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13th March, 26
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week Nothing much new happened in the bond market today and that's not great because the status quo has been for rising energy prices to push bond yields higher (and stocks lower). The short end of the curve actually improved, but that says more about end-of-week position squaring than any new development. All told, it was the least painful day of the week despite ending at the highest yields since Feb 4. Next week brings a Fed announcement with zero chance of a cut, but still perhaps some interesting commentary on how the Fed will sort inflation
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week Nothing much new happened in the bond market today and that's not great because the status quo has been for rising energy prices to push bond yields higher (and stocks lower). The short end of the curve actually improved, but that says more about end-of-week position squaring than any new development. All told, it was the least painful day of the week despite ending at the highest yields since Feb 4. Next week brings a Fed announcement with zero chance of a cut, but still perhaps some interesting commentary on how the Fed will sort inflation
13th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Surge to 7-Month Highs
March hasn't been a great month for mortgage rates and the past 3 days have been particularly bad. During that time, our daily rate index went from 6.09% on Tuesday to 6.41% today--the highest since September 4th, 2025. While that's certainly not the fastest jump we've seen, it's the worst 3-day stretch since early April, 2025. Mortgage rates are driven primarily by movement in the bond market. Like several other asset classes, bonds have not been happy about the Iran war. This is counterintuitive for those who expect bonds to serve as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, but when war
Mortgage Rates Surge to 7-Month Highs
March hasn't been a great month for mortgage rates and the past 3 days have been particularly bad. During that time, our daily rate index went from 6.09% on Tuesday to 6.41% today--the highest since September 4th, 2025. While that's certainly not the fastest jump we've seen, it's the worst 3-day stretch since early April, 2025. Mortgage rates are driven primarily by movement in the bond market. Like several other asset classes, bonds have not been happy about the Iran war. This is counterintuitive for those who expect bonds to serve as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, but when war
13th March, 26
Purchase Applications Buoy Mortgage Demand Amid Rising Rates
Mortgage application activity continued to move higher last week, though the pace slowed considerably as financial markets turned volatile and mortgage rates moved back up from their recent lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an increase of 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 6. This week it was purchase demand doing the heavy lifting. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7.8% from one week earlier and was 11% higher than the same week one year ago. MBA noted that purchase activity continues to track ahead of last year’s pace as
Purchase Applications Buoy Mortgage Demand Amid Rising Rates
Mortgage application activity continued to move higher last week, though the pace slowed considerably as financial markets turned volatile and mortgage rates moved back up from their recent lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an increase of 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 6. This week it was purchase demand doing the heavy lifting. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7.8% from one week earlier and was 11% higher than the same week one year ago. MBA noted that purchase activity continues to track ahead of last year’s pace as
13th March, 26
Modest Recovery Keeps Existing Home Sales in The Same Old Range
Existing-home sales rebounded modestly in February, recovering some ground after January’s sharp pullback, while improving affordability and slowly expanding inventory helped support buyer activity.Sales rose 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million . “Housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The group’s Housing Affordability Index rose to 117.6 in February, the highest reading since March 2022 and the eighth consecutive monthly improvement. Yun noted that wage growth is now outpacing home-price
Modest Recovery Keeps Existing Home Sales in The Same Old Range
Existing-home sales rebounded modestly in February, recovering some ground after January’s sharp pullback, while improving affordability and slowly expanding inventory helped support buyer activity.Sales rose 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million . “Housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The group’s Housing Affordability Index rose to 117.6 in February, the highest reading since March 2022 and the eighth consecutive monthly improvement. Yun noted that wage growth is now outpacing home-price
13th March, 26
UAD 3.6, AI, Processing Tools; Capital Markets Deep Dive: the Undercurrents Moving Mortgage Rates
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Increase Your Business with Renovation Loans! Renovation lending is one of the biggest opportunities for brokers looking to expand their pipeline in today’s market. When inventory is limited, renovation financing helps turn fixer uppers into closed loans and creates new opportunities for buyers. Join TPO Go on March 19th at 2 PM EST for a live webinar focused on how brokers can confidently originate FHA 203(k), HomeStyle, Choice Reno, VA, and USDA renovation loans. Learn how to structure renovation deals, overcome common challenges,
UAD 3.6, AI, Processing Tools; Capital Markets Deep Dive: the Undercurrents Moving Mortgage Rates
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Increase Your Business with Renovation Loans! Renovation lending is one of the biggest opportunities for brokers looking to expand their pipeline in today’s market. When inventory is limited, renovation financing helps turn fixer uppers into closed loans and creates new opportunities for buyers. Join TPO Go on March 19th at 2 PM EST for a live webinar focused on how brokers can confidently originate FHA 203(k), HomeStyle, Choice Reno, VA, and USDA renovation loans. Learn how to structure renovation deals, overcome common challenges,
13th March, 26
Decent Start, Lower Oil Prices, Weaker Data
There's a high bar for econ data to have any impact on bonds these days and that's especially true of inflation reports like this morning's PCE. Thankfully, no one needs to make a case for PCE having an impact, but the small amount of help for bonds came from a big miss in core retail sales and, to a lesser extent, a fairly chunky downward revision in GDP. Even then, the reaction was microscopic and hard to separate from a nice little drop in oil prices that had been underway since around 4am ET. All of that has only been worth a 1.6bp drop in 10yr yields and just over an eight of a point of
Decent Start, Lower Oil Prices, Weaker Data
There's a high bar for econ data to have any impact on bonds these days and that's especially true of inflation reports like this morning's PCE. Thankfully, no one needs to make a case for PCE having an impact, but the small amount of help for bonds came from a big miss in core retail sales and, to a lesser extent, a fairly chunky downward revision in GDP. Even then, the reaction was microscopic and hard to separate from a nice little drop in oil prices that had been underway since around 4am ET. All of that has only been worth a 1.6bp drop in 10yr yields and just over an eight of a point of
12th March, 26
War Protest: Bond Market Edition
War Protest: Bond Market Edition There's no quicker way to classify the movement we've seen over the past 2 weeks. The market is actively protesting the war in Iran--not because it's a sentient being that cares about violence, but rather because the implications for inflation, economic uncertainty, and Treasury issuance on not great. There weren't even any major developments today--just a few newswires that suggested no end in sight for the conflict or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields are quickly back up to early Feb levels, but the selling is being led by the short end of the
War Protest: Bond Market Edition
War Protest: Bond Market Edition There's no quicker way to classify the movement we've seen over the past 2 weeks. The market is actively protesting the war in Iran--not because it's a sentient being that cares about violence, but rather because the implications for inflation, economic uncertainty, and Treasury issuance on not great. There weren't even any major developments today--just a few newswires that suggested no end in sight for the conflict or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields are quickly back up to early Feb levels, but the selling is being led by the short end of the
12th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Spike to 2026 Highs
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market. Although bonds only experienced moderate, steady weakness throughout the day, mortgage rates lurched higher by an amount typically seen when the market is reacting to big, breaking news. But there wasn't any of that sort of news on tap today--just downbeat updates that reinforced a longer timeline for geopolitical disruptions. The bigger issue for mortgage rates is that they often experience heightened volatility when they pass through the 6.25% level. Due to the underlying structure of the mortgage market, 6.25% is sort of a dead zone. If
Mortgage Rates Spike to 2026 Highs
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market. Although bonds only experienced moderate, steady weakness throughout the day, mortgage rates lurched higher by an amount typically seen when the market is reacting to big, breaking news. But there wasn't any of that sort of news on tap today--just downbeat updates that reinforced a longer timeline for geopolitical disruptions. The bigger issue for mortgage rates is that they often experience heightened volatility when they pass through the 6.25% level. Due to the underlying structure of the mortgage market, 6.25% is sort of a dead zone. If
12th March, 26
Bonds Remain On The Run
The bond market doesn't look like it can catch a break as long as war persists in Iran. If it's not oil, it's fertilizer, nat gas, military spending, or a host of other inflationary knock-on effects that bode ill for the fixed income sector. Yes, the implied economic fallout would help offset the inflationary impulses, but not enough for rates to make downward progress just yet. Bonds will need to get past the point of pricing in another big inflation reckoning for that to happen. Until then, downward progress will be tough to sustain. This morning's headlines (which involve more reports of
Bonds Remain On The Run
The bond market doesn't look like it can catch a break as long as war persists in Iran. If it's not oil, it's fertilizer, nat gas, military spending, or a host of other inflationary knock-on effects that bode ill for the fixed income sector. Yes, the implied economic fallout would help offset the inflationary impulses, but not enough for rates to make downward progress just yet. Bonds will need to get past the point of pricing in another big inflation reckoning for that to happen. Until then, downward progress will be tough to sustain. This morning's headlines (which involve more reports of
12th March, 26
AI Roadmap, UAD 3.6, Repurchase Tools; False Claims Act Rumors; STRATMOR's Subservicing Survey
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Home equity lending is having a moment. The challenge for many lenders? The process behind it still looks like 2015: manual workflows, vendor emails, and too much operational juggling. FirstClose is hosting a 30-minute webinar on March 19 at 1 PM CT that examines how lenders are modernizing home equity operations to move faster without adding complexity. The session will include a walkthrough of the FirstClose platform and Intelligent Order Management Automation, showing how lenders can streamline vendor ordering, reduce manual
AI Roadmap, UAD 3.6, Repurchase Tools; False Claims Act Rumors; STRATMOR's Subservicing Survey
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Home equity lending is having a moment. The challenge for many lenders? The process behind it still looks like 2015: manual workflows, vendor emails, and too much operational juggling. FirstClose is hosting a 30-minute webinar on March 19 at 1 PM CT that examines how lenders are modernizing home equity operations to move faster without adding complexity. The session will include a walkthrough of the FirstClose platform and Intelligent Order Management Automation, showing how lenders can streamline vendor ordering, reduce manual