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6th November, 25
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing? Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend since Fed day. Viewed through another lens, Fed day caused an isolated lurch toward higher yields and then we were generally sideways until yesterday's econ data caused another lurch higher. The common thread in each scenario is that bonds had been unable to find a reason to rally in any meaningful way. Amid such scenarios, we wait for such rallies to restore balance to the near-term outlook. Via weak results in private label econ data, a sharp morning selling spree in stocks (and
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing? Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend since Fed day. Viewed through another lens, Fed day caused an isolated lurch toward higher yields and then we were generally sideways until yesterday's econ data caused another lurch higher. The common thread in each scenario is that bonds had been unable to find a reason to rally in any meaningful way. Amid such scenarios, we wait for such rallies to restore balance to the near-term outlook. Via weak results in private label econ data, a sharp morning selling spree in stocks (and
6th November, 25
Nice Little Recovery For Mortgage Rates
As of yesterday afternoon, mortgage rates were right in line with the highest levels in more than a month. The upward momentum was largely a product of 2 specific days: the October 29th Fed announcement and yesterday's duo of economic reports that suggested less cause for concern over the labor market and strength of the services sector. Now today, we have different economic data telling a different story. Were it not for the government shutdown, the market may have never placed nearly as much emphasis on today's data. In fact, today is the first time that many market participants have
Nice Little Recovery For Mortgage Rates
As of yesterday afternoon, mortgage rates were right in line with the highest levels in more than a month. The upward momentum was largely a product of 2 specific days: the October 29th Fed announcement and yesterday's duo of economic reports that suggested less cause for concern over the labor market and strength of the services sector. Now today, we have different economic data telling a different story. Were it not for the government shutdown, the market may have never placed nearly as much emphasis on today's data. In fact, today is the first time that many market participants have
6th November, 25
AI Processing, Borrower Experience and Targeting Tools; Labor Market is Being Pummeled
Frequent conference goers or traveling salespeople are obviously concerned about the Trump Administration cutting 10 percent of flights for a variety of reasons. 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration agents are working without pay. For anyone looking for a job through the Job Board, here’s a pro tip for a question in your next interview: “Where do you see yourself in five years?” Answer: “Celebrating the 5th anniversary in your lunchroom of you asking me that question.” Job news, good and bad, is in the forefront of economic and residential
AI Processing, Borrower Experience and Targeting Tools; Labor Market is Being Pummeled
Frequent conference goers or traveling salespeople are obviously concerned about the Trump Administration cutting 10 percent of flights for a variety of reasons. 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration agents are working without pay. For anyone looking for a job through the Job Board, here’s a pro tip for a question in your next interview: “Where do you see yourself in five years?” Answer: “Celebrating the 5th anniversary in your lunchroom of you asking me that question.” Job news, good and bad, is in the forefront of economic and residential
6th November, 25
New Data Sources Bring New Inspiration
The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One that you'll likely hear more about in the coming months is Revelio Labs, a company using data aggregation and modeling to synthesize it's own version of nonfarm payrolls. While it's far from an exact match, the trends are similar, and Revelio's data is less volatile (much like ADP always has been). All that to say, there's no great way to justify this morning's rally in bonds without the Revelio release at 8:30am ET, which showed a decline
New Data Sources Bring New Inspiration
The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One that you'll likely hear more about in the coming months is Revelio Labs, a company using data aggregation and modeling to synthesize it's own version of nonfarm payrolls. While it's far from an exact match, the trends are similar, and Revelio's data is less volatile (much like ADP always has been). All that to say, there's no great way to justify this morning's rally in bonds without the Revelio release at 8:30am ET, which showed a decline
5th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Near 2-Month Highs After Today's Econ Data
A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-scheduled economic reports due to the government shutdown. While this means rates must "fly blind" on many of the days that would normally coincide with these government economic reports, there are other days that still play host to top-tier non-government data. Today boasted not one--but two such reports. Unfortunately for rates, both reports were unfriendly. Rates tend to benefit from economic weakness. As such, when reports are stronger than
Mortgage Rates Near 2-Month Highs After Today's Econ Data
A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-scheduled economic reports due to the government shutdown. While this means rates must "fly blind" on many of the days that would normally coincide with these government economic reports, there are other days that still play host to top-tier non-government data. Today boasted not one--but two such reports. Unfortunately for rates, both reports were unfriendly. Rates tend to benefit from economic weakness. As such, when reports are stronger than
5th November, 25
Broker, Non-QM, Compliance, Workflow, AI, Tax Tools; ADP Jobs Data and Rates
“Did you hear about the Chinese guy who spoke out against the government? Exactly.” Hate the U.S. Government or love it, sometimes government and lender interaction is beneficial, sometimes not. The ongoing federal government shutdown not only has impacted citizen’s psychology, but has hit FHA and VA loan processing via reduced staff, creating endorsement delays of days to weeks. USDA loans remain completely halted for new guarantees, although it appears that IRS transcript processing, and other verification services needed for all loan types, is functioning. The NAR (National
Broker, Non-QM, Compliance, Workflow, AI, Tax Tools; ADP Jobs Data and Rates
“Did you hear about the Chinese guy who spoke out against the government? Exactly.” Hate the U.S. Government or love it, sometimes government and lender interaction is beneficial, sometimes not. The ongoing federal government shutdown not only has impacted citizen’s psychology, but has hit FHA and VA loan processing via reduced staff, creating endorsement delays of days to weeks. USDA loans remain completely halted for new guarantees, although it appears that IRS transcript processing, and other verification services needed for all loan types, is functioning. The NAR (National
5th November, 25
2 Key Reports, 2 Reasons to Sell Bonds
Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data. The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Services often falls on Wednesday, joining ADP to create a duo with a strong track record of market movement. In today's case, because of the government shutdown, it means we're getting a higher proportion of market-moving data inside a 2 hour window than any other day (or even entire week) could possibly offer. Unfortunately, neither report was bond-friendly. Thankfully though, ADP wasn't exceptionally unfriendly. Additionally,&
2 Key Reports, 2 Reasons to Sell Bonds
Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data. The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Services often falls on Wednesday, joining ADP to create a duo with a strong track record of market movement. In today's case, because of the government shutdown, it means we're getting a higher proportion of market-moving data inside a 2 hour window than any other day (or even entire week) could possibly offer. Unfortunately, neither report was bond-friendly. Thankfully though, ADP wasn't exceptionally unfriendly. Additionally,&
4th November, 25
Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data
Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data Bonds benefited from heavy stock selling late in the overnight session. This is not the typical pattern seen these days, but it's not uncommon to see some positive spillover into bonds when stock losses are sharp enough. In any event, it's not something to count on when it comes to tomorrow's motivations. For that, we actually have economic data for a change. In the absence of government agency data, if we had to pick 2 reports to carry the torch, they would be ADP employment and ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow brings us both releases and, thus, a
Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data
Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data Bonds benefited from heavy stock selling late in the overnight session. This is not the typical pattern seen these days, but it's not uncommon to see some positive spillover into bonds when stock losses are sharp enough. In any event, it's not something to count on when it comes to tomorrow's motivations. For that, we actually have economic data for a change. In the absence of government agency data, if we had to pick 2 reports to carry the torch, they would be ADP employment and ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow brings us both releases and, thus, a
4th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Near Recent Highs
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was technically 0.01% higher than yesterday, but that's the smallest possible detected move. It's just as fair to say rates held steady today. While it's always nice to avoid a more serious rate spike on any given day, by holding flat, rates are remaining in line with their highest levels in just over 3 weeks. The bonds that underlie mortgage rates improved slightly throughout the day, but not enough for most mortgage lenders to go to the trouble of adjusting their published rates. The implication is that rates have a bit of an
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Near Recent Highs
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was technically 0.01% higher than yesterday, but that's the smallest possible detected move. It's just as fair to say rates held steady today. While it's always nice to avoid a more serious rate spike on any given day, by holding flat, rates are remaining in line with their highest levels in just over 3 weeks. The bonds that underlie mortgage rates improved slightly throughout the day, but not enough for most mortgage lenders to go to the trouble of adjusting their published rates. The implication is that rates have a bit of an
4th November, 25
Correspondent and Wholesale News; CUs and Realtors, Borrower Engagement Tools; Regulatory Readiness
“Being a parent is like being a psychic who is always right but is always ignored.” Here in Austin, TX, whether it was the Texas Women Mortgage Bankers’ Fall Social with Faith Schwartz and Alanna McCargo last night or the TMBA’s Housing Summit speakers today, no one is ignoring anything. No lender can ignore the shutdown, and anyone who believes that residential lending and politics, at all levels, don’t overlap is mistaken: look at what is going on with FHA, VA, GNMA, IRS information, USDA, and flood insurance. A topic at this Summit as well as other conferences is mergers and
Correspondent and Wholesale News; CUs and Realtors, Borrower Engagement Tools; Regulatory Readiness
“Being a parent is like being a psychic who is always right but is always ignored.” Here in Austin, TX, whether it was the Texas Women Mortgage Bankers’ Fall Social with Faith Schwartz and Alanna McCargo last night or the TMBA’s Housing Summit speakers today, no one is ignoring anything. No lender can ignore the shutdown, and anyone who believes that residential lending and politics, at all levels, don’t overlap is mistaken: look at what is going on with FHA, VA, GNMA, IRS information, USDA, and flood insurance. A topic at this Summit as well as other conferences is mergers and