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5th June, 26
Tech Stack Mgt, Verification, DSCR, 2nd Products; In-Person Mortgage Events; What's Moving Rates?
Today we’re going to learn about the facts of life. Trivia-loving basketball facts’ fans know that this is the first time the NY Knicks have led in the finals since the night of OJ’s White Bronco car chase. Homeowner’s insurance has become the “you can’t avoid it and you can’t afford it” fact of life for some homeowners in some areas. Rate is selling yoga pants. The increase in credit union’s mortgage activities is a fact and unmistakable, and you can bet CUs will continue to press their “resi” lending advantages. Lastly, and it’s a fact that people in our biz enjoy
Tech Stack Mgt, Verification, DSCR, 2nd Products; In-Person Mortgage Events; What's Moving Rates?
Today we’re going to learn about the facts of life. Trivia-loving basketball facts’ fans know that this is the first time the NY Knicks have led in the finals since the night of OJ’s White Bronco car chase. Homeowner’s insurance has become the “you can’t avoid it and you can’t afford it” fact of life for some homeowners in some areas. Rate is selling yoga pants. The increase in credit union’s mortgage activities is a fact and unmistakable, and you can bet CUs will continue to press their “resi” lending advantages. Lastly, and it’s a fact that people in our biz enjoy
5th June, 26
Job Market Says "I'm Not Dead Yet." Bond Market Doesn't Love It
Buzz has been growing around the labor market for the past several months, but today's jobs report went the extra mile to make it official. The job market is officially re-accelerating. Actually, the better claim would be that the jobs market is simply attempting to level off after a very long post-covid normalization. Most of today's charts show that quite well. Payrolls surged to 172k vs an 85k forecast. The previous report was revised up to 179k from 115k. The unemployment rate held steady at a historically low 4.3% and dropped modestly on an unrounded basis. Volatility in the payroll
Job Market Says "I'm Not Dead Yet." Bond Market Doesn't Love It
Buzz has been growing around the labor market for the past several months, but today's jobs report went the extra mile to make it official. The job market is officially re-accelerating. Actually, the better claim would be that the jobs market is simply attempting to level off after a very long post-covid normalization. Most of today's charts show that quite well. Payrolls surged to 172k vs an 85k forecast. The previous report was revised up to 179k from 115k. The unemployment rate held steady at a historically low 4.3% and dropped modestly on an unrounded basis. Volatility in the payroll
4th June, 26
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage Slippage is a bit less severe than leakage. Neither of them will turn a green day red, but they both erode morning gains. Today's gains primarily followed a pre-market comment from Trump who said the US was in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war. Bonds hit their best levels shortly thereafter and then the slippage set in. The backtracking was more evident in Treasuries with the 10yr losing almost half of the day-over-day gains. MBS managed to hold firmer, and were still broadly in line with the middle of the AM range by 4pm.
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage Slippage is a bit less severe than leakage. Neither of them will turn a green day red, but they both erode morning gains. Today's gains primarily followed a pre-market comment from Trump who said the US was in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war. Bonds hit their best levels shortly thereafter and then the slippage set in. The backtracking was more evident in Treasuries with the 10yr losing almost half of the day-over-day gains. MBS managed to hold firmer, and were still broadly in line with the middle of the AM range by 4pm.
4th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Lower Today, But in a Narrow Range
After hitting long-term highs on May 19th, mortgage rates dropped somewhat quickly by May 26th. Ever since then, they've been moving back and forth in a very narrow range. Today's movement happened to be the good kind with the average lender cutting top-tier 30yr fixed rates by 0.03%. As always, keep in mind that mortgages are most commonly offered in 0.125% increments. When our daily rate index changes by only 0.03%, it's because we are also measuring the underlying costs associated with any given rate and extrapolating the relative impact on interest rates. To use a crude example, let's
Mortgage Rates Lower Today, But in a Narrow Range
After hitting long-term highs on May 19th, mortgage rates dropped somewhat quickly by May 26th. Ever since then, they've been moving back and forth in a very narrow range. Today's movement happened to be the good kind with the average lender cutting top-tier 30yr fixed rates by 0.03%. As always, keep in mind that mortgages are most commonly offered in 0.125% increments. When our daily rate index changes by only 0.03%, it's because we are also measuring the underlying costs associated with any given rate and extrapolating the relative impact on interest rates. To use a crude example, let's
4th June, 26
Non-QM, Credit, MERS, Realtor Lead Tools; Section 8 and RESPA Change? loanDepot Case Developments
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services There’s been plenty of chatter lately about lenders trying to rebuild realtor referral pipelines. One company may have found a different angle. Inside Real Estate (yes, the company that bought BoomTown) has quietly launched a new lead solution designed specifically for lenders focused on agent relationships. Consumers enter looking for both financing guidance and help finding a home, creating opportunities for lenders to engage early in the process and strengthen agent partnerships. Several participating lenders have reportedly received
Non-QM, Credit, MERS, Realtor Lead Tools; Section 8 and RESPA Change? loanDepot Case Developments
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services There’s been plenty of chatter lately about lenders trying to rebuild realtor referral pipelines. One company may have found a different angle. Inside Real Estate (yes, the company that bought BoomTown) has quietly launched a new lead solution designed specifically for lenders focused on agent relationships. Consumers enter looking for both financing guidance and help finding a home, creating opportunities for lenders to engage early in the process and strengthen agent partnerships. Several participating lenders have reportedly received
4th June, 26
Losses Erased After Another Peace Teaser
The following newswire hit about an hour before the open: TRUMP: US IN THE MIDDLE OF FINAL NEGOTIATIONS TO END IRAN WAR. Bond yields and oil prices had already fallen modestly up to that point, but more than doubled the overnight rally after that. Yields are thus starting the day roughly 4bps lower, perfectly erasing the entirety of Wednesday's losses. Jobless Claims had no impact at 8:30am ET. An hour earlier, Challenger Layoffs possibly moved the needle microscopically, but it's just as likely that the ongoing drop in oil prices did the trick. There's no other big ticket
Losses Erased After Another Peace Teaser
The following newswire hit about an hour before the open: TRUMP: US IN THE MIDDLE OF FINAL NEGOTIATIONS TO END IRAN WAR. Bond yields and oil prices had already fallen modestly up to that point, but more than doubled the overnight rally after that. Yields are thus starting the day roughly 4bps lower, perfectly erasing the entirety of Wednesday's losses. Jobless Claims had no impact at 8:30am ET. An hour earlier, Challenger Layoffs possibly moved the needle microscopically, but it's just as likely that the ongoing drop in oil prices did the trick. There's no other big ticket
3rd June, 26
Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility
Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility War headlines struck back in the overnight session. Specifically, Iran struck back against various U.S. and allied sites, allegedly in response to U.S. strikes on Iranian sites. Peace prospects take an obvious hit in response to these escalations and financial markets remain willing to react accordingly. Oil prices were already moving up to the highest levels in more than a week in the overnight session and that momentum peaked at 6am ET. Treasury yields followed and then stayed broadly sideways for the duration of the domestic session. In the bigger
Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility
Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility War headlines struck back in the overnight session. Specifically, Iran struck back against various U.S. and allied sites, allegedly in response to U.S. strikes on Iranian sites. Peace prospects take an obvious hit in response to these escalations and financial markets remain willing to react accordingly. Oil prices were already moving up to the highest levels in more than a week in the overnight session and that momentum peaked at 6am ET. Treasury yields followed and then stayed broadly sideways for the duration of the domestic session. In the bigger
3rd June, 26
Mortgage Rates Move Back Up With Oil Prices
Imagine being stuck at home watching TV for 3 months and only being able to stream one show. That's been the case for the bond market (which dictates interest rates) since the beginning of March. The show in question involves watching war-related headlines and reacting in roughly the same manner as oil prices. Today's episode was more interesting than yesterday's. Key details included reports of Iranian missile strikes on various U.S. and allied targets. In general, rates have improved on news that increases the odds of a peace deal. Unsurprisingly, today's headlines (technically, yesterday
Mortgage Rates Move Back Up With Oil Prices
Imagine being stuck at home watching TV for 3 months and only being able to stream one show. That's been the case for the bond market (which dictates interest rates) since the beginning of March. The show in question involves watching war-related headlines and reacting in roughly the same manner as oil prices. Today's episode was more interesting than yesterday's. Key details included reports of Iranian missile strikes on various U.S. and allied targets. In general, rates have improved on news that increases the odds of a peace deal. Unsurprisingly, today's headlines (technically, yesterday
3rd June, 26
Secondary Execution, Broker Contest, Commercial Products; Webinars; Bill Pulte's Job Move?
The latest and greatest with FHFA Director Bill Pulte (happy 38th birthday last week!) is that President Trump tapped him (more below), to be the acting director of national intelligence. At this point he is still running Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The President cited Pulte’s work at the FHFA and his role as chair of Fannie & Freddie, saying Pulte “has deep experience managing the most sensitive matters in America, the safety and soundness of the Markets, and over 10 trillion dollars at Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, a substantial increase from where it was just 12 months ago.” For now,
Secondary Execution, Broker Contest, Commercial Products; Webinars; Bill Pulte's Job Move?
The latest and greatest with FHFA Director Bill Pulte (happy 38th birthday last week!) is that President Trump tapped him (more below), to be the acting director of national intelligence. At this point he is still running Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The President cited Pulte’s work at the FHFA and his role as chair of Fannie & Freddie, saying Pulte “has deep experience managing the most sensitive matters in America, the safety and soundness of the Markets, and over 10 trillion dollars at Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, a substantial increase from where it was just 12 months ago.” For now,
3rd June, 26
Weaker Start on Renewed Bombing, But Still In The Range
Iran launched missiles at several U.S. allies yesterday afternoon and oil prices responded accordingly with a move back up to May 22nd levels. Treasury yields followed, but have generally been staying lower than the oil price correlation would suggest. 10yr yields continue holding a narrow range between 4.43 and 4.52. They're roughly 3.5bps higher to start the day at 4.485 and MBS are down a quarter point. ADP employment came out almost right on the screws and garnered no notable bond market response. At 10am ET, we'll get ISM Services, which is one of this week's few reports that might have
Weaker Start on Renewed Bombing, But Still In The Range
Iran launched missiles at several U.S. allies yesterday afternoon and oil prices responded accordingly with a move back up to May 22nd levels. Treasury yields followed, but have generally been staying lower than the oil price correlation would suggest. 10yr yields continue holding a narrow range between 4.43 and 4.52. They're roughly 3.5bps higher to start the day at 4.485 and MBS are down a quarter point. ADP employment came out almost right on the screws and garnered no notable bond market response. At 10am ET, we'll get ISM Services, which is one of this week's few reports that might have