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23rd May, 25
A Little Early Excitement
A Little Early Excitement Bonds began the day with a bit of excitement following Trump comments on raising EU tariffs to 50%. The reaction was bigger than warranted based on the time of day/week as well as the fact that it's the Friday before a 3 day weekend. All that to say, markets were easier than normal to push around with seemingly relevant headlines. By the time human traders were sorting things out, stocks and bonds were moving back in the opposite direction. The day ultimately ended with modest gains, but at levels that represent the 4th weakest close in 3 months. Ho hum in
A Little Early Excitement
A Little Early Excitement Bonds began the day with a bit of excitement following Trump comments on raising EU tariffs to 50%. The reaction was bigger than warranted based on the time of day/week as well as the fact that it's the Friday before a 3 day weekend. All that to say, markets were easier than normal to push around with seemingly relevant headlines. By the time human traders were sorting things out, stocks and bonds were moving back in the opposite direction. The day ultimately ended with modest gains, but at levels that represent the 4th weakest close in 3 months. Ho hum in
23rd May, 25
New Home Sales at 3 Year High, Maybe...
The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales for April today, and at face value, the news is good. Economists expected an annual pace of 692k, but were instead treated to a surprisingly high 743k--just edging out 3 of the best months over the past 3 years. Unlike many of the other reports we cover, there's really no glaring counterpoint when we zoom out to a wider frame of reference. Sure, sales were higher during the post-pandemic housing frenzy, but unlike existing homes and other housing data, New Home Sales are as good or better than their pre-pandemic levels. So what's the
New Home Sales at 3 Year High, Maybe...
The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales for April today, and at face value, the news is good. Economists expected an annual pace of 692k, but were instead treated to a surprisingly high 743k--just edging out 3 of the best months over the past 3 years. Unlike many of the other reports we cover, there's really no glaring counterpoint when we zoom out to a wider frame of reference. Sure, sales were higher during the post-pandemic housing frenzy, but unlike existing homes and other housing data, New Home Sales are as good or better than their pre-pandemic levels. So what's the
23rd May, 25
No Major Change For Existing Home Sales
Two months ago, existing home sales came in at the highest levels in a year according the the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Last month's report showed a fairly sharp decline to 5 month lows. The latest data, out this week is less sensational by comparison. Granted, we can now technically say that existing sales are at 6 month lows, but they really didn't change much from a month ago. As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart results in an entirely different impression of the home resale market. Then again, there is perhaps some solace in zooming out even
No Major Change For Existing Home Sales
Two months ago, existing home sales came in at the highest levels in a year according the the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Last month's report showed a fairly sharp decline to 5 month lows. The latest data, out this week is less sensational by comparison. Granted, we can now technically say that existing sales are at 6 month lows, but they really didn't change much from a month ago. As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart results in an entirely different impression of the home resale market. Then again, there is perhaps some solace in zooming out even
23rd May, 25
Mortgage Demand Impacted by Rising Rates
The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) weekly application survey has been doing a good job of tracking with the more granular daily rate data from MND. Both are in agreement that rates were on their way up to the highest levels in several months last week--a fact that seems to have taken a toll on both purchase and refinance applications. “Mortgage rates jumped to their highest level since February last week, with investors concerned about rising inflation and the impact of increasing deficits and debt,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Higher rates, including
Mortgage Demand Impacted by Rising Rates
The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) weekly application survey has been doing a good job of tracking with the more granular daily rate data from MND. Both are in agreement that rates were on their way up to the highest levels in several months last week--a fact that seems to have taken a toll on both purchase and refinance applications. “Mortgage rates jumped to their highest level since February last week, with investors concerned about rising inflation and the impact of increasing deficits and debt,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Higher rates, including
23rd May, 25
Mortgage Rates Lower Again Today, But Still Higher on The Week
The bond market is scheduled to close 3 hour earlier than normal today--a common practice surrounding federal holiday weekends. This means 3 fewer hours where trading volatility can have an impact on mortgage rate movement. Said more simply: the day is basically over when it comes to potential intraday rate changes. There is almost always a bit of rate movement overnight as mortgage lenders react to a new market landscape each morning. Today's happened to be good news for rates, but not quite good enough to get the average top tier 30yr fixed scenario back under 7%. 7% rates aren't new,
Mortgage Rates Lower Again Today, But Still Higher on The Week
The bond market is scheduled to close 3 hour earlier than normal today--a common practice surrounding federal holiday weekends. This means 3 fewer hours where trading volatility can have an impact on mortgage rate movement. Said more simply: the day is basically over when it comes to potential intraday rate changes. There is almost always a bit of rate movement overnight as mortgage lenders react to a new market landscape each morning. Today's happened to be good news for rates, but not quite good enough to get the average top tier 30yr fixed scenario back under 7%. 7% rates aren't new,
23rd May, 25
Servicing With AI, Borrower Portal, 2nd Lien Products; Bill Pulte, Freddie, and Fannie News
“I can’t afford an Ancestry DNA kit to learn about my relatives. So instead, I posted online that I had won the Powerball Lottery.” Speaking of news dissemination, Southwest Airlines sent out a press release about using chargers on its airplanes. Finally, in terms of spreading news, some love him, some say he’s little more than a frat boy, we have FHFA Director Bill Pulte. I was present at his Q&A in Manhattan where he basically said that releasing Freddie and Fannie from conservatorship was “not a priority” and that the process wouldn’t begin until 2026. This was changed by
Servicing With AI, Borrower Portal, 2nd Lien Products; Bill Pulte, Freddie, and Fannie News
“I can’t afford an Ancestry DNA kit to learn about my relatives. So instead, I posted online that I had won the Powerball Lottery.” Speaking of news dissemination, Southwest Airlines sent out a press release about using chargers on its airplanes. Finally, in terms of spreading news, some love him, some say he’s little more than a frat boy, we have FHFA Director Bill Pulte. I was present at his Q&A in Manhattan where he basically said that releasing Freddie and Fannie from conservatorship was “not a priority” and that the process wouldn’t begin until 2026. This was changed by
23rd May, 25
Wait... So Tariffs Are Good or Bad For Bonds Now?
The most notable development on what might otherwise have been a sleepy half-day ahead of a holiday weekend was Trump's "recommendation" of a 50% tariff on the EU, effective June 1st. It's not clear what "recommendation" means in a context where previous tariffs have been announced by executive order, but markets nonetheless reacted with a risk-off trade (stocks and bond yields dropped). This is generally in line with the prevailing correlation, but could also be confusing if we think back to April when super high tariffs were bad for bonds, and the 90 day pause provided some relief
Wait... So Tariffs Are Good or Bad For Bonds Now?
The most notable development on what might otherwise have been a sleepy half-day ahead of a holiday weekend was Trump's "recommendation" of a 50% tariff on the EU, effective June 1st. It's not clear what "recommendation" means in a context where previous tariffs have been announced by executive order, but markets nonetheless reacted with a risk-off trade (stocks and bond yields dropped). This is generally in line with the prevailing correlation, but could also be confusing if we think back to April when super high tariffs were bad for bonds, and the 90 day pause provided some relief
22nd May, 25
Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker
Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker Bond yields have moved almost exclusively higher in May. At the very least, they've been in an incredibly linear uptrend. Uptrends wouldn't last very long if there wasn't some push and pull (think 2 steps forward, 1 step back). And that brings us to the best case for today's gains: sellers are taking a breath. Not every day can be a sell-off. To be sure, the gains weren't inspired by data or any new fiscal developments. We can attempt to force the mid-day pop to fit a fiscal narrative based on a comment on the Senate
Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker
Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker Bond yields have moved almost exclusively higher in May. At the very least, they've been in an incredibly linear uptrend. Uptrends wouldn't last very long if there wasn't some push and pull (think 2 steps forward, 1 step back). And that brings us to the best case for today's gains: sellers are taking a breath. Not every day can be a sell-off. To be sure, the gains weren't inspired by data or any new fiscal developments. We can attempt to force the mid-day pop to fit a fiscal narrative based on a comment on the Senate
22nd May, 25
Mortgage Rates Edge Down From Recent Highs, But Remain Over 7%
Mortgage rates hit their highest level in just over 3 months yesterday with financial markets generally protesting the absence of more serious spending cuts in the spending bill. Rates care about fiscal spending because higher spending requires higher Treasury issuance which, in turn, pushes rates higher, all else equal. Although the House passed the bill early this morning, financial markets were already fairly well braced for the impact. Now that the Senate is saying the bill likely won't reach the President's desk until late Summer, markets are able to pause and reflect. One
Mortgage Rates Edge Down From Recent Highs, But Remain Over 7%
Mortgage rates hit their highest level in just over 3 months yesterday with financial markets generally protesting the absence of more serious spending cuts in the spending bill. Rates care about fiscal spending because higher spending requires higher Treasury issuance which, in turn, pushes rates higher, all else equal. Although the House passed the bill early this morning, financial markets were already fairly well braced for the impact. Now that the Senate is saying the bill likely won't reach the President's desk until late Summer, markets are able to pause and reflect. One
22nd May, 25
Non-QM, QC Trends, Past Borrower Mining Tools; House Passes Spending Bill; Webinars Through Month-End
Yesterday I headed west from the conference while my son Robbie headed south to the nCino nSight event. But while in Manhattan Dawn S. asked me, “How do you know if there’s a vegan at your party?” Answer: “They’ll tell you.” It’s not hard to find someone to tell you why the “Sell America” trade is rampant in the financial markets, impacting rates and borrowers, and reminding us that politics and lending are indeed entwined. The U.S. should curb its "ever-increasing" debt burden, said Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, in an
Non-QM, QC Trends, Past Borrower Mining Tools; House Passes Spending Bill; Webinars Through Month-End
Yesterday I headed west from the conference while my son Robbie headed south to the nCino nSight event. But while in Manhattan Dawn S. asked me, “How do you know if there’s a vegan at your party?” Answer: “They’ll tell you.” It’s not hard to find someone to tell you why the “Sell America” trade is rampant in the financial markets, impacting rates and borrowers, and reminding us that politics and lending are indeed entwined. The U.S. should curb its "ever-increasing" debt burden, said Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, in an
