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25th November, 25
Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month
Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month Bonds improved only moderately on Tuesday in a move that's just as easily chalked up to random holiday-week volatility as any of the day's data/events. If we're determined to give credit to particulars, we can cite things like the 13.5k decline in weekly ADP payrolls, or the market's favorable reaction to rumors that Kevin Hassett is the front-runner to be the next Fed Chair (Hasset is assumed to be extremely dovish). Most notably, bonds took no damage from another day of upward momentum in stock prices. Yields closed out with 10s right at 4.0%--the
Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month
Best Closing Levels in Nearly a Month Bonds improved only moderately on Tuesday in a move that's just as easily chalked up to random holiday-week volatility as any of the day's data/events. If we're determined to give credit to particulars, we can cite things like the 13.5k decline in weekly ADP payrolls, or the market's favorable reaction to rumors that Kevin Hassett is the front-runner to be the next Fed Chair (Hasset is assumed to be extremely dovish). Most notably, bonds took no damage from another day of upward momentum in stock prices. Yields closed out with 10s right at 4.0%--the
25th November, 25
Lowest Mortgage Rates Since 10/28 And Very Close to 3-Year Lows
Mortgage rates moved nicely lower on Tuesday with the average lender very close to the 2025 lows seen in late October. These levels are effectively right in line with the lowest since late 2022. If today's drop seems abrupt, that's because it is. In fact, it's a bigger drop than the underlying bond market justifies. There's a reason for this and we covered it in detail back in September: Why Rates Seem to Drop More Quickly as They Approach Certain Thresholds. Rather than credit any of the recent underlying events, the improvement in rates/bonds has more to do with idiosyncratic trading
Lowest Mortgage Rates Since 10/28 And Very Close to 3-Year Lows
Mortgage rates moved nicely lower on Tuesday with the average lender very close to the 2025 lows seen in late October. These levels are effectively right in line with the lowest since late 2022. If today's drop seems abrupt, that's because it is. In fact, it's a bigger drop than the underlying bond market justifies. There's a reason for this and we covered it in detail back in September: Why Rates Seem to Drop More Quickly as They Approach Certain Thresholds. Rather than credit any of the recent underlying events, the improvement in rates/bonds has more to do with idiosyncratic trading
25th November, 25
Conforming Loan Limit Rises to $832,750 Amid Lowest Home Price Growth Since 2012
Both the FHFA and the S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller home-price indices released new data this week. The message remains consistent: home prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of appreciation continues to slow. FHFA’s national index shows prices up 1.7% year-over-year and flat 0.0% month-over-month in September after August was revised to 0.0%. The stagnation in monthly movement reflects a clear deceleration taking hold across most regions. The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a 1.4% annual gain in September, down from 1.6% in the previous month. On a seasonally adjusted
Conforming Loan Limit Rises to $832,750 Amid Lowest Home Price Growth Since 2012
Both the FHFA and the S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller home-price indices released new data this week. The message remains consistent: home prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of appreciation continues to slow. FHFA’s national index shows prices up 1.7% year-over-year and flat 0.0% month-over-month in September after August was revised to 0.0%. The stagnation in monthly movement reflects a clear deceleration taking hold across most regions. The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a 1.4% annual gain in September, down from 1.6% in the previous month. On a seasonally adjusted
25th November, 25
Compliance, Broker Products; MBA on Credit Costs; LO Strategy for Aging Buyers; Pulte and Grand Jury
Want better affordability? Lower house prices certainly helps, and this article states that more than half of homes in the United States have fallen in price in the last year. Forget interest rates: Certainly, there are fewer willing buyers when they know ahead of time that they may face increasing insurance, tax, or condo fees. (Lenders are doing what they can to control costs, and a recent STRATMOR piece is titled, “Rates Drop, Pipelines Pop: Don’t Let Fulfillment Flop.”) The strain is being seen and felt. CNBC reports that foreclosures rose in October signaling some type of distress
Compliance, Broker Products; MBA on Credit Costs; LO Strategy for Aging Buyers; Pulte and Grand Jury
Want better affordability? Lower house prices certainly helps, and this article states that more than half of homes in the United States have fallen in price in the last year. Forget interest rates: Certainly, there are fewer willing buyers when they know ahead of time that they may face increasing insurance, tax, or condo fees. (Lenders are doing what they can to control costs, and a recent STRATMOR piece is titled, “Rates Drop, Pipelines Pop: Don’t Let Fulfillment Flop.”) The strain is being seen and felt. CNBC reports that foreclosures rose in October signaling some type of distress
25th November, 25
10yr Flirting With 4.0%, But Not Because of Data
ADP's weekly employment report showed another contraction at -13.5k, but unlike last week, no one seems to care. We also got the delayed release of Retail Sales with a notably weak -0.1 vs 0.3 control group, and backlogged PPI that was just a hair cooler than expected. There too, zero bond market reaction. Thanksgiving week trading vibes are in full effect. Fortunately, the trading that immediately preceded the data was moderately stronger, leaving MBS to start the day up nearly an eighth of a point and 10yr yields down nearly 2bps at 4.011. Before the day is done, we'll get the home
10yr Flirting With 4.0%, But Not Because of Data
ADP's weekly employment report showed another contraction at -13.5k, but unlike last week, no one seems to care. We also got the delayed release of Retail Sales with a notably weak -0.1 vs 0.3 control group, and backlogged PPI that was just a hair cooler than expected. There too, zero bond market reaction. Thanksgiving week trading vibes are in full effect. Fortunately, the trading that immediately preceded the data was moderately stronger, leaving MBS to start the day up nearly an eighth of a point and 10yr yields down nearly 2bps at 4.011. Before the day is done, we'll get the home
24th November, 25
Lowest Yields in Almost 4 Weeks Despite Ongoing Stock Market Recovery
Lowest Yields in Almost 4 Weeks Despite Ongoing Stock Market Recovery There's no question that stock prices and bond yields have had more than the normal amount of correlation recently. While that created some risk of a bond market weakness in the event of a stock market correction, those fears are proving unfounded over the past 2 trading days. Granted, stocks haven't surged, but they did move back to the highest levels in a week on Monday. But bonds didn't follow. In fact, after a microscopically stronger start, yields continued to fall gradually throughout the session, ultimately closing at
Lowest Yields in Almost 4 Weeks Despite Ongoing Stock Market Recovery
Lowest Yields in Almost 4 Weeks Despite Ongoing Stock Market Recovery There's no question that stock prices and bond yields have had more than the normal amount of correlation recently. While that created some risk of a bond market weakness in the event of a stock market correction, those fears are proving unfounded over the past 2 trading days. Granted, stocks haven't surged, but they did move back to the highest levels in a week on Monday. But bonds didn't follow. In fact, after a microscopically stronger start, yields continued to fall gradually throughout the session, ultimately closing at
24th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower to Start Holiday-Shortened Week
Thanksgiving weeks can be weird for mortgage rates. This has to do with the fact that rates are dictated by the bond market and the bond market depends on real live people who can actually be out of the office on holiday weeks. The lighter levels of participation can increase volatility and cause random movement for no apparent reason. We'll cross that bridge if we come to it. As far as Monday is concerned, there's no drama or weirdness to report. Bonds improved modestly throughout the day, thus allowing mortgage rates to move modestly lower. Because rates were closer to the higher end
Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower to Start Holiday-Shortened Week
Thanksgiving weeks can be weird for mortgage rates. This has to do with the fact that rates are dictated by the bond market and the bond market depends on real live people who can actually be out of the office on holiday weeks. The lighter levels of participation can increase volatility and cause random movement for no apparent reason. We'll cross that bridge if we come to it. As far as Monday is concerned, there's no drama or weirdness to report. Bonds improved modestly throughout the day, thus allowing mortgage rates to move modestly lower. Because rates were closer to the higher end
24th November, 25
HELOC, CES, Automation, Climate Analysis Products; Webcasts and Training This Week
“Remember to bring up politics at Thanksgiving to save some money on Christmas presents.” “What do tornadoes and Tennessee divorces have in common? Someone's going to lose a mobile home.” (My father’s family is from there, so I can use that one.) Mobile homes are one segment of the manufactured home biz, and at the other end of the scale there are some grand houses out there that are made in factories… It makes so much sense. Many in the United States believe that manufactured housing, and planned developments, are the way to go, and with good reason. But elsewhere, not so much.
HELOC, CES, Automation, Climate Analysis Products; Webcasts and Training This Week
“Remember to bring up politics at Thanksgiving to save some money on Christmas presents.” “What do tornadoes and Tennessee divorces have in common? Someone's going to lose a mobile home.” (My father’s family is from there, so I can use that one.) Mobile homes are one segment of the manufactured home biz, and at the other end of the scale there are some grand houses out there that are made in factories… It makes so much sense. Many in the United States believe that manufactured housing, and planned developments, are the way to go, and with good reason. But elsewhere, not so much.
24th November, 25
Bonds Inch to Best Levels in Over 3 Weeks
It's a data-free Monday on a holiday-shortened week and there aren't any high-impact headlines or massive stock swings to spark any serious bond market movement. Nonetheless, bonds have found a reason to rally ever-so-slightly this morning. Because yields were already at the low end of November's range on Friday afternoon, the result is that today's yields are the lowest we've seen since the late October Fed day. The next 2 days have quite a bit of data in addition to running a traditional risk of higher volatility due to holiday week trading conditions. In the bigger picture, we're likely
Bonds Inch to Best Levels in Over 3 Weeks
It's a data-free Monday on a holiday-shortened week and there aren't any high-impact headlines or massive stock swings to spark any serious bond market movement. Nonetheless, bonds have found a reason to rally ever-so-slightly this morning. Because yields were already at the low end of November's range on Friday afternoon, the result is that today's yields are the lowest we've seen since the late October Fed day. The next 2 days have quite a bit of data in addition to running a traditional risk of higher volatility due to holiday week trading conditions. In the bigger picture, we're likely
21st November, 25
Bonds Hold Gains Despite Ongoing Recovery in Stocks
Bonds Hold Gains Despite Ongoing Recovery in Stocks The stock market factored into the bond market's performance on Friday. In pre-market trading stocks managed a big bounce after NY Fed's Williams spoke favorably about December's rate cut potential. Bonds benefited from that comment initially, but the stock rally quickly forced bonds to find a floor for the day. From then on, stocks continued putting upward pressure on rates, but the net effect was that bonds simply held sideways whereas they might have otherwise continued to rally. Econ Data / Events Non Farm Payrolls (Sep) 119K vs 50K
Bonds Hold Gains Despite Ongoing Recovery in Stocks
Bonds Hold Gains Despite Ongoing Recovery in Stocks The stock market factored into the bond market's performance on Friday. In pre-market trading stocks managed a big bounce after NY Fed's Williams spoke favorably about December's rate cut potential. Bonds benefited from that comment initially, but the stock rally quickly forced bonds to find a floor for the day. From then on, stocks continued putting upward pressure on rates, but the net effect was that bonds simply held sideways whereas they might have otherwise continued to rally. Econ Data / Events Non Farm Payrolls (Sep) 119K vs 50K