CREA 2026 Housing Forecast: What It Means for Buyers

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Speak with a licensed mortgage professional before making any mortgage decisions.

What CREA predicts for Canadian home prices in 2026 — the short answer

Why CREA just lowered its 2026 outlook — and what it means if you’re house-hunting

If you’ve been waiting for the “right moment” to buy or refinance in Canada, the last few years have probably felt like a long, frustrating exercise in patience. So when CREA — the country’s main source of housing market data — released its updated 2026 forecast on April 16, 2026, and revised its outlook downward, plenty of Canadians took that as one more reason to keep waiting.

The honest read is gentler. A softer forecast is not the same as a falling market. CREA still expects home prices to rise modestly and sales activity to pick up — just less than it predicted three months earlier. For most households, 2026 looks like a year of moderation, not collapse, and a sensible plan typically beats waiting for a perfect moment that may never arrive.

Working with an independent mortgage broker can help you separate the headline noise from what actually matters for your file — your qualifying income, your timing, and your real monthly payment.

Quick start — pick your path through this forecast

This article covers a lot of ground, so pick the path that fits where you are. Most readers fall into one of three groups, and the forecast affects each of them differently.

The headline numbers — what CREA is forecasting nationally

Four numbers shape the rest of this conversation. The first is the +1.5% national average price increase to about $688,955. That figure is your reference point for what a typical Canadian home may sell for this year — useful for budgeting a down payment, even though it averages across very different local markets.

The second is the 474,972 home sales forecast. That’s a 1% rise from 2025, which means the market may absorb modestly more activity but is not racing back to 2021 peaks. For a buyer, less competition often means more negotiating room. For a seller, it typically means longer days on market.

The third is the revision itself. CREA’s January 15, 2026 update expected +2.8% price growth and a 5.1% sales rebound; the April update cut both. That gap, in dollars, is roughly $10,000 off the average price prediction made just three months earlier. You can see how average Canadian home prices have moved across recent quarters for added context.

The fourth is the 2027 outlook: a further 0.9% price rise to about $695,094, and a 2.1% sales increase to 485,071. CREA notes these figures may be revised upward if the current oil shock proves short-lived.

Why CREA downgraded the forecast — the three forces behind the change

The April 2026 downgrade was not arbitrary. Three connected forces drove the revision, and understanding them helps you interpret whatever CREA releases next.

The first is the oil-price spike that took hold in the second half of March 2026. When oil prices jump, headline inflation typically rises with them. That, in turn, raises the odds that the Bank of Canada will hold or even lift its policy rate rather than cut, which pushes bond yields higher.

The second is what happened to fixed mortgage rates as a result. Canadian fixed mortgage rates closely follow Government of Canada bond yields, particularly the 5-year yield. When those yields jumped in mid-March, fixed-rate offers from lenders rose along with them. A higher fixed rate translates directly into a higher monthly payment and a lower qualifying amount under the stress test, which can sideline borrowers who were almost ready to move.

The third is the persistent uncertainty around U.S.–Canada trade and tariffs that has been weighing on buyer confidence since early 2025. CREA cites this directly as a reason many would-be buyers have stayed on the sidelines. If you want the broader context, see our explainer on how U.S. tariffs affect Canadian homebuyers.

Where price growth is — and isn’t — happening across Canada

The flat-price provinces — B.C., Alberta, and Ontario — are home to most of Canada’s largest urban markets. CREA expects more than 8% sales growth in B.C. and Ontario as buyers slowly return, but prices in these provinces are forecast to be essentially unchanged from 2025.

In Toronto, that translates to a market where condo inventory remains heavy and detached pricing is largely flat. Vancouver looks similar: more sales, little headline price movement. Calgary, which saw strong gains in 2024 and 2025, is expected to settle into a more modest 2026 — the oil-shock conversation has direct local relevance here.

Ottawa sits in the middle: a steadier mid-market city that often benefits when GTA buyers look for more affordability. Montreal and Quebec¹ are expected to post stronger 2026 gains than the national average, alongside Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. Across the board, CREA expects 2026 growth in these “hotter” markets to cool from the 6%–8% range of 2025 to roughly 3%–6%.

¹ Mortgage closings in Quebec are completed by a notary, not a lawyer.

What the forecast means for you — three reader scenarios compared

Numbers in a national forecast are only useful when you can translate them into your own situation. The table below maps CREA’s 2026 outlook to three of the most common reader scenarios — what the forecast means in plain terms, the main risk to watch for, and a practical next step.

If you are a first-time buyer, the most useful framing is opportunity-with-caution. If you are renewing, the most useful framing is plan-early. If you are considering selling, the most useful framing is price-to-now, not-to-2022. Detailed planning for entering the market is covered on our dedicated first-time home buyer financing page.

Your 2026 roadmap — five steps to take in the next 90 days

A forecast is most useful when it changes what you actually do. These five steps work whether you’re buying, refinancing, or renewing — and they apply equally well if CREA’s next update moves the numbers again.

1. 1
   Check your credit and qualifying income now. Pull your credit report and gather two recent pay stubs, your most recent T4 or notice of assessment, and a list of any other debts. Knowing where you stand today removes most of the surprise from the qualifying conversation.
2. 2
   Get pre-approved with a 120-day rate hold. A pre-approval typically secures a specific rate for around 120 days, which can insulate you from further bond-yield swings while you shop. If rates fall during that window, you usually get the lower rate at closing.
3. 3
   Run actual payment scenarios at today’s fixed and variable rates. Use real numbers — not a “what if” guess. You can run your numbers in our mortgage payment calculator to see what a 5-year fixed versus a 5-year variable payment looks like. Canadian rates compound semi-annually, which differs from many U.S. comparisons.
4. 4
   Decide your “must-budget-for” payment ceiling before house-hunting. Set the maximum monthly payment you’d genuinely be comfortable with — not the maximum a lender approves you for. Those are rarely the same number.
5. 5
   Talk to an independent broker who shops 50+ lenders. Brokers can compare offers from banks, credit unions, monoline lenders, and alternative lenders in one conversation. In a year of moving forecasts, having more options typically beats having one.

Common mistakes Canadians make when reading housing forecasts

Forecasts are useful tools and easy to misread. These are the six mistakes that most often lead to expensive decisions — and how to avoid them.

• Reading the national average as if it applies to your neighbourhood. CREA’s $688,955 figure averages across every market in Canada. A four-bedroom in Saskatoon and a downtown Toronto condo cannot be reduced to one number.
• Waiting for a “perfect bottom” that nobody can actually call. Even CREA revises its forecasts every quarter. By the time a true bottom is obvious, the moment has typically already passed.
• Confusing the average price with the MLS Home Price Index. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) is CREA’s measure of a typical home and is less volatile than the average. Different mix of homes sold each month skews the average; the HPI is the cleaner trend line.
• Ignoring the OSFI stress test when budgeting. Federally-regulated lenders must qualify most borrowers at the greater of the contract rate plus 2% or the 5.25% benchmark — try our mortgage affordability calculator to see how this affects your maximum.
• Assuming sales-volume forecasts equal price forecasts. CREA forecasts both, and they don’t always move together. A market can have more sales without higher prices, especially when buyers come back cautiously.
• Basing a decision on one headline without checking the revision history. CREA updates its forecast quarterly. Looking at the trend across three or four releases is much more reliable than reacting to any single one.

Complex files in a moving market — when a broker matters most

If your file is straightforward — strong T4 income, clean credit, conventional down payment — almost any lender can do it well. The CREA outlook matters more for timing than for approval. But the further your file moves from that profile, the more shopping pays off in actual dollars.

Self-employed borrowers, those with non-prime credit, investors building multi-property portfolios, and cross-border buyers all benefit from broker expertise in this market. Razi Khan, Founder and Mortgage Broker at Pegasus has personally walked clients through similar conditions during the 2008 recession and the 2017 stress-test rollout. The pattern is consistent: borrowers who plan ahead and shop the full lender network do meaningfully better than those who renew without negotiating.

CREA 2026 housing forecast — frequently asked questions

About the author

Razi Khan

Founder, CEO & Licensed Mortgage Broker · Pegasus Mortgage Lending · Toronto, Ontario · FSRA Lic # 11479

Razi Khan is the Founder, CEO, and a licensed Mortgage Broker at Pegasus Mortgage Lending Center Inc., based in Toronto. With over 20 years of experience in the Canadian mortgage industry, Razi has personally guided more than 3,000 clients through some of the most complex and high-stakes financial decisions of their lives — from first-time purchases in the GTA to refinancing strategies, alternative lending solutions, and cross-border mortgages for Canadians buying in the United States.

Razi founded Pegasus in October 2008, launching the brokerage at the height of a global financial crisis. He works across the full spectrum of borrower profiles, with particular expertise in complex files including self-employed borrowers, credit-challenged clients, and investors building multi-property portfolios.

Learn more about Razi Khan →

Sources & References

1. Canadian Real Estate Association. “CREA Downgrades Resale Housing Market Forecast Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Economic Uncertainty.” April 16, 2026. crea.ca
2. Canadian Real Estate Association. “CREA Updates Resale Housing Market Forecast for 2026 and 2027.” January 15, 2026. crea.ca
3. Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI). Guideline B-20 — Residential Mortgage Underwriting Practices and Procedures. osfi-bsif.gc.ca
4. Bank of Canada. “Key Interest Rate.” bankofcanada.ca
5. Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario (FSRA). Mortgage Brokerage Sector. fsrao.ca