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6th August, 26
Modest Overnight Weakness on Oil and Corporate Issuance.
It's as good of a day as any to revisit our primer on corporate debt issuance given that it's having an impact on bonds today. Alphabet announced a $25bln bond offering around 7:45am ET, and yields instantly moved 2bps higher. Before that, there was nearly 2bps of weakness as bonds followed oil prices modestly higher. Since the start of the domestic session, things have been calm. Econ data was a non-event. Both MBS and Treasuries are holding near yesterday's weakest levels (not a huge deal considering the narrow range). Lastly, this could simply be viewed as a quick, token
Modest Overnight Weakness on Oil and Corporate Issuance.
It's as good of a day as any to revisit our primer on corporate debt issuance given that it's having an impact on bonds today. Alphabet announced a $25bln bond offering around 7:45am ET, and yields instantly moved 2bps higher. Before that, there was nearly 2bps of weakness as bonds followed oil prices modestly higher. Since the start of the domestic session, things have been calm. Econ data was a non-event. Both MBS and Treasuries are holding near yesterday's weakest levels (not a huge deal considering the narrow range). Lastly, this could simply be viewed as a quick, token
6th August, 26
Hedging, AVM, Dashboard Tools; UWM News Turn Heads; Chrisman Demo Day Announced
Lender and Broker Software, Products, and Services What if the most important capital markets decision you're making today is based on incomplete data? Mortgage lenders don't struggle with a lack of information. They struggle with too much of it spread across too many systems. Pricing in one place. Hedge performance in another. Pipeline metrics somewhere else. By the time you've connected the dots, the market has already moved. That's why Optimal Blue created Profitability Center, a unified capital markets dashboard that brings production metrics, profitability insights, market intelligence,
Hedging, AVM, Dashboard Tools; UWM News Turn Heads; Chrisman Demo Day Announced
Lender and Broker Software, Products, and Services What if the most important capital markets decision you're making today is based on incomplete data? Mortgage lenders don't struggle with a lack of information. They struggle with too much of it spread across too many systems. Pricing in one place. Hedge performance in another. Pipeline metrics somewhere else. By the time you've connected the dots, the market has already moved. That's why Optimal Blue created Profitability Center, a unified capital markets dashboard that brings production metrics, profitability insights, market intelligence,
5th August, 26
Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady
Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady Bonds took a break from their recent trend of moderate day over day movement to hold relatively steady on Wednesday. Econ data didn't get in the way in any noticeable way. If anything, ISM data briefly helped bonds move away from the day's weaker levels. But the key underlying consideration was a stable, sideways performance in fuel prices. MBS and Treasuries were technically a hair weaker, but it's just as fair to say they were "unchanged." Familiar risks remain in the day's ahead depending on Iran war headlines and Friday's NFP.
Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady
Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady Bonds took a break from their recent trend of moderate day over day movement to hold relatively steady on Wednesday. Econ data didn't get in the way in any noticeable way. If anything, ISM data briefly helped bonds move away from the day's weaker levels. But the key underlying consideration was a stable, sideways performance in fuel prices. MBS and Treasuries were technically a hair weaker, but it's just as fair to say they were "unchanged." Familiar risks remain in the day's ahead depending on Iran war headlines and Friday's NFP.
5th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Steady at 2 Week Lows
The bond market and mortgage rates have been on the move lower recently after hitting longer term highs at the end of July. Today offered a break from the recent movement with bonds and rates holding perfectly flat day-over-day. The upside is that this means it's yet another day spent at the lowest levels in more than 2 weeks. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained at 6.75%. Flat oil prices helped facilitate the flat bond market performance. Risks and opportunities remain in the coming days. If a Hormuz transit agreement is confirmed, rates could certainly fall.
Mortgage Rates Steady at 2 Week Lows
The bond market and mortgage rates have been on the move lower recently after hitting longer term highs at the end of July. Today offered a break from the recent movement with bonds and rates holding perfectly flat day-over-day. The upside is that this means it's yet another day spent at the lowest levels in more than 2 weeks. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained at 6.75%. Flat oil prices helped facilitate the flat bond market performance. Risks and opportunities remain in the coming days. If a Hormuz transit agreement is confirmed, rates could certainly fall.
5th August, 26
Minimal Overnight Volatility. Waiting on Data and War News
With the potential for a Hormuz deal floated earlier in the week, a more substantive announcement remains the biggest opportunity for the bond market until Friday's jobs report (and even then, could supersede the jobs report depending on the details). Conversely, another diplomatic breakdown or another re-escalation would be the biggest risk. There were no no hints of either eventuality overnight and the flat trading levels in bonds confirm that. In the meantime, we'll have some B-team data in the form of ISM Services this morning at 10am ET. This report isn't guaranteed to cause a reaction,
Minimal Overnight Volatility. Waiting on Data and War News
With the potential for a Hormuz deal floated earlier in the week, a more substantive announcement remains the biggest opportunity for the bond market until Friday's jobs report (and even then, could supersede the jobs report depending on the details). Conversely, another diplomatic breakdown or another re-escalation would be the biggest risk. There were no no hints of either eventuality overnight and the flat trading levels in bonds confirm that. In the meantime, we'll have some B-team data in the form of ISM Services this morning at 10am ET. This report isn't guaranteed to cause a reaction,
4th August, 26
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons Money flooded back into both sides of the market in a major way (albeit more "major" for the stock market) after Bessent said we could be days away from a new deal on Hormuz transit. Oil plunged to the lowest levels since July 13th and bond yields were willing to follow (also nearly back to 7/13 levels). MBS picked up more than quarter point and multiple lenders repriced for the better as the gains came in waves throughout the morning trading hours. Familiar risks remain. We've seen plenty of back and forth on the state of the war, but we can say the market
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons
Solid Showing For Logical Reasons Money flooded back into both sides of the market in a major way (albeit more "major" for the stock market) after Bessent said we could be days away from a new deal on Hormuz transit. Oil plunged to the lowest levels since July 13th and bond yields were willing to follow (also nearly back to 7/13 levels). MBS picked up more than quarter point and multiple lenders repriced for the better as the gains came in waves throughout the morning trading hours. Familiar risks remain. We've seen plenty of back and forth on the state of the war, but we can say the market
4th August, 26
Mortgage Rates Lowest in Over 2 Weeks
Mortgage rates were a bit hesitant to follow the bond market's advice yesterday. Specifically, bonds rallied (i.e. bond prices moved higher and yields/rates moved lower). This almost always coincides with mortgage rates falling by a proportional amount. But yesterday didn't see the typical level of correlation for many lenders. Today is a different story. The additional gains in the bond market (courtesy of Iran-related headlines and lower oil prices) offered enough reassurance for mortgage lenders to get a bit more aggressive in terms of keeping pace with the market. The net effect is
Mortgage Rates Lowest in Over 2 Weeks
Mortgage rates were a bit hesitant to follow the bond market's advice yesterday. Specifically, bonds rallied (i.e. bond prices moved higher and yields/rates moved lower). This almost always coincides with mortgage rates falling by a proportional amount. But yesterday didn't see the typical level of correlation for many lenders. Today is a different story. The additional gains in the bond market (courtesy of Iran-related headlines and lower oil prices) offered enough reassurance for mortgage lenders to get a bit more aggressive in terms of keeping pace with the market. The net effect is
4th August, 26
Webcasts, Capital Deployment, DPA Tools; AI and Borrower Trust; Interview with Vesta's Mike Yu
After a general summer lull, and with talk of JPMorgan Chase’s $750 billion housing investment rifling through our biz, mortgage conference season shifts back into gear with next week’s Western Secondary with plenty of events in September and October, so book those rooms. The last time you stayed in a hotel, or maybe you’re reading this right now in one, what color were the sheets and towels? A safe bet is “white,” and here’s why. Sheet psychology is one thing, but for lenders, M&A psychology is another. Yesterday an “industry source” wrote to me, “I learned this morning
Webcasts, Capital Deployment, DPA Tools; AI and Borrower Trust; Interview with Vesta's Mike Yu
After a general summer lull, and with talk of JPMorgan Chase’s $750 billion housing investment rifling through our biz, mortgage conference season shifts back into gear with next week’s Western Secondary with plenty of events in September and October, so book those rooms. The last time you stayed in a hotel, or maybe you’re reading this right now in one, what color were the sheets and towels? A safe bet is “white,” and here’s why. Sheet psychology is one thing, but for lenders, M&A psychology is another. Yesterday an “industry source” wrote to me, “I learned this morning
4th August, 26
Hormuz Deal Hopes Turning Bonds Green at Open
This morning is offering another installment of hope for some form of progress in Iran. In today's case, it was Bessent floating the notion of possible Hormuz deal as early as this week. Markets will believe it when they see it, of course, but they're certainly willing to trade the hope. After moving modestly higher overnight, oil prices and bond yields are quickly lower in response to the headlines
Hormuz Deal Hopes Turning Bonds Green at Open
This morning is offering another installment of hope for some form of progress in Iran. In today's case, it was Bessent floating the notion of possible Hormuz deal as early as this week. Markets will believe it when they see it, of course, but they're certainly willing to trade the hope. After moving modestly higher overnight, oil prices and bond yields are quickly lower in response to the headlines
3rd August, 26
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain Monday was "nice." Bonds rallied more than a little bit and held those gains in an exceptionally flat manner all day. But there are caveats. Apart from last Friday, today's yields matched the long-term highs seen on July 23rd. Or on a more timely note, the rally didn't fully erase Friday's weakness. Additionally, strength was not a given. It required a fairly substantial drop in oil prices stepping from a fresh round Iran war optimism. This as been a fickle friend to say the least, though we'll never turn down the visit. Ample past precedent
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain Monday was "nice." Bonds rallied more than a little bit and held those gains in an exceptionally flat manner all day. But there are caveats. Apart from last Friday, today's yields matched the long-term highs seen on July 23rd. Or on a more timely note, the rally didn't fully erase Friday's weakness. Additionally, strength was not a given. It required a fairly substantial drop in oil prices stepping from a fresh round Iran war optimism. This as been a fickle friend to say the least, though we'll never turn down the visit. Ample past precedent