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18th August, 26
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green Tuesday offered remarkably of interest or consequence for the bond market. The most notable development was the brief visit to 4.75% in 10yr yields followed by the emergence of the quintessential "dip buyer" (i.e. "hey look... yields are high enough again that I think I'm going to buy some Treasuries"). The post-9:30am timing adds emphasis to that mentality among the retail investor community. Apart from that, there were no obvious motivations or relevant data points. Wednesday suffers a similar absence of scheduled events with the only exception
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green
Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green Tuesday offered remarkably of interest or consequence for the bond market. The most notable development was the brief visit to 4.75% in 10yr yields followed by the emergence of the quintessential "dip buyer" (i.e. "hey look... yields are high enough again that I think I'm going to buy some Treasuries"). The post-9:30am timing adds emphasis to that mentality among the retail investor community. Apart from that, there were no obvious motivations or relevant data points. Wednesday suffers a similar absence of scheduled events with the only exception
18th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Continue Higher Despite Bond Market Improvement
Mortgage rates rose for the third straight day on Tuesday with the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moving up a modest 0.02% to 6.75%. Notably, the bond market was actually in slightly better shape compared to yesterday--something that would normally be good news for rates. So what's the catch? As is often the case when bonds and mortgages disagree, the x factor is timing. Mortgage lenders prefer to release rates once per day (usually around 10am ET) and they only change rates if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move in either direction. Bonds lost ground yesterday,
Mortgage Rates Continue Higher Despite Bond Market Improvement
Mortgage rates rose for the third straight day on Tuesday with the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moving up a modest 0.02% to 6.75%. Notably, the bond market was actually in slightly better shape compared to yesterday--something that would normally be good news for rates. So what's the catch? As is often the case when bonds and mortgages disagree, the x factor is timing. Mortgage lenders prefer to release rates once per day (usually around 10am ET) and they only change rates if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move in either direction. Bonds lost ground yesterday,
18th August, 26
Verification, Title/DSCR, Escrow Reporting, BI Asset Products; Disasters Shifting, as is FEMA; AI and Data
While Lake Powell and the Colorado River are at their lowest levels ever, and states like Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington are in a drought, would you like a short clip of what they’re experiencing in Hawai’i? So far, the North Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30) has been light, which pleases homeowners, servicers, lenders, and insurance companies. But elsewhere this year’s tornado season showed the continued trend of Tornado Alley shifting eastward and into more populated areas, with Illinois leading all states in tornado activity (220 confirmed tornadoes) and Indiana and
Verification, Title/DSCR, Escrow Reporting, BI Asset Products; Disasters Shifting, as is FEMA; AI and Data
While Lake Powell and the Colorado River are at their lowest levels ever, and states like Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington are in a drought, would you like a short clip of what they’re experiencing in Hawai’i? So far, the North Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30) has been light, which pleases homeowners, servicers, lenders, and insurance companies. But elsewhere this year’s tornado season showed the continued trend of Tornado Alley shifting eastward and into more populated areas, with Illinois leading all states in tornado activity (220 confirmed tornadoes) and Indiana and
18th August, 26
Weaker Start, But Traders Buying The Dip
Big picture momentum has been calmly but clearly skewed toward higher yields for almost 10 months. There have been a few attempts to bounce at technical ceilings along the way up from 4.0% 10yr yields (4.3%, 4.42%, and 4.75%). August has been mostly sideways near the longer-term highs, but the first two days of this week have set up another challenge of the 4.75% technical ceiling. From a simple "value buying" standpoint, there's always some magical line in the sand where investors will conclude yields are high enough to constitute a good buying opportunity. Over the past several years, this
Weaker Start, But Traders Buying The Dip
Big picture momentum has been calmly but clearly skewed toward higher yields for almost 10 months. There have been a few attempts to bounce at technical ceilings along the way up from 4.0% 10yr yields (4.3%, 4.42%, and 4.75%). August has been mostly sideways near the longer-term highs, but the first two days of this week have set up another challenge of the 4.75% technical ceiling. From a simple "value buying" standpoint, there's always some magical line in the sand where investors will conclude yields are high enough to constitute a good buying opportunity. Over the past several years, this
17th August, 26
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher Some summertime Mondays are slow and uneventful. Some see brisk movement. Today's was somewhere in between. There was modest pressure at the outset following headlines about Iran planning to escalate hostilities. The sharpest increase in oil prices coincided with Iran seizing a UAE tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields followed and hit the highs of the day shortly thereafter. Bottom line: fairly straightforward day, even if moderately unpleasant for fans of low rates. Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing 20.6 vs 11 f'cast, 15.6 prev
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher
War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher Some summertime Mondays are slow and uneventful. Some see brisk movement. Today's was somewhere in between. There was modest pressure at the outset following headlines about Iran planning to escalate hostilities. The sharpest increase in oil prices coincided with Iran seizing a UAE tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields followed and hit the highs of the day shortly thereafter. Bottom line: fairly straightforward day, even if moderately unpleasant for fans of low rates. Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing 20.6 vs 11 f'cast, 15.6 prev
17th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Start Week Higher
After ending last week near the lowest level since July 17th, mortgage rates are moving up to start the new week. Motivations are familiar. Escalation in U.S./Iran tensions is pushing fuel prices higher and bond yields continue to correlate. Bond yields correlate with consumer interest rates with near perfection. In mortgage-specific terms, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moved up 0.02% today to 6.73%. This is still much lower than the most recent high of 6.85%, but not quite as low as last Thursday's 6.69
Mortgage Rates Start Week Higher
After ending last week near the lowest level since July 17th, mortgage rates are moving up to start the new week. Motivations are familiar. Escalation in U.S./Iran tensions is pushing fuel prices higher and bond yields continue to correlate. Bond yields correlate with consumer interest rates with near perfection. In mortgage-specific terms, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moved up 0.02% today to 6.73%. This is still much lower than the most recent high of 6.85%, but not quite as low as last Thursday's 6.69
17th August, 26
Market Study, DSCR, POS, API Tools; Mortgage Rates and Capital Markets
Some aren’t a fan of new federal escrow laws. Ten states have sued the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency over new federal rules that would prevent them from enforcing laws requiring national banks to pay homeowners interest on money held in mortgage escrow accounts. Some weren’t fans of 10 percent credit card caps, 50-year mortgages, portable and/or assumable mortgages, but proponents say that the Administration is at least making suggestions. Congress’ effort to boost the nation’s housing supply passed both chambers with overwhelming bipartisan support and became law, although
Market Study, DSCR, POS, API Tools; Mortgage Rates and Capital Markets
Some aren’t a fan of new federal escrow laws. Ten states have sued the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency over new federal rules that would prevent them from enforcing laws requiring national banks to pay homeowners interest on money held in mortgage escrow accounts. Some weren’t fans of 10 percent credit card caps, 50-year mortgages, portable and/or assumable mortgages, but proponents say that the Administration is at least making suggestions. Congress’ effort to boost the nation’s housing supply passed both chambers with overwhelming bipartisan support and became law, although
17th August, 26
Under Some Pressure For Usual Reasons
It's just another day in post-Iran-war 2026. As such, bonds are taking cues from fuel price volatility which is in turn taking cues from the latest war-related headlines. In this morning's installment, there were several headlines around 8:30am that didn't help. The most relevant update involved Iran saying it was shifting to an offensive strategy and was setting a deadline for the U.S. to implement the ceasefire memo before escalating. This made for a quick, obvious, but relatively small pop in bond yields at the time. With that, we're starting the day in slightly weaker territory
Under Some Pressure For Usual Reasons
It's just another day in post-Iran-war 2026. As such, bonds are taking cues from fuel price volatility which is in turn taking cues from the latest war-related headlines. In this morning's installment, there were several headlines around 8:30am that didn't help. The most relevant update involved Iran saying it was shifting to an offensive strategy and was setting a deadline for the U.S. to implement the ceasefire memo before escalating. This made for a quick, obvious, but relatively small pop in bond yields at the time. With that, we're starting the day in slightly weaker territory
14th August, 26
Existing-Home Sales Ease Slightly, Remain Above Year-Ago Levels
Existing-home sales remained relatively stable in July despite elevated mortgage rates, with activity declining modestly from June while remaining above year-ago levels. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, sales fell 1.7% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million , but were 0.7% higher than in July 2025. “Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He noted that year-to-date sales are up 2.4% and suggested that the housing market could see
Existing-Home Sales Ease Slightly, Remain Above Year-Ago Levels
Existing-home sales remained relatively stable in July despite elevated mortgage rates, with activity declining modestly from June while remaining above year-ago levels. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, sales fell 1.7% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million , but were 0.7% higher than in July 2025. “Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He noted that year-to-date sales are up 2.4% and suggested that the housing market could see
14th August, 26
As Expected, Mortgage Apps Bounce in Response to Rate Reversal
Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as a moderate decline in mortgage rates provided some relief for both homebuyers and homeowners considering a refinance. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 3.6% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 7. Purchase applications increased 3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, but remained 1% below the same week one year ago. Borrowing costs remain elevated and continue to weigh on affordability and buyer demand. Refinance activity also improved, with the
As Expected, Mortgage Apps Bounce in Response to Rate Reversal
Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as a moderate decline in mortgage rates provided some relief for both homebuyers and homeowners considering a refinance. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 3.6% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 7. Purchase applications increased 3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, but remained 1% below the same week one year ago. Borrowing costs remain elevated and continue to weigh on affordability and buyer demand. Refinance activity also improved, with the