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19th February, 26
Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data
Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data Bonds spent the past 2 days pushing back toward slightly higher yields after the 10yr nearly hit 4.0% in Tuesday's overnight session. While there was probably some technical resistance at work, Thursday suggests it wasn't a lasting, thematic shift. In other words, rather than remain committed to an ongoing push back toward higher levels, yields were flat to slightly lower. Perhaps this is as simple as 10yr yields hitting the 4.10 mark this morning and traders playing a narrow 4.0-4.10 range until econ data makes a breakout suggestion. On that
Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data
Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data Bonds spent the past 2 days pushing back toward slightly higher yields after the 10yr nearly hit 4.0% in Tuesday's overnight session. While there was probably some technical resistance at work, Thursday suggests it wasn't a lasting, thematic shift. In other words, rather than remain committed to an ongoing push back toward higher levels, yields were flat to slightly lower. Perhaps this is as simple as 10yr yields hitting the 4.10 mark this morning and traders playing a narrow 4.0-4.10 range until econ data makes a breakout suggestion. On that
19th February, 26
Mortgage Rates Hold Flat on Thursday Despite Lower Weekly Average
For the average lender, top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday. This keeps them right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years. That said, if we're splitting hairs, better rates were available 4 days in the past month and a half (Jan 9, Jan 12, Feb 13, Feb 17). So why is it that there are news headlines today claiming that rates hit their lowest levels in more than 3 years? Simply put, those stories are based on weekly survey data from Freddie Mac. Freddie isn't technically wrong, but you have to understand their methodology. Freddie's
Mortgage Rates Hold Flat on Thursday Despite Lower Weekly Average
For the average lender, top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday. This keeps them right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years. That said, if we're splitting hairs, better rates were available 4 days in the past month and a half (Jan 9, Jan 12, Feb 13, Feb 17). So why is it that there are news headlines today claiming that rates hit their lowest levels in more than 3 years? Simply put, those stories are based on weekly survey data from Freddie Mac. Freddie isn't technically wrong, but you have to understand their methodology. Freddie's
19th February, 26
Prudent AI's Income, Correspondent, LOS Tools; The Fed's Bank Mortgage Proposal; STRATMOR on LOs; Elliot Eisenberg Interview
It’s hard to believe that the COVID pandemic was six years ago with its increase in deaths. For our biz, we switched to “work from home,” among other changes. Along those lines, I received this note: “Rob, are you hearing about a concern among lenders about the liquidity of the non-QM sector? As in a repeat of March 2020 when many non-QM lenders suspended their programs due to volatile market conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, hurting the ability to submit, underwrite, lock, or fund non-QM loans?” Personally, I don’t foresee that, but liquidity should always be discussion
Prudent AI's Income, Correspondent, LOS Tools; The Fed's Bank Mortgage Proposal; STRATMOR on LOs; Elliot Eisenberg Interview
It’s hard to believe that the COVID pandemic was six years ago with its increase in deaths. For our biz, we switched to “work from home,” among other changes. Along those lines, I received this note: “Rob, are you hearing about a concern among lenders about the liquidity of the non-QM sector? As in a repeat of March 2020 when many non-QM lenders suspended their programs due to volatile market conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, hurting the ability to submit, underwrite, lock, or fund non-QM loans?” Personally, I don’t foresee that, but liquidity should always be discussion
19th February, 26
Accidental Clairvoyance (Not Really...)
Yesterday's end-of-day recap bore the title "Half-Hearted Correction Continues." It turns out that should have been the title for this morning's commentary as it's a better description of this morning's trading (yesterday, we actually had a few fundamentals to justify the weakness). In today's case, bonds are weaker "just because." Jobless Claims data (206k vs 225k f'cast) didn't help though--especially considering a higher claims reading helped kick off the big rally 2 weeks ago. Bonds seem more interested in trading technicals at the moment based on the very linear selling so far this week.&
Accidental Clairvoyance (Not Really...)
Yesterday's end-of-day recap bore the title "Half-Hearted Correction Continues." It turns out that should have been the title for this morning's commentary as it's a better description of this morning's trading (yesterday, we actually had a few fundamentals to justify the weakness). In today's case, bonds are weaker "just because." Jobless Claims data (206k vs 225k f'cast) didn't help though--especially considering a higher claims reading helped kick off the big rally 2 weeks ago. Bonds seem more interested in trading technicals at the moment based on the very linear selling so far this week.&
18th February, 26
Half-Hearted Correction Continues
Half-Hearted Correction Continues Don't call it a correction. Yields may have rallied 30bps in just over a week and apparently bounced almost perfectly at 4% (10yr), but they haven't exactly done much over the past 2 days. It's just as fair to say things are "sideways and waiting for guidance," but the cautious approach is to respect the almost-too-obvious technical patterns in play since July. Specifically, bonds have rallied 25-30bps and then consolidated toward slightly higher levels on multiple occasions. This could be the beginning of another similar pattern, but anything is
Half-Hearted Correction Continues
Half-Hearted Correction Continues Don't call it a correction. Yields may have rallied 30bps in just over a week and apparently bounced almost perfectly at 4% (10yr), but they haven't exactly done much over the past 2 days. It's just as fair to say things are "sideways and waiting for guidance," but the cautious approach is to respect the almost-too-obvious technical patterns in play since July. Specifically, bonds have rallied 25-30bps and then consolidated toward slightly higher levels on multiple occasions. This could be the beginning of another similar pattern, but anything is
18th February, 26
Residential Construction Finds Footing in December
What goes down must come up? Definitely not always the case, but true this time for residential construction numbers. The Census Bureau’s latest report showed a rebound in December, with both housing starts and building permits moving higher after softer readings in prior months. Privately owned housing starts rose 6.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.404 million , up from November’s revised 1.322 million pace. Despite the monthly gain, starts were 7.3% lower than December 2024 levels. Single-family starts increased 4.1% to 981k, while multifamily starts (buildings with five
Residential Construction Finds Footing in December
What goes down must come up? Definitely not always the case, but true this time for residential construction numbers. The Census Bureau’s latest report showed a rebound in December, with both housing starts and building permits moving higher after softer readings in prior months. Privately owned housing starts rose 6.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.404 million , up from November’s revised 1.322 million pace. Despite the monthly gain, starts were 7.3% lower than December 2024 levels. Single-family starts increased 4.1% to 981k, while multifamily starts (buildings with five
18th February, 26
Higher Refi Demand Buoys Mortgage Apps as Rates Hit Lows
Mortgage application activity picked up last week with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reporting an increase of 2.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending February 13. Refi applications were in the driver's seat, and although it was hardly a "jump", the Refinance Index did increase 7% from the previous week and was 132% higher than the same week one year ago. marking the strongest week for refinance activity since mid-January. This also keeps refi demand in the highest range seen since early 2022. Purchase demand moved in the opposite direction, falling 3% versus the
Higher Refi Demand Buoys Mortgage Apps as Rates Hit Lows
Mortgage application activity picked up last week with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reporting an increase of 2.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending February 13. Refi applications were in the driver's seat, and although it was hardly a "jump", the Refinance Index did increase 7% from the previous week and was 132% higher than the same week one year ago. marking the strongest week for refinance activity since mid-January. This also keeps refi demand in the highest range seen since early 2022. Purchase demand moved in the opposite direction, falling 3% versus the
18th February, 26
Builder Confidence Remains Subdued
Builder confidence fell for the second straight month in February according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Affordability pressures and elevated construction costs continued to hamper already gloomy sentiment. While the move was modest in outright terms (just one point lower than before), it reinforces the broader malaise seen over the past several years. The underlying components were mixed but leaned negative. The index measuring current sales conditions held steady at 41 , while the gauge tracking prospective buyer traffic
Builder Confidence Remains Subdued
Builder confidence fell for the second straight month in February according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Affordability pressures and elevated construction costs continued to hamper already gloomy sentiment. While the move was modest in outright terms (just one point lower than before), it reinforces the broader malaise seen over the past several years. The underlying components were mixed but leaned negative. The index measuring current sales conditions held steady at 41 , while the gauge tracking prospective buyer traffic
18th February, 26
Mortgage Rates Tick Microscopically Higher
Mortgage rates at the average lender moved up by 0.01% today--the smallest increment measured by the MND daily rate index. This means that most borrowers won't see a meaningful different in today's rates vs yesterday's. That's welcome news considering yesterday's rates were tied for the second best day in more than 3 years. In the bigger picture, the absence of improvement over the past 2 days may suggest that recent bull run in rates is pausing for reflection, or at least until and unless certain economic reports justify renewed momentum. On that note, this week's nearest examples of such
Mortgage Rates Tick Microscopically Higher
Mortgage rates at the average lender moved up by 0.01% today--the smallest increment measured by the MND daily rate index. This means that most borrowers won't see a meaningful different in today's rates vs yesterday's. That's welcome news considering yesterday's rates were tied for the second best day in more than 3 years. In the bigger picture, the absence of improvement over the past 2 days may suggest that recent bull run in rates is pausing for reflection, or at least until and unless certain economic reports justify renewed momentum. On that note, this week's nearest examples of such
18th February, 26
LO Centered Marketing, Credit Score Products; Company-Sponsored Events; Faith Schwartz Interview
On today’s Mortgage Matters live interview (at 1PM ET; feel free to ask questions) Faith Schwartz, who has an incredible pedigree, draws upon her decades of housing finance and policy experience to discuss crisis leadership lessons, regulatory evolution, and what today’s lenders should be watching as the market recalibrates. One topic could very well be the FHFA rolling back Fair Housing Rules: The Federal agency finalized repeal of 2024 oversight requirements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, effective March 9. Yes, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has finalized a rule repealing
LO Centered Marketing, Credit Score Products; Company-Sponsored Events; Faith Schwartz Interview
On today’s Mortgage Matters live interview (at 1PM ET; feel free to ask questions) Faith Schwartz, who has an incredible pedigree, draws upon her decades of housing finance and policy experience to discuss crisis leadership lessons, regulatory evolution, and what today’s lenders should be watching as the market recalibrates. One topic could very well be the FHFA rolling back Fair Housing Rules: The Federal agency finalized repeal of 2024 oversight requirements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, effective March 9. Yes, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has finalized a rule repealing