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19th March, 26
Volatile Day Thanks to Central Banks And, Eventually Oil
Volatile Day Thanks to Central Banks And, Eventually Oil Bonds took a break from their lock-step tango with oil prices for most of today's session instead focusing on European Central Bank (ECB) policy news. Key considerations included a sharply higher inflation forecast, warnings of additional upside risks, and a repricing of rate hike (not cut) expectations for 2026. Combined with yesterday's bad reaction to the Fed, the front end of the yield curve got hit hard--especially in the morning--and the pain radiated outward from there. During the selling spree, oil prices were staying well
Volatile Day Thanks to Central Banks And, Eventually Oil
Volatile Day Thanks to Central Banks And, Eventually Oil Bonds took a break from their lock-step tango with oil prices for most of today's session instead focusing on European Central Bank (ECB) policy news. Key considerations included a sharply higher inflation forecast, warnings of additional upside risks, and a repricing of rate hike (not cut) expectations for 2026. Combined with yesterday's bad reaction to the Fed, the front end of the yield curve got hit hard--especially in the morning--and the pain radiated outward from there. During the selling spree, oil prices were staying well
19th March, 26
Broker, Correspondent, Subservicer Oversight Tools; IMB Cost $11k Per Loan; STRATMOR Survey
The FHFA announced that Fannie and Freddie will remove ‘certain’ homeowners insurance requirements which may reduce costs. But what are people saying about where their industry-facing priorities are? Both are focused on leveraging technology and reminding lenders of their existing products. For example, Fannie offers a construction to perm program, as does Freddie Mac, and has “MH Advantage” for manufactured homes; Freddie has something similar. Both have the problem of educating the market about their products. Undisclosed debt and occupancy fraud are still issues, and appraisal
Broker, Correspondent, Subservicer Oversight Tools; IMB Cost $11k Per Loan; STRATMOR Survey
The FHFA announced that Fannie and Freddie will remove ‘certain’ homeowners insurance requirements which may reduce costs. But what are people saying about where their industry-facing priorities are? Both are focused on leveraging technology and reminding lenders of their existing products. For example, Fannie offers a construction to perm program, as does Freddie Mac, and has “MH Advantage” for manufactured homes; Freddie has something similar. Both have the problem of educating the market about their products. Undisclosed debt and occupancy fraud are still issues, and appraisal
19th March, 26
Bonds Ignore Oil in Favor of Repricing The Rate Outlook
At almost any moment in March 2026, a glance at the "10yr vs oil price" chart has revealed sufficient correlation to blame the bond rout on the energy price spiral. But the correlation is spotty at times and today is one of the starkest examples. Oil is essentially flat while bonds surged to higher yields overnight. We don't normally focus much on 2yr Treasuries, but the selling there is much worse than in the 10yr, reflecting a rapidly changing outlook for the Fed Funds Rate. Indeed the odds of a rate HIKE (not cut) in April rose from just over 4% to just over 10% this morning. The big shifts
Bonds Ignore Oil in Favor of Repricing The Rate Outlook
At almost any moment in March 2026, a glance at the "10yr vs oil price" chart has revealed sufficient correlation to blame the bond rout on the energy price spiral. But the correlation is spotty at times and today is one of the starkest examples. Oil is essentially flat while bonds surged to higher yields overnight. We don't normally focus much on 2yr Treasuries, but the selling there is much worse than in the 10yr, reflecting a rapidly changing outlook for the Fed Funds Rate. Indeed the odds of a rate HIKE (not cut) in April rose from just over 4% to just over 10% this morning. The big shifts
18th March, 26
Mortgage Rates Move Back Up Near Recent Highs
Mortgage rates got hit 3 times on Wednesday, with the net effect being a move back up to the highest levels in several months. The average lender isn't quite as high as they were last Friday, but after late-day "reprices" many are fairly close. The least of the bond market's concerns (bonds dictate rates) was this morning's inflation data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was higher than expected on multiple fronts, including those that translate directly to higher consumer prices in the more robust PCE inflation data that comes out on April 9th. Higher inflation = higher rates, all else
Mortgage Rates Move Back Up Near Recent Highs
Mortgage rates got hit 3 times on Wednesday, with the net effect being a move back up to the highest levels in several months. The average lender isn't quite as high as they were last Friday, but after late-day "reprices" many are fairly close. The least of the bond market's concerns (bonds dictate rates) was this morning's inflation data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was higher than expected on multiple fronts, including those that translate directly to higher consumer prices in the more robust PCE inflation data that comes out on April 9th. Higher inflation = higher rates, all else
18th March, 26
Bonds Weren't Prepared For Fed's Inflation Fears
Bonds Weren't Prepared For Fed's Inflation Fears If anything, you'd think the market would have been pricing in a hawkish Fed day, given the run up in energy prices. But Powell threw reporters a curve ball during the press conference and instead placed the focus on other categories of inflation that were under the microscope before the energy price spike (like core goods and non-housing services), saying there'd been less progress than hoped. The takeaway was that rate cuts are on hold for the foreseeable future. The market agrees, as it is now pricing the next rate cut at more than a year in
Bonds Weren't Prepared For Fed's Inflation Fears
Bonds Weren't Prepared For Fed's Inflation Fears If anything, you'd think the market would have been pricing in a hawkish Fed day, given the run up in energy prices. But Powell threw reporters a curve ball during the press conference and instead placed the focus on other categories of inflation that were under the microscope before the energy price spike (like core goods and non-housing services), saying there'd been less progress than hoped. The takeaway was that rate cuts are on hold for the foreseeable future. The market agrees, as it is now pricing the next rate cut at more than a year in
18th March, 26
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. In support of
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. In support of
18th March, 26
Servicing, CRM, BI, QC, HELOC, TBA, Title Products; STRATMOR on Servicing; UAD 3.6
Among the hot topics in the hallways of the ICE Experience is the evolution in data contained in each lien, along with massive appraisal change hitting our biz. I was chatting with Class Valuation’s Mark Walser yesterday about UAD 3.6. (If you’d like a primer on it, and you should, see this write up by Mike Simmons.) On 11/2/26, all appraisals, to be eligible for sale to Fannie and Freddie, must be submitted in UAD (Uniform Appraisal Dataset) 3.6 format. From what Mark said, lenders need to have begun setting up the process and planning in the first quarter of 2026, and spend the 2nd and
Servicing, CRM, BI, QC, HELOC, TBA, Title Products; STRATMOR on Servicing; UAD 3.6
Among the hot topics in the hallways of the ICE Experience is the evolution in data contained in each lien, along with massive appraisal change hitting our biz. I was chatting with Class Valuation’s Mark Walser yesterday about UAD 3.6. (If you’d like a primer on it, and you should, see this write up by Mike Simmons.) On 11/2/26, all appraisals, to be eligible for sale to Fannie and Freddie, must be submitted in UAD (Uniform Appraisal Dataset) 3.6 format. From what Mark said, lenders need to have begun setting up the process and planning in the first quarter of 2026, and spend the 2nd and
18th March, 26
Overnight Gains Erased by PPI/Oil. Fed on Deck
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was this morning's only big ticket econ data and calling it "big ticket" is a bit of a stretch. PPI often passes without a trace, but can occasionally get an obvious response even if it's not a huge response. Today's installment is bigger than normal. If there's a reason, it would be that the PPI components that flow through to PCE (a more important inflation metric) are all elevated (sometimes they run counter to the PPI headline). If there's another reason, it's because bonds aren't just reacting to PPI but also doing the same oil "follow oil prices" routine.
Overnight Gains Erased by PPI/Oil. Fed on Deck
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was this morning's only big ticket econ data and calling it "big ticket" is a bit of a stretch. PPI often passes without a trace, but can occasionally get an obvious response even if it's not a huge response. Today's installment is bigger than normal. If there's a reason, it would be that the PPI components that flow through to PCE (a more important inflation metric) are all elevated (sometimes they run counter to the PPI headline). If there's another reason, it's because bonds aren't just reacting to PPI but also doing the same oil "follow oil prices" routine.
17th March, 26
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger Bonds did something they haven't done in almost 3 weeks today. They closed at stronger levels for the second consecutive day. The last time that happened was February 27th at the end of the impressive month-long rally. While today was stronger, it wasn't exactly impressive (or event that interesting). The most notable development was the fact that bonds rallied despite slightly higher oil prices. This is the opposite dynamic from certain moments last week where bonds underperformed a 1:1 correlation with oil. Econ Data / Events NY Fed
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger
Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger Bonds did something they haven't done in almost 3 weeks today. They closed at stronger levels for the second consecutive day. The last time that happened was February 27th at the end of the impressive month-long rally. While today was stronger, it wasn't exactly impressive (or event that interesting). The most notable development was the fact that bonds rallied despite slightly higher oil prices. This is the opposite dynamic from certain moments last week where bonds underperformed a 1:1 correlation with oil. Econ Data / Events NY Fed
17th March, 26
The Fed Isn't Doing Anything to Mortgage Rates on Wednesday
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates, but also a fairly decent one. The underlying bond market made modest gains even without meaningful cues from oil prices. Lately, oil price volatility has been the most visible motivation for bonds and, thus, interest rates. After cresting 6.40% last week, the MND 30yr fixed rate index is back below 6.30% today, albeit just barely (6.29% for top tier 30yr fixed rates at the average lender). Looking ahead, tomorrow afternoon brings the latest Fed announcement. The market has conclusively decided there will be no rate cut. Even if the opposite
The Fed Isn't Doing Anything to Mortgage Rates on Wednesday
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates, but also a fairly decent one. The underlying bond market made modest gains even without meaningful cues from oil prices. Lately, oil price volatility has been the most visible motivation for bonds and, thus, interest rates. After cresting 6.40% last week, the MND 30yr fixed rate index is back below 6.30% today, albeit just barely (6.29% for top tier 30yr fixed rates at the average lender). Looking ahead, tomorrow afternoon brings the latest Fed announcement. The market has conclusively decided there will be no rate cut. Even if the opposite