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2nd April, 26
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Lower This Week
On any given Thursday, there's a decent enough chance that the average mortgage rate headline will be unintentionally misleading. At issue is media reliance on the longstanding weekly mortgage rate surveys. If news stories are going to cite this data, that's fine, but it's critical to understand the methodology. Whether it's MBA (reported yesterday) or Freddie Mac (reported today), the weekly surveys have an inherent reporting lag--that is, they are published at least a day after data collection ends. In addition, they represent an average of 5 business days. This means that the weekly
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Lower This Week
On any given Thursday, there's a decent enough chance that the average mortgage rate headline will be unintentionally misleading. At issue is media reliance on the longstanding weekly mortgage rate surveys. If news stories are going to cite this data, that's fine, but it's critical to understand the methodology. Whether it's MBA (reported yesterday) or Freddie Mac (reported today), the weekly surveys have an inherent reporting lag--that is, they are published at least a day after data collection ends. In addition, they represent an average of 5 business days. This means that the weekly
2nd April, 26
Social Security, Equity, Processing Tools; Freddie and Fannie Shifts; Release From Conservatorship Slim
“Rob, what do you hear about Fannie & Freddie being released from conservatorship?” Not much. Although it may change with one random tweet, the idea & process of jettisoning them is not even “on the back burner”… It may be back in the refrigerator. Maybe 2031? Both are certainly building up their net worth, but they don’t have enough capital to be released based on the amount of capital required under an Administrative Rule. The U.S. Government doesn’t want to lose control, or the income, and MBS traders and investors don’t want to lose the government guarantee. Scott
Social Security, Equity, Processing Tools; Freddie and Fannie Shifts; Release From Conservatorship Slim
“Rob, what do you hear about Fannie & Freddie being released from conservatorship?” Not much. Although it may change with one random tweet, the idea & process of jettisoning them is not even “on the back burner”… It may be back in the refrigerator. Maybe 2031? Both are certainly building up their net worth, but they don’t have enough capital to be released based on the amount of capital required under an Administrative Rule. The U.S. Government doesn’t want to lose control, or the income, and MBS traders and investors don’t want to lose the government guarantee. Scott
2nd April, 26
Trump Speech Fuels Another Leg Up For Oil and Yields
Things don't always happen like you'd expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night's Trump speech. Even during the domestic trading day, we knew the speech would offer some touting of accomplishments and a reiteration that objectives were "nearly complete." Both of those things happened, but the speech also promised forceful escalation under certain circumstances. While that's nothing new, it wasn't what the market was hoping to hear last night. As a result, oil prices and bond yields spiked and stocks sold symmetrically. Bonds are juggling the dueling narratives of
Trump Speech Fuels Another Leg Up For Oil and Yields
Things don't always happen like you'd expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night's Trump speech. Even during the domestic trading day, we knew the speech would offer some touting of accomplishments and a reiteration that objectives were "nearly complete." Both of those things happened, but the speech also promised forceful escalation under certain circumstances. While that's nothing new, it wasn't what the market was hoping to hear last night. As a result, oil prices and bond yields spiked and stocks sold symmetrically. Bonds are juggling the dueling narratives of
1st April, 26
Surprisingly Light Volatility
Surprisingly Light Volatility Bonds digested several big ticket economic reports as well as a host of war-related headlines that probably would have caused a much bigger reaction a few weeks ago. But the net effect was an almost perfectly flat day by the 3pm CME close. If anything, the data caused some weakness and we can say bonds would have rallied more noticeably otherwise. The weak response is no surprise considering all 3 reports were stronger than expected. This also serves as a reminder that Friday's jobs report is still a relevant market mover despite a general focus on the war and
Surprisingly Light Volatility
Surprisingly Light Volatility Bonds digested several big ticket economic reports as well as a host of war-related headlines that probably would have caused a much bigger reaction a few weeks ago. But the net effect was an almost perfectly flat day by the 3pm CME close. If anything, the data caused some weakness and we can say bonds would have rallied more noticeably otherwise. The weak response is no surprise considering all 3 reports were stronger than expected. This also serves as a reminder that Friday's jobs report is still a relevant market mover despite a general focus on the war and
1st April, 26
Mortgage Rates Steady to Slightly Lower
Mortgage rates were little-changed on Wednesday, despite the release of several economic reports and another deluge of war-related headlines. In the slightly bigger picture, the market is trading with some sense of hope of a finite timeline for the war. Today, that meant a moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields (aka "rates"). Bonds struggled to maintain the improvement after this morning's economic reports which were broadly stronger than expected. In general, stronger econ data suggests higher rates, all else equal. In addition to stronger employment and retail sales reports, a key
Mortgage Rates Steady to Slightly Lower
Mortgage rates were little-changed on Wednesday, despite the release of several economic reports and another deluge of war-related headlines. In the slightly bigger picture, the market is trading with some sense of hope of a finite timeline for the war. Today, that meant a moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields (aka "rates"). Bonds struggled to maintain the improvement after this morning's economic reports which were broadly stronger than expected. In general, stronger econ data suggests higher rates, all else equal. In addition to stronger employment and retail sales reports, a key
1st April, 26
Another Big Drop in Refi Demand, But Still Higher Year Over Year
Mortgage applications fell for the third consecutive week amid an increasingly volatile rate environment. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 27. The Refinance Index fell 17% from the previous week, but remains 33% higher than the same week one year ago. Purchase activity also declined, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index dropping 3% , just 1% above year-ago levels. MBA’s Mike Fratantoni notes "higher rates are being offset somewhat by the buyer’s market in many parts of the country
Another Big Drop in Refi Demand, But Still Higher Year Over Year
Mortgage applications fell for the third consecutive week amid an increasingly volatile rate environment. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 27. The Refinance Index fell 17% from the previous week, but remains 33% higher than the same week one year ago. Purchase activity also declined, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index dropping 3% , just 1% above year-ago levels. MBA’s Mike Fratantoni notes "higher rates are being offset somewhat by the buyer’s market in many parts of the country
1st April, 26
Community Dev., Non-Del Non-QM, Hedging Products; Credit News; Capital Markets
Time flies, Apple turns 50 today, the first quarter is in the books, and here in Northern Nevada, like everywhere, lenders are watching trends and technology. There are all kinds of lists out there, but for those who prefer the CFPB’s data, there’s HMDA Market Share Dashboards for Origination Statistics. In terms of technology, there’s always something new in the AI lender world, and there are firms that specialize in it including Ocrolus, TRUE, Aiva AI & Automation, Marr Labs, TrustEngine, Friday Harbor, AiCR, Guideline Buddy, JazzX AI, and MOZAIQ listed in the Marketplace. “
Community Dev., Non-Del Non-QM, Hedging Products; Credit News; Capital Markets
Time flies, Apple turns 50 today, the first quarter is in the books, and here in Northern Nevada, like everywhere, lenders are watching trends and technology. There are all kinds of lists out there, but for those who prefer the CFPB’s data, there’s HMDA Market Share Dashboards for Origination Statistics. In terms of technology, there’s always something new in the AI lender world, and there are firms that specialize in it including Ocrolus, TRUE, Aiva AI & Automation, Marr Labs, TrustEngine, Friday Harbor, AiCR, Guideline Buddy, JazzX AI, and MOZAIQ listed in the Marketplace. “
1st April, 26
Data and War Headlines Erase Overnight Gains
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session after Trump said the US may exit the war soon. Those gains have been more than erased (just barely) after this morning's data. Both ADP and Retail Sales were stronger than expected although it should be noted that Retail Sales is for the month of February in this case. New Trump headlines also added to the pull-back as he declined to give a timeline on an Iran exit. As of 9:30am ET, MBS were just a hair weaker than unchanged and 10yr yields were up 1.3bps at 4.327. ISM Manufacturing remains on deck at 10am ET and a big beat/miss could have an
Data and War Headlines Erase Overnight Gains
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session after Trump said the US may exit the war soon. Those gains have been more than erased (just barely) after this morning's data. Both ADP and Retail Sales were stronger than expected although it should be noted that Retail Sales is for the month of February in this case. New Trump headlines also added to the pull-back as he declined to give a timeline on an Iran exit. As of 9:30am ET, MBS were just a hair weaker than unchanged and 10yr yields were up 1.3bps at 4.327. ISM Manufacturing remains on deck at 10am ET and a big beat/miss could have an
31st March, 26
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion Q1 was fairly eventful for the bond market with solid--sometimes puzzling--gains in February followed by a relative rout in March. Heavy quarter-end rebalancing flows are making for more volatility than normal at 4pm ET, but up until that point, 10yr yields had rallied roughly 8bps. Those gains were fueled by headlines that spoke to potential de-escalation in Iran--something that's easy enough to confirm by examining the corresponding drop in oil prices and spike in stocks. That said, the underlying news falls short of marking a distinct
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion Q1 was fairly eventful for the bond market with solid--sometimes puzzling--gains in February followed by a relative rout in March. Heavy quarter-end rebalancing flows are making for more volatility than normal at 4pm ET, but up until that point, 10yr yields had rallied roughly 8bps. Those gains were fueled by headlines that spoke to potential de-escalation in Iran--something that's easy enough to confirm by examining the corresponding drop in oil prices and spike in stocks. That said, the underlying news falls short of marking a distinct
31st March, 26
Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 6.5%
Mortgage rates moved lower for the second straight day as markets responded to potential de-escalation in the Iran war. Rates are based on bonds and bonds improved overnight as The President said the war could end even if the Strait of Hormuz was not yet reopened. Additional improvement followed during domestic hours based on headlines that suggested Iranian officials were "ready to end the war." The market reaction might have been bigger had those claims not been contingent on Iran wanting "certain guarantees." They also came from Iran's President and not the Supreme Leader. Still
Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 6.5%
Mortgage rates moved lower for the second straight day as markets responded to potential de-escalation in the Iran war. Rates are based on bonds and bonds improved overnight as The President said the war could end even if the Strait of Hormuz was not yet reopened. Additional improvement followed during domestic hours based on headlines that suggested Iranian officials were "ready to end the war." The market reaction might have been bigger had those claims not been contingent on Iran wanting "certain guarantees." They also came from Iran's President and not the Supreme Leader. Still