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4th February, 26
Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Steady at 2-Week Highs
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit its highest levels in 2 weeks yesterday. The caveat was that the range has been very narrow during these 2 weeks. As such, by remaining unchanged versus yesterday, today's rates are part of the same narrow range (6.15-6.20% for MND's index). There were two relevant economic reports this morning as well as an update from the Treasury department regarding borrowing expectations. The latter is important for interest rates because the level of Treasury issuance is a primary ingredient in determining almost any consumer lending rate in the U.S.
Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Steady at 2-Week Highs
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit its highest levels in 2 weeks yesterday. The caveat was that the range has been very narrow during these 2 weeks. As such, by remaining unchanged versus yesterday, today's rates are part of the same narrow range (6.15-6.20% for MND's index). There were two relevant economic reports this morning as well as an update from the Treasury department regarding borrowing expectations. The latter is important for interest rates because the level of Treasury issuance is a primary ingredient in determining almost any consumer lending rate in the U.S.
4th February, 26
Blockchain, NOO HELOC, RON Tools; Better.com CEO's Thoughts; IMB Conference Observations; CFPB Update
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Can AI help you spot the lending bias you can’t see? In his CEO Magazine Podcast interview, Optimal Blue CEO Joe Tyrrell shares the company’s platform-wide AI strategy to help reduce human bias in lending decisions. Instead of replacing lending teams, AI at Optimal Blue is built as a suite of assistants, including Originator Assistant in the Optimal Blue® PPE, which reviews a wide range of loan programs and surfaces options a human might not typically consider. Grounded in clearly defined use cases, transparent prompts, extensive
Blockchain, NOO HELOC, RON Tools; Better.com CEO's Thoughts; IMB Conference Observations; CFPB Update
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Can AI help you spot the lending bias you can’t see? In his CEO Magazine Podcast interview, Optimal Blue CEO Joe Tyrrell shares the company’s platform-wide AI strategy to help reduce human bias in lending decisions. Instead of replacing lending teams, AI at Optimal Blue is built as a suite of assistants, including Originator Assistant in the Optimal Blue® PPE, which reviews a wide range of loan programs and surfaces options a human might not typically consider. Grounded in clearly defined use cases, transparent prompts, extensive
4th February, 26
Waiting on ISM Services as Early Data Fails to Inspire
Today's two key reports are ADP Employment (8:15am ET) and ISM Services (10am ET). The former came out a bit softer than expected, but bonds didn't react. 15 minutes later, Treasury released financing estimates for the quarter. These were as-expected and unchanged from the previous quarter, but Treasury noted that issuance would likely need to increase in fiscal year 2027. Higher issuance = higher rates, all else equal. This wasn't necessarily a surprise or even "new" info, but the reminder may have been worth a bit of selling at 8:30am. ISM remains the day's biggest
Waiting on ISM Services as Early Data Fails to Inspire
Today's two key reports are ADP Employment (8:15am ET) and ISM Services (10am ET). The former came out a bit softer than expected, but bonds didn't react. 15 minutes later, Treasury released financing estimates for the quarter. These were as-expected and unchanged from the previous quarter, but Treasury noted that issuance would likely need to increase in fiscal year 2027. Higher issuance = higher rates, all else equal. This wasn't necessarily a surprise or even "new" info, but the reminder may have been worth a bit of selling at 8:30am. ISM remains the day's biggest
3rd February, 26
Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere
Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere The legend of the bond market's extreme apathy is increasingly making the rounds in financial circles. Bond issuance, inflation, and economic strength are not seen surging enough to put huge upward pressure on longer-term rates. And without a big downturn in 2 of those 3 variables, there's no major impetus for a big drop in rates. So we wait (and wait and wait) while bonds gyrate in micro-ranges. Add today to the list. It might have been more volatile if we had the econ data that was postponed due to the shutdown, but JOLTS wouldn't be enough to
Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere
Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere The legend of the bond market's extreme apathy is increasingly making the rounds in financial circles. Bond issuance, inflation, and economic strength are not seen surging enough to put huge upward pressure on longer-term rates. And without a big downturn in 2 of those 3 variables, there's no major impetus for a big drop in rates. So we wait (and wait and wait) while bonds gyrate in micro-ranges. Add today to the list. It might have been more volatile if we had the econ data that was postponed due to the shutdown, but JOLTS wouldn't be enough to
3rd February, 26
Mortgage Rates Drift Up to 2-Week Highs
The bad news: mortgage rates moved up to their highest levels in 2 weeks today. The good news: the rate range has been very narrow during that time, so there's not too much of a difference between 2-week highs (6.20%) and lows (6.15%). Today's move wasn't a product of anything that happened today. Rather, the culprit was the focal point of our coverage yesterday. Specifically, an economic report on the manufacturing sector was exceptionally strong yesterday. The result was a weaker bond market and, thus, an implication for higher rates. But the report came out after most mortgage
Mortgage Rates Drift Up to 2-Week Highs
The bad news: mortgage rates moved up to their highest levels in 2 weeks today. The good news: the rate range has been very narrow during that time, so there's not too much of a difference between 2-week highs (6.20%) and lows (6.15%). Today's move wasn't a product of anything that happened today. Rather, the culprit was the focal point of our coverage yesterday. Specifically, an economic report on the manufacturing sector was exceptionally strong yesterday. The result was a weaker bond market and, thus, an implication for higher rates. But the report came out after most mortgage
3rd February, 26
Customer Intelligence, HELOC, Uplist's Recapture, Construction Products; Rates Are Driven by Markets; IMB Hallway Report
Regarding rate movement, the bond market often does the Fed’s job for it, and so whatever the Fed’s Open Market Committee actually does is almost an afterthought. The partial U.S. Government shutdown is hurting economic activity, and companies like Newrez are posting and how the shutdown is impacting lending. The FHA Office of Single Family Housing released FHA INFO 2026-05 and some of its mortgage insurance programs “will be operational but with limited services. Under a funding lapse, FHA’s actions and decisions about the operations that continue are governed by the U.S. Constitution
Customer Intelligence, HELOC, Uplist's Recapture, Construction Products; Rates Are Driven by Markets; IMB Hallway Report
Regarding rate movement, the bond market often does the Fed’s job for it, and so whatever the Fed’s Open Market Committee actually does is almost an afterthought. The partial U.S. Government shutdown is hurting economic activity, and companies like Newrez are posting and how the shutdown is impacting lending. The FHA Office of Single Family Housing released FHA INFO 2026-05 and some of its mortgage insurance programs “will be operational but with limited services. Under a funding lapse, FHA’s actions and decisions about the operations that continue are governed by the U.S. Constitution
3rd February, 26
Data-Free Day Thanks to Shutdown
While not as disruptive or publicized as the most recent example, there's a partial government shutdown underway. Even if the House passes the funding legislation today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has already said they will not be publishing either of this week's key reports (JOLTS, which would have been today, and Friday's jobs report). This is consistent with our understanding of the way BLS works. In fact, it's not uncommon for the jobs report to come out on the 2nd Friday in March simply because there weren't enough work days in February to compile the data. To some extent,
Data-Free Day Thanks to Shutdown
While not as disruptive or publicized as the most recent example, there's a partial government shutdown underway. Even if the House passes the funding legislation today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has already said they will not be publishing either of this week's key reports (JOLTS, which would have been today, and Friday's jobs report). This is consistent with our understanding of the way BLS works. In fact, it's not uncommon for the jobs report to come out on the 2nd Friday in March simply because there weren't enough work days in February to compile the data. To some extent,
2nd February, 26
Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday
Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday Very little changed after this morning's commentary. At the time, we were watching bonds sell-off somewhat sharply in response to an exceptionally strong ISM Manufacturing report. As is often the case with data-driven selling sprees, the worst was over in the first 10 minutes and the rest of the day was broadly sideways. That said, it wasn't without its interesting updates. Chief among them was news that this Friday's jobs report would be postponed due to the government shutdown (and same story with tomorrow's JOLTS data).
Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday
Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday Very little changed after this morning's commentary. At the time, we were watching bonds sell-off somewhat sharply in response to an exceptionally strong ISM Manufacturing report. As is often the case with data-driven selling sprees, the worst was over in the first 10 minutes and the rest of the day was broadly sideways. That said, it wasn't without its interesting updates. Chief among them was news that this Friday's jobs report would be postponed due to the government shutdown (and same story with tomorrow's JOLTS data).
2nd February, 26
Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Higher Despite Bond Market Weakness
Weakness in the bond market generally means higher mortgage rates. Today was no exception. A key economic report on the manufacturing sector was much stronger than expected. Bonds lost ground as a result and mortgage lenders were forced to set rates higher than Friday's latest levels. But the caveat is that the average lender was only marginally higher. The level of movement in the bond market suggested a bigger change. In other words, mortgage rates fared a bit better than the market suggested. When this happens, it's most frequently due to timing. If bonds lose ground moderately, but those
Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Higher Despite Bond Market Weakness
Weakness in the bond market generally means higher mortgage rates. Today was no exception. A key economic report on the manufacturing sector was much stronger than expected. Bonds lost ground as a result and mortgage lenders were forced to set rates higher than Friday's latest levels. But the caveat is that the average lender was only marginally higher. The level of movement in the bond market suggested a bigger change. In other words, mortgage rates fared a bit better than the market suggested. When this happens, it's most frequently due to timing. If bonds lose ground moderately, but those
2nd February, 26
Mgt. Review, BBYS, Digital HELOC, Non-QM Products; Opinions on Credit Fixes; IMB Underway
There are lots of rumors about more M&A. For example, Maxwell, a POS and mortgage origination services company, being acquired by Place, a real estate tech platform and real estate brokerage company. Place (with its Mortgage Calculator App) is rumored to be heavily involved (owns?) Envoy Mortgage. Word in the hallways that Place, and others, will continue to strive toward creating end-to-end platforms of real estate through mortgage origination. Sure enough, on today’s Now Next Later at 1PM ET, presented by Depth, Eric Lapin of Finfusion Consulting will join the conversation on emerging
Mgt. Review, BBYS, Digital HELOC, Non-QM Products; Opinions on Credit Fixes; IMB Underway
There are lots of rumors about more M&A. For example, Maxwell, a POS and mortgage origination services company, being acquired by Place, a real estate tech platform and real estate brokerage company. Place (with its Mortgage Calculator App) is rumored to be heavily involved (owns?) Envoy Mortgage. Word in the hallways that Place, and others, will continue to strive toward creating end-to-end platforms of real estate through mortgage origination. Sure enough, on today’s Now Next Later at 1PM ET, presented by Depth, Eric Lapin of Finfusion Consulting will join the conversation on emerging