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10th March, 26
Afternoon Weakness in Bonds Despite Lower Oil Prices. Will CPI Matter?
Afternoon Weakness in Bonds Despite Lower Oil Prices. Will CPI Matter? Days like today are a problem for a "set it and forget it" mentality when it comes to energy prices and the bond market. On many occasions since the beginning of last week, the correlation between oil prices and bond yields has been plain to see. Additionally, oil price volatility has been the only way to explain much of the movement in bonds. Now this afternoon, bond yields broke higher despite no clear cues from oil. We are left to lean on things like a weak 3yr Treasury auction and general supply pressures surrounding a
Afternoon Weakness in Bonds Despite Lower Oil Prices. Will CPI Matter?
Afternoon Weakness in Bonds Despite Lower Oil Prices. Will CPI Matter? Days like today are a problem for a "set it and forget it" mentality when it comes to energy prices and the bond market. On many occasions since the beginning of last week, the correlation between oil prices and bond yields has been plain to see. Additionally, oil price volatility has been the only way to explain much of the movement in bonds. Now this afternoon, bond yields broke higher despite no clear cues from oil. We are left to lean on things like a weak 3yr Treasury auction and general supply pressures surrounding a
10th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower
Today's mortgage rates are lower when compared to yesterday's average prior to 4pm ET. Later in the afternoon, multiple lenders announced improvements as the bond market rallied in response to geopolitical headlines. If we use those later, lower rates as a baseline, today's average is roughly unchanged. There were no major economic reports today--not that bonds have been too keen on reacting to econ data anyway. War-related headlines remain the biggest risk for potential volatility despite historically significant econ data on tap in the coming days.
Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower
Today's mortgage rates are lower when compared to yesterday's average prior to 4pm ET. Later in the afternoon, multiple lenders announced improvements as the bond market rallied in response to geopolitical headlines. If we use those later, lower rates as a baseline, today's average is roughly unchanged. There were no major economic reports today--not that bonds have been too keen on reacting to econ data anyway. War-related headlines remain the biggest risk for potential volatility despite historically significant econ data on tap in the coming days.
10th March, 26
BBYS, Trigger Lead, Document Generation, AI Rollout Tools; Pennymac's Spector on Strategy
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders What if the biggest driver of servicing costs isn’t your volume, staffing, or vendor stack… but the gaps between them? Clarifire’s new blog, “What’s Really Driving Cost Per Loan in Servicing?” explores a hidden operational challenge many servicing leaders face: systems that are technically connected but operationally fragmented. Every time work moves between systems, teams, or departments, delays and exceptions creep in, and those small gaps scale quickly across thousands of loans. Late-2025 data shows the cost to service non
BBYS, Trigger Lead, Document Generation, AI Rollout Tools; Pennymac's Spector on Strategy
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders What if the biggest driver of servicing costs isn’t your volume, staffing, or vendor stack… but the gaps between them? Clarifire’s new blog, “What’s Really Driving Cost Per Loan in Servicing?” explores a hidden operational challenge many servicing leaders face: systems that are technically connected but operationally fragmented. Every time work moves between systems, teams, or departments, delays and exceptions creep in, and those small gaps scale quickly across thousands of loans. Late-2025 data shows the cost to service non
10th March, 26
Starting Out Weaker vs 5pm or Stronger vs 3pm
One major milestone in anyone's market-watching journey is when they learn that "the close" (close of business, closing bell, etc.) means different things to different people. If we consider electronic futures trading or cash trading in overseas markets, bonds are only really closed for 2 hours a day anyway. But the market needs a standardized time to mark the day's final prices/yields. For most, that's 3pm ET for Treasuries. For others, it's 5pm ET or even 4:45pm ET. Why talk about this now? Simply put, if you join "Club 3pm," then bonds are stronger to start the day despite being
Starting Out Weaker vs 5pm or Stronger vs 3pm
One major milestone in anyone's market-watching journey is when they learn that "the close" (close of business, closing bell, etc.) means different things to different people. If we consider electronic futures trading or cash trading in overseas markets, bonds are only really closed for 2 hours a day anyway. But the market needs a standardized time to mark the day's final prices/yields. For most, that's 3pm ET for Treasuries. For others, it's 5pm ET or even 4:45pm ET. Why talk about this now? Simply put, if you join "Club 3pm," then bonds are stronger to start the day despite being
9th March, 26
Big Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields
Big Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields There was no denying the spillover from oil price volatility to the bond market this morning, even if it took quite a lot of the former to move the latter. At its apex, the oil surge was the largest daily move on record at over $26/bbl (just over a 28% jump). This translated to a 10yr yield jump of almost 8bps to start the overnight session. But things were already reversing course quickly by the time European trading began. Then, by the start of U.S. trading, 10yr yields were already back below 4.18% and continued to fall back to
Big Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields
Big Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields There was no denying the spillover from oil price volatility to the bond market this morning, even if it took quite a lot of the former to move the latter. At its apex, the oil surge was the largest daily move on record at over $26/bbl (just over a 28% jump). This translated to a 10yr yield jump of almost 8bps to start the overnight session. But things were already reversing course quickly by the time European trading began. Then, by the start of U.S. trading, 10yr yields were already back below 4.18% and continued to fall back to
9th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Finish Flat After Starting Higher
Mortgage rates began the day at the highest levels in a month. The move up versus Friday was only moderate, but Friday's levels were already fairly close to early Feb's highs. Oil prices continue putting upward pressure on rates, but with several caveats. It takes quite a big move in oil to motivate enough movement in the bond market to impact mortgage rates. With this morning's spike being the largest on record at the time, today certainly qualified. But over the course of the day, both oil and bonds reversed course, thus allowing the average lender to adjust rates back in line with Friday's
Mortgage Rates Finish Flat After Starting Higher
Mortgage rates began the day at the highest levels in a month. The move up versus Friday was only moderate, but Friday's levels were already fairly close to early Feb's highs. Oil prices continue putting upward pressure on rates, but with several caveats. It takes quite a big move in oil to motivate enough movement in the bond market to impact mortgage rates. With this morning's spike being the largest on record at the time, today certainly qualified. But over the course of the day, both oil and bonds reversed course, thus allowing the average lender to adjust rates back in line with Friday's
9th March, 26
Non-QM, Default Support, DSCR Products; Events; Which Lenders are Refinancing; Interview on Compass
One of the conversation topics late last week in Deer Valley is the weather and climate, and more specifically that Salt Lake City had received virtually no snow this winter, which means that places like Atlanta and Charlotte have received more snow than a city at 4,300 feet elevation. Syracuse, New York has received nearly 5 feet of snow so far this year. Ever heard of Commonspace in Syracuse? As another affordable alternative, it’s a “cohousing” community in a restored 19th century office building made up of 25 mini apartments help affordability and that remind me a lot of my college
Non-QM, Default Support, DSCR Products; Events; Which Lenders are Refinancing; Interview on Compass
One of the conversation topics late last week in Deer Valley is the weather and climate, and more specifically that Salt Lake City had received virtually no snow this winter, which means that places like Atlanta and Charlotte have received more snow than a city at 4,300 feet elevation. Syracuse, New York has received nearly 5 feet of snow so far this year. Ever heard of Commonspace in Syracuse? As another affordable alternative, it’s a “cohousing” community in a restored 19th century office building made up of 25 mini apartments help affordability and that remind me a lot of my college
9th March, 26
Biggest Oil Spike Yet Leaves No Doubts
Since the outbreak of the military operation in Iran, there have been varying levels of spillover from rising oil prices to the bond market. There have been notable pockets of time where the correlation broke down, but when viewed in less granular detail, oil prices and bond yields have moved higher together over the past week. Now this morning, there's a new mega-surge in oil (presumably due to Iran's leadership announcement and its implications for more military escalation) and the correlation is undeniable when viewed over a short time period. Today's first chart shows there's no
Biggest Oil Spike Yet Leaves No Doubts
Since the outbreak of the military operation in Iran, there have been varying levels of spillover from rising oil prices to the bond market. There have been notable pockets of time where the correlation broke down, but when viewed in less granular detail, oil prices and bond yields have moved higher together over the past week. Now this morning, there's a new mega-surge in oil (presumably due to Iran's leadership announcement and its implications for more military escalation) and the correlation is undeniable when viewed over a short time period. Today's first chart shows there's no
6th March, 26
Oil Impact Ultimately Shunned in Favor of Jobs Report Implications
Oil Impact Ultimately Shunned in Favor of Jobs Report Implications It was a super interesting day for the bond market. Yields rose to the week's highs overnight as oil prices continued to surge. We knew we'd get at least some sort of reaction to any big beat/miss in the jobs report and today's miss was certainly big. At first, the reaction was logical. Bond rallied. But the paradox set in quickly and yields hit new highs by 9:30am. Fed funds futures continued arguing for a bond rally, as did lowest S&P levels since November. One could say "bonds finally came to their senses," or "the
Oil Impact Ultimately Shunned in Favor of Jobs Report Implications
Oil Impact Ultimately Shunned in Favor of Jobs Report Implications It was a super interesting day for the bond market. Yields rose to the week's highs overnight as oil prices continued to surge. We knew we'd get at least some sort of reaction to any big beat/miss in the jobs report and today's miss was certainly big. At first, the reaction was logical. Bond rallied. But the paradox set in quickly and yields hit new highs by 9:30am. Fed funds futures continued arguing for a bond rally, as did lowest S&P levels since November. One could say "bonds finally came to their senses," or "the
6th March, 26
Volatile Crosscurrents Keep Mortgage Rates Relatively Flat
Before this morning's jobs report was released, mortgage rates were on track to end the week at their highest levels in several weeks. This was due to an ongoing mega-spike in oil prices spilling over to the bond market (higher oil = higher inflation implications, and bonds hate inflation). The jobs report saved the day, albeit in a morbid way. It was one of the weakest jobs reports in years with unemployment continuing to trend higher and the job count falling deeply into negative territory. The jobs market is the only thing as important to bonds as inflation, and job market weakness tends to
Volatile Crosscurrents Keep Mortgage Rates Relatively Flat
Before this morning's jobs report was released, mortgage rates were on track to end the week at their highest levels in several weeks. This was due to an ongoing mega-spike in oil prices spilling over to the bond market (higher oil = higher inflation implications, and bonds hate inflation). The jobs report saved the day, albeit in a morbid way. It was one of the weakest jobs reports in years with unemployment continuing to trend higher and the job count falling deeply into negative territory. The jobs market is the only thing as important to bonds as inflation, and job market weakness tends to