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24th December, 25
Bonds Are Open... Sort Of
While many government employees have the day off today and Friday, these are not new, official Federal Holidays. As such, the bond market is open on the same schedule as always. Incidentally, that's an early close (2pm ET) on the 24th and a full close on the 25th. This assumes both are weekdays. Official holiday trading hour recommendations are published by SIFMA. Trading is off to an uneventful start with a robotically sideways overnight session and no reaction to Jobless Claims (the day's only econ data). There is also a 7yr Treasury auction at 11:30am ET, but most human traders will
Bonds Are Open... Sort Of
While many government employees have the day off today and Friday, these are not new, official Federal Holidays. As such, the bond market is open on the same schedule as always. Incidentally, that's an early close (2pm ET) on the 24th and a full close on the 25th. This assumes both are weekdays. Official holiday trading hour recommendations are published by SIFMA. Trading is off to an uneventful start with a robotically sideways overnight session and no reaction to Jobless Claims (the day's only econ data). There is also a 7yr Treasury auction at 11:30am ET, but most human traders will
23rd December, 25
Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness
Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness GDP for Q3 may be ancient history as far as econ data goes, but markets didn't seem to think so in the hour following this morning's release. GDP was much stronger than expected and bonds traded it like it was a legit market mover. But most of the reaction was a holiday-induced amplification of what might have otherwise only caused barely-noticeable weakness in bonds. That point was driven home by the end of the day as both Treasuries and MBS returned to unchanged levels. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment Change Weekly 11.5K vs -- f'
Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness
Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness GDP for Q3 may be ancient history as far as econ data goes, but markets didn't seem to think so in the hour following this morning's release. GDP was much stronger than expected and bonds traded it like it was a legit market mover. But most of the reaction was a holiday-induced amplification of what might have otherwise only caused barely-noticeable weakness in bonds. That point was driven home by the end of the day as both Treasuries and MBS returned to unchanged levels. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment Change Weekly 11.5K vs -- f'
23rd December, 25
Mortgage Rates Ultimately Unchanged After Starting Higher
Mortgage rates have broadly been in a narrow holding pattern for the past 4 months and an even narrower range during December. Today will do nothing to change that with the average lender ending the day exactly where they left of yesterday. Earlier today, however, the average lender was offering slightly higher higher rates. The upward pressure came courtesy of the bond market's reaction to stronger GDP numbers for Q3. But that initial reaction proved to be a temporary overreaction, exacerbated by lighter trading participation associated with the holiday week. In general, lower
Mortgage Rates Ultimately Unchanged After Starting Higher
Mortgage rates have broadly been in a narrow holding pattern for the past 4 months and an even narrower range during December. Today will do nothing to change that with the average lender ending the day exactly where they left of yesterday. Earlier today, however, the average lender was offering slightly higher higher rates. The upward pressure came courtesy of the bond market's reaction to stronger GDP numbers for Q3. But that initial reaction proved to be a temporary overreaction, exacerbated by lighter trading participation associated with the holiday week. In general, lower
23rd December, 25
AI, Cap Mkts Tools; Delinquencies Increasing; loanDepot Case Ethics Motion; Bill Dawley Interview
Will rates impact the latest MBA origination forecast of $2.2 trillion next year? Sure, although… The Federal Reserve has cut overnight rates, but longer-term rates (like 15- and 30-year mortgages) have done little or have gone up. Recently news came out that Freddie and Fannie are buying securities that they produce. If GM is buying its own cars, should its stock price go up, or does the price of its cars go up? Do GSE MBS purchases really move rates? The recent news that the GSEs have been purchasing mortgage-backed securities raised predictable questions about affordability and rate
AI, Cap Mkts Tools; Delinquencies Increasing; loanDepot Case Ethics Motion; Bill Dawley Interview
Will rates impact the latest MBA origination forecast of $2.2 trillion next year? Sure, although… The Federal Reserve has cut overnight rates, but longer-term rates (like 15- and 30-year mortgages) have done little or have gone up. Recently news came out that Freddie and Fannie are buying securities that they produce. If GM is buying its own cars, should its stock price go up, or does the price of its cars go up? Do GSE MBS purchases really move rates? The recent news that the GSEs have been purchasing mortgage-backed securities raised predictable questions about affordability and rate
23rd December, 25
GDP Reaction a Prime Example of Holiday Distortion
We've spent the past several days reiterating and lamenting the onset of the holiday trading doldrums--a time of year that sees vastly lower volumes/liquidity/participation, and thus runs the risk of volatility that's more random and larger than it otherwise would be. Now this morning, GDP came in much higher than expected and bonds are selling off somewhat sharply. Rather than fly in the face of the holiday trading environment realities, this is actually a prime example. The best evidence for this is the discrepancy between the size of the movement in bonds and the associated volume. Simply
GDP Reaction a Prime Example of Holiday Distortion
We've spent the past several days reiterating and lamenting the onset of the holiday trading doldrums--a time of year that sees vastly lower volumes/liquidity/participation, and thus runs the risk of volatility that's more random and larger than it otherwise would be. Now this morning, GDP came in much higher than expected and bonds are selling off somewhat sharply. Rather than fly in the face of the holiday trading environment realities, this is actually a prime example. The best evidence for this is the discrepancy between the size of the movement in bonds and the associated volume. Simply
22nd December, 25
Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition
Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition Bonds came into the domestic session at slightly weaker levels and held mostly sideways for the entire day. There were no meaningful market movers in play, let alone any meaningful movement. Volume clocked in at the lowest non-holiday level of the year. NOTE: this week's analysis will be shorter and more basic than normal unless something interesting happens. Market Movement Recap 09:25 AM modestly weaker overnight and holding sideways so far. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2bps at 4.16 01:52 PM MBS still down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.8bps at
Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition
Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition Bonds came into the domestic session at slightly weaker levels and held mostly sideways for the entire day. There were no meaningful market movers in play, let alone any meaningful movement. Volume clocked in at the lowest non-holiday level of the year. NOTE: this week's analysis will be shorter and more basic than normal unless something interesting happens. Market Movement Recap 09:25 AM modestly weaker overnight and holding sideways so far. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2bps at 4.16 01:52 PM MBS still down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.8bps at
22nd December, 25
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Start Holiday-Shortened Week
Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday's levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged today. This keeps the average lender in the lower portion of the narrow range seen over the past 4 months. If rates manage to move noticeably lower from here, they'll be challenging the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Meaningful momentum may be hard to come by over the next 2 weeks. During that time, the bond market will be fully closed for 2 days, partially closed on 2 days, and much lighter in volume and participation for the rest of
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Start Holiday-Shortened Week
Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday's levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged today. This keeps the average lender in the lower portion of the narrow range seen over the past 4 months. If rates manage to move noticeably lower from here, they'll be challenging the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Meaningful momentum may be hard to come by over the next 2 weeks. During that time, the bond market will be fully closed for 2 days, partially closed on 2 days, and much lighter in volume and participation for the rest of
22nd December, 25
Transitions; Broker, HELOC Products; loanDepot LO Comp Case Ethics Question; Dive Into Data
As we approach the end of the year, we’re seeing the usual interest in other opportunities, especially if pipelines aren’t full or management is dealing with people “aging out.” I received this note: “Rob, I need a very targeted approach to finding a new CFO, as my current one is retiring. Know anyone who can help?” I do indeed. You can start with Paul Conway. The industry has seen its fair share of mergers and acquisitions, none of which is expected to cease in 2026. Of course, a big item is keeping the LOs or AEs together after a merger or acquisition, on top of watching for
Transitions; Broker, HELOC Products; loanDepot LO Comp Case Ethics Question; Dive Into Data
As we approach the end of the year, we’re seeing the usual interest in other opportunities, especially if pipelines aren’t full or management is dealing with people “aging out.” I received this note: “Rob, I need a very targeted approach to finding a new CFO, as my current one is retiring. Know anyone who can help?” I do indeed. You can start with Paul Conway. The industry has seen its fair share of mergers and acquisitions, none of which is expected to cease in 2026. Of course, a big item is keeping the LOs or AEs together after a merger or acquisition, on top of watching for
22nd December, 25
Range-Bound Cruise Control
2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/liquidity that any apparently significant shifts would be taken with a grain of salt anyway. Even as we look back over the past 4 months, we see a persistence of the very narrow 4.00-4.20 range in 10yr yields. The past 3 weeks have been especially narrow. While the recent micro range in 10s is on the high side of the broader range, this has more to do with shifts in the yield curve. For instance, 2yr yields are hugging the lower end of their 4-month
Range-Bound Cruise Control
2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/liquidity that any apparently significant shifts would be taken with a grain of salt anyway. Even as we look back over the past 4 months, we see a persistence of the very narrow 4.00-4.20 range in 10yr yields. The past 3 weeks have been especially narrow. While the recent micro range in 10s is on the high side of the broader range, this has more to do with shifts in the yield curve. For instance, 2yr yields are hugging the lower end of their 4-month
19th December, 25
Bond Market in Holiday Mode
Bond Market in Holiday Mode Holiday mode is impossible to clearly define when it comes to its impact on the bond market. We know it when we see it, and we saw it today. Bonds paid no attention to econ data no matter how much it may seem that the 10am Consumer Sentiment numbers had an impact. Movement was minimal and not visibly tied to any other motivation. And as we already discussed this morning, Japan's rate hike was a non-event. Holiday trading randomness will get worse over the next 2 weeks before it improves in early January. Econ Data / Events Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 52.9 vs 53.4 f'
Bond Market in Holiday Mode
Bond Market in Holiday Mode Holiday mode is impossible to clearly define when it comes to its impact on the bond market. We know it when we see it, and we saw it today. Bonds paid no attention to econ data no matter how much it may seem that the 10am Consumer Sentiment numbers had an impact. Movement was minimal and not visibly tied to any other motivation. And as we already discussed this morning, Japan's rate hike was a non-event. Holiday trading randomness will get worse over the next 2 weeks before it improves in early January. Econ Data / Events Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 52.9 vs 53.4 f'