today's ambiguity over the time frame of that extension, rates are in a distinct holding pattern until the next phase of escalation/de-escalation comes into better focus. For now, the market is generally betting on de-escalation as seen in stocks being near all-time highs and bond yields (aka "rates") being well off the highs seen in late March. In this environment, day to day rate movement is fairly incidental. Today's installment brought modest improvement versus yesterday's latest
22nd April, 26
MBS Execution, AI, DSCR, Processing, HELOC Products; Hedge Funds, Treasuries, and Mortgage Rates
Today we have a press conference with HUD Secretary Scott Turner and U.S. Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte announcing “a significant development in the U.S. housing finance system” at 12:45PM ET. Rumors run the gamut from “operationalizing” VantageScore to moving control of the FHA & VA programs under Pulte and the FHFA. Meanwhile, the capital markets have a lot on “their” mind, and I received this note. “Rob, I’ve heard that hedge funds own a record percentage of U.S. Treasuries. Does that impact mortgage rates for my borrowers?” Anything impacting supply and demand
MBS Execution, AI, DSCR, Processing, HELOC Products; Hedge Funds, Treasuries, and Mortgage Rates
Today we have a press conference with HUD Secretary Scott Turner and U.S. Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte announcing “a significant development in the U.S. housing finance system” at 12:45PM ET. Rumors run the gamut from “operationalizing” VantageScore to moving control of the FHA & VA programs under Pulte and the FHFA. Meanwhile, the capital markets have a lot on “their” mind, and I received this note. “Rob, I’ve heard that hedge funds own a record percentage of U.S. Treasuries. Does that impact mortgage rates for my borrowers?” Anything impacting supply and demand
22nd April, 26
Hurrying Up And Waiting
As a testament to just how confident the market is/was that neither side is overly interested in escalating the Iran war, Tuesday night's ceasefire deadline has come and gone with surprisingly little fanfare. Yes, the ceasefire was technically extended, but the more relevant point is that oil prices have traded inside a 4 dollar range that covered both the bullish and bearish potential outcomes. We've been saying for several weeks that the next big move for the bond market will be reserved for a truly momentous development such as the complete end of hostilities/blockades or a massive
Hurrying Up And Waiting
As a testament to just how confident the market is/was that neither side is overly interested in escalating the Iran war, Tuesday night's ceasefire deadline has come and gone with surprisingly little fanfare. Yes, the ceasefire was technically extended, but the more relevant point is that oil prices have traded inside a 4 dollar range that covered both the bullish and bearish potential outcomes. We've been saying for several weeks that the next big move for the bond market will be reserved for a truly momentous development such as the complete end of hostilities/blockades or a massive
21st April, 26
Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses
Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses Bonds were just a bit weaker this morning after the weekly ADP data. Just before 11am ET, several newswires called ceasefire negotiations into question. Chief among these was a report that Iran had not confirmed its intent to participate. Despite the seemingly significant consequences, bonds only rose about 2bps in terms of 10yr yields. By the 3pm CME close, yields were up less than 4bps on the day and still well inside the prevailing consolidation range. There's been a bit more weakness since then owing to new headlines indicating that neither Iran
Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses
Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses Bonds were just a bit weaker this morning after the weekly ADP data. Just before 11am ET, several newswires called ceasefire negotiations into question. Chief among these was a report that Iran had not confirmed its intent to participate. Despite the seemingly significant consequences, bonds only rose about 2bps in terms of 10yr yields. By the 3pm CME close, yields were up less than 4bps on the day and still well inside the prevailing consolidation range. There's been a bit more weakness since then owing to new headlines indicating that neither Iran
21st April, 26
Highest Rates in a Week But There's a Catch
Technically and officially, today's average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is the highest since last Monday. The catch is that there hasn't been much movement since then with the overall range being limited to 0.04%. Today's jump was the largest upward movement during that time. There was some upward pressure on rates from stronger employment data in the morning, but the market was even more focused on the uncertain status of US/Iran peace talks. As the domestic business day winds down, it doesn't look like there will be concrete news on a ceasefire extension. As such,
Highest Rates in a Week But There's a Catch
Technically and officially, today's average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is the highest since last Monday. The catch is that there hasn't been much movement since then with the overall range being limited to 0.04%. Today's jump was the largest upward movement during that time. There was some upward pressure on rates from stronger employment data in the morning, but the market was even more focused on the uncertain status of US/Iran peace talks. As the domestic business day winds down, it doesn't look like there will be concrete news on a ceasefire extension. As such,
21st April, 26
VOA, Processing, DPA, Non-QM, Broker Products; Lender 2025 Volume Rankings; Attorneys and Legal Risk
Wholesale and Correspondent Product and Corporate News Homebridge Financial Services, Inc., one of the nation’s largest privately held non-bank mortgage lenders, has officially signed an agreement to merge with an affiliate of Saluda Grade, a premier independent alternative investment firm (founded in 2019 with approximately $4.4 billion in assets under management). This powerful partnership marks a major leap forward, positioning the combined platform for explosive growth, particularly across the rapidly expanding Non-QM and HELOC space. The executive and management team at Homebridge are
VOA, Processing, DPA, Non-QM, Broker Products; Lender 2025 Volume Rankings; Attorneys and Legal Risk
Wholesale and Correspondent Product and Corporate News Homebridge Financial Services, Inc., one of the nation’s largest privately held non-bank mortgage lenders, has officially signed an agreement to merge with an affiliate of Saluda Grade, a premier independent alternative investment firm (founded in 2019 with approximately $4.4 billion in assets under management). This powerful partnership marks a major leap forward, positioning the combined platform for explosive growth, particularly across the rapidly expanding Non-QM and HELOC space. The executive and management team at Homebridge are
21st April, 26
Barely Weaker After Weekly ADP Data (Not Retail Sales)
Heading into the day, the 8:30am Retail Sales data was the obvious pick among the available economic reports to be a potential market mover. Reality had other ideas... weird ones. After months and months without any major reaction, this morning's weekly ADP employment finally made its presence felt, even if only by the smallest of margins. Retail Sales definitely garnered a higher volume reaction, but it was balanced between buyers and sellers whereas ADP actually caused a small directional move. Fortunately, it's so small that we've already talked about it too much. Bonds are essentially flat
Barely Weaker After Weekly ADP Data (Not Retail Sales)
Heading into the day, the 8:30am Retail Sales data was the obvious pick among the available economic reports to be a potential market mover. Reality had other ideas... weird ones. After months and months without any major reaction, this morning's weekly ADP employment finally made its presence felt, even if only by the smallest of margins. Retail Sales definitely garnered a higher volume reaction, but it was balanced between buyers and sellers whereas ADP actually caused a small directional move. Fortunately, it's so small that we've already talked about it too much. Bonds are essentially flat