Latest news
7th August, 26
Cap Mkts Education, Mortgage Ops Support, QC, Flood Cert Tools; Weak Jobs Data
As many of us prepare to head to So Cal for the California MBA’s Western Secondary (800 or so registered), artificial intelligence continues to be the buzz. I recently received this question: “Rob, does it seem to you that we’re now at the same inflection point with AI as when everyone was afraid that DU & LP were going to replace all the underwriters?” Could be, and of course we still have underwriters. Meanwhile, borrowers still need help, and rates don’t show signs of going down. I received a question about “off the beaten path” routes for assistance. The Mortgage Credit
Cap Mkts Education, Mortgage Ops Support, QC, Flood Cert Tools; Weak Jobs Data
As many of us prepare to head to So Cal for the California MBA’s Western Secondary (800 or so registered), artificial intelligence continues to be the buzz. I recently received this question: “Rob, does it seem to you that we’re now at the same inflection point with AI as when everyone was afraid that DU & LP were going to replace all the underwriters?” Could be, and of course we still have underwriters. Meanwhile, borrowers still need help, and rates don’t show signs of going down. I received a question about “off the beaten path” routes for assistance. The Mortgage Credit
7th August, 26
Much Stronger Start After Negative NFP Print, But...
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) FELL 23k versus an 80k forecast. Last month was revised down as well. From a traditional market-watching perspective, this is pure rally fuel. Indeed, bonds are rallying sharply so far. Let's hope it sticks. Why wouldn't it? As labor force dynamics have shifted, it doesn't take much job growth (or perhaps any?) to keep the unemployment rate steady. In fact, unemployment dropped in today's report, though it should be noted it's offset by a lower labor force participation rate (meaning unemployment basically held steady). We've seen some shifts in trading patterns
Much Stronger Start After Negative NFP Print, But...
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) FELL 23k versus an 80k forecast. Last month was revised down as well. From a traditional market-watching perspective, this is pure rally fuel. Indeed, bonds are rallying sharply so far. Let's hope it sticks. Why wouldn't it? As labor force dynamics have shifted, it doesn't take much job growth (or perhaps any?) to keep the unemployment rate steady. In fact, unemployment dropped in today's report, though it should be noted it's offset by a lower labor force participation rate (meaning unemployment basically held steady). We've seen some shifts in trading patterns
6th August, 26
Almost Like Clockwork
Almost Like Clockwork Almost like clockwork, after several days spent mostly rallying on a headline-driven drop in oil prices, bonds reversed course as the tone of the headlines changed and oil prices bounced. That said, oil didn't bounce too much today. The rest of the drama for bonds came courtesy of a big corporate bond announcement before the open. Yields remain safely under supportive ceilings for now, but weekend-adjacent days have been prime candidates for war headline volatility. And as always, the jobs report can never be ruled out as a source of inspiration for better or worse.
Almost Like Clockwork
Almost Like Clockwork Almost like clockwork, after several days spent mostly rallying on a headline-driven drop in oil prices, bonds reversed course as the tone of the headlines changed and oil prices bounced. That said, oil didn't bounce too much today. The rest of the drama for bonds came courtesy of a big corporate bond announcement before the open. Yields remain safely under supportive ceilings for now, but weekend-adjacent days have been prime candidates for war headline volatility. And as always, the jobs report can never be ruled out as a source of inspiration for better or worse.
6th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Ahead of Jobs Report
Mortgage rates rose modestly on Thursday, with multiple lenders making mid-day adjustments in response to bond market volatility. Bonds remain highly attuned to war-related developments and the impact on oil prices which, in turn, have a bearing on inflation implications. Higher inflation begets higher interest rates, all else equal. In addition to the oil/inflation narrative, bonds also came under some pressure as Alphabet announced a large corporate bond offering. Like anything in the market, bond prices change in response to supply and demand. If a big corporate bond competes for
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Ahead of Jobs Report
Mortgage rates rose modestly on Thursday, with multiple lenders making mid-day adjustments in response to bond market volatility. Bonds remain highly attuned to war-related developments and the impact on oil prices which, in turn, have a bearing on inflation implications. Higher inflation begets higher interest rates, all else equal. In addition to the oil/inflation narrative, bonds also came under some pressure as Alphabet announced a large corporate bond offering. Like anything in the market, bond prices change in response to supply and demand. If a big corporate bond competes for
6th August, 26
Modest Overnight Weakness on Oil and Corporate Issuance.
It's as good of a day as any to revisit our primer on corporate debt issuance given that it's having an impact on bonds today. Alphabet announced a $25bln bond offering around 7:45am ET, and yields instantly moved 2bps higher. Before that, there was nearly 2bps of weakness as bonds followed oil prices modestly higher. Since the start of the domestic session, things have been calm. Econ data was a non-event. Both MBS and Treasuries are holding near yesterday's weakest levels (not a huge deal considering the narrow range). Lastly, this could simply be viewed as a quick, token
Modest Overnight Weakness on Oil and Corporate Issuance.
It's as good of a day as any to revisit our primer on corporate debt issuance given that it's having an impact on bonds today. Alphabet announced a $25bln bond offering around 7:45am ET, and yields instantly moved 2bps higher. Before that, there was nearly 2bps of weakness as bonds followed oil prices modestly higher. Since the start of the domestic session, things have been calm. Econ data was a non-event. Both MBS and Treasuries are holding near yesterday's weakest levels (not a huge deal considering the narrow range). Lastly, this could simply be viewed as a quick, token
6th August, 26
Hedging, AVM, Dashboard Tools; UWM News Turn Heads; Chrisman Demo Day Announced
Lender and Broker Software, Products, and Services What if the most important capital markets decision you're making today is based on incomplete data? Mortgage lenders don't struggle with a lack of information. They struggle with too much of it spread across too many systems. Pricing in one place. Hedge performance in another. Pipeline metrics somewhere else. By the time you've connected the dots, the market has already moved. That's why Optimal Blue created Profitability Center, a unified capital markets dashboard that brings production metrics, profitability insights, market intelligence,
Hedging, AVM, Dashboard Tools; UWM News Turn Heads; Chrisman Demo Day Announced
Lender and Broker Software, Products, and Services What if the most important capital markets decision you're making today is based on incomplete data? Mortgage lenders don't struggle with a lack of information. They struggle with too much of it spread across too many systems. Pricing in one place. Hedge performance in another. Pipeline metrics somewhere else. By the time you've connected the dots, the market has already moved. That's why Optimal Blue created Profitability Center, a unified capital markets dashboard that brings production metrics, profitability insights, market intelligence,
5th August, 26
Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady
Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady Bonds took a break from their recent trend of moderate day over day movement to hold relatively steady on Wednesday. Econ data didn't get in the way in any noticeable way. If anything, ISM data briefly helped bonds move away from the day's weaker levels. But the key underlying consideration was a stable, sideways performance in fuel prices. MBS and Treasuries were technically a hair weaker, but it's just as fair to say they were "unchanged." Familiar risks remain in the day's ahead depending on Iran war headlines and Friday's NFP.
Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady
Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady Bonds took a break from their recent trend of moderate day over day movement to hold relatively steady on Wednesday. Econ data didn't get in the way in any noticeable way. If anything, ISM data briefly helped bonds move away from the day's weaker levels. But the key underlying consideration was a stable, sideways performance in fuel prices. MBS and Treasuries were technically a hair weaker, but it's just as fair to say they were "unchanged." Familiar risks remain in the day's ahead depending on Iran war headlines and Friday's NFP.
5th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Steady at 2 Week Lows
The bond market and mortgage rates have been on the move lower recently after hitting longer term highs at the end of July. Today offered a break from the recent movement with bonds and rates holding perfectly flat day-over-day. The upside is that this means it's yet another day spent at the lowest levels in more than 2 weeks. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained at 6.75%. Flat oil prices helped facilitate the flat bond market performance. Risks and opportunities remain in the coming days. If a Hormuz transit agreement is confirmed, rates could certainly fall.
Mortgage Rates Steady at 2 Week Lows
The bond market and mortgage rates have been on the move lower recently after hitting longer term highs at the end of July. Today offered a break from the recent movement with bonds and rates holding perfectly flat day-over-day. The upside is that this means it's yet another day spent at the lowest levels in more than 2 weeks. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained at 6.75%. Flat oil prices helped facilitate the flat bond market performance. Risks and opportunities remain in the coming days. If a Hormuz transit agreement is confirmed, rates could certainly fall.
5th August, 26
Minimal Overnight Volatility. Waiting on Data and War News
With the potential for a Hormuz deal floated earlier in the week, a more substantive announcement remains the biggest opportunity for the bond market until Friday's jobs report (and even then, could supersede the jobs report depending on the details). Conversely, another diplomatic breakdown or another re-escalation would be the biggest risk. There were no no hints of either eventuality overnight and the flat trading levels in bonds confirm that. In the meantime, we'll have some B-team data in the form of ISM Services this morning at 10am ET. This report isn't guaranteed to cause a reaction,
Minimal Overnight Volatility. Waiting on Data and War News
With the potential for a Hormuz deal floated earlier in the week, a more substantive announcement remains the biggest opportunity for the bond market until Friday's jobs report (and even then, could supersede the jobs report depending on the details). Conversely, another diplomatic breakdown or another re-escalation would be the biggest risk. There were no no hints of either eventuality overnight and the flat trading levels in bonds confirm that. In the meantime, we'll have some B-team data in the form of ISM Services this morning at 10am ET. This report isn't guaranteed to cause a reaction,
4th August, 26
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons Money flooded back into both sides of the market in a major way (albeit more "major" for the stock market) after Bessent said we could be days away from a new deal on Hormuz transit. Oil plunged to the lowest levels since July 13th and bond yields were willing to follow (also nearly back to 7/13 levels). MBS picked up more than quarter point and multiple lenders repriced for the better as the gains came in waves throughout the morning trading hours. Familiar risks remain. We've seen plenty of back and forth on the state of the war, but we can say the market
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons Money flooded back into both sides of the market in a major way (albeit more "major" for the stock market) after Bessent said we could be days away from a new deal on Hormuz transit. Oil plunged to the lowest levels since July 13th and bond yields were willing to follow (also nearly back to 7/13 levels). MBS picked up more than quarter point and multiple lenders repriced for the better as the gains came in waves throughout the morning trading hours. Familiar risks remain. We've seen plenty of back and forth on the state of the war, but we can say the market