Light Volatility and Modest Gains Ahead of CPI Bonds were modestly stronger in the overnight session in a move that is easiest to attribute to ongoing supportive buying in response to recently higher yields in the long end of the market. Fed Funds Futures were also in play as implied Fed Funds tracked fairly well with 10yr yields in terms of movement. Oil prices did little to explain the AM gains, but correlated well with an insignificant pull-back between 8:30-10:00am ET. Afternoon comments from Williams (who only sees the need for 1 more rate hike and then no hikes in 2027) helped the short…
It was an uneventfully good day for mortgage rates. Unlike the average day over the past several weeks, there was minimal intraday volatility in the underlying bond market. This allowed the average lender to issue rates once this morning and avoid intraday rate changes. Fortunately, the overnight market movement was in our favor today as traders continued finding value in recently higher bond yields. Rates are based on the bond market where higher yields increasingly create demand among investors. In 2023, when the 10yr Treasury yield hit 5%, we saw a solid show of support from…
If you want privacy, you may not want to buy a new car: Many new cards share your data with third-party companies via technology. Here at the MBA National, tech is not only a popular topic, but, thanks to AddyAI, there is an Agentic registered “attendee” named Adele. The robot’s job is roaming the halls. Are you doing your “dream” job? They vary by country, by the way, and here’s a map. Some jobs are “unsung,” and one of the topics at the MMLA event in Michigan, the MBAC event in South Carolina, and here at “The National” in Chicago is how lenders need to focus on some of these roles as they…
Tuesday morning joins a fairly long list of trading days where overnight bond market movement cannot be cleanly connected to news headlines or econ data. With yields having recently pushed up to multi-decade highs, and Fed policy expectations constantly shifting, this will be an ongoing phenomenon. Over the past several sessions, there's definitely been some organic buying in longer-term bonds (i.e. investors concluding 10yr yields around 5.3% represent a good entry point). The overnight rally followed a shift in Fed rate expectations. Oil prices correlated but the timing was off when it…
Another Nice Round Trip For Bonds--Especially MBS Nothing new or interesting happened today in terms of underlying events, news, or data. But the price action itself was a different story. While the moves weren't extreme, it was nonetheless notable that bonds lost ground in a very intentional way this morning only to reverse course and make it back to positive territory by the close. Yields are still broadly sideways at long-term highs, but we now have a second straight day having closed near the week's best levels. MBS outperformed Treasuries a bit, and officially turned green by the…
Even though the underlying bond market is in slightly weaker shape today, mortgage rates ended up trickling just a bit lower than yesterday's latest levels. This can happen on occasions when there is a strong rally late in the previous day. Mortgage lenders don't end up passing along all of that improvement in rate sheets and some of them decide to wait for the following day to make the adjustments. In addition, this morning's slightly weaker bond market performance reversed course around 11am and paved the way for multiple lenders to adjust their rates lower over the past few hours.…
As Robbie and I prepare to head to Chicago this weekend for the “MBA National,” yesterday I was speaking with someone at the bar at Legs Inn in Northern Michigan. (Yeah, it’s somethin’.) We shouldn’t be afraid to talk about the economy, or politics, and I told her that I’ve been in capital markets for over 40 years and there are plenty of clever sayings about economics. One of them is, “The stock market is not the economy.” How good is the U.S. economy? You wouldn’t know it by stocks. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. writes, “U.S. equity market performance is increasingly being led by the…
After yesterday's nice comeback, here's how we're thinking about today. Fridays before 3-day weekends: frequently see a move to the sidelines among certain investors. Traders who were tactically long bonds over the past 2 days could be booking profit. Translation: some of the strength over the past 2 days could turn to weakness for purely mechanical reasons. frequently see less determination to aggressively pursue new trading ideas in the absence of compelling econ data. often "don't count" when it comes to forming our view of prevailing short term trends. Bonds are starting out…
Yields "Plummet" to Best Level In... 4 trading days... All the way back on October 2nd (last Friday), intraday lows were 5.151%. In other words, today's rally was definitely nice and definitely worth discussing, but if we're witnessing the inception of anything legitimately exciting here, it's in an embryonic stage as of today. 10yr yields would need to be below 5.0% just over a month from now to confirm a truly big shift. As for drivers, we'd have a hard time reconciling today's friendly reversal without giving some credit to investors "buying the dip" in bond prices (or the supportive…
Mortgage rates moved lower today at their fastest pace in 3 months with the average top-tier 30yr fixed scenario ultimately falling 0.09%. There were thrills and chills along the way as well. The day actually began with a 0.01% INCREASE versus yesterday's latest levels. This highlights a unique aspect of our rate index which has the ability to change more than once per day in response to mortgage lenders making intraday updates to their rate offerings. In other words, almost every lender lowered their rates today--many of them more than once. As has often been the case lately, the…
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