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2nd February, 26
Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday
Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday Very little changed after this morning's commentary. At the time, we were watching bonds sell-off somewhat sharply in response to an exceptionally strong ISM Manufacturing report. As is often the case with data-driven selling sprees, the worst was over in the first 10 minutes and the rest of the day was broadly sideways. That said, it wasn't without its interesting updates. Chief among them was news that this Friday's jobs report would be postponed due to the government shutdown (and same story with tomorrow's JOLTS data).
Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday
Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday Very little changed after this morning's commentary. At the time, we were watching bonds sell-off somewhat sharply in response to an exceptionally strong ISM Manufacturing report. As is often the case with data-driven selling sprees, the worst was over in the first 10 minutes and the rest of the day was broadly sideways. That said, it wasn't without its interesting updates. Chief among them was news that this Friday's jobs report would be postponed due to the government shutdown (and same story with tomorrow's JOLTS data).
2nd February, 26
Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Higher Despite Bond Market Weakness
Weakness in the bond market generally means higher mortgage rates. Today was no exception. A key economic report on the manufacturing sector was much stronger than expected. Bonds lost ground as a result and mortgage lenders were forced to set rates higher than Friday's latest levels. But the caveat is that the average lender was only marginally higher. The level of movement in the bond market suggested a bigger change. In other words, mortgage rates fared a bit better than the market suggested. When this happens, it's most frequently due to timing. If bonds lose ground moderately, but those
Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Higher Despite Bond Market Weakness
Weakness in the bond market generally means higher mortgage rates. Today was no exception. A key economic report on the manufacturing sector was much stronger than expected. Bonds lost ground as a result and mortgage lenders were forced to set rates higher than Friday's latest levels. But the caveat is that the average lender was only marginally higher. The level of movement in the bond market suggested a bigger change. In other words, mortgage rates fared a bit better than the market suggested. When this happens, it's most frequently due to timing. If bonds lose ground moderately, but those
2nd February, 26
Mgt. Review, BBYS, Digital HELOC, Non-QM Products; Opinions on Credit Fixes; IMB Underway
There are lots of rumors about more M&A. For example, Maxwell, a POS and mortgage origination services company, being acquired by Place, a real estate tech platform and real estate brokerage company. Place (with its Mortgage Calculator App) is rumored to be heavily involved (owns?) Envoy Mortgage. Word in the hallways that Place, and others, will continue to strive toward creating end-to-end platforms of real estate through mortgage origination. Sure enough, on today’s Now Next Later at 1PM ET, presented by Depth, Eric Lapin of Finfusion Consulting will join the conversation on emerging
Mgt. Review, BBYS, Digital HELOC, Non-QM Products; Opinions on Credit Fixes; IMB Underway
There are lots of rumors about more M&A. For example, Maxwell, a POS and mortgage origination services company, being acquired by Place, a real estate tech platform and real estate brokerage company. Place (with its Mortgage Calculator App) is rumored to be heavily involved (owns?) Envoy Mortgage. Word in the hallways that Place, and others, will continue to strive toward creating end-to-end platforms of real estate through mortgage origination. Sure enough, on today’s Now Next Later at 1PM ET, presented by Depth, Eric Lapin of Finfusion Consulting will join the conversation on emerging
2nd February, 26
Big Beat in ISM Manufacturing. Bonds Aren't Thrilled
Some would say there were warning signs, such as last week's Chicago PMI surging to the 2nd highest level since 2022, but that was generally dismissed as a noisy outlier in a data set that is volatility-prone. In this case, however, Chicago PMI was prescient. Today's ISM Manufacturing data surged to the highest level since 2022, both in terms of the headline and new orders. Even though this report isn't as much of a market mover as the non-manufacturing version, this is a big enough beat to make an exception. Bonds are clearly responding, and not in a rate-friendly way
Big Beat in ISM Manufacturing. Bonds Aren't Thrilled
Some would say there were warning signs, such as last week's Chicago PMI surging to the 2nd highest level since 2022, but that was generally dismissed as a noisy outlier in a data set that is volatility-prone. In this case, however, Chicago PMI was prescient. Today's ISM Manufacturing data surged to the highest level since 2022, both in terms of the headline and new orders. Even though this report isn't as much of a market mover as the non-manufacturing version, this is a big enough beat to make an exception. Bonds are clearly responding, and not in a rate-friendly way
30th January, 26
Volatility Eludes Bonds
Volatility Eludes Bonds Bonds saw some steady selling pressure earlier in the week, but with the total damage amounting to an average of 2bps per day in 10yr yields, it was anything but volatile. The past 2 trading sessions had more noticeable ups and downs, but they played out in an even narrower range. Friday, specifically, was woefully range-bound with 10yr yields essentially in a 2bp range all day. Balmy PPI data and Fed Chair decisions and historic volatility in certain commodities didn't make any difference. Even the 3pm ET month-end trading barely registered a response despite the
Volatility Eludes Bonds
Volatility Eludes Bonds Bonds saw some steady selling pressure earlier in the week, but with the total damage amounting to an average of 2bps per day in 10yr yields, it was anything but volatile. The past 2 trading sessions had more noticeable ups and downs, but they played out in an even narrower range. Friday, specifically, was woefully range-bound with 10yr yields essentially in a 2bp range all day. Balmy PPI data and Fed Chair decisions and historic volatility in certain commodities didn't make any difference. Even the 3pm ET month-end trading barely registered a response despite the
30th January, 26
Mortgage Rates Sidestep Into The Weekend
While there was certainly plenty of volatility elsewhere in the financial market this week, there was almost none to be found in mortgage rates. Wed, Thu, and Fri all recorded the exact same level in MND's 30yr fixed rate index--something that only happens a few times every year. Rates are based on bonds and bonds are waiting for more serious inspiration after undergoing a bit of elevated volatility at the beginning of last week. The present week has been all about consolidating and settling into a narrower range as we wait for the more important economic data on deck next week
Mortgage Rates Sidestep Into The Weekend
While there was certainly plenty of volatility elsewhere in the financial market this week, there was almost none to be found in mortgage rates. Wed, Thu, and Fri all recorded the exact same level in MND's 30yr fixed rate index--something that only happens a few times every year. Rates are based on bonds and bonds are waiting for more serious inspiration after undergoing a bit of elevated volatility at the beginning of last week. The present week has been all about consolidating and settling into a narrower range as we wait for the more important economic data on deck next week
30th January, 26
November Was Best Month of Home Price Appreciation in More Than a Year
Both the FHFA and the S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller home price indices released November data this week, and the combined message is that home price appreciation continues doing better than it had been in the middle of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index paints clearest picture with seasonally adjusted home prices up 0.6% month-over-month in November and 1.9% year-over-year . This is the 2nd month in a row with price appreciation at the highest levels in more than a year. Both data sets highlight regional differences. Monthly price changes ranged from flat in the Middle
November Was Best Month of Home Price Appreciation in More Than a Year
Both the FHFA and the S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller home price indices released November data this week, and the combined message is that home price appreciation continues doing better than it had been in the middle of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index paints clearest picture with seasonally adjusted home prices up 0.6% month-over-month in November and 1.9% year-over-year . This is the 2nd month in a row with price appreciation at the highest levels in more than a year. Both data sets highlight regional differences. Monthly price changes ranged from flat in the Middle
30th January, 26
Logical Pull-Back in Mortgage Apps as Rates Rebound
Mortgage application activity retreated a bit last week following two weeks of unusually strong volume, although holiday timing played a meaningful role in the weekly comparison. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications fell 8.5% for the week ending January 23, giving back a portion of the recent surge. The Market Composite Index declined 8.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis and was down 16% on an unadjusted basis, reflecting both the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday adjustment and a market that has shown wide week-to-week swings after extended periods of low activity
Logical Pull-Back in Mortgage Apps as Rates Rebound
Mortgage application activity retreated a bit last week following two weeks of unusually strong volume, although holiday timing played a meaningful role in the weekly comparison. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications fell 8.5% for the week ending January 23, giving back a portion of the recent surge. The Market Composite Index declined 8.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis and was down 16% on an unadjusted basis, reflecting both the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday adjustment and a market that has shown wide week-to-week swings after extended periods of low activity
30th January, 26
Verification, Licensing Tools; Correspondent News; Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh
There’s a lot of sensible thinking going on out there in our biz. Yesterday in the Thought Leadership section, attorney Mitch Kider addressed the “Rule of Law” and what he believes is important to the industry. In a new article featured in Chrisman Commentary's Thought Leadership, David Spector challenges the rate-centric view of housing affordability, arguing that the real strain comes from a tight housing supply pipeline, local zoning and permitting roadblocks, and tax policies that shape who can afford to own versus invest. He examines how transaction costs, insurance, property taxes
Verification, Licensing Tools; Correspondent News; Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh
There’s a lot of sensible thinking going on out there in our biz. Yesterday in the Thought Leadership section, attorney Mitch Kider addressed the “Rule of Law” and what he believes is important to the industry. In a new article featured in Chrisman Commentary's Thought Leadership, David Spector challenges the rate-centric view of housing affordability, arguing that the real strain comes from a tight housing supply pipeline, local zoning and permitting roadblocks, and tax policies that shape who can afford to own versus invest. He examines how transaction costs, insurance, property taxes
30th January, 26
Why Don't Bonds Care About The Massive Miss in PPI?
PPI... The Producer Price Index. It sounds a lot like CPI because both are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and they share lots of methodology and structure. Given that CPI has been responsible for some of the biggest bond market reactions, you'd be well within your rights to expect a big sell-off after seeing something like Core PPI coming in at 0.7 vs a 0.2 forecast and 0.0 previous reading. After all, if that happened in CPI, bond yields could easily be shooting 10bps higher. But PPI is notoriously more volatile. In addition, it's most useful to the bond market due to its
Why Don't Bonds Care About The Massive Miss in PPI?
PPI... The Producer Price Index. It sounds a lot like CPI because both are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and they share lots of methodology and structure. Given that CPI has been responsible for some of the biggest bond market reactions, you'd be well within your rights to expect a big sell-off after seeing something like Core PPI coming in at 0.7 vs a 0.2 forecast and 0.0 previous reading. After all, if that happened in CPI, bond yields could easily be shooting 10bps higher. But PPI is notoriously more volatile. In addition, it's most useful to the bond market due to its