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14th August, 26
Existing-Home Sales Ease Slightly, Remain Above Year-Ago Levels
Existing-home sales remained relatively stable in July despite elevated mortgage rates, with activity declining modestly from June while remaining above year-ago levels. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, sales fell 1.7% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million , but were 0.7% higher than in July 2025. “Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He noted that year-to-date sales are up 2.4% and suggested that the housing market could see
Existing-Home Sales Ease Slightly, Remain Above Year-Ago Levels
Existing-home sales remained relatively stable in July despite elevated mortgage rates, with activity declining modestly from June while remaining above year-ago levels. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, sales fell 1.7% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million , but were 0.7% higher than in July 2025. “Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He noted that year-to-date sales are up 2.4% and suggested that the housing market could see
14th August, 26
As Expected, Mortgage Apps Bounce in Response to Rate Reversal
Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as a moderate decline in mortgage rates provided some relief for both homebuyers and homeowners considering a refinance. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 3.6% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 7. Purchase applications increased 3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, but remained 1% below the same week one year ago. Borrowing costs remain elevated and continue to weigh on affordability and buyer demand. Refinance activity also improved, with the
As Expected, Mortgage Apps Bounce in Response to Rate Reversal
Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as a moderate decline in mortgage rates provided some relief for both homebuyers and homeowners considering a refinance. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 3.6% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 7. Purchase applications increased 3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, but remained 1% below the same week one year ago. Borrowing costs remain elevated and continue to weigh on affordability and buyer demand. Refinance activity also improved, with the
14th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to End The Week
First, the bad news: mortgage rates ended the day just a hair higher compared to Thursday, but the change was so small that many borrowers will see little--if any--difference in pricing. Now the good news: apart from yesterday afternoon, today's rates would still be the lowest in 4 weeks (i.e. you'd have to go back to July 17th to see anything lower). Lastly, some news that's neither good nor bad, but simply a bit confusing. Today's higher rates followed this morning's Retail Sales report which came in much weaker than expected. Conventional wisdom would have suggested that weaker data
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to End The Week
First, the bad news: mortgage rates ended the day just a hair higher compared to Thursday, but the change was so small that many borrowers will see little--if any--difference in pricing. Now the good news: apart from yesterday afternoon, today's rates would still be the lowest in 4 weeks (i.e. you'd have to go back to July 17th to see anything lower). Lastly, some news that's neither good nor bad, but simply a bit confusing. Today's higher rates followed this morning's Retail Sales report which came in much weaker than expected. Conventional wisdom would have suggested that weaker data
14th August, 26
Wholesale Lender, POS, Mortgage Intelligence Tools; Non-Agency Trends: Who's Doing What?
If you think that profit per loan, or gain per unit, is based purely on size, think about this short video. “Profit” can also be a personal measure in terms of income versus expenses. Owning a home is all about having a job and spending less than you earn. Bankrate’s 2025 Wage to Inflation Index revealed that prices rose 23 percent since the start of 2021 while wages were up a cumulative 22 percent. This is why many households feel like they’re falling behind, even if they’re making more money, not even looking at the current prices for gas or steak. For lenders interested in vendor
Wholesale Lender, POS, Mortgage Intelligence Tools; Non-Agency Trends: Who's Doing What?
If you think that profit per loan, or gain per unit, is based purely on size, think about this short video. “Profit” can also be a personal measure in terms of income versus expenses. Owning a home is all about having a job and spending less than you earn. Bankrate’s 2025 Wage to Inflation Index revealed that prices rose 23 percent since the start of 2021 while wages were up a cumulative 22 percent. This is why many households feel like they’re falling behind, even if they’re making more money, not even looking at the current prices for gas or steak. For lenders interested in vendor
14th August, 26
Good Luck Making Sense of Retail Sales Reaction
Based on a few research papers that have attempted to quantify the impact of various economic reports as well as the general consensus among economic calendar purveyors, Retail Sales is allegedly a top tier market mover. In fact, a somewhat recent attempt by CME to rank econ data has in 5th place ahead of CPI, PPI, and PCE. But in our experience, it is a report that has decent potential to cause market movement only when there's an open question as to the health of the economy. It is also easy for the market to look past when there are temporary factors in play. Fuel price volatility
Good Luck Making Sense of Retail Sales Reaction
Based on a few research papers that have attempted to quantify the impact of various economic reports as well as the general consensus among economic calendar purveyors, Retail Sales is allegedly a top tier market mover. In fact, a somewhat recent attempt by CME to rank econ data has in 5th place ahead of CPI, PPI, and PCE. But in our experience, it is a report that has decent potential to cause market movement only when there's an open question as to the health of the economy. It is also easy for the market to look past when there are temporary factors in play. Fuel price volatility
13th August, 26
Solid Data-Driven Gains
Solid Data-Driven Gains Thursday was a fairly straightforward session for bonds. Yields fell modestly overnight in response to slightly lower oil prices and then more forcefully after the cooler-than-expected PPI data. Mid-day fuel price volatility caused a slight pull-back, but not enough to undo a reasonably robust rally by the close. If there's a "yeah but," it's that yields remain broadly sideways near long-term highs and were unable to challenge last week's lows. Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/m (Jul) 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev Core PPI y/y (Jul) 4.2% vs 4.2% f'cast, 4.7% prev Jobless
Solid Data-Driven Gains
Solid Data-Driven Gains Thursday was a fairly straightforward session for bonds. Yields fell modestly overnight in response to slightly lower oil prices and then more forcefully after the cooler-than-expected PPI data. Mid-day fuel price volatility caused a slight pull-back, but not enough to undo a reasonably robust rally by the close. If there's a "yeah but," it's that yields remain broadly sideways near long-term highs and were unable to challenge last week's lows. Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/m (Jul) 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev Core PPI y/y (Jul) 4.2% vs 4.2% f'cast, 4.7% prev Jobless
13th August, 26
Lowest Mortgage Rates in Nearly 4 Weeks
Mortgage rates dropped noticeably on Thursday on a combination of lower oil prices and a lower inflation reading via the Producer Price Index (PPI). Rates are driven by bonds and bonds are highly responsive to the outlook for inflation and the economy. The Iran war caused inflation implications to spike and the periodic relief in fuel prices has coincided with bond market improvement (and lower rates). The official inflation data is just another form of the same benefit. Fuel prices are just one aspect of inflation--albeit a critical one, but they're more of a leading indicator. In contrast,
Lowest Mortgage Rates in Nearly 4 Weeks
Mortgage rates dropped noticeably on Thursday on a combination of lower oil prices and a lower inflation reading via the Producer Price Index (PPI). Rates are driven by bonds and bonds are highly responsive to the outlook for inflation and the economy. The Iran war caused inflation implications to spike and the periodic relief in fuel prices has coincided with bond market improvement (and lower rates). The official inflation data is just another form of the same benefit. Fuel prices are just one aspect of inflation--albeit a critical one, but they're more of a leading indicator. In contrast,
13th August, 26
Home Buyer Aid, eClosing, Marketing tools; Texas Insurance Study; Spec Pool Price Volatility
Innovation, compliance, and affordability were key themes at this week’s Western Secondary. At the state level, for example, Kinder Institute report shows homeowners insurance has become a growing barrier to housing affordability across Texas. As Texas leaders search for ways to rein in soaring homeowner insurance costs, new research suggests premiums are playing an increasingly important role in housing affordability across the state. When homeowners’ insurance is factored into the cost of homeownership, nearly two-thirds of Texas households can no longer afford the median-priced home in
Home Buyer Aid, eClosing, Marketing tools; Texas Insurance Study; Spec Pool Price Volatility
Innovation, compliance, and affordability were key themes at this week’s Western Secondary. At the state level, for example, Kinder Institute report shows homeowners insurance has become a growing barrier to housing affordability across Texas. As Texas leaders search for ways to rein in soaring homeowner insurance costs, new research suggests premiums are playing an increasingly important role in housing affordability across the state. When homeowners’ insurance is factored into the cost of homeownership, nearly two-thirds of Texas households can no longer afford the median-priced home in
13th August, 26
Thank You PPI
If nothing else, this morning offers confirmation of just how nervous the market is about inflation. The producer price index barely beat its forecast (in fact y/y CORE PPI was on the screws), but this was enough for bonds to add on to modest overnight gains in a modestly enthusiastic way. We almost never see this much of a reaction to this small of a beat/miss in PPI. The other consideration is that oil has been trending lower since 3am, and bonds stayed almost perfectly flat from 4am-8:30am, but this should only be viewed as a small supporting actor in this morning's rally. Stocks
Thank You PPI
If nothing else, this morning offers confirmation of just how nervous the market is about inflation. The producer price index barely beat its forecast (in fact y/y CORE PPI was on the screws), but this was enough for bonds to add on to modest overnight gains in a modestly enthusiastic way. We almost never see this much of a reaction to this small of a beat/miss in PPI. The other consideration is that oil has been trending lower since 3am, and bonds stayed almost perfectly flat from 4am-8:30am, but this should only be viewed as a small supporting actor in this morning's rally. Stocks
12th August, 26
Bonds End Flat After Front-Running The Decent Data
Bonds End Flat After Front-Running The Decent Data We absolutely hate the term "front-running" because it can be perceived as connoting some measure of clairvoyance on the part of the bond market. To be clear, that's not the contention here. Rather, we noted that bonds were trading somewhat optimistically yesterday in that they outperformed their typical correlation with oil prices. That theme continued overnight and promptly ended when CPI came out right in line with forecasts. There are several ways to reconcile this turn of events, but one of the easiest is to speculate that traders indeed
Bonds End Flat After Front-Running The Decent Data
Bonds End Flat After Front-Running The Decent Data We absolutely hate the term "front-running" because it can be perceived as connoting some measure of clairvoyance on the part of the bond market. To be clear, that's not the contention here. Rather, we noted that bonds were trading somewhat optimistically yesterday in that they outperformed their typical correlation with oil prices. That theme continued overnight and promptly ended when CPI came out right in line with forecasts. There are several ways to reconcile this turn of events, but one of the easiest is to speculate that traders indeed