Latest news
13th January, 26
CPI Helped Bonds Avoid Losing Ground
CPI Helped Bonds Avoid Losing Ground Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory and managed to flip into slightly stronger territory after the CPI data. Core monthly CPI printed at 0.2, but was rounded down from 0.24. In other words, it wasn't as big of a beat as the "0.2 vs 0.3" result suggested. The notion of inflation being "lower but still elevated" contributed to the tepid response. As for MBS, they were in positive territory all day even though charts made them look weaker due to monthly settlement. Wednesday morning brings November's retail sales data and Producer Price
CPI Helped Bonds Avoid Losing Ground
CPI Helped Bonds Avoid Losing Ground Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory and managed to flip into slightly stronger territory after the CPI data. Core monthly CPI printed at 0.2, but was rounded down from 0.24. In other words, it wasn't as big of a beat as the "0.2 vs 0.3" result suggested. The notion of inflation being "lower but still elevated" contributed to the tepid response. As for MBS, they were in positive territory all day even though charts made them look weaker due to monthly settlement. Wednesday morning brings November's retail sales data and Producer Price
13th January, 26
Mortgage Rates Now Solidly Back Above 6%
According to our chart of MND's mortgage rate index, 30yr fixed rates bottomed at 6.01% yesterday, but that's because the chart logs the day's latest entry. On Friday, until late in the day, the chart showed a rate of 5.99%. It was only after several lenders raised rates in the afternoon that the index moved up to 6.06%. Today's rates ended up just a hair higher than that at 6.07%. Most of the underlying market weakness that accounts for today's jump occurred yesterday afternoon. Lenders who raised rates yesterday afternoon offered roughly comparable rates this morning. Things
Mortgage Rates Now Solidly Back Above 6%
According to our chart of MND's mortgage rate index, 30yr fixed rates bottomed at 6.01% yesterday, but that's because the chart logs the day's latest entry. On Friday, until late in the day, the chart showed a rate of 5.99%. It was only after several lenders raised rates in the afternoon that the index moved up to 6.06%. Today's rates ended up just a hair higher than that at 6.07%. Most of the underlying market weakness that accounts for today's jump occurred yesterday afternoon. Lenders who raised rates yesterday afternoon offered roughly comparable rates this morning. Things
13th January, 26
Broker, Jumbo, Verification, Climate Risk Products; CFPB Requests Money, Reverse Referral Opinion; CPI Data
Today’s Capital Markets Wrap (3PM ET) will cover how mortgage rates may be impacted by the lack of a traditional flight to quality despite rising international unrest, alongside proposed limits on institutional SFR purchases, rate sheet changes, recent presidential commentary on GSE bond buying, and… the proposed credit card interest cap. “Rob, yesterday’s Commentary had a piece on President Trump’s proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10 percent. Will it impact lenders?” One quick thought is, “If mortgagees are relying on borrowers refinancing their 25 percent credit
Broker, Jumbo, Verification, Climate Risk Products; CFPB Requests Money, Reverse Referral Opinion; CPI Data
Today’s Capital Markets Wrap (3PM ET) will cover how mortgage rates may be impacted by the lack of a traditional flight to quality despite rising international unrest, alongside proposed limits on institutional SFR purchases, rate sheet changes, recent presidential commentary on GSE bond buying, and… the proposed credit card interest cap. “Rob, yesterday’s Commentary had a piece on President Trump’s proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10 percent. Will it impact lenders?” One quick thought is, “If mortgagees are relying on borrowers refinancing their 25 percent credit
13th January, 26
Mixed, But Modestly Stronger Reaction to CPI
CPI came out just a bit lower than expected with the monthly core at 0.2 vs 0.3 and annual core at 2.6 vs 2.7. The unrounded numbers were closer to forecasts and headline inflation was unchanged from last month. All that to say that there was no major directional suggestion for rates in today's data. It's best use is to confirm that inflation is roughly where we left it before data collection got wonky surrounding the shutdown. Bonds are definitely stronger than they were before the data, but the gains have been choppy and fairly small so far.
Mixed, But Modestly Stronger Reaction to CPI
CPI came out just a bit lower than expected with the monthly core at 0.2 vs 0.3 and annual core at 2.6 vs 2.7. The unrounded numbers were closer to forecasts and headline inflation was unchanged from last month. All that to say that there was no major directional suggestion for rates in today's data. It's best use is to confirm that inflation is roughly where we left it before data collection got wonky surrounding the shutdown. Bonds are definitely stronger than they were before the data, but the gains have been choppy and fairly small so far.
12th January, 26
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data Bonds were marginally weaker on Monday with no obvious scapegoats in sight. Some reporters pointed toward Fed Chair Powell's criminal inquiry as rattling the market, but bonds were effectively unchanged in the 1pm hour after a well-received 10yr Treasury auction. More importantly, there was no clear correlation between the overnight news and the overnight market movement. Volume was the lowest in several days--typical for a data-free Monday. MBS underperformed, but only because they're still range-finding after last week's massive outperformance.
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data Bonds were marginally weaker on Monday with no obvious scapegoats in sight. Some reporters pointed toward Fed Chair Powell's criminal inquiry as rattling the market, but bonds were effectively unchanged in the 1pm hour after a well-received 10yr Treasury auction. More importantly, there was no clear correlation between the overnight news and the overnight market movement. Volume was the lowest in several days--typical for a data-free Monday. MBS underperformed, but only because they're still range-finding after last week's massive outperformance.
12th January, 26
Mortgage Rates Inch Higher From 3 Year Lows
Mortgage rates are either higher or lower today, depending on the lender in question. Some lenders raised rates on Friday afternoon in response to weakness in the bond market (lenders set rates based on the trading levels of MBS, the bonds that underlie the mortgage market). Those lenders are actually slightly lower today. Lenders who didn't raise rates on Friday afternoon are slightly higher today. In all cases, apart from Friday morning, today's rates remain well below anything seen for nearly 3 years. This is notable considering 10yr are near 4 month highs and more than 0.20% higher than
Mortgage Rates Inch Higher From 3 Year Lows
Mortgage rates are either higher or lower today, depending on the lender in question. Some lenders raised rates on Friday afternoon in response to weakness in the bond market (lenders set rates based on the trading levels of MBS, the bonds that underlie the mortgage market). Those lenders are actually slightly lower today. Lenders who didn't raise rates on Friday afternoon are slightly higher today. In all cases, apart from Friday morning, today's rates remain well below anything seen for nearly 3 years. This is notable considering 10yr are near 4 month highs and more than 0.20% higher than
12th January, 26
ICE Experience, AI Webinar, LOS, Inside Sales, BBYS, DSCR Products; Is a Cap on Credit Cards Possible?
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that the median age of first-time homebuyers has increased significantly, reaching 40 years old, compared to 29 years old in 1981. Not only that, but first-time home buyer share has fallen to a historic low of 21 percent. If you’re a lender, do you have the products in your arsenal to take advantage of these demographic shifts? In addition, do you have the technology that your clients prefer? In today’s Now Next Later, at 10AM PT, Jodi Hall and Jeremy Potter will focus on technology and innovation. (Today’s podcast can be found here and
ICE Experience, AI Webinar, LOS, Inside Sales, BBYS, DSCR Products; Is a Cap on Credit Cards Possible?
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that the median age of first-time homebuyers has increased significantly, reaching 40 years old, compared to 29 years old in 1981. Not only that, but first-time home buyer share has fallen to a historic low of 21 percent. If you’re a lender, do you have the products in your arsenal to take advantage of these demographic shifts? In addition, do you have the technology that your clients prefer? In today’s Now Next Later, at 10AM PT, Jodi Hall and Jeremy Potter will focus on technology and innovation. (Today’s podcast can be found here and
12th January, 26
Bond Market Only Marginally Interested in Powell Drama For Now
The most important-sounding news over the weekend was last night's subpoena of Fed Chair Powell over statements made to congress regarding the Fed's building renovations. Bond yields were slightly higher this morning and commentators erroneously connected those dots. There was actually no meaningful movement in either direction when the news hit, but trading volume confirms the news was noticed. Forex markets also confirmed a reaction with the dollar losing obvious ground vs the Euro, but Treasury futures weren't well-correlated with that move. The following chart shows the percent
Bond Market Only Marginally Interested in Powell Drama For Now
The most important-sounding news over the weekend was last night's subpoena of Fed Chair Powell over statements made to congress regarding the Fed's building renovations. Bond yields were slightly higher this morning and commentators erroneously connected those dots. There was actually no meaningful movement in either direction when the news hit, but trading volume confirms the news was noticed. Forex markets also confirmed a reaction with the dollar losing obvious ground vs the Euro, but Treasury futures weren't well-correlated with that move. The following chart shows the percent
9th January, 26
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments We may have been looking to the jobs report as this week's biggest potential source of volatility, but that changed on Thursday afternoon after Trump's $200bln MBS buying announcement. Treasuries have only been able to watch from the sidelines. At one point this morning after the jobs data, Treasuries were several bps weaker while MBS were in the midst of their biggest rally in months (up more than a half point at the time). There was a rapid "distribution" phase following the initial rally, but prices bounced back to end the day up about a
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments We may have been looking to the jobs report as this week's biggest potential source of volatility, but that changed on Thursday afternoon after Trump's $200bln MBS buying announcement. Treasuries have only been able to watch from the sidelines. At one point this morning after the jobs data, Treasuries were several bps weaker while MBS were in the midst of their biggest rally in months (up more than a half point at the time). There was a rapid "distribution" phase following the initial rally, but prices bounced back to end the day up about a
9th January, 26
Rates Plummet to 3 Year Lows, But There Are Caveats
On a week where the mortgage market was most likely to experience volatility due to Friday's jobs report, Thursday afternoon's surprise announcement of $200bln in GSE MBS (mortgage-backed securities) buying stole the show. This was already juicing the underlying MBS market yesterday afternoon, but traders took the surge to the next level this morning. This matters because MBS dictate mortgage rates. When MBS are rising/improving/surging/etc., it implies lower rates. MBS had improved so much this morning that the average lender released their best rate sheet since Feb 2, 2023--the lowest
Rates Plummet to 3 Year Lows, But There Are Caveats
On a week where the mortgage market was most likely to experience volatility due to Friday's jobs report, Thursday afternoon's surprise announcement of $200bln in GSE MBS (mortgage-backed securities) buying stole the show. This was already juicing the underlying MBS market yesterday afternoon, but traders took the surge to the next level this morning. This matters because MBS dictate mortgage rates. When MBS are rising/improving/surging/etc., it implies lower rates. MBS had improved so much this morning that the average lender released their best rate sheet since Feb 2, 2023--the lowest