Some Signs of Resilience But It's Still Anyone's Game After several consecutive business days of abject unpleasantness in the bond/mortgage market, Tuesday finally offered a modest consolation. During domestic trading hours, every attempt to push 10yr yields over 5% was met with a supportive bounce--presumably from value buyers targeting 5% as a good entry point to own 10yr notes for investment purposes. We wouldn't read too much into this just yet. It is a defensible conclusion today (especially in light of oil prices surging over to over $106), but Wednesday's Fed reaction could completely…
Mortgage rates moved higher for the 6th day in a row on Tuesday and to the highest levels since January, 2025. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 7.22% and the most prevalently-quoted top-tier rate is 7.25%. Over the past 6 days, the average is up 0.33%, which is is the most abrupt jump since October 2024. At least some of the recent volatility is due to the implications of recent economic data and oil price implications on Fed policy. Tomorrow brings the next regularly-scheduled Fed announcement. Markets are heavily betting that the Fed hikes rates at this meeting. Despite…
Today we’re in Dallas for the Loan Vision Innovation Conference 2026, and LV recently rolled out its AI accounting software Luna. The CEOs, CFOs, and Controllers here are focused on measuring, analyzing, and interpreting data, including volume. MCT's September Indices Report reflects a total lock volume decline month over month in August, with purchase and rate/term refinances both pulling back. (Cash out refinances were the lone category to move higher.) And according to Curinos proprietary application index, August 2026 funded mortgage volume decreased 2 percent Y-o-Y and decreased 9…
With no meaningful econ data on tap today and no high stakes events, bonds are left to watch news headlines and attend to last-minute positioning goals before tomorrow's Fed announcement. There's a bit more of a disconnect between oil prices and bond yields than normal today. Earlier in the overnight session, yields actually led the way higher. In the past hour, however, oil is spiking and yields are trying to hold under yesterday's domestic session highs. This might (MIGHT!) speak to some level of exhaustion among sellers in the long end of the curve, or some value buyers who like the…
Decent Mid-Day Recovery But No Change to Bigger Picture Monday wasn't too different from last Friday in that the bond market began the day with AM volatility that gave way to minimally changed yields by the close. The order was reversed, however, with the weaker trading in the AM and rally back to unchanged levels for the close. Another key difference was that the mid-day rally was clearly drew inspiration from measurable events (in this case, war-related newswires that helped oil prices recover most of the morning's increase. Shorter-dated yields underperformed as there was no meaningful…
On average, the top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate moved up to another new long-term high today of 7.17%. You'd have to go back to January, 2025 to see anything higher. That said, there's more variability than normal today depending on the lender. Bonds (which dictate rates) were at their weakest levels of the day right around the time most lenders publish mortgage rates for the first time (9:30-10:30am ET). Bonds improved after that following headlines that helped oil prices fall back to the lows of the day. A solid handful of lenders issued updates to mortgage rates, bringing them much…
Yes, the college game was amazing Saturday night here in Austin, but there’s also IMN’s HELOCs & Second Liens event. The markets know that it is a hot topic. Do “the markets” care about a $40 trillion U.S. deficit? Yes. Does any politician seem able to curb spending, or be elected to do it? Not really, and in fact over the weekend, House Speaker Johnson seems to have shifted other national priorities aside in favor of President Trump’s proposal to pay every adult $5,000 if the GOP proves victorious in November, at a cost of $1 trillion. “Rob, I’ve heard from politicians that the U.S.…
Selling continues to be the path of least resistance for the bond market. Open interest data from Treasury futures suggests Friday's "short-covering" assessment may not be the only story. Reason being: open interest moved HIGHER (it would be much easier to conclude short-covering drove the move if open interest was lower). The counterpoint is that new short positions in the afternoon could have merely offset the AM short-covering. Heading into the current week, bonds did their best to hold flat overnight but have been increasingly pressured by fuel prices and technicals. Oil is up about $4…
AM Rally Completely Erased By The Close This morning's paradoxical rally lasted 30 whole minutes. Bonds turned around at exactly 9am and proceeded to completely erase the AM gains. There were no compelling macro motivations for the reversal apart from a modest rise in oil prices. While oil price lows and highs perfectly matched bond yields in terms of timing, the bond selling was disproportionately larger. This is highly suggestive of short covering being a component of the morning rally. In other words, traders who had open bets on higher rates simply closed those positions quickly this…
Looked at in a vacuum, and up until the last few hours of the day, Friday was no better or worse than the average day over the past several months. Compared to yesterday morning's levels, the average lender was 0.01% higher--a small enough move to be effectively considered "unchanged." This expanded to 0.05% in the last few hours as multiple lenders increased rates. In terms of big-picture benchmarks, the increase officially brings rates to their highest levels since early 2025. To be clear, we were just barely lower than May 2025 levels yesterday. Now we're in line February 2025…
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