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17th June, 26
Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think of His Changes
Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think of His Changes Ironically, one of Warsh's comments in today's press conference was that market movement is the most important source of information for the Fed. At the same time, the market was effectively saying that it was also fond of hearing what was on the Fed's mind, and if the Fed is going to stop sharing those thoughts, the market was going to cry about it. This certainly wasn't the whole story as the hawkish dot plot did about half the damage well before the press conference. One could also argue that some traders may have expected Warsh to do
Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think of His Changes
Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think of His Changes Ironically, one of Warsh's comments in today's press conference was that market movement is the most important source of information for the Fed. At the same time, the market was effectively saying that it was also fond of hearing what was on the Fed's mind, and if the Fed is going to stop sharing those thoughts, the market was going to cry about it. This certainly wasn't the whole story as the hawkish dot plot did about half the damage well before the press conference. One could also argue that some traders may have expected Warsh to do
17th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Spike in Response to Fed
Mortgage rates quickly erased a week of progress this afternoon following the Fed announcement and press conference. Fed announcement day historically has several components: the announcement itself, the summary of economic projections (SEP), and the press conference. Within the SEP, there is the dot plot showing each Fed member's assumptions about where the Fed Funds Rate will be in the future if the economy continues on the expected course. "The dots" only come out every other Fed meeting, but they have a habit of causing volatile market reactions. Today's was no exception. The dots
Mortgage Rates Spike in Response to Fed
Mortgage rates quickly erased a week of progress this afternoon following the Fed announcement and press conference. Fed announcement day historically has several components: the announcement itself, the summary of economic projections (SEP), and the press conference. Within the SEP, there is the dot plot showing each Fed member's assumptions about where the Fed Funds Rate will be in the future if the economy continues on the expected course. "The dots" only come out every other Fed meeting, but they have a habit of causing volatile market reactions. Today's was no exception. The dots
17th June, 26
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. 12 – 0 vote: The Committee seeks decided to achieve maximum employment and inflation maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Developments 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in the Middle
Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. 12 – 0 vote: The Committee seeks decided to achieve maximum employment and inflation maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Developments 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in the Middle
17th June, 26
NMLS Review, Fraud Monitor, Margin Mgt. Tools; Mortgage Products Shifting... Progressive's "Uppayment"?
Here in Honolulu, as it is in places like Florida and New York, the condo market and HOA fees are of paramount importance, as are the affordability impact of special assessments. Even though the inventory of houses for sale has steadily increased in many areas, some people want more. One idea being bantered about is changing, or eliminating, the capital gains tax on the sale of primary residences. Money talks, and as this veteran LO points out, a housing crash won’t fix affordability. A crackdown on H-1B visas is causing Indian buyers to leave the Dallas housing market, meaning skilled
NMLS Review, Fraud Monitor, Margin Mgt. Tools; Mortgage Products Shifting... Progressive's "Uppayment"?
Here in Honolulu, as it is in places like Florida and New York, the condo market and HOA fees are of paramount importance, as are the affordability impact of special assessments. Even though the inventory of houses for sale has steadily increased in many areas, some people want more. One idea being bantered about is changing, or eliminating, the capital gains tax on the sale of primary residences. Money talks, and as this veteran LO points out, a housing crash won’t fix affordability. A crackdown on H-1B visas is causing Indian buyers to leave the Dallas housing market, meaning skilled
17th June, 26
What Are Bonds Waiting For?
So far today, we've seen some war-related headlines that feel like they should have gotten at least a mild response (Trump saying MOU isn't final and could go back to dropping bombs) and a Retail Sales report that speaks to ongoing economic expansion at a faster-than-expected pace. Both of those things argue for something other than a modest rally in bonds, yet that is exactly what we're seeing. If it weren't for the absence of any major response in other markets, we might wonder what bonds were smoking, or whether they're waiting for bigger news. On that note, the whole market actually is
What Are Bonds Waiting For?
So far today, we've seen some war-related headlines that feel like they should have gotten at least a mild response (Trump saying MOU isn't final and could go back to dropping bombs) and a Retail Sales report that speaks to ongoing economic expansion at a faster-than-expected pace. Both of those things argue for something other than a modest rally in bonds, yet that is exactly what we're seeing. If it weren't for the absence of any major response in other markets, we might wonder what bonds were smoking, or whether they're waiting for bigger news. On that note, the whole market actually is
16th June, 26
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance Bonds improved overnight at the start of European trading and made additional gains in concert with lower oil prices during the domestic session. Notably, the gains met resistance at 4.42%--a resistance level that's been on our radar since the last bounce a few weeks ago. Technical levels certainly don't predict the future, but they can provide a framework for measuring the pace of change in trading levels. If bonds are weaker in the morning, it would act as confirmation that the initial response to the Iran peace deal has played out. In addition
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance Bonds improved overnight at the start of European trading and made additional gains in concert with lower oil prices during the domestic session. Notably, the gains met resistance at 4.42%--a resistance level that's been on our radar since the last bounce a few weeks ago. Technical levels certainly don't predict the future, but they can provide a framework for measuring the pace of change in trading levels. If bonds are weaker in the morning, it would act as confirmation that the initial response to the Iran peace deal has played out. In addition
16th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Lowest Since May 14th
Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate was 6.54% for the average lender. You'd have to go back to May 14th's reading of 6.52% to see anything lower. The latest improvement follows another moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields as global markets digest the U.S./Iran peace deal. There's still some risk that the deal doesn't happen as is currently expected. If those risks materialize, rates could nudge back up toward recent highs. But if everything goes according to plan (or close to it), the bond market may continue pricing in the expected impact on oil prices. The only warning is that some
Mortgage Rates Lowest Since May 14th
Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate was 6.54% for the average lender. You'd have to go back to May 14th's reading of 6.52% to see anything lower. The latest improvement follows another moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields as global markets digest the U.S./Iran peace deal. There's still some risk that the deal doesn't happen as is currently expected. If those risks materialize, rates could nudge back up toward recent highs. But if everything goes according to plan (or close to it), the bond market may continue pricing in the expected impact on oil prices. The only warning is that some
16th June, 26
Stronger Overnight as Europe Trades Peace
European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets. Why bring this up? There was a fairly obvious shift toward lower oil prices and bond yields overnight, and the most obvious suspect was simply the opening bell for European markets. While obvious, it wasn't too big. 10yr yields are hovering in a range that's 2-3bps lower than yesterday, and still above the lows seen at the beginning of the month.
Stronger Overnight as Europe Trades Peace
European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets. Why bring this up? There was a fairly obvious shift toward lower oil prices and bond yields overnight, and the most obvious suspect was simply the opening bell for European markets. While obvious, it wasn't too big. 10yr yields are hovering in a range that's 2-3bps lower than yesterday, and still above the lows seen at the beginning of the month.
16th June, 26
AI Products; Fair Lending, Deportations, and Service Animals; AI Governance; Pennymac's AI Path
Sure, we have a Fed meeting, but the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. Will they all head off on vacation after this week? Perhaps. Given the increase in the “out of office” replies I am seeing, and children in airports, summer vacation is in full swing. (Apparently families will change their spending habits to accommodate the run up in fuel costs; my local gas station won’t let me go above $100 per visit on my credit card.) In an extreme example to time management, the U.S. Congress has only 16 legislative days left on its agenda until the election; the rest of the time is vacation and
AI Products; Fair Lending, Deportations, and Service Animals; AI Governance; Pennymac's AI Path
Sure, we have a Fed meeting, but the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. Will they all head off on vacation after this week? Perhaps. Given the increase in the “out of office” replies I am seeing, and children in airports, summer vacation is in full swing. (Apparently families will change their spending habits to accommodate the run up in fuel costs; my local gas station won’t let me go above $100 per visit on my credit card.) In an extreme example to time management, the U.S. Congress has only 16 legislative days left on its agenda until the election; the rest of the time is vacation and
15th June, 26
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger.
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger. With both sides signing the peace memo, the market was immediately willing to react in the overnight session, but that reaction fell short of what we might expect for an official peace deal. This is a bond market problem more than an Iran war problem. Case in point, oil prices stayed flat after their big overnight drop. Stocks added to strong overnight gains. Bonds were the odd man out. Part of the reason is that bonds did more than stocks to get in position for this eventuality last week. As of today, both the S&P and 10yr are
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger.
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger. With both sides signing the peace memo, the market was immediately willing to react in the overnight session, but that reaction fell short of what we might expect for an official peace deal. This is a bond market problem more than an Iran war problem. Case in point, oil prices stayed flat after their big overnight drop. Stocks added to strong overnight gains. Bonds were the odd man out. Part of the reason is that bonds did more than stocks to get in position for this eventuality last week. As of today, both the S&P and 10yr are