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6th February, 26
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform It was an uneventful day when it comes to scheduled data/events, and also pretty boring for the bond market in general. Most of the market's volatility continues playing out in stocks, commodities, crypto, etc. The most notable development for our area of focus was the MBS outperformance. Specifically, MBS were up about 2 ticks (.06) in price in the 2pm hour while 5 and 10yr Treasuries were down at least 6 ticks (.19) in price. Some of the Treasury weakness could be viewed as an artificial byproduct of yesterday afternoon's Treasury-specific late
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform It was an uneventful day when it comes to scheduled data/events, and also pretty boring for the bond market in general. Most of the market's volatility continues playing out in stocks, commodities, crypto, etc. The most notable development for our area of focus was the MBS outperformance. Specifically, MBS were up about 2 ticks (.06) in price in the 2pm hour while 5 and 10yr Treasuries were down at least 6 ticks (.19) in price. Some of the Treasury weakness could be viewed as an artificial byproduct of yesterday afternoon's Treasury-specific late
6th February, 26
Mortgage Rates Match Lowest Levels in Over 2 Weeks
In the bigger picture, the past two and a half weeks have been marked by a very narrow range in the bond market. Because bonds dictate mortgage rates, the latter have also been in a narrow range with average top tier 30yr fixed rates of 6.15-6.20%. Yesterday's employment-related data helped bonds improve. Many lenders made mid-day improvements to mortgage rates yesterday, but there was enough of a tailwind that the average lender was lower again this morning--now in line with the lower boundary of the recent range. Next Wednesday's labor market data is a higher stakes event--one that
Mortgage Rates Match Lowest Levels in Over 2 Weeks
In the bigger picture, the past two and a half weeks have been marked by a very narrow range in the bond market. Because bonds dictate mortgage rates, the latter have also been in a narrow range with average top tier 30yr fixed rates of 6.15-6.20%. Yesterday's employment-related data helped bonds improve. Many lenders made mid-day improvements to mortgage rates yesterday, but there was enough of a tailwind that the average lender was lower again this morning--now in line with the lower boundary of the recent range. Next Wednesday's labor market data is a higher stakes event--one that
6th February, 26
Winter Weather Puts Purchase Applications on Ice
Mortgage application activity moved lower again last week, extending the pullback from January’s earlier burst of demand as weather disruptions and softening purchase activity weighed on overall volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications declined 8.9% for the week ending January 30. The Market Composite Index fell 8.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis, while rising 4% on an unadjusted basis, highlighting the continued volatility in weekly application data following a period of unusually strong activity earlier in the month. This week, purchase activity took
Winter Weather Puts Purchase Applications on Ice
Mortgage application activity moved lower again last week, extending the pullback from January’s earlier burst of demand as weather disruptions and softening purchase activity weighed on overall volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications declined 8.9% for the week ending January 30. The Market Composite Index fell 8.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis, while rising 4% on an unadjusted basis, highlighting the continued volatility in weekly application data following a period of unusually strong activity earlier in the month. This week, purchase activity took
6th February, 26
BBYS, Servicer Risk, Verification Tools; Non-Agency News; Why Mortgage Rates Are Sticky
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Truework is a comprehensive income and employment verification platform that fully replaces manual in-house waterfalls and provides mortgage lenders with a single automated solution to run their verification processes. With Truework, lenders see up to 50% cost savings on verifications while increasing speed, accuracy, and R&W relief. We also offer free pre-approvals to help you qualify borrowers faster—only pay when we complete a file. Trusted by 4 of the top 5 lenders in the U.S., Truework is built to deliver results. Learn more.
BBYS, Servicer Risk, Verification Tools; Non-Agency News; Why Mortgage Rates Are Sticky
Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Truework is a comprehensive income and employment verification platform that fully replaces manual in-house waterfalls and provides mortgage lenders with a single automated solution to run their verification processes. With Truework, lenders see up to 50% cost savings on verifications while increasing speed, accuracy, and R&W relief. We also offer free pre-approvals to help you qualify borrowers faster—only pay when we complete a file. Trusted by 4 of the top 5 lenders in the U.S., Truework is built to deliver results. Learn more.
6th February, 26
Waiting on Next Week's Data
Friday is the quietest day of the week in terms of scheduled econ data and events, with the relatively unimportant Consumer Sentiment being the only notable report. Bonds are roughly unchanged to start the session. Treasury yields are technically a few bps higher from yesterday's 5pm levels, but right in line with 3pm (what many would argue to be the proper time to mark daily closing levels in Treasuries). Thursday's trifecta of downbeat labor data piqued the market's interest in next week's big jobs report. But between now and then, Treasuries don't seem overly eager to re-enter the sub-4.20
Waiting on Next Week's Data
Friday is the quietest day of the week in terms of scheduled econ data and events, with the relatively unimportant Consumer Sentiment being the only notable report. Bonds are roughly unchanged to start the session. Treasury yields are technically a few bps higher from yesterday's 5pm levels, but right in line with 3pm (what many would argue to be the proper time to mark daily closing levels in Treasuries). Thursday's trifecta of downbeat labor data piqued the market's interest in next week's big jobs report. But between now and then, Treasuries don't seem overly eager to re-enter the sub-4.20
5th February, 26
Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data
Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data Bonds went on a bit of a buying spree on Thursday. It was the biggest rally day since November, at least, and that's impressive given the motivations. Specifically, there was a trifecta of downbeat labor market reports (Challenger, Jobless Claims, and Job Openings). Individually, none of these are worth a third of the move we saw today, but the whole was greater than the sum of its parts. There's also a 4th report being traded today: next week's big jobs report. In other words, between yesterday's ISM employment numbers and today's reports
Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data
Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data Bonds went on a bit of a buying spree on Thursday. It was the biggest rally day since November, at least, and that's impressive given the motivations. Specifically, there was a trifecta of downbeat labor market reports (Challenger, Jobless Claims, and Job Openings). Individually, none of these are worth a third of the move we saw today, but the whole was greater than the sum of its parts. There's also a 4th report being traded today: next week's big jobs report. In other words, between yesterday's ISM employment numbers and today's reports
5th February, 26
Mortgage Rates Fall After Downbeat Employment Data
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and that bonds care about employment data. There are quite a few different economic reports that focus on various employment metrics. Next Wednesday's jobs report is the biggest ticket by far, but other reports can move the needle at times--especially when they fall far from forecasts or previous readings. This was the case with three separate reports today. One of them almost never gets covered in the news, but it showed planned layoffs at large firms were the third highest since 2020. The second was the weekly jobless claims report, which finally
Mortgage Rates Fall After Downbeat Employment Data
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and that bonds care about employment data. There are quite a few different economic reports that focus on various employment metrics. Next Wednesday's jobs report is the biggest ticket by far, but other reports can move the needle at times--especially when they fall far from forecasts or previous readings. This was the case with three separate reports today. One of them almost never gets covered in the news, but it showed planned layoffs at large firms were the third highest since 2020. The second was the weekly jobless claims report, which finally
5th February, 26
Climate Risk, Processing, Construction, Credit Score Programs; IMB Topics; In-Person Events
Yup, another competitor for lenders come July: Bed Bath & Beyond is acquiring Tokens.com “to develop a blockchain-based investment and personal finance platform” and will use tools from tZERO and integrate with blockchain firm Figure to offer services such as mortgages and renovation loans. Indeed, mergers, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships are alive and well, ranging from branches moving to talk of more headline-grabbing deals ahead. Welcome to the club, Bed, Bath, and Beyond, I think you’ll find it a confusing industry… there isn’t a lot of policy shaping selling
Climate Risk, Processing, Construction, Credit Score Programs; IMB Topics; In-Person Events
Yup, another competitor for lenders come July: Bed Bath & Beyond is acquiring Tokens.com “to develop a blockchain-based investment and personal finance platform” and will use tools from tZERO and integrate with blockchain firm Figure to offer services such as mortgages and renovation loans. Indeed, mergers, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships are alive and well, ranging from branches moving to talk of more headline-grabbing deals ahead. Welcome to the club, Bed, Bath, and Beyond, I think you’ll find it a confusing industry… there isn’t a lot of policy shaping selling
5th February, 26
Stronger Start Thanks to Employment Data
Bonds were incidentally and inconsequentially stronger to start the overnight session, but began to see better gains after 7am ET. There were two notable bumps in volume after the 7:30am Challenger job cut data and the 8:30am Jobless Claims data. Of the two, the latter was much more clearly linked to gains. Challenger definitely got a small volume bump, but it's hard to say that the gains weren't already in progress when it came out. The morning's labor market data will be rounded out by the report with the biggest potential (emphasis on "potential") reaction: Job Openings at
Stronger Start Thanks to Employment Data
Bonds were incidentally and inconsequentially stronger to start the overnight session, but began to see better gains after 7am ET. There were two notable bumps in volume after the 7:30am Challenger job cut data and the 8:30am Jobless Claims data. Of the two, the latter was much more clearly linked to gains. Challenger definitely got a small volume bump, but it's hard to say that the gains weren't already in progress when it came out. The morning's labor market data will be rounded out by the report with the biggest potential (emphasis on "potential") reaction: Job Openings at
4th February, 26
No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday
No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday With the big jobs report on hold until next Wednesday, this morning's ADP/ISM duo had to do most of the week's heavy lifting in terms of important econ data. The response was underwhelming, at best. ADP was a complete non-event, but also fairly close to consensus. ISM was mixed and generally helped bonds hold their ground with yields moving down from highs at 10am. The day's range remained inside yesterday's and there were minimal losses by the 3pm close. The JOLTS data that was scheduled for Tuesday will now be coming out on
No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday
No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday With the big jobs report on hold until next Wednesday, this morning's ADP/ISM duo had to do most of the week's heavy lifting in terms of important econ data. The response was underwhelming, at best. ADP was a complete non-event, but also fairly close to consensus. ISM was mixed and generally helped bonds hold their ground with yields moving down from highs at 10am. The day's range remained inside yesterday's and there were minimal losses by the 3pm close. The JOLTS data that was scheduled for Tuesday will now be coming out on