Sideways and Slightly Stronger It was a rather uneventful day with bonds holding sideways in a relatively narrow range after a modest overnight improvement. Intraday correlation with oil prices was fairly poor in the 8-10am window, but generally well-behaved otherwise. Short-end rates (2yr and shorter) were slightly higher on the day, and experienced some earlier volatility surround Fed's Goolsbee's comments on inflation and the rate path. The biggest takeaway there was that the Fed is attempting to assess supply shock inflation versus demand-driven inflation with Goolsbee saying he's hearing…
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates to start the new week. The underlying bond market was slightly stronger. This suggests slightly lower interest rates. The average mortgage lender lowered top-tier 30yr fixed rates by 0.01% compared to Friday. Underlying motivation for the bond market can mostly be attributed to lower oil prices, which have been a common source of intraday inspiration for better or worse. With today's drop, the average lender remains right in line with the rates they offered before last week's Fed rate hike. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
Broker and Lender Products, Software, and Services Ever gone to pick up a prescription only to be told it needs prior authorization? The request leaves the provider’s system and lands in the health insurer’s, but neither system updates the other, so you end up calling the insurance company yourself to find out whether the drug is covered. Home equity runs on the same handoffs. Valuation, title, and flood certification each sit in a separate file with no automatic sharing, so a processor logs into each one by hand just to learn where a loan stands. With U.S. homeowners holding a near-record…
While the Fed may have requested a majority of the market's attention last week, oil prices were saying "ahem... over here." Now this morning, the post-Fed trade is even farther in the rearview and oil is offering even louder reminders with the price per barrel now under $93 after cresting $106 last Tuesday. There is no big-ticket econ data on tap all week, and especially not today or tomorrow. Multiple Fed officials are speaking, but we're not sure what they could say that would tell us any more than last week's announcement/dots/press conference. Bottom line: all eyes on oil and war…
Did Japan Sell Treasuries Today? Bonds sold off medium big on Friday in a move that offered little by way of overt explanations. There were reports of "rate checks" in the USD/JPY market--something that CAN precede the selling of U.S. bonds in order to buy JPY. Notably, there were no reports of actual intervention, but sometimes these things aren't revealed until the following trading day. If this explains today's weakness (and to be clear, we're not sure it does), it would be good for the U.S. bond market as it would mean 10yr yields still held under 5% despite added, artificial pressure.…
We'd be the first to remind you that mortgage rates are primarily determined by trading levels in the bond market--specifically those for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). That said, there are days where rates don't do exactly what MBS suggest. Today was one of them. According to the bond market, mortgage rates should have been much higher than they were yesterday. As it stands, the average lender was just barely higher. The discrepancy comes down to the volatility experienced earlier in the week. Lenders have some latitude when it comes to setting mortgage rates. If the underlying…
Pending home sales edged higher in August as gains in the South and West offset declines in the Northeast and Midwest. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, increased 0.3% from July but was down 4.7% from a year earlier. The modest increase came despite another period of elevated mortgage rates. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said income growth has been outpacing home price growth, but higher borrowing costs continue to limit the resulting improvement in buying power and housing demand. Pending sales…
Residential construction was mixed in August as housing starts recovered in the single-family sector, while building permits declined from July levels and completions fell sharply. The latest Census Bureau data points to continued unevenness in residential construction, with builders pulling back somewhat on new authorizations even as single-family construction picked up. Privately owned housing starts fell 2.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.275 million , down 1.2% from the August 2025 pace. Single-family starts, however, increased 7.6% to 918k , while starts for buildings…
Builder sentiment took a meaningful step backward in September, with higher mortgage rates, rising construction costs and worsening labor shortages weighing on the market for newly built homes. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) fell three points to 32 , matching September 2025 as the lowest level in over 3 years. Breakdown of various component indices: HMI Component August September Change Current sales conditions 39 35 -4 Sales expectations 43 37 -6 Prospective buyer traffic 23 23 Unchanged “Buyer traffic has weakened across much of…
Mortgage application activity weakened again last week, with higher mortgage rates weighing on both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 4.1% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending September 11. The results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. Purchase applications fell 1% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unadjusted Purchase Index dropped 13%, although that figure was heavily affected by the holiday. More notably, purchase activity was 19% lower than the same week…
Headlines and excerpts are sourced from Mortgage News Daily. All rights remain with the original publisher.
