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19th December, 25
Bond Market in Holiday Mode
Bond Market in Holiday Mode Holiday mode is impossible to clearly define when it comes to its impact on the bond market. We know it when we see it, and we saw it today. Bonds paid no attention to econ data no matter how much it may seem that the 10am Consumer Sentiment numbers had an impact. Movement was minimal and not visibly tied to any other motivation. And as we already discussed this morning, Japan's rate hike was a non-event. Holiday trading randomness will get worse over the next 2 weeks before it improves in early January. Econ Data / Events Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 52.9 vs 53.4 f'
Bond Market in Holiday Mode
Bond Market in Holiday Mode Holiday mode is impossible to clearly define when it comes to its impact on the bond market. We know it when we see it, and we saw it today. Bonds paid no attention to econ data no matter how much it may seem that the 10am Consumer Sentiment numbers had an impact. Movement was minimal and not visibly tied to any other motivation. And as we already discussed this morning, Japan's rate hike was a non-event. Holiday trading randomness will get worse over the next 2 weeks before it improves in early January. Econ Data / Events Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 52.9 vs 53.4 f'
19th December, 25
Mortgage Rates Just Off 2-Week Lows
It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates despite scattered speculation about the impact of foreign monetary policy decisions. The average lender nudged just a hair higher, resulting in the 2nd lowest reading of the week. Apart from yesterday, the last day with lower rates was more than 2 weeks ago on December 4th. The coming week will be heavily affected by the realities of the holiday trading environment. There's no repeatable formula for this. We simply widen the range of potential rate movement that occurs for no apparent reason. Most of the time, rates simple drift
Mortgage Rates Just Off 2-Week Lows
It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates despite scattered speculation about the impact of foreign monetary policy decisions. The average lender nudged just a hair higher, resulting in the 2nd lowest reading of the week. Apart from yesterday, the last day with lower rates was more than 2 weeks ago on December 4th. The coming week will be heavily affected by the realities of the holiday trading environment. There's no repeatable formula for this. We simply widen the range of potential rate movement that occurs for no apparent reason. Most of the time, rates simple drift
19th December, 25
Highest Existing Home Sales in 8 Months But Don't Get Excited
Existing-home sales extended their recent stabilization in November, rising 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This is the 3rd straight increase and annualized sales are at their highest level in 8 months. The catch is that--much like several other housing metrics--Existing Sales have been stuck in the lowest of gears since late 2022. As long as we continue to operate in this range, it's difficult to draw any conclusions about bigger picture momentum. “Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month
Highest Existing Home Sales in 8 Months But Don't Get Excited
Existing-home sales extended their recent stabilization in November, rising 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This is the 3rd straight increase and annualized sales are at their highest level in 8 months. The catch is that--much like several other housing metrics--Existing Sales have been stuck in the lowest of gears since late 2022. As long as we continue to operate in this range, it's difficult to draw any conclusions about bigger picture momentum. “Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month
19th December, 25
Three Straight Months of Improvement in Builder Confidence, But There's a Catch
The December National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) edged up one point to 39. This is the 3rd straight month of improvement in the index--a development that could be confused for something encouraging. But the reality is that builder confidence is merely drifting along just barely above the lowest levels in more than a decade. This has been the case for more than 3 years now. Peeling back the layers shows familiar constraints, even if the numbers shuffled slightly. The index measuring current sales conditions rose one point to 42, while the
Three Straight Months of Improvement in Builder Confidence, But There's a Catch
The December National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) edged up one point to 39. This is the 3rd straight month of improvement in the index--a development that could be confused for something encouraging. But the reality is that builder confidence is merely drifting along just barely above the lowest levels in more than a decade. This has been the case for more than 3 years now. Peeling back the layers shows familiar constraints, even if the numbers shuffled slightly. The index measuring current sales conditions rose one point to 42, while the
19th December, 25
Mortgage Apps Still Strong vs Last Year, But Down Slightly Last Week
Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity declined 3.8% last week, according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 12. Unadjusted applications fell 5% from the prior week, reflecting a typical seasonal slowdown as the year draws to a close. The Refinance Index slipped 4% from the previous week but remains 86% higher than the same week one year ago, underscoring continued refinance interest as rates remain rangebound. Purchase activity also softened, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index down 3% from the prior week. On an unadjusted basis,
Mortgage Apps Still Strong vs Last Year, But Down Slightly Last Week
Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity declined 3.8% last week, according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 12. Unadjusted applications fell 5% from the prior week, reflecting a typical seasonal slowdown as the year draws to a close. The Refinance Index slipped 4% from the previous week but remains 86% higher than the same week one year ago, underscoring continued refinance interest as rates remain rangebound. Purchase activity also softened, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index down 3% from the prior week. On an unadjusted basis,
19th December, 25
Credit Review, HELOC, 2nd Products; Freddie and Fannie News; Cap. Markets
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software Newrez Wholesale has enhanced its partner protection program with Newrez Broker Protect, delivering broader and longer coverage for approved partners. Starting January 1, 2026, all approved broker partners receive 18 months of solicitation protection on funded Agency and Government loans. RezClub members gain even more with 30-month protection and a simplified 4-point qualification system. Plus, Newrez retains servicing on the vast majority of loans it originates, helping brokers build lasting customer relationships through protection programs
Credit Review, HELOC, 2nd Products; Freddie and Fannie News; Cap. Markets
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software Newrez Wholesale has enhanced its partner protection program with Newrez Broker Protect, delivering broader and longer coverage for approved partners. Starting January 1, 2026, all approved broker partners receive 18 months of solicitation protection on funded Agency and Government loans. RezClub members gain even more with 30-month protection and a simplified 4-point qualification system. Plus, Newrez retains servicing on the vast majority of loans it originates, helping brokers build lasting customer relationships through protection programs
19th December, 25
Slightly Weaker. No, It's Not Japan
There was a fair amount of momentum among financial news sources regarding the potential significance of last night's Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement to the U.S. bond market. While it was clearly relevant for Japan, it's hard to make the case that it had any impact on overnight Treasury trading. It's always worth remembering that Japan's biggest impacts on the U.S. bond market are driven by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and not the BOJ. In any event, today's chart shows the relative movement in USD/Yen (the easiest place to see BOJ impacts) and Treasuries. 10yr yields were
Slightly Weaker. No, It's Not Japan
There was a fair amount of momentum among financial news sources regarding the potential significance of last night's Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement to the U.S. bond market. While it was clearly relevant for Japan, it's hard to make the case that it had any impact on overnight Treasury trading. It's always worth remembering that Japan's biggest impacts on the U.S. bond market are driven by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and not the BOJ. In any event, today's chart shows the relative movement in USD/Yen (the easiest place to see BOJ impacts) and Treasuries. 10yr yields were
18th December, 25
Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss
Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss If you told the average trader that today's core CPI would come in at 2.6% vs 3.0% year over year, they would have expected a much bigger reaction than we saw today. Ironically, the size of the miss may be one of those reasons. It's so far outside the realm of expected possibilities that traders immediately assumed the presence of legitimate issues with November's data collection. Nonetheless, it was worth a moderate extension of the overnight rally. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Dec)/06 1,897K vs 1930K f'cast, 1838K prev Jobless Claims (
Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss
Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss If you told the average trader that today's core CPI would come in at 2.6% vs 3.0% year over year, they would have expected a much bigger reaction than we saw today. Ironically, the size of the miss may be one of those reasons. It's so far outside the realm of expected possibilities that traders immediately assumed the presence of legitimate issues with November's data collection. Nonetheless, it was worth a moderate extension of the overnight rally. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Dec)/06 1,897K vs 1930K f'cast, 1838K prev Jobless Claims (
18th December, 25
Mortgage Rates Near Lowest Levels Since October
Officially, there were 2 days at the end of November where the average lender's 30yr fixed rates were just a hair lower (0.02% difference). Otherwise, today's rates would be the lowest since late October. The improvement follows this morning's release of November's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation was so far below expectations that it raised new questions about just how much the government shutdown impacted data collection. The market still treated it as good news for rates, but most of the improvement was already in place before the data came out. CPI marked the last of 2025's top
Mortgage Rates Near Lowest Levels Since October
Officially, there were 2 days at the end of November where the average lender's 30yr fixed rates were just a hair lower (0.02% difference). Otherwise, today's rates would be the lowest since late October. The improvement follows this morning's release of November's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation was so far below expectations that it raised new questions about just how much the government shutdown impacted data collection. The market still treated it as good news for rates, but most of the improvement was already in place before the data came out. CPI marked the last of 2025's top
18th December, 25
Jumbo, Hedging, HELOC, Custom Newsletter Products; STRATMOR the UWM/TWO Deal
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software “The federal quality control standards under Dodd Frank for automated valuation models (AVMs) require valuation professionals to provide greater transparency in how AVMs determine credible, consistent, and objective property values. That’s why it’s important (and required) to regularly test, monitor and validate your AVMs. ICE’s advanced AVMs and self-service valuation reporting tool deliver unmatched transparency into ICE’s rigorous testing methodologies to validate output performance, coverage and accuracy of our AVMs, helping
Jumbo, Hedging, HELOC, Custom Newsletter Products; STRATMOR the UWM/TWO Deal
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software “The federal quality control standards under Dodd Frank for automated valuation models (AVMs) require valuation professionals to provide greater transparency in how AVMs determine credible, consistent, and objective property values. That’s why it’s important (and required) to regularly test, monitor and validate your AVMs. ICE’s advanced AVMs and self-service valuation reporting tool deliver unmatched transparency into ICE’s rigorous testing methodologies to validate output performance, coverage and accuracy of our AVMs, helping