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4th September, 26
Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data
Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data Today's market reaction to the big beat in NFP (162k vs 56k) certainly stretches the paradigm of most market watchers who've been in the game for more than a few years, but this has been the reality over the past year or two. Relatively rapid changes in labor force trends (and ongoing changes in seasonal distortions) have made the job count a less precise measurement of labor market health than it once was. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has been far more insulated from that volatility (and far less prone to big beats/misses compared to NFP).
Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data
Surprisingly Light Selling Given The Econ Data Today's market reaction to the big beat in NFP (162k vs 56k) certainly stretches the paradigm of most market watchers who've been in the game for more than a few years, but this has been the reality over the past year or two. Relatively rapid changes in labor force trends (and ongoing changes in seasonal distortions) have made the job count a less precise measurement of labor market health than it once was. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has been far more insulated from that volatility (and far less prone to big beats/misses compared to NFP).
4th September, 26
Mortgage Applications Rebound Modestly as ARM Share Hits Five-Week High
Mortgage application activity showed some signs of life last week, with a modest increase in purchase demand helping offset another decline in refinancing as mortgage rates reached their highest level in four weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 28. Purchase applications held down the fort, rising 2% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis. Activity was still 0.2% below the same week one year ago, but the relatively stable year-over-year comparison suggests
Mortgage Applications Rebound Modestly as ARM Share Hits Five-Week High
Mortgage application activity showed some signs of life last week, with a modest increase in purchase demand helping offset another decline in refinancing as mortgage rates reached their highest level in four weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 28. Purchase applications held down the fort, rising 2% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis. Activity was still 0.2% below the same week one year ago, but the relatively stable year-over-year comparison suggests
4th September, 26
Rates Only Slightly Higher Despite Strong Jobs Report
Mortgage rates have a long and storied past with the monthly jobs report. Officially titled "The Employment Situation," the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) jobs report has more power than any other monthly economic report to cause volatility in the rate market over the years. It may have lost some of that capability over the past few years, but it's always worthy of respect. With that in mind, it was an ominous sign for rates when this morning's jobs data came in MUCH stronger than expected. BLS counted 162k new jobs created compared to a median forecast of 56k. On many occasions in the past
Rates Only Slightly Higher Despite Strong Jobs Report
Mortgage rates have a long and storied past with the monthly jobs report. Officially titled "The Employment Situation," the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) jobs report has more power than any other monthly economic report to cause volatility in the rate market over the years. It may have lost some of that capability over the past few years, but it's always worthy of respect. With that in mind, it was an ominous sign for rates when this morning's jobs data came in MUCH stronger than expected. BLS counted 162k new jobs created compared to a median forecast of 56k. On many occasions in the past
4th September, 26
U/W, LOS/TPO, Workflow Automation, AI Risk, Education Tools; MBS and MSR Trends
Make sure that your air conditioning is in good condition, as well as clients’. Loan servicers are wondering about their collateral: “Heat in the oceans releases more slowly into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the following year. The powerful 2023-24 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, and we should not be surprised if this record is broken. El Nino is a natural part of the weather cycle, and is not caused by climate change.” Weather prediction can be dicey, especially months in advance, but predicting population trends that lenders and investors
U/W, LOS/TPO, Workflow Automation, AI Risk, Education Tools; MBS and MSR Trends
Make sure that your air conditioning is in good condition, as well as clients’. Loan servicers are wondering about their collateral: “Heat in the oceans releases more slowly into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the following year. The powerful 2023-24 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, and we should not be surprised if this record is broken. El Nino is a natural part of the weather cycle, and is not caused by climate change.” Weather prediction can be dicey, especially months in advance, but predicting population trends that lenders and investors
4th September, 26
Bonds Only Moderately Higher After Balmy NFP
The jobs count surged higher (162k vs 56k f'cast) in this morning's jobs report. While such wild divergences will have the masses crying foul, and while this is a large beat, it's not the first time that the headline job count has been this far off forecasts. This is especially understandable amid recent volatility in labor force composition. One minor saving grace is the steady unemployment rate, but unfortunately, the participation rate increased by 0.2%, which means the unemployment rate would have fallen 0.1-0.2 (depending on rounding) all else equal. Bonds weakened immediately on the news
Bonds Only Moderately Higher After Balmy NFP
The jobs count surged higher (162k vs 56k f'cast) in this morning's jobs report. While such wild divergences will have the masses crying foul, and while this is a large beat, it's not the first time that the headline job count has been this far off forecasts. This is especially understandable amid recent volatility in labor force composition. One minor saving grace is the steady unemployment rate, but unfortunately, the participation rate increased by 0.2%, which means the unemployment rate would have fallen 0.1-0.2 (depending on rounding) all else equal. Bonds weakened immediately on the news
3rd September, 26
Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness
Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness The day's most notable development, by far, was the speech from Fed Governor Waller in which he said the Fed probably didn't need to hike at the upcoming meeting (depending on data, of course). Fed Funds Futures reacted immediately and mostly held those gains all day. The longer end of the curve ended up giving back most of the initial gains, albeit very gradually. The net effect is that we're still in "wait and see" mode--but a slightly less painful version--ahead of Friday's jobs report and next week's inflation data. Econ Data / Events
Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness
Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness The day's most notable development, by far, was the speech from Fed Governor Waller in which he said the Fed probably didn't need to hike at the upcoming meeting (depending on data, of course). Fed Funds Futures reacted immediately and mostly held those gains all day. The longer end of the curve ended up giving back most of the initial gains, albeit very gradually. The net effect is that we're still in "wait and see" mode--but a slightly less painful version--ahead of Friday's jobs report and next week's inflation data. Econ Data / Events
3rd September, 26
Mortgage Rates Drop to Week's Best Levels
Mortgage rates finally had a decent day on Thursday after spending the previous three days inching into the highest levels in more than a year. Part of the improvement was due to comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller who said that it wouldn't be necessary to hike rates at the next meeting unless inflation data surprises to the upside. Before that, the underlying bond market was already showing some resilience in overnight trading. The prevailing pattern has been a fairly reliable correlation between bond yields and oil prices. But this time around, yields held fairly steady in the overnight
Mortgage Rates Drop to Week's Best Levels
Mortgage rates finally had a decent day on Thursday after spending the previous three days inching into the highest levels in more than a year. Part of the improvement was due to comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller who said that it wouldn't be necessary to hike rates at the next meeting unless inflation data surprises to the upside. Before that, the underlying bond market was already showing some resilience in overnight trading. The prevailing pattern has been a fairly reliable correlation between bond yields and oil prices. But this time around, yields held fairly steady in the overnight
3rd September, 26
Hedging, Verification, POS, Data Mining Tools; Rocket Mortgage and RESPA; MISMO Motors On
Broker and Lender Products, Software, and Services As AI becomes embedded across the mortgage lifecycle, lenders are rethinking how they use data to drive decisions and automate workflows. They aren’t looking for more reports. They want solutions that help them detect signals, whether it's a change in borrower status, a counterparty risk flag, or a market shift, and then act on those insights. Chris McEntee, VP of Corporate and Product Development at ICE, recently sat down to discuss how ICE approaches data accessibility, governance, and scalability to help lenders build AI-ready mortgage
Hedging, Verification, POS, Data Mining Tools; Rocket Mortgage and RESPA; MISMO Motors On
Broker and Lender Products, Software, and Services As AI becomes embedded across the mortgage lifecycle, lenders are rethinking how they use data to drive decisions and automate workflows. They aren’t looking for more reports. They want solutions that help them detect signals, whether it's a change in borrower status, a counterparty risk flag, or a market shift, and then act on those insights. Chris McEntee, VP of Corporate and Product Development at ICE, recently sat down to discuss how ICE approaches data accessibility, governance, and scalability to help lenders build AI-ready mortgage
3rd September, 26
Some Signs of Resilience
There were two separate positive developments for bonds this morning. The most obvious and actionable example was series of comments from Fed's Waller in which he basically said he wasn't interested in hiking rates right now unless inflation data surprised to the downside. Fed funds futures and bonds reacted instantly with 10yr yields ultimately dropping 2-3bps before bouncing. The less obvious example was simply the general phenomenon of bonds holding roughly sideways overnight even though oil prices moved clearly higher. This could signal some innate resilience and/or dip-buying mentality at
Some Signs of Resilience
There were two separate positive developments for bonds this morning. The most obvious and actionable example was series of comments from Fed's Waller in which he basically said he wasn't interested in hiking rates right now unless inflation data surprised to the downside. Fed funds futures and bonds reacted instantly with 10yr yields ultimately dropping 2-3bps before bouncing. The less obvious example was simply the general phenomenon of bonds holding roughly sideways overnight even though oil prices moved clearly higher. This could signal some innate resilience and/or dip-buying mentality at
2nd September, 26
Relatively Drama-Free Day
Relatively Drama-Free Day These things happen from time to time. The bond market finally had an uneventful day... sorta. This may seem like a fairly odd claim for any day where yields hit the highest levels in well over a year but those were intraday highs, and they weren't much higher than yesterday's highs. During domestic hours, 10s were mostly in a 2bp range. Additionally, there were no standout market movers for better or worse. This easily meets the definition of uneventful even if it says nothing about the volatility risks over the next 2 days. Econ Data / Events ADP Jobs 38k vs
Relatively Drama-Free Day
Relatively Drama-Free Day These things happen from time to time. The bond market finally had an uneventful day... sorta. This may seem like a fairly odd claim for any day where yields hit the highest levels in well over a year but those were intraday highs, and they weren't much higher than yesterday's highs. During domestic hours, 10s were mostly in a 2bp range. Additionally, there were no standout market movers for better or worse. This easily meets the definition of uneventful even if it says nothing about the volatility risks over the next 2 days. Econ Data / Events ADP Jobs 38k vs