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8th July, 26
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce Bonds officially closed at the highest yields in more than a month. At one point just before the noon hour, the 10yr was just over 4.59, but ultimately moved back to 4.56. That's only about 1bp higher than yesterday's latest levels (which feels like a win compared to the mid-day trend). Oil prices and bond yields remain in a tight correlation, and once again, war-related headlines set the tone. The most notable among them was a Trump comment regarding the ceasefire being cancelled/over. As was frequently the case in the run-up
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce
More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce Bonds officially closed at the highest yields in more than a month. At one point just before the noon hour, the 10yr was just over 4.59, but ultimately moved back to 4.56. That's only about 1bp higher than yesterday's latest levels (which feels like a win compared to the mid-day trend). Oil prices and bond yields remain in a tight correlation, and once again, war-related headlines set the tone. The most notable among them was a Trump comment regarding the ceasefire being cancelled/over. As was frequently the case in the run-up
8th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Back Up Near 10-Month Highs
Mortgage rates have moved higher at a moderate pace over the past 2 days as tensions between The U.S. and Iran see a resurgence. As far as the underlying bond market is concerned, most of the damage was done yesterday. But today's news added emphasis when Trump declared the ceasefire to be over. Rates are based on bonds, but mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day and only change them if bonds make a big enough intraday move. That meant the average lender had to play some catch-up with bond market movement this morning. All that to say that bonds didn't have nearly as
Mortgage Rates Back Up Near 10-Month Highs
Mortgage rates have moved higher at a moderate pace over the past 2 days as tensions between The U.S. and Iran see a resurgence. As far as the underlying bond market is concerned, most of the damage was done yesterday. But today's news added emphasis when Trump declared the ceasefire to be over. Rates are based on bonds, but mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day and only change them if bonds make a big enough intraday move. That meant the average lender had to play some catch-up with bond market movement this morning. All that to say that bonds didn't have nearly as
8th July, 26
AI, AMC, Analytic, Equity, Correspondent Products; Lennar's Lawsuit; Oil Hits Rates (Again)
STRATMOR Group has opened participation for its 2026 Compensation Connection® Study, providing mortgage-specific insights into compensation components, incentive plan structures, compensation percentiles, and more. (Compensation Connection focuses exclusively on mortgage banking, with benchmark comparisons by lender type, size, region, and national averages, plus three-year trending for many metrics. This year's study includes four modules: Retail Sales, Consumer Direct Sales, Fulfillment, and Executive Management. Return your submissions to compconnection@stratmorgroup.com by August 15.)
AI, AMC, Analytic, Equity, Correspondent Products; Lennar's Lawsuit; Oil Hits Rates (Again)
STRATMOR Group has opened participation for its 2026 Compensation Connection® Study, providing mortgage-specific insights into compensation components, incentive plan structures, compensation percentiles, and more. (Compensation Connection focuses exclusively on mortgage banking, with benchmark comparisons by lender type, size, region, and national averages, plus three-year trending for many metrics. This year's study includes four modules: Retail Sales, Consumer Direct Sales, Fulfillment, and Executive Management. Return your submissions to compconnection@stratmorgroup.com by August 15.)
8th July, 26
Only Modestly Weaker After Trump Says Ceasefire is Over
Iran-related headlines have jumped back to the realm of relevance this week and Wednesday morning's overnight session kicked things up another notch. Trump declared the ceasefire to be over and is currently saying peace deal negotiations may not even continue. Markets definitely reacted with oil and Treasury yields spiking overnight. The interesting part is the magnitude of the spike. It was roughly 4bps in terms of 10yr yields and almost half those losses were recovered over the following 2 hours. Oil prices rose roughly $3 and have dropped almost $2 since the initial spike. Bottom line:
Only Modestly Weaker After Trump Says Ceasefire is Over
Iran-related headlines have jumped back to the realm of relevance this week and Wednesday morning's overnight session kicked things up another notch. Trump declared the ceasefire to be over and is currently saying peace deal negotiations may not even continue. Markets definitely reacted with oil and Treasury yields spiking overnight. The interesting part is the magnitude of the spike. It was roughly 4bps in terms of 10yr yields and almost half those losses were recovered over the following 2 hours. Oil prices rose roughly $3 and have dropped almost $2 since the initial spike. Bottom line:
7th July, 26
Hormuz Back in The News
Hormuz Back in The News Iran has attacked a few cargo ships recently and there are repercussions. The peace deal looks to be on shakier ground over the past 24 hours with both sides talking tough on the internet. Just before 3pm, the U.S. referred to Iran's actions as unacceptable and revoked the license that allowed the sale of Iranian oil. Oil prices were higher all day, but especially after that news. Bond yields have been quick to reconnect with their old flame, exhibiting strong correlation over the past 24 hours. The net effect by 3:10pm was a 6.6bp rise in 10yr yields (4.
Hormuz Back in The News
Hormuz Back in The News Iran has attacked a few cargo ships recently and there are repercussions. The peace deal looks to be on shakier ground over the past 24 hours with both sides talking tough on the internet. Just before 3pm, the U.S. referred to Iran's actions as unacceptable and revoked the license that allowed the sale of Iranian oil. Oil prices were higher all day, but especially after that news. Bond yields have been quick to reconnect with their old flame, exhibiting strong correlation over the past 24 hours. The net effect by 3:10pm was a 6.6bp rise in 10yr yields (4.
7th July, 26
Rates Move Back Up With Oil Prices
It's been a while since oil prices were the focal point of the interest rate conversation, but that recently familiar dynamic is once again playing out. The U.S./Iran peace deal is on increasingly shaky ground and the ability for oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz has been increasingly compromised over the past 24 hours. Most recently, headlines suggest the U.S. is withdrawing authorization for Iran to export oil after Iran's recent attacks on cargo vessels. Rising oil prices imply higher inflation. Higher inflation leads to higher rates, all else equal. At the time of this article, the
Rates Move Back Up With Oil Prices
It's been a while since oil prices were the focal point of the interest rate conversation, but that recently familiar dynamic is once again playing out. The U.S./Iran peace deal is on increasingly shaky ground and the ability for oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz has been increasingly compromised over the past 24 hours. Most recently, headlines suggest the U.S. is withdrawing authorization for Iran to export oil after Iran's recent attacks on cargo vessels. Rising oil prices imply higher inflation. Higher inflation leads to higher rates, all else equal. At the time of this article, the
7th July, 26
Servicing, Processing Support, AI Tools ; Lenders Focusing on Consumers; Thoughts on UAD 3.6
During a recent trip overseas, I spoke to a banker who stated, “Technology doesn’t stop at the border.” True. The days of writing out this Commentary or taking an app on a yellow pad of paper are long gone. Today has the STRATMOR Group’s Advisory Angle at 11AM PT. STRATMOR Senior Partners Garth Graham and Nicole Yung explore the latest findings from STRATMOR's Technology Insight Digital Innovations study. The conversation examines where lenders are seeing the greatest return on digital investments, the barriers slowing adoption, and the technologies shaping the next phase of innovation
Servicing, Processing Support, AI Tools ; Lenders Focusing on Consumers; Thoughts on UAD 3.6
During a recent trip overseas, I spoke to a banker who stated, “Technology doesn’t stop at the border.” True. The days of writing out this Commentary or taking an app on a yellow pad of paper are long gone. Today has the STRATMOR Group’s Advisory Angle at 11AM PT. STRATMOR Senior Partners Garth Graham and Nicole Yung explore the latest findings from STRATMOR's Technology Insight Digital Innovations study. The conversation examines where lenders are seeing the greatest return on digital investments, the barriers slowing adoption, and the technologies shaping the next phase of innovation
7th July, 26
Modest Pressure, Light Data
From summertime Monday to summertime Tuesday... Yesterday's modest strength is now erased by today's modest weakness. In both cases, the movement is too small to worry about obvious catalysts, though some may assume that there's an oil price component following Iran's attacks on commercial ships in The Strait. A separate consideration would be Amazon filing for a potentially large corporate bond offering (why do we care?). But even if these things are moving markets, they're not very good at it. The same can be said for essentially all of the line items on the econ calendar today
Modest Pressure, Light Data
From summertime Monday to summertime Tuesday... Yesterday's modest strength is now erased by today's modest weakness. In both cases, the movement is too small to worry about obvious catalysts, though some may assume that there's an oil price component following Iran's attacks on commercial ships in The Strait. A separate consideration would be Amazon filing for a potentially large corporate bond offering (why do we care?). But even if these things are moving markets, they're not very good at it. The same can be said for essentially all of the line items on the econ calendar today
6th July, 26
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Uneventful Summertime Monday Volume and--sometimes--volatility can be generally lower in the middle of the summertime months as fewer traders are consistently at bond desks--especially on days adjacent to 3-day holiday weekends. Today was a classic example. Bonds barely budged and volume is on track for one of the lightest full trading days of the year. In many ways, today was simply a 4th weekend day and we'll know more about how bonds are feeling on Tuesday. But at the very least, it's somewhat constructive to be starting the week without any extension of last week's selling pressure. Econ
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Uneventful Summertime Monday Volume and--sometimes--volatility can be generally lower in the middle of the summertime months as fewer traders are consistently at bond desks--especially on days adjacent to 3-day holiday weekends. Today was a classic example. Bonds barely budged and volume is on track for one of the lightest full trading days of the year. In many ways, today was simply a 4th weekend day and we'll know more about how bonds are feeling on Tuesday. But at the very least, it's somewhat constructive to be starting the week without any extension of last week's selling pressure. Econ
6th July, 26
Mortgage Rates Start New Week Flat
Volatility is always a risk surrounding 3 day holiday weekends when it comes to markets and mortgage rates, but this time around, things have been very calm. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained almost perfectly flat versus last Thursday with the MND index technically falling by 0.01%. This week's calendar of scheduled events is less consequential than last week's. After today, there is essentially no big-ticket economic data. In the bigger picture, 30yr fixed rates are near the center of their range over the past 6-7 weeks. Collectively, that range represents the highest levels
Mortgage Rates Start New Week Flat
Volatility is always a risk surrounding 3 day holiday weekends when it comes to markets and mortgage rates, but this time around, things have been very calm. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained almost perfectly flat versus last Thursday with the MND index technically falling by 0.01%. This week's calendar of scheduled events is less consequential than last week's. After today, there is essentially no big-ticket economic data. In the bigger picture, 30yr fixed rates are near the center of their range over the past 6-7 weeks. Collectively, that range represents the highest levels