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11th June, 26
Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement
Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement This morning's commentary noted Trump comments regarding planned air strikes for today. Bonds reacted, but maintained some skepticism. That proved to be a good instinct. At roughly 1:30pm, Trump said the air strikes were cancelled and that all parties had agreed on a deal, and that a time/place for signing would be announced shortly. There wasn't as much push back against those claims by foreign sources as we've often seen in response to similar claims of deals being reached. Stocks surged. Oil plummeted. 10yr yields dropped another
Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement
Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement This morning's commentary noted Trump comments regarding planned air strikes for today. Bonds reacted, but maintained some skepticism. That proved to be a good instinct. At roughly 1:30pm, Trump said the air strikes were cancelled and that all parties had agreed on a deal, and that a time/place for signing would be announced shortly. There wasn't as much push back against those claims by foreign sources as we've often seen in response to similar claims of deals being reached. Stocks surged. Oil plummeted. 10yr yields dropped another
11th June, 26
Rates Drop Sharply to One Week Lows
Mortgage rates began the day in uneventful fashion with the average lender right in line with yesterday's latest levels. Things might have gotten off to a slightly better start, but higher inflation in this morning's econ data and discouraging war-related headlines put upward pressure on bond yields (yields and rates are technically the same thing and they move in the same direction). The bulk of the day remained uneventful but that changed abruptly at 1:30pm when news circulated that Trump cancelled today's planned air strikes and said that both sides had approved final details of a permanent
Rates Drop Sharply to One Week Lows
Mortgage rates began the day in uneventful fashion with the average lender right in line with yesterday's latest levels. Things might have gotten off to a slightly better start, but higher inflation in this morning's econ data and discouraging war-related headlines put upward pressure on bond yields (yields and rates are technically the same thing and they move in the same direction). The bulk of the day remained uneventful but that changed abruptly at 1:30pm when news circulated that Trump cancelled today's planned air strikes and said that both sides had approved final details of a permanent
11th June, 26
Hedging, HOA Lien Monitoring, Reverse Products; Webcasts; CFPB's Humility Pledge
Broker and Lender Products, Software, and Services On the PGA Tour, the player who enters Sunday’s final round in first place only goes on to win about one-third of the time. Getting close and finishing the job are two different things. Optimal Blue's May Market Advantage report found a similar dynamic in mortgage pipelines: Purchase loans accounted for more than 81 percent of total lock volume, while refinance share fell to its lowest level since June 2025. But the more notable shift came after borrowers locked. Purchase pull-through fell 539 bps month over month, while refinance pull-
Hedging, HOA Lien Monitoring, Reverse Products; Webcasts; CFPB's Humility Pledge
Broker and Lender Products, Software, and Services On the PGA Tour, the player who enters Sunday’s final round in first place only goes on to win about one-third of the time. Getting close and finishing the job are two different things. Optimal Blue's May Market Advantage report found a similar dynamic in mortgage pipelines: Purchase loans accounted for more than 81 percent of total lock volume, while refinance share fell to its lowest level since June 2025. But the more notable shift came after borrowers locked. Purchase pull-through fell 539 bps month over month, while refinance pull-
11th June, 26
Some Volatility and Resilience After Trump Comments and Data
Bonds were reasonably stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields down roughly 4bps from 4.56 to 4.52. About 8 minutes before the PPI data came out, a series of Trump comments on the Iran war sent oil prices and bond yields higher (new strikes and intent to take Kharg Island). PPI added to the pressure with the monthly headline hitting 1.1% vs 0.7% forecast. The fact that core PPI came in at 0.4% vs 0.7% last month tells us that energy prices are the main driver (as does the text of the report itself, oddly enough). In fact, both energy and goods inflation are running higher than
Some Volatility and Resilience After Trump Comments and Data
Bonds were reasonably stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields down roughly 4bps from 4.56 to 4.52. About 8 minutes before the PPI data came out, a series of Trump comments on the Iran war sent oil prices and bond yields higher (new strikes and intent to take Kharg Island). PPI added to the pressure with the monthly headline hitting 1.1% vs 0.7% forecast. The fact that core PPI came in at 0.4% vs 0.7% last month tells us that energy prices are the main driver (as does the text of the report itself, oddly enough). In fact, both energy and goods inflation are running higher than
10th June, 26
War Headlines Cause Mid-Day Reversal
War Headlines Cause Mid-Day Reversal Bonds started the day inconsequentially weaker and picked up some gains after CPI came in a hair lower than expected at the core level. Just before noon, yields began rising and ultimately hit the 3pm close up a few bps versus yesterday. MBS were down about an eighth of a point, but it wasn't enough for the average lender to bother with a reprice. A forensic audit of the afternoon weakness leaves only one explanation: war headlines. Specifically, Trump said the U.S. would be "attacking hard again today." The market may increasingly take these headlines with
War Headlines Cause Mid-Day Reversal
War Headlines Cause Mid-Day Reversal Bonds started the day inconsequentially weaker and picked up some gains after CPI came in a hair lower than expected at the core level. Just before noon, yields began rising and ultimately hit the 3pm close up a few bps versus yesterday. MBS were down about an eighth of a point, but it wasn't enough for the average lender to bother with a reprice. A forensic audit of the afternoon weakness leaves only one explanation: war headlines. Specifically, Trump said the U.S. would be "attacking hard again today." The market may increasingly take these headlines with
10th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Remain Almost Perfectly Flat
There's been remarkably little change in mortgage rates so far this week. Monday saw a modest increase vs Friday, but since then, there's been essentially no change. Today's rates were technically 0.01% lower than yesterday's, but many lenders were perfectly unchanged. This is an acceptable result given the presence of high stakes economic data and ongoing war related headlines. The data in question was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), an inflation report that occasionally causes significant volatility for rates. Today's CPI (for the month of May) came in right in line with expectations, and
Mortgage Rates Remain Almost Perfectly Flat
There's been remarkably little change in mortgage rates so far this week. Monday saw a modest increase vs Friday, but since then, there's been essentially no change. Today's rates were technically 0.01% lower than yesterday's, but many lenders were perfectly unchanged. This is an acceptable result given the presence of high stakes economic data and ongoing war related headlines. The data in question was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), an inflation report that occasionally causes significant volatility for rates. Today's CPI (for the month of May) came in right in line with expectations, and
10th June, 26
Credit, Verification, Database, Retention, Broker Tools; FTC Penalty; Cost of Living Increases
“Rob, everyone knows that the GSEs (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) don’t use credit scores for loan approval. They use it for pricing. The GSEs have created their own scoring system and it’s just the investors that utilize the score.” True dat. It takes a while to test the impact of credit scores on defaults, delinquencies, pricing, and prepayment speeds, and staff in our biz interested in any Agency pilot programs about credit are encouraged to reach out to their F or F representatives. People seem to like lists and rankings. ATTOM released its ResiScore, an AI-powered neighborhood
Credit, Verification, Database, Retention, Broker Tools; FTC Penalty; Cost of Living Increases
“Rob, everyone knows that the GSEs (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) don’t use credit scores for loan approval. They use it for pricing. The GSEs have created their own scoring system and it’s just the investors that utilize the score.” True dat. It takes a while to test the impact of credit scores on defaults, delinquencies, pricing, and prepayment speeds, and staff in our biz interested in any Agency pilot programs about credit are encouraged to reach out to their F or F representatives. People seem to like lists and rankings. ATTOM released its ResiScore, an AI-powered neighborhood
10th June, 26
Slightly Stronger After Ho-Hum CPI
Most understand this, but some forget: CPI numbers on econ calendars are not prices. They're the change in prices. We bring that up in case anyone thinks today's core monthly CPI of 0.2 means that prices are lower than last month when the core was 0.4. While it's a decent monthly number and lower than the expected 0.3, it's also 2.4% if repeated for 12 months (still above the 2.0% target). Plus, we often forget that the 2.0% inflation target is for headline CPI--not core--and that is running at 4.2% y/y presently. Thankfully, forecasters were right on target with headline expectations, so
Slightly Stronger After Ho-Hum CPI
Most understand this, but some forget: CPI numbers on econ calendars are not prices. They're the change in prices. We bring that up in case anyone thinks today's core monthly CPI of 0.2 means that prices are lower than last month when the core was 0.4. While it's a decent monthly number and lower than the expected 0.3, it's also 2.4% if repeated for 12 months (still above the 2.0% target). Plus, we often forget that the 2.0% inflation target is for headline CPI--not core--and that is running at 4.2% y/y presently. Thankfully, forecasters were right on target with headline expectations, so
9th June, 26
Bonds End at Strongest Levels
Bonds End at Strongest Levels Unlike yesterday, which saw an uneventful open give way to intraday weakness, today's momentum was mostly friendly. Bonds avoided panicking in the morning hours. Mid-day war-related headlines made for some quick 2-way trading in the noon hour, but yields never went any higher than the AM highs. After sorting out that volatility, steady gain brought yields to the lowest levels of the day in the final hour of trading. For context, this is right on the highest edge of the short-term range seen in the week and a half leading up to the jobs report. Econ Data /
Bonds End at Strongest Levels
Bonds End at Strongest Levels Unlike yesterday, which saw an uneventful open give way to intraday weakness, today's momentum was mostly friendly. Bonds avoided panicking in the morning hours. Mid-day war-related headlines made for some quick 2-way trading in the noon hour, but yields never went any higher than the AM highs. After sorting out that volatility, steady gain brought yields to the lowest levels of the day in the final hour of trading. For context, this is right on the highest edge of the short-term range seen in the week and a half leading up to the jobs report. Econ Data /
9th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Steady
Mortgage rates put an end to the most recent spike that followed last Friday's jobs report. Most of the upward movement happened on Friday, but yesterday offered a modest aftershock. Those two days brought the top tier 30yr fixed rate up to 6.68 from 6.58 on Thursday. Today's average remained perfectly flat at 6.68%. War-related headlines had periodic impacts on both oil prices and the bond/rate market. The scariest moment of the day for rates followed a headline that Iran had shot down a U.S. helicopter. Trump posted that the U.S. must respond to that attack, but subsequent comments minimized
Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Steady
Mortgage rates put an end to the most recent spike that followed last Friday's jobs report. Most of the upward movement happened on Friday, but yesterday offered a modest aftershock. Those two days brought the top tier 30yr fixed rate up to 6.68 from 6.58 on Thursday. Today's average remained perfectly flat at 6.68%. War-related headlines had periodic impacts on both oil prices and the bond/rate market. The scariest moment of the day for rates followed a headline that Iran had shot down a U.S. helicopter. Trump posted that the U.S. must respond to that attack, but subsequent comments minimized