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28th July, 26
Giving Peace (And Bonds?) a Chance
Giving Peace (And Bonds?) a Chance Granted, it may be far less promising than some of the more conclusive headlines that led up to previous ceasefires and peace memos, but Tuesday delivered at least a modicum of hope that war sentiment is shifting. In not so many words, an Israeli media outlet reported that U.S./Iran mediators are getting closer to re-implementing the previous memo of understanding that paved the way toward more permanent peace. Markets take this with a grain of salt for obvious reasons, but it was enough to lift stocks and cause a small-but-quick drop in oil prices and bond
Giving Peace (And Bonds?) a Chance
Giving Peace (And Bonds?) a Chance Granted, it may be far less promising than some of the more conclusive headlines that led up to previous ceasefires and peace memos, but Tuesday delivered at least a modicum of hope that war sentiment is shifting. In not so many words, an Israeli media outlet reported that U.S./Iran mediators are getting closer to re-implementing the previous memo of understanding that paved the way toward more permanent peace. Markets take this with a grain of salt for obvious reasons, but it was enough to lift stocks and cause a small-but-quick drop in oil prices and bond
28th July, 26
Verification, HELOC, Non-QM Broker Products; RESPA Thoughts; Redwood Trust 2x Production
Does innovation in lending always means building something new? MISMO’s President Brian Vieaux challenges that familiar assumption, instead, he argues that some of the industry's greatest opportunities lie in eliminating outdated processes that add friction without adding value. Read why the future of mortgage may depend as much on what the industry chooses to let go of as on what it chooses to build next. This kind of forward thinking leads directly to strategy, and tomorrow, Rick Scherer, CMB, Chief Strategy Officer at NewFed Mortgage Corp., sponsored by Lenders One, discusses this kind of
Verification, HELOC, Non-QM Broker Products; RESPA Thoughts; Redwood Trust 2x Production
Does innovation in lending always means building something new? MISMO’s President Brian Vieaux challenges that familiar assumption, instead, he argues that some of the industry's greatest opportunities lie in eliminating outdated processes that add friction without adding value. Read why the future of mortgage may depend as much on what the industry chooses to let go of as on what it chooses to build next. This kind of forward thinking leads directly to strategy, and tomorrow, Rick Scherer, CMB, Chief Strategy Officer at NewFed Mortgage Corp., sponsored by Lenders One, discusses this kind of
28th July, 26
Another Slightly Stronger Start
Once again, bond yields dropped in the overnight session in concert with lower oil prices. Today's iteration is less swift than yesterday's, but after last week's sell-off, we'll take any green we can get. Econ data is light and inconsequential. The 7yr Treasury auction is typically not a source of drama. That leaves focus on any notable war headlines. Otherwise, Wednesday afternoon's Fed announcement remains the week's focal point for clarifying the Fed's policy stance and for the bond market to adjust accordingly. The big picture remains little-changed, but slightly less dire than last
Another Slightly Stronger Start
Once again, bond yields dropped in the overnight session in concert with lower oil prices. Today's iteration is less swift than yesterday's, but after last week's sell-off, we'll take any green we can get. Econ data is light and inconsequential. The 7yr Treasury auction is typically not a source of drama. That leaves focus on any notable war headlines. Otherwise, Wednesday afternoon's Fed announcement remains the week's focal point for clarifying the Fed's policy stance and for the bond market to adjust accordingly. The big picture remains little-changed, but slightly less dire than last
27th July, 26
Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop
Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop While the moment-to-moment correlation between bond yields and oil prices remained almost perfectly intact today, yields were less willing to follow the bigger drops. In other words, if we benchmark bonds to oil price movement, they underperformed the drop in oil prices. $139 billion in Treasury auctions and defensive positioning ahead of Wednesday's Fed announcement likely both contributed to that underperformance. Bottom line: it's encouraging to see the willingness to follow oil, but we won't be able to see more unrestrained trading until
Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop
Compared to Oil, Yields Not Quite as Willing to Drop While the moment-to-moment correlation between bond yields and oil prices remained almost perfectly intact today, yields were less willing to follow the bigger drops. In other words, if we benchmark bonds to oil price movement, they underperformed the drop in oil prices. $139 billion in Treasury auctions and defensive positioning ahead of Wednesday's Fed announcement likely both contributed to that underperformance. Bottom line: it's encouraging to see the willingness to follow oil, but we won't be able to see more unrestrained trading until
27th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Versus Friday's Lows
After bottoming out around 6.5% in late June, mortgage rates moved steadily higher this month, ultimately hitting 6.85% last Thursday--the highest level in over a year. There was a modest recovery on Friday with a fair amount of intraday changes from the average mortgage lender. Because rates are based on bonds, it's worth noting that bonds are in better shape today compared to Friday's latest levels. But if we use Friday's stronger mid-day levels as a baseline, bonds are just barely stronger. As such, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates just barely lower. The key consideration for
Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Versus Friday's Lows
After bottoming out around 6.5% in late June, mortgage rates moved steadily higher this month, ultimately hitting 6.85% last Thursday--the highest level in over a year. There was a modest recovery on Friday with a fair amount of intraday changes from the average mortgage lender. Because rates are based on bonds, it's worth noting that bonds are in better shape today compared to Friday's latest levels. But if we use Friday's stronger mid-day levels as a baseline, bonds are just barely stronger. As such, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates just barely lower. The key consideration for
27th July, 26
DSCR, HELOC, Market Analysis, Pricing Rule Tools; FHA, HUD, Ginnie Changes
In 2025, the IMF reported that, across the globe, companies, households, and countries had amassed $251 trillion in debt. Looking toward the end of 2026, J.P. Morgan has warned that interest rates on such borrowings are set to spike, owing largely to dwindling populations and diminishing fiscal discipline. JPMorgan’s Joyce Chang and team unpacked the “six D’s” that will shape the global economy under the current and surrounding Administrations: Deficits, deregulation, de-carbonization, de-population, de-globalization, and de-dollarization. Of these factors, two in particular will put
DSCR, HELOC, Market Analysis, Pricing Rule Tools; FHA, HUD, Ginnie Changes
In 2025, the IMF reported that, across the globe, companies, households, and countries had amassed $251 trillion in debt. Looking toward the end of 2026, J.P. Morgan has warned that interest rates on such borrowings are set to spike, owing largely to dwindling populations and diminishing fiscal discipline. JPMorgan’s Joyce Chang and team unpacked the “six D’s” that will shape the global economy under the current and surrounding Administrations: Deficits, deregulation, de-carbonization, de-population, de-globalization, and de-dollarization. Of these factors, two in particular will put
27th July, 26
Less Bombing. More Rallying
It's a pretty simple morning for the bond market (and many other markets). While there's no formal ceasefire, both the U.S. and Iran have indicated a pause in the tit for tat airstrikes that have characterized most of July. Oil dropped sharply on the news though it's not clear exactly how much because markets were fully closed at the time. Still, it's safe to assume a majority of the move in oil/bonds/stocks is directly correlated. This gets 10yr yields just back under the upper line of the long-term trend channel after spending the last 2 days above. Econ data was a non-event this morning,
Less Bombing. More Rallying
It's a pretty simple morning for the bond market (and many other markets). While there's no formal ceasefire, both the U.S. and Iran have indicated a pause in the tit for tat airstrikes that have characterized most of July. Oil dropped sharply on the news though it's not clear exactly how much because markets were fully closed at the time. Still, it's safe to assume a majority of the move in oil/bonds/stocks is directly correlated. This gets 10yr yields just back under the upper line of the long-term trend channel after spending the last 2 days above. Econ data was a non-event this morning,
24th July, 26
How Technical Do You Want to Be?
How Technical Do You Want to Be? There are always multiple technical lenses through which to view market movement, but the simplest involve trendlines and level lines. Yield movement has largely held inside the same high/low trendlines since October 2025, so that's a useful trend to keep tabs on the big picture. On a separate note, it's almost always worthwhile to keep tabs on the most recent long-term highs/lows. The past 2 days have seen yields flirt with both of these technical frameworks. Yesterday, we broke above the upper trendline and the long-term high. Today, we recovered under the
How Technical Do You Want to Be?
How Technical Do You Want to Be? There are always multiple technical lenses through which to view market movement, but the simplest involve trendlines and level lines. Yield movement has largely held inside the same high/low trendlines since October 2025, so that's a useful trend to keep tabs on the big picture. On a separate note, it's almost always worthwhile to keep tabs on the most recent long-term highs/lows. The past 2 days have seen yields flirt with both of these technical frameworks. Yesterday, we broke above the upper trendline and the long-term high. Today, we recovered under the
24th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Recover Modestly From Long-Term Highs
If you're just tuning in, mortgage rates had a rough day yesterday on top of a rough week overall. The result was the highest 30yr fixed rate in over a year with our index moving up to 6.85%. As has been and continues to be the case, rate momentum has been strongly correlated with oil/gas price momentum. With that in mind, it's no surprise to see rates moving lower on a day where oil prices recovered from their recent highs. That's the good news, and it brings the rate index down 0.04% to 6.81%. The not-so-good news is that 6.81% is still the highest in more than a year apart from
Mortgage Rates Recover Modestly From Long-Term Highs
If you're just tuning in, mortgage rates had a rough day yesterday on top of a rough week overall. The result was the highest 30yr fixed rate in over a year with our index moving up to 6.85%. As has been and continues to be the case, rate momentum has been strongly correlated with oil/gas price momentum. With that in mind, it's no surprise to see rates moving lower on a day where oil prices recovered from their recent highs. That's the good news, and it brings the rate index down 0.04% to 6.81%. The not-so-good news is that 6.81% is still the highest in more than a year apart from
24th July, 26
New Home Sales Regain Some Lost Ground
New home sales rebounded modestly in June, recovering some of the previous month's decline, though activity remained below year-ago levels as elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges continued to weigh on demand. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000 , up 1.6% from May but 5.6% lower than one year earlier. In the bigger picture, this sector has been broadly flat ever since the post-covid volatility died down in early 2023. Inventory edged slightly lower during the month. The number
New Home Sales Regain Some Lost Ground
New home sales rebounded modestly in June, recovering some of the previous month's decline, though activity remained below year-ago levels as elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges continued to weigh on demand. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000 , up 1.6% from May but 5.6% lower than one year earlier. In the bigger picture, this sector has been broadly flat ever since the post-covid volatility died down in early 2023. Inventory edged slightly lower during the month. The number