Latest news
16th July, 26
Hedging, Data Mapping, BER Letter, PPE Tools; AI Ramifications; Atty. Mitch Kider Joins Big Picture
Nearly every lender is at least learning about AI, but on the flip side there are things like New York’s ban on data centers. Lenders and vendors are not the only ones riding the tech wave, and no LO wants to be behind their client in tech knowledge. Consumers are now researching affordability, neighborhoods, and monthly payments long before contacting a lender. So, the next competitive advantage in mortgage lending lies in engaging buyers earlier through real-time affordability tools, personalized insights, and integrated financing experiences that build trust before rate shopping begins.
Hedging, Data Mapping, BER Letter, PPE Tools; AI Ramifications; Atty. Mitch Kider Joins Big Picture
Nearly every lender is at least learning about AI, but on the flip side there are things like New York’s ban on data centers. Lenders and vendors are not the only ones riding the tech wave, and no LO wants to be behind their client in tech knowledge. Consumers are now researching affordability, neighborhoods, and monthly payments long before contacting a lender. So, the next competitive advantage in mortgage lending lies in engaging buyers earlier through real-time affordability tools, personalized insights, and integrated financing experiences that build trust before rate shopping begins.
16th July, 26
Are Bonds High on Crack (Spreads)?
The term "crack spread" is quickly becoming mainstream--especially over the past few weeks. It's more of a concept than a specific metric, but it most frequently refers to the margin between input and output costs for fuel (gas, diesel, etc). Petro-nerds seem to like the 3-2-1 crack spread, which covers both gas and diesel (3 barrels of oil margin vs 2 barrels of gas and 1 barrel of diesel). While it's true that we could simply look at RBOB or ULSD futures to gauge price changes at the pump, crack spreads speak to the current state of supply/demand imbalance. They suggest conditions remain
Are Bonds High on Crack (Spreads)?
The term "crack spread" is quickly becoming mainstream--especially over the past few weeks. It's more of a concept than a specific metric, but it most frequently refers to the margin between input and output costs for fuel (gas, diesel, etc). Petro-nerds seem to like the 3-2-1 crack spread, which covers both gas and diesel (3 barrels of oil margin vs 2 barrels of gas and 1 barrel of diesel). While it's true that we could simply look at RBOB or ULSD futures to gauge price changes at the pump, crack spreads speak to the current state of supply/demand imbalance. They suggest conditions remain
15th July, 26
Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's
Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's Both Tuesday's CPI and Wednesday's PPI came in much lower than expected. Both resulted in fairly big bond rallies. Whereas Tuesday's rally faded gradually after the initial pop, Wednesday's rally continued at a moderate pace as the day progressed. The only trade off was that the initial pop was a bit smaller. The net effect is that yields fell to the same levels seen in the few minutes following Tuesday's CPI. In that sense, the rally implies clear resistance at a 10yr yield level of 4.54%. From a strategic standpoint, rate watchers must
Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's
Wednesday's Gains Had More Staying Power Than Tuesday's Both Tuesday's CPI and Wednesday's PPI came in much lower than expected. Both resulted in fairly big bond rallies. Whereas Tuesday's rally faded gradually after the initial pop, Wednesday's rally continued at a moderate pace as the day progressed. The only trade off was that the initial pop was a bit smaller. The net effect is that yields fell to the same levels seen in the few minutes following Tuesday's CPI. In that sense, the rally implies clear resistance at a 10yr yield level of 4.54%. From a strategic standpoint, rate watchers must
15th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Fall to Lowest Levels in a Week
Mortgage rates moved lower again today following another lower-than-expected reading on an inflation report. Yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) had a bigger impact on the underlying bond market, but today's Producer Price Index (PPI) wasn't far behind. Additionally, bonds did a better job of holding onto the improvement into the afternoon hours. This allowed mortgage lenders to drop rates even more than they did yesterday (0.06% today versus 0.05% yesterday). This takes the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% which is the lowest in just over a week. [thirtyyearmortgagerates
Mortgage Rates Fall to Lowest Levels in a Week
Mortgage rates moved lower again today following another lower-than-expected reading on an inflation report. Yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) had a bigger impact on the underlying bond market, but today's Producer Price Index (PPI) wasn't far behind. Additionally, bonds did a better job of holding onto the improvement into the afternoon hours. This allowed mortgage lenders to drop rates even more than they did yesterday (0.06% today versus 0.05% yesterday). This takes the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% which is the lowest in just over a week. [thirtyyearmortgagerates
15th July, 26
Home Equity, Verification, Asset-Based Lending, MI Tools; Housing Demand Shift; Fed Balance Sheet Thoughts
Certainly the cost gap between renting and owning is widening, and the press is filled with stories that our borrowers see, and MLOs should read, like, “Rent vs. Buy: Is Renting Cheaper Than Buying a Home?” or “Rent or buy? How long it takes for buying a home to pay off in each metro.” Today at 11AM PT on L1’s Mortgage Matters, Developer’s Mortgage COO Taylor Stork discusses lender challenges. Lenders are scrambling to target borrowers “at the top of the funnel, and today at noon PT the Credit Committee, presented by Equifax, David Hadaway, the CEO of Altair Data Resources, to
Home Equity, Verification, Asset-Based Lending, MI Tools; Housing Demand Shift; Fed Balance Sheet Thoughts
Certainly the cost gap between renting and owning is widening, and the press is filled with stories that our borrowers see, and MLOs should read, like, “Rent vs. Buy: Is Renting Cheaper Than Buying a Home?” or “Rent or buy? How long it takes for buying a home to pay off in each metro.” Today at 11AM PT on L1’s Mortgage Matters, Developer’s Mortgage COO Taylor Stork discusses lender challenges. Lenders are scrambling to target borrowers “at the top of the funnel, and today at noon PT the Credit Committee, presented by Equifax, David Hadaway, the CEO of Altair Data Resources, to
15th July, 26
PPI Does Its Best CPI Impression. Bonds Like It
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is not normally a huge market mover, but it has its moments of moderate impact. Today is such a moment as PPI did its best to mimic yesterday's sharply lower CPI. There were also big revisions to previous months which brought annual PPI a full 1.0% lower from last month's initial reading (5.5% today vs a 6.0 previous reading, revised from 6.5% when initially reported). Fuel prices loom large in this data, as evidenced by Core monthly PPI at 0.2 vs 0.3. Unlike yesterday, most of today's shift was seen in revisions to previous months--especially May (headline
PPI Does Its Best CPI Impression. Bonds Like It
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is not normally a huge market mover, but it has its moments of moderate impact. Today is such a moment as PPI did its best to mimic yesterday's sharply lower CPI. There were also big revisions to previous months which brought annual PPI a full 1.0% lower from last month's initial reading (5.5% today vs a 6.0 previous reading, revised from 6.5% when initially reported). Fuel prices loom large in this data, as evidenced by Core monthly PPI at 0.2 vs 0.3. Unlike yesterday, most of today's shift was seen in revisions to previous months--especially May (headline
14th July, 26
Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today?
Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today? If you missed this morning's commentary, the gist is that inflation for June (via the CPI report) came in much lower than forecast (biggest "miss" in over a year). Given the market's preoccupation with inflation, this logically resulted in an immediate bond rally. 10yr yields only ended up a few bps lower by the end of the day. There are 3 key reasons. The first is purely mechanical and it has to do with the shorter-term rates benefitting the most. Fed Funds Futures did the best with the end-of-year implied rate falling an eighth of a point (or
Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today?
Why Were 10yr Yields Only a Few bps Lower Today? If you missed this morning's commentary, the gist is that inflation for June (via the CPI report) came in much lower than forecast (biggest "miss" in over a year). Given the market's preoccupation with inflation, this logically resulted in an immediate bond rally. 10yr yields only ended up a few bps lower by the end of the day. There are 3 key reasons. The first is purely mechanical and it has to do with the shorter-term rates benefitting the most. Fed Funds Futures did the best with the end-of-year implied rate falling an eighth of a point (or
14th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Stage Moderate Recovery From Long-Term Highs
Our daily 30yr fixed rate index hit 6.75% yesterday. This matched the high from May 19th and is the highest level since late July 29, 2025. The key contributor to the recent spike has been the uptick in fuel prices in July combined with the fact that rates never made it any lower than 6.52% over the past 2 months. In other words, we were already in a high range and the uptick in fuel prices simply gave rates a push. Heading into today, we knew there was potential volatility associated with 2 events: Fed Chair Warsh's congressional testimony and the monthly release of the Consumer Price Index (
Mortgage Rates Stage Moderate Recovery From Long-Term Highs
Our daily 30yr fixed rate index hit 6.75% yesterday. This matched the high from May 19th and is the highest level since late July 29, 2025. The key contributor to the recent spike has been the uptick in fuel prices in July combined with the fact that rates never made it any lower than 6.52% over the past 2 months. In other words, we were already in a high range and the uptick in fuel prices simply gave rates a push. Heading into today, we knew there was potential volatility associated with 2 events: Fed Chair Warsh's congressional testimony and the monthly release of the Consumer Price Index (
14th July, 26
CRA, Call Report, Non-QM U/W Tools; ROAD to Housing Bill Viewed; Immigration and Credit Reminder
Ever heard someone say something that was blatantly misleading? On July 16, at 2PM ET, you can race to buy one of Olive Garden’s 10,000 “Never Ending Pasta Passes.” But it does end, after 13 weeks. Yup, for $100 you can economically gain a lot of weight, since it’s in our DNA to do so. Speaking of DNA, do you really think that it is in the DNA of retail companies like Guild, American Pacific, Movement, CrossCountry, etc., to stop expanding? Nope, they’ll keep going, and if you want to know the mindset of a lender that doubled its purchase business from last year, listen to the
CRA, Call Report, Non-QM U/W Tools; ROAD to Housing Bill Viewed; Immigration and Credit Reminder
Ever heard someone say something that was blatantly misleading? On July 16, at 2PM ET, you can race to buy one of Olive Garden’s 10,000 “Never Ending Pasta Passes.” But it does end, after 13 weeks. Yup, for $100 you can economically gain a lot of weight, since it’s in our DNA to do so. Speaking of DNA, do you really think that it is in the DNA of retail companies like Guild, American Pacific, Movement, CrossCountry, etc., to stop expanding? Nope, they’ll keep going, and if you want to know the mindset of a lender that doubled its purchase business from last year, listen to the
14th July, 26
Strong Start After Sharply Lower CPI
The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI was more sharply negative than expected at -0.4 vs a -0.1 forecast. Supercore (which excludes housing) was down -0.2 which is the first negative reading in over a year. Core goods also remained in negative territory for a second straight month. Bonds rallied instantly, led by the short end of the curve (more closely tied to Fed rate expectations). But even 10yr yields are down over 5bps and MBS are up more than 3/8ths of a point.
Strong Start After Sharply Lower CPI
The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI was more sharply negative than expected at -0.4 vs a -0.1 forecast. Supercore (which excludes housing) was down -0.2 which is the first negative reading in over a year. Core goods also remained in negative territory for a second straight month. Bonds rallied instantly, led by the short end of the curve (more closely tied to Fed rate expectations). But even 10yr yields are down over 5bps and MBS are up more than 3/8ths of a point.