What's Up With Monday's Weakness? Bonds were moderately weaker on Monday and not in a way that was obviously connected to any of the potential scapegoats. We know that there was selling in the EU bond market overnight and while U.S. yields correlated with much of that move, that correlation broke down precisely when an EU-driven move would have been most relevant. It's easier to blame an ongoing recovery in the tech space even though there's a similar lack of elegant correlation between tech stocks and bond yields. Bottom line: Treasuries benefited from last week's moments of…
Mortgage rates were moderately higher to start the new week, adding to the modest losses seen on Friday. The silver lining is that any of the past 3 business days saw the lowest rates since September 23rd. There were no clear reasons for today's rate movement in terms of economic reports or news headlines. The same was true for last week's biggest swings which were driven by broad bond market sentiment as traders sought safer havens due to concerns about a pull-back in the tech sector. On that note, tech stocks had their best day in several weeks today with much of the improvement already…
“There’s a cohort of American males who believe that, with 1-2 years of dedicated practice, they could win the Masters golf tournament. As a marketer, it is important to understand that you can sell these people anything.” Advertising is not the same as marketing (it’s a component of it) and artificial intelligence is a part of it, especially for lenders. Many will say that any AI Agent should proclaim, “I am an AI Agent,” and anything from a bot should proclaim, “I am from a bot.” Would you let an “AI Agent” manage your money? Or move money in escrow? After Muse launch, U.S. Banks are saying…
Last week's most notable development was a flight to safety in the bond market precipitated by concerns about a shift in tech sector sentiment. The shift in question was mainly driven by Coreweave which saw shares plummet and corporate debt spreads explode. That cause some concern about spillover to the rest of the tech sector. Treasuries benefited not only only from general safe haven demand, but also because the tech jitters implied a slower pace of AI capex and corporate debt issuance (both of which had previously created upward pressure on bond yields). The NASDAQ is starting the new week…
Could Have Been Better. Could Have Been Worse If the bond market was a Mario Bro, it found a gold star at some point on Wednesday. As Thursday afternoon, the gold star ran out of juice and we're back to regular old Mario. In other words, astonishing resilience/bullishness has been replaced by a sideways-to-slightly-weaker grind. It could be as simple as the desire among traders to consolidate recent gains without getting too carried away. Ongoing selling in tech stocks ostensibly allowed for another bond rally, so the fact that we lost a bit of ground could end up looking like an important…
If you're busy, we can make this quick. Existing home sales dropped sharply from over 6m units per year starting in 2022 and had bottomed out around 4m units per year by the end of 2023. They've done essentially nothing exciting since then and the latest update is no exception. The end. If you prefer to read an article-sized article, here you go: Existing-home sales edged higher in September with The National Association of REALTORS® reporting a 1.5% increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million . August and September mark the two slowest months for home sales this year,…
Mortgage applications continued to lose ground as mortgage rates held near their highest levels in nearly three years. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decline in total mortgage application volume for the week ending October 9. That's an important date, because a substantial majority of a fairly sharp decline in interest rates occurred AFTER October 9. As such, next week's data is a great opportunity to see the impact of lower rates. Purchase activity took another step back, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index falling 4% for the week and running 16% below…
After dropping sharply over the past 5 days, mortgage rates finally reminded us that they're still capable of moving higher. Thankfully, today's bump was modest in the recent context, only adding 0.04% to a 30yr fixed that had fallen 0.27% since October 7th. Even though today's losses were minimal, they're potentially informative. Much of this week's improvement can be traced to concerns surrounding tech companies, and possible warning signs about a reduction in AI-related spending/investment throughout the sector. While it's too early to draw any conclusions about such things, we…
The MBA believes that 2027’s production will be 5 percent less than 2026’s and be below $2 trillion. “Rob, are you hearing that, with volumes down (units and volume), lenders are once again examining keeping entire loan originator workforces?” Indeed I am. At the most basic level, as we move through autumn and into winter with no sign of greatly improved rates and the spring “home buying season” five months away, lenders are asking, “Is the LO carrying him/herself?” Lenders are moving LOs to part-time status, cutting benefits when possible, or suggesting they “find success elsewhere.” Many…
The past two days saw a unique confluence of factors that led to a precipitous, unexpected, and fairly large rally in the bond market. The easiest scapegoat is the general notion of fear surrounding AI/tech share prices and debt contagion. One simple effect was investors reallocating out of stocks and into bonds. Another effect could be investors shifting out of AI corporate debt into safer havens. Either way, it doesn't feel like a coincidence that tech stocks slid roughly 5% over the exact same time frame as the 10yr rallied from 5.34 to 5.07. If we use the QQQ ETF as a loose…
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