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4th August, 26
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons Money flooded back into both sides of the market in a major way (albeit more "major" for the stock market) after Bessent said we could be days away from a new deal on Hormuz transit. Oil plunged to the lowest levels since July 13th and bond yields were willing to follow (also nearly back to 7/13 levels). MBS picked up more than quarter point and multiple lenders repriced for the better as the gains came in waves throughout the morning trading hours. Familiar risks remain. We've seen plenty of back and forth on the state of the war, but we can say the market
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons Money flooded back into both sides of the market in a major way (albeit more "major" for the stock market) after Bessent said we could be days away from a new deal on Hormuz transit. Oil plunged to the lowest levels since July 13th and bond yields were willing to follow (also nearly back to 7/13 levels). MBS picked up more than quarter point and multiple lenders repriced for the better as the gains came in waves throughout the morning trading hours. Familiar risks remain. We've seen plenty of back and forth on the state of the war, but we can say the market
4th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Lowest in Over 2 Weeks
Mortgage rates were a bit hesitant to follow the bond market's advice yesterday. Specifically, bonds rallied (i.e. bond prices moved higher and yields/rates moved lower). This almost always coincides with mortgage rates falling by a proportional amount. But yesterday didn't see the typical level of correlation for many lenders. Today is a different story. The additional gains in the bond market (courtesy of Iran-related headlines and lower oil prices) offered enough reassurance for mortgage lenders to get a bit more aggressive in terms of keeping pace with the market. The net effect is
Mortgage Rates Lowest in Over 2 Weeks
Mortgage rates were a bit hesitant to follow the bond market's advice yesterday. Specifically, bonds rallied (i.e. bond prices moved higher and yields/rates moved lower). This almost always coincides with mortgage rates falling by a proportional amount. But yesterday didn't see the typical level of correlation for many lenders. Today is a different story. The additional gains in the bond market (courtesy of Iran-related headlines and lower oil prices) offered enough reassurance for mortgage lenders to get a bit more aggressive in terms of keeping pace with the market. The net effect is
4th August, 26
Webcasts, Capital Deployment, DPA Tools; AI and Borrower Trust; Interview with Vesta's Mike Yu
After a general summer lull, and with talk of JPMorgan Chase’s $750 billion housing investment rifling through our biz, mortgage conference season shifts back into gear with next week’s Western Secondary with plenty of events in September and October, so book those rooms. The last time you stayed in a hotel, or maybe you’re reading this right now in one, what color were the sheets and towels? A safe bet is “white,” and here’s why. Sheet psychology is one thing, but for lenders, M&A psychology is another. Yesterday an “industry source” wrote to me, “I learned this morning
Webcasts, Capital Deployment, DPA Tools; AI and Borrower Trust; Interview with Vesta's Mike Yu
After a general summer lull, and with talk of JPMorgan Chase’s $750 billion housing investment rifling through our biz, mortgage conference season shifts back into gear with next week’s Western Secondary with plenty of events in September and October, so book those rooms. The last time you stayed in a hotel, or maybe you’re reading this right now in one, what color were the sheets and towels? A safe bet is “white,” and here’s why. Sheet psychology is one thing, but for lenders, M&A psychology is another. Yesterday an “industry source” wrote to me, “I learned this morning
4th August, 26
Hormuz Deal Hopes Turning Bonds Green at Open
This morning is offering another installment of hope for some form of progress in Iran. In today's case, it was Bessent floating the notion of possible Hormuz deal as early as this week. Markets will believe it when they see it, of course, but they're certainly willing to trade the hope. After moving modestly higher overnight, oil prices and bond yields are quickly lower in response to the headlines
Hormuz Deal Hopes Turning Bonds Green at Open
This morning is offering another installment of hope for some form of progress in Iran. In today's case, it was Bessent floating the notion of possible Hormuz deal as early as this week. Markets will believe it when they see it, of course, but they're certainly willing to trade the hope. After moving modestly higher overnight, oil prices and bond yields are quickly lower in response to the headlines
3rd August, 26
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain Monday was "nice." Bonds rallied more than a little bit and held those gains in an exceptionally flat manner all day. But there are caveats. Apart from last Friday, today's yields matched the long-term highs seen on July 23rd. Or on a more timely note, the rally didn't fully erase Friday's weakness. Additionally, strength was not a given. It required a fairly substantial drop in oil prices stepping from a fresh round Iran war optimism. This as been a fickle friend to say the least, though we'll never turn down the visit. Ample past precedent
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain Monday was "nice." Bonds rallied more than a little bit and held those gains in an exceptionally flat manner all day. But there are caveats. Apart from last Friday, today's yields matched the long-term highs seen on July 23rd. Or on a more timely note, the rally didn't fully erase Friday's weakness. Additionally, strength was not a given. It required a fairly substantial drop in oil prices stepping from a fresh round Iran war optimism. This as been a fickle friend to say the least, though we'll never turn down the visit. Ample past precedent
3rd August, 26
Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Despite Bond Market Improvement
Mortgage rates had a tough day on Friday, largely in response to bond market volatility surrounding heavy forex trading as a part of US/Japan efforts to prop up Japanese currency (not a common source of inspiration for rates). Higher oil prices didn't help. As we begin the new week, de-escalation in the Iran war pushed oil prices much lower. As has been the case frequently during the war, bond yields followed oil prices in relative lock-step. While it's almost universally true that lower bond yields beget lower mortgage rates, there are occasionally days where the correlation isn't
Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Despite Bond Market Improvement
Mortgage rates had a tough day on Friday, largely in response to bond market volatility surrounding heavy forex trading as a part of US/Japan efforts to prop up Japanese currency (not a common source of inspiration for rates). Higher oil prices didn't help. As we begin the new week, de-escalation in the Iran war pushed oil prices much lower. As has been the case frequently during the war, bond yields followed oil prices in relative lock-step. While it's almost universally true that lower bond yields beget lower mortgage rates, there are occasionally days where the correlation isn't
3rd August, 26
Webinars, LOS, Title, eNote, Processing Tools; NAR, Owner Wealth, and Dropped Coverage
Non-QM investors are “licking their chops” by using the information that the FHFA, through Freddie and Fannie, is requiring a more thorough lender assessment before approving condo loans beginning today. Non-QM is not. Who is going to say that information isn’t important? Lenders and the markets like knowing what the U.S. Federal Reserve is up to… Now Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is considering reducing the frequency of the central bank's scheduled policy meetings, the New York Times reported Friday. How much would you pay for news in advance? $100k per month? Would you ever
Webinars, LOS, Title, eNote, Processing Tools; NAR, Owner Wealth, and Dropped Coverage
Non-QM investors are “licking their chops” by using the information that the FHFA, through Freddie and Fannie, is requiring a more thorough lender assessment before approving condo loans beginning today. Non-QM is not. Who is going to say that information isn’t important? Lenders and the markets like knowing what the U.S. Federal Reserve is up to… Now Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is considering reducing the frequency of the central bank's scheduled policy meetings, the New York Times reported Friday. How much would you pay for news in advance? $100k per month? Would you ever
3rd August, 26
Stronger Start on Iran News, Stronger Data Taken in Stride
Bonds opened the trading session in much stronger territory, following the drop in oil prices associated with another round of de-escalation hopes in the Iran war. The root cause was the cancellation of planned air strikes as well as comments that suggested a reopening of negotiations. As has been the case, markets don't really care if there's much substance or probability. It gets traded moderately and instantly simply due to possibility. Bonds were at their best levels just before 8am and had lost a bit of the rally by 10am. At that point, stronger ISM Services data momentarily threatened to
Stronger Start on Iran News, Stronger Data Taken in Stride
Bonds opened the trading session in much stronger territory, following the drop in oil prices associated with another round of de-escalation hopes in the Iran war. The root cause was the cancellation of planned air strikes as well as comments that suggested a reopening of negotiations. As has been the case, markets don't really care if there's much substance or probability. It gets traded moderately and instantly simply due to possibility. Bonds were at their best levels just before 8am and had lost a bit of the rally by 10am. At that point, stronger ISM Services data momentarily threatened to
31st July, 26
Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe
Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe Friday was very much NOT on the beaten path of typical bond market considerations with most of the selling arguably stemming from Japanese currency intervention. We've seen similar episodes in the past, but today's installment came with a twist. In addition to Japan confirming it was selling foreign bonds to prop up Yen values, the U.S. Treasury also apparently got involved. It warned dealers that it could make trades to support the Yen. No one but those involved knows if that means anything beyond using the ESF to execute currency trades, but the
Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe
Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe Friday was very much NOT on the beaten path of typical bond market considerations with most of the selling arguably stemming from Japanese currency intervention. We've seen similar episodes in the past, but today's installment came with a twist. In addition to Japan confirming it was selling foreign bonds to prop up Yen values, the U.S. Treasury also apparently got involved. It warned dealers that it could make trades to support the Yen. No one but those involved knows if that means anything beyond using the ESF to execute currency trades, but the
31st July, 26
Mortgage Rates Back Near Long-Term Highs
To be fair, mortgage rates haven't been far from their long-term highs in over a week, but today's 30yr fixed index level of 6.83% is functionally equivalent to the actual long-term high of 6.85% seen on July 23rd. Higher rates are driven by weakness in the bond market. The latter can happen for many reasons. Sometimes those reasons are as simple as an economic report showing stronger job growth or higher inflation. Other times, the reasons are more esoteric. Today's bond market weakness may have been modestly influenced by this morning's Employment Cost Index, but the bigger issue
Mortgage Rates Back Near Long-Term Highs
To be fair, mortgage rates haven't been far from their long-term highs in over a week, but today's 30yr fixed index level of 6.83% is functionally equivalent to the actual long-term high of 6.85% seen on July 23rd. Higher rates are driven by weakness in the bond market. The latter can happen for many reasons. Sometimes those reasons are as simple as an economic report showing stronger job growth or higher inflation. Other times, the reasons are more esoteric. Today's bond market weakness may have been modestly influenced by this morning's Employment Cost Index, but the bigger issue