Bonds Bounce Back After Mid-Day Stumble Bonds began the day in stronger territory following overnight reports of regarding a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Yields and oil prices moved steadily higher after that, ultimately rising into negative territory following Trump's UN speech. Subsequent newswires pushed back in the other direction. These involved claims of contact between the U.S. and the Iranian delegation on the sidelines of the UN general assembly as well as Trump comments regarding momentum toward a deal. None of the above was sweeping or definitive, but it was enough…
Mortgage rates didn't move much on Tuesday, but at least it was in the right direction. Perhaps more exciting is the fact that the average lender is now at the lowest levels in a week with top-tier 30yr fixed rates at 7.17% versus 7.19% yesterday. This matches September 14th's rates. Before that, you'd have to go back to January, 2025 to see anything higher. Motivation came from familiar sources as oil prices moved lower after overnight headlines regarding a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. There was a bit of a pull-back intraday but oil and bond yields moved back down in…
Here at the ACUMA event in Las Vegas, credit unions are definitely on the march for market share in a decreasing residential volume environment, given their place in the consumer’s financial landscape (“food chain”). Some of the conversation is focused on “builder biz.” Builders have been using capital to temporarily buy down rates or offer 30-year rates permanently 1 percent below prevailing market rates… they don’t want to cut prices and de-value other properties in the same subdivision as recent sales. Along those lines, Lennar delivered a sobering report, not only about missing earning…
Bonds began the overnight session in weaker territory and were mostly sideways until roughly 4:30am. At that time, newswires hit regarding an Iranian official suggesting to 2 separate news agencies that Iran could reopen the Strait within 7 days. That was the only part of the news that the market focused on, even though there were conditions and, later, denials. Oil prices dropped instantly and bond yields followed. Why would bonds move on potentially "fake" news? Because it's likely not actually fake. While we can only speculate, it's exceedingly plausible that some Iranian official did…
Sideways and Slightly Stronger It was a rather uneventful day with bonds holding sideways in a relatively narrow range after a modest overnight improvement. Intraday correlation with oil prices was fairly poor in the 8-10am window, but generally well-behaved otherwise. Short-end rates (2yr and shorter) were slightly higher on the day, and experienced some earlier volatility surround Fed's Goolsbee's comments on inflation and the rate path. The biggest takeaway there was that the Fed is attempting to assess supply shock inflation versus demand-driven inflation with Goolsbee saying he's hearing…
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates to start the new week. The underlying bond market was slightly stronger. This suggests slightly lower interest rates. The average mortgage lender lowered top-tier 30yr fixed rates by 0.01% compared to Friday. Underlying motivation for the bond market can mostly be attributed to lower oil prices, which have been a common source of intraday inspiration for better or worse. With today's drop, the average lender remains right in line with the rates they offered before last week's Fed rate hike. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
Broker and Lender Products, Software, and Services Ever gone to pick up a prescription only to be told it needs prior authorization? The request leaves the provider’s system and lands in the health insurer’s, but neither system updates the other, so you end up calling the insurance company yourself to find out whether the drug is covered. Home equity runs on the same handoffs. Valuation, title, and flood certification each sit in a separate file with no automatic sharing, so a processor logs into each one by hand just to learn where a loan stands. With U.S. homeowners holding a near-record…
While the Fed may have requested a majority of the market's attention last week, oil prices were saying "ahem... over here." Now this morning, the post-Fed trade is even farther in the rearview and oil is offering even louder reminders with the price per barrel now under $93 after cresting $106 last Tuesday. There is no big-ticket econ data on tap all week, and especially not today or tomorrow. Multiple Fed officials are speaking, but we're not sure what they could say that would tell us any more than last week's announcement/dots/press conference. Bottom line: all eyes on oil and war…
Did Japan Sell Treasuries Today? Bonds sold off medium big on Friday in a move that offered little by way of overt explanations. There were reports of "rate checks" in the USD/JPY market--something that CAN precede the selling of U.S. bonds in order to buy JPY. Notably, there were no reports of actual intervention, but sometimes these things aren't revealed until the following trading day. If this explains today's weakness (and to be clear, we're not sure it does), it would be good for the U.S. bond market as it would mean 10yr yields still held under 5% despite added, artificial pressure.…
We'd be the first to remind you that mortgage rates are primarily determined by trading levels in the bond market--specifically those for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). That said, there are days where rates don't do exactly what MBS suggest. Today was one of them. According to the bond market, mortgage rates should have been much higher than they were yesterday. As it stands, the average lender was just barely higher. The discrepancy comes down to the volatility experienced earlier in the week. Lenders have some latitude when it comes to setting mortgage rates. If the underlying…
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