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6th July, 26
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Uneventful Summertime Monday Volume and--sometimes--volatility can be generally lower in the middle of the summertime months as fewer traders are consistently at bond desks--especially on days adjacent to 3-day holiday weekends. Today was a classic example. Bonds barely budged and volume is on track for one of the lightest full trading days of the year. In many ways, today was simply a 4th weekend day and we'll know more about how bonds are feeling on Tuesday. But at the very least, it's somewhat constructive to be starting the week without any extension of last week's selling pressure. Econ
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Uneventful Summertime Monday Volume and--sometimes--volatility can be generally lower in the middle of the summertime months as fewer traders are consistently at bond desks--especially on days adjacent to 3-day holiday weekends. Today was a classic example. Bonds barely budged and volume is on track for one of the lightest full trading days of the year. In many ways, today was simply a 4th weekend day and we'll know more about how bonds are feeling on Tuesday. But at the very least, it's somewhat constructive to be starting the week without any extension of last week's selling pressure. Econ
6th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Start New Week Flat
Volatility is always a risk surrounding 3 day holiday weekends when it comes to markets and mortgage rates, but this time around, things have been very calm. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained almost perfectly flat versus last Thursday with the MND index technically falling by 0.01%. This week's calendar of scheduled events is less consequential than last week's. After today, there is essentially no big-ticket economic data. In the bigger picture, 30yr fixed rates are near the center of their range over the past 6-7 weeks. Collectively, that range represents the highest levels
Mortgage Rates Start New Week Flat
Volatility is always a risk surrounding 3 day holiday weekends when it comes to markets and mortgage rates, but this time around, things have been very calm. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained almost perfectly flat versus last Thursday with the MND index technically falling by 0.01%. This week's calendar of scheduled events is less consequential than last week's. After today, there is essentially no big-ticket economic data. In the bigger picture, 30yr fixed rates are near the center of their range over the past 6-7 weeks. Collectively, that range represents the highest levels
6th July, 26
HELOC, AI POS, LOS Tools; Pay Attention to Agency Changes; Housing Surplus?
One of the key selling points for an LO talking to a potential client about becoming a homeowner is the landlord/client relationship, which can go awry. (Pearl is the daughter of the short film’s director, by the way.) There are many reasons why renters aren’t owners, like, “can they not afford a residence,” or “are none available?” We recently learned that May new home sales slid to 580,000 (seasonally adjusted) and are down around 7 percent m-o-m and y-o-y. Sales of completed homes have declined for three straight months and are down over 30 percent since November. The supply of
HELOC, AI POS, LOS Tools; Pay Attention to Agency Changes; Housing Surplus?
One of the key selling points for an LO talking to a potential client about becoming a homeowner is the landlord/client relationship, which can go awry. (Pearl is the daughter of the short film’s director, by the way.) There are many reasons why renters aren’t owners, like, “can they not afford a residence,” or “are none available?” We recently learned that May new home sales slid to 580,000 (seasonally adjusted) and are down around 7 percent m-o-m and y-o-y. Sales of completed homes have declined for three straight months and are down over 30 percent since November. The supply of
6th July, 26
Steady Start; No Drama From ISM Data
Bonds weathered the 3-day weekend without issue. We started the day modestly stronger, but have moved back closer to unchanged levels in the first 2 hours. The day's only big-ticket (or semi-big-ticket?) econ data was the ISM Services index, but admittedly, that has more of an impact when it's released BEFORE the jobs report. Moreover, it was right in line with expectations at 54.0 vs 54.0, so even if this had come out last week, it may not have moved the needle. There are always multiple ways to approach trends and The bigger picture is a bit more gloomy as it involves a longer-term
Steady Start; No Drama From ISM Data
Bonds weathered the 3-day weekend without issue. We started the day modestly stronger, but have moved back closer to unchanged levels in the first 2 hours. The day's only big-ticket (or semi-big-ticket?) econ data was the ISM Services index, but admittedly, that has more of an impact when it's released BEFORE the jobs report. Moreover, it was right in line with expectations at 54.0 vs 54.0, so even if this had come out last week, it may not have moved the needle. There are always multiple ways to approach trends and The bigger picture is a bit more gloomy as it involves a longer-term
2nd July, 26
Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal
Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal Bonds rallied quickly in response to this morning's jobs report and pressed to even stronger levels by mid-day. That's the point in the day that most traders (the ones actually working) consider bonds to be "closed." You're free to do the same and count today as a win. But in the noon-2pm hour, a decent chunk of the AM gains were erased. We wouldn't read too much into those and instead view them as a facet of pre-holiday-weekend illiquidity and/or position squaring. This doesn't imply directionality in the future. It just means we have to wait for
Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal
Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal Bonds rallied quickly in response to this morning's jobs report and pressed to even stronger levels by mid-day. That's the point in the day that most traders (the ones actually working) consider bonds to be "closed." You're free to do the same and count today as a win. But in the noon-2pm hour, a decent chunk of the AM gains were erased. We wouldn't read too much into those and instead view them as a facet of pre-holiday-weekend illiquidity and/or position squaring. This doesn't imply directionality in the future. It just means we have to wait for
2nd July, 26
Mortgage Rates Recover Somewhat
Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs report (normally a Friday affair) was instead released this morning. It ended up helping rates move lower. The jobs report (officially "The Employment Situation") measures new jobs created (or lost) each month in addition to the unemployment rate. The job count was much weaker than expected and, although the unemployment rate technically dropped, it did so for the wrong reasons (fewer people considered themselves part of the workforce). In fact, if
Mortgage Rates Recover Somewhat
Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs report (normally a Friday affair) was instead released this morning. It ended up helping rates move lower. The jobs report (officially "The Employment Situation") measures new jobs created (or lost) each month in addition to the unemployment rate. The job count was much weaker than expected and, although the unemployment rate technically dropped, it did so for the wrong reasons (fewer people considered themselves part of the workforce). In fact, if
2nd July, 26
Mortgage Applications Flat, Purchase Activity Edges Higher
Mortgage application activity was essentially unchanged last week, as a modest increase in purchase demand offset a slight decline in refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.04% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 26. Purchase activity provided the week's modest support. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% from the previous week and remained 3% higher than the same week one year ago, extending a trend of stronger year-over-year demand. Refinance activity eased slightly, with the Refinance Index
Mortgage Applications Flat, Purchase Activity Edges Higher
Mortgage application activity was essentially unchanged last week, as a modest increase in purchase demand offset a slight decline in refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.04% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 26. Purchase activity provided the week's modest support. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% from the previous week and remained 3% higher than the same week one year ago, extending a trend of stronger year-over-year demand. Refinance activity eased slightly, with the Refinance Index
2nd July, 26
Younger Borrower, Medical Professional; Full Loan Cycle AI; CEO Kim Nelson Interview; Non-Agency News
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reported on the performance of first-lien mortgages in the federal banking system during the first quarter of 2026. The OCC Mortgage Metrics Report, First Quarter 2026 showed that 97.7 percent of mortgages included in the report were current and performing at the end of the quarter, a slight increase from 97.6 percent in 2025. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights
Younger Borrower, Medical Professional; Full Loan Cycle AI; CEO Kim Nelson Interview; Non-Agency News
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reported on the performance of first-lien mortgages in the federal banking system during the first quarter of 2026. The OCC Mortgage Metrics Report, First Quarter 2026 showed that 97.7 percent of mortgages included in the report were current and performing at the end of the quarter, a slight increase from 97.6 percent in 2025. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights
2nd July, 26
Home Prices Growing Slower, But Outright Prices Still at All-Time Highs
Home price appreciation remained subdued in April, as the latest data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices continued to point to a housing market with little overall momentum. While annual price growth improved modestly from the prior month in both reports, elevated mortgage rates and ongoing affordability challenges continued to keep appreciation well below historical norms. FHFA reported that U.S. house prices declined 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, marking the first monthly decline since last summer. March's gain was also revised higher to 0
Home Prices Growing Slower, But Outright Prices Still at All-Time Highs
Home price appreciation remained subdued in April, as the latest data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices continued to point to a housing market with little overall momentum. While annual price growth improved modestly from the prior month in both reports, elevated mortgage rates and ongoing affordability challenges continued to keep appreciation well below historical norms. FHFA reported that U.S. house prices declined 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, marking the first monthly decline since last summer. March's gain was also revised higher to 0
2nd July, 26
Red Night, Green Morning After Weaker Jobs Data
Bonds continued drifting gently higher in the overnight session with 10yr yields just barely edging above 4.50% before today's big jobs report (the only calendar event of note before the holiday weekend). The reaction is perfectly reasonable given the data results. The payroll count was weaker (57k vs 110k, with another -71k of revisions) and bonds rallied immediately. If the 4-5bp rally in 10yr yields seems like less than you'd expect, turn your attention to 2 year yields which fell at a much quicker pace. This is a factor of its closer connection to the Fed Funds Rate (which makes sense if
Red Night, Green Morning After Weaker Jobs Data
Bonds continued drifting gently higher in the overnight session with 10yr yields just barely edging above 4.50% before today's big jobs report (the only calendar event of note before the holiday weekend). The reaction is perfectly reasonable given the data results. The payroll count was weaker (57k vs 110k, with another -71k of revisions) and bonds rallied immediately. If the 4-5bp rally in 10yr yields seems like less than you'd expect, turn your attention to 2 year yields which fell at a much quicker pace. This is a factor of its closer connection to the Fed Funds Rate (which makes sense if