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12th June, 26
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the notion that a preliminary peace deal was near the finish line this morning. This resulted in modest upward pressure on yields for the first several hours of the day. Then just before 11am, Iran's foreign minister said the media shouldn't speculate and that the deal has "never been closer." Trump subsequently reposted that news. This sent oil prices back toward the day's lows and helped bonds recover most the ground lost earlier this morning. Volatility was minimal in the bigger picture. We'd
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the notion that a preliminary peace deal was near the finish line this morning. This resulted in modest upward pressure on yields for the first several hours of the day. Then just before 11am, Iran's foreign minister said the media shouldn't speculate and that the deal has "never been closer." Trump subsequently reposted that news. This sent oil prices back toward the day's lows and helped bonds recover most the ground lost earlier this morning. Volatility was minimal in the bigger picture. We'd
12th June, 26
Mortgage Rates Near Lowest Levels in Weeks
Some national headlines are pointing out that mortgage rates are higher this week. Those are based on weekly survey data which can often be stale compared to daily rate movement. Actual average rates are now in line with last Thursday's levels of 6.58% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. That's just 0.02% higher than May 29th levels. You'd have to go back another 2 weeks to May 14th to see anything lower. What's the catch? It's pretty simple. While we may be near the low end of the 4 week range, that range lies at the highs of 10 month range. It's also reasonably narrow, running from 6.58 to 6.
Mortgage Rates Near Lowest Levels in Weeks
Some national headlines are pointing out that mortgage rates are higher this week. Those are based on weekly survey data which can often be stale compared to daily rate movement. Actual average rates are now in line with last Thursday's levels of 6.58% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. That's just 0.02% higher than May 29th levels. You'd have to go back another 2 weeks to May 14th to see anything lower. What's the catch? It's pretty simple. While we may be near the low end of the 4 week range, that range lies at the highs of 10 month range. It's also reasonably narrow, running from 6.58 to 6.
12th June, 26
Modest Bounce in Refi Demand Despite Rate Volatility
Mortgage applications bounced higher last week after the holiday-shortened period, though the increase largely reflected a normalization in activity rather than a meaningful improvement in underlying demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 10.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 5. The gain was led by refinance activity, which rose 15% from the previous week. Refinance demand was also 20% higher than the same period one year ago, showing that activity remains well ahead of last year’s pace despite continued rate
Modest Bounce in Refi Demand Despite Rate Volatility
Mortgage applications bounced higher last week after the holiday-shortened period, though the increase largely reflected a normalization in activity rather than a meaningful improvement in underlying demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 10.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 5. The gain was led by refinance activity, which rose 15% from the previous week. Refinance demand was also 20% higher than the same period one year ago, showing that activity remains well ahead of last year’s pace despite continued rate
12th June, 26
Existing-Home Sales Reach Five-Month High as Affordability Improves
Existing-home sales picked up in May, rising to their highest level since December as improving affordability and steady household income gains continued to support demand. Sales increased 3.2% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million , and were also 3.2% higher than a year ago. “More Americans are on the move,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, noting that sales reached their strongest pace since December. He said improving affordability is helping drive the momentum, adding that mortgage rates remain below last year’s level and are roughly in line with the
Existing-Home Sales Reach Five-Month High as Affordability Improves
Existing-home sales picked up in May, rising to their highest level since December as improving affordability and steady household income gains continued to support demand. Sales increased 3.2% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million , and were also 3.2% higher than a year ago. “More Americans are on the move,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, noting that sales reached their strongest pace since December. He said improving affordability is helping drive the momentum, adding that mortgage rates remain below last year’s level and are roughly in line with the
12th June, 26
UAD 3.6, Compliance AI, Closing Doc Tools; Bill Pulte Ousted; MBS Investor Interview; MISMO and AI
Every time I use my credit card at the supermarket it can impact my credit score which were invented in 1958. What might be the credit score of the United States with its $1.78 trillion deficit in 2025? Gas stations and supermarkets are two daily places where we see inflation. Trader Joes, with its 630+ locations, is known for many things, not the least of which is its flowers and their prices. “Shrinkflation” has hit the chain, and anyone who has purchased flowers lately know that the bunches have gone down from, say, 12 flowers to 8. Either raise prices or make portions smaller… Yes,
UAD 3.6, Compliance AI, Closing Doc Tools; Bill Pulte Ousted; MBS Investor Interview; MISMO and AI
Every time I use my credit card at the supermarket it can impact my credit score which were invented in 1958. What might be the credit score of the United States with its $1.78 trillion deficit in 2025? Gas stations and supermarkets are two daily places where we see inflation. Trader Joes, with its 630+ locations, is known for many things, not the least of which is its flowers and their prices. “Shrinkflation” has hit the chain, and anyone who has purchased flowers lately know that the bunches have gone down from, say, 12 flowers to 8. Either raise prices or make portions smaller… Yes,
12th June, 26
To Whammie or Not to Whammie, That is Our Friday (And Weekend)
Bonds were sideways at first in the overnight session. Then they improved moderately after newswires from Iran's Mehr news agency detailing some specifics of the peace deal, including the U.S. withdrawing forces from the area. Bonds then began selling as various push-back headlines popped up. Deal not completely confirmed. No location determined. Deal still under review. No signing day confirmed. etc... With nothing meaty on the calendar and no final signing even rumored to be in the cards until next week, we'll at least the next 3 days waiting for any legitimate rejection of the peace
To Whammie or Not to Whammie, That is Our Friday (And Weekend)
Bonds were sideways at first in the overnight session. Then they improved moderately after newswires from Iran's Mehr news agency detailing some specifics of the peace deal, including the U.S. withdrawing forces from the area. Bonds then began selling as various push-back headlines popped up. Deal not completely confirmed. No location determined. Deal still under review. No signing day confirmed. etc... With nothing meaty on the calendar and no final signing even rumored to be in the cards until next week, we'll at least the next 3 days waiting for any legitimate rejection of the peace
11th June, 26
Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement
Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement This morning's commentary noted Trump comments regarding planned air strikes for today. Bonds reacted, but maintained some skepticism. That proved to be a good instinct. At roughly 1:30pm, Trump said the air strikes were cancelled and that all parties had agreed on a deal, and that a time/place for signing would be announced shortly. There wasn't as much push back against those claims by foreign sources as we've often seen in response to similar claims of deals being reached. Stocks surged. Oil plummeted. 10yr yields dropped another
Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement
Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement This morning's commentary noted Trump comments regarding planned air strikes for today. Bonds reacted, but maintained some skepticism. That proved to be a good instinct. At roughly 1:30pm, Trump said the air strikes were cancelled and that all parties had agreed on a deal, and that a time/place for signing would be announced shortly. There wasn't as much push back against those claims by foreign sources as we've often seen in response to similar claims of deals being reached. Stocks surged. Oil plummeted. 10yr yields dropped another
11th June, 26
Rates Drop Sharply to One Week Lows
Mortgage rates began the day in uneventful fashion with the average lender right in line with yesterday's latest levels. Things might have gotten off to a slightly better start, but higher inflation in this morning's econ data and discouraging war-related headlines put upward pressure on bond yields (yields and rates are technically the same thing and they move in the same direction). The bulk of the day remained uneventful but that changed abruptly at 1:30pm when news circulated that Trump cancelled today's planned air strikes and said that both sides had approved final details of a permanent
Rates Drop Sharply to One Week Lows
Mortgage rates began the day in uneventful fashion with the average lender right in line with yesterday's latest levels. Things might have gotten off to a slightly better start, but higher inflation in this morning's econ data and discouraging war-related headlines put upward pressure on bond yields (yields and rates are technically the same thing and they move in the same direction). The bulk of the day remained uneventful but that changed abruptly at 1:30pm when news circulated that Trump cancelled today's planned air strikes and said that both sides had approved final details of a permanent
11th June, 26
Hedging, HOA Lien Monitoring, Reverse Products; Webcasts; CFPB's Humility Pledge
Broker and Lender Products, Software, and Services On the PGA Tour, the player who enters Sunday’s final round in first place only goes on to win about one-third of the time. Getting close and finishing the job are two different things. Optimal Blue's May Market Advantage report found a similar dynamic in mortgage pipelines: Purchase loans accounted for more than 81 percent of total lock volume, while refinance share fell to its lowest level since June 2025. But the more notable shift came after borrowers locked. Purchase pull-through fell 539 bps month over month, while refinance pull-
Hedging, HOA Lien Monitoring, Reverse Products; Webcasts; CFPB's Humility Pledge
Broker and Lender Products, Software, and Services On the PGA Tour, the player who enters Sunday’s final round in first place only goes on to win about one-third of the time. Getting close and finishing the job are two different things. Optimal Blue's May Market Advantage report found a similar dynamic in mortgage pipelines: Purchase loans accounted for more than 81 percent of total lock volume, while refinance share fell to its lowest level since June 2025. But the more notable shift came after borrowers locked. Purchase pull-through fell 539 bps month over month, while refinance pull-
11th June, 26
Some Volatility and Resilience After Trump Comments and Data
Bonds were reasonably stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields down roughly 4bps from 4.56 to 4.52. About 8 minutes before the PPI data came out, a series of Trump comments on the Iran war sent oil prices and bond yields higher (new strikes and intent to take Kharg Island). PPI added to the pressure with the monthly headline hitting 1.1% vs 0.7% forecast. The fact that core PPI came in at 0.4% vs 0.7% last month tells us that energy prices are the main driver (as does the text of the report itself, oddly enough). In fact, both energy and goods inflation are running higher than
Some Volatility and Resilience After Trump Comments and Data
Bonds were reasonably stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields down roughly 4bps from 4.56 to 4.52. About 8 minutes before the PPI data came out, a series of Trump comments on the Iran war sent oil prices and bond yields higher (new strikes and intent to take Kharg Island). PPI added to the pressure with the monthly headline hitting 1.1% vs 0.7% forecast. The fact that core PPI came in at 0.4% vs 0.7% last month tells us that energy prices are the main driver (as does the text of the report itself, oddly enough). In fact, both energy and goods inflation are running higher than