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29th December, 25
Uneventful And Slightly Stronger
Uneventful And Slightly Stronger Although volumes picked up a bit versus Friday, no one would confuse the late December bond market from exhibiting any unexpected signs of life. A stronger open in Europe made for a modest improvement overnight and almost all of the domestic session was spent treading water at those same levels. Econ Data / Events Pending Home Sales 79.2 vs 74.9 prev Market Movement Recap 10:12 AM Modestly stronger overnight and holding sideways so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.117 03:38 PM Minimal volatility all day. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr
Uneventful And Slightly Stronger
Uneventful And Slightly Stronger Although volumes picked up a bit versus Friday, no one would confuse the late December bond market from exhibiting any unexpected signs of life. A stronger open in Europe made for a modest improvement overnight and almost all of the domestic session was spent treading water at those same levels. Econ Data / Events Pending Home Sales 79.2 vs 74.9 prev Market Movement Recap 10:12 AM Modestly stronger overnight and holding sideways so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.117 03:38 PM Minimal volatility all day. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr
29th December, 25
New 2-Month Lows, Just Barely
With another holiday closure on deck and light calendar of events, the rate market is off to another uneventful start this week. In fact, the average lender barely budged from last Friday. But it was enough for MND's 30yr fixed rate index to tick down by 0.01%. This is the lowest level since October 28th--just barely edging out the lows seen on November 25th. There were only 5 days in November and one day in September with lower rates. Before that, you'd have to go back to September 2024 to see anything lower. As always, there's never any way to know what's next for rates. The outcome of
New 2-Month Lows, Just Barely
With another holiday closure on deck and light calendar of events, the rate market is off to another uneventful start this week. In fact, the average lender barely budged from last Friday. But it was enough for MND's 30yr fixed rate index to tick down by 0.01%. This is the lowest level since October 28th--just barely edging out the lows seen on November 25th. There were only 5 days in November and one day in September with lower rates. Before that, you'd have to go back to September 2024 to see anything lower. As always, there's never any way to know what's next for rates. The outcome of
29th December, 25
Pricing Product; 2026 In-Person Events Kick Off Soon; Fraud Continues, Take Your Own Exams!
Some percentage of readers reading today’s Commentary are doing so from an airport in the Northeast, waiting for their delayed flight to depart. Whether manmade or natural, climate change and weather “occurrences” are a fact of life, and can’t be corrected with technology, but data is certainly used in predicting weather. Vendors and lenders think about data collection versus data verification versus data analysis. Is your organization doing all three, two, one, or none? (Technology: just because you can do something doesn’t mean that you should… Tired of sliding your finger over a
Pricing Product; 2026 In-Person Events Kick Off Soon; Fraud Continues, Take Your Own Exams!
Some percentage of readers reading today’s Commentary are doing so from an airport in the Northeast, waiting for their delayed flight to depart. Whether manmade or natural, climate change and weather “occurrences” are a fact of life, and can’t be corrected with technology, but data is certainly used in predicting weather. Vendors and lenders think about data collection versus data verification versus data analysis. Is your organization doing all three, two, one, or none? (Technology: just because you can do something doesn’t mean that you should… Tired of sliding your finger over a
29th December, 25
Mostly Sideways Despite Some Help From Europe
In addition to this week's holiday closure (early close Wednesday, fully closed Thursday), the econ calendar is also lacking in terms of potential sources of volatility. A majority of any meaningful momentum is most likely to come from month/quarter/year-end trading today and tomorrow, but think of that more like a caveat for any incidental movement rather than a prediction. Monday is off to an OK start with modest overnight gains driven by rally in EU bonds after their return from holiday. Treasuries gladly followed in the illiquid overnight hours, but have been less willing to do
Mostly Sideways Despite Some Help From Europe
In addition to this week's holiday closure (early close Wednesday, fully closed Thursday), the econ calendar is also lacking in terms of potential sources of volatility. A majority of any meaningful momentum is most likely to come from month/quarter/year-end trading today and tomorrow, but think of that more like a caveat for any incidental movement rather than a prediction. Monday is off to an OK start with modest overnight gains driven by rally in EU bonds after their return from holiday. Treasuries gladly followed in the illiquid overnight hours, but have been less willing to do
26th December, 25
Bonds End Unchanged After Another Quiet Session
Bonds End Unchanged After Another Quiet Session This is essentially placeholder commentary to serve as Friday's recap even though no commentary is needed this week. Bonds saw some incidental strength in the AM and weakness heading into the PM. The net effect was unchanged trading levels by the 3pm CME close. Market Movement Recap 10:31 AM modestly stronger overnight and sideways so far. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.12 12:27 PM Off the best levels. MBS now unchanged and 10yr up 1bps at 4.142 02:31 PM Holding sideways with no additional weakness. MBS
Bonds End Unchanged After Another Quiet Session
Bonds End Unchanged After Another Quiet Session This is essentially placeholder commentary to serve as Friday's recap even though no commentary is needed this week. Bonds saw some incidental strength in the AM and weakness heading into the PM. The net effect was unchanged trading levels by the 3pm CME close. Market Movement Recap 10:31 AM modestly stronger overnight and sideways so far. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.12 12:27 PM Off the best levels. MBS now unchanged and 10yr up 1bps at 4.142 02:31 PM Holding sideways with no additional weakness. MBS
26th December, 25
Mortgage Rates Match 2-Month Lows
Because mortgage rates are determined by the bond market, a boring market day typically translates to a boring mortgage rate day. But that's not entirely true today. While the level of movement is indeed very small, it only took a small movement to get the average 30yr fixed rate down to their lowest levels since the end of October. Next week should be another slow one for rates, but things should pick up progressively as 2026 gets underway
Mortgage Rates Match 2-Month Lows
Because mortgage rates are determined by the bond market, a boring market day typically translates to a boring mortgage rate day. But that's not entirely true today. While the level of movement is indeed very small, it only took a small movement to get the average 30yr fixed rate down to their lowest levels since the end of October. Next week should be another slow one for rates, but things should pick up progressively as 2026 gets underway
26th December, 25
Non-QM, DSCR, Pricing Engine Products; Conventional Conforming News
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software In an open letter reflecting on a landmark 2025, Polly Founder and CEO Adam Carmel shares a powerful message of gratitude and strategic evolution. The company has spent the past year leading the market in enterprise innovation and Generative AI, continuing to demonstrate that the era of stagnant, legacy tech is over. This is more than a milestone report; it's a call to action for an industry at a crossroads. Carmel reflects on the profound impact and shared success achieved alongside Polly's customer partners, and looks ahead to a 2026
Non-QM, DSCR, Pricing Engine Products; Conventional Conforming News
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software In an open letter reflecting on a landmark 2025, Polly Founder and CEO Adam Carmel shares a powerful message of gratitude and strategic evolution. The company has spent the past year leading the market in enterprise innovation and Generative AI, continuing to demonstrate that the era of stagnant, legacy tech is over. This is more than a milestone report; it's a call to action for an industry at a crossroads. Carmel reflects on the profound impact and shared success achieved alongside Polly's customer partners, and looks ahead to a 2026
26th December, 25
Technically Open, But Unofficially Still a Holiday Trading Session
Although the bond market is technically open today, it might as well not be. Late year holidays (Thanksgiving, X-mas, New Year) depress volume and liquidity more than any others. Today is neither an official holiday nor an early close day, but considering Christmas fell on a Thursday and the federal employee holiday, trading is just as sparse as it was on Christmas Eve. Algorithmic trading programs are doing the vast majority of market making (i.e. determining prevailing levels for buyers and sellers). Bonds will remain sideways in a very narrow range until non-algo trades force a modest
Technically Open, But Unofficially Still a Holiday Trading Session
Although the bond market is technically open today, it might as well not be. Late year holidays (Thanksgiving, X-mas, New Year) depress volume and liquidity more than any others. Today is neither an official holiday nor an early close day, but considering Christmas fell on a Thursday and the federal employee holiday, trading is just as sparse as it was on Christmas Eve. Algorithmic trading programs are doing the vast majority of market making (i.e. determining prevailing levels for buyers and sellers). Bonds will remain sideways in a very narrow range until non-algo trades force a modest
24th December, 25
Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction
Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction You know it's a holiday with an early closure if we're talking about a 7yr Treasury auction having an impact on the bond market. To be fair, 7s have had an impact once or twice in the past, but the bar is certainly high. The holiday calendar makes the bar a bit lower as fewer determined traders are required to move the whole pile. Such was the case after the 11:30am ET auction. Bonds were already in good shape before that, but the earlier gains were more incidental than data-driven. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Dec)/13 1,923K vs -- f'cast,
Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction
Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction You know it's a holiday with an early closure if we're talking about a 7yr Treasury auction having an impact on the bond market. To be fair, 7s have had an impact once or twice in the past, but the bar is certainly high. The holiday calendar makes the bar a bit lower as fewer determined traders are required to move the whole pile. Such was the case after the 11:30am ET auction. Bonds were already in good shape before that, but the earlier gains were more incidental than data-driven. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Dec)/13 1,923K vs -- f'cast,
24th December, 25
Lowest Rates in Nearly a Month
It was a short day for the bond market that underlies mortgage rates, but a good one. A side effect of holiday weeks and early market closures is a bit of random volatility without any obvious justification. When volume and participation are low, bonds can move a bit more than they otherwise might. All that to say today's improvement was luck of the draw, but we won't object to the result. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since November 25th. The caveat is that the range has been fairly narrow during that time. [thirtyyearmortgagerates
Lowest Rates in Nearly a Month
It was a short day for the bond market that underlies mortgage rates, but a good one. A side effect of holiday weeks and early market closures is a bit of random volatility without any obvious justification. When volume and participation are low, bonds can move a bit more than they otherwise might. All that to say today's improvement was luck of the draw, but we won't object to the result. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since November 25th. The caveat is that the range has been fairly narrow during that time. [thirtyyearmortgagerates