Latest news
12th January, 26
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data Bonds were marginally weaker on Monday with no obvious scapegoats in sight. Some reporters pointed toward Fed Chair Powell's criminal inquiry as rattling the market, but bonds were effectively unchanged in the 1pm hour after a well-received 10yr Treasury auction. More importantly, there was no clear correlation between the overnight news and the overnight market movement. Volume was the lowest in several days--typical for a data-free Monday. MBS underperformed, but only because they're still range-finding after last week's massive outperformance.
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data Bonds were marginally weaker on Monday with no obvious scapegoats in sight. Some reporters pointed toward Fed Chair Powell's criminal inquiry as rattling the market, but bonds were effectively unchanged in the 1pm hour after a well-received 10yr Treasury auction. More importantly, there was no clear correlation between the overnight news and the overnight market movement. Volume was the lowest in several days--typical for a data-free Monday. MBS underperformed, but only because they're still range-finding after last week's massive outperformance.
12th January, 26
Mortgage Rates Inch Higher From 3 Year Lows
Mortgage rates are either higher or lower today, depending on the lender in question. Some lenders raised rates on Friday afternoon in response to weakness in the bond market (lenders set rates based on the trading levels of MBS, the bonds that underlie the mortgage market). Those lenders are actually slightly lower today. Lenders who didn't raise rates on Friday afternoon are slightly higher today. In all cases, apart from Friday morning, today's rates remain well below anything seen for nearly 3 years. This is notable considering 10yr are near 4 month highs and more than 0.20% higher than
Mortgage Rates Inch Higher From 3 Year Lows
Mortgage rates are either higher or lower today, depending on the lender in question. Some lenders raised rates on Friday afternoon in response to weakness in the bond market (lenders set rates based on the trading levels of MBS, the bonds that underlie the mortgage market). Those lenders are actually slightly lower today. Lenders who didn't raise rates on Friday afternoon are slightly higher today. In all cases, apart from Friday morning, today's rates remain well below anything seen for nearly 3 years. This is notable considering 10yr are near 4 month highs and more than 0.20% higher than
12th January, 26
ICE Experience, AI Webinar, LOS, Inside Sales, BBYS, DSCR Products; Is a Cap on Credit Cards Possible?
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that the median age of first-time homebuyers has increased significantly, reaching 40 years old, compared to 29 years old in 1981. Not only that, but first-time home buyer share has fallen to a historic low of 21 percent. If you’re a lender, do you have the products in your arsenal to take advantage of these demographic shifts? In addition, do you have the technology that your clients prefer? In today’s Now Next Later, at 10AM PT, Jodi Hall and Jeremy Potter will focus on technology and innovation. (Today’s podcast can be found here and
ICE Experience, AI Webinar, LOS, Inside Sales, BBYS, DSCR Products; Is a Cap on Credit Cards Possible?
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that the median age of first-time homebuyers has increased significantly, reaching 40 years old, compared to 29 years old in 1981. Not only that, but first-time home buyer share has fallen to a historic low of 21 percent. If you’re a lender, do you have the products in your arsenal to take advantage of these demographic shifts? In addition, do you have the technology that your clients prefer? In today’s Now Next Later, at 10AM PT, Jodi Hall and Jeremy Potter will focus on technology and innovation. (Today’s podcast can be found here and
12th January, 26
Bond Market Only Marginally Interested in Powell Drama For Now
The most important-sounding news over the weekend was last night's subpoena of Fed Chair Powell over statements made to congress regarding the Fed's building renovations. Bond yields were slightly higher this morning and commentators erroneously connected those dots. There was actually no meaningful movement in either direction when the news hit, but trading volume confirms the news was noticed. Forex markets also confirmed a reaction with the dollar losing obvious ground vs the Euro, but Treasury futures weren't well-correlated with that move. The following chart shows the percent
Bond Market Only Marginally Interested in Powell Drama For Now
The most important-sounding news over the weekend was last night's subpoena of Fed Chair Powell over statements made to congress regarding the Fed's building renovations. Bond yields were slightly higher this morning and commentators erroneously connected those dots. There was actually no meaningful movement in either direction when the news hit, but trading volume confirms the news was noticed. Forex markets also confirmed a reaction with the dollar losing obvious ground vs the Euro, but Treasury futures weren't well-correlated with that move. The following chart shows the percent
9th January, 26
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments We may have been looking to the jobs report as this week's biggest potential source of volatility, but that changed on Thursday afternoon after Trump's $200bln MBS buying announcement. Treasuries have only been able to watch from the sidelines. At one point this morning after the jobs data, Treasuries were several bps weaker while MBS were in the midst of their biggest rally in months (up more than a half point at the time). There was a rapid "distribution" phase following the initial rally, but prices bounced back to end the day up about a
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments We may have been looking to the jobs report as this week's biggest potential source of volatility, but that changed on Thursday afternoon after Trump's $200bln MBS buying announcement. Treasuries have only been able to watch from the sidelines. At one point this morning after the jobs data, Treasuries were several bps weaker while MBS were in the midst of their biggest rally in months (up more than a half point at the time). There was a rapid "distribution" phase following the initial rally, but prices bounced back to end the day up about a
9th January, 26
Rates Plummet to 3 Year Lows, But There Are Caveats
On a week where the mortgage market was most likely to experience volatility due to Friday's jobs report, Thursday afternoon's surprise announcement of $200bln in GSE MBS (mortgage-backed securities) buying stole the show. This was already juicing the underlying MBS market yesterday afternoon, but traders took the surge to the next level this morning. This matters because MBS dictate mortgage rates. When MBS are rising/improving/surging/etc., it implies lower rates. MBS had improved so much this morning that the average lender released their best rate sheet since Feb 2, 2023--the lowest
Rates Plummet to 3 Year Lows, But There Are Caveats
On a week where the mortgage market was most likely to experience volatility due to Friday's jobs report, Thursday afternoon's surprise announcement of $200bln in GSE MBS (mortgage-backed securities) buying stole the show. This was already juicing the underlying MBS market yesterday afternoon, but traders took the surge to the next level this morning. This matters because MBS dictate mortgage rates. When MBS are rising/improving/surging/etc., it implies lower rates. MBS had improved so much this morning that the average lender released their best rate sheet since Feb 2, 2023--the lowest
9th January, 26
What's Up With The New MBS Buying Announcement and The Massive Reaction in The Market?
On Thursday afternoon with less than an hour left to trade, Trump announced he would be directing his representatives to buy $200bln in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). No matter what one's personal opinions may be regarding bold announcements from the President, this one is definitely serious. How do we know? First off, if you don't want to apply any critical thought to the matter, simply consider that the MBS market reacted immediately and forcefully. In other words, traders have done the mental heavy lifting for you. They wouldn't have been moving billions of dollars of MBS at
What's Up With The New MBS Buying Announcement and The Massive Reaction in The Market?
On Thursday afternoon with less than an hour left to trade, Trump announced he would be directing his representatives to buy $200bln in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). No matter what one's personal opinions may be regarding bold announcements from the President, this one is definitely serious. How do we know? First off, if you don't want to apply any critical thought to the matter, simply consider that the MBS market reacted immediately and forcefully. In other words, traders have done the mental heavy lifting for you. They wouldn't have been moving billions of dollars of MBS at
9th January, 26
PHH Webinar Series; Agencies to Buy One Month's Worth of Production - Similar to 2020; In-Person Events for 2026
A frequent topic in this Commentary is how lenders are responsible for only a small portion of the affordability issue. A big hit to affordability is insurance, and thank you to Kevin K. for passing along this story focused on fire resilience and home upgrades and how they may address insurance costs. Trying to plan for natural events is a full-time job that occupies many, as is thinking about the future of technology. On today’s Last Word presented by TRUE at 1PM ET, Brian Vieaux, Courtney Thompson, and Kevin Peranio break down a busy week across mortgage and capital markets, including hot
PHH Webinar Series; Agencies to Buy One Month's Worth of Production - Similar to 2020; In-Person Events for 2026
A frequent topic in this Commentary is how lenders are responsible for only a small portion of the affordability issue. A big hit to affordability is insurance, and thank you to Kevin K. for passing along this story focused on fire resilience and home upgrades and how they may address insurance costs. Trying to plan for natural events is a full-time job that occupies many, as is thinking about the future of technology. On today’s Last Word presented by TRUE at 1PM ET, Brian Vieaux, Courtney Thompson, and Kevin Peranio break down a busy week across mortgage and capital markets, including hot
9th January, 26
Fairly Tame Jobs Report, MBS Have Magic Armor Either Way
The jobs report came out mixed with payrolls falling 10k short of the 60k forecast and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.4% vs a 4.5% forecast. The unemployment rate decline is mitigated somewhat by the decline in labor force participation. All in all, this is not a lopsided report with any chance of sparking a rapid move in bonds. That said, MBS are moving rapidly higher and it has nothing to do with data and everything to do with last night's announcement of the administration's plans to buy $200bln in MBS. Simply put, Treasuries are roughly unchanged while MBS are up
Fairly Tame Jobs Report, MBS Have Magic Armor Either Way
The jobs report came out mixed with payrolls falling 10k short of the 60k forecast and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.4% vs a 4.5% forecast. The unemployment rate decline is mitigated somewhat by the decline in labor force participation. All in all, this is not a lopsided report with any chance of sparking a rapid move in bonds. That said, MBS are moving rapidly higher and it has nothing to do with data and everything to do with last night's announcement of the administration's plans to buy $200bln in MBS. Simply put, Treasuries are roughly unchanged while MBS are up
8th January, 26
Mostly Quiet Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report
Mostly Quiet Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report Bonds lost a bit of ground on Thursday with most of the weakness seen in the overnight session in sympathy with European bond market weakness. The rest of the selling followed a stronger weekly jobless claims report. That said, we wouldn't give the data all the credit based on the timing of the selling and additional back-and-forth throughout the day. Tomorrow is far more interesting anyway. It brings what many view as the first clean reading of the big jobs report since before the government shutdown. Point being: the market will likely be more
Mostly Quiet Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report
Mostly Quiet Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report Bonds lost a bit of ground on Thursday with most of the weakness seen in the overnight session in sympathy with European bond market weakness. The rest of the selling followed a stronger weekly jobless claims report. That said, we wouldn't give the data all the credit based on the timing of the selling and additional back-and-forth throughout the day. Tomorrow is far more interesting anyway. It brings what many view as the first clean reading of the big jobs report since before the government shutdown. Point being: the market will likely be more