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3rd March, 26
Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses
Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses The bond market was visibly pulled in two directions on Tuesday. This played out in phases, with AM weakness followed by a gradual recovery. But it can also be assumed to be playing out at any given moment as bonds listen to the voices arguing in their own mind. One voice says yields need to go higher due to inflation expectations and Treasury issuance implications. The other says that Treasuries are still a global safe haven amid geopolitical uncertainty (and, to a lesser extent, that the sell-off through 9am this morning may have been a tad overdone).&
Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses
Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses The bond market was visibly pulled in two directions on Tuesday. This played out in phases, with AM weakness followed by a gradual recovery. But it can also be assumed to be playing out at any given moment as bonds listen to the voices arguing in their own mind. One voice says yields need to go higher due to inflation expectations and Treasury issuance implications. The other says that Treasuries are still a global safe haven amid geopolitical uncertainty (and, to a lesser extent, that the sell-off through 9am this morning may have been a tad overdone).&
3rd March, 26
Mortgage Rates Recover Moderately After Starting at 3-Week Highs
After spending the entirety of last week calmy holding the lowest levels in more than 3 years, mortgage rates jumped sharply higher yesterday. That said, everything's relative. Even after that "sharp" increase, the average rate was still one of the lowest in years apart from last week. There was slightly more cause for concern this morning as the underlying bond market increasingly swooned. When bonds lost ground, rates move higher. But unlike yesterday, which involved pervasive gradual weakness throughout, today saw a meaningful recovery shortly after the market opened. Bonds
Mortgage Rates Recover Moderately After Starting at 3-Week Highs
After spending the entirety of last week calmy holding the lowest levels in more than 3 years, mortgage rates jumped sharply higher yesterday. That said, everything's relative. Even after that "sharp" increase, the average rate was still one of the lowest in years apart from last week. There was slightly more cause for concern this morning as the underlying bond market increasingly swooned. When bonds lost ground, rates move higher. But unlike yesterday, which involved pervasive gradual weakness throughout, today saw a meaningful recovery shortly after the market opened. Bonds
3rd March, 26
BBYS, Lead Management, U/W, Processing, Verification Tools; Recapture Webinar; Capital Markets
At the L1 Summit, technology is obviously a key segment of many sessions. Tech is helping larger companies in their moves in controlling the borrower funnel. Artificial intelligence (AI) with its pros and cons but hoped-for benefits to productivity and therefore cost reduction, is a common conversation topic. Third party provider offerings are also theme. especially when it comes to technology and marketing. “Rob, I know that you have job ads in your Commentary, but we’re looking for a CRM that works well with lenders. Can you recommend someone?” In our Marketplace we have Total Expert,
BBYS, Lead Management, U/W, Processing, Verification Tools; Recapture Webinar; Capital Markets
At the L1 Summit, technology is obviously a key segment of many sessions. Tech is helping larger companies in their moves in controlling the borrower funnel. Artificial intelligence (AI) with its pros and cons but hoped-for benefits to productivity and therefore cost reduction, is a common conversation topic. Third party provider offerings are also theme. especially when it comes to technology and marketing. “Rob, I know that you have job ads in your Commentary, but we’re looking for a CRM that works well with lenders. Can you recommend someone?” In our Marketplace we have Total Expert,
3rd March, 26
Heavy Overnight Selling But Inflation Narrative Remains in Doubt
Bonds sold off again overnight with 10yr yields now challenging the 4.10% technical level in early trading. MBS are down another 3/8ths, roughly. And there's stronger correlation with higher oil prices and rising bond yields. So in light of our contrarian take yesterday, are we now forced to acquiesce to the "higher inflation/higher rates" narrative? Not entirely. While there's no doubt that a certain contingent of smaller traders are drawing that conclusion, and while there's better evidence for it in some of today's charts, there remains a problematic reality in an even simpler chart.
Heavy Overnight Selling But Inflation Narrative Remains in Doubt
Bonds sold off again overnight with 10yr yields now challenging the 4.10% technical level in early trading. MBS are down another 3/8ths, roughly. And there's stronger correlation with higher oil prices and rising bond yields. So in light of our contrarian take yesterday, are we now forced to acquiesce to the "higher inflation/higher rates" narrative? Not entirely. While there's no doubt that a certain contingent of smaller traders are drawing that conclusion, and while there's better evidence for it in some of today's charts, there remains a problematic reality in an even simpler chart.
2nd March, 26
Big Bad Day For Bonds. What's Next?
Big Bad Day For Bonds. What's Next? Bonds sold off early and aggressively on Monday in a move that most onlookers are quickly attributing to geopolitics. Specifically, the thought is that higher oil prices imply higher inflation and, thus, higher rates. While some traders probably woke up and decided to sell bonds based on this logic, they didn't account for the pace of the sell-off. Rather, it was a perfect storm of timing and technicals with Friday's month-end positioning leaving bonds overbought and well through the 4% technical floor. Today ran the risk of being a selling day anyway, but
Big Bad Day For Bonds. What's Next?
Big Bad Day For Bonds. What's Next? Bonds sold off early and aggressively on Monday in a move that most onlookers are quickly attributing to geopolitics. Specifically, the thought is that higher oil prices imply higher inflation and, thus, higher rates. While some traders probably woke up and decided to sell bonds based on this logic, they didn't account for the pace of the sell-off. Rather, it was a perfect storm of timing and technicals with Friday's month-end positioning leaving bonds overbought and well through the 4% technical floor. Today ran the risk of being a selling day anyway, but
2nd March, 26
Mortgage Rates Jump Back Into The 6's
Mortgage rates began the new week with a fairly quick jump back into the low 6% range (top tier 30yr fixed rate for the average lender). With the news cycle very focused on developments in Iran, most coverage attempts to correlate geopolitical events with market movement. The only legitimate way to do this would be to say that upward pressure on oil prices is translating to higher inflation implications and therefore higher rates. At many times in the past, this would be a solid conclusion. To some small extent, a case could even be made for this correlation accounting for a portion of today's
Mortgage Rates Jump Back Into The 6's
Mortgage rates began the new week with a fairly quick jump back into the low 6% range (top tier 30yr fixed rate for the average lender). With the news cycle very focused on developments in Iran, most coverage attempts to correlate geopolitical events with market movement. The only legitimate way to do this would be to say that upward pressure on oil prices is translating to higher inflation implications and therefore higher rates. At many times in the past, this would be a solid conclusion. To some small extent, a case could even be made for this correlation accounting for a portion of today's
2nd March, 26
HELOC, AI/Compliance, eNote Products; Skiing and AI Events/Training; Capital Markets
In what seems to be the blink of an eye we’re down two months of 2026, and by most accounts they were decent for lenders and vendors. Here in Ft. Lauderdale at the Lenders One Summit, the talk in the hallways, like that at several recent conferences, is centered around a handful of topics, M&A being one of them, and the desire for companies to control the “funnel.” STRATMOR’s Garth Graham, who resides nearby, last night told me that STRATMOR has a full complement of buyers and sellers and we discussed the Rocket/Compass deal and its relation to the Rocket/Redfin deal. Will the 80-
HELOC, AI/Compliance, eNote Products; Skiing and AI Events/Training; Capital Markets
In what seems to be the blink of an eye we’re down two months of 2026, and by most accounts they were decent for lenders and vendors. Here in Ft. Lauderdale at the Lenders One Summit, the talk in the hallways, like that at several recent conferences, is centered around a handful of topics, M&A being one of them, and the desire for companies to control the “funnel.” STRATMOR’s Garth Graham, who resides nearby, last night told me that STRATMOR has a full complement of buyers and sellers and we discussed the Rocket/Compass deal and its relation to the Rocket/Redfin deal. Will the 80-
2nd March, 26
March Starts Sharply Weaker. Is it Iran?
Spoiler alert: it's not Iran. And this morning's yields are the 2nd lowest in more than 3 months behind last Friday. Last Friday was also a month-end trading day with a mini snowball rally that defied overt explanation (apart from "month end bond buying")--a fact that led us to warn about the risk of "new month bond selling." It's not that bonds always rally at month-end or sell off when the new month begins, but if there's a sharp, inexplicable move on the last day of any given month, the risks of a reversal increase on the first day of the following month. Geopolitical headlines may
March Starts Sharply Weaker. Is it Iran?
Spoiler alert: it's not Iran. And this morning's yields are the 2nd lowest in more than 3 months behind last Friday. Last Friday was also a month-end trading day with a mini snowball rally that defied overt explanation (apart from "month end bond buying")--a fact that led us to warn about the risk of "new month bond selling." It's not that bonds always rally at month-end or sell off when the new month begins, but if there's a sharp, inexplicable move on the last day of any given month, the risks of a reversal increase on the first day of the following month. Geopolitical headlines may
27th February, 26
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close Bonds ended the week/month at their strongest levels with 10yr yields breaking below the 4.0% floor to close at 3.95+. In addition to the low outright levels, the journey was accomplished with minimal volatility along the way. This is potentially surprising given this morning's much higher PPI numbers, but as discussed in the AM commentary, PPI is notoriously volatile and hasn't had a noticeable impact since 2024. Next week brings the typical early month, big ticket econ data (ISM, ADP, and the jobs report). Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close Bonds ended the week/month at their strongest levels with 10yr yields breaking below the 4.0% floor to close at 3.95+. In addition to the low outright levels, the journey was accomplished with minimal volatility along the way. This is potentially surprising given this morning's much higher PPI numbers, but as discussed in the AM commentary, PPI is notoriously volatile and hasn't had a noticeable impact since 2024. Next week brings the typical early month, big ticket econ data (ISM, ADP, and the jobs report). Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/
27th February, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week at Best Levels
At this point, it is getting a bit repetitive to bring up "the lowest rates in more than 3 years"--something that was officially the case twice this week. If we give rates credit for stably holding these long-term lows (and we should!), then every day this week has been the best in more than 3 years. Here's the specific record: at no other time in the history of our rate index have rates begun a week at long-term lows and experienced so little volatility. There was a somewhat similar stretch of 4 days in March 2019, but rates had only hit a 2 year low at the time. On average, when rates hit
Mortgage Rates End Week at Best Levels
At this point, it is getting a bit repetitive to bring up "the lowest rates in more than 3 years"--something that was officially the case twice this week. If we give rates credit for stably holding these long-term lows (and we should!), then every day this week has been the best in more than 3 years. Here's the specific record: at no other time in the history of our rate index have rates begun a week at long-term lows and experienced so little volatility. There was a somewhat similar stretch of 4 days in March 2019, but rates had only hit a 2 year low at the time. On average, when rates hit