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12th February, 26
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months. At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were just over 4.10%--the lowest level since December 4th, 2025. In light of yesterday's stronger jobs report, today's absence of market moving data, and this week's Treasury auction cycle, it is impossible to account for these gains without conjecture and assumption. Certainly heavy selling in stocks and commodities deserves some credit for driving a flight to safety that benefited bonds, but we've definitely seen similar stock selling without the bond market benefit. Apart from that,
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months. At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were just over 4.10%--the lowest level since December 4th, 2025. In light of yesterday's stronger jobs report, today's absence of market moving data, and this week's Treasury auction cycle, it is impossible to account for these gains without conjecture and assumption. Certainly heavy selling in stocks and commodities deserves some credit for driving a flight to safety that benefited bonds, but we've definitely seen similar stock selling without the bond market benefit. Apart from that,
12th February, 26
Mortgage Rates Slide to New Multiweek Lows
Just one day after an incredibly strong jobs report--something that would normally create problematic upward momentum for rates--the average lender is back to the lowest levels since January 16th. At the risk of overusing a played-out metaphor, this was not on many experts' bingo cards. Even with the benefit of hindsight, it's not entirely possible to justify what we've seen over the past 2 days without jumping to conclusions and making educated guesses. Said guesses would rely on somewhat esoteric concepts regarding the way investor demand ebbs and flows between different Treasury securities
Mortgage Rates Slide to New Multiweek Lows
Just one day after an incredibly strong jobs report--something that would normally create problematic upward momentum for rates--the average lender is back to the lowest levels since January 16th. At the risk of overusing a played-out metaphor, this was not on many experts' bingo cards. Even with the benefit of hindsight, it's not entirely possible to justify what we've seen over the past 2 days without jumping to conclusions and making educated guesses. Said guesses would rely on somewhat esoteric concepts regarding the way investor demand ebbs and flows between different Treasury securities
12th February, 26
Non-QM Pricing, Appraisal, BI, Servicing Tools; Interview With Pennymac Chief Strategist; CFPB Update
Here at San Diego’s MCT Exchange 2026, the hallway chatter is varied. These are capital markets personnel, so things are pragmatic. One topic is Freddie Mac’s earnings: $2.8 billion in income for the fourth quarter of 2025 and $10.7 billion for 2025. Another is large companies becoming larger, exemplified by Tradeweb making an investment in MAXEX and by yesterday’s news of Pennymac entering into an agreement to acquire subservicer Cenlar (sponsor of this week’s podcasts with its 2 million loans). In fact, today’s podcast includes an interview with Pennymac’s Chief Strategy Officer
Non-QM Pricing, Appraisal, BI, Servicing Tools; Interview With Pennymac Chief Strategist; CFPB Update
Here at San Diego’s MCT Exchange 2026, the hallway chatter is varied. These are capital markets personnel, so things are pragmatic. One topic is Freddie Mac’s earnings: $2.8 billion in income for the fourth quarter of 2025 and $10.7 billion for 2025. Another is large companies becoming larger, exemplified by Tradeweb making an investment in MAXEX and by yesterday’s news of Pennymac entering into an agreement to acquire subservicer Cenlar (sponsor of this week’s podcasts with its 2 million loans). In fact, today’s podcast includes an interview with Pennymac’s Chief Strategy Officer
12th February, 26
Slower Data. Slower Morning
When the jobs report makes a big statement, bonds are more likely to exhibit elevated momentum and volatility in the following days. In more than a few past examples, a big jobs report can set the tone for the entire month--all the way until the next jobs report comes out. Perhaps it's the delayed release of yesterday's report and the resulting juxtaposition with tomorrow's CPI (also a relevant market mover), but bonds have immediately returned to the sort of sideways, uneventful trading seen on your average, boring trading day. In today's defense, it is fairly average. And the results from
Slower Data. Slower Morning
When the jobs report makes a big statement, bonds are more likely to exhibit elevated momentum and volatility in the following days. In more than a few past examples, a big jobs report can set the tone for the entire month--all the way until the next jobs report comes out. Perhaps it's the delayed release of yesterday's report and the resulting juxtaposition with tomorrow's CPI (also a relevant market mover), but bonds have immediately returned to the sort of sideways, uneventful trading seen on your average, boring trading day. In today's defense, it is fairly average. And the results from
11th February, 26
Stunning Resilience
Stunning Resilience One could argue that our bar is set too low if we view today's bond market resilience as "stunning," but if that's not the right word, it's damn close. Last Thursday saw yields drop 8bps, largely due to a trio of labor market reports that are nowhere near as heavily traded as today's jobs report. Yesterday's Retail Sales helped yields slight significantly below the 4.20% technical barrier. And now today, an effective 0.2% lower unemployment rate (0.1% in the rate itself + 0.1% implied by the higher participation rate) and big beat in the payroll count are worth only a 3bp
Stunning Resilience
Stunning Resilience One could argue that our bar is set too low if we view today's bond market resilience as "stunning," but if that's not the right word, it's damn close. Last Thursday saw yields drop 8bps, largely due to a trio of labor market reports that are nowhere near as heavily traded as today's jobs report. Yesterday's Retail Sales helped yields slight significantly below the 4.20% technical barrier. And now today, an effective 0.2% lower unemployment rate (0.1% in the rate itself + 0.1% implied by the higher participation rate) and big beat in the payroll count are worth only a 3bp
11th February, 26
Modest Increase in Rates is a Win. Here's Why
Mortgage rates moved 0.03% higher today. On almost any other day, this would be a bit of a bummer, but in today's case, it's a victory. There was a ton of potential volatility in the underlying bond market heading into the day due to the scheduled release of the big monthly jobs report. In addition, rates had taken a bit of an anticipatory lead-off ahead of the data (or at least it looked that way). The implication was that a strong jobs report would come as a surprise and require a rapid correction toward higher rates--possibly significantly higher. Truth has been stranger than fiction. The
Modest Increase in Rates is a Win. Here's Why
Mortgage rates moved 0.03% higher today. On almost any other day, this would be a bit of a bummer, but in today's case, it's a victory. There was a ton of potential volatility in the underlying bond market heading into the day due to the scheduled release of the big monthly jobs report. In addition, rates had taken a bit of an anticipatory lead-off ahead of the data (or at least it looked that way). The implication was that a strong jobs report would come as a surprise and require a rapid correction toward higher rates--possibly significantly higher. Truth has been stranger than fiction. The
11th February, 26
Calmer Week For Mortgage Apps
Mortgage application activity was essentially flat last week, almost impressively so. After much recent volatility, the index is finding a brief moment of stability, and borrowers seem content continue to weigh affordability challenges and wait for clearer movement in rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications decreased 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending February 6, while rising 2% on an unadjusted basis. Purchase demand softened modestly. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index slipped 2% from the prior week, while unadjusted purchase applications
Calmer Week For Mortgage Apps
Mortgage application activity was essentially flat last week, almost impressively so. After much recent volatility, the index is finding a brief moment of stability, and borrowers seem content continue to weigh affordability challenges and wait for clearer movement in rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications decreased 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending February 6, while rising 2% on an unadjusted basis. Purchase demand softened modestly. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index slipped 2% from the prior week, while unadjusted purchase applications
11th February, 26
DPA, HELOC, Correspondent eNote, Escrow Mgt. Tools; STRATMOR on IMB Concerns; Servicing Alarms
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders “Escrow is supposed to be predictable. But in default servicing, that predictability diminishes when a loan enters delinquency. Escrows stop being a background process and turns into a manual, high-risk exercise. As core systems fall back on rigid rules, middle operations step in, rebuilding balances in spreadsheets to keep loans moving. Clarifire’s latest blog, “Escrow Management in Default Servicing: A Middle Operations Opportunity,” explores the challenges servicers face with manual calculations, how that dependence fragments
DPA, HELOC, Correspondent eNote, Escrow Mgt. Tools; STRATMOR on IMB Concerns; Servicing Alarms
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders “Escrow is supposed to be predictable. But in default servicing, that predictability diminishes when a loan enters delinquency. Escrows stop being a background process and turns into a manual, high-risk exercise. As core systems fall back on rigid rules, middle operations step in, rebuilding balances in spreadsheets to keep loans moving. Clarifire’s latest blog, “Escrow Management in Default Servicing: A Middle Operations Opportunity,” explores the challenges servicers face with manual calculations, how that dependence fragments
11th February, 26
Bonds Selling But Not Panicking After Super Strong Jobs Numbers
Nearly an hour after this morning's surprisingly strong jobs report, 10yr yields are only 4.4bps higher at 4.19%. On a normal day, 4.4bps might be a fairly big sell-off, but it's a huge victory on a day where payrolls came in at 130k vs 70k forecast, and where the unemployment rate fell to 4.3 vs 4.4 expectations. Moreover, labor force participation moved 0.1 higher, which means the unemployment downtick is an even stronger sign (all else equal, unemployment will rise 0.1 if participation rises 0.1). The only knock on the data is that the healthcare sector did all the heavy lifting, and it was
Bonds Selling But Not Panicking After Super Strong Jobs Numbers
Nearly an hour after this morning's surprisingly strong jobs report, 10yr yields are only 4.4bps higher at 4.19%. On a normal day, 4.4bps might be a fairly big sell-off, but it's a huge victory on a day where payrolls came in at 130k vs 70k forecast, and where the unemployment rate fell to 4.3 vs 4.4 expectations. Moreover, labor force participation moved 0.1 higher, which means the unemployment downtick is an even stronger sign (all else equal, unemployment will rise 0.1 if participation rises 0.1). The only knock on the data is that the healthcare sector did all the heavy lifting, and it was
10th February, 26
Best Levels in Weeks Ahead of High Stakes Jobs Report
Best Levels in Weeks Ahead of High Stakes Jobs Report Rather than circle the wagons and consolidate the recent rally, bonds kicked the buying into higher gear on Tuesday thanks to a surprisingly weak Retail Sales report for December. This can be added to the list of recent data that has urged the bond market to get in position for a similarly weak jobs report tomorrow. Nearly 15bps of improvement in less than a week means that jobs would have to especially downbeat for this pace to continue. If the report surprises to the upside, bonds are at risk of a reasonably brisk correction, but as
Best Levels in Weeks Ahead of High Stakes Jobs Report
Best Levels in Weeks Ahead of High Stakes Jobs Report Rather than circle the wagons and consolidate the recent rally, bonds kicked the buying into higher gear on Tuesday thanks to a surprisingly weak Retail Sales report for December. This can be added to the list of recent data that has urged the bond market to get in position for a similarly weak jobs report tomorrow. Nearly 15bps of improvement in less than a week means that jobs would have to especially downbeat for this pace to continue. If the report surprises to the upside, bonds are at risk of a reasonably brisk correction, but as