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1st September, 26
Selling Continues And It's Not Just Oil
Bond yields broke long term highs yesterday and are moving slightly higher again today. In both cases, we're NOT seeing the same level of intraday correlation with oil prices that we've almost always seen on days without another compelling motivation for bonds. That said, oil prices still moved higher, so we can't discount its impact. If we zoom out, the correlation improves, but we can still see that bonds have some of their own, non-oil-related concerns (issuance, Fed policy, etc.). Counterpoint: tankers and semi trucks don't run on crude oil. From here, econ data will be a risk/opportunity
Selling Continues And It's Not Just Oil
Bond yields broke long term highs yesterday and are moving slightly higher again today. In both cases, we're NOT seeing the same level of intraday correlation with oil prices that we've almost always seen on days without another compelling motivation for bonds. That said, oil prices still moved higher, so we can't discount its impact. If we zoom out, the correlation improves, but we can still see that bonds have some of their own, non-oil-related concerns (issuance, Fed policy, etc.). Counterpoint: tankers and semi trucks don't run on crude oil. From here, econ data will be a risk/opportunity
31st August, 26
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse 10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July and just over 4.75% today. That's the highest close since January 2025 which, at first glance, sounds pretty gloomy. But it's worth noting that several days have ended just a bp or two below today's levels. In other words, it was ultimately a small, incremental bump. Perhaps more importantly, it was not-at-all out of character with respect to the prevailing trend. Market Movement Recap 09:33 AM MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.753 12:24 PM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse 10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July and just over 4.75% today. That's the highest close since January 2025 which, at first glance, sounds pretty gloomy. But it's worth noting that several days have ended just a bp or two below today's levels. In other words, it was ultimately a small, incremental bump. Perhaps more importantly, it was not-at-all out of character with respect to the prevailing trend. Market Movement Recap 09:33 AM MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.753 12:24 PM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr
31st August, 26
Highest Mortgage Rates in Over a Year, But Just Barely
Bonds lost ground today, largely due to mechanical, month-end trading (i.e. not due to economic data, inflation, or news headlines). When bonds lose ground, rates rise, all else equal. Mortgage rates were already fairly close to longer-term highs last week. Today's increase was just enough to nudge the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.87%--the highest since June 2025. While that sounds fairly gloomy, the average borrower wouldn't see any difference from those seen on July 23rd, 2026. [thirtyyearmortgagerates
Highest Mortgage Rates in Over a Year, But Just Barely
Bonds lost ground today, largely due to mechanical, month-end trading (i.e. not due to economic data, inflation, or news headlines). When bonds lose ground, rates rise, all else equal. Mortgage rates were already fairly close to longer-term highs last week. Today's increase was just enough to nudge the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.87%--the highest since June 2025. While that sounds fairly gloomy, the average borrower wouldn't see any difference from those seen on July 23rd, 2026. [thirtyyearmortgagerates
31st August, 26
MERS, Reno, Processing Tools; STRATMOR on Borrower Behavior; Housing Supply, Capital Markets
Grammar is important. Let’s not forget the comma… the difference between “I want you to eat, my friend” and “I want you to eat my friend.” Let’s not forget training, and I received this note. “Rob, plenty of conferences offer continuing education. Do any organizations offer CE?” Yup. Lenders One members receive it as a free benefit for all their LOs. (Contact Tricia Migliazzo.) Let’s not forget community housing, and more than 100 community-based fair housing organizations facing potential funding losses received a reprieve after a federal judge in Massachusetts blocked a U
MERS, Reno, Processing Tools; STRATMOR on Borrower Behavior; Housing Supply, Capital Markets
Grammar is important. Let’s not forget the comma… the difference between “I want you to eat, my friend” and “I want you to eat my friend.” Let’s not forget training, and I received this note. “Rob, plenty of conferences offer continuing education. Do any organizations offer CE?” Yup. Lenders One members receive it as a free benefit for all their LOs. (Contact Tricia Migliazzo.) Let’s not forget community housing, and more than 100 community-based fair housing organizations facing potential funding losses received a reprieve after a federal judge in Massachusetts blocked a U
31st August, 26
Month-End Trading Taking a Toll
Bonds were actually a hair stronger at the open, but quickly tanked just after 8am. The nature of said tankage is strongly suggestive of month-end positioning. While it's true oil prices are higher than Friday, the spike in bond yields didn't correlate in a manner typically consistent with oil being the driver. Also, there is a relatively sharp move underway in the yield curve (i.e. 2yr yields remain unchanged while 10yr yields are 5+ bps higher). Heavy curve trading in the absence of obvious catalysts and related market correlation all but confirm "month-end trading" (unless there's a huge
Month-End Trading Taking a Toll
Bonds were actually a hair stronger at the open, but quickly tanked just after 8am. The nature of said tankage is strongly suggestive of month-end positioning. While it's true oil prices are higher than Friday, the spike in bond yields didn't correlate in a manner typically consistent with oil being the driver. Also, there is a relatively sharp move underway in the yield curve (i.e. 2yr yields remain unchanged while 10yr yields are 5+ bps higher). Heavy curve trading in the absence of obvious catalysts and related market correlation all but confirm "month-end trading" (unless there's a huge
28th August, 26
Warsh Speech at Jackson Hole Prompts Heavy Selling
Hawkish Read on Warsh Prompts Heavy Selling Jackson Hole speeches are hit and miss when it comes to bond market volatility. Today's Warsh speech was something of a direct hit--more than enough to sink the battleship of anyone hoping for lower rates to end the week. Warsh's hawkishness was limited to tough talk on inflation and an upbeat assessment of the economy. It wasn't terribly different from the late July press conference, but the market viewed it as upgrading the chance of a rate hike before the end of 2026. 2yr Treasury yields (more sensitive to Fed rate expectations than the 10yr) rose
Warsh Speech at Jackson Hole Prompts Heavy Selling
Hawkish Read on Warsh Prompts Heavy Selling Jackson Hole speeches are hit and miss when it comes to bond market volatility. Today's Warsh speech was something of a direct hit--more than enough to sink the battleship of anyone hoping for lower rates to end the week. Warsh's hawkishness was limited to tough talk on inflation and an upbeat assessment of the economy. It wasn't terribly different from the late July press conference, but the market viewed it as upgrading the chance of a rate hike before the end of 2026. 2yr Treasury yields (more sensitive to Fed rate expectations than the 10yr) rose
28th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Jump to 3-Week Highs After Jackson Hole Speech
Jackson Hole is a place in Wyoming, but it's also shorthand for an annual event where various central bankers get together and talk about monetary policy. The Fed Chair almost always delivers a speech and that speech occasionally causes volatility in the bond market. This year was a classic example. Fed Chair Warsh's speech focused on inflation remaining too high and on the Fed's commitment to getting inflation back down to 2.0% as measured by the annual change in the PCE Price Index (currently at 3.7%). Even if we use the most charitable methods to estimate annual PCE prices, the index would
Mortgage Rates Jump to 3-Week Highs After Jackson Hole Speech
Jackson Hole is a place in Wyoming, but it's also shorthand for an annual event where various central bankers get together and talk about monetary policy. The Fed Chair almost always delivers a speech and that speech occasionally causes volatility in the bond market. This year was a classic example. Fed Chair Warsh's speech focused on inflation remaining too high and on the Fed's commitment to getting inflation back down to 2.0% as measured by the annual change in the PCE Price Index (currently at 3.7%). Even if we use the most charitable methods to estimate annual PCE prices, the index would
28th August, 26
Mortgage Demand Remains Stalled as Rates Move Higher
Mortgage application activity softened last week, with both purchase and refinance demand moving lower as mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in three weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.0% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 21. Purchase applications were down 0.3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% below the same week one year ago. FHA applications accounted for much of the weekly decline, falling 7% . Refinance demand also lost some ground. The Refinance Index fell 2% from
Mortgage Demand Remains Stalled as Rates Move Higher
Mortgage application activity softened last week, with both purchase and refinance demand moving lower as mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in three weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.0% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 21. Purchase applications were down 0.3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% below the same week one year ago. FHA applications accounted for much of the weekly decline, falling 7% . Refinance demand also lost some ground. The Refinance Index fell 2% from
28th August, 26
New Home Sales Give Back June's Gains
The new home market struggled to maintain the momentum seen in June, with sales falling sharply in July and inventory moving higher. The latest Census Bureau and HUD figures point to another month of uneven activity for builders, as buyers continue to contend with affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates. Sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 in July, down 10.5% from June's revised 678,000 and 6.3% below the same month last year. The monthly decline largely erased June's increase, leaving the broader sales trend little changed. In
New Home Sales Give Back June's Gains
The new home market struggled to maintain the momentum seen in June, with sales falling sharply in July and inventory moving higher. The latest Census Bureau and HUD figures point to another month of uneven activity for builders, as buyers continue to contend with affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates. Sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 in July, down 10.5% from June's revised 678,000 and 6.3% below the same month last year. The monthly decline largely erased June's increase, leaving the broader sales trend little changed. In
28th August, 26
Home Price Appreciation Edges Higher Amid Growing Regional Divide
Home prices continued to edge higher in the latest readings from FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices , with both measures showing somewhat stronger annual gains than they did a month earlier. The improvement was still relatively modest, however, and inflation continued to run ahead of home values. At the same time, the national figures continue to mask a growing divide between markets where prices are still climbing at a healthy pace and those where values have begun to slip. According to FHFA, U.S. house prices rose 2.1% between the second quarter of 2025 and the
Home Price Appreciation Edges Higher Amid Growing Regional Divide
Home prices continued to edge higher in the latest readings from FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices , with both measures showing somewhat stronger annual gains than they did a month earlier. The improvement was still relatively modest, however, and inflation continued to run ahead of home values. At the same time, the national figures continue to mask a growing divide between markets where prices are still climbing at a healthy pace and those where values have begun to slip. According to FHFA, U.S. house prices rose 2.1% between the second quarter of 2025 and the