The new home market returned to the longer-term range last month, with sales seeing their 4th biggest rebound in 4 years. Sales of new single-family homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August, up 6.4% from July's revised 643,000 but 2.0% below the same month last year. The increase puts sales back above the 600,000 mark after July's pullback, although the broader trend remains relatively flat. The number of new houses for sale was virtually unchanged at 483,000 , down 2.0% from a year earlier. With sales picking up while inventory held steady, the implied…
Mortgage demand remained subdued last week as the 30-year fixed rate climbed above 7%. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.5% decline in total mortgage application volume for the week ending September 18, following a 4.1% drop the week before. Purchase activity was the only saving grace. While technically 1% lower week-over-week, it has generally been moving sideways for the past few weeks. Refinance demand was more sluggish. The Refinance Index declined another 3% and was 62% lower than a year earlier. MBA said the pace of refinancing has now reached its slowest…
(NOTE: This article was updated at 5:30pm from the version originally published at 2:36pm ET to reflect late day rate improvements). Mortgage rates have risen more than half a point in 2 weeks. While that's certainly not the fastest jump we've seen, it is an extraordinarily uncommon pace--happening less than once per year on average (i.e. it only happened 3 times between 2010 and 2019). Today's initial increase was modest in the bigger picture, adding only 0.04% to yesterday's levels and leaving the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate still just a hair below 7.50%. This is roughly in line…
“Hey, it’s either network or no work.” For lenders, networking is an important part of their business. In addition, generally speaking, renters are prime “feeding grounds” for loan originators searching for clients. But there’s some disturbing signs out there: what if renters can’t even afford their rent? I was talking to a successful LO recently who uttered, “50 calls, 5 leads, 2 applications, 1 closing. The next day, 50 calls, 5 leads, 2 applications, 1 closing. Rinse and repeat, every day, it’s a pyramid.” Being an originator is a numbers game, as is running a branch. A manager recently…
10yr yields began the morning in slightly stronger territory, generally following a modest decline in oil prices overnight. That trend actually ran its course by 5am ET and yields began rising gradually at that time. Sellers picked up the pace after 10am (partly oil-related, but certainly also plenty of bond-specific selling pressure). Yields are now up a few bps on the day with the 10yr at 5.227 as of 10:45am. MBS, meanwhile are still just a hair stronger (though they've also lost ground at the same time as Treasuries). The outperformance has a lot to do with the yield curve today. Shorter…
Brutal Day And For The Scariest Reasons Despite a slightly stronger start and initial promise of resilience in the face of higher oil prices, bonds bounced nauseatingly higher starting around 10am. Oil prices do a fairly terrible job of explaining the bond weakness, even though oil moved a few bucks higher throughout the day. So what moved markets? That's the scary part: there was no obvious intraday catalyst. The fact is that a lot of traders have decided to sell a lot of bonds very quickly. As obvious as that sounds, we're referring to a staggering uptick in volume as well as average volume…
More than a few media outlets will tell you that 30yr fixed mortgage rates are just now moving over 7% based on the fact that Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey hit 7.03%, up from 6.95% last week. Before continuing, let's be clear that Freddie's weekly rates are a valuable resource for long-term, big picture analysis. But the survey is not an ideal tool to keep track of where rates are on any given day. There are a few reasons for this, but the easiest to understand is that today's update from Freddie is calculated from an average of rates seen between last Wednesday and yesterday. In…
When in doubt, hold a conference. It is an aging group of attendees… exhibitors’ displays and giveaways tell the tale. Frisbees have been replaced with reading glasses. Golf balls by nail files and hangover remedy pouches. MBA cut its 2027 forecast to $2.101 trillion; $634 billion is what the Mortgage Bankers Association now expects Americans to refinance in all of 2027. What’s new out there? At the ACUMA event, I had a chance to spend some time with Kent Staudmyer with NFP Property & Casualty Services, Inc.. Home equity is a big growth area, and NFP provides a credit enhancement for Home…
Let's not get too excited. After all, today's yields are the second highest in 19 years, but still... this morning's price action is better than a sharp stick in the eye. Bonds held almost perfectly flat in the overnight session and Fed rate expectations tempered yesterday's exuberance a bit (hence, 2yr yields are down 3-4bps more than 10yr yields). The refreshing part is that we're seeing modest gains despite oil prices being a few bucks higher. In other words, oil gave bonds an excuse to keep losing ground this morning, but instead, we're modestly stronger. None of today's data has the same…
Why Bonds Sold Off So Severely Today The only number higher than the amount of bonds sold today is the number of people rushing to judgment about "WHY." It wasn't a diesel export ban (or lack thereof), higher oil prices, or the 5yr Treasury auction (see today's recap video if need proof). The initial pop at 9:45am was entirely driven by S&P PMI data. A majority of the selling since then has occurred in stunningly linear fashion without any "event risk" volume spikes. It has also largely tracked with stock losses. This is exactly what it looks like when a big outlier in econ…
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