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17th March, 26
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger Bonds did something they haven't done in almost 3 weeks today. They closed at stronger levels for the second consecutive day. The last time that happened was February 27th at the end of the impressive month-long rally. While today was stronger, it wasn't exactly impressive (or event that interesting). The most notable development was the fact that bonds rallied despite slightly higher oil prices. This is the opposite dynamic from certain moments last week where bonds underperformed a 1:1 correlation with oil. Econ Data / Events NY Fed
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger Bonds did something they haven't done in almost 3 weeks today. They closed at stronger levels for the second consecutive day. The last time that happened was February 27th at the end of the impressive month-long rally. While today was stronger, it wasn't exactly impressive (or event that interesting). The most notable development was the fact that bonds rallied despite slightly higher oil prices. This is the opposite dynamic from certain moments last week where bonds underperformed a 1:1 correlation with oil. Econ Data / Events NY Fed
17th March, 26
The Fed Isn't Doing Anything to Mortgage Rates on Wednesday
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates, but also a fairly decent one. The underlying bond market made modest gains even without meaningful cues from oil prices. Lately, oil price volatility has been the most visible motivation for bonds and, thus, interest rates. After cresting 6.40% last week, the MND 30yr fixed rate index is back below 6.30% today, albeit just barely (6.29% for top tier 30yr fixed rates at the average lender). Looking ahead, tomorrow afternoon brings the latest Fed announcement. The market has conclusively decided there will be no rate cut. Even if the opposite
The Fed Isn't Doing Anything to Mortgage Rates on Wednesday
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates, but also a fairly decent one. The underlying bond market made modest gains even without meaningful cues from oil prices. Lately, oil price volatility has been the most visible motivation for bonds and, thus, interest rates. After cresting 6.40% last week, the MND 30yr fixed rate index is back below 6.30% today, albeit just barely (6.29% for top tier 30yr fixed rates at the average lender). Looking ahead, tomorrow afternoon brings the latest Fed announcement. The market has conclusively decided there will be no rate cut. Even if the opposite
17th March, 26
Commercial, eClosing, Retention, Processing Tools; Wholesaler, Corresp. News; False Claims Update
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders The average person makes more than 35,000 decisions a day. Most are inconsequential: coffee or tea, paper or plastic. For mortgage capital markets teams, whose decisions shape pricing, execution quality, and risk exposure, the stakes are much higher. Fortunately, a new independent analysis from MarketWise Advisors shows Optimal Blue helps lenders make those decisions more accurately and efficiently. Lenders using Optimal Blue report an average net financial benefit of $1,006 per loan. The study also found nearly 45 percent greater
Commercial, eClosing, Retention, Processing Tools; Wholesaler, Corresp. News; False Claims Update
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders The average person makes more than 35,000 decisions a day. Most are inconsequential: coffee or tea, paper or plastic. For mortgage capital markets teams, whose decisions shape pricing, execution quality, and risk exposure, the stakes are much higher. Fortunately, a new independent analysis from MarketWise Advisors shows Optimal Blue helps lenders make those decisions more accurately and efficiently. Lenders using Optimal Blue report an average net financial benefit of $1,006 per loan. The study also found nearly 45 percent greater
17th March, 26
Another Solid Start, But Without as Much Help From Oil
Until the end of the Iran war, bond traders are keeping oil prices on their screens and comparing oil price movement against bond market movement as the first task on the daily checklist. In so doing, we see a bit of outperformance on the part of bonds this morning. While there is solid directional correlation (i.e. yields and oil were moving in the same directions at the same times), bond yields are lower today while oil is still a bit higher. Surprisingly, today's highest minute of volume happened with the 8:15am ADP data which showed its biggest drop in months. That
Another Solid Start, But Without as Much Help From Oil
Until the end of the Iran war, bond traders are keeping oil prices on their screens and comparing oil price movement against bond market movement as the first task on the daily checklist. In so doing, we see a bit of outperformance on the part of bonds this morning. While there is solid directional correlation (i.e. yields and oil were moving in the same directions at the same times), bond yields are lower today while oil is still a bit higher. Surprisingly, today's highest minute of volume happened with the 8:15am ADP data which showed its biggest drop in months. That
16th March, 26
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower There's no sense in overcomplicating today's trading session. Oil was down significantly and so were bond yields. The correlation was very strong after 4am ET with each major peak and valley aligning. Econ data was present, but not a relevant consideration for trading. Stocks were also part of the correlation game but in a perfectly inverted way (peak in oil/yields = valley in stock prices). In other words, both sides of the market remain transfixed by energy prices. This hasn't been the exclusive market mover in March, but it's
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower There's no sense in overcomplicating today's trading session. Oil was down significantly and so were bond yields. The correlation was very strong after 4am ET with each major peak and valley aligning. Econ data was present, but not a relevant consideration for trading. Stocks were also part of the correlation game but in a perfectly inverted way (peak in oil/yields = valley in stock prices). In other words, both sides of the market remain transfixed by energy prices. This hasn't been the exclusive market mover in March, but it's
16th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Recover Modestly From 7-Month Highs
Mortgage rates are based on bonds, and bonds spent last week bracing for the impact of higher energy prices. In the bond world, higher inflation begets higher rates, all else equal. Oil prices remain elevated, but fell more than 5% on Monday. The bond market responded with a drop in Treasury yields (which generally correlate with mortgage rates). Both the 10yr Treasury yield and the average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate fell 0.06% on the day. That means mortgages are now at the highest levels in only 3 months after being at 7-month highs on Friday afternoon. [
Mortgage Rates Recover Modestly From 7-Month Highs
Mortgage rates are based on bonds, and bonds spent last week bracing for the impact of higher energy prices. In the bond world, higher inflation begets higher rates, all else equal. Oil prices remain elevated, but fell more than 5% on Monday. The bond market responded with a drop in Treasury yields (which generally correlate with mortgage rates). Both the 10yr Treasury yield and the average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate fell 0.06% on the day. That means mortgages are now at the highest levels in only 3 months after being at 7-month highs on Friday afternoon. [
16th March, 26
Processing, Bridge Loan, Non-QM Products; News and Oil Prices Point to a Fed Hold; "Tip to Tail" Wave
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders “Great News! LendingPros has Pipeline Accelerator Specials for March, check them out. Plus, we're excited to celebrate joining the ARIVE platform and have combined our March and ARIVE specials for UP TO 100 BPS OFF NON-QM for loans locked from 3/10 – 3/20, 2026! Our Live on ARIVE Specials include: 25 BPS Price Improvement on all Non-QM, including Select, 12.5 BPS Price Improvement on ALL Conventional, Government and Jumbo, including Select (excludes Streamlines and IRRRLs). March Specials for loans locked 3/1 – 3/31, 2026 include:
Processing, Bridge Loan, Non-QM Products; News and Oil Prices Point to a Fed Hold; "Tip to Tail" Wave
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders “Great News! LendingPros has Pipeline Accelerator Specials for March, check them out. Plus, we're excited to celebrate joining the ARIVE platform and have combined our March and ARIVE specials for UP TO 100 BPS OFF NON-QM for loans locked from 3/10 – 3/20, 2026! Our Live on ARIVE Specials include: 25 BPS Price Improvement on all Non-QM, including Select, 12.5 BPS Price Improvement on ALL Conventional, Government and Jumbo, including Select (excludes Streamlines and IRRRLs). March Specials for loans locked 3/1 – 3/31, 2026 include:
16th March, 26
Stronger Start as Markets Hope For De-Escalation
With no massive escalation in Iran over the weekend, oil prices trickled only modestly higher during Asian trading hours and began to recover during European hours. Early domestic trading kept the friendly trend intact with some help from Trump comments that suggested a limited timeline for the war. That said, the rally was more of a linear trend this morning and less of a volatile reaction to any individual newswire. Econ data is in the back seat to geopolitical events. The same will generally be true for Wednesday's Fed announcement, although volatility is at least possible thanks to the dot
Stronger Start as Markets Hope For De-Escalation
With no massive escalation in Iran over the weekend, oil prices trickled only modestly higher during Asian trading hours and began to recover during European hours. Early domestic trading kept the friendly trend intact with some help from Trump comments that suggested a limited timeline for the war. That said, the rally was more of a linear trend this morning and less of a volatile reaction to any individual newswire. Econ data is in the back seat to geopolitical events. The same will generally be true for Wednesday's Fed announcement, although volatility is at least possible thanks to the dot
13th March, 26
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week Nothing much new happened in the bond market today and that's not great because the status quo has been for rising energy prices to push bond yields higher (and stocks lower). The short end of the curve actually improved, but that says more about end-of-week position squaring than any new development. All told, it was the least painful day of the week despite ending at the highest yields since Feb 4. Next week brings a Fed announcement with zero chance of a cut, but still perhaps some interesting commentary on how the Fed will sort inflation
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week Nothing much new happened in the bond market today and that's not great because the status quo has been for rising energy prices to push bond yields higher (and stocks lower). The short end of the curve actually improved, but that says more about end-of-week position squaring than any new development. All told, it was the least painful day of the week despite ending at the highest yields since Feb 4. Next week brings a Fed announcement with zero chance of a cut, but still perhaps some interesting commentary on how the Fed will sort inflation
13th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Surge to 7-Month Highs
March hasn't been a great month for mortgage rates and the past 3 days have been particularly bad. During that time, our daily rate index went from 6.09% on Tuesday to 6.41% today--the highest since September 4th, 2025. While that's certainly not the fastest jump we've seen, it's the worst 3-day stretch since early April, 2025. Mortgage rates are driven primarily by movement in the bond market. Like several other asset classes, bonds have not been happy about the Iran war. This is counterintuitive for those who expect bonds to serve as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, but when war
Mortgage Rates Surge to 7-Month Highs
March hasn't been a great month for mortgage rates and the past 3 days have been particularly bad. During that time, our daily rate index went from 6.09% on Tuesday to 6.41% today--the highest since September 4th, 2025. While that's certainly not the fastest jump we've seen, it's the worst 3-day stretch since early April, 2025. Mortgage rates are driven primarily by movement in the bond market. Like several other asset classes, bonds have not been happy about the Iran war. This is counterintuitive for those who expect bonds to serve as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, but when war