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16th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Recover Modestly From 7-Month Highs
Mortgage rates are based on bonds, and bonds spent last week bracing for the impact of higher energy prices. In the bond world, higher inflation begets higher rates, all else equal. Oil prices remain elevated, but fell more than 5% on Monday. The bond market responded with a drop in Treasury yields (which generally correlate with mortgage rates). Both the 10yr Treasury yield and the average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate fell 0.06% on the day. That means mortgages are now at the highest levels in only 3 months after being at 7-month highs on Friday afternoon. [
Mortgage Rates Recover Modestly From 7-Month Highs
Mortgage rates are based on bonds, and bonds spent last week bracing for the impact of higher energy prices. In the bond world, higher inflation begets higher rates, all else equal. Oil prices remain elevated, but fell more than 5% on Monday. The bond market responded with a drop in Treasury yields (which generally correlate with mortgage rates). Both the 10yr Treasury yield and the average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate fell 0.06% on the day. That means mortgages are now at the highest levels in only 3 months after being at 7-month highs on Friday afternoon. [
16th March, 26
Processing, Bridge Loan, Non-QM Products; News and Oil Prices Point to a Fed Hold; "Tip to Tail" Wave
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders “Great News! LendingPros has Pipeline Accelerator Specials for March, check them out. Plus, we're excited to celebrate joining the ARIVE platform and have combined our March and ARIVE specials for UP TO 100 BPS OFF NON-QM for loans locked from 3/10 – 3/20, 2026! Our Live on ARIVE Specials include: 25 BPS Price Improvement on all Non-QM, including Select, 12.5 BPS Price Improvement on ALL Conventional, Government and Jumbo, including Select (excludes Streamlines and IRRRLs). March Specials for loans locked 3/1 – 3/31, 2026 include:
Processing, Bridge Loan, Non-QM Products; News and Oil Prices Point to a Fed Hold; "Tip to Tail" Wave
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders “Great News! LendingPros has Pipeline Accelerator Specials for March, check them out. Plus, we're excited to celebrate joining the ARIVE platform and have combined our March and ARIVE specials for UP TO 100 BPS OFF NON-QM for loans locked from 3/10 – 3/20, 2026! Our Live on ARIVE Specials include: 25 BPS Price Improvement on all Non-QM, including Select, 12.5 BPS Price Improvement on ALL Conventional, Government and Jumbo, including Select (excludes Streamlines and IRRRLs). March Specials for loans locked 3/1 – 3/31, 2026 include:
16th March, 26
Stronger Start as Markets Hope For De-Escalation
With no massive escalation in Iran over the weekend, oil prices trickled only modestly higher during Asian trading hours and began to recover during European hours. Early domestic trading kept the friendly trend intact with some help from Trump comments that suggested a limited timeline for the war. That said, the rally was more of a linear trend this morning and less of a volatile reaction to any individual newswire. Econ data is in the back seat to geopolitical events. The same will generally be true for Wednesday's Fed announcement, although volatility is at least possible thanks to the dot
Stronger Start as Markets Hope For De-Escalation
With no massive escalation in Iran over the weekend, oil prices trickled only modestly higher during Asian trading hours and began to recover during European hours. Early domestic trading kept the friendly trend intact with some help from Trump comments that suggested a limited timeline for the war. That said, the rally was more of a linear trend this morning and less of a volatile reaction to any individual newswire. Econ data is in the back seat to geopolitical events. The same will generally be true for Wednesday's Fed announcement, although volatility is at least possible thanks to the dot
13th March, 26
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week Nothing much new happened in the bond market today and that's not great because the status quo has been for rising energy prices to push bond yields higher (and stocks lower). The short end of the curve actually improved, but that says more about end-of-week position squaring than any new development. All told, it was the least painful day of the week despite ending at the highest yields since Feb 4. Next week brings a Fed announcement with zero chance of a cut, but still perhaps some interesting commentary on how the Fed will sort inflation
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week Nothing much new happened in the bond market today and that's not great because the status quo has been for rising energy prices to push bond yields higher (and stocks lower). The short end of the curve actually improved, but that says more about end-of-week position squaring than any new development. All told, it was the least painful day of the week despite ending at the highest yields since Feb 4. Next week brings a Fed announcement with zero chance of a cut, but still perhaps some interesting commentary on how the Fed will sort inflation
13th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Surge to 7-Month Highs
March hasn't been a great month for mortgage rates and the past 3 days have been particularly bad. During that time, our daily rate index went from 6.09% on Tuesday to 6.41% today--the highest since September 4th, 2025. While that's certainly not the fastest jump we've seen, it's the worst 3-day stretch since early April, 2025. Mortgage rates are driven primarily by movement in the bond market. Like several other asset classes, bonds have not been happy about the Iran war. This is counterintuitive for those who expect bonds to serve as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, but when war
Mortgage Rates Surge to 7-Month Highs
March hasn't been a great month for mortgage rates and the past 3 days have been particularly bad. During that time, our daily rate index went from 6.09% on Tuesday to 6.41% today--the highest since September 4th, 2025. While that's certainly not the fastest jump we've seen, it's the worst 3-day stretch since early April, 2025. Mortgage rates are driven primarily by movement in the bond market. Like several other asset classes, bonds have not been happy about the Iran war. This is counterintuitive for those who expect bonds to serve as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, but when war
13th March, 26
Purchase Applications Buoy Mortgage Demand Amid Rising Rates
Mortgage application activity continued to move higher last week, though the pace slowed considerably as financial markets turned volatile and mortgage rates moved back up from their recent lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an increase of 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 6. This week it was purchase demand doing the heavy lifting. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7.8% from one week earlier and was 11% higher than the same week one year ago. MBA noted that purchase activity continues to track ahead of last year’s pace as
Purchase Applications Buoy Mortgage Demand Amid Rising Rates
Mortgage application activity continued to move higher last week, though the pace slowed considerably as financial markets turned volatile and mortgage rates moved back up from their recent lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an increase of 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 6. This week it was purchase demand doing the heavy lifting. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7.8% from one week earlier and was 11% higher than the same week one year ago. MBA noted that purchase activity continues to track ahead of last year’s pace as
13th March, 26
Modest Recovery Keeps Existing Home Sales in The Same Old Range
Existing-home sales rebounded modestly in February, recovering some ground after January’s sharp pullback, while improving affordability and slowly expanding inventory helped support buyer activity.Sales rose 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million . “Housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The group’s Housing Affordability Index rose to 117.6 in February, the highest reading since March 2022 and the eighth consecutive monthly improvement. Yun noted that wage growth is now outpacing home-price
Modest Recovery Keeps Existing Home Sales in The Same Old Range
Existing-home sales rebounded modestly in February, recovering some ground after January’s sharp pullback, while improving affordability and slowly expanding inventory helped support buyer activity.Sales rose 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million . “Housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The group’s Housing Affordability Index rose to 117.6 in February, the highest reading since March 2022 and the eighth consecutive monthly improvement. Yun noted that wage growth is now outpacing home-price
13th March, 26
UAD 3.6, AI, Processing Tools; Capital Markets Deep Dive: the Undercurrents Moving Mortgage Rates
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Increase Your Business with Renovation Loans! Renovation lending is one of the biggest opportunities for brokers looking to expand their pipeline in today’s market. When inventory is limited, renovation financing helps turn fixer uppers into closed loans and creates new opportunities for buyers. Join TPO Go on March 19th at 2 PM EST for a live webinar focused on how brokers can confidently originate FHA 203(k), HomeStyle, Choice Reno, VA, and USDA renovation loans. Learn how to structure renovation deals, overcome common challenges,
UAD 3.6, AI, Processing Tools; Capital Markets Deep Dive: the Undercurrents Moving Mortgage Rates
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Increase Your Business with Renovation Loans! Renovation lending is one of the biggest opportunities for brokers looking to expand their pipeline in today’s market. When inventory is limited, renovation financing helps turn fixer uppers into closed loans and creates new opportunities for buyers. Join TPO Go on March 19th at 2 PM EST for a live webinar focused on how brokers can confidently originate FHA 203(k), HomeStyle, Choice Reno, VA, and USDA renovation loans. Learn how to structure renovation deals, overcome common challenges,
13th March, 26
Decent Start, Lower Oil Prices, Weaker Data
There's a high bar for econ data to have any impact on bonds these days and that's especially true of inflation reports like this morning's PCE. Thankfully, no one needs to make a case for PCE having an impact, but the small amount of help for bonds came from a big miss in core retail sales and, to a lesser extent, a fairly chunky downward revision in GDP. Even then, the reaction was microscopic and hard to separate from a nice little drop in oil prices that had been underway since around 4am ET. All of that has only been worth a 1.6bp drop in 10yr yields and just over an eight of a point of
Decent Start, Lower Oil Prices, Weaker Data
There's a high bar for econ data to have any impact on bonds these days and that's especially true of inflation reports like this morning's PCE. Thankfully, no one needs to make a case for PCE having an impact, but the small amount of help for bonds came from a big miss in core retail sales and, to a lesser extent, a fairly chunky downward revision in GDP. Even then, the reaction was microscopic and hard to separate from a nice little drop in oil prices that had been underway since around 4am ET. All of that has only been worth a 1.6bp drop in 10yr yields and just over an eight of a point of
12th March, 26
War Protest: Bond Market Edition
War Protest: Bond Market Edition There's no quicker way to classify the movement we've seen over the past 2 weeks. The market is actively protesting the war in Iran--not because it's a sentient being that cares about violence, but rather because the implications for inflation, economic uncertainty, and Treasury issuance on not great. There weren't even any major developments today--just a few newswires that suggested no end in sight for the conflict or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields are quickly back up to early Feb levels, but the selling is being led by the short end of the
War Protest: Bond Market Edition
War Protest: Bond Market Edition There's no quicker way to classify the movement we've seen over the past 2 weeks. The market is actively protesting the war in Iran--not because it's a sentient being that cares about violence, but rather because the implications for inflation, economic uncertainty, and Treasury issuance on not great. There weren't even any major developments today--just a few newswires that suggested no end in sight for the conflict or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields are quickly back up to early Feb levels, but the selling is being led by the short end of the