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16th June, 26
Stronger Overnight as Europe Trades Peace
European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets. Why bring this up? There was a fairly obvious shift toward lower oil prices and bond yields overnight, and the most obvious suspect was simply the opening bell for European markets. While obvious, it wasn't too big. 10yr yields are hovering in a range that's 2-3bps lower than yesterday, and still above the lows seen at the beginning of the month.
Stronger Overnight as Europe Trades Peace
European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets. Why bring this up? There was a fairly obvious shift toward lower oil prices and bond yields overnight, and the most obvious suspect was simply the opening bell for European markets. While obvious, it wasn't too big. 10yr yields are hovering in a range that's 2-3bps lower than yesterday, and still above the lows seen at the beginning of the month.
16th June, 26
AI Products; Fair Lending, Deportations, and Service Animals; AI Governance; Pennymac's AI Path
Sure, we have a Fed meeting, but the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. Will they all head off on vacation after this week? Perhaps. Given the increase in the “out of office” replies I am seeing, and children in airports, summer vacation is in full swing. (Apparently families will change their spending habits to accommodate the run up in fuel costs; my local gas station won’t let me go above $100 per visit on my credit card.) In an extreme example to time management, the U.S. Congress has only 16 legislative days left on its agenda until the election; the rest of the time is vacation and
AI Products; Fair Lending, Deportations, and Service Animals; AI Governance; Pennymac's AI Path
Sure, we have a Fed meeting, but the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. Will they all head off on vacation after this week? Perhaps. Given the increase in the “out of office” replies I am seeing, and children in airports, summer vacation is in full swing. (Apparently families will change their spending habits to accommodate the run up in fuel costs; my local gas station won’t let me go above $100 per visit on my credit card.) In an extreme example to time management, the U.S. Congress has only 16 legislative days left on its agenda until the election; the rest of the time is vacation and
15th June, 26
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger.
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger. With both sides signing the peace memo, the market was immediately willing to react in the overnight session, but that reaction fell short of what we might expect for an official peace deal. This is a bond market problem more than an Iran war problem. Case in point, oil prices stayed flat after their big overnight drop. Stocks added to strong overnight gains. Bonds were the odd man out. Part of the reason is that bonds did more than stocks to get in position for this eventuality last week. As of today, both the S&P and 10yr are
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger.
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger. With both sides signing the peace memo, the market was immediately willing to react in the overnight session, but that reaction fell short of what we might expect for an official peace deal. This is a bond market problem more than an Iran war problem. Case in point, oil prices stayed flat after their big overnight drop. Stocks added to strong overnight gains. Bonds were the odd man out. Part of the reason is that bonds did more than stocks to get in position for this eventuality last week. As of today, both the S&P and 10yr are
15th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Hit One-Month Lows
The bad news: mortgage rates didn't fall quite as much as one might have expected following the confirmation of the Iran peace deal. The good news: rates had already begun pricing in the peace deal last Thursday and it only took a modest improvement for the average lender to match the lowest level in exactly one month. For context, today's MND rate index of 6.56% is the same as the most recent low seen on May 29th. Before that, you'd have to go back to 5/15 to see anything lower. For even more context, prior to 5/15, today's rates would have been the 3rd highest since August 1st, 2025.&
Mortgage Rates Hit One-Month Lows
The bad news: mortgage rates didn't fall quite as much as one might have expected following the confirmation of the Iran peace deal. The good news: rates had already begun pricing in the peace deal last Thursday and it only took a modest improvement for the average lender to match the lowest level in exactly one month. For context, today's MND rate index of 6.56% is the same as the most recent low seen on May 29th. Before that, you'd have to go back to 5/15 to see anything lower. For even more context, prior to 5/15, today's rates would have been the 3rd highest since August 1st, 2025.&
15th June, 26
Verification, MGIC Survey, Rocket Contest, Credit Reporting Tools; Agency Program Changes
This morning, I head to Honolulu for the MBA Hawai’i annual conference. The “Pineapple State” is known for banks and credit unions dominating residential lending. Robber Willie Sutton is famously quoted as saying, "I rob banks because that's where the money is." Large, unexpected moves in money make the headlines, and Saturday’s Commentary highlighted the collapse of a condominium property management company. Another headline is making the rounds where $17 million in escrow funds disappeared overnight: a Palm Beach law firm sued a bank over a cyber-attack. Ginnie Mae has gained a
Verification, MGIC Survey, Rocket Contest, Credit Reporting Tools; Agency Program Changes
This morning, I head to Honolulu for the MBA Hawai’i annual conference. The “Pineapple State” is known for banks and credit unions dominating residential lending. Robber Willie Sutton is famously quoted as saying, "I rob banks because that's where the money is." Large, unexpected moves in money make the headlines, and Saturday’s Commentary highlighted the collapse of a condominium property management company. Another headline is making the rounds where $17 million in escrow funds disappeared overnight: a Palm Beach law firm sued a bank over a cyber-attack. Ginnie Mae has gained a
15th June, 26
Near Best Levels in a Month as Peace Deal Materializes
Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for Friday. That fact, along with comments on a "done deal" from both sides, helped bonds rally sharply in overnight trading. 10yr yields dropped roughly 6bps and have corrected gradually since then. Yields remain nearly 4bps lower and MBS are starting out nearly a quarter point higher.
Near Best Levels in a Month as Peace Deal Materializes
Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for Friday. That fact, along with comments on a "done deal" from both sides, helped bonds rally sharply in overnight trading. 10yr yields dropped roughly 6bps and have corrected gradually since then. Yields remain nearly 4bps lower and MBS are starting out nearly a quarter point higher.
12th June, 26
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the notion that a preliminary peace deal was near the finish line this morning. This resulted in modest upward pressure on yields for the first several hours of the day. Then just before 11am, Iran's foreign minister said the media shouldn't speculate and that the deal has "never been closer." Trump subsequently reposted that news. This sent oil prices back toward the day's lows and helped bonds recover most the ground lost earlier this morning. Volatility was minimal in the bigger picture. We'd
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the notion that a preliminary peace deal was near the finish line this morning. This resulted in modest upward pressure on yields for the first several hours of the day. Then just before 11am, Iran's foreign minister said the media shouldn't speculate and that the deal has "never been closer." Trump subsequently reposted that news. This sent oil prices back toward the day's lows and helped bonds recover most the ground lost earlier this morning. Volatility was minimal in the bigger picture. We'd
12th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Near Lowest Levels in Weeks
Some national headlines are pointing out that mortgage rates are higher this week. Those are based on weekly survey data which can often be stale compared to daily rate movement. Actual average rates are now in line with last Thursday's levels of 6.58% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. That's just 0.02% higher than May 29th levels. You'd have to go back another 2 weeks to May 14th to see anything lower. What's the catch? It's pretty simple. While we may be near the low end of the 4 week range, that range lies at the highs of 10 month range. It's also reasonably narrow, running from 6.58 to 6.
Mortgage Rates Near Lowest Levels in Weeks
Some national headlines are pointing out that mortgage rates are higher this week. Those are based on weekly survey data which can often be stale compared to daily rate movement. Actual average rates are now in line with last Thursday's levels of 6.58% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. That's just 0.02% higher than May 29th levels. You'd have to go back another 2 weeks to May 14th to see anything lower. What's the catch? It's pretty simple. While we may be near the low end of the 4 week range, that range lies at the highs of 10 month range. It's also reasonably narrow, running from 6.58 to 6.
12th June, 26
Modest Bounce in Refi Demand Despite Rate Volatility
Mortgage applications bounced higher last week after the holiday-shortened period, though the increase largely reflected a normalization in activity rather than a meaningful improvement in underlying demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 10.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 5. The gain was led by refinance activity, which rose 15% from the previous week. Refinance demand was also 20% higher than the same period one year ago, showing that activity remains well ahead of last year’s pace despite continued rate
Modest Bounce in Refi Demand Despite Rate Volatility
Mortgage applications bounced higher last week after the holiday-shortened period, though the increase largely reflected a normalization in activity rather than a meaningful improvement in underlying demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 10.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 5. The gain was led by refinance activity, which rose 15% from the previous week. Refinance demand was also 20% higher than the same period one year ago, showing that activity remains well ahead of last year’s pace despite continued rate
12th June, 26
Existing-Home Sales Reach Five-Month High as Affordability Improves
Existing-home sales picked up in May, rising to their highest level since December as improving affordability and steady household income gains continued to support demand. Sales increased 3.2% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million , and were also 3.2% higher than a year ago. “More Americans are on the move,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, noting that sales reached their strongest pace since December. He said improving affordability is helping drive the momentum, adding that mortgage rates remain below last year’s level and are roughly in line with the
Existing-Home Sales Reach Five-Month High as Affordability Improves
Existing-home sales picked up in May, rising to their highest level since December as improving affordability and steady household income gains continued to support demand. Sales increased 3.2% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million , and were also 3.2% higher than a year ago. “More Americans are on the move,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, noting that sales reached their strongest pace since December. He said improving affordability is helping drive the momentum, adding that mortgage rates remain below last year’s level and are roughly in line with the