Quick answer
Full snapshot · extractable
- As of the week of July 20, 2026, the best advertised insured 5-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada sits near 3.94% to 3.99%, and the best insured 5-year variable rate sits near 3.30% to 3.45%. These are advertised best-available rates from broker channels and may differ from the rate a specific borrower is offered.
- The Bank of Canada held its overnight policy rate at 2.25% on July 15, 2026 — the sixth consecutive hold — which keeps most-lender prime rate at 4.45% and leaves variable mortgage pricing stable in the near term.
- Fixed rates have edged higher over recent weeks as Government of Canada 5-year bond yields rose alongside energy-driven inflation concerns, so the current fixed-and-variable gap reflects two separate rate mechanics, not a single market signal.
- The next Bank of Canada rate decision is scheduled for September 2, 2026. Rate holds through most lenders typically last 90 to 120 days, which is long enough to bridge that decision if you secure one this week.
The week the rate decision got harder
Two pieces of Canadian rate news landed close together this week, and together they made the “lock or wait” question harder rather than easier.
On July 15, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% for the sixth straight decision. On July 20, Statistics Canada released June inflation figures, giving lenders and borrowers a fresh read on where fixed rates might drift.
Meanwhile, fixed rates have quietly climbed over recent weeks — not because the Bank moved, but because Government of Canada bond yields did. That two-track behaviour is the story worth understanding if you are deciding whether to lock now or wait for September 2.
Pick your path this week
Most readers here fall into one of three situations, and the right next step is different for each.
Buying in 90–120 days
Secure a written pre-approval with a rate hold before the September 2 Bank of Canada decision. A hold locks today’s fixed pricing without committing you. You can start a rate hold this week and still walk away from any offer that is not right.
Renewing in 6 months
The mistake to avoid is signing the mailed renewal offer without shopping the market. Your existing lender typically offers a rate higher than what a broker channel can find.
Variable now, thinking fixed
Whether to convert depends less on the market than on your own risk tolerance and remaining term — worth talking through with a broker first.
What happened this week — the Bank of Canada, prime, and today’s CPI
The Bank of Canada held its overnight policy rate at 2.25% on July 15, 2026 — the sixth consecutive hold since the pause that began in December 2025. The Bank’s statement pointed to renewed geopolitical tensions and energy inflation risk as reasons to stay patient before another move.
For variable-rate borrowers, the practical effect is that prime stays at 4.45% at most Canadian banks (TD uses a separate 4.60% mortgage-prime). Your variable rate this week is whatever discount your original contract quoted against prime — prime minus 1.00%, for example, gives you 3.45%.
The June Consumer Price Index was released by Statistics Canada on July 20. Economists expected inflation to have eased to around 2.9% year-over-year from May’s 3.2%, as June gasoline prices dropped alongside a temporary lull in Middle East tensions.
A softer print may take pressure off the Bank’s cautious stance and lower future bond yields, though the Bank has been clear it will not move on a single month’s data. Individual rate offers vary by borrower profile. To go deeper, see how the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate flows through to your mortgage.
This week’s rates at a glance
Here is the shape of the Canadian mortgage market as of the week of July 20, 2026, using best advertised broker-channel insured rates.
The best 1-year fixed rate sits near 4.79%. Shorter terms typically carry a premium to the 5-year fixed because they offer more flexibility to renew sooner. The best 2-year fixed rate is near 4.14%, and the best 3-year fixed rate has settled around 3.84% — the lowest point on the current curve.
The best 5-year fixed insured rate sits near 3.94% to 3.99%, and the best 5-year variable insured rate is near 3.30% to 3.45%.
| Tier | Who qualifies | 5-yr fixed | 5-yr variable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insured | Under 20% down · property under $1.5M | 3.94–4.14% | 3.30–3.55% |
| Insurable | 20%+ down · property under $1M · ≤25-yr amortization | 4.09–4.29% | 3.45–3.70% |
| Uninsurable | $1M+ property · refinance · 25+ year amortization | 4.29–4.59% | 3.60–3.85% |
| Conventional (Big 6 avg) | Any tier at Big Six bank posted rate | ~4.92% | n/a |
One important caveat: the headline rates above apply to the insured tier, meaning mortgages with less than 20% down on a property under $1.5 million, insured by CMHC, Sagen, or Canada Guaranty. Borrowers who put 20% or more down (the insurable and uninsurable tiers) typically see rates 15 to 40 basis points higher.
Individual rate offers vary by borrower profile. If you want to check what rate range applies to your specific situation, see our full rate details page for personalised quotes.
Why fixed is drifting up while variable holds steady
The current gap between fixed and variable rates comes from two separate mechanics that rate-comparison sites rarely stop to explain.
Variable mortgage rates follow the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate, which sets the prime rate at Canadian banks. Because the Bank held at 2.25% on July 15 for the sixth straight time, prime stayed at 4.45%, and variable mortgage rates stayed where they were.
Fixed mortgage rates work differently. They follow the yield on Government of Canada 5-year bonds — the price at which investors are willing to lend to the federal government for five years. Lenders take that yield and add a spread of roughly 1% to 2% to arrive at the fixed rate they offer you.
The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield has recently sat in the low-3% range, having risen alongside renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and higher oil prices. Bond investors typically demand a higher yield when they expect higher future inflation, and higher yields flow through directly to higher fixed rates.
This is why fixed can rise while variable holds: two engines, two throttles. To go deeper, see how mortgage rates are set in Canada.
Lock or wait — a broker’s framework for this week
The clean answer to “should I lock this week?” depends on three questions worth asking yourself.
What is your decision window? If you are closing on a purchase or renewing within 120 days, a rate hold today locks fixed pricing and protects you against a further move up if bond yields keep drifting. If your window is longer, most holds will expire before you sign, and the calculation is different.
What is your rate sensitivity? Run the arithmetic on your specific balance. A 25 basis point move on a $500,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years changes the monthly payment by roughly $65. That figure tells you how much a “wait and see” strategy could cost you, or save you, per month.
What is your risk appetite for the September 2 decision? Economists surveyed by major Canadian banks generally expect the Bank to hold again in September, with a small minority calling for a cut. Fixed rates have been rising independently of Bank decisions, so a September hold does not automatically mean fixed rates stay where they are.
In a market like this week’s, what Razi Khan, Founder and Mortgage Broker at Pegasus typically recommends for a client with a 90-day closing is to secure a rate hold immediately. The hold is free and refundable — optionality at no cost. Waiting without one is a bet that fixed rates will drift lower, which the current bond market is not signalling.
How to secure a rate hold this week
If you have decided to act, the process runs in five short steps.
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1
Gather your documents Two recent pay stubs, a recent T4 or notice of assessment, and confirmation of down-payment funds. A broker can start with less, but the hold becomes firm once the file is documented.
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2
Request a written rate hold Not every pre-approval carries one. Ask for the hold to be documented in writing with its expiry date.
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3
Confirm the length Most Canadian lenders offer 90 to 120 days — long enough to bridge the September 2 decision and give you a window afterward.
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4
Know what invalidates a hold Switching properties, a material change to your income or credit, or extending amortization can all invalidate your quoted rate.
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5
Use the window to shop A hold protects a rate; it does not commit you to that lender. Shop the offer during the hold window rather than just accepting it.
You can start this process online with our Instant Pre-Approval Certificate.
Common mistakes rate-shoppers make this week
Six patterns come up often when Canadians compare advertised rates to what they are being offered:
- Comparing an advertised insured-tier rate to your uninsurable renewal quote — the headline rate rarely applies to renewals or refinances.
- Assuming a 25 basis point Bank of Canada cut in September will move your fixed rate. Fixed rates follow bond yields, not the overnight rate.
- Delaying a pre-approval “until rates settle.” A rate hold is free and refundable.
- Focusing on the headline rate and ignoring prepayment terms — flexible privileges can save thousands if life changes.
- Assuming your existing lender will offer the same discount at renewal as at purchase. They typically do not.
- Signing the mailed renewal offer without shopping the market at least once.
What comes next — the September 2 decision and beyond
The next Bank of Canada rate decision is scheduled for September 2, 2026. Based on public commentary from major-bank economists, the consensus expectation is another hold at 2.25%, with the risk balance tilted toward the Bank staying at the current level for longer rather than cutting sooner.
Two more decisions follow before year-end: October 28, which includes a full Monetary Policy Report, and December 9. Each of these is a potential inflection point for variable rates, and each is far enough out that a 90 to 120 day rate hold secured this week can typically cover at least one of them.
Fixed rates will keep tracking Government of Canada bond yields between Bank decisions, so the direction of fixed pricing may depend as much on inflation data and geopolitical developments as on anything the Bank says or does.
Frequently asked questions
What are mortgage rates in Canada this week?
Did the Bank of Canada change interest rates on July 15?
Should I lock in a fixed mortgage rate now or wait for the next Bank of Canada decision?
What is the best 5-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada right now?
Why are fixed mortgage rates going up when the Bank of Canada is holding?
When is the next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
How long can I hold a mortgage rate in Canada, and does it cost anything?
Why is my renewal rate higher than the advertised rate I see online?
Ready to lock a rate this week?
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About the author
Razi Khan
Founder, CEO & Licensed Mortgage Broker · Pegasus Mortgage Lending · Toronto, Ontario · FSRA Lic # 11479
Razi Khan is the Founder, CEO, and a licensed Mortgage Broker at Pegasus Mortgage Lending Center Inc., based in Toronto. With over 20 years of experience in the Canadian mortgage industry, Razi has personally guided more than 3,000 clients through some of the most complex and high-stakes financial decisions of their lives — from first-time purchases in the GTA to refinancing strategies, alternative lending solutions, and cross-border mortgages for Canadians buying in the United States.
Razi founded Pegasus in October 2008, launching the brokerage at the height of a global financial crisis. He works across the full spectrum of borrower profiles, with particular expertise in complex files including self-employed borrowers, credit-challenged clients, and investors building multi-property portfolios.
Learn more about Razi Khan →Sources & References
- Bank of Canada — Key interest rate history · https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/
- Bank of Canada — 2026 rate announcement schedule · https://www.bankofcanada.ca/press/media-advisories/schedule-policy-interest-rate-announcements/
- Statistics Canada — Consumer Price Index, June 2026 · https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/
- OSFI — Guideline B-20 Residential Mortgage Underwriting · https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/guidance/guidance-library/residential-mortgage-underwriting-practices-procedures-guideline-b-20
- CMHC — Mortgage loan insurance overview · https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/project-funding-and-mortgage-financing/mortgage-loan-insurance
- Ratehub — Best mortgage rates in Canada · https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates
- WOWA — Canadian mortgage rate comparison · https://wowa.ca/mortgage-rates
- Nesto — Best 5-year fixed mortgage rates · https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-rates/fixed/5-year/