Latest news
20th November, 24
Mortgage Rates Have Been Much Calmer, But They're Still High
Remember October and the first part of November--not because of the election, but rather because of the relentless rise in mortgage rates? Would you rather forget? You're not alone. It was the fastest rate spike since 2022, and it was made all the more memorable because it put an end to the first real uptick in refinance activity in just as long. In the days following the election, there was quite a bit of volatility in rates, but with the benefit of hindsight, we can say that the volatility has subsided. Tuesday, November 12th was the last time rates made a decently
Mortgage Rates Have Been Much Calmer, But They're Still High
Remember October and the first part of November--not because of the election, but rather because of the relentless rise in mortgage rates? Would you rather forget? You're not alone. It was the fastest rate spike since 2022, and it was made all the more memorable because it put an end to the first real uptick in refinance activity in just as long. In the days following the election, there was quite a bit of volatility in rates, but with the benefit of hindsight, we can say that the volatility has subsided. Tuesday, November 12th was the last time rates made a decently
20th November, 24
Mortgage Applications Technically Improve
First thing's first, mortgage applications increased last week, both for purchases and refinances! It was the first improvement for refi demand since mid September, when rates were well into their lowest levels in more than 2 years. Top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates were being quoted at around 6% at the time, but moved rapidly up to 7%+ in the first 3 weeks of October. The resulting drop in refi demand was as logical as it was unfortunate, and it didn't really let up until 2 weeks ago. Since then, last week saw only a microscopic decrease which, in turn, paved the way for this
Mortgage Applications Technically Improve
First thing's first, mortgage applications increased last week, both for purchases and refinances! It was the first improvement for refi demand since mid September, when rates were well into their lowest levels in more than 2 years. Top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates were being quoted at around 6% at the time, but moved rapidly up to 7%+ in the first 3 weeks of October. The resulting drop in refi demand was as logical as it was unfortunate, and it didn't really let up until 2 weeks ago. Since then, last week saw only a microscopic decrease which, in turn, paved the way for this
20th November, 24
Customer Service, Cybersecurity, Repurchase, LLPA Protection Tools; Politicians vs Policy on Mortgage Rates
“I thought swimming with dolphins was expensive until I went swimming with sharks. It cost me an arm and a leg.” Through the wonders of modern air travel, I find myself in St. Louis for the MBA of St. Louis event. Here in St. Louis, lending costs, rates, and regulations are on the minds of lenders, as well as where Freddie and Fannie are going and how. “Rob, although the funding mechanism is in place, couldn’t the U.S. Government cut off funding for the CFPB, therefore leading to it scaling back because it doesn’t have the money? And if that happens, won’t the states ramp things up
Customer Service, Cybersecurity, Repurchase, LLPA Protection Tools; Politicians vs Policy on Mortgage Rates
“I thought swimming with dolphins was expensive until I went swimming with sharks. It cost me an arm and a leg.” Through the wonders of modern air travel, I find myself in St. Louis for the MBA of St. Louis event. Here in St. Louis, lending costs, rates, and regulations are on the minds of lenders, as well as where Freddie and Fannie are going and how. “Rob, although the funding mechanism is in place, couldn’t the U.S. Government cut off funding for the CFPB, therefore leading to it scaling back because it doesn’t have the money? And if that happens, won’t the states ramp things up
20th November, 24
Geopolitical Headlines Behind Small But Noticeable Reactions
There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia. Yesterday's examples resulted in relatively modest overnight gains for the bond market. Today's example is a developing story. It involves Ukraine firing multiple UK-supplied missiles into Russia. Headlines to that effect began making the rounds at 9:20am and the result in trading levels and volumes was, once again, clear but modest. It was almost enough to help the bond market move back into positive territory after overnight weakness, but the rally
Geopolitical Headlines Behind Small But Noticeable Reactions
There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia. Yesterday's examples resulted in relatively modest overnight gains for the bond market. Today's example is a developing story. It involves Ukraine firing multiple UK-supplied missiles into Russia. Headlines to that effect began making the rounds at 9:20am and the result in trading levels and volumes was, once again, clear but modest. It was almost enough to help the bond market move back into positive territory after overnight weakness, but the rally
19th November, 24
Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains
Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains Stocks and bonds had a logical response to the threat of global nuclear war overnight, but even at the height of that trade, the gains weren't too big for Treasuries/MBS. Starting at 9am ET, bonds began giving back the overnight gains and that process continued in a slow and steady way throughout the session. MBS ultimately hit unchanged levels and 10yr yields rose roughly 6bps from the lows. The stock market made an even bigger round trip, ultimately ending higher for the 2nd day in a row. Econ Data / Events Housing Starts 1.311m
Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains
Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains Stocks and bonds had a logical response to the threat of global nuclear war overnight, but even at the height of that trade, the gains weren't too big for Treasuries/MBS. Starting at 9am ET, bonds began giving back the overnight gains and that process continued in a slow and steady way throughout the session. MBS ultimately hit unchanged levels and 10yr yields rose roughly 6bps from the lows. The stock market made an even bigger round trip, ultimately ending higher for the 2nd day in a row. Econ Data / Events Housing Starts 1.311m
19th November, 24
Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Lower Despite Seemingly Big News
Ask your favorite curmudgeonly old market watcher and they'll be happy to explain what "always" happens in financial markets when there's breaking news regarding large scale geopolitical risk. It would be a surprise if you didn't hear a phrase like "flight to safety," the most common shorthand reference to selling stocks and buying bonds. Why would mortgage rates care about all that? A few reasons... First off, rates are driven by bonds. "Buying bonds" would help rates move lower, all other things being equal. Another reason to care is that, within the last 24 hours, the U.S
Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Lower Despite Seemingly Big News
Ask your favorite curmudgeonly old market watcher and they'll be happy to explain what "always" happens in financial markets when there's breaking news regarding large scale geopolitical risk. It would be a surprise if you didn't hear a phrase like "flight to safety," the most common shorthand reference to selling stocks and buying bonds. Why would mortgage rates care about all that? A few reasons... First off, rates are driven by bonds. "Buying bonds" would help rates move lower, all other things being equal. Another reason to care is that, within the last 24 hours, the U.S
19th November, 24
Two Ways to Look at Residential Construction Slowdown
The most common interval for scheduled economic data is "monthly." That means that things like inflation, sentiment, job counts, unemployment, retail sales, and many other economic metrics are updated and released every month, even when nothing very interesting is happening. On that note, there are several regularly scheduled housing related reports. This month's installment of New Residential Construction is today's example and, as you may have guessed, nothing very interesting is happening. At a glance details: Housing Starts (1st phase of actual construction) 1.311
Two Ways to Look at Residential Construction Slowdown
The most common interval for scheduled economic data is "monthly." That means that things like inflation, sentiment, job counts, unemployment, retail sales, and many other economic metrics are updated and released every month, even when nothing very interesting is happening. On that note, there are several regularly scheduled housing related reports. This month's installment of New Residential Construction is today's example and, as you may have guessed, nothing very interesting is happening. At a glance details: Housing Starts (1st phase of actual construction) 1.311
19th November, 24
Jumbo, Non-QM, Milestone, HMDA Review Tools; Disasters and GSE Loans; Interview with Cross Country's Matt Weaver
“What do giraffes and zoning regulations have in common? They both don't exist in Texas.” I am not heading there for a while, but instead head to St. Louis this morning for the MBA of St. Louis event. I received this note from a veteran broker. “Someone please remind government officials, bank management, and industry leaders what happened when regulations were removed or not enforced. Anyone else remember 2008-2010? We need regulations as banks don't give a damn about anything but profits and stock prices. The financial, food, geriatric care, or whatever industries will not police
Jumbo, Non-QM, Milestone, HMDA Review Tools; Disasters and GSE Loans; Interview with Cross Country's Matt Weaver
“What do giraffes and zoning regulations have in common? They both don't exist in Texas.” I am not heading there for a while, but instead head to St. Louis this morning for the MBA of St. Louis event. I received this note from a veteran broker. “Someone please remind government officials, bank management, and industry leaders what happened when regulations were removed or not enforced. Anyone else remember 2008-2010? We need regulations as banks don't give a damn about anything but profits and stock prices. The financial, food, geriatric care, or whatever industries will not police
19th November, 24
Threat of Global Nuclear War Barely Worth a Bond Rally
Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction. When it comes to such matters, we must ask "who thought it seemed significant?" Quite a few people, most likely, but not as many bond traders. One big issue is that global nuclear posturing is all posturing until it's not. The bond market can't afford to freak out in response to every apparent escalation, and so it's not. Overnight gains were driven by a classic flight to safety "sell stocks, buy bonds" both in Europe
Threat of Global Nuclear War Barely Worth a Bond Rally
Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction. When it comes to such matters, we must ask "who thought it seemed significant?" Quite a few people, most likely, but not as many bond traders. One big issue is that global nuclear posturing is all posturing until it's not. The bond market can't afford to freak out in response to every apparent escalation, and so it's not. Overnight gains were driven by a classic flight to safety "sell stocks, buy bonds" both in Europe
18th November, 24
Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend
Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend It was an uneventful Monday for the bond market. Economic data was limited to the NAHB Housing Market Index (builder confidence)--a report that hasn't been a market mover since the financial crisis. And none of the news headlines had an obvious impact on trading levels. Yields started out a bit higher compared to Friday but they began improving almost immediately after the start of the U.S. business day. Based on the timing of today's ebbs and flows, European markets were likely a consideration. Despite the modest gains,
Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend
Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend It was an uneventful Monday for the bond market. Economic data was limited to the NAHB Housing Market Index (builder confidence)--a report that hasn't been a market mover since the financial crisis. And none of the news headlines had an obvious impact on trading levels. Yields started out a bit higher compared to Friday but they began improving almost immediately after the start of the U.S. business day. Based on the timing of today's ebbs and flows, European markets were likely a consideration. Despite the modest gains,
