Latest news
26th May, 26
Mortgage Rates Move Moderately Lower
Although mortgage rates are still relatively close to their highest levels in 9 months, they continue moving lower after hitting those highs as the beginning of last week. Today's improvement follows news over the weekend that the U.S. and Iran are even closer to agreeing on a framework that would end the war. The war remains a key source of volatility for rates and other financial markets. In general, escalation and/or delays in the peace process are bad for rates. De-escalation and improved peace prospects are good for rates. While none of the news of the past 48 hours guarantees a speedy
Mortgage Rates Move Moderately Lower
Although mortgage rates are still relatively close to their highest levels in 9 months, they continue moving lower after hitting those highs as the beginning of last week. Today's improvement follows news over the weekend that the U.S. and Iran are even closer to agreeing on a framework that would end the war. The war remains a key source of volatility for rates and other financial markets. In general, escalation and/or delays in the peace process are bad for rates. De-escalation and improved peace prospects are good for rates. While none of the news of the past 48 hours guarantees a speedy
26th May, 26
HELOC, HOA Lien Monitoring, AI, Developer Platform Tools; Webinars and Training
The gap between where rates are and where households “need them to be” is suppressing labor mobility, distorting retirement decisions, and reshaping expectations about generational wealth building: 56 percent of working Americans have either turned down a job requiring relocation or say they would, and 20 percent have already turned down a job, promotion, or career opportunity because it required moving. LOs will tell you that the attachment to low rates is behavioral, not just financial. Polls show that the majority of homeowners with mortgages would consider moving if they could transfer
HELOC, HOA Lien Monitoring, AI, Developer Platform Tools; Webinars and Training
The gap between where rates are and where households “need them to be” is suppressing labor mobility, distorting retirement decisions, and reshaping expectations about generational wealth building: 56 percent of working Americans have either turned down a job requiring relocation or say they would, and 20 percent have already turned down a job, promotion, or career opportunity because it required moving. LOs will tell you that the attachment to low rates is behavioral, not just financial. Polls show that the majority of homeowners with mortgages would consider moving if they could transfer
26th May, 26
Much Stronger Start as Peace Deal Expectations Improve
On Sunday evening, the NYT ran a story that the U.S. and Iran had agreed in principle to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The key distinction versus previous rumors/reports is that the issue of nuclear material is being left as "TBD." Subsequent headlines mentioned several military strikes, but the market didn't react (it's been fairly common to see those sorts of "yeah but" headlines immediately following potential breakthroughs toward peace). Market reaction is the best judge of headline credibility and the reaction is clear. Oil dropped about $5/bbl and 10yr yields are staring
Much Stronger Start as Peace Deal Expectations Improve
On Sunday evening, the NYT ran a story that the U.S. and Iran had agreed in principle to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The key distinction versus previous rumors/reports is that the issue of nuclear material is being left as "TBD." Subsequent headlines mentioned several military strikes, but the market didn't react (it's been fairly common to see those sorts of "yeah but" headlines immediately following potential breakthroughs toward peace). Market reaction is the best judge of headline credibility and the reaction is clear. Oil dropped about $5/bbl and 10yr yields are staring
22nd May, 26
Bonds Scratch Out a Win Amid Dueling Headlines
Bonds Scratch Out a Win Amid Dueling Headlines Bonds remain surprisingly willing to react to the most seemingly insignificant war-related headlines. Today it was the much-debated geographical location of Pakistan's lead negotiator, Asim Munir, that set the tone. Bonds rallied on early accounts that he was en route to Tehran and pulled back when other headlines suggested he never left Pakistan. Ultimately, yields trickled just barely into positive territory by the end of the holiday-shortened session. Monday is fully closed for Memorial Day and we're back to watching the news feed on Tuesday.
Bonds Scratch Out a Win Amid Dueling Headlines
Bonds Scratch Out a Win Amid Dueling Headlines Bonds remain surprisingly willing to react to the most seemingly insignificant war-related headlines. Today it was the much-debated geographical location of Pakistan's lead negotiator, Asim Munir, that set the tone. Bonds rallied on early accounts that he was en route to Tehran and pulled back when other headlines suggested he never left Pakistan. Ultimately, yields trickled just barely into positive territory by the end of the holiday-shortened session. Monday is fully closed for Memorial Day and we're back to watching the news feed on Tuesday.
22nd May, 26
Mortgage Rates End Week Roughly Unchanged
Mortgage lenders rely on the bond market to generate mortgage rates. In addition to being fully closed on Monday for Memorial Day, bonds also close 3 hours earlier than normal on the preceding Friday (i.e. today). The abbreviated trading session was fairly uneventful for rates despite some back-and-forth volatility in response to diplomacy headlines surrounding Iran/US peace negotiations. The flow of news resulted in better bond market levels early in the day and a pull-back in the late AM hours. After accounting for some lenders' mid-day rate changes, the average lender ended the day right in
Mortgage Rates End Week Roughly Unchanged
Mortgage lenders rely on the bond market to generate mortgage rates. In addition to being fully closed on Monday for Memorial Day, bonds also close 3 hours earlier than normal on the preceding Friday (i.e. today). The abbreviated trading session was fairly uneventful for rates despite some back-and-forth volatility in response to diplomacy headlines surrounding Iran/US peace negotiations. The flow of news resulted in better bond market levels early in the day and a pull-back in the late AM hours. After accounting for some lenders' mid-day rate changes, the average lender ended the day right in
22nd May, 26
Builders Breaking Ground at Fastest Pace in 2 Years
Residential construction activity was mixed again in April, as building permits rebounded while housing starts pulled back modestly from March’s stronger pace. The latest Census Bureau data continues to reflect a construction sector navigating uneven demand and affordability pressures. Privately owned housing starts fell 2.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.465 million , down from March’s revised 1.507 million pace. Despite the monthly decline, starts were still 4.6% higher than April 2025 levels. Single-family starts dropped 9.0% to 930k, while multifamily starts (buildings with
Builders Breaking Ground at Fastest Pace in 2 Years
Residential construction activity was mixed again in April, as building permits rebounded while housing starts pulled back modestly from March’s stronger pace. The latest Census Bureau data continues to reflect a construction sector navigating uneven demand and affordability pressures. Privately owned housing starts fell 2.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.465 million , down from March’s revised 1.507 million pace. Despite the monthly decline, starts were still 4.6% higher than April 2025 levels. Single-family starts dropped 9.0% to 930k, while multifamily starts (buildings with
22nd May, 26
Borrowers Shift Toward ARMs as Fixed Rates Climb
Mortgage applications pulled back last week as rising rates weighed on homebuyer demand, while refinance activity remained largely flat. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.3% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 15. The decline was driven primarily by softer purchase activity. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 4% from the prior week, though purchase demand remained 8% higher than the same week one year ago. Refinance activity was mostly unchanged despite the rise in rates. The Refinance Index dipped just 0.1%
Borrowers Shift Toward ARMs as Fixed Rates Climb
Mortgage applications pulled back last week as rising rates weighed on homebuyer demand, while refinance activity remained largely flat. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.3% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 15. The decline was driven primarily by softer purchase activity. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 4% from the prior week, though purchase demand remained 8% higher than the same week one year ago. Refinance activity was mostly unchanged despite the rise in rates. The Refinance Index dipped just 0.1%
22nd May, 26
Builder Sentiment Improves Slightly as Mortgage Rates Continue to Weigh on Demand
Builder confidence improved modestly in May, though sentiment remained subdued as elevated mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and broader economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) increased three points to 37 . While the gain marks a slight rebound from April’s decline, the index is still sitting below the threshold that signals broader builder optimism. All three major components of the index moved higher in May. The gauge measuring current sales conditions rose three points to
Builder Sentiment Improves Slightly as Mortgage Rates Continue to Weigh on Demand
Builder confidence improved modestly in May, though sentiment remained subdued as elevated mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and broader economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) increased three points to 37 . While the gain marks a slight rebound from April’s decline, the index is still sitting below the threshold that signals broader builder optimism. All three major components of the index moved higher in May. The gauge measuring current sales conditions rose three points to
22nd May, 26
Credit and Verification, Warehouse, AI Processing Tools; Basel III Update; Rates Higher for Longer?
Wanna know the new buzz acronym? Residential Transition Loans (RTL): financing for properties in transition, including fix-and-flip, bridge, and rehab deals. Catch the wave… people always need to borrow money! Now, if only income guidelines by the Agencies matched how incomes have changed. Change is constant: “Rob, if you think inflation is bad, home insurance price increases in many parts of the nation are worse. When is the government going to address that?” I don’t know the answer to that: the government certainly is involved in lending, but not much so with insurance companies.
Credit and Verification, Warehouse, AI Processing Tools; Basel III Update; Rates Higher for Longer?
Wanna know the new buzz acronym? Residential Transition Loans (RTL): financing for properties in transition, including fix-and-flip, bridge, and rehab deals. Catch the wave… people always need to borrow money! Now, if only income guidelines by the Agencies matched how incomes have changed. Change is constant: “Rob, if you think inflation is bad, home insurance price increases in many parts of the nation are worse. When is the government going to address that?” I don’t know the answer to that: the government certainly is involved in lending, but not much so with insurance companies.
22nd May, 26
Abbreviated Friday Opening at Week's Best Levels
Bonds are starting the session at the best levels of the week with modest overnight gains getting a small boost from news that Pakistan's army chief (a central figure in mediating US/Iran peace talks) is en route to Tehran. Trading ends at 2pm today instead of 5pm, as is usually the case for a Friday before a Monday federal holiday. Econ data is light, but additional war headlines could still move the needle
Abbreviated Friday Opening at Week's Best Levels
Bonds are starting the session at the best levels of the week with modest overnight gains getting a small boost from news that Pakistan's army chief (a central figure in mediating US/Iran peace talks) is en route to Tehran. Trading ends at 2pm today instead of 5pm, as is usually the case for a Friday before a Monday federal holiday. Econ data is light, but additional war headlines could still move the needle