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12th June, 25
Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally
Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally Thursday's PPI was just as tame as Wednesday's CPI and, for a moment, it looked like bonds were going to offer an encore performance of the post-CPI rally. But in Thursday's case, bonds had already rallied nearly that much in the overnight session. We're inclined to view this through the lens of Thursday's data standing aside for the momentum created by Wednesday's data. In other words, CPI prompted a lead-off rally and PPI didn't push back in the other direction. We can also give some credit to Jobless Claims
Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally
Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally Thursday's PPI was just as tame as Wednesday's CPI and, for a moment, it looked like bonds were going to offer an encore performance of the post-CPI rally. But in Thursday's case, bonds had already rallied nearly that much in the overnight session. We're inclined to view this through the lens of Thursday's data standing aside for the momentum created by Wednesday's data. In other words, CPI prompted a lead-off rally and PPI didn't push back in the other direction. We can also give some credit to Jobless Claims
12th June, 25
Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than a Month
Mortgage rates being offered today are only a hair lower for the average lender than they were on June 4th, but June 4th was the best day since early May. In other words, today's average rate is the lowest in just over a month. This didn't happen by chance. The underlying bond market has been responding to economic data over the past two days. Yesterday's consumer-focused inflation data delivered most of the benefit. Today's producer-focused inflation data essentially stayed out of the way. The data has created some buzz regarding the Fed's rate cut outlook.
Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than a Month
Mortgage rates being offered today are only a hair lower for the average lender than they were on June 4th, but June 4th was the best day since early May. In other words, today's average rate is the lowest in just over a month. This didn't happen by chance. The underlying bond market has been responding to economic data over the past two days. Yesterday's consumer-focused inflation data delivered most of the benefit. Today's producer-focused inflation data essentially stayed out of the way. The data has created some buzz regarding the Fed's rate cut outlook.
12th June, 25
Correspondent, Jumbo, POS Tools; Fairway/Hallmark Deal; HELOC, 2nd, Non-QM News
“I was always a home builder, but lately I’ve developed an apartment complex.” Here in Florida, so many structures are made of stucco because stucco is fairly inexpensive, creates a great finished look, and is easy to apply to homes constructed with concrete blocks. But it can be damaged as a house shifts and settles over time. Companies like Icon, or COBOD International, are making news with their 3-D printed homes (and communities) that build houses layer by layer with cement-based material. But they have generated more headlines than buildings: “Building houses that work twice as
Correspondent, Jumbo, POS Tools; Fairway/Hallmark Deal; HELOC, 2nd, Non-QM News
“I was always a home builder, but lately I’ve developed an apartment complex.” Here in Florida, so many structures are made of stucco because stucco is fairly inexpensive, creates a great finished look, and is easy to apply to homes constructed with concrete blocks. But it can be damaged as a house shifts and settles over time. Companies like Icon, or COBOD International, are making news with their 3-D printed homes (and communities) that build houses layer by layer with cement-based material. But they have generated more headlines than buildings: “Building houses that work twice as
12th June, 25
Higher Bar For Additional Gains Despite Lower PPI
This morning's PPI did its best impression of yesterday's CPI with the core monthly number coming in at 0.1 vs 0.3 forecast. In yesterday's case, this was good enough for a reasonably big rally. Today, not so much. While bonds did manage to add to overnight gains in the immediate wake of the data, they're pushing back above pre-data yields now. The key difference between today and yesterday--and possibly the simplest explanation for the different outcome--is that today began with fairly big overnight rally whereas yesterday began with an overnight sell-off. In
Higher Bar For Additional Gains Despite Lower PPI
This morning's PPI did its best impression of yesterday's CPI with the core monthly number coming in at 0.1 vs 0.3 forecast. In yesterday's case, this was good enough for a reasonably big rally. Today, not so much. While bonds did manage to add to overnight gains in the immediate wake of the data, they're pushing back above pre-data yields now. The key difference between today and yesterday--and possibly the simplest explanation for the different outcome--is that today began with fairly big overnight rally whereas yesterday began with an overnight sell-off. In
11th June, 25
Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results
Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results Wednesday ended up being a straightforward session for bonds with a large CPI beat prompting a decently swift rally in the bond market. Shorter maturities did the best--also logical considering the proximity to the Fed Funds Rate and the fact that Fed rate expectations rallied 8+ bps. But longer maturities got a bit more love after a well-received 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm. Respectable results on a day where bonds are already rallying are all the more respectable. With that, bonds hit new low yields for the day (MBS hit new highs) and neither
Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results
Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results Wednesday ended up being a straightforward session for bonds with a large CPI beat prompting a decently swift rally in the bond market. Shorter maturities did the best--also logical considering the proximity to the Fed Funds Rate and the fact that Fed rate expectations rallied 8+ bps. But longer maturities got a bit more love after a well-received 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm. Respectable results on a day where bonds are already rallying are all the more respectable. With that, bonds hit new low yields for the day (MBS hit new highs) and neither
11th June, 25
Mortgage Rates Fall as Inflation Data Comes in Soft
After a calm start to the week on Monday and Tuesday, we were likely to see a bit more volatility on Wednesday due to important events on the calendar. The first was the morning's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation report. Inflation is one of the most basic inputs for the bond market. Bonds, in turn, dictate interest rate movement. In general, higher inflation coincides with higher rates and vice versa. Today's inflation data came out much lower than the market anticipated. Bonds improved quickly in response thus allowing mortgage lenders to offer lower rates.&
Mortgage Rates Fall as Inflation Data Comes in Soft
After a calm start to the week on Monday and Tuesday, we were likely to see a bit more volatility on Wednesday due to important events on the calendar. The first was the morning's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation report. Inflation is one of the most basic inputs for the bond market. Bonds, in turn, dictate interest rate movement. In general, higher inflation coincides with higher rates and vice versa. Today's inflation data came out much lower than the market anticipated. Bonds improved quickly in response thus allowing mortgage lenders to offer lower rates.&
11th June, 25
Processing, Non-QM, LOS, Warehouse Tools; Legal Firm and Compliance News
Here in Tampa, I was walking through the hotel bar last night when I overheard someone say, “Age 60 might be the new 40, but 9:00 PM is the new midnight.” True dat. (There is also plenty of attention on the House Financial Services Committee advancing the Trigger Leads Bill.) Speaking of Florida, the state has certainly been subject to some dramatic business cycles over the last 100 years since the railroads helped populate the Sunshine State. ATTOM released its May 2025 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows there were a total of 35,498 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings,
Processing, Non-QM, LOS, Warehouse Tools; Legal Firm and Compliance News
Here in Tampa, I was walking through the hotel bar last night when I overheard someone say, “Age 60 might be the new 40, but 9:00 PM is the new midnight.” True dat. (There is also plenty of attention on the House Financial Services Committee advancing the Trigger Leads Bill.) Speaking of Florida, the state has certainly been subject to some dramatic business cycles over the last 100 years since the railroads helped populate the Sunshine State. ATTOM released its May 2025 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows there were a total of 35,498 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings,
11th June, 25
CPI Comes in Low Enough to Help
Heading into today's CPI data, our stance was that we'd need to see the monthly core number come in at 0.1 vs 0.3 in order to see much of a friendly response, and that is exactly what's playing out. If markets weren't taking inflation with a grain of salt at the moment, this would likely be worth a much bigger response. As it stands, Fed Funds Futures didn't even erase the spike seen after last Friday's jobs report, and 10yr yields only dropped to 4.42 before bouncing--well short of the 4.39 pre-NFP levels
CPI Comes in Low Enough to Help
Heading into today's CPI data, our stance was that we'd need to see the monthly core number come in at 0.1 vs 0.3 in order to see much of a friendly response, and that is exactly what's playing out. If markets weren't taking inflation with a grain of salt at the moment, this would likely be worth a much bigger response. As it stands, Fed Funds Futures didn't even erase the spike seen after last Friday's jobs report, and 10yr yields only dropped to 4.42 before bouncing--well short of the 4.39 pre-NFP levels
10th June, 25
No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow?
No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow? After a slightly bumpy start for reasons that remain unknown, the bond market settled into an uneventful sideways grind that lasted through the 3pm CME close. Both MBS and Treasuries were effectively unchanged and the latter didn't give a second thought to a fairly weak 3yr Treasury auction. Trade headlines were less than meaty, but talks between the US and China are now said to potentially move into a 3rd day. That means tomorrow's calendar will be shared between trade-related headlines, a 10yr Treasury auction (more relevant than the 3yr) and CPI data. As
No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow?
No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow? After a slightly bumpy start for reasons that remain unknown, the bond market settled into an uneventful sideways grind that lasted through the 3pm CME close. Both MBS and Treasuries were effectively unchanged and the latter didn't give a second thought to a fairly weak 3yr Treasury auction. Trade headlines were less than meaty, but talks between the US and China are now said to potentially move into a 3rd day. That means tomorrow's calendar will be shared between trade-related headlines, a 10yr Treasury auction (more relevant than the 3yr) and CPI data. As
10th June, 25
Mortgage Rates Inch Slightly Lower
It was a fairly boring day on what has turned out to be a fairly boring week so far for mortgage rates. After Friday's larger spike, we've seen a microscopic recovery on each of the past 2 days. In terms of specific index levels, this equates to a 0.04% drop in the top tier 30yr fixed rate for the average lender. This is roughly one third of the minimum increment that separates typical mortgage rate offerings. In other words, it isn't a huge move by any means. Tomorrow brings the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--an economic report that has occasionally
Mortgage Rates Inch Slightly Lower
It was a fairly boring day on what has turned out to be a fairly boring week so far for mortgage rates. After Friday's larger spike, we've seen a microscopic recovery on each of the past 2 days. In terms of specific index levels, this equates to a 0.04% drop in the top tier 30yr fixed rate for the average lender. This is roughly one third of the minimum increment that separates typical mortgage rate offerings. In other words, it isn't a huge move by any means. Tomorrow brings the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--an economic report that has occasionally
