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16th April, 26
Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start
Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start This morning, more than halfway through the international trading day, bonds were on track for the narrowest trading range since February 24th. The low volatility didn't last. Sellers surfaced in response to several war-related headlines. Bond yields followed oil prices higher from 9am through 1pm ET. That said, it was still a fairly light day of movement in bonds with MBS only losing about an eighth of a point depending on when you look and 10yr yields up 3bps at 4.31+ in the final hour of trading. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Apr)/
Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start
Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start This morning, more than halfway through the international trading day, bonds were on track for the narrowest trading range since February 24th. The low volatility didn't last. Sellers surfaced in response to several war-related headlines. Bond yields followed oil prices higher from 9am through 1pm ET. That said, it was still a fairly light day of movement in bonds with MBS only losing about an eighth of a point depending on when you look and 10yr yields up 3bps at 4.31+ in the final hour of trading. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Apr)/
16th April, 26
Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Steady
On average, today's top-tier 30 year fixed mortgage rates are exactly the same as yesterday's. Rates are driven by the bond market and bonds continue waiting for bigger developments in the Iran war. At the moment, the market is in a sort of limbo as time remains on the 2-week ceasefire. In the meantime, there's a multitude of lower consequence war-related headlines on any given day. These have caused a bit of back and forth volatility in bonds, but not enough directional movement to nudge rates very far in either direction since Tuesday.
Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Steady
On average, today's top-tier 30 year fixed mortgage rates are exactly the same as yesterday's. Rates are driven by the bond market and bonds continue waiting for bigger developments in the Iran war. At the moment, the market is in a sort of limbo as time remains on the 2-week ceasefire. In the meantime, there's a multitude of lower consequence war-related headlines on any given day. These have caused a bit of back and forth volatility in bonds, but not enough directional movement to nudge rates very far in either direction since Tuesday.
16th April, 26
AOT, Warehouse, Homebuyer Report, Subservicing Tools; STRATMOR's "Who Owns the Borrower?" Population Trends
The U.S. Census Bureau released a downloadable file containing estimates of the nation’s resident population by single year of age and sex as of July 1, 2025. Nationwide lenders are always analyzing branch locations and market share. America’s post-pandemic relocation surge is losing momentum, with interstate migration falling to a decade low as once-booming Sun Belt markets like Texas and Florida face declining inflows amid sharply reduced affordability. The motivations behind moving are shifting away from jobs and cost savings toward proximity to family, signaling a more cautious and
AOT, Warehouse, Homebuyer Report, Subservicing Tools; STRATMOR's "Who Owns the Borrower?" Population Trends
The U.S. Census Bureau released a downloadable file containing estimates of the nation’s resident population by single year of age and sex as of July 1, 2025. Nationwide lenders are always analyzing branch locations and market share. America’s post-pandemic relocation surge is losing momentum, with interstate migration falling to a decade low as once-booming Sun Belt markets like Texas and Florida face declining inflows amid sharply reduced affordability. The motivations behind moving are shifting away from jobs and cost savings toward proximity to family, signaling a more cautious and
16th April, 26
Slowest Day in Over a Month. No Reaction to Data
Thursday has thus far been the slowest and most sideways day since February 24th, before the start of the Iran war. A lull in war-related developments is likely helping. While there are plenty of isolated headlines, the only thing the market really cares about is the timeline for the war to be over. As such, the present ceasefire is a sort of limbo that's clearly better than peak tension in late March, but not an "all clear" to jump back in the market (unless it's the stock market, apparently). There are a few economic reports this morning, but no market reaction
Slowest Day in Over a Month. No Reaction to Data
Thursday has thus far been the slowest and most sideways day since February 24th, before the start of the Iran war. A lull in war-related developments is likely helping. While there are plenty of isolated headlines, the only thing the market really cares about is the timeline for the war to be over. As such, the present ceasefire is a sort of limbo that's clearly better than peak tension in late March, but not an "all clear" to jump back in the market (unless it's the stock market, apparently). There are a few economic reports this morning, but no market reaction
15th April, 26
Very Small Token Pull-Back
Very Small Token Pull-Back Nothing really happened on Wednesday as far as the bond market was concerned. Yields were technically a few bps higher thus preserving the phenomenon of rally momentum being limited to 48-hour windows since the start of the Iran war. Despite a barrage of war-related headlines, there was remarkably light volatility in oil prices. Markets seem to be waiting on truly momentous developments (such as a major resumption of hostilities or a confirmed/permanent ceasefire). In the meantime, stocks and bonds both did their own thing today without any of the recently typical
Very Small Token Pull-Back
Very Small Token Pull-Back Nothing really happened on Wednesday as far as the bond market was concerned. Yields were technically a few bps higher thus preserving the phenomenon of rally momentum being limited to 48-hour windows since the start of the Iran war. Despite a barrage of war-related headlines, there was remarkably light volatility in oil prices. Markets seem to be waiting on truly momentous developments (such as a major resumption of hostilities or a confirmed/permanent ceasefire). In the meantime, stocks and bonds both did their own thing today without any of the recently typical
15th April, 26
Mortgage Rates Essentially Sideways at Recent Lows
On Tuesday, the average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit the lowest level in exactly 4 weeks. If you're not interested in splitting hairs, today's rates are essentially the same. Although our official average is 0.01% higher, that's such a small change that many of today's rate quotes will look the same as yesterday's. In the bigger picture, these rates are about halfway between the highs seen in late March and the lowest rates in more than 3 years seen at the end of February. The bond market (which dictates rates) remains focused on developments in the Iran war, but there's an ever
Mortgage Rates Essentially Sideways at Recent Lows
On Tuesday, the average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit the lowest level in exactly 4 weeks. If you're not interested in splitting hairs, today's rates are essentially the same. Although our official average is 0.01% higher, that's such a small change that many of today's rate quotes will look the same as yesterday's. In the bigger picture, these rates are about halfway between the highs seen in late March and the lowest rates in more than 3 years seen at the end of February. The bond market (which dictates rates) remains focused on developments in the Iran war, but there's an ever
15th April, 26
TBA Bidding, HELOC, DSCR, CRM, HMDA Analysis, MI Tools; Events Throughout 2026
According to Curinos’ proprietary application index, March 2026 funded mortgage volume increased 35 percent y-o-y and increased 30 percent m-o-m. How did your company stack up? Curinos calculates that refinance and purchase rates were 5-6 basis points lower m-o-m and about 73 basis points y-o-y. (Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures and drills into this data further here.) (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are Sponsored by Truework. Replace costly, error-prone verification waterfalls with a
TBA Bidding, HELOC, DSCR, CRM, HMDA Analysis, MI Tools; Events Throughout 2026
According to Curinos’ proprietary application index, March 2026 funded mortgage volume increased 35 percent y-o-y and increased 30 percent m-o-m. How did your company stack up? Curinos calculates that refinance and purchase rates were 5-6 basis points lower m-o-m and about 73 basis points y-o-y. (Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures and drills into this data further here.) (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are Sponsored by Truework. Replace costly, error-prone verification waterfalls with a
15th April, 26
Bonds Growing Tired of "Game On! Game Off!" News Cycle
Markets have plenty of war-related headlines to digest at any given moment these days. And while some of those headlines have been the biggest market movers of the month, traders are increasingly focusing on the examples that speak to the biggest-picture changes. Specifically, markets aren't as interested in Wayne and Garth saying "game on" and "game off," but rather, the actual moment that they pack up their sticks and nets and stop playing street hockey for the day (i.e. an announcement that the war is fully over and Hormuz is fully re-opened). In the meantime, the lesser headlines may
Bonds Growing Tired of "Game On! Game Off!" News Cycle
Markets have plenty of war-related headlines to digest at any given moment these days. And while some of those headlines have been the biggest market movers of the month, traders are increasingly focusing on the examples that speak to the biggest-picture changes. Specifically, markets aren't as interested in Wayne and Garth saying "game on" and "game off," but rather, the actual moment that they pack up their sticks and nets and stop playing street hockey for the day (i.e. an announcement that the war is fully over and Hormuz is fully re-opened). In the meantime, the lesser headlines may
14th April, 26
Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower On War-Related Optimism
Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower War-Related Optimism While there were no incredibly memorable sound bytes on the Iran war today, there were a few headlines that proved to be actionable for financial markets. The most actionable (by a wide margin) was a report on Fox News around 10am quoting a senior admin official as saying "a lot is happening today and tomorrow. We have all the ingredients of a deal, but it's not all there yet." This was paraphrased by Fox as "Senior Trump Admin. Official: Strong Indicators Toward Reaching Agreement With Iran." Oil and bond yields
Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower On War-Related Optimism
Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower War-Related Optimism While there were no incredibly memorable sound bytes on the Iran war today, there were a few headlines that proved to be actionable for financial markets. The most actionable (by a wide margin) was a report on Fox News around 10am quoting a senior admin official as saying "a lot is happening today and tomorrow. We have all the ingredients of a deal, but it's not all there yet." This was paraphrased by Fox as "Senior Trump Admin. Official: Strong Indicators Toward Reaching Agreement With Iran." Oil and bond yields
14th April, 26
Lowest Mortgage Rates in 4 Weeks
Mortgage rates had their best day of the month so far with the top tier 30yr fixed rate falling 0.08% for the average lender to the lowest levels in exactly 4 weeks. Today's improvement is a bit bigger than today's bond market movement would suggest. The discrepancy is due to timing. Bonds were improving fairly steadily since yesterday morning and the average lender didn't adjust yesterday's rates in response to the bond market improvement in the last few hours of the day. As such, that improvement was tacked on to today's. As for the drivers of the market movement, it's the same old story
Lowest Mortgage Rates in 4 Weeks
Mortgage rates had their best day of the month so far with the top tier 30yr fixed rate falling 0.08% for the average lender to the lowest levels in exactly 4 weeks. Today's improvement is a bit bigger than today's bond market movement would suggest. The discrepancy is due to timing. Bonds were improving fairly steadily since yesterday morning and the average lender didn't adjust yesterday's rates in response to the bond market improvement in the last few hours of the day. As such, that improvement was tacked on to today's. As for the drivers of the market movement, it's the same old story