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3rd October, 25
Weaker Day, Stronger Week
Weaker Day, Stronger Week Friday ended up seeing the bond market give up some ground with most of the weakness following the ISM Services data. The headline wasn't the culprit. Rather, resilience in the employment index and persistence in the price index did the damage. Even then, the damage was minimal in the bigger picture and not sufficient to derail what ended up being a stronger week overall. Econ Data / Events ISM Biz Activity (Sep) 49.9 vs 51.8 f'cast, 55 prev ISM N-Mfg PMI (Sep) 50.0 vs 51.7 f'cast, 52.0 prev ISM Services Employment (Sep) 47.2 vs -- f'cast, 46.5 prev ISM Services New
Weaker Day, Stronger Week
Weaker Day, Stronger Week Friday ended up seeing the bond market give up some ground with most of the weakness following the ISM Services data. The headline wasn't the culprit. Rather, resilience in the employment index and persistence in the price index did the damage. Even then, the damage was minimal in the bigger picture and not sufficient to derail what ended up being a stronger week overall. Econ Data / Events ISM Biz Activity (Sep) 49.9 vs 51.8 f'cast, 55 prev ISM N-Mfg PMI (Sep) 50.0 vs 51.7 f'cast, 52.0 prev ISM Services Employment (Sep) 47.2 vs -- f'cast, 46.5 prev ISM Services New
3rd October, 25
Mortgage Rates Lowest Since Fed Day
Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today. Relative to any other day in the past 2 weeks, it was unremarkable. But because the range has been so narrow over that time, and because rates were already at the lower boundary of that range yesterday, it technically resulted in the lowest average rate since Fed Day on September 17th. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker. This would typically result in mortgage rates moving higher. The catch is the timing of the weakness (and yesterday's strength). Specifically, bonds improved yesterday afternoon but not enough for the average
Mortgage Rates Lowest Since Fed Day
Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today. Relative to any other day in the past 2 weeks, it was unremarkable. But because the range has been so narrow over that time, and because rates were already at the lower boundary of that range yesterday, it technically resulted in the lowest average rate since Fed Day on September 17th. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker. This would typically result in mortgage rates moving higher. The catch is the timing of the weakness (and yesterday's strength). Specifically, bonds improved yesterday afternoon but not enough for the average
3rd October, 25
4% Gain in Pending Home Sales Isn't Exactly What it Seems
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—ticked higher in August, but remains locked in the same flat, depressed range that has defined the past two years. Pending home sales rose 4.0% in August, lifting the index to its highest level since March, and 3.8% above the same month last year. That all sounds pretty good, but the chart tells a more sobering story. The overall trend hasn’t changed: contract activity continues to bounce around within a narrow band, showing only modest sensitivity to month-to-month
4% Gain in Pending Home Sales Isn't Exactly What it Seems
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—ticked higher in August, but remains locked in the same flat, depressed range that has defined the past two years. Pending home sales rose 4.0% in August, lifting the index to its highest level since March, and 3.8% above the same month last year. That all sounds pretty good, but the chart tells a more sobering story. The overall trend hasn’t changed: contract activity continues to bounce around within a narrow band, showing only modest sensitivity to month-to-month
3rd October, 25
Home Price Growth May be The Lowest in Years, But Home Prices Remain Near All-Time Highs
Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The message hasn’t changed: prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of growth continues to slow. Case-Shiller is now at its weakest year-over-year level in more than 2 years, while FHFA remains stuck near the lowest growth since 2012. The eternal caveat with home price data is that the "lowest in x years" classification doesn't mean home prices are falling if the percent change is still positive--something that's still easily the case in annual terms. Another way to
Home Price Growth May be The Lowest in Years, But Home Prices Remain Near All-Time Highs
Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The message hasn’t changed: prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of growth continues to slow. Case-Shiller is now at its weakest year-over-year level in more than 2 years, while FHFA remains stuck near the lowest growth since 2012. The eternal caveat with home price data is that the "lowest in x years" classification doesn't mean home prices are falling if the percent change is still positive--something that's still easily the case in annual terms. Another way to
3rd October, 25
Mortgage Apps Drop Sharply, But It Was Still The 3rd Best Week in 3 Years
Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as higher rates cut into both refinance and purchase demand. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, total volume fell 12.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 13% unadjusted. The Refinance Index decreased 21% from the previous week but remains 16% higher than the same week one year ago. The pullback was broad-based, with double-digit declines across conventional and VA refinancing after rates climbed to three-week highs. Apart from the previous 2 weeks, the index was at the highest levels in more
Mortgage Apps Drop Sharply, But It Was Still The 3rd Best Week in 3 Years
Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as higher rates cut into both refinance and purchase demand. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, total volume fell 12.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 13% unadjusted. The Refinance Index decreased 21% from the previous week but remains 16% higher than the same week one year ago. The pullback was broad-based, with double-digit declines across conventional and VA refinancing after rates climbed to three-week highs. Apart from the previous 2 weeks, the index was at the highest levels in more
3rd October, 25
Hedging, Homeowner Intelligence, AI Tools; Agency Shutdown Developments; California MBA CEO Interview
Here in Telluride, CO, after learning of my capital markets background, yesterday someone bluntly asked me, “Can one person slow or stop the United States economy, or the world economy?” I was taken aback by the question, but it isn’t totally off-base: no one is saying a shutdown helps GDP. In eight months, we’ve learned not to underestimate the changes that can be made by the current administration. We had been talking about the government’s shutdown, impacting several areas of residential lending (see below). As previous “on the record” statements made by President Trump
Hedging, Homeowner Intelligence, AI Tools; Agency Shutdown Developments; California MBA CEO Interview
Here in Telluride, CO, after learning of my capital markets background, yesterday someone bluntly asked me, “Can one person slow or stop the United States economy, or the world economy?” I was taken aback by the question, but it isn’t totally off-base: no one is saying a shutdown helps GDP. In eight months, we’ve learned not to underestimate the changes that can be made by the current administration. We had been talking about the government’s shutdown, impacting several areas of residential lending (see below). As previous “on the record” statements made by President Trump
3rd October, 25
Slightly Weaker After Mixed ISM Data
With NFP on hold due to the shutdown, today's ISM Services was our only chance for for data driven volatility in the 2nd half of the week. A big beat/miss in this report is certainly capable of moving the needle, but today's example is mixed. New orders fell sharply, but employment ticked up slightly (and employment may be a bit more tradeable right now for obvious reasons). Prices were basically unchanged at elevated levels. After some modest weakness heading into the data, there's been a bit of additional selling in its wake
Slightly Weaker After Mixed ISM Data
With NFP on hold due to the shutdown, today's ISM Services was our only chance for for data driven volatility in the 2nd half of the week. A big beat/miss in this report is certainly capable of moving the needle, but today's example is mixed. New orders fell sharply, but employment ticked up slightly (and employment may be a bit more tradeable right now for obvious reasons). Prices were basically unchanged at elevated levels. After some modest weakness heading into the data, there's been a bit of additional selling in its wake
2nd October, 25
Ultra Quiet Session, But Ultimately Stronger
Ultra Quiet Session, But Ultimately Stronger With the day's only relevant econ data on hold due to the shutdown, bonds didn't have any objective inspiration. Add the Yom Kippur holiday as well as the absence of tomorrow's jobs report, and there suddenly seems to be no compelling reason for the bond market to be open for the rest of the week. This was reflected in volume and AM volatility--both were muted. There was modest movement in the afternoon with trading levels moving into slightly stronger territory. This could be viewed as an incidental byproduct of the shift in buyers/sellers
Ultra Quiet Session, But Ultimately Stronger
Ultra Quiet Session, But Ultimately Stronger With the day's only relevant econ data on hold due to the shutdown, bonds didn't have any objective inspiration. Add the Yom Kippur holiday as well as the absence of tomorrow's jobs report, and there suddenly seems to be no compelling reason for the bond market to be open for the rest of the week. This was reflected in volume and AM volatility--both were muted. There was modest movement in the afternoon with trading levels moving into slightly stronger territory. This could be viewed as an incidental byproduct of the shift in buyers/sellers
2nd October, 25
Mortgage Rates Technically Lower, But Effectively Flat
If we're splitting hairs, today's mortgage rates are half a hair lower than yesterday's, but the average borrower might not see a difference in a rate quote. Our 30yr fixed rate index fell by the smallest increment possible (.01%) and it hasn't been more than 0.03% away from that level for two weeks. With the Federal government closed, today's only potentially relevant economic data was not reported. It will be the same story tomorrow, which was originally scheduled to host the release of the jobs report. No other report comes close in terms of relevance to rates. Going without it means the
Mortgage Rates Technically Lower, But Effectively Flat
If we're splitting hairs, today's mortgage rates are half a hair lower than yesterday's, but the average borrower might not see a difference in a rate quote. Our 30yr fixed rate index fell by the smallest increment possible (.01%) and it hasn't been more than 0.03% away from that level for two weeks. With the Federal government closed, today's only potentially relevant economic data was not reported. It will be the same story tomorrow, which was originally scheduled to host the release of the jobs report. No other report comes close in terms of relevance to rates. Going without it means the
2nd October, 25
Commercial, Borrower Mining, LOS Tools; FICO's Direct License Program; Lisa Cook on Hold Until January
We’re two days into the 4th quarter of the 2025, two days into another government shutdown, and… companies are relishing their September numbers. I have been hearing from a few companies that had strong performance in September. For example, Union Home Mortgage has been in the news lately, and the company had a record lock month with over 5,000 units and $1.67 billion over all channels. As we noted here a couple of weeks ago, UHM announced the acquisition of the origination assets of Sierra Pacific, whose lock volume totaled $521 million for the month, so combined that puts UHM with a
Commercial, Borrower Mining, LOS Tools; FICO's Direct License Program; Lisa Cook on Hold Until January
We’re two days into the 4th quarter of the 2025, two days into another government shutdown, and… companies are relishing their September numbers. I have been hearing from a few companies that had strong performance in September. For example, Union Home Mortgage has been in the news lately, and the company had a record lock month with over 5,000 units and $1.67 billion over all channels. As we noted here a couple of weeks ago, UHM announced the acquisition of the origination assets of Sierra Pacific, whose lock volume totaled $521 million for the month, so combined that puts UHM with a