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1st December, 25
Complete Silence After AM Volatility
Complete Silence After AM Volatility Bonds were mostly flat overnight before a sharp sell-off from 8am through 10am ET. After that, momentum went flat again--especially the last 4 hours of trading. No one is still debating whether or not the AM sell-off was due to Japan's central bank news or a post-holiday return to reality. Yields are back in the pre-Thanksgiving range and ready to respond to this week's bigger-ticket econ reports. Econ Data / Events ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov) 44.0 vs -- f'cast, 46.0 prev ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 48.2 vs 48.6 f'cast, 48.7 prev ISM Mfg
Complete Silence After AM Volatility
Complete Silence After AM Volatility Bonds were mostly flat overnight before a sharp sell-off from 8am through 10am ET. After that, momentum went flat again--especially the last 4 hours of trading. No one is still debating whether or not the AM sell-off was due to Japan's central bank news or a post-holiday return to reality. Yields are back in the pre-Thanksgiving range and ready to respond to this week's bigger-ticket econ reports. Econ Data / Events ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov) 44.0 vs -- f'cast, 46.0 prev ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 48.2 vs 48.6 f'cast, 48.7 prev ISM Mfg
1st December, 25
Mortgage Rates Erase Last Week's Gains
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and the bond market is prone to erratic behavior on major holiday weeks. One of the more common patterns is for the holiday week to see a noticeable departure from a prevailing trend only to return to that trend in the following week. That's exactly what we're seeing on the first day of the new week. The prevailing trend saw rates hold a narrow, sideways range with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate in the 6.3s. Last week saw that average drop to 6.20% and now today, we're right back up to 6.31%. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] In the coming days,
Mortgage Rates Erase Last Week's Gains
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and the bond market is prone to erratic behavior on major holiday weeks. One of the more common patterns is for the holiday week to see a noticeable departure from a prevailing trend only to return to that trend in the following week. That's exactly what we're seeing on the first day of the new week. The prevailing trend saw rates hold a narrow, sideways range with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate in the 6.3s. Last week saw that average drop to 6.20% and now today, we're right back up to 6.31%. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] In the coming days,
1st December, 25
DSCR, Non-QM, FHA Products; AI, Broker, Borrower-Focused Webinars; STRATMOR on 2026 Growth Areas
A buddy from Kentucky wrote to me, saying, “Statistics show that the average person has sex 89 times per year. Looks like I'm in for a pretty wild December.” November is behind us, and with it all the noise about President Trump’s 50-year mortgage proposal. Capital markets personnel in the mortgage biz don’t like thinking about how long it would take to create a market for 50-year mortgages, nor do they like volatility, but traders do. The mood among traders has swiftly improved, chiefly due to economic data that has supported an interest rate cut in December. The Federal Reserve’s
DSCR, Non-QM, FHA Products; AI, Broker, Borrower-Focused Webinars; STRATMOR on 2026 Growth Areas
A buddy from Kentucky wrote to me, saying, “Statistics show that the average person has sex 89 times per year. Looks like I'm in for a pretty wild December.” November is behind us, and with it all the noise about President Trump’s 50-year mortgage proposal. Capital markets personnel in the mortgage biz don’t like thinking about how long it would take to create a market for 50-year mortgages, nor do they like volatility, but traders do. The mood among traders has swiftly improved, chiefly due to economic data that has supported an interest rate cut in December. The Federal Reserve’s
1st December, 25
Breaking Down Early Weakness. Is It Japan?
Bonds are sharply weaker to begin the new week and the new month. This is the first (and probably best) clue as to the nature of this morning's market movement. Thanksgiving weeks are prone to random volatility and today's selling basically erases the entirety of last week's movement. Then there's the Bank of Japan's comments on considering rate hikes at the next meeting. Past examples of policy shifts in Japan are burned into the memory of US markets as the source of several large, surprising reactions in bonds. Today's example is getting attention because there's nothing more obvious to
Breaking Down Early Weakness. Is It Japan?
Bonds are sharply weaker to begin the new week and the new month. This is the first (and probably best) clue as to the nature of this morning's market movement. Thanksgiving weeks are prone to random volatility and today's selling basically erases the entirety of last week's movement. Then there's the Bank of Japan's comments on considering rate hikes at the next meeting. Past examples of policy shifts in Japan are burned into the memory of US markets as the source of several large, surprising reactions in bonds. Today's example is getting attention because there's nothing more obvious to
28th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Unchanged Versus Wednesday
As is most often the case, the Friday after Thanksgiving added nothing interesting to mortgage rate momentum. The average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate is exactly where it was on Wednesday. The underlying bond market closes early today, but will be fully open next week. At that point, we're likely to see some volatility return for rates, depending on the results of economic reports.
Mortgage Rates Unchanged Versus Wednesday
As is most often the case, the Friday after Thanksgiving added nothing interesting to mortgage rate momentum. The average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate is exactly where it was on Wednesday. The underlying bond market closes early today, but will be fully open next week. At that point, we're likely to see some volatility return for rates, depending on the results of economic reports.
28th November, 25
Open But Not Really Open
Open But Not Really Open This is just a reminder that the Friday after Thanksgiving is the most useless and inconsequential trading day of the year. In very rare cases, movement can be tied to actual events/data, but that's not the case today. We do not publish detailed commentary on this particular Friday unless something interesting is happening. We're only publishing this to let you know we're watching and still not seeing anything interesting. Market Movement Recap 10:03 AM sideways overnight and modestly weaker so far. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.7bps
Open But Not Really Open
Open But Not Really Open This is just a reminder that the Friday after Thanksgiving is the most useless and inconsequential trading day of the year. In very rare cases, movement can be tied to actual events/data, but that's not the case today. We do not publish detailed commentary on this particular Friday unless something interesting is happening. We're only publishing this to let you know we're watching and still not seeing anything interesting. Market Movement Recap 10:03 AM sideways overnight and modestly weaker so far. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.7bps
28th November, 25
Coast to Coast Jobs; Hodge Podge of Economic News; Improved Pull Through = Lower Cost Per Loan
When did our business start with the catchy slogans? Stay alive in ’25? Stay in the mix in ’26. It’ll be heaven in ’27. How about, “Try to earn a little revenue every day, day after day.”? Smart mortgage bankers look at units, not dollar volumes. If an LO does $5 million in a month, is that one $5 million loan or ten $500,000 loans? And if your cost per loan is $11,000, on a $5 million loan that is good, since the monthly hit is $11,000, but on the ten loans it would be $110,000. Cost per loan… what are you trying to do to improve your pull through, and not spending money on
Coast to Coast Jobs; Hodge Podge of Economic News; Improved Pull Through = Lower Cost Per Loan
When did our business start with the catchy slogans? Stay alive in ’25? Stay in the mix in ’26. It’ll be heaven in ’27. How about, “Try to earn a little revenue every day, day after day.”? Smart mortgage bankers look at units, not dollar volumes. If an LO does $5 million in a month, is that one $5 million loan or ten $500,000 loans? And if your cost per loan is $11,000, on a $5 million loan that is good, since the monthly hit is $11,000, but on the ten loans it would be $110,000. Cost per loan… what are you trying to do to improve your pull through, and not spending money on
26th November, 25
Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence
Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence Although there was a brief negative reaction to this morning's economic data, the impact was minimal. Random holiday-week volatility accounted for bigger swings, but those swings ultimately canceled each other out. By the 3pm close, bonds were close enough to unchanged levels. That makes today truly forgettable in the bigger picture. Trading doesn't get real/serious again until December. NOTE: Friday is technically open until 2pm ET, but as is our custom, we will only publish commentary on an "as-needed" basis (i.e. if the movement is minimal
Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence
Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence Although there was a brief negative reaction to this morning's economic data, the impact was minimal. Random holiday-week volatility accounted for bigger swings, but those swings ultimately canceled each other out. By the 3pm close, bonds were close enough to unchanged levels. That makes today truly forgettable in the bigger picture. Trading doesn't get real/serious again until December. NOTE: Friday is technically open until 2pm ET, but as is our custom, we will only publish commentary on an "as-needed" basis (i.e. if the movement is minimal
26th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher, But Remain Near Long-Term Lows
Wednesday was far less eventful than the first two days of the week as far as mortgage rates were concerned. The average lender raised rates just a hair, but apart from yesterday, these are the lowest levels in a month and very close to the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Bond markets and mortgage lenders will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. While Friday is technically open, 9 times out of 10, it may as well not be. In other words, the Friday after Thanksgiving rarely sees any meaningful movement in mortgage rates or the underlying bond market.
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher, But Remain Near Long-Term Lows
Wednesday was far less eventful than the first two days of the week as far as mortgage rates were concerned. The average lender raised rates just a hair, but apart from yesterday, these are the lowest levels in a month and very close to the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Bond markets and mortgage lenders will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. While Friday is technically open, 9 times out of 10, it may as well not be. In other words, the Friday after Thanksgiving rarely sees any meaningful movement in mortgage rates or the underlying bond market.
26th November, 25
Credit Union Compliance, HELOC Products; Conventional Conforming Loan Limits and Other Fannie/Freddie News
The new phone books are here, the new phone books are here! Oh, wait a minute. The new conventional conforming loan limits are here! The new conventional conforming loan limits are here! True, lenders that are entirely focused on non-Agency products like non-QM (without many of the loan level price adjustments or gfees) may not care too much, but for most, Freddie Mac’s and Fannie Mae’s changes are followed closely. For 2026 we’re up from 2025’s $806,500 to $832,750. This beats the $819,000 by about $13k that many lenders and investors moved to in late September/early October. They can
Credit Union Compliance, HELOC Products; Conventional Conforming Loan Limits and Other Fannie/Freddie News
The new phone books are here, the new phone books are here! Oh, wait a minute. The new conventional conforming loan limits are here! The new conventional conforming loan limits are here! True, lenders that are entirely focused on non-Agency products like non-QM (without many of the loan level price adjustments or gfees) may not care too much, but for most, Freddie Mac’s and Fannie Mae’s changes are followed closely. For 2026 we’re up from 2025’s $806,500 to $832,750. This beats the $819,000 by about $13k that many lenders and investors moved to in late September/early October. They can