Latest news
2nd March, 26
Big Bad Day For Bonds. What's Next?
Big Bad Day For Bonds. What's Next? Bonds sold off early and aggressively on Monday in a move that most onlookers are quickly attributing to geopolitics. Specifically, the thought is that higher oil prices imply higher inflation and, thus, higher rates. While some traders probably woke up and decided to sell bonds based on this logic, they didn't account for the pace of the sell-off. Rather, it was a perfect storm of timing and technicals with Friday's month-end positioning leaving bonds overbought and well through the 4% technical floor. Today ran the risk of being a selling day anyway, but
Big Bad Day For Bonds. What's Next?
Big Bad Day For Bonds. What's Next? Bonds sold off early and aggressively on Monday in a move that most onlookers are quickly attributing to geopolitics. Specifically, the thought is that higher oil prices imply higher inflation and, thus, higher rates. While some traders probably woke up and decided to sell bonds based on this logic, they didn't account for the pace of the sell-off. Rather, it was a perfect storm of timing and technicals with Friday's month-end positioning leaving bonds overbought and well through the 4% technical floor. Today ran the risk of being a selling day anyway, but
2nd March, 26
Mortgage Rates Jump Back Into The 6's
Mortgage rates began the new week with a fairly quick jump back into the low 6% range (top tier 30yr fixed rate for the average lender). With the news cycle very focused on developments in Iran, most coverage attempts to correlate geopolitical events with market movement. The only legitimate way to do this would be to say that upward pressure on oil prices is translating to higher inflation implications and therefore higher rates. At many times in the past, this would be a solid conclusion. To some small extent, a case could even be made for this correlation accounting for a portion of today's
Mortgage Rates Jump Back Into The 6's
Mortgage rates began the new week with a fairly quick jump back into the low 6% range (top tier 30yr fixed rate for the average lender). With the news cycle very focused on developments in Iran, most coverage attempts to correlate geopolitical events with market movement. The only legitimate way to do this would be to say that upward pressure on oil prices is translating to higher inflation implications and therefore higher rates. At many times in the past, this would be a solid conclusion. To some small extent, a case could even be made for this correlation accounting for a portion of today's
2nd March, 26
HELOC, AI/Compliance, eNote Products; Skiing and AI Events/Training; Capital Markets
In what seems to be the blink of an eye we’re down two months of 2026, and by most accounts they were decent for lenders and vendors. Here in Ft. Lauderdale at the Lenders One Summit, the talk in the hallways, like that at several recent conferences, is centered around a handful of topics, M&A being one of them, and the desire for companies to control the “funnel.” STRATMOR’s Garth Graham, who resides nearby, last night told me that STRATMOR has a full complement of buyers and sellers and we discussed the Rocket/Compass deal and its relation to the Rocket/Redfin deal. Will the 80-
HELOC, AI/Compliance, eNote Products; Skiing and AI Events/Training; Capital Markets
In what seems to be the blink of an eye we’re down two months of 2026, and by most accounts they were decent for lenders and vendors. Here in Ft. Lauderdale at the Lenders One Summit, the talk in the hallways, like that at several recent conferences, is centered around a handful of topics, M&A being one of them, and the desire for companies to control the “funnel.” STRATMOR’s Garth Graham, who resides nearby, last night told me that STRATMOR has a full complement of buyers and sellers and we discussed the Rocket/Compass deal and its relation to the Rocket/Redfin deal. Will the 80-
2nd March, 26
March Starts Sharply Weaker. Is it Iran?
Spoiler alert: it's not Iran. And this morning's yields are the 2nd lowest in more than 3 months behind last Friday. Last Friday was also a month-end trading day with a mini snowball rally that defied overt explanation (apart from "month end bond buying")--a fact that led us to warn about the risk of "new month bond selling." It's not that bonds always rally at month-end or sell off when the new month begins, but if there's a sharp, inexplicable move on the last day of any given month, the risks of a reversal increase on the first day of the following month. Geopolitical headlines may
March Starts Sharply Weaker. Is it Iran?
Spoiler alert: it's not Iran. And this morning's yields are the 2nd lowest in more than 3 months behind last Friday. Last Friday was also a month-end trading day with a mini snowball rally that defied overt explanation (apart from "month end bond buying")--a fact that led us to warn about the risk of "new month bond selling." It's not that bonds always rally at month-end or sell off when the new month begins, but if there's a sharp, inexplicable move on the last day of any given month, the risks of a reversal increase on the first day of the following month. Geopolitical headlines may
27th February, 26
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close Bonds ended the week/month at their strongest levels with 10yr yields breaking below the 4.0% floor to close at 3.95+. In addition to the low outright levels, the journey was accomplished with minimal volatility along the way. This is potentially surprising given this morning's much higher PPI numbers, but as discussed in the AM commentary, PPI is notoriously volatile and hasn't had a noticeable impact since 2024. Next week brings the typical early month, big ticket econ data (ISM, ADP, and the jobs report). Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close
Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close Bonds ended the week/month at their strongest levels with 10yr yields breaking below the 4.0% floor to close at 3.95+. In addition to the low outright levels, the journey was accomplished with minimal volatility along the way. This is potentially surprising given this morning's much higher PPI numbers, but as discussed in the AM commentary, PPI is notoriously volatile and hasn't had a noticeable impact since 2024. Next week brings the typical early month, big ticket econ data (ISM, ADP, and the jobs report). Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/
27th February, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week at Best Levels
At this point, it is getting a bit repetitive to bring up "the lowest rates in more than 3 years"--something that was officially the case twice this week. If we give rates credit for stably holding these long-term lows (and we should!), then every day this week has been the best in more than 3 years. Here's the specific record: at no other time in the history of our rate index have rates begun a week at long-term lows and experienced so little volatility. There was a somewhat similar stretch of 4 days in March 2019, but rates had only hit a 2 year low at the time. On average, when rates hit
Mortgage Rates End Week at Best Levels
At this point, it is getting a bit repetitive to bring up "the lowest rates in more than 3 years"--something that was officially the case twice this week. If we give rates credit for stably holding these long-term lows (and we should!), then every day this week has been the best in more than 3 years. Here's the specific record: at no other time in the history of our rate index have rates begun a week at long-term lows and experienced so little volatility. There was a somewhat similar stretch of 4 days in March 2019, but rates had only hit a 2 year low at the time. On average, when rates hit
27th February, 26
Mortgage Demand Calm Before The Storm?
Mortgage application activity edged ever-so-slightly higher last week, with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reporting an increase of 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending February 20. Refi applications continue to do the heavy lifting. The Refinance Index increased 4% from the previous week and was 150% higher than the same week one year ago. Conventional refinance applications rose 5% for the week, while VA refinances jumped 26%, as rates declined to their lowest levels since September 2022. Notably, rates have moved even lower this week and have held these new multi-
Mortgage Demand Calm Before The Storm?
Mortgage application activity edged ever-so-slightly higher last week, with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reporting an increase of 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending February 20. Refi applications continue to do the heavy lifting. The Refinance Index increased 4% from the previous week and was 150% higher than the same week one year ago. Conventional refinance applications rose 5% for the week, while VA refinances jumped 26%, as rates declined to their lowest levels since September 2022. Notably, rates have moved even lower this week and have held these new multi-
27th February, 26
Home Prices Still Rising, But Pace Remains Subdued
Home price appreciation pulled back slightly at the end of last year, according to December data from both FHFA and S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller. The reports reinforce the message that prices continued to appreciate modestly through the end of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index shows home prices up 1.8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 0.8% quarter-over-quarter . On a monthly basis, prices rose just 0.1% in December , suggesting continued but subdued momentum. On a 3-month basis (which helps smooth out month-to-month volatility while still capturing more
Home Prices Still Rising, But Pace Remains Subdued
Home price appreciation pulled back slightly at the end of last year, according to December data from both FHFA and S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller. The reports reinforce the message that prices continued to appreciate modestly through the end of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index shows home prices up 1.8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 0.8% quarter-over-quarter . On a monthly basis, prices rose just 0.1% in December , suggesting continued but subdued momentum. On a 3-month basis (which helps smooth out month-to-month volatility while still capturing more
27th February, 26
Fraud, Processing, Verification Waterfall Products; Fairway and Insurance; Conv. Conforming Changes
Can’t you feel the anticipation building? March 5th… Trigger leads… Don’t tell me that you’ve forgotten all about it. When a borrower applies for a mortgage and their credit is pulled, that data has historically been sold as a “trigger lead” and dozens of calls are received. Starting March 5, according to the law, credit bureaus can no longer sell trigger leads, the borrower’s lender can still contact them, and the current servicer may also reach out. Originators are reminding clients that online forms and third-party sites can still resell their information, so where they
Fraud, Processing, Verification Waterfall Products; Fairway and Insurance; Conv. Conforming Changes
Can’t you feel the anticipation building? March 5th… Trigger leads… Don’t tell me that you’ve forgotten all about it. When a borrower applies for a mortgage and their credit is pulled, that data has historically been sold as a “trigger lead” and dozens of calls are received. Starting March 5, according to the law, credit bureaus can no longer sell trigger leads, the borrower’s lender can still contact them, and the current servicer may also reach out. Originators are reminding clients that online forms and third-party sites can still resell their information, so where they
27th February, 26
Starting Out Under 4.0% Despite Hotter PPI
We'd already discussed the fact that PPI has fallen by the wayside as a relevant market mover for bonds despite one or two instances of relevance nearly 2 years ago when bonds were desperate for any hints of change. Today's PPI results and the ensuing bond market movement leave no doubt as to the relevance of this data. Spoiler alert: there's basically no relevance at the moment. The following chart expresses some uncertainty in labeling this morning's small bump in yields as a reaction to PPI. Reasons being: it didn't begin until 8:38am and the volume reaction happened from 8:30-8:34am.&
Starting Out Under 4.0% Despite Hotter PPI
We'd already discussed the fact that PPI has fallen by the wayside as a relevant market mover for bonds despite one or two instances of relevance nearly 2 years ago when bonds were desperate for any hints of change. Today's PPI results and the ensuing bond market movement leave no doubt as to the relevance of this data. Spoiler alert: there's basically no relevance at the moment. The following chart expresses some uncertainty in labeling this morning's small bump in yields as a reaction to PPI. Reasons being: it didn't begin until 8:38am and the volume reaction happened from 8:30-8:34am.&